Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

[blackcrow]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December Under 2.5 @ 2.81 sportsbet Can see this being a let down game for Man Utd after their big win last week over Man City as they will be expected to win this one quite comfortably. With Vidic back, their defence looks much more solid, and would not be surprised that Ferguson tinkers with this squad as they have a very busy schedule coming up, and looks to keep this team fresh for these games. Certainly they should not have too much to fear from a Sunderland side that though they beat Reading midweek, they lost 3-1 at home to Chelsea last weekend. Expect O'Neill who is still under pressure with rumours swelling around his continued employment as manager, to come into this game very conservatively, and park the bus to look to frustrate Man Utd and hopefully jag a point here. They have been successful in the past in limiting the damage, as they have allowed just five goals in their last 5 meetings with Man Utd, though they have not scored themselves in these games, while going under in each of them. Also they have gone under in 5 of their last 6 meetings at Old Trafford

[Fedar]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

Of course, you are right. If the outcome of every match could be accurately predicted by looking at past stats, it would be easy to make money and everyone would be rich :cigar At the same time, I think it is better to take account of stats than ignore them. And the stats show that in general, Man Utd haven't hammered teams at home and Sunderland haven't been hammered away. Of course the key question is what will happen in this game, not what happened in earlier games ...

I totally agree with you that stats should be also added to the equation, rather than neglected. They are one of the factors, together with those that I numbered. And stats do say that United wins very narrow and tight against Sunderland. Nevertheless, I often use also "counter-logic" in betting. Counter-logic I call when something statistically significant has happened a lot lately while there are many reasonable arguments for it not to happen. Then the counter-logic implies that it is very likely that we get the opposite result soon. For instance, if a team with very good forwards and playing attacking football has registered a great number of "under" games lately (against expectations), I would assume that it is very likely that their next game will be "over". In the case of United-Sunderland, given the huge difference in class, one would expect United to have had much more confident performance and stronger victories than they really got against them in the last seasons. Hence, I believe that so many games without handicap win for United against Sunderland are extraordinary event which has very high likelihood to end soon.

[Jase82]

Nevertheless' date=' I often use also "counter-logic" in betting. Counter-logic I call when something statistically significant has happened a lot lately while there are many reasonable arguments for it not to happen. Then the counter-logic implies that it is very likely that we get the opposite result soon. For instance, if a team with very good forwards and playing attacking football has registered a great number of "under" games lately (against expectations), I would assume that it is very likely that their next game will be "over".[/quote'] Tbh I think that's a bit of a gamblers fallacy really. Especially where sports betting is concerned.

[RIO2014]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December I have decided that this game is a home win and nothing else, whatever it takes to win, Man utd will see this thru. 100 points at 1.22 taken with betfair. GL all

[raedog]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December Sunderland have scored 4 Goals last 3 games away . But have no fear United fans Messrs RVP and Rooney will take care of business . Vidic should settle the back line and Kagawa will help stabilize the midfield . ( check starters ... per usual ) This one could get ugly . Man. U. -2 , +102.5 Bet365 Team Performance , Man. U. Over 100 , +120 Bet365 Half with most Goals , 2nd Half , -105 Bet365 GL Everybody !! .

[Aidymac]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

I have decided that this game is a home win and nothing else, whatever it takes to win, Man utd will see this thru. 100 points at 1.22 taken with betfair. GL all

I wouldn't back United at anything under 1.40 for this match, personally. Even if they win 10-0, i still think 1.22 is a terrible price for a team that is poor in defence that is playing a team with a solid defence off the back of a 3-0 win. Complete mug bet in my opinion, I could find a better 1.22 shot in the next world cup qualifying round IMO. And I am a United supporter. They should be 1.40 at least, IMO.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2248360/Wayne-Rooney-planning-revenge-Sunderland.html http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/sport/football/4698475/Wayne-Rooney-eyes-revenge-mission-against-Sunderland.html

[neilovan]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

I think with this you have to ignore 1X2 ratios that either team may have throughout the season and look at how United perform against bottom ten teams, and how Sunderland perform away to top four. I haven't checked the full stats so I don't know exactly how often United lose to bottom ten sides on average :ok I'd be surprised if its much more than once a season on average.

In the last 6 seasons (including this one) Man United have played 63 games at home at starting odds of 1.3 or less. They have won 56 times with 5 draws and 2 away wins. Draws were against Everton (4-4), WBA (2-2), Sunderland (2-2), Newcastle (1-1) and Reading (0-0) Losses were against Man City (1-2) and Blackburn (2-3) Backing them for 1 unit at home in these 63 games (at average of 1.25) would have resulted in wins of 56 x .25 =14 units and losses of 7 units Nett result is + 7 units which is 11% profit for your investment. So it's a crap price, but because they are so damn good and consistent at home it has potential to make money. Compare to Liverpool Liverpool played 24 won 14 lost 1 drawn 9 You win 3.5 and you lose 10 for a loss of 6.5 units over the same period Compare to Arsenal Arsenal played 37 won 28 lost 4 drawn 5 You win 7 and you lose 9 for a loss of -2 units over the same period Compare to Chelsea Chelsea played 56 won 44 lost 2 drawn 10 You win 11 and you lose 12 for a loss of 1 units over the same period Compare to Barcelona at 1.2 or less Barcelona played 62 won 57 lost 1 drawn 4 You win (57 x 1.16) you win 9.12 and you lose 5 for a win of 4.12 units over the same period So as bad as the odds are , there is a place for betting on united to win here. Obviously you don't want to mix your bets. 2 or 3 teams , both with the same characteristics as United. Big bet like 20 units at 5.6 to 10 also gets you 11.2 units won. ie Man United to win (1.2) and Barcelona to beat A Madrid (1.25) is 5/10 I think United will canter over the line here. This is their time when they go up a gear. Getting Vidic back is a massive boost. Sunderland away at odds of over 10 to 1 Played 15 lost 12 , 2 draws against Man U (15 to 1) and Man city (12 to 1) , and beat Chelsea 3-0 (15 to 1) They have managed to score in 5 games of these 15 being outscored 38 to 12. They have managed to keep a clean sheet once in 15 tries. Really like United to win to nil (mentioned above) 3 units 2-0 is 11/2 3-0 is 6-1 on bet365 If Rooney is taking the penalties then 10/3 for 2 goals or more is also worth a look. He will really be revved up after last seasons finale.

[HeresTheKey]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December My pick is over 3,5 @ 2,15 in sportingbet here. United have 4 games that went over 3,5 in their last 6 matches while Sunderland have 3 matches out of the last 6 that went over 3,5 and 2 that where over 2,5 i know these things mean nothing actually and the game could end an easy 0-0 or 0-1 or 1-0 but at least odds on 2,15 are better than the stupid 1,21 that i can find in united's win on the other hand sunderland is with the back in the wall and i have huge respect for martin o neil so i m not expecting the "parking the bus" strategy specially after a quick goal(before 30') from RVP or Rouney etc. Sunderland scored against Chelsea before one week and i dont rate United's defence better than the Blue team. All in all, just a value bet with small stakes 3/10

[RIO2014]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

I wouldn't back United at anything under 1.40 for this match' date=' personally. Even if they win 10-0, i still think 1.22 is a terrible price for a team that is poor in defence that is playing a team with a solid defence off the back of a 3-0 win. Complete mug bet in my opinion, I could find a better 1.22 shot in the next world cup qualifying round IMO. And I am a United supporter. They should be 1.40 at least, IMO.[/quote'] I here what you are saying, about the odds. But I see a profit here, no more than that, and one thing I have learned... You cant eat Value, Profit puts the eggs in the fridge. My bet is already struck, and I do not see myself reaching for the exit strategy. Man Utd will have the job done here by 90 mins. I know for 1 thing i would rather have it on them, and Man city today, than anything else, Both will get the job done. As for calling me a MUG for backing them(at the price), In such a short time on here my profit and SR with regards to football speaks for itself. GL with your selections.

[Fedar]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December I don't understand the whole fuss about the price of United. As far as I remember, United gets the price range between 1.12 and 1.25 at home against the likes of Sunderland, depending on the form. Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't remember ever Man United being quoted at 1.40 against such teams, even 1.30 is very rare. They get such price against teams like Tottenham, no way against Sunderland. Of course, whether this price is correct or not, I don't judge. All I am saying that this is a normal price for United and it is even closer to the higher end of the range they usually get.

[pg_yid]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

I think with this you have to ignore 1X2 ratios that either team may have throughout the season and look at how United perform against bottom ten teams, and how Sunderland perform away to top four. Or maybe top two as United and City are these days in a little bracket of their own. I haven't got the stats to hand but how often do United lose to bottom ten sides? I'd wager it's not all that often, which is where you should look at the price of 1.20 and say would United win 81% of the time against bottom ten opposition? How many games a season do they lose at home on average. Questions like that, which are more pertinent IMO. Because I don't think looking at games Sunderland have won or lost against equal or lesser :unsure opponents is particularly relevant. I haven't checked the full stats so I don't know exactly how often United lose to bottom ten sides on average :ok I'd be surprised if its much more than once a season on average.

I completely agree with you, this is how I make a starting point for my own odds, by looking at the long term trends. I can't remember the exact figure for United (have it written down somewhere) but their win ratio for bottom ten sides at home was definitely above 80%.

[pg_yid]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

I don't understand the whole fuss about the price of United. As far as I remember, United gets the price range between 1.12 and 1.25 at home against the likes of Sunderland, depending on the form. Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't remember ever Man United being quoted at 1.40 against such teams, even 1.30 is very rare. They get such price against teams like Tottenham, no way against Sunderland. Of course, whether this price is correct or not, I don't judge. All I am saying that this is a normal price for United and it is even closer to the higher end of the range they usually get.

In recent years when we've played United at Old Trafford the price had been around 1.6. You'd have to go back a while to find 1.4 vs Tottenham.

[Reverand_bookmaker]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

The main reasons for this are their fragile defense and Rooney's low confidence after RVP's arrival.

Not sure i agree that Rooney's form has been down to RVP's arrival, Rooney is happiest when playing with world class players, all players have periods of bad form, because of his build when Rooney gets injured it seems to take him a bit longer to regain his fitness. He has also had to drop a lot deeper since Kagawa got injured allowing Hernandez and RVP to reap the benefits. We have scored the most goals in the league scoring 1/3 more than closest rivals city so the problem is not in attack its undoubtedly in defence. United should have plenty of the ball so the back four should be fairly well protected. I dont think its fair to expect Vidic to be back to his best straight away and could see him getting caught against a better attacking side than Sunderland. Although they have scored 10 in their last 6 games so theres a chance they could nick a goal, I can see this ending either 3-0 or 3-1 so odds of evens on the -2 AH seems fair.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

Manchester United-Sunderland AH-2 @1.99 8/10 188bet Manchester United beat their arch-rvials last week in a very quick match fully deserved with 3-2 as van Persie hit the target in the injury time by a free-kick. United were already leading after a Rooney brace and then Young converted a shot from van Persie that hit the post. It was called off as the linesman must have seen an offside positions which wasn't one clearly. The immediate attack from City went it and it was 1-2. Furthermore United didn't got a penalty as Evra was fouled by Kolo Toure in the penalty area. For this match, Vidic will return and this will give United a boost as he is their best defender. The victory over City will give them a boost as well. Another big reason why I'm backing this is the fact that Sunderland celebrated City's championship in the last season when United were playing against Sunderland on the final matchday. They did a Poznan (turning their back on United and celebrating). Rooney said in his book which was published not so long ago: " If there is one team I want to beat this season it will be Sunderland. When fixtures come out I look for 3 games City, Liverpool and Everton. This time I even checked the Sunderland game. I don't know whether I will play the previous games before it, I just want to play against Sunderland". Coach Ferguson said something similar after the City match when they all had dinner at the evening. He said "we won't forget that" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=h0bBsjmtGRE start to watch at 2:00). Sunderland may have won against Reading but Reading are poor and will go down. Sunderland miss captain Cattermole. United will show them that they haven't forgotten the Sunderland's fans reaction. Vidic will be back. The team is hot. Bye bye Black Cats! GL

3:1 void United much better and deserved to win much higer as they missed so many huge chances

[RIO2014]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December NO mug bet Man u, should have been 10. Easy Money this game.

[H1]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

I think United will run easy winners here - they are on a good run, and their confidence is high after beating City - the next game they play is next Sunday so do not have to worry about fatigue - they face relegation candidates, who are also poor travellers - + Rooney in a good shape atm I think United can score a few on Saturday and given the above, Rooney to score & over 3.5 in the game & United win @7 van Persie to score & over 3.5 in the game & United win @6.25 (betvictor) will be my choices and I think it's a good value for what is a >3.5 goals bet in fact

good winners that

[RIO2014]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

good winners that

WD, gret stuff:)

[MPLouis]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

Odds of 1.22 suggest Man Utd have a 1/1.22 = 82% chance of winning ... it's fair to say their Utd's chance of winning should be higher than average' date=' and therefore higher than 61.7% but are they higher than 82%? That's what they need to be to make Utd a good bet at 1.22.[/quote'] I looked back at United's home record, and as a few others have said, they actually have an AMAZING home record - it's just win after win after win. The odd defeat or draw is usually against a top side, not a bottom one - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/12/15/england/premier-league/manchester-united-fc/sunderland-association-football-club/1293843/ So in hindsight, they probably have a higher than 82% chances of beating a bottom 10 side at home. Of course, you don't get points for past results, but you just can't ignore United's consistently successful home record. It's strange to think of a 1.22 bet (82% chance) as 'good value' but if they actually have a 90% + chance of winning, then it actually is good value. I listened to the game on BBC Radio Five Live, and it sounded as though the 3-1 win was well deserved. Congratulations to all who took the straight win :ok

[blackcrow]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

Under 2.5 @ 2.81 :eyes

O'Shea (Mmmmmm) gifts Utd the opener and from there, the under was in trouble. Some really poor defending for their 3rd goal also as van Persie easily sliced through two defenders to set up Rooney. 45-89 (-28.87)

[UnitedForever]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

O'Shea (Mmmmmm) gifts Utd the opener and from there, the under was in trouble. Some really poor defending for their 3rd goal also as van Persie easily sliced through two defenders to set up Rooney. 45-89 (-28.87)

For that odds it's worth taking the risk...

[RedDevil92]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December Under 2.5 was far away from winning. United had several more huge chances to score.