Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn]Manchester United v Sunderland (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]19[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.55 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Mustafa]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December The Red Devils have a good record against Sunderland, winning 8 out of the last 10 games against them. At Old Trafford they have won 4 out of the last 5 games against Sunderland without conceding a goal and these 4 games, winning 3 times 1-0 and once 2-0. Moreover, they have not conceded against Sunderland in the last 5 games (both home and away). They have won 4 out of these 5 games and in all 4 games were leading at half time. I am leaning towards Man.United 2-0, so my suggested bets here are: Man.United HT/FT @ 1.57 Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.61 Man.United to win to nil @ 1.95 All prices with William Hill

[IAmGooner]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December You'd fear for Sunderland here, they look dreadful atm, devoid of confidence, manager under pressure, limp in attack, and easily breached at the other end. Home win for sure in my view, just depends whether Sunderland can dig their heels in and limit the damage. Another potential bet might be Rooney anytime/first scorer as he tends to score in patches and he's on one right now after scoring two at Reading and City.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December After that performance against City, United will have the boost to destroy Sunderland and to improve their goal difference. Vidic is expected to be back and also Kagawa could be in the squad as both are training for 1 and 2 week(s) respectively. Defence should play like against City and Sunderland won't have many chances. United will score freely, can easily see them scoring 3-4 goals here with so many potential goal scorers. Rooney is in form having produced a brace in each of their last 2 matches. Van Persie can hit the goal anytime even if he plays poorly. Young did very well and also de Gea had not a single poor action against City showing some huge saves.

[UnitedForever]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

After that performance against City' date=' United will have the boost to destroy Sunderland and to improve their goal difference. Vidic is expected to be back and also Kagawa could be in the squad as both are training for 1 and 2 week(s) respectively. Defence should play like against City and Sunderland won't have many chances. United will score freely, can easily see them scoring 3-4 goals here with so many potential goal scorers. Rooney is in form having produced a brace in each of their last 2 matches. Van Persie can hit the goal anytime even if he plays poorly. Young did very well and also de Gea had not a single poor action against City showing some huge saves.[/quote'] That's right! 100% agree with you. If Vidic will be back for this then United to win to nil is a really good bet. With the problems that Sunderland have atm United can simply destroy them. It's about time United can start improving their goals difference and against a poor Sunderland side I can see United scoring at least 4 goals. I will come back with the prices.

[Aidymac]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

After that performance against City' date=' United will have the boost to destroy Sunderland and to improve their goal difference. Vidic is expected to be back and also Kagawa could be in the squad as both are training for 1 and 2 week(s) respectively. Defence should play like against City and Sunderland won't have many chances. United will score freely, can easily see them scoring 3-4 goals here with so many potential goal scorers. Rooney is in form having produced a brace in each of their last 2 matches. Van Persie can hit the goal anytime even if he plays poorly. Young did very well and also de Gea had not a single poor action against City showing some huge saves.[/quote'] De Gea made some brilliant saves, but his performance was still not flawless in my opinion. Several times, the ball was played in over the top, and he would not leave his line to help his defence, to get balls he would easily have picked up. Instead, it put pressure on the defenders to deal with it, this is something he has to work on, one keeper that is brilliant at reading situations like that is Pepe Reina. De Gea needs to be standing near the penalty spot when the ball is in the opposing half, not on his line.

[Alexc]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December I remember Rooney saying he ''wouldn't forget'' the Sunderland fans taunts on the last day of the season, which Sunderland fans are probably regretting right now :lol

[RedDevil92]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

I remember Rooney saying he ''wouldn't forget'' the Sunderland fans taunts on the last day of the season' date=' which Sunderland fans are probably regretting right now :lol[/quote'] Yes, they won therer at the last matchday and Sunderland fans were celebrating City's victory over QPR.

[MPLouis]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December Sunderland at 17.0 - are they that bad? After tonight's 3-0 win, I think that price is looking a bit long, and Man United short at 1.22.

[supplanter]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December Man United at 1.22 horrible price but I might put on money on it anyways

[Aidymac]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

Man United at 1.22 horrible price but I might put on money on it anyways

:$ That sentence sums up the completely wrong way to gamble mate. If it is a horrible price, you don't back it.

[jeanpaulg]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December Vidic 100% playing... Asian HDC look nice..

[MPLouis]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

:$ That sentence sums up the completely wrong way to gamble mate. If it is a horrible price' date=' you don't back it.[/quote'] Or alternatively, you back the other side?

[Aidymac]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

Or alternatively' date=' you back the other side?[/quote'] Exactly. If United are way too short, that means Sunderland have to be too long, it makes logical sense to take Sunderland on the handicap possibly.

[RIO2014]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December We sometimes try and look for better appealing odds, and there is nothing wrong with that, but here you have 2 or 3 choices. 1 you can leave the game alone. 2 You can back Man Utd at a 20% yeild 3 Put Man utd in your doubles trebles etc. If you bet in the thousands, then 5k to win 1k, is not that bad, depending or your risk, But all stats are in your favor. Do you beleive Man utd are a coupon buster?, but for the extra kick up the ladder, you might like it. I for 1 dont see any problem in backing Man Utd here, They will win and by some IMO, Sunderland Cannot stop them scoring, and after last week, they will no make any mistakes here. For a small stake, Backing rooney and/or Van P, to score a hat trick, might reap some reward for a small outlay.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December Manchester United-Sunderland AH-2 @1.99 8/10 188bet Manchester United beat their arch-rvials last week in a very quick match fully deserved with 3-2 as van Persie hit the target in the injury time by a free-kick. United were already leading after a Rooney brace and then Young converted a shot from van Persie that hit the post. It was called off as the linesman must have seen an offside positions which wasn't one clearly. The immediate attack from City went it and it was 1-2. Furthermore United didn't got a penalty as Evra was fouled by Kolo Toure in the penalty area. For this match, Vidic will return and this will give United a boost as he is their best defender. The victory over City will give them a boost as well. Another big reason why I'm backing this is the fact that Sunderland celebrated City's championship in the last season when United were playing against Sunderland on the final matchday. They did a Poznan (turning their back on United and celebrating). Rooney said in his book which was published not so long ago: " If there is one team I want to beat this season it will be Sunderland. When fixtures come out I look for 3 games City, Liverpool and Everton. This time I even checked the Sunderland game. I don't know whether I will play the previous games before it, I just want to play against Sunderland". Coach Ferguson said something similar after the City match when they all had dinner at the evening. He said "we won't forget that" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=h0bBsjmtGRE start to watch at 2:00). Sunderland may have won against Reading but Reading are poor and will go down. Sunderland miss captain Cattermole. United will show them that they haven't forgotten the Sunderland's fans reaction. Vidic will be back. The team is hot. Bye bye Black Cats! GL

[Lordoftheonionrings]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

Manchester United-Sunderland AH-2 @1.99 8/10 188bet Manchester United beat their arch-rvials last week in a very quick match fully deserved with 3-2 as van Persie hit the target in the injury time by a free-kick. United were already leading after a Rooney brace and then Young converted a shot from van Persie that hit the post. It was called off as the linesman must have seen an offside positions which wasn't one clearly. The immediate attack from City went it and it was 1-2. Furthermore United didn't got a penalty as Evra was fouled by Kolo Toure in the penalty area. For this match, Vidic will return and this will give United a boost as he is their best defender. The victory over City will give them a boost as well. Another big reason why I'm backing this is the fact that Sunderland celebrated City's championship in the last season when United were playing against Sunderland on the final matchday. They did a Poznan (turning their back on United and celebrating). Rooney said in his book which was published not so long ago: " If there is one team I want to beat this season it will be Sunderland. When fixtures come out I look for 3 games City, Liverpool and Everton. This time I even checked the Sunderland game. I don't know whether I will play the previous games before it, I just want to play against Sunderland". Coach Ferguson said something similar after the City match when they all had dinner at the evening. He said "we won't forget that" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=h0bBsjmtGRE start to watch at 2:00). Sunderland may have won against Reading but Reading are poor and will go down. Sunderland miss captain Cattermole. United will show them that they haven't forgotten the Sunderland's fans reaction. Vidic will be back. The team is hot. Bye bye Black Cats! GL

Taking all that into account I'll take Utd -2 2.4 (7/5) and correct score 3-0 8.0 (7/1) and 4-0 11.0 (10/1). I think Sunderland could be in for a hiding but I do think it's a bit silly Ferguson and Rooney taking such offense because the Sunderland fans celebrated with the "poznan" when City won the league. They would have done it to any team who suffered the same consequences and it was done purely to wind United up. Which worked it seems. Still, anything for a bit of extra motivation.

[pg_yid]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

Taking all that into account I'll take Utd -2 2.4 (7/5) and correct score 3-0 8.0 (7/1) and 4-0 11.0 (10/1). I think Sunderland could be in for a hiding but I do think it's a bit silly Ferguson and Rooney taking such offense because the Sunderland fans celebrated with the "poznan" when City won the league. They would have done it to any team who suffered the same consequences and it was done purely to wind United up. Which worked it seems. Still' date=' anything for a bit of extra motivation.[/quote'] I agree, I remember when we were playing Birmingham on the last day of the season (when they went down) we were cheering the results of their relegation rivals and taking the piss. It was just banter. At the end of the game we applauded them for their excellent support that day and sang "you beat the scum 2-1" referring to their league cup win and "Thursday night, Channel 5" which was a joke because we had also qualified for the Europa League. I imagine if Sunderland had been playing City and City had lost the league they would have done the Poznan to them too. Back on topic...I backed United in this game before Sunderland's game against Reading @ 1.25 because I thought it was a good price and wouldn't last, which turned out to be true. After Sunderland's win against Reading I'm having slight doubts about this, but I think I'm just worrying for nothing. I known Reading are a poor side but at the same time I think Sunderland can frustrate teams if they play with confidence, and they might be feeling more confident after a 3-0 win. Even so, United should have too much for them. They don't seem to have trouble breaking teams down at the moment with their attacking players on offer.

[MPLouis]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

all stats are in your favor.

Odds of 1.22 suggest Man Utd have a 1/1.22 = 82% chance of winning. Man Utd have won 6 of their 7 home games (86%). Sunderland have lost 3 of their 8 away games (37.5%). http://uk.soccerway.com/national/england/premier-league/20122013/regular-season/ If you take an average of those two percentages - you get 123.5/2 = 61.7%. So you could argue that Man Utd have a 61.7% chance of winning. Man Utd are rated better than most of Sunderland's opponents and Sunderland are worse than most of Man Utd's opponents, so it's fair to say their Utd's chance of winning should be higher than average, and therefore higher than 61.7% but are they higher than 82%? That's what they need to be to make Utd a good bet at 1.22.

[H1]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December I think United will run easy winners here - they are on a good run, and their confidence is high after beating City - the next game they play is next Sunday so do not have to worry about fatigue - they face relegation candidates, who are also poor travellers - + Rooney in a good shape atm I think United can score a few on Saturday and given the above, Rooney to score & over 3.5 in the game & United win @7 van Persie to score & over 3.5 in the game & United win @6.25 (betvictor) will be my choices and I think it's a good value for what is a >3.5 goals bet in fact

[MPLouis]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

Manchester United-Sunderland AH-2 @1.99 8/10 188bet

Premier League season to date: Man Utd goals scored/conceded at home: 19/9 Sunderland goals scored/conceded away: 8/11 http://uk.soccerway.com/national/england/premier-league/20122013/regular-season/ Man Utd tend not to thrash teams at home, and Sunderland don't get thrashed away. Man Utd are top of the table and Sunderland near the bottom, but I'm still not sure Man Utd AH-2 @ around evens is good value.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December United are hungry to get quite often on the scoresheet as they bid to punish Sunderland for the last season. They are on fire after beating City fully deserved. Sunderland have only beaten Reading and are not a big threat up front, as they don't have many goal threatening players unlike United who have several players being dangerous for opponent's defences. Kagawa should be back as well leaving United without just 2 players, Anderson and Nani and the latter one wouldn't play even if he was fit as he will get sold in january.

[ElkHunter]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December I can't really say much here that RIO hasn't already said - think his post hits the nail on the head. I can't see United not winning and fully expect RVP to find the back of the net at least once. Personally can't see enough value in the handicaps or HT/FT and FT odds are in to 1.2 so will add this one into a multiple to help put a bit more food on the table.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December United will win, I suspect clearing a -2AH might be tough however, just a gut feeling. I dont see Sunderland showing much adventure, damage limitation from the off IMO, winning by 3 goals is quite the ask. Best of luck.

[Fedar]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

Premier League season to date: Man Utd goals scored/conceded at home: 19/9 Sunderland goals scored/conceded away: 8/11 http://uk.soccerway.com/national/england/premier-league/20122013/regular-season/ Man Utd tend not to thrash teams at home, and Sunderland don't get thrashed away. Man Utd are top of the table and Sunderland near the bottom, but I'm still not sure Man Utd AH-2 @ around evens is good value.

I am not quite sure this statistical approach works very well. Every game has its specific complexion - motivation, match-up between two teams, exhaustion factor, injured players, current form, stage of the tournament, sometimes even weather and time of the day have a say. So pure stats might be so misleading. For instance, Real Madrid B (playing in Segunda) was one of the team with highest scoring games in Europe in the first 2-3 months of the season. If you were looking at pure stats then, you would take "over 2.5" for granted and you would often pick "over 3.5". However, just lately they got three games with less than 2 goals scored ("little under") in a very short period of time. Then immediately after these, they scored 4 goals at home. Really hard to read the numbers. Besides, behind every score in the stat there is some story. Having watched most of United games, I think I get some sense of the story behind most of them. It is true United doesn't reach easily handicaps at home this season. The main reasons for this are their fragile defense and Rooney's low confidence after RVP's arrival. Feeling vulnerable in defense, United do not really rush in the last 20-30 minutes to get another goal when they have a one-goal lead. Typical example was the West Ham game, when after WH started putting more men forward after the 60th minute and practically every high ball looked dangerous in United's penatly area, the Devils chose to play it safer and not commit many people forward. While, in previous seasons they will always try to extend the lead against these kinds of opponents. Also, Rooney poor form has almost always been in correlation with United's poor form. He need time to settle with RVP up-front. This was also an important factor to prevent handicaps. However, I have all reasons to believe that Rooney is finally finding his form, and United have shown signs of defensive improvement. When I match this with Sunderland's poor offensive record, I have the feeling that home handicap is the way to go here. Moreover, what Reddevil mentioned about United special motivation is something that should be considered very seriously. SAF is a very weird personality and we all know that he is revengeful with regards to such things. I bet that he pointed out this provocation by Sunderland's supporters many times during the analysis of this game in the dressing room.

[overthefence]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December Man Utd have looked In my opinion very poor this season and defensive fatalities have been there for all to see with I believe an average of 1.5 goals conceeded at home per game and 2.0 away. i went to see them against QPR when they won 3-1 but the space that QPR were awarded was criminal, however thanks to the strike force they have they seem to get out of jail all the time. A great result last week but one where they stole the lead and commanded the game for 45 minutes but folder in the second half once city had made the correct personnel changes. Sunderland are a strange team whom in reality have strengthened from last season but something is missing, a good win in the week but one swallow and all that and it was only reading. the price on Man Utd looks very skinny and Sunderland on the handicap looks a possibility but recent form prior to Tuesday does out me off. no bet

[RedDevil92]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December Johnson and Rose are both doubts for Sunderland.

[MPLouis]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

I am not quite sure this statistical approach works very well. Every game has its specific complexion - motivation' date=' match-up between two teams, exhaustion factor, injured players, current form, stage of the tournament, sometimes even weather and time of the day have a say. So pure stats might be so misleading[/quote'] Of course, you are right. If the outcome of every match could be accurately predicted by looking at past stats, it would be easy to make money and everyone would be rich :cigar At the same time, I think it is better to take account of stats than ignore them. And the stats show that in general, Man Utd haven't hammered teams at home and Sunderland haven't been hammered away. Of course the key question is what will happen in this game, not what happened in earlier games ...

[Jase82]

Odds of 1.22 suggest Man Utd have a 1/1.22 = 82% chance of winning. Man Utd have won 6 of their 7 home games (86%). Sunderland have lost 3 of their 8 away games (37.5%). http://uk.soccerway.com/national/england/premier-league/20122013/regular-season/ If you take an average of those two percentages - you get 123.5/2 = 61.7%. So you could argue that Man Utd have a 61.7% chance of winning. Man Utd are rated better than most of Sunderland's opponents and Sunderland are worse than most of Man Utd's opponents, so it's fair to say their Utd's chance of winning should be higher than average, and therefore higher than 61.7% but are they higher than 82%? That's what they need to be to make Utd a good bet at 1.22.

I think with this you have to ignore 1X2 ratios that either team may have throughout the season and look at how United perform against bottom ten teams, and how Sunderland perform away to top four. Or maybe top two as United and City are these days in a little bracket of their own. I haven't got the stats to hand but how often do United lose to bottom ten sides? I'd wager it's not all that often, which is where you should look at the price of 1.20 and say would United win 81% of the time against bottom ten opposition? How many games a season do they lose at home on average. Questions like that, which are more pertinent IMO. Because I don't think looking at games Sunderland have won or lost against equal or lesser :unsure opponents is particularly relevant. I haven't checked the full stats so I don't know exactly how often United lose to bottom ten sides on average :ok I'd be surprised if its much more than once a season on average.

[MPLouis]

Re: Manchester United v Sunderland > Sat 15th December

I haven't got the stats to hand but how often do United lose to bottom ten sides?

Great points Jase - and I agree. I think the right question is how often to United fail to beat (i.e. draw or lose to) bottom ten sides at home (because we're talking about the odds on the United win).