giraldi Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 48. Fra2. Caen - Charmois Draw @ 3.64 (33.19%) 49. Fra2. Le Mans - Chateauroux Draw @ 3.17 (41.52%) 50. Fra2. Tours - Dijon Draw @ 3.30 (33.65%) 51. Fra2. Caen - Charmois Under 2.5 @ 1.75 (75.83%) Only 1 out of 4 and -2.25 units. I still have around 9 units profit and good yield for January. My system proposed for today: 52. Eng2. Sheffield - Wolves Over 2.5 @ 2.06 (58.90%) 53. Eng2. Ipswich - Barnsley Over 2.5 @ 1.89 (56.00%) 54. Eng2. Birmingham - Brighton Over 2.5 @ 2.14 (57.63%) 55. Eng3. Doncaster - Leyton Over 2.5 @ 2.02 (55.93%) 56. Eng3. Notts - Sheffield Sheffield @ 2.62 (47.73%) 57. Spa2. Guadalajara - Alcoron Draw @ 3.20 (33.76%) 58. Spa2. Sabadell - Girona Draw @ 3.22 (33.63%) 59. Spa2. RM Castilla - Villarreal Draw @ 3.67 (36.00%) 60. Fra1. Sochaux - Reims Over 2.5 @ 2.39 (52.96%) 61. Fra1. Marseille - Maontpelier Draw @ 3.42 (33.33%) Thank you f0r3st727 ! :ok Of course I knew that. I wanted just kidding. It seems that nothing I do well in this thread ( except 30 units and 15% yield starting with 1st December ):D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
plinge Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Hi Giraldi, Congrats on your profitability thus far. Out of curiosity, what percentage do you have Sheffield at? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Hi Giraldi' date=' Congrats on your profitability thus far. Out of curiosity, what percentage do you have Sheffield at?[/quote'] Thank you plinge, I changed the posting and I wrote the probabilities given by my system, as usual. I thought my probabilities are useful only to me and I've not written today. Now on I will mention the probabilities and maybe the trust my system has on that probability. As I have already said I don-t get all it gives me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted January 20, 2013 Author Share Posted January 20, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 52. Eng2. Sheffield - Wolves Over 2.5 @ 2.06 (58.90%) 53. Eng2. Ipswich - Barnsley Over 2.5 @ 1.89 (56.00%) 54. Eng2. Birmingham - Brighton Over 2.5 @ 2.14 (57.63%) 55. Eng3. Doncaster - Leyton Over 2.5 @ 2.02 (55.93%) 56. Eng3. Notts - Sheffield Sheffield @ 2.62 (47.73%) 57. Spa2. Guadalajara - Alcoron Draw @ 3.20 (33.76%) 58. Spa2. Sabadell - Girona Draw @ 3.22 (33.63%) 59. Spa2. RM Castilla - Villarreal Draw @ 3.67 (36.00%) 60. Fra1. Sochaux - Reims Over 2.5 @ 2.39 (52.96%) 61. Fra1. Marseille - Maontpelier Draw @ 3.42 (33.33%) Like any gambler who relies on statistics I was expecting a day like yesterday results. I lost 7.86 units. The biggest loss since I started this project. Yet I would considered something normal in terms of statistics and I am not going to change something. The positive side is that I have good profit in January and I still have little profit following yesterday "performance". As a real professional player, I wipe the blood from the face, I stood up, I shake the dust and make the next bet :) 62. Eng1. Tottenham - Man Utd. Draw @ 3.71 (44.36%) 63. Ita1. Atalanta - Cagliari Atalanta @ 2.16 (57.92%) 64. Ita1. Siena - Sampdoria Draw @ 3.17 (46.84%) 65. Spa2. Hercules - Lugo Draw @ 3.28 (35.25%) 66. Spa2. Ponferradina - Elche Draw @ 3.16 (34.92%) 67. Fra1. Bastia - Rennes Draw @ 3.45 (31.57%) 68. Fra1. Bordeaux - PSG Draw @ 3.24 (38.12%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted January 20, 2013 Share Posted January 20, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Hi bro, I am really impressed to see what you wrote today. I was curious how you would react after I checked your results yesterday. I was concerned that you would be depressed or discouraged. But now, you really handled it professionally. I think you have +11.55% yield after 312 picks and it is what matters. If one is reasonable about betting and bets 1% of bankroll per game, this kind of ugly days can't hurt him. I won only 4 out of 15 bets on total I had yesterday so I am down even more. Maybe it is this crazy snowy wheather we did not factor in, or maybe just some random deviation from norm. It happens. Exactly, lets "wipe the blood, stand up, shake the dust" and make some bets for today! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Thanks Zbrochu, To be honest here I faked a little. After the disaster on Saturday my wife sleeps at her mother, my daughter still is locked in her room without food or water and the pet (see the avatar) was not returned home after I threw it out the window :lol :lol Here is one of my favorite quotes from the "Art of war" "A good general make sure first that it cannot be beaten and then waiting for the mistake of the opponent." I passed the time when I was playing the whole Bank, cannot be beaten into a few weeks like the one on Saturday. So, does it matter that I have a good profit and a yield over 11% since the beginning of the strategy. In any case after the disaster on Saturday, yesterday was a great performance -0.13 units. 62. Eng1. Tottenham - Man Utd. Draw @ 3.71 (44.36%) 63. Ita1. Atalanta - Cagliari Atalanta @ 2.16 (57.92%) 64. Ita1. Siena - Sampdoria Draw @ 3.17 (46.84%) 65. Spa2. Hercules - Lugo Draw @ 3.28 (35.25%) 66. Spa2. Ponferradina - Elche Draw @ 3.16 (34.92%) 67. Fra1. Bastia - Rennes Draw @ 3.45 (31.57%) 68. Fra1. Bordeaux - PSG Draw @ 3.24 (38.12%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted January 21, 2013 Author Share Posted January 21, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system My system selection for today: 69. Fra2. Guingamp - Angers Draw @ 3.27 (33.88%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted January 22, 2013 Author Share Posted January 22, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system My system selection for today: 69. Fra2. Guingamp - Angers Draw @ 3.27 (33.88%) The last game has been postponed. Today I try 69. Eng2. Blackburn - Brighton Over 2.5 @ 1.97 (76.14%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 69. Eng2. Blackburn - Brighton Over 2.5 @ 1.97 (76.14%) I have now 0.19 units profit this month. Still good profit :D After a 25-day journey and 70 bets I got in the place where I started I think I have managed to prove that not only the Earth but also the bets are round. :D Today I try 70. Fra2. Angers - Arles Draw @ 3.34 (36.93%) 71. Fra2. Nantes - Tours Draw @ 3.59 (31.51%) Tonight I know if I will turn to the dark side of bets. I was there before and I am a little bit afraid because the dark side is very strong. :D Like Homer Simpson said “I'm not normally a praying man, but if you're up there, please save me, Superman!†:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 70. Fra2. Angers - Arles Draw @ 3.34 (36.93%) 71. Fra2. Nantes - Tours Draw @ 3.59 (31.51%) It looks like Superman has no time for me so I have to handle it alone :) Both bets lost and for the first time this month - 1.91 units. Still decent. Considering last 25 bets I won only 4. Let-s think positive Could be worst. To won none. On the other hand I noticed a very big advantage to lost many bets in a row. It is very easy to make it red all together - just few clicks. Not necessary to select red, green, red, green. Boring. :) For today 72. Eng3. Colchester - Walsall Walsall @ 2.57 (44.54%) 73. Eng3. Portsmouth - Hartlepool Hartlepool @ 2.78 (45.90%) 74. Eng3. Preston- Coventry Coventry @ 3.03 (48.45%) 75. Eng3. Shrewsbury - Bury Over 2.5 @ 2.03 (59.67%) 76. Ita1. Lazio - Chievo Over 2.5 @ 2.12 (53.48%) 77. Ita2. Padova - Livorno Livorno @2.82 (41.94%) 78. Ita2. Vercelli - Reggina Reggina @ 2.95 (53.65%) 79. Ita2. Spezia - Verona Verona @ 2.69 (40.10%) 80. Spa1. Celta Vigo - Sociedad Sociedad @ 3.4 (36.64%) 81. Spa2. Girona - Guadalajara Draw @ 3.62 (35.21%) 82. Spa2. Lugo - Las Palmas Draw @ 3.27 (33.14%) 83. Spa2. Santander - Cordoba Draw @ 3.24 (33.21%) 84. Spa2. Elche - Hercules Over 2.5 @ 2.09 (67.57%) 85. Fra2. Monaco - Guincamp Draw @ 3.37 (31.54%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 72. Eng3. Colchester - Walsall Walsall @ 2.57 (44.54%) 73. Eng3. Portsmouth - Hartlepool Hartlepool @ 2.78 (45.90%) 74. Eng3. Preston- Coventry Coventry @ 3.03 (48.45%) 75. Eng3. Shrewsbury - Bury Over 2.5 @ 2.03 (59.67%) 76. Ita1. Lazio - Chievo Over 2.5 @ 2.12 (53.48%) 77. Ita2. Padova - Livorno Livorno @2.82 (41.94%) 78. Ita2. Vercelli - Reggina Reggina @ 2.95 (53.65%) 79. Ita2. Spezia - Verona Verona @ 2.69 (40.10%) 80. Spa1. Celta Vigo - Sociedad Sociedad @ 3.4 (36.64%) 81. Spa2. Girona - Guadalajara Draw @ 3.62 (35.21%) 82. Spa2. Lugo - Las Palmas Draw @ 3.27 (33.14%) 83. Spa2. Santander - Cordoba Draw @ 3.24 (33.21%) 84. Spa2. Elche - Hercules Over 2.5 @ 2.09 (67.57%) 85. Fra2. Monaco - Guincamp Draw @ 3.37 (31.54%) So far I got serious loss in January. -6.97 units. The fall was too quick, almost 20 units in 10 days to blame it on the system, so I will not change anything. After all I have still profit since I started. All I can hope for in January is to reduce losses 86. Ita1. Catania - Fiorentina Catania @ 3.26 (50.29%) 87. Ita1. Sampdoria - Pescara Draw @ 3.84 (50.22%) 88. Ita1. Atalanta - Milan Over 2.5 @ 2.07 (53.08%) 89. Ita1. Parma - Napoli Over 2.5 @ 2.08 (50.80%) 90. Ita1. Udinese - Siena Over 2.5 @ 2.02 (51.87%) 91. Spa2. Xerez - Almeria Draw @ 3.29 (35.12%) 92. Fra1. Nice - Bordeaux Draw @ 3.18 (33.69%) Without any connection with my strategy. Last year I was thinking about a prank for one of my friend, also deeply involved in betting (much more than me). The idea is to redirect his live scores site to a new site, manipulated by another friend.( His younger brother has access to his computer and is willing to join us anytime) I can not imagine his face when he will lose all the game, one by one, after "all green" on 89 minute.:lol I am still thinking of that. He deserves it for sure. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 86. Ita1. Catania - Fiorentina Catania @ 3.26 (50.29%) 87. Ita1. Sampdoria - Pescara Draw @ 3.84 (50.22%) 88. Ita1. Atalanta - Milan Over 2.5 @ 2.07 (53.08%) 89. Ita1. Parma - Napoli Over 2.5 @ 2.08 (50.80%) 90. Ita1. Udinese - Siena Over 2.5 @ 2.02 (51.87%) 91. Spa2. Xerez - Almeria Draw @ 3.29 (35.12%) 92. Fra1. Nice - Bordeaux Draw @ 3.18 (33.69%) 1.66 units lost and for January total is -8.63 units. It would be too good to be so bad my system because that would mean that the "Lay giraldi" system would be a kind of magic system. I hope it is about very bad period, of course followed by a very good period. :) Today I try 93. Spa1. Sevilla- Granada Under 2.5 @ 2.12 (58.91%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Lost last one and the better thing about January - it is over. Finally I decided to not consider November, very good month with +19 units, only just to see myself a lower profit so to be more motivated :D Anyway I don-t consider the fall from +12 to -10 units on 12 days this month something normal but only a direct hit of Goddess of probabilities. Before next monthly attempt: December 19.23 units 13.63% January -9.63 units -10.35% Total 9.6 units +4,1% For today 1. Eng1. West Ham - Swansea Draw @ 3.40 (44.90%) 2. Eng2. Sheffield - Brighton Over 2.5 @ 2.17 (52.26%) 3. Eng3. MK Dons - Bournemouth Bournemouth @ 2.85 (44.12%) 4. Ita1. Torino - Sampdoria Torino @ 2.09 (55.30%) 5. Ita1. Torino - Sampdoria Over 2.5 @ 2.36 (49.59%) 6. Spa2. Las Palmas - Elche Draw @ 3.21 (36.04%) 7. Ger1. Hoffenheim - Freiburg Freiburg @ 2.80 (47.60%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 1. Eng1. West Ham - Swansea Draw @ 3.40 (44.90%) 2. Eng2. Sheffield - Brighton Over 2.5 @ 2.17 (52.26%) 3. Eng3. MK Dons - Bournemouth Bournemouth @ 2.85 (44.12%) 4. Ita1. Torino - Sampdoria Torino @ 2.09 (55.30%) 5. Ita1. Torino - Sampdoria Over 2.5 @ 2.36 (49.59%) 6. Spa2. Las Palmas - Elche Draw @ 3.21 (36.04%) 7. Ger1. Hoffenheim - Freiburg Freiburg @ 2.80 (47.60%) +1.23 units for the first attempt on February For today, I have changed the style but "the engine" is the same 8. Ang1. Manchester City - Liverpool Manchester City AH(-1) @ 2.58 9. Ita1. Palermo - Atalanta Draw @ 3.33 10. Ita1. Pescara - Bologna Draw @ 3.34 11. Ita1. Milan - Udinese Udinese AH(+0.5) @ 2.78 12. Spa1. Sevilla - Vallecano Under 2.5 @ 2.28 13. Spa1. At. Madrid - Betis Betis AH(+1) @ 2.31 14. Ger1. Nurnberg - Borussia Borussia AH(0) @ 2.27 15. Ger2. Jahn - Hertha Hertha AH(-1.5) @ 2.66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 8. Ang1. Manchester City - Liverpool Manchester City AH(-1) @ 2.58 9. Ita1. Palermo - Atalanta Draw @ 3.33 10. Ita1. Pescara - Bologna Draw @ 3.34 11. Ita1. Milan - Udinese Udinese AH(+0.5) @ 2.78 12. Spa1. Sevilla - Vallecano Under 2.5 @ 2.28 13. Spa1. At. Madrid - Betis Betis AH(+1) @ 2.31 14. Ger1. Nurnberg - Borussia Borussia AH(0) @ 2.27 15. Ger2. Jahn - Hertha Hertha AH(-1.5) @ 2.66 Again, it was very easy to color results, just few clicks. I have already put red color as the default font color :lol Nothing to say.. -3.11 units on February. For today 16. Ger2. TSV Munchen - Kaiserslautern TSV Munchen AH(0) @ 2.26 17. Eng4. Gillingham - Wycombe Wycombe AH(+0.5) @ 2.50 18. Spa2. RM Castilla - Almeria Under 2.5 @ 2.32 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 16. Ger2. TSV Munchen - Kaiserslautern TSV Munchen AH(0) @ 2.26 17. Eng4. Gillingham - Wycombe Wycombe AH(+0.5) @ 2.50 18. Spa2. RM Castilla - Almeria Under 2.5 @ 2.32 "Very good results" again and I felt the need to take a break. Today I am back, very calm, and I am ready to face higher losses :cigar My selections for today 19. Eng2. Watford - Crystal Palace Watford AH(-0.5) @ 2.02 20. Fra2. Ajaccio - Dijon Ajjaccio AH(-0.5) @ 2.27 21. Fra2. Ajaccio - Dijon Ajjaccio Over 2.5 @ 2.30 22. Fra2. Chamois - Istres Chamois AH(-0.5) @ 2.25 22. Fra2. Chamois - Istres Over 2.5 @ 2.59 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Today I am back, very calm, and I am ready to face higher losses :cigar 19. Eng2. Watford - Crystal Palace Watford AH(-0.5) @ 2.02 20. Fra2. Ajaccio - Dijon Ajjaccio AH(-0.5) @ 2.27 21. Fra2. Ajaccio - Dijon Ajjaccio Over 2.5 @ 2.30 22. Fra2. Chamois - Istres Chamois AH(-0.5) @ 2.25 22. Fra2. Chamois - Istres Over 2.5 @ 2.59 Ar least I was ready to face higher losses :) Start to think that I am caught with "candid camera" :) I did not have so poor period since I started to bet, many years ago. Still I keep calm but I don't know how much longer I can :@ In any case it is very clear that I have to be very cautious during this period. For today 23. Ang1. Sunderland - Arsenal Sunderland AH(+0.5) @ 2.10 24. Ang2. Peterborough - Leicester Peterborough AH(+0.5) @ 2.23 25. Ang3. Shrewsbury - Sheffield Shrewsbury AH(+0.25) @ 1.98 26. Ang3. Carlisie - Stevenage Stevenage AH(+0.25) @ 1.96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 23. Ang1. Sunderland - Arsenal Sunderland AH(+0.5) @ 2.10 24. Ang2. Peterborough - Leicester Peterborough AH(+0.5) @ 2.23 25. Ang3. Shrewsbury - Sheffield Shrewsbury AH(+0.25) @ 1.98 26. Ang3. Carlisie - Stevenage Stevenage AH(+0.25) @ 1.96 10.38 units lost this month. I don-t believe my rating is so bad suddenly. Due to my system I spent less time with my puppy (see the avatar). They say that a dog is as smart as the owner so I think it is possible to be shoved his paw and have changed something in my software program. I'll check this out. For today 27/ Ita1. Palermo - Pescara Pescara AH(+0.5) @ 2.73 28. Ita1. Inter - Chievo Chievo AH(+0.5) @ 2.5 29. Spa1. Vallecano - Atl Madrid Vallecano @ 3.58 30. Fra1. Rennes - Toulouse Toulouse AH(+0.25) @ 2.20 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsnoopy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system You are not Alone! my previously profitable system has leaked 23 points in jan/feb so far!! and it's getting a bit scary as i bet 1.5 points of a 100 point bankroll on each selection. At times like this you must resist the urge to change your system if it has been profitable over a long period as that is the road to ruin imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system You are not Alone! my previously profitable system has leaked 23 points in jan/feb so far!! and it's getting a bit scary as i bet 1.5 points of a 100 point bankroll on each selection. At times like this you must resist the urge to change your system if it has been profitable over a long period as that is the road to ruin imo. Thank you mrsnoopy !! I really appreciate your support especially because I noticed all your 3 posts are on my threads so you are a special punter for sure :D. :ok 27/ Ita1. Palermo - Pescara Pescara AH(+0.5) @ 2.73 28. Ita1. Inter - Chievo Chievo AH(+0.5) @ 2.5 29. Spa1. Vallecano - Atl Madrid Vallecano @ 3.58 30. Fra1. Rennes - Toulouse Toulouse AH(+0.25) @ 2.20 +2.31 units yesterday Today 32. Ita2. Empoli - Livorno Livorno AH(-0.25) @ 2.54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsnoopy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system I don't know about being a special punter! lol but I Identified with your thread as I too have based my system on statistical/mathmatical models, I took a good look at ELO ratings as being part of my system but decided not to use them in the end. If you like ELO rating you may find this site of interest soccer-rating.com they produce ratings based on bookmakers odds and have a calculator where you can select home and away teams before the odds are available online, they are generally very accurate as to what the bookies will post as starting odds. The rating look similar to ELO ratings but are supposed to be more accurate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 32. Ita2. Empoli - Livorno Livorno AH(-0.25) @ 2.54 1 unit lost yesterday I play tonight 33. Eng2. Middlesbrough - Leeds Leeds AH(0) @ 2.62 34. Eng3. Brentford - Stevenage Stevenage AH(+0.25) @ 2.60 35. Eng3. Crewe - Bournemouth Crewe AH(-0.5) @ 3.66 36. Eng3. Yeovil- Preston Yeovil AH(-0.75) @ 2.46 37. Eng4. Wycombe - Bradford Wycombe AH(-0.5) @ 2.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 33. Eng2. Middlesbrough - Leeds Leeds AH(0) @ 2.62 34. Eng3. Brentford - Stevenage Stevenage AH(+0.25) @ 2.60 35. Eng3. Crewe - Bournemouth Crewe AH(-0.5) @ 3.66 36. Eng3. Yeovil- Preston Yeovil AH(-0.75) @ 2.46 37. Eng4. Wycombe - Bradford Wycombe AH(-0.5) @ 2.76 New minimum - 11.61 units on February Exactly one month ago I had +12 units and thought that will be third month on profit but finished January -10 units. I think make sense to think that this month will be opposite situation :) For today 38. Fra2. Arles - Chamois Over 2.5 @ 2.94 39. Fra2. Ajjacio - Nimes Over 2.5 @ 2.58 40. Fra2. Le Mans - Caen Over 2.5 @ 2.76 41. Eng3. Tranmere - Shrewsbury Shrewsbury AH(+0.5) @ 2.06 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system I don't know about being a special punter! lol but I Identified with your thread as I too have based my system on statistical/mathmatical models, I took a good look at ELO ratings as being part of my system but decided not to use them in the end. If you like ELO rating you may find this site of interest soccer-rating.com they produce ratings based on bookmakers odds and have a calculator where you can select home and away teams before the odds are available online, they are generally very accurate as to what the bookies will post as starting odds. The rating look similar to ELO ratings but are supposed to be more accurate? I don-t know if it more accurate, I am not so experienced to say that. Anyway, my rating gives me good probabilities on my opinion, very close to bookmakers probabilities. Of course there are some differences, not very big, for few games. I am a little bit confused indeed, because with these differences I had 2,5 month good profit but suddenly I lost almost everything within less than a month. The probabilities for today-s Ligue 2 games 1 X 2 O U [TABLE=width: 536] [TR] [TD]GFCO Ajaccio[/TD] [TD]Nimes[/TD] [TD=align: right]36,46[/TD] [TD=align: right]33,88 [/TD] [TD=align: right]29,66[/TD] [TD=align: right]45,50 [/TD] [TD=align: right]54,50 [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Le Havre[/TD] [TD]Angers[/TD] [TD=align: right]41,58[/TD] [TD=align: right]32,01[/TD] [TD=align: right]26,41[/TD] [TD=align: right]38,07[/TD] [TD=align: right]61,93[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Lens[/TD] [TD]Chateauroux[/TD] [TD=align: right]47,86[/TD] [TD=align: right]32,77[/TD] [TD=align: right]19,37[/TD] [TD=align: right]37,45[/TD] [TD=align: right]62,55[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Arles[/TD] [TD]Chamois[/TD] [TD=align: right]43,48[/TD] [TD=align: right]29,76[/TD] [TD=align: right]26,76[/TD] [TD=align: right]46,05[/TD] [TD=align: right]53,95[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Istres[/TD] [TD]Auxerre[/TD] [TD=align: right]43,16[/TD] [TD=align: right]30,23[/TD] [TD=align: right]26,61 [/TD] [TD=align: right]41,02[/TD] [TD=align: right]58,98[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Laval[/TD] [TD]Sedan[/TD] [TD=align: right]39,45[/TD] [TD=align: right]36,80 [/TD] [TD=align: right]23,75 [/TD] [TD=align: right]47,41[/TD] [TD=align: right]52,59[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Le Mans[/TD] [TD]Caen [/TD] [TD=align: right]34,00 [/TD] [TD=align: right]30,92 [/TD] [TD=align: right]35,08 [/TD] [TD=align: right]46,04[/TD] [TD=align: right]53,96[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Tours[/TD] [TD]Clermont[/TD] [TD=align: right]47,38[/TD] [TD=align: right]31,90 [/TD] [TD=align: right]20,72 [/TD] [TD=align: right]45,39[/TD] [TD=align: right]54,61[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] If you are interested on statistical/mathmatical models as I am, I would like to share with you more information about my project ;) . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsnoopy Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Hi Giraldi, unfortunatley I do not have a database for french league2 so I cannot compare my system output to your data. I bet on premiership,championship,serie a, laliga, segunda,dutch erdiviese,french orange1,budesliga 1 &2 and portugese primera so if you can post your percentage data for any/some of these leagues it would be interesting to compare to my predictions ( I only predict 1 x 2 odds as I found predicting over/under to have smaller profit margins). Good luck for the weekend! hopefully things should turn around for you soon Varience can be a BITCH! January was a nightmare for me and so far feb has only seen a 0.8 unit profit so it has been a frustrating period for sure, thats why bankroll management is so important so that a bad run doesn't decimate your bank, what percentage of your bank do you bet on each selection? ( please don't say that you are using kelly criterion or 1star 2 star etc).I currently only bet 1.5% and consider this to be aggressive! I really should set it at 1% and i will when my bankroll reaches a certain level. Hope you have a profitable weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system what percentage of your bank do you bet on each selection? ( please don't say that you are using kelly criterion or 1star 2 star etc). I am testing my own management. Maybe it is not very usual but as you see I like to try a lot of new ways. I don-t like to go on busy roads. 1. I bet 1 unit for each selection. 2. I calculate the real value for the unit before each set of events so playing the same number of bets 5 more times, and lost every time all the bets to have at least 10 units (let-s say my safety belt). For example If the bank is 100 and I have 6 selections: 6 x 5 +10=40. I split my bank on 40 units. 1 unit= 2.5. If I loose everything I loose 2.5 * 6=15 Next time I play let-s say 5 events. So 5*5+10=35 and 1 unit=85/35= 2.42 If I am lucky (actually skill) I will have let-s say more 10 Next time I play let-s say 5 events. So 5*5+10=35 and 1 unit=110/35= 3.14 This way I keep control over the bank. If I am good period the value of the unit is growing but on bad period the value of the unit is going down. On the same time if I bet many selection the value of the units is lower. I don't know If it is clear for you.I did not read this just think my self about that. I don-t even know if it is original (I am also working right now to demonstrate a very interesting equation, E=MC2. I hope to be the first to discover it ) The probabilities for Championship today, calculated with my system :D 1,x,2,O,U The last five columns are odds from Pinnacle [TABLE=width: 895] [TR] [TD]Nottingham Forest [/TD] [TD]Bolton[/TD] [TD=align: right]38,07[/TD] [TD=align: right]24,23[/TD] [TD=align: right]37,69[/TD] [TD=align: right]54,18[/TD] [TD=align: right]45,82[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,32[/TD] [TD=align: right]3,52[/TD] [TD=align: right]3,24[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,92[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,98[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Crystal Palace [/TD] [TD]Middlesbrough[/TD] [TD=align: right]53,78[/TD] [TD=align: right]26,11[/TD] [TD=align: right]20,12[/TD] [TD=align: right]50,73[/TD] [TD=align: right]49,27[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,08[/TD] [TD=align: right]3,6[/TD] [TD=align: right]3,75[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,9[/TD] [TD=align: right]2[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Hull [/TD] [TD]Charlton[/TD] [TD=align: right]48,44[/TD] [TD=align: right]31,27[/TD] [TD=align: right]20,29[/TD] [TD=align: right]40,6[/TD] [TD=align: right]59,4[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,83[/TD] [TD=align: right]3,67[/TD] [TD=align: right]4,9[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,05[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,85[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Ipswich [/TD] [TD]Blackpool[/TD] [TD=align: right]38,87[/TD] [TD=align: right]23,66[/TD] [TD=align: right]37,47[/TD] [TD=align: right]52,19[/TD] [TD=align: right]47,81[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,57[/TD] [TD=align: right]3,53[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,83[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,85[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,05[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Derby[/TD] [TD]Wolves[/TD] [TD=align: right]65,19[/TD] [TD=align: right]15,56[/TD] [TD=align: right]19,25[/TD] [TD=align: right]56,5[/TD] [TD=align: right]43,5[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,92[/TD] [TD=align: right]3,71[/TD] [TD=align: right]4,27[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,92[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,98[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Birmingham[/TD] [TD]Watford[/TD] [TD=align: right]30,74[/TD] [TD=align: right]29,99[/TD] [TD=align: right]39,27[/TD] [TD=align: right]49,58[/TD] [TD=align: right]50,42[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,94[/TD] [TD=align: right]3,55[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,48[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,85[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,05[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD]Cardiff[/TD] [TD]Bristol City[/TD] [TD=align: right]61,33[/TD] [TD=align: right]27,44[/TD] [TD=align: right]11,23[/TD] [TD=align: right]44,45[/TD] [TD=align: right]55,55[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,51[/TD] [TD=align: right]4,53[/TD] [TD=align: right]7,03[/TD] [TD=align: right]1,71[/TD] [TD=align: right]2,23[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] For today 42. Eng2. Derby - Wolves Derby AH(-1) @ 2.93 43. Eng2 N, Forrest - Bolton Bolton AH(-0.5) @ 3.21 44. Ita2. Ternana - Empoli Empoli AH(-0.5) @ 2.77 45. Spa1. Granada - Barcelona Granada AH(+1.25) @ 2.67 46. Spa2. Guadalajara - Almeria Guadalajara AH(-0.5) @ 2.97 47. Fra1. Bastia - Nice Nice AH(-0.5) @ 2.99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsnoopy Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Hi Giraldi, an Interesting post! Firstly about your bankroll management, I see a couple of problems with it (only my opinion obviously but insn't that what forums are for??) It is never a good Idea to change your bet size so frequently, If I have understood correctly your bet size changes depending on your number of selections and is immediatley revised up/down depending on the result of the last set of selections?? If this is the case the problem is that your breakeven point is constantly changing and that is never a good Idea, I for one NEVER reduce my bet size after a losing streak as this increases the number of successful selections you need to make to return to breakeven point after your losses. Also I only increase my betsize (currently 1.5% of bankroll or 66 bets) after the total bank has increased by 20% then change to 1.5% of the higher amount. Betting at even stakes is the only way to go! Bad bankroll management will put you out of business sooner rather than later (usually sooner lol!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsnoopy Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Regarding your selection percentages Two games jumped out at me! Cardiff you (61.33%) me 81.6%. versus Bristol City. Derby you (65.19%) me 53.04% versus Wolves. This seems very strange to me, lets look at the current team performance data. Cardiff are lying 1st posn with 64 points and positive goal diff +21 versus Bristol 23rd posn with 31 points and negative GD of -14. Derby are in 10th posn with 42 points and positive GD of +3 Wolves are in 21st posn with 34 points and negative GD of -8. At this stage of the season points won and goal diffrence are very strong indicators of relative team strength, assuming this to be correct how given the data above can your system predict that Derby (at home) have a better chance of beating Wolves than Cardiff (at home) have of beating Bristol city? The team performances of Derby and Wolves are very close (6 points and 11 goals in GD) versus Cardiff versus Bristol (33 points and 35 goals in GD). How can Derby be 65.19% and Cardiff be 61.33%?? It doesn't seem logical to me! :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system If I have understood correctly your bet size changes depending on your number of selections and is immediatley revised up/down depending on the result of the last set of selections?? I for one NEVER reduce my bet size after a losing streak as this increases the number of successful selections you need to make to return to breakeven point after your losses. Bad bankroll management will put you out of business sooner rather than later 1. I totally agree with you that a bad management will put everyone down sooner. 2. The type of management depends and in my opinion must be adapted to the players temperament. On very bad period I think we have to take all the measures to resist longer and not to put all our hopes on miraculous comeback or to fight more aggressively against much stronger opponent. On the other hand we are all gamblers here, so we take chances. My management tries to combine few strategies. It is true that I will loose more on worse period but it worth to risk if the income could be bigger on better period For example. Let-s assume that initial bank is 100 eur and we bet 5 days, 10 units each day. Lets consider now first extreme situation - we loose everything. Lets consider now the second extreme situation - we win everything. This could be too nice so let-s consider only very good profit - 20% each day. Please notice I consider a little bit unbalanced situation. First situation Flat stake 1 unit=1 eur - new bank is 50 eur (I f you have not bad idea to rise your stake after first 3 days) My management - new bank - 38 eur. (considering I am limited to 1 eur minimum stake otherwise the bank is bigger) So the loss is around 25% bigger but We ca not say I am totally down Second situation Flat stake - you win 10 eur after 5 days My management - I have 17 eur more So the gain is 70% bigger in this situation. If we consider better yield of course the gain is bigger. I don-t say it is a good management, I just try it to see what happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Regarding your selection percentages Two games jumped out at me! Cardiff you (61.33%) me 81.6%. versus Bristol City. Derby you (65.19%) me 53.04% versus Wolves. This seems very strange to me, lets look at the current team performance data. Cardiff are lying 1st posn with 64 points and positive goal diff +21 versus Bristol 23rd posn with 31 points and negative GD of -14. Derby are in 10th posn with 42 points and positive GD of +3 Wolves are in 21st posn with 34 points and negative GD of -8. At this stage of the season points won and goal diffrence are very strong indicators of relative team strength, assuming this to be correct how given the data above can your system predict that Derby (at home) have a better chance of beating Wolves than Cardiff (at home) have of beating Bristol city? The team performances of Derby and Wolves are very close (6 points and 11 goals in GD) versus Cardiff versus Bristol (33 points and 35 goals in GD). How can Derby be 65.19% and Cardiff be 61.33%?? It doesn't seem logical to me! :unsure And reggarding my probabilities Maybe you are right. It doesn-t seem logical but we are here to do math and probabilities and not to check if it logical or not. :D My rating has a component where it verifies recent form and deviation from what we expect from a specific team of course taking into account opponent strength. Honestly, I don-t check my robots because I trust on them. I hope you remember the first low A robot may not injure a human being, or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm. I extended the term "injure" to cover the term "lost entire bank" :D But actually I did it for you this morning, by hand: So Cardiff had not a very good period. Last 5 games at home only 3 victories against very accessible opponents. More, with 4 points lost against Petersborugh and Ipswich - very accessible again. Only 5 goals scored. Derby scored much more at home against good opponents (Boro, Leeds).. I think it makes sense to think that Cardiff (much stronger team indeed) is on weaker period than Derby On the other hand, looking for Wolves and Bristol last weeks performances it seems to me that Bristol had few good games but Wolves won one last 10 games I don-t know maybe it is not logical but this is the way my software "thinks". Of course this is only a layer but this affected for sure entire percentage. Maybe the percent for Derby is too big .. but this was the reason I played Derby (-1) yesterday. It was lost but I did not see the game or stats to see what really happened there. Ok, and now my bets for today. Yesterday I lost 1.17 units. 48. Spa2. Hercules - Villareal Hercules AH(-0.5) @ 3.15 49. Spa1. Valladoid - At. Madrid Valladoid AH(0) @ 3.22 50. Ita1. Napoli - Sampdoria Sampdoria AH(+0.5) @ 2.83 51. Ger2. Frankfurt - Cottbus Frankfurt AH(-0.5) @ 2.46 52. Ita2. Novara - Verona Novara AH(-0.5) @ 3.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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