v3rn0n Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system My system also gave Derby a greater chance of winning than Cardiff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 48. Spa2. Hercules - Villareal Hercules AH(-0.5) @ 3.15 49. Spa1. Valladoid - At. Madrid Valladoid AH(0) @ 3.22 50. Ita1. Napoli - Sampdoria Sampdoria AH(+0.5) @ 2.83 51. Ger2. Frankfurt - Cottbus Frankfurt AH(-0.5) @ 2.46 52. Ita2. Novara - Verona Novara AH(-0.5) @ 3.05 +3.34 units yesterday I almost forgot how it is to have 70% profit in one day O tempora... 53. Fra2. Dijon - Monaco Dijon AH(-0.5) @ 3.50 54. Eng3. Crawley - Doncaster Doncaster AH(-0.5) @ 3.31 55. Ita1. Siena - Lazio Siena AH(-0.5) @ 3.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 53. Fra2. Dijon - Monaco Dijon AH(-0.5) @ 3.50 54. Eng3. Crawley - Doncaster Doncaster AH(-0.5) @ 3.31 55. Ita1. Siena - Lazio Siena AH(-0.5) @ 3.26 I am happy for every 0.01 units so I am very happy with +0.26 units 56. Eng2. Leicester - Charlton Charlton AH(+0.5) @ 2.63 57. Eng2. Cardiff - Brghton Cardiff AH(-1) @ 3.17 58. Eng2. Barnsley - Wolves Burnsley AH(-0.5) @ 2.33 59. Eng2. Ipswich - Watford Watford Watford AH(-0.5) @ 2.67 60. Eng2. Milwall - Peterborough Peterborough AH(0) @ 2.94 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 56. Eng2. Leicester - Charlton Charlton AH(+0.5) @ 2.63 57. Eng2. Cardiff - Brghton Cardiff AH(-1) @ 3.17 58. Eng2. Barnsley - Wolves Burnsley AH(-0.5) @ 2.33 59. Eng2. Ipswich - Watford Watford Watford AH(-0.5) @ 2.67 60. Eng2. Milwall - Peterborough Peterborough AH(0) @ 2.94 Excellent day and +5.57 units. I have to recover 2.97 units more on February. O lost more than 30 units between 15 January and 15 February (but sill on profit). I can-t remember worse period. Yes I Can !! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system My system's selections for today: 61. Ita2. Spezia - Novara Novara AH(-0.5) @ 3.71 62. Spa1. Bilbao - Sociedat Sociedad AH(-0.5) @ 3.11 63. Fra2. Auxerre - Guingamp Guingamp AH(-0.5) @ 3.21 64. Fra2. Clermont - Dijon Dijon AH(-0.25) @ 3.28 Again, a lot of credit for guest teams ...Let-s see. My software is based on ELO mainly (the last 5 years results.) but makes a fine tune based on Poisson considering last 10 games (home respectively away). In my opinion ELO gives me the big "picture" - the relative strength of each team. (If you are interested in I may show you different graph with ELO evolution for specific team - I am not sure I am allowed to present graphs I will check that) Further, Poisson makes a fine tune because gives me the probabilities to score considering last events. Of course my system works on 36 leagues but since 3th November I have been testing only with 12 big leagues. Anyway today there are some good odds in my opinion. Worth to play for sure. P.S. Because I have entire database including minutes I am working to a strategy for live play. Let-s consider any score between 2 teams at any minute. What is the probability for Home win, Away win, Over under...etc.? I have some results so far. Because we have today Ligue 2 Considering 24 games Sedan received goals on first 15 min on 7 games and Auxerre on 6 games. Sedan managed to draw 2 and Auxerre 1. None of them managed to win. May rise many strategies from here if we have many information . (Ok, they have too but the other players don-t) On the same way many teams had good results on the last 15 minutes of the first half or the second half (better shape probably). An so on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system I would like to show you some results of my system The game no1 was back in 2004/2005 season. Alll teams started with 2000 points and the rating is now very well calibrated in my opinion It is very easy to see what happened considering ELO rating: Blue - Manchester City Red - Liverpool Green - Aston Villa We may say that City is clear on slight decreasing since Liverpool is rising Also notice the City performances last years Aston Villa have had recently terrible period (including 0-15 goals on 3 games), but now seems to try to return to live Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 23, 2013 Author Share Posted February 23, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 61. Ita2. Spezia - Novara Novara AH(-0.5) @ 3.71 62. Spa1. Bilbao - Sociedat Sociedad AH(-0.5) @ 3.11 63. Fra2. Auxerre - Guingamp Guingamp AH(-0.5) @ 3.21 64. Fra2. Clermont - Dijon Dijon AH(-0.25) @ 3.28 Very good day again and +3.32 units. I think I am back on profit but today is very important day for my bank on February. Unfortunately it is Saturday with a lot of games with good value (my software opinion :) ) and everything it is possible. Let-s see. 65. Eng1. Reading - Wigan Reading AH(-0.5) @ 2.65 66. Eng2. Watford - Derby Watford AH(-1) @ 2.45 67. Eng3. Leyton - Crawley Leyton AH(-0.5) @ 2.51 68. Eng3. Doncaster - Yeovil Yeovil AH(-0.5) @ 3.11 69. Eng4. Aldershot - Fleetwood Fleetwood AH(-0.5) @ 2.85 70. Eng4. Barnet - Rochdale Barnet AH(-0.5) @ 2.61 71. Eng4. Northampton - Plymouth Northampton AH(-1) @ 2.70 72. Ita2. Modena - Brescia Modena AH(-0.75) @ 2.83 73. Ita2. Citadella - Livorno Livorno AH(-0.5) @ 2.86 74. Fra1. Ajjacio - Lille Ajjacio AH(-0.25) @ 2.98 75. Fra1. Nancy - St. Etienne St Etienne AH(-0.75) @ 2.48 76. Fra1. Valenciennes - Toulose Valenciennes AH(-0.75) @ 2.87 77. Ger1. Stuttgart - Nurnberg Nurnberg AH(0) @ 2.63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsnoopy Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Hi Giraldi, Glad to see that your system has returned to profit :) Iv'e noticed that you seem to only be betting on the Asian Handicap market now (seems to be working so far!). I am interested to know how you convert ELO ratings into percentages so you can calculate fair odds, Also if you have started the ratings from 2004/5 sureley the top teams just keep getting higher ratings year on year? or do you go back to zero at the start of each season? If you do restart each season how do you calculate odds for the first games until form is established? These are the problems I had with ELO ratings for foootball and decided not to use them in the end would be Interested to know how you have overcome these difficulties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system It's unfortunate the results do not reflect the effort, good luck this weekend :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Even if I do not believe in luck but skill, thank you Datapunter :ok Mrsnoopy, please allow me few minutes to give you an detailed answer. Regarding my "skill": 65. Eng1. Reading - Wigan Reading AH(-0.5) @ 2.65 66. Eng2. Watford - Derby Watford AH(-1) @ 2.45 67. Eng3. Leyton - Crawley Leyton AH(-0.5) @ 2.51 68. Eng3. Doncaster - Yeovil Yeovil AH(-0.5) @ 3.11 69. Eng4. Aldershot - Fleetwood Fleetwood AH(-0.5) @ 2.85 70. Eng4. Barnet - Rochdale Barnet AH(-0.5) @ 2.61 71. Eng4. Northampton - Plymouth Northampton AH(-1) @ 2.70 72. Ita2. Modena - Brescia Modena AH(-0.75) @ 2.83 73. Ita2. Citadella - Livorno Livorno AH(-0.5) @ 2.86 74. Fra1. Ajjacio - Lille Ajjacio AH(-0.25) @ 2.98 75. Fra1. Nancy - St. Etienne St Etienne AH(-0.75) @ 2.48 76. Fra1. Valenciennes - Toulose Valenciennes AH(-0.75) @ 2.87 77. Ger1. Stuttgart - Nurnberg Nurnberg AH(0) @ 2.63 Following a very good week I don-t complain about 3.66 units lost especially because could be worse yesterday. Anyway the English teams have betrayed me this round. :) 78. Ita1. Inter - Milan Inter AH(-0.5) @ 3.85 79. Ita1. Atalanta - Roma Atalanta AH(-0.5) @ 3.20 80. Spa1. Celta Vigo - Granada Granada AH(0) @ 3.33 81. Ger2. Cottbus - Jahn R. Jahn.R. AH(+0.25) @ 2.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Hi Giraldi, Glad to see that your system has returned to profit :) Iv'e noticed that you seem to only be betting on the Asian Handicap market now (seems to be working so far!). I am interested to know how you convert ELO ratings into percentages so you can calculate fair odds, Also if you have started the ratings from 2004/5 sureley the top teams just keep getting higher ratings year on year? or do you go back to zero at the start of each season? If you do restart each season how do you calculate odds for the first games until form is established? These are the problems I had with ELO ratings for foootball and decided not to use them in the end would be Interested to know how you have overcome these difficulties. Hi, Mrsnoopy , I will present you a little bit more detailed my ideas with the hope that someone will see something very wrong and so will help to improve. First, all my strategies are based on: All the betting industry is based on probabilities. Nobody will know ever what is the real probability for the specific event “They†are far better than us in terms of calculating probabilities and considering “unfair†odds they will win for ever, but still there are (forced or not) errors and the only possibility to get profit is to find their errors and so called “valueâ€. “They†don-t care about individuals players but for their overall profit. Second , I developed my own strategy and software based on stats after few years I searched the net for something to help me. None ideas is original but with some adaptation to fit my needs. On my opinion the probabilities for a specific football event is affected only by Historical value (actually by the difference between historical values) Recent form and events The percent each part are included is still under researching J but for sure the point a. is much more important as I noticed so far. For modeling I used ELO for point a. and Poisson for point b. To respond directly to your questions All the Premier teams started with 2000 points on 2004/2005 season. After few calculation I decided to start with 1700 point for Championship, 1500 for League 1 and 1300 for League2. This way a team promoted to Premier will have around 1850 points, usually a little bit over a team relegated from Premier and so on. At this moment the only “entrance†on the system is “League2†where a team will have 1300 points. All other teams will maintain their rating over seasons , relegated or promoted. Indeed if you start over the rating each season the big problem is the “calibrationâ€. I don-t have this problem now. Regarding probabilities is very easy. I effectively calculate the outcomes for exactly the same type of game for the same league. For example Team A – 1980 points, Team B- 1760 points. How many games Teams with ELO between 1980 – x and 1980 +x won against a team B with the ELO between 1760-y and 1760+y where x and y are parameters . The same way for draw and away team win. I have to say that I made a filter to reject some games from being counted. With this method the probabilities are remarkable close to bookmakers probabilities. The small differences are probably given by the database complexity, the x and y parameters and maybe some secret ingredients. As I said before now I apply a form correction based on recent 10 games, 5 games, home, away or together. Of course there are a lot to work to find the best range for each parameter but I have necessary tools. I am still searching … With my excuses for my poor English, I hope you are satisfied with my answers.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 78. Ita1. Inter - Milan Inter AH(-0.5) @ 3.85 79. Ita1. Atalanta - Roma Atalanta AH(-0.5) @ 3.20 80. Spa1. Celta Vigo - Granada Granada AH(0) @ 3.33 81. Ger2. Cottbus - Jahn R. Jahn.R. AH(+0.25) @ 2.60 I lost 2.20 units and it seems to be second month with little loss. Although I have still some profit over 4 months, if on March will continue this trend I will change something with my strategy Today 82. Fra2. Monaco - Lens Lens AH(+0.75) @ 1.96 83. Ita1. Udinese - Napoli Udinese AH(-0.25) @ 2.68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 82. Fra2. Monaco - Lens Lens AH(+0.75) @ 1.96 83. Ita1. Udinese - Napoli Udinese AH(-0.25) @ 2.68 I lost 1 unit yesterday. Last chance to recover something for February (I lost around 6 units so far) 84. Eng3. Bournemouth - Coventry Coventry AH(0) @ 2.89 85. Eng3. Colchester - Yeovil Yeovil AH(-0.75) @ 3.06 86. Eng4. Port Vale - Exeter Exeter AH(+0.25) @ 2.42 87. Ita2. Varese - Cesena Cesena AH(+0.5) @ 2.32 88. Ita2. Brescia - Empoli Empoli AH(0) @ 2.64 P.S. I am very sure that my strategy and my software system is very good. It is only a matter of time to get good profit. I hope no more than 15-20 years :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsnoopy Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system HI Giraldi, Firstly I have no problems at all understading your English it is certainly much better than my Italian (my second language) and considering that I'm from Liverpool your English is probably better than mine :). I believe that I have a better understanding of your system now and It seems like you have put alot of work into it, your explination of how you use ELO ratings to calculate the basic chance of each team and then adjust this for recent form using poisson makes complete sense, you woud need a LARGE database of previouse games with the ratings for each team at the time of the game I would suggest minimum 5000 games but 10000 plus would be better! I too like yourself have been working to find a solution for finding value bets in football matches and it has proved to be more difficult than I had imagined :wall Still this weekend saw my first profitable weekend of the year with just over 7 points profit! I'm hoping that things have returned to "normal" but who knows if normal is December (great) or JAN/most of feb (disaster) :D, It certainly helps if you can mantain a sense of humour during the tough periods and I see that you have managed to do this, I think sticking with your system through to the end of mar is a good idea as it is still early days I personally would not consider 500 selections to be a large enough sample to base any decisions on but I understang the urge to change is strong when in a losing streak. Hope it turns around for you soon! (much less than 15-20 years!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Mrsnoopy, thank you for your intervention. Of course I will not refuse ever some extra money but my key word regarding betting activity is "entertainment". I have enough experience to know that is really hard to beat them and on the other hand to realize that I have to pay for "entertainment". My idea is to try to have great time without paying anything or at least to not pay the right price. :lol This is my hobby. 1. I am very focused on my hobby about 1-2 spare hours every day and I am very happy with that. 2. My wife is happy I don-t go outside with my friends and I am close to her eyes. :notworthy 3. My daughter is happy because I dont have time to check her homework :@ 4. In order to let me alone I give to my pet (see the avatar) small recompenses every 10 min and seems to be very happy with that The entire family is happy. Have I reasons to not be happy with my hobby (except the fact when I see the zbrochu's yield :lol) ? 84. Eng3. Bournemouth - Coventry Coventry AH(0) @ 2.89 85. Eng3. Colchester - Yeovil Yeovil AH(-0.75) @ 3.06 86. Eng4. Port Vale - Exeter Exeter AH(+0.25) @ 2.42 87. Ita2. Varese - Cesena Cesena AH(+0.5) @ 2.32 88. Ita2. Brescia - Empoli Empoli AH(0) @ 2.64 Very good day with almost 100% yield and I recovered 3.95 units. I have more 2.5 units to recover this month but I don-t think it is a good idea to force today, on the last day of the month. 88. Ita2. Varese - Cesena Cesena AH(+0.5) @ 2.22 89. Ita2. Bari - Verona Verona AH(-0.5) @ 2.57 90. Eng.4. Bradford - Dag & Red Under 2 @ 2.94 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 88. Ita2. Varese - Cesena Cesena AH(+0.5) @ 2.22 89. Ita2. Bari - Verona Verona AH(-0.5) @ 2.57 90. Eng.4. Bradford - Dag & Red Under 2 @ 2.94 Small profit but just 5 minutes to finish February with profit. (both Varese and Bradford scored on the last few minutes) Anyway I am happy I managed to stop the big loses happened between 15 Jan and 15 Feb . It is time for short recap Dec 19.23 Units 13.63 Yield Jan -9.63 Units -10.35 Yield Feb -1.99 Units -2.21 Yield Total 7.61 Units 2.34 Yield Small Yield but this small yield is the root of my hopes. :) On the other hand I was thinking about the method my system calculates the probability. I was wandering if it is correct to start the calculation with current ELO rank. Maybe is better to calculate an average ELO rang considering last 3, 5 or 10 games. In the current procedure , if one team had a very good last game (let-s say a surprise), this fact affects ELO a lot and the results are maybe not very accurate. (Stats show me that very very rare a very big game is followed by another good game). It is like the current results affect "historical value" and I dont want that. Anyway the march will continue with the same procedure. I am going to select my first winning games for this month. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system My first attempt for this month 1. Eng2. Derby - Crystal Palace Derby AH(-0.5) @ 2.69 2. Fra2. Laval - Clermont Over 2.5 @ 2.54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 1. Eng2. Derby - Crystal Palace Derby AH(-0.5) @ 2.69 2. Fra2. Laval - Clermont Over 2.5 @ 2.54 Today I am in a good mood so I think positive: excellent start for March and only 2 units lost. :) My selections for today: 3. Eng1. Southampton - QPR Draw @ 3.84 4. Eng1. Stoke - WHU Over 2.5 @ 2.30 5. Eng2. Middlesbrough - Cardiff Cardiff AH(-0.5) @ 2.54 6. Eng4. Accrington - Torquai Draw 2 3.43 7. Ita2. Cesena - Modena Over 2.5 @ 2.29 8. Ita2. Spezia - Livorno Livorno AH(-0.5) @ 2.73 9. Spa1. Real - Barcelona Real AH(-0.5) @ 3.06 10. Fra1. Reims - PSG Over 2.5 @ 2.07 11. Fra2. Sochaux - Nancy Over 2.5 @ 2.33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 3. Eng1. Southampton - QPR Draw @ 3.84 4. Eng1. Stoke - WHU Over 2.5 @ 2.30 5. Eng2. Middlesbrough - Cardiff Cardiff AH(-0.5) @ 2.54 6. Eng4. Accrington - Torquai Draw 2 3.43 7. Ita2. Cesena - Modena Over 2.5 @ 2.29 8. Ita2. Spezia - Livorno Livorno AH(-0.5) @ 2.73 9. Spa1. Real - Barcelona Real AH(-0.5) @ 3.06 10. Fra1. Reims - PSG Over 2.5 @ 2.07 11. Fra2. Sochaux - Nancy Over 2.5 @ 2.33 Good results yesterday and + 2.55 units My selections for today 12. Eng1. Tottenham - Arsenal Arsenal AH(-0.5) @ 3.22 13. Ita1. Catania - Milan Catania AH(-0.5) @ 2.26 14. Ita1. Pescara - Udinese Pescara AH(-0.5) @ 3.80 15. Ita1. Roma - Genoa Under 2.5 @ 2.45 16. Spa1. Malaga - Atl Madrid Malaga AH(-0.5) @ 3.48 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 12. Eng1. Tottenham - Arsenal Arsenal AH(-0.5) @ 3.22 13. Ita1. Catania - Milan Catania AH(-0.5) @ 2.26 14. Ita1. Pescara - Udinese Pescara AH(-0.5) @ 3.80 15. Ita1. Roma - Genoa Under 2.5 @ 2.45 16. Spa1. Malaga - Atl Madrid Malaga AH(-0.5) @ 3.48 Believe me or not, my only concern is I don-t know what to do starting with next month. Change something or lay my own selections? :lol Anyway I noticed something very interesting. If I had played only winning bets I would have had good profit so I think it makes sense to bet only winning bets but I don-t know why I feel something is wrong with my theory ...... 17. Ger2. Duisburg - Braunschweig Over 2.5 @ 2.15 18. Spa1. Sevilla - Celta Vigo Under 2.5 @ 2.09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsnoopy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Hi Giraldi, My nightmare start to the year has continued also, i gained just over 6 points last weekend only to lose 8 points this weekend!! I think lay giraldi and lay mr snoopy could be the way forward! :rollin. Ihave lost all the profit I had made in december (23 points) and have lost just over 25 points so far this year!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 17. Ger2. Duisburg - Braunschweig Over 2.5 @ 2.15 18. Spa1. Sevilla - Celta Vigo Under 2.5 @ 2.09 Thank you mrsnoopy, I understand you had worse period than me. I feel much better now :) -6.45 units lost this month 19. Eng2. Watford - Sheffield Under 2.5 @ 2.07 20. Eng3. MK Dons - Doncaster Doncaster AH(-0.5) @ 3.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsnoopy Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Hi Giraldi, Are you interested in a collaboration? I am interested in trying something with ELO ratings, I have seen that you are having some problems deciding on the best settings for your parameters, I can definatley help with this as I have some specialist software that can analyse your data and answer these questions. I would need your historical elo rating data files and current team elo ratings and I will set up a new model using these and backtest it against known results to see if these ratings provide a more accurate prediction of match results than the data that i'm currently using. Two brains maybe are better than one :ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted March 7, 2013 Author Share Posted March 7, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Hi mrsnoopy Of course I am interested in any collaboration in order to improve a system. We are all here on the same boat (I hope). Indeed I have some problem regarding parameters but the only big problem is "time". In order to test a specific configuration we need many weeks, probably years. As you said the solution could be to test configuration against known results. I have my own tools to do that.(see my signature for more details) Anyway I have no problem to share my databases and my ideas with you or someone else with the hope that you or your friend will see better solutions . Please find the way to got contact because you don-t have "private message" option.:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsnoopy Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Hi Giraldi, My email that I set up for my sports betting is specialonesports@********** so email me and I will go into the details of what I can set up. I have automated my back testing against known results on my database (over 24,000 games) so I should be able to tell if using ELO ratings as a data input improves accuracy quite quickly! Anyways send me a private email and I can explain thigs better. :D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrsnoopy Posted March 7, 2013 Share Posted March 7, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system well that didnt work I have enebled v card if that helps! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 19. Eng2. Watford - Sheffield Under 2.5 @ 2.07 20. Eng3. MK Dons - Doncaster Doncaster AH(-0.5) @ 3.02 Again, 9 bets lost in a row and -8.45 units this month 21. Ger1. Augsburg - Nurnberg Draw @ 3.31 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted March 9, 2013 Author Share Posted March 9, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 21. Ger1. Augsburg - Nurnberg Draw @ 3.31 just 1 unit lost. Please without panic.My project is sinking but the situation is under control and the orchestra is playing. :lol 22. Eng1. QPR - Sunderland Sunderland AH(-0.5) @ 3.55 23. Eng3. Portsmouth - Bury Bury AH(-0.5) @ 2.84 24. Ita1. Udinese - Roma Udinese AH(-0.5) @ 2.91 25. Ita2. Brescia - Novara Novara AH(-0.5) @ 3.71 26. Ger1. Borussia - Werder Borussia AH(-0.5) @ 2.27 27. Ger1. Mainz - Leverkusen Draw @ 3.57 mrsnoopy, last few days I tried almost all the combination for your e-mail address. I replace "*" with all possible letter specialonesports@********** I surrender. Please give me one more clue. There are "a" ? :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted March 10, 2013 Author Share Posted March 10, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system 22. Eng1. QPR - Sunderland Sunderland AH(-0.5) @ 3.55 23. Eng3. Portsmouth - Bury Bury AH(-0.5) @ 2.84 24. Ita1. Udinese - Roma Udinese AH(-0.5) @ 2.91 25. Ita2. Brescia - Novara Novara AH(-0.5) @ 3.71 26. Ger1. Borussia - Werder Borussia AH(-0.5) @ 2.27 27. Ger1. Mainz - Leverkusen Draw @ 3.57 It is almost unbelievable. 15 lost in a row! I believe it is a great performance if you really want to do that. Anyway, until I change something all the planes remain to ground. I will continue next week with a little bit modified strategy, of course starting with the same negative bank. On the other hand I noticed that now, after 15 lost in a row I advanced to "senior punter". I assume that at the moment I will lose the house, the car and all my money I will be "God punter". I have never understood how this thing works. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giraldi Posted March 16, 2013 Author Share Posted March 16, 2013 Re: ELO & Poisson rating system After the performance of 15 in a row lost (if you don't believe it is a performance try yourself do to it :)) I got a break in the first place, then I have changed the selection mode. The software is the same (I am sure is very good) I only try to choose the games based on another criteria. Of course the bank for March is -15.45 units 28. Eng1. Stoke - WBA WBA AH(-0.5) @ 3.13 29. Eng3. Brentford - Preston Preston AH(0) @ 2.99 30. Eng4. Bristol - Rochdale Bristol AH(-0.75) @ 2.78 31. Ita1. Bologna - Juventus Bologna AH(+0.5) @ 2.25 32. Spa1. Valencia - Betis Betis AH(+0.5) @ 2.48 33. Ger2. Bochum - Braunschweig Bochum AH(0) @ 2.12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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