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plinge

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About plinge

  • Birthday 12/07/1968

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  1. Re: BBOTD Monday 11th November WD, ripping early shout at those odds! It was absolutely smashed -- into 9/2. Also has a Derby entry, so the money was likely to be significant when they came for it.
  2. Re: Does distance matter? (624 bets, +46.63 points, +7.5% ROI) Congrats on a tidy ROI thus far, especially considering the large number of bets. Do you happen to have any historical stats comparing Strike Rate/Profit/ROI for early rounds of a league compared to the major portion of a season?
  3. Re: Estimations based on Odds Data of local book Do you honestly believe the profits (hundreds of millions respectively) of the likes of Billy Walters, Alan Woods, Bill Benter, Zeljko Ranojec and David Walsh are pure myth?
  4. Re: Back tested system US Open 12 % yield, 12 years Done the right way it is anything but worthless. I'd have to agree with this. Good luck, gonza, but bear in mind that if you scan enough data you are bound to find statistical anomalies. This is what I would term BackFITTING as opposed to BackTESTING/Historical Analysis. Unless you have a theory as to why certain odds brackets, in certain rounds, in a certain tournament should be successful (and it would want to be one remarkable theory) I would treat this very cautiously.
  5. Re: Search vor Value Bets! Congrats, on the early success with this. If you don't mind me asking, is there a significant difference between your current approach and what you were doing with the livestream observation thread that you closed?
  6. Re: Bully's, BB and ******* betting blog. Brilliant work guys.
  7. Re: ELO & Poisson rating system Hi Giraldi, Congrats on your profitability thus far. Out of curiosity, what percentage do you have Sheffield at?
  8. Re: Recent winners with multiple entries Thanks for the clarifications. I just realised that the only flat racing in the UK winter is on the AW. So the the distinction isn't anything special about the surface, just between the flat and jumps, right?
  9. Re: Recent winners with multiple entries Jay, Sorry to trouble you again, but I've been looking back through the posts and would appreciate it if you could clarify a couple of things before this thread gets put to bed. -Did you only include last start winners with ENTRIES in two or more races SCHEDULED WITHIN two weeks of the win, or did you include all horses RACING WITHIN two weeks of a win and entered in more than one race over any time frame (eg. a horse that racing exactly 14 days after a win and is already entered for another race a few days later)? -Any particular reason you decided to limit this to the AW?
  10. Re: Recent winners with multiple entries Many thanks, very helpful.
  11. Re: Recent winners with multiple entries Hi Jay, Congrats on the success of this "experiment". I'm in Australia and just starting to learn about UK racing; might I ask which websites/resources you use to check for multiple entries?
  12. Re: Emirates Melbourne Cup Day Tuesday 6 November 2012 So open, but: Americain
  13. Re: Moonee Valley Betting 27/10/2012 Must say I'm surprised, but there's a bit of whisper for All Too Hard.
  14. Re: Moonee Valley Betting 27/10/2012 Another thing in Green Moon's favour is that it's one of the few horses in the race that has the dual attributes of being able to race on the pace (always an advantage at Moonee Valley), and also being no risk to run the trip out strongly (runner-up in the Caulfield Cup last year, and well in the market for the upcoming Melbourne Cup). Interesting race though, and it's not hard to make a case for quite a few runners. With the exception of So You Think's second win, the Cox Plate seems to have become more open in recent times. Over the years I have loved to lay into a hot fav. on the race. I remember that one of the first years I became really keen on racing as a kid was the year Dulcify won by 7 lengths (before sadly breaking down in the Melbourne Cup), and I think I formed the opinion early that it was a great race for top shelf "good things" when Kingston Town won the next three in a row. Proved a very a rewarding strategy over the years, with the likes of Rubiton, Better Loosen Up, Might and Power, Sunline, Makybe Diva all starting around the 4/5 to 2/1 range when they probably should have been heavily odds on.
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