Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn]Swansea City v Liverpool (13:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.15[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.48 % [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[neilovan]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November The bookies have the over/under 2.5 match goals priced at 1.83 for both. They have no real clue as to what's going to happen here. Swansea at home : Over 2.5 goals in 5 of their 6 games. The one game that did not get over the 2.5 line was a 1-1 draw with Chelsea. Otherwise there have been plenty of goals (19 in 6 games) . 1 clean sheet in 6 games. Liverpool away : Over 2.5 goals 3 times in 5 games, no clean sheets for Liverpool with a goal total of 18 in 5 games. Liverpool away from home have the 4th highest goals per game average in the premier league this season (3.6) (They are behind Saints 4.50, Fulham 4.50, and Spurs 4.17) I'm going to do some analysis of over/under percentages when the game involves a clean sheet. What effect does the clean sheet have in determining over/under 2.5 goal percentage ? Regardless of the above I do like the over 2.5 goals at 1.8 bet365 :ok

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November The Swansea centre back Ashley Williams come out this week highly critical of Luis Suarez diving. So can see an extremely motivated Suarez on Sunday with a celebration to go with it, like he did against Everton. Also its worth noting that Williams isn't the best centre back in the premiership so can definitely see Suarez getting at least one to rub it in Williams face. The game should be quite open as both sides play a high pressure - passing possession game. Swansea also got back on track last week against Newcastle after some poor results so in a match between two form sides that are playing well. The Swansea side only contains 6 players that use to play for Brendon Rodgers so we can rule out the tactical advantage here for Liverpool. Over 2.5 Goals - 8pts BTTS - 8pts Suarez Anytime Scorer - 10pts

[Hitch]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November

The Swansea centre back Ashley Williams come out this week highly critical of Luis Suarez diving. So can see an extremely motivated Suarez on Sunday with a celebration to go with it, like he did against Everton. Also its worth noting that Williams isn't the best centre back in the premiership so can definitely see Suarez getting at least one to rub it in Williams face. The game should be quite open as both sides play a high pressure - passing possession game. Swansea also got back on track last week against Newcastle after some poor results so in a match between two form sides that are playing well. The Swansea side only contains 6 players that use to play for Brendon Rodgers so we can rule out the tactical advantage here for Liverpool. Over 2.5 Goals - 8pts BTTS - 8pts Suarez Anytime Scorer - 10pts

Following you on all 3 bets, good luck!

[gogoto]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November

The Swansea centre back Ashley Williams come out this week highly critical of Luis Suarez diving. So can see an extremely motivated Suarez on Sunday with a celebration to go with it, like he did against Everton. Also its worth noting that Williams isn't the best centre back in the premiership so can definitely see Suarez getting at least one to rub it in Williams face.

Oh yes, accuses him of being a serial cheat and admitting he was so riled by him in one game last season that he wanted to 'knock him out'. Williams claims that Suarez dives more than any other player he has faced and slams his 'superior' manner on the pitch. Suarez is arrogant, big-mouth, diver...' - yellow in the horizon :-)

[kevshat]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November 4pts Swansea (+0.25AH) to beat Liverpool 11/10 Betfred Liverpool aren’t in great form going into this match and there is no doubt Swansea will be up for getting one over on their old manager so I expect them to be well up for this. Swansea have lost just one of their last six matches and that was away to Man City so they are in good form and I think they can take some kind of result from this match unless Luis Suarez has one of his unplayable days. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/swansea-vs-liverpool-betting-controlling-suarez-can-be-the-key-to-the-swans-getting-a-result

[spurshero]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November i think liverpool can win here and will back them . its the kind of match they need to win to have even an outside chance of top 4 . for some reason i prefer to back pool on their travels as i usually think their priced up to short at anfield

[Aidymac]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November *Liverpool WIN @ 2.16 > Betfair* Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 7 games in the league and i fancy them to just edge out this Swansea side. Suarez is in terrific form at the moment, and although Liverpool are very reliant on him, he is finding the net of late, and he will have a good few chances for sure, he always does. They are unbeaten in their last 4 away league games with draws at Sunderland, Everton and Chelsea and a 5-2 win at Norwich. Swansea are in very good form also, but Rodgers is starting to get a tune out of this Liverpool side, and with Suarez in great form i think the Scousers will just be too strong. I also thing Williams could well get sent off, because he is out for Suarez tomorrow, and it is quite possible they could be down to 10 men at some point of the game if he doesn't control his anger.

[anderson4eva]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November

The bookies have the over/under 2.5 match goals priced at 1.83 for both. They have no real clue as to what's going to happen here. Swansea at home : Over 2.5 goals in 5 of their 6 games. The one game that did not get over the 2.5 line was a 1-1 draw with Chelsea. Otherwise there have been plenty of goals (19 in 6 games) . 1 clean sheet in 6 games. Liverpool away : Over 2.5 goals 3 times in 5 games, no clean sheets for Liverpool with a goal total of 18 in 5 games. I'm going to do some analysis of over/under percentages when the game involves a clean sheet. What effect does the clean sheet have in determining over/under 2.5 goal percentage ? Regardless of the above I do like the over 2.5 goals at 1.8 bet365 :ok

good spot the over 2.5 looks like a great shout neilovan, how much u gonna bet on that match on bet365? 50 pounds?

[Aidymac]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November

good spot the over 2.5 looks like a great shout neilovan' date=' how much u gonna bet on that match on bet365? 50 pounds?[/quote'] Mate, please stop asking people how much money they are putting on. You asked me earlier how much i lost on Arsenal, that is none of your business. As i already said, we deal with "Points" here, so there could be a scale of 1-10, some people bet £5 per point, some £10 per point, some £100 per point. So if you bet £10 per point, and Neil has 10 points on something, to you that is a bet of £100. So no more talk of money please, points only.

[swindonfan]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November Most likely it is going to be a mud bath of a pitch tomorrow given the amount of rain that we are having right now. In such situations the price on overs usually lengthens close to kick off once punters see the pitch on tv and start backing unders. Does it actually make it more likely to be unders if the pitch and conditions are bad. I dont really know.

[neilovan]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November

i think liverpool can win here and will back them . its the kind of match they need to win to have even an outside chance of top 4 . for some reason i prefer to back pool on their travels as i usually think their priced up to short at anfield

I would be damn scared to back Liverpool away. Signs are that they are getting better, but they are over reliant on Saurez, and their away record is terrible. A good team that's firing reasonably will get goals from everywhere. I helps when one key player has a couple of quiet games (ie. van Persie at United against Villa and QPR) , that others score . They cannot win easily away if they are not tight defensively, and they are shipping goals. Not one clean sheet in 5 games, so you need 2 to win every time..... I think there is no chance they will be in the top 4. They would have to beat WBA, Spurs and Arsenal to do this , and I think its one hell of a task. Absolutely critical is that they pick up a great signing in the transfer window. That will be a very strong indication of their scouting system, and Brendan Rogers ability to judge talent... My feeling is that this one activity will make or break their season ..... Neil.

[Jase82]

Does it actually make it more likely to be unders if the pitch and conditions are bad. I dont really know.

No I don't think it does. I think there's no real evidence to suggest poor weather increases or decreases the goal count. You have to take each game into its own context and the weather can really make things go either way. These sort of myths may have had greater importance forty odd years ago, which is where I believe it would have originated. Clubs have far superior facilities these days. Especially where the Liberty Stadium is concerned, which is relatively modern.

[neilovan]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November One thing that I will look into this season is how teams perform later on in the season. The dark cold days of Jan, Feb, March are tough months. Smaller clubs can't keep their players fresh, they pick up niggles and slight injuries. The big clubs put the peddle down in these months. Their replacements are better, squads bigger, players fresher. What is the effect on over / unders when mid table or lower table teams meet ? What effect on BTTS does this create , if any ? Should be interesting ....

[neilovan]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November I'm half considering just taking the unders here and locking the bet in. I have this game 20 to 7 units, so I could take the under 2.5 for about 8.5 units, and just have a 11.5 units win to nothing. Have about 18 to 10 units on BTTS Saints and Newcastle and I'm considering do it there as well (have 8 units to nothing). Nicely ahead for the weekend and maybe it's prudent to just lock in some profit and not get greedy ..... Both bets win and you still win , Both lose and you are square. One winner / one loser up about 9 units, which is better than a spank on the buttocks :spank

[IAmGooner]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November So what are you going with? Overs at the top, unders here, its pretty vague?

[blackcrow]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November

*Liverpool WIN @ 2.16 > Betfair* Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 7 games in the league and i fancy them to just edge out this Swansea side. Suarez is in terrific form at the moment, and although Liverpool are very reliant on him, he is finding the net of late, and he will have a good few chances for sure, he always does. They are unbeaten in their last 4 away league games with draws at Sunderland, Everton and Chelsea and a 5-2 win at Norwich. Swansea are in very good form also, but Rodgers is starting to get a tune out of this Liverpool side, and with Suarez in great form i think the Scousers will just be too strong. I also thing Williams could well get sent off, because he is out for Suarez tomorrow, and it is quite possible they could be down to 10 men at some point of the game if he doesn't control his anger.

:loon :lol :ok

[blackcrow]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November Liverpool @ 2.15 sportsbet Liverpool have started to put together a nice run and have lifted themselves away form the bottom of the ladder, to be a shot of going into the top half with a win here. Three wins and four draws means that they are unbeaten in their last seven EPL games, much ofthat due to Suarez who has scored eight goals in these last seven games, and five goals scored in his last four games. They have a win and three draws in their last four away games, and if they can tighten up their defence, then they can win this, as Swansea have conceded in their last ten EPL games and given up nine goals in their last five home games. Though Liverpool also have been conceding goals this season, their 3-0 wi over Wigan last week, may be a sign of things to come, where their defence was not really troubled. Liverpool have the better form coming into this game and the hottest striker in scoring goals at the moment, and like Suarez to be the difference here 29-55 (-16.73)

[neilovan]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November

So what are you going with? Overs at the top' date=' unders here, its pretty vague?[/quote'] Well I have them over 2.5 and I like the bet. It was a double, the 1st leg has already won. So if I don't get greedy I can cover my stake, and still have a win to nothing. I just win less or I break even, and I'm undecided which way to go (let it ride or reduce exposure). I have quiet a large bet here for me, and I'm just a little tempted to lessen my risk. I used to day trade shares, and when things were going really badly, my dad would say ..... "do the research and analysis, make your decisions........and then do exactly the opposite. You'll be just fine" :loon

[IAmGooner]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November Blackcrow is on Liverpool AGAIN? Everybody pile into Swansea on the handicap!!!!!......:p Think a draw is a good possibility myself, actually feel Liverpool should be priced a little higher than 2.1ish but then I am one who believes they are a completely average side. Havent made a single bet this weekend though and wont today either.

[garyfinny]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November Can't see any merit in taking Liverpool at this price - sure, they have picked up in the league a little but nowhere near what the odds are suggesting - IMO a average team with a few outstanding individuals. Of course, this is going to make them top half material, but nowhere near the likes of City, Chelsea, United, not even Everton for that matter. Huge disparity of prices there - Everton kicked off around 2.3 away at Wigan, and it isn't too tough to argue that Swansea are a little better than Wigan and Everton are a little better than Liverpool. Everton away at Fulham (same points as Swansea + played a game more) was 2.7. With no massive team news, there is a lot of people siding with Liverpool on name alone. It's too simplistic to say that Williams might get sent off because he slated Suarez in the programme. There must be hundreds of players playing each other each week that probably bear just as bad grudges resulting from previous bad blood and they don't get sent off.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November Yes, I agree and looking at the prices right now, I've decided to get involved. Liverpool are priced between 2.00-2.10 and really I would have them closer to 2.50 in what I would deem a pretty close match on paper and I expect it to play out like that aswell. Both sides have been hit and miss, home advantage for Swansea, settled style of play. Liverpool are improving no doubt but I would always be cautious when backing them, I dont trust Liverpool and opposing them in some capacity has been my most profitable strategy in the last 2 seasons. Yes they might win today but I am willing to go with Swansea who are priced at 3.80 at Pinnacle in what I'd deem a close match. Let's see. I have Suarez in my fantasy side so maybe there will be a silver lining should Pool actually win. Swansea +0.5 AH vs Liverpool @ 1.862 (Pinnacle:3pts)

[odoon]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November Liverpool are far too short here,below Swansea in the table, bookies are over rating Liverpool big time. Suarez will be a threat as usual,but i see a open game,so BTTS looks the bet.

[vinnyno10]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November These two met in the league cup only recently where Swansea beat them 3:1 at Anfield.. Having already gotten the better of them I can't see why Swansea wouldn't score here, as they have done 5/6 times at the Liberty Stadium this season. Swans also beat them 1:0 last season in this fixture. As for Liverpool most of you have already pointed out that they are starting to look more and more like a team everyone would expect them to be. If Suarez is in the mood then we can't really argue about the outcome of this match, he is a real handfull.. BTTS should come in easily, although there is more value in backing OVER 2.5 goals @1.75 currently with PP :hope

[Ricochet]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November This seems like a very unpredictable game with neither team able to find any consistency. As already mentioned emotions will be running high as Williams has bad-mouthed Suarez; this may backfire as Suarez needs little motivation to get going. With Brendan Rodgers returning to his old club both sides will be fired up and I can see this being a good watch for the neutral as both sides like to get the ball down and play (hopefully the pitch will allow them to do so). In the 6 Swansea home games this there has been an average of 3.17 goals; in Liverpool's 5 away games the average toal goals has been 3.60. Liverpool can always get goals with a player like Suarez in their side, especially when he is up for it and he will be fairly fresh having only made a cameo appearance in Thursday's EUL game at home to Young Boys. Swansea are also finding the back of the net frequently, in particular Michu. All things taken into consideration I can see a score draw here. 10pts - Draw @ 3.6 SkyBet 5pts - Correct Score: 1-1 @ 7.5 VictorChandler 5pts - Correct Score: 2-2 @ 15.0 VictorChandler

[allthethings]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November

Most likely it is going to be a mud bath of a pitch tomorrow given the amount of rain that we are having right now. In such situations the price on overs usually lengthens close to kick off once punters see the pitch on tv and start backing unders. Does it actually make it more likely to be unders if the pitch and conditions are bad. I dont really know.

I don't think so. From what I've seen, there's a real tendency toward unders in games with lots of wind, but a muddy pitch affects defenders equally, and doesn't have a huge effect on scoring. It might hinder a passing team from playing their usual crisp game, but that can lead to scores the other way.

[Reverand_bookmaker]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November

This seems like a very unpredictable game with neither team able to find any consistency. As already mentioned emotions will be running high as Williams has bad-mouthed Suarez; this may backfire as Suarez needs little motivation to get going. With Brendan Rodgers returning to his old club both sides will be fired up and I can see this being a good watch for the neutral as both sides like to get the ball down and play (hopefully the pitch will allow them to do so). In the 6 Swansea home games this there has been an average of 3.17 goals; in Liverpool's 5 away games the average toal goals has been 3.60. Liverpool can always get goals with a player like Suarez in their side, especially when he is up for it and he will be fairly fresh having only made a cameo appearance in Thursday's EUL game at home to Young Boys. Swansea are also finding the back of the net frequently, in particular Michu. All things taken into consideration I can see a score draw here. 10pts - Draw @ 3.6 SkyBet 5pts - Correct Score: 1-1 @ 7.5 VictorChandler 5pts - Correct Score: 2-2 @ 15.0 VictorChandler

Yeah my first impression of the game was exactly this. Swansea have kicked into gear of late and just dont see them losing to liverpool at home. Liverpool are fairly solid defensively with reina back so can see it being more like 1-1 or maybe even 0-0. Draw @ 12/5 with william hill is my bet

[neilovan]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November Wow, what a stinker of a game. The day I back that Suarez to score he fires blanks. 1st half shot that hit the crossbar was pivotal moment :wall

[IAmGooner]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November

Yes, I agree and looking at the prices right now, I've decided to get involved. Liverpool are priced between 2.00-2.10 and really I would have them closer to 2.50 in what I would deem a pretty close match on paper and I expect it to play out like that aswell. Both sides have been hit and miss, home advantage for Swansea, settled style of play. Liverpool are improving no doubt but I would always be cautious when backing them, I dont trust Liverpool and opposing them in some capacity has been my most profitable strategy in the last 2 seasons. Yes they might win today but I am willing to go with Swansea who are priced at 3.80 at Pinnacle in what I'd deem a close match. Let's see. I have Suarez in my fantasy side so maybe there will be a silver lining should Pool actually win. Swansea +0.5 AH vs Liverpool @ 1.862 (Pinnacle:3pts)

WIN Happy enough with that, clear value on Swansea from what I can see and the price was enough to tempt me in on a handicap.

[vinnyno10]

Re: Swansea City v Liverpool > Sunday 25th November

These two met in the league cup only recently where Swansea beat them 3:1 at Anfield.. Having already gotten the better of them I can't see why Swansea wouldn't score here, as they have done 5/6 times at the Liberty Stadium this season. Swans also beat them 1:0 last season in this fixture. As for Liverpool most of you have already pointed out that they are starting to look more and more like a team everyone would expect them to be. If Suarez is in the mood then we can't really argue about the outcome of this match, he is a real handfull.. BTTS should come in easily, although there is more value in backing OVER 2.5 goals @1.75 currently with PP :hope

What a joke of a game, there are Blue Square players better than that current Liverpool team. Suarez and Sterling are the only decent players there, the rest are brain dead, the manager is amongst the worst in the league Team and its fans living in the past. They slowed the game down thinking they are fricken Barcelona, with players such as Henderson what was i thinking getting involved in a Liverpool game..