BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012

[The Saint]

1910 Kempton - Volcanic Wind - 5/1 - Bet 365 Hoping the second colours aren't significant. Was very impressed with his maiden victory over CD when he probably beat trees. Pleasing on the eye though and the way he pointed his toe would imply that the quick surface (I can't imagine Kempton haven't had rain) should suit. Led last time and will offer oppotunty for laying off in-running I would hope.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 *Johnny Castle - Lingfield 2:20* It's only run on polytrack was here at this course, and was 2nd at this trip. Even though it was 9th last time out, that was 9th of 26 behind Jack Dexter, which was a very competitive race. This is a drop in class, is unexposed on the surface, and Amanda Perrett is in form. *1 Point WIN @ 8/1 VC BOG*

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 2.20 Lingfield Kingscroft 1pt win @ 10/1 Bet365 Kingscroft has a cracking record on the all weather with 4 wins and 4 placed efforts from 9 runs. The only time he finished out of the frame was at this track over 1m in a class 2 race where he lost 3 places in the final 100yds of the race. He gets in this race off bottom weight and off a mark of 85. His highest win on turf came off a mark of 88 so considering he is a better all weather horse, he must have every chance of going close here. Mark Johnston has a great record at the track and this horse is well drawn in 3 to go from the front. He has the assistance of Joe Fanning who is excellent from the front, so I expect a big run from Kingscroft in what looks a very competitive race.

[egg]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 Livia's Dream #3.20 Lingfield# 66/1(Bet365) I know it's a longshot but i do think this filly is much better than she has shown thus far. She got bogged down in the mud at Windsor last time out and should be more at home on this surface. It must be tempting to go the handicap route with her but Ed Walker thinks a lot of her and is willing to risk her handicap mark for some black type. Whether she's good enough to win this contest is another thing but she should out run her odds and hopefully make the frame. .5pt e/w

[gstomlinson]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 2.20 Lingfield - Gold City Hugely competitive handicap this, but at the same time there are question marks against a lot of these runners which gives Gold City the potential chance to get back to winning ways here. Form has really stalled since he won on his first two starts last year, but has shaped with some promise in runs since, and the drop in class should be in his favour if he takes well to the AW track. Finished third in a Group 2 at Doncaster in September and can be excused for his latest run in much better company at Newmarket a few weeks ago. He's been gelded since then for his AW debut, and hopefully that should see his form improve. 1pt win @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 7.40 KEMPTON CAPONE @ 10/1 Paddy Power BOG .5ew Course record reads 2 wins 1 second and 1 third from 4 runs. Last run over this distance on the AW was beaten only a length in a Listed race. Drops to a class 3 today and his record below class 2 over this distance on the AW reads 3523111, 6f looks like his optimum distance and has only been out of the frame once in 6 runs in November.

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 14.50 Lingfield: Baheeja, 9/1 Bet365, win Baheeja finished fourth lto in her first start in a listed race over 6f. She seemed to be pulling a bit for the first two furlongs when she was tracking the eventual winner in second place. She looked to be going backwards about two furlongs out but she rallied and finished strongly to get fourth on the line, 2L behind the winner. That run would suggest the step up in trip to a mile will suit. Before that she had a four timer including a win on the a/w here over seven furlongs, her only run on an a/w surface. Trainer Roger Varian is having a great year on the a/w, with 18 winners from just 83 runners for a £11.79 lsp. He has a 23% strike rate at Lingfield over the last two years for a small profit. Jockey Neil Callan has a decent record here with a 16% strike rate from over 400 rides and he is also having a decent year on the a/w. Trainer and jockey have a great partnership together, with a 17% strike rate and a £30 lsp.

[cooleddy]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 3.10 stratford rossmore lad charlie longsdon in decent form has a decent record at stratford with chasing types,rossmore lad pulled up last three runs but drops in class today and this more his level this race wont take much winning .mr longsdon places his horses well so if rossmore lad can show some improvement can go close 0.5 pts e/w 9/1 bet365

[marko_polo]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 7:10 Kempton: Albaqaa 12/1 E/W @Bet365 Form figures show that he hasnt had the best of seasons so far. Perhaps having some excuses for some of those. But he has slipped below his last winning mark, and could be dangerous. Won a couple of big field handicaps last year, so is very capable of landing this or going close at decent price, even though he is the oldest horse in the race. PJ O'Gorman does well here with his horses with a 15% strike rate, yielding a profit of +18.38

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 110 Str: Ballycassel (5/2 BetVic) Decent card at Stratford today, especially the novice chase but the opening race looks tasty with the Twiston Davies horse Ballycassel taking on a Nicholls debutant and a Henderson hurdler. On this occasion i like Ballycassel, a fair run under his belt and his style of running will suit this track, stays well, races prominent and will like any more rain thats falling, if the other are not 100% match fit this horse will find them out.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 Bellitudo 12.50 Lingfield. 0.5 pts ew. Ran better than expected on debut and is expected to come on quite a bit from that run. The trip and surface aren't a concern and although it's a very unexposed race and anything could improve to be anything, the current prices make us a good value bet. Should be fighting out the finish. 10/1 William Hill (bog)

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 Lingfield 2.50 - Sentaril (1pts win, 11/4 Stan James) A good listed race here at Lingers but I feel Sentaril could just be a different class to these. Solid form this year and looks to me as though a mile shouldn't be a problem it is her AW debut but on a class angle she sticks out to me here also Graham Lee on board is another plus and all bodes well for a big run.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 1450 lingfield 1pt win sentrail 11/4 pp has won twice before over 7 furlongs,and now has its first race on the all weather today,this could be break it needs,good jockey booking,and hopeful it can win today

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 BUCKING THE TREND 1.10 Stratford. 0.5 points each way. Did well last time and although needs to improve to win this, is more than capable and improvement is expected. The trip and ground should suit and Richard Johnson a decent booking. The race has plenty of pace about it, so all in all he should be fighting out the finish. 10/1 Blue Square.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 1:30 Hereford - Vasco De Ronceray - Back Looks nailed on here. Comes over from France having shown a really good level of form in bumpers and makes his British and hurdling debut here. Champion jockey McCoy up for the mount and he looks to have an almighty chance here 1pt win @ 2/9 Hills BOG

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 15.10 - Stratford - Joaaci @ 12/1 Bet365 BOG Not alot that takes my fancy today but with conditions testing at Stratford i feel that it could be worth siding with the outsider Joaaci in the 3m 4f chase. The trip is abit of an unknown for the majority of the field here but my selection should certainly cope with the stamina test. A one time smart chaser he has obviously had his issues over the years having not been seen much of late. The 12yo put his best effort for a long time in last time out though back in May, he finished a close 4th that day and if running to a similar level will certainly be in the mix here. Runs off a handicap mark of 98 with a 5lb claimer aboard and considering he was rated 152 in his day the mark could definatly prove leinient. Carries a nice low weight and if the rest of the field struggle to see out the trip i can definately see him taking advantage if on a going day.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 2.50 Lingfield - 1pt win Night Lily @ 8/1 (Bluesq) The fact this one has been running so well on turf bodes very well as she's much better on the polytrack. She goes especially well at Lingfield, winning 3 from 7 when running over this c&d and will relish the return to these conditions. She's far from out of it at the weights and the favourite may be better on deeper turf. Looks sure to run her race and can be finishing fast.

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 2:50 Lingfield - Love Your Looks - 0.5 pts EW (20/1, BetFred) Progressive type on the AW tracks which should suit this horse today although having never run at Lingfield before. Finished a neck behind today's market leader Moone's My Name at Newmarket and hopefully the change of surface may turn the tables. Worth an EW bet at the odds for me in what looks a very competitive race.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD - Thursday 1st Nov 2012 Hereford 4.00 - Unwanted gift - win at 11/4 bog betvictor Very poor field here and I'm going for the topweight as he's won over CD and is relatively young and lightly raced compared to most of the others The race he won was another poor affair and featured two of todays rival who both fell at the 2nd last leaving him clear by 70 lengths Hereford is a course with stiff fences so you don't want to be on an iffy jumper particularly in low grade affairs..............my horse has never fallen in his 20 races so I'll take him to get round whereas some of then other probably won't