October 15 - October 21

[CzechPunter]

Back Jurgen Melzer to win ATP Vienna for a 0.5/10 stake at 29.00 with Stan James Back Tommy Haas to win ATP Vienna for a 0.5/10 stake at 7.00 with Stan James Juan Martin del Potro is the favourite in Vienna, but I think that it would be ridiculous to back him at such a short price, especially since he is not going to push himself to the limit with all those big events coming up (he is returning from an injury break). Jurgen Melzer has won this event before, so this price looks huge considering he is going to return to familiar conditions. And Tommy Haas can do some damage in the form he is in right now as well, so the second half of my stake goes to him. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-vienna-betting-jurgen-melzer-can-get-quite-far-in-familiar-conditions Back Marcos Baghdatis to win ATP Stockholm for a 0.5/10 stake at 13.00 with Bet365 Back Kevin Anderson to win ATP Stockholm for a 0.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Bet365 Cannot really back the favourites with so many big events coming up (and they will both need some rest after those decent runs in Asia), so I am going to go with the underdogs. Baghdatis has been playing well recently and should have a good run in him in my opinion, while Kevin Anderson might be able to make a good run indoors with his playing style as well. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-stockholm-betting-the-underdogs-might-be-able-to-do-some-damage-in-sweden

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Robin Haase (-3 games) to bt. Marinko Matosevic. Odds 2.07 @ Pinnacle Today isn't a day full of value. The only one I could find up till now is this pick. A match between two similar ranked players, but not similar skilled ones. Like I have blogged before, Matosevic is a limited, one-dimensional player in my eyes. And I expect his ranking to plummet after February, because I don't expect him to be able to match his result at Delray Beach. On the other hand we have Robin Haase, like Matosevic not in real good form. He hasn't won a match since Winstom Salem against Davydenko. However he's had time to prepare and overthink after his loss to Troicki. I expect Matosevic to go full throttle and bash the ball as hard as he can. Haase is a much complete player, and if this goes to a bashing fight, Haase will be the one that can handle it a lot better. Also another think to hold into account, the only encounter between the two was won by Haase in a quite comfortable fashion: 63 64 and that was in March 2012.

[fijiboi]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Hasse definitely not in great nick. New here but big thanks to all the analysis. Top stuff.

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Back Albert Ramos (+3.5) to beat Ricardas Berankis for a 2/10 stake at 1.90 with Pinnacle Ramos might be unproven indoors, but I am willing to have a small punt to see how he is going to perform in this particular match. Ricardas Berankis is still very much up and down player, so this looks like a great chance for the Spaniard to show that he is fully capable of winning on fast courts. The outright bet looks tasty as well, but I am only going to go for the handicap this time. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ramos-vs-berankis-betting-do-not-underestimate-the-clay-court-specialist-in-stockholm Back Xavier Malisse to beat Grega Zemlja for a 2/10 stake at 1.86 with Pinnacle This is obviously all about whether Malisse is fully fit already, but I would say that he should be given that he has decided to play in Vienna. And, if he is indeed fully fit and ready, he should be fully capable of outplaying the Slovenian in these conditions. Zemlja might be a solid player, but he has never done much in regular ATP events and Malisse should simply be too strong for him today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/malisse-vs-zemlja-betting-xavier-malisse-can-get-back-on-track-with-a-win-over-the-slovenian

[kidontop]

Re: October 15 - October 21 atp mosca:igor sijsling to beat andreas seppi.2.62 bet365,winning tournament 46 bf my connazzionale will find it very difficult to get to grips with the Dutchman. those in the know say that the Dutch might have vantaggi.riporto what I know now, I will try to inform and be more accurate

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Back Konstantin Kravchuk to beat Tatsuma Ito for a 2/10 stake at 2.50 with William Hill A match between two challenger-level players, so going with the massive price here. Kravchuk seems to be in great form right now, serving well and beating guys like Sela or Korolev. Ito is good from the baseline, but this surface is quick and he is going to struggle on return. A quick glance at his results shows that he has never been great against powerful guys with huge serves - and that is exactly what he will be up against today. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/kravchuk-vs-ito-betting-the-in-form-russian-can-get-yet-another-solid-victory-in-moscow Back Klara Zakopalova to beat Lucie Safarova for a 2/10 stake at 2.53 with Pinnacle The two are really close in terms of playing strength and the H2H record reflects that, standing at 4-4. However, I have to fancy Zakopalova today. Safarova has not been playing well for quite some time now, losing horribly against Niculescu and struggling even against relatively unknown youngsters, so it is hard to see her as such a big favourite in this match-up right now. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/safarova-vs-zakopalova-betting-klara-zakopalova-looks-value-against-lucie-safarova

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Istomin vs Rosol. Over 22.5 games. Odds: 1.90 @ Bet365 Great value here. I reckon Istomin should be the player to win, quality wise. I mean he loves the conditions with his nice serve and forehand. But actually he shouldn't be here anymore. Bjorn Phau was serving for the match and could have easily closed it out. But he didn't. But taking the last match and Shanghai into account, his form is all over the place. Everything just relies on how his serve is. Same actually goes for Rosol, who himself isn't in great form. However he's quite decent on this surface. Also a good serve and pretty good strokes. Had a decent win over Gimeno Traver in two tiebreaks. On first sight I would think Istomin should take the win, but odds far too low on that. Value is definitely on the over.

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Copil vs Almagro. Over 22.5 games. Odds: 2.11 @ Pinnacle Great odds on this line. Copil played a good match yesterday against clay player Del Bonis. He served well and his groundstrokes were okay. Copil isn't really a very good player but he did show recently that he is able to trouble top 50 players a bit. I think he should be able to put some pressurize Almagro on this surface. Almagro on the other hand isn't really in form losing to Ito and also losing to Haas, a match which he could have won. In general Almagro should win this, but Almagro is known for his mental instability and shot making game. Certainly now he isn't in top form he could easily lose a set or tiebreaker. Over is pure value here. Cipolla to bt. Gabashvili. Odds 1.88 @ Pinnacle This bet has value in my eyes. Cipolla isn't really a hardcourt player, but he has managed to get some wins. Watched him at St. Petersburg, wasn't great but in my eyes he should have enough grind in him to get a win against Gabashvili. Surface suits the Russian him more, but he has shown jack in the matches he played. I think odds should be more around 1.60 and I'm happy to take everything above 1.70 on him. Small stakes though.

[Atko]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Bit of an odd week, this, but going with this little number to kick off my participation: Dominic Thiem +1.5 sets (v Lukas Lacko) @ 2.25 with unibet This week will throw up some odd results. Not sure Thiem, a promising but as yet unproven Austrian teenager, can win this, but I suspect he has it in him to nab a set off Lacko. Lukas has been in really poor form of late. Went back to the Challengers and did okay in Tashkent but is mentally fragile and could easily cough up something here. The Austrian crowd will be behind Thiem and he did well in Kitzbuhel this summer, taking a set from Martin Klizan. Just think this holds a bit of value, considering the sort of week we're in. :hope

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Youzhny (-7 games) to bt. Rosenholm. Odds: 2.94 @ Pinnacle. In my eyes these odds are just pure value. Rosenholm is a nobody and will stay a nobody. This guy has no weapons at all and even loses on the Future Tour. Someone like Eric Prodon owns him 2-6 1-6. I watched him against Monfils. When the Frenchman actually did something that suits his level, Rosenholm was completely confused and couldn't do anything whatsoever. Monfils wasn't himself and had complete offday like we know he can have once in a while. Youzhny had a great match against Brian Baker, just to illustrate how his form is at the moment. Youzhny will put pressure on this mug on every single point. Hell, maybe this guy is even stupid enough hit the ball constantly to the backhand of the Russian.

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 15 - October 21 ​Hewitt to bt. Nieminen. Odds 2.34 @ Pinnacle. If it was not for the match yesterday I wouldn't have even thought about betting on Hewitt, just because the old fox is out of form. But against Anderson we saw a very determined Hewitt like we know from him. However he was defending really wel and his countershots were nice and punchy. On the other hand Nieminen was struggling aswell after Bangkok. However the lefty had a decent showing against Kamke. To be honest, both surface suit both players well and quality wise I would have them pretty even at the moment. The odds suggest otherwise. If this turns into a dogfight, and I know Hewitt will make it as such, the value is pure on Hewitt. Nieminen will look to hit as much angles as possible, but Hewitt's footwork is still on par. This can become a tight affaire but valuewise Hewitt is the guy to go for.

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Well done Ragnavetto :ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Back Simona Halep (-2.5) to beat Vesna Dolonc for a 2/10 stake at 1.90 with Bet365 Have to go with Halep on this handicap, which is a touch lower than at other bookies. I rate the Romanian a level above Dolonc in terms of talent and she really should be winning these matches. Her comeback against Petrova was stunning to say the least and she should take advantage of the fact that she is finally going to play a relatively weak opponent in a second round (her previous draws were much poorer). Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/halep-vs-dolonc-betting-simona-halep-to-defeat-vesna-dolonc-in-the-capital-of-russia Back Jerzy Janowicz (-3) to beat Carlos Berlocq for a 1/10 stake at 1.87 with Pinnacle If the statistics do not lie, Berlocq actually won his very first match indoors on Tuesday. Great performance that, but Janowicz should be a step too far for the clay court specialist that should have plenty of problems with keeping a big hitter like Janowicz at bay on a fast court. The Pole has finally arrived on the main tour this year and this looks like an excellent opportunity for him to show that he has what it takes to compete with the best. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/janowicz-vs-berlocq-betting-jerzy-janowicz-should-be-able-to-deal-with-the-tough-argentinian

[WinningTipster]

Re: October 15 - October 21 1 pick for today: ATP STOCKHOLM: STAKHOVSKY-LOPEZ OVER 22 GAMES @ 1.79 on pinnaclesports I think Stakhovsky is playing very well and he should make it a long close match against bookies' favorite Lopez

[bubblepower]

Re: October 15 - October 21 these moscow courts very slow and while i agree janowicz is fav i dont think he should be this short. takin berlocq 2.8 sportingbet

[1308]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Hi guys. I'm new on forum what do u think about Shvedova , at odds 2.30 this is for Maria 4th match in two months ,duo to back problems she retired in Beijing 19.09 She dont have any points to defend here, and lack of games ...

[chris666]

Re: October 15 - October 21

Hi guys. I'm new on forum what do u think about Shvedova , at odds 2.30 this is for Maria 4th match in two months ,duo to back problems she retired in Beijing 19.09 She dont have any points to defend here, and lack of games ...

Gotta go with you on this one, a convincing victory against Pavlyuchenkova on Tuesday. Bet365 has Shvedova at 6/4 or +2.5 @10/11 handicap betting. Good Luck and welcome to PL

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Baghdatis (-5.5 games) to bt. Falla. Odds 2.40 @ Pinnacle Odds are not in proportion. Like said in previous picks, Baghdatis' form is on the rise. He's growing toward to end of the season. High pressure and good spread were two keywords I expected and also saw in the match against Goffin. The poor Belgian didn't know what hit him. Against Falla I expect a similar match. Falla is a player without any real weapons. He could have easily lost the match against Jan Hajek. Last match played in Cincinnati was easily won 64 61. A same result today can easily happen.

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Karlovic vs Bogomolov. Over 23.5 games. 2.05 @ Pinnacle Good value at these odds, the over 22.5 is just pure gold at 1.76. I don't see how Bogomolov Jr. is going to easily break the service games of the huge Karlovic. On the other hand Bogomolov is playing some decent tennis. Saw some of his play yesterday. Wasn't that strong serving, but the rallies showed some decent form. Against Karlovic he will have much more chance to get into rythm. Why? Because Davydenko takes on the ball quite good and fast on return. Therefore it's harder to get into a service rythm or flow. Against Karlovic this will be much easier. Also he should hold his service games easily because he's showing some good spread in rallies, and the footwork of the big guy is terrible. This match will have atleast 1 tiebreak and I won't be surprised if this becomes a 7-6 6-7 7-6 or anything similar.

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Lol. Falla giving up because he's being destroyed. Lame.

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Tommy Haas (-5.5 games) to beat Levine. Odds: 2.53 @ Pinnacle I have no idea how Levine is going to trouble Haas. The German has been impeccable at Shanghai. Good serving, great striking of the ball. The American beat a poor Kubot and even lost to Authom and Goffin before that. Levine won't be able to bother Haas on the return. And Haas is also 2 notches above Levine in the rally. He doesn't possess a great serve, so how is he going to stop Haas from demolishing him? I have no idea. This is pure value.

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Tsonga vs Soeda. Under 20.5 games. Odds: 1.81 @ Pinnacle Nice line here. This match up on this surface is all in favour of Tsonga. The Frenchman is a flamboyant player and a real crowd pleaser. He'll take shots when he has the opportunity to do so, accompanied with a great serve and great groundstrokes make him a very good player. However he does tend to overcook certain balls when he's not feeling on par and taking too ambitious shots resulting in errors. However, this always starts with an opponent who tries to put Tsonga in those spots. With other words, to put off Tsonga off his game, you'll need to put pressure on him, annoy him. Soeda is totally not that person. The Japanese is a quite crafty player and quite likes this surface. However he likes to grind out points and build up points to finish it quite easily. His serve isn't that threatening so one break a set should be easily done.

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Back Edouard Roger-Vasselin to beat Ivo Karlovic for a 2/10 stake at 2.60 with BetVictor Looks like value to me at these odds. Karlovic certainly is not the force of old anymore and I can see the Frenchman finding an opening somewhere along the road, as he has been playing really well recently. It is likely to be a long match with only a few breaks, but it looks a lot like a 50/50 match to me given the Croat's recent struggles and I am willing to have a small punt on Roger-Vasselin at this price. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/roger-vasselin-vs-karlovic-betting-the-frenchman-can-take-his-decent-run-even-further Back Marinko Matosevic (+5) to beat Juan Martin del Potro for a 2/10 stake at 1.93 with Pinnacle Del Potro was really awful against Brands in his first match, so I am not really sure that he deserves to have this kind of handicap line against someone who is a lot like Brands in many respects. Big serve, big groundstrokes - Matosevic is just going to go out firing and should be able to keep this reasonably tight. Decent price as well. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/matosevic-vs-del-potro-betting-marinko-matosevic-can-cover-the-handicap-line-against-juan-martin-del-potro

[Striker]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Samantha Stosur v Klara Zakapalova Over 20.5 Games @ 1.88 [Pinnacle Sports]..Stake,1pt Think this match will be closer than the short odds on Stosur might suggest :sad

[DOUBLE THAT DOLLAR]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Edouard Roger-Vasselin vs Ivo Karlovic over 22.5 games @ 1.66 on Bet365 This line is awfully low, especially when Ivo Karlovic is involved in a tennis match. The big man can't move and relies on his booming serve. On the other hand we have Roger-Vasselin playing well and coming through with some nice wins. I can see both men holding serve with relative ease and sets will hopefully be resolved with at least one tie-break, if not more. 4/10 stake

[Regnavetto]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Stakhovsky (+4 games) to beat Tsonga. Odds: 1.91 @ Pinnacle Beautiful odds on this spread. Stakhovsky is in a good place. Playing confident aggressive tennis at the moment. I think this isn´t a very good match up for Tsonga. Like I said in my previous pick Tsonga can be agitated into making faults when being pressurized. Yesterday Soeda could have taken more than just a tiebreak from Tsonga if he played more aggressive, but that´s just not in his nature. I noticed that Tsonga has a hurt shoulder, don´t really know how that plays out for him. But taking into account that Stakhovsky is in a confident mood, with a good serve and aggressive play. Tsonga not in perfect shape. Also the last two recent matches in 2012 and 2011 weren´t won easily by Tsonga. I think this is just pure value.

[Atko]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Regnavetto, some good picks here, but can you post up your selections a bit earlier. A lot of them are being written just before the match is about to start, which doesn't allow people time to get on them. Thanks :ok

[Striker]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Venus Williams v Andrea Petkovic Under 21 games @ 1.91 [betOnline]..Stake,1pt Venus has been looking good this week,should close match out in straight sets

[CzechPunter]

Re: October 15 - October 21 Bad week for me, really cutting into the profits I have managed to get in the past ones. Nothing for me today, will be back tomorrow (hoping for Baghdatis to get the job done though).

[Merc]

Re: October 15 - October 21

Venus Williams v Andrea Petkovic Under 21 games @ 1.91 [betOnline]..Stake,1pt Venus has been looking good this week,should close match out in straight sets

Why don't you bet on 2-0 for Venus then? Still available @ 2.15 Unibet.