Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

[Sand87]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

Value is a matter of opinion. If you are looking for incorrect prices I suggest you don't try the most high profile game in the world this weekend, bookies are unlikely to be caught with their pants down in such a game are they? ;)

The last two seasons 85% of my bets were made on major league matches, those being EPL, Spanish, German and to a lesser extent Dutch and for those countries almost all bets were in the top tier so I believe that incorrect prices can be found. These matches, especially on Betfair but also at bookies, markets will move with the money and the money relates to the punters sentiment so there are many points where incorrect prices can be found. Some people refer to it as over reactions, those peaks and troughs. I think of it as market pyschology - it's a very real thing, not just in sport but in any market where money is exchanged. I seek out matches like this because of the money involved and the strong opinions, rather than being put off by it.

[HastGill1]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

The last two seasons 85% of my bets were made on major league matches' date=' those being EPL, Spanish, German and to a lesser extent Dutch and for those countries almost all bets were in the top tier so I believe that incorrect prices can be found. These matches, especially on Betfair but also at bookies, markets will move with the money and the money relates to the punters sentiment so there are many points where incorrect prices can be found. Some people refer to it as over reactions, those peaks and troughs. I think of it as market pyschology - it's a very real thing, not just in sport but in any market where money is exchanged. I seek out matches like this because of the money involved and the strong opinions, rather than being put off by it.[/quote'] Fair enough mate, I personally wouldn't bet too much on a game like this but I understand where you are coming from..I can't see there being a massive imbalance because there won't be sure opinion in such a game between two sides who are in good form, the over reactions you speak of won't exist. Perhaps a better game to take in-play..

[Sand87]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 there are gambles in almost any match. How often do you see any match, be it Arsenal v Chelsea or Yeovil v Bury kick off at the same odds they opened at? You just need to understand why they happen and when they happen and people find it easy to think the reasons are random, impossible to predcit and just one of those things. Or the fail safe of... ' it was team news'.

[Sand87]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 That last sentence, it's a very valid point but it sounded a bit flippant - I do not underestimate team news, it's a major factor in pre match prices but it is also one of the most over exaggerated factors.

[Hutcho_CFC]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 I think we will be happy with a draw here but have the capability to win it... It will be fiercely competitive but if you look at each section, i think chelsea are the clear better team. GK, cech wins this easily... Def: Closer, both have been solid, so i will give that as a draw with both defences being solid. Mid: Arsenal have the edge here, diaby looks good, and lampard and mikel are not good enough as the 2 holding... Ramires and Mikel were better vs stoke however as ramires should never ever be on the right wing. Att Mid: This goes to us as although arsenal has a clear talent in carzorla, we have Hazard, mata and Oscar all of whom are exceptional and we clearly have the edge in that department. Striker: Arsenal, as unfortunately Danny is injured (Not that RDM would start him anyway) meaning torres will start and he has gone missing. We will create a lot of chances however relying on torres to convert them is extremely worrying. As i said it will be close but 11/8 on chelsea with the DNB is the one to be on. Or the Unders as i see this being a more defensive game than the teams would suggest with both teams not wanting to lose thier unbeaten record to thier main rival.

[Sand87]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 I like the idea of comparing like for like but it isn't that easy because they work off each other. For example we all know Hazard is a quality player. But for the role he plays @ Chelsea he relies on quality from the back four, if he doesn't get it he does not have the permission to create it himself and so becoms secondary. IMO this is Chelseas problem all over the field. I doubt this will be a popular observation but having watched Cech for years I think he's losing it. Goalkeepers mature far later than outfield players but I believe he is slowing down, his enthusiasm is weaning and the past season and a bit he seems to be making more mistakes. He does not convince me anymore but does a superb quality keeper who loses a little suddenly come to the level of a very good keeper? I don't believe so, so he is still the better man. Can't have long left in the top flight though, IMO.

[Aidymac]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

I agree' date=' thought it was a strange thing to say when I read it. I took it as a general comment regarding Arsenal's struggles against a traditional big centre forward (which Chelsea obviously lack), certainly something to consider and shouldn't be so easily discarded in a game that is tough to get an accurate read on.[/quote'] My point is that Matteo has completely changed the way Chelsea play. They no longer play a game to suit the style of Drogba, that is why they bought Oscar, Mata and Hazard, they are trying to introduce a short pass and run game, so with the new style, Drogba would not fit into the team anyways, as they don't play route 1 anymore.

[ONEDUNME]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 They've had clever, skilful players in the past too. They've often played a passing game. The point that's been made is that is has never worked against Arsenal and they've only been successful against them when they've bought the big man on to add some physicality. Will it work tomorrow? Who knows.

[ThusPrider]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

I just can't see Chelsea coming to the Emirates and winning' date=' Di Matteo will **** his pants imo and park the bus, wait for counters.[/quote'] Trolololo

[kevshat]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 4pts Over 2.5 goals 10/11 Boylesports Games between these two last season were high scoring and I see no reason why this one won’t be either. There are so many good attacking players on show for both sides in this match and although Arsenal’s defence has improved I still don’t think it’s improved to the level that it is ultra reliable just yet. The Emirates is a big pitch where the attacking players have space to do their thing and that can ensure we see at least three goals here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/arsenal-vs-chelsea-betting-goals-can-be-high-on-the-agenda-at-the-emirates-stadium

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

the transition between the back 7 and front 4 of the side looking as disjointed as ever.

:rollin I like the way you painted that picture. But the reality is that it's not so untrue. Chelsea look like a very unbalanced team to me atm with the 3 number 10s all on the field at once and I think at the Emirates this gets exposed. Much more confident in a central pairing of Diaby/Arteta than in Lampard/Obi Mikel GL:ok

[saimon76]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 I would say this is a very unpredictable game, both will have an "easy" CL match coming, so can be focused with strength and power on this one. An early goal can open things up, or this can also end in 0-0 (which i think is unlikely). With a win here, Arsenal can really candidate for the title, and i see a lot of quality in midfield and attackin line for this team. I do not like to bet on over and goal, and prefer the 1X2 sign, but i will stay away from put money on this very hard games in england. Maybe i will put an x in a big accumulator.

[Abd El Kader french]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Hello Bonjour What do you think of the Under 2.5 @2.00 on BET365 I think boths have champions league match this week and they dont want to have any more injured. Ok it's 2 game against not a big team but in European league Big Club in this case are always careful i think So any reply for me before i bet it ? See you (sorry for my bad english)

[Jase82]

This is 2012, surely we all know by now that the only way to win at betting is not to bet on what you think will happen but to bet when you think the price is value. Other than myself, has anybody else considered this in this thread? I don't mean to sound egotistical but it is a little weird. I think the match will be over 2.5. I think Arsenal will win 3-1. I think there could be a goal in the first 10 minutes. I think Walcott will score more than one. I think I think I think...we all think. Try and convert it into numbers or you will lose to commission. It is true. So...who can say where they are spotting some incorrect prices? Opinions can be found in the pub.

Well what do you think is the value play? :) ..... This forum is built on opinions!

[Jase82]

Hello Bonjour What do you think of the Under 2.5 @2.00 on BET365 I think boths have champions league match this week and they dont want to have any more injured. Ok it's 2 game against not a big team but in European league Big Club in this case are always careful i think So any reply for me before i bet it ? See you (sorry for my bad english)

Welcome to PL :) Your English is fine.... I think some punters tipped under 2.5 goals earlier in the thread, so you may find some information there.....

[Abd El Kader french]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 The @2.00 for under is value for me ...I think .... :D

[Johnmccain]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Generally on early kick-offs on both Saturdays and Sundays I am more then tempted to throw a few quid on a 0 - 0 draw - especially with bet365 offering their money-back bore draw offer on Correct Score, Half Time/Full Time and Scorecast bets. I won a fair few quid last season by placing a small stake on a 0 - 0 draw and then an insurance policy of a Half Time/Full Time bet of draw at HT/Favourite to win at FT which would get refunded if its 0 - 0 but covers any late goals. Tottenham, in particular, really helped wallet last year. Anyway, I'm not too sure that this game will go like that. I can see Di Matteo being shown up here as the less tactically-experienced manager here. I do think that Arsenal's current form and ability to score - accentuated by the competition between strikers on who deserves to be given a place in the league side, their home advantage, and strong defence should be able to hold up against Chelsea. If I were to gamble on a score I would probably say a 1 - 0 home win and would also be tempted to put on a midfielder to score Arsenal's goal. Cazorla or Ramsay might offer some value here.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Interesting that Wenger has put Mertesacker on the bench with Vermaelen coming back alongside Koscielny. Mertesacker has been a rock this season and really showing the critics that despite moving like an oil tanker, he is a good defender. Wenger probably thinks we need pacy defenders against the likes of Hazard, Mata. I think this will go under 2.5 but have a feeling we'll win it narrowly.

[Abd El Kader french]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

Welcome to PL :) Your English is fine.... I think some punters tipped under 2.5 goals earlier in the thread, so you may find some information there.....

Ok thank you very much Jase ;)

[Aidymac]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

I like the idea of comparing like for like but it isn't that easy because they work off each other. For example we all know Hazard is a quality player. But for the role he plays @ Chelsea he relies on quality from the back four, if he doesn't get it he does not have the permission to create it himself and so becoms secondary. IMO this is Chelseas problem all over the field. I doubt this will be a popular observation but having watched Cech for years I think he's losing it. Goalkeepers mature far later than outfield players but I believe he is slowing down, his enthusiasm is weaning and the past season and a bit he seems to be making more mistakes. He does not convince me anymore but does a superb quality keeper who loses a little suddenly come to the level of a very good keeper? I don't believe so, so he is still the better man. Can't have long left in the top flight though, IMO.

Cech must have read your post. :p

[hebert10]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

Arsenal v Chelsea 4pts Arsenal to win @ 2.29 Paddypower 1pt 0-0 draw @ 12 Skybet Have to take Arsenal in this match. They have looked alot better overall to me this season and look like they have found the right balance between defense and attack. Chelsea haven't really impressed me with a 0-0 against QPR and needed Ashley Cole to score a winner against Stoke. Whats really impressed me about Arsenal is how they've played against the big teams, they managed an easy 2-0 win at Anfield which is never an easy place to go regardless of what kind of form Liverpool are in, and an away draw against City where they could have easily snatched all 3 points. Will be a close one being the derby and i think a goal could win this, but it could turn in to a bit of a midfield battle and just in case it does i'm going to take the 0-0 aswel.

Could have gone either way was a decent game though. 2012 Football Record: 13-23 (-5.51)

[MPLouis]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Finished Arsenal 1 Chelsea 2 Didn't see it, but listened to a lot of the BBC Five Live radio commentary. They said that Arsenal were impressive in the first half, but Chelsea were strong in the second and Arsenal faded. Did anyone see the game?

[hebert10]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

Finished Arsenal 1 Chelsea 2 Didn't see it, but listened to a lot of the BBC Five Live radio commentary. They said that Arsenal were impressive in the first half, but Chelsea were strong in the second and Arsenal faded. Did anyone see the game?

Torres scored from a cross with a decent finish, then Arsenal equalised with a good finish from Gervinho. Chelseas second was lucky was a cross that cleared everyone went in the far corner. Both teams had there chances though Torres could have had another and Giroud missed a great chance late on where he took on the keeper then hit side netting. Should have been a draw really was a tight game.

[RedDevil92]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

Finished Arsenal 1 Chelsea 2 Didn't see it, but listened to a lot of the BBC Five Live radio commentary. They said that Arsenal were impressive in the first half, but Chelsea were strong in the second and Arsenal faded. Did anyone see the game?

I saw the game: Arsenal was definitely better in the first half. Koscielny didn't cover Torres good enough and then Torres could score from a free-kick from Mata. Arsenal came back through Gervinho after an assist from Oxlade-Chamberlain, nice goal and deserved. In the second half, Arsenal was completely different, very poor. Koscielny made a own goal to help the Blues win at the Emirated. Podolski and Giroud both had one big chance but failed.

[Hutcho_CFC]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

I just can't see Chelsea coming to the Emirates and winning, Di Matteo will **** his pants imo and park the bus, wait for counters.

I AM SORRY MATE YOU WERE SAYING??????? WE KNOW WHAT WE ARE! WE KNOW WHAT WE AREEEEE!!!! CHAMPIONS OF EUROPE WE KNOW WHAT WE ARE!!!!!

[Aidymac]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

I AM SORRY MATE YOU WERE SAYING??????? WE KNOW WHAT WE ARE! WE KNOW WHAT WE ARE WE KNOW WHAT WE AREEEEE!!!! CHAMPIONS OF EUROPE WE KNOW WHAT WE ARE!!!!!

Well done Hutcho, good win! Matteo really pooped his pant eh? :rollin I got my unders bet wrong, in saying that it was not an extremely open game.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Apologies there, was way off with my thoughts on the match, unusually for me. Looks like chelsea will improve on their 6th place finish from last year. We were incredibly bad which didnt help and gifted poor goals.

[Hutcho_CFC]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 I also apologise for my off topic post. I am very happy.... Diaby going off was huge for arsenal. He has looked impressive in recent games.

[Hutcho_CFC]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Was a good game though. Need Fulham to hold on.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 We were awful, very slow paced. And the defending on the goals was really bad. Tbh Chelsea could have done more with the positions they got in, lucky Drogba wasnt around. Thought Chelsea wasted so many dangerous moments and didnt create a whole lot, neither did we. Deserved win for you anyway, we'll get revenge at Stamford Bridge, try and score 5 like last year!