Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

[staffy]

[TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Arsenal v Chelsea (12:45 BST) [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.37 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.45 [/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35 [/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.94 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Mustafa]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Even though both sides are unbeaten in the Premier League so far, Arsenal have been better in my opinion. They did not start well, dropping points against Stoke and Sunderland, but they played well against Liverpool and against Man.City. They have conceded just 2 goals, which is the best defensive record in the league. After departure of Van Persie they have started playing like a team and their game is no longer focused on one player and if they continue playing like they do at the moment I can see them challenging for the title. Chelsea, are not playing well at the moment and have plenty of problems in defense, conceding 2 goals against Reading, 4 against A.Madrid, not being able to hold 2-0 at home against Juventus. Arsenal have already played Liverpool and Man.City who I consider to be top sides and managed to get points against them. Chelsea are yet to play a top side and they were not that impressive against average teams, dropping points against QPR and managing narrow 1-0 win against Stoke. In conclusion I believe that Arsenal are in better shape at the moment and I believe that if they play like they did against City, they will record a win against the Blues. Arsenal @ 2.20 (5 units) ​Bet365

[western skies]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Usually, I'd be all over Chelsea at odds of around 3.5 now at the Emirates, but I have to agree with Mustafa in that we just don't inspire confidence at the moment, despite our unbeaten start. Scoring goals is a problem, with Torres still not receiving the sort of service he needs and the transition between the back 7 and front 4 of the side looking as disjointed as ever. On top of that, playing Hazard, Oscar, & Mata together uncovered a worrying lack of width against Stoke, whilst moving Ramires back out wide to compensate for this would mean reverting to a Lampard/Mikel midfield axis, which has looked far too slow and ponderous at times this season. I think Roberto Di Matteo has a real challenge on to pick an effective starting eleven from the rather unbalanced squad that has been assembled over the summer and, whilst the quality in the squad will probably be enough to overcome the teams that Chelsea "should" be beating, I think we'll continue to struggle against the real top sides. Arsenal are starting to have the look of a real top side about them again this season. It's early days, but their passing looks back to the level it was at 2 or 3 seasons back and Cazorla just looks like an inspired signing. The over reliance on van Persie wasn't necessarily a good thing for the rest of the team last season and already they look more balanced with the goals spread throughout the side and Diaby looking every inch the ready made replacement for Song. They need to keep him fit, I feel. It's a no bet for me, as I don't back against my own side, but if anyone fancies a bet on Arsenal either on the 1X2 or handicap markets, I certainly wouldn't be putting them off here. It's very hard to see Chelsea coming away from the Emirates with anything on current form.

[Aidymac]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 *Under 2.5 Goals - 2 Points @ 2.04 Betfair* This should be a closely contested encounter in a big derby game. Arsenal have been brilliant defensively so far this season, conceding only 2 goals in their last 5 Premier League games. That included two scoreless draws against Sunderland and Stoke, and they defended very well at the Etihad last weekend. 4 of their last 5 games have been under 2.5. Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 games, and only 1 of those games went over. They were unconvincing against Stoke last weekend, but managed to win 1-0. A lot points to unders here. The last time they met it finished 0-0 here at the Emirates and i think both sides are faring a lot better defensively now than in the past couple of years. Over even money looks good value to me, should be around 1.83 in my opinion.

[ThePerfectOne]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Mustafa -- I think Chelsea shares the same record (both have scored 9 and conceded 2). I don't understand, though, how you think that beating Stoke with 1-0 is a case against Chelsea (they have played some wonderful when Arsenal drew Stoke (I do realise that Arsenal was playing away, but still). Even though throwing a 2-0 is of course a weakness, drawing against one of the best sides in Europe right now who are enjoying an unbeaten streak of 44 games in Serie A (and a winning strike that ended just last night) should really count as a good result. The actual picture is Chelsea 2-2 Juventus --- Arsenal 2-1 Montpellier. The Super Cup was more like a glorified friendly (the euro-version of the community shield). I don't think it's true that Chelsea isn't playing well at the moment. I think it's a vision that's created from losing the community shield and the super cup. Sure they are making some mistakes, but if you take these glorified friendlies out, the mistakes boil down to Cech's mistake against Reading and Obis' against Juventus, not more than anyone else's. They are playing some really good football. They are of course having problems in the front, but so is Arsenal (have people seen Gervinho against City?). I wouldn't hesitate for a minute to take this Chelsea at this price.

[Mustafa]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

Mustafa -- I think Chelsea shares the same record (both have scored 9 and conceded 2). I don't understand, though, how you think that beating Stoke with 1-0 is a case against Chelsea (they have played some wonderful when Arsenal drew Stoke (I do realise that Arsenal was playing away, but still). Even though throwing a 2-0 is of course a weakness, drawing against one of the best sides in Europe right now who are enjoying an unbeaten streak of 44 games in Serie A (and a winning strike that ended just last night) should really count as a good result. The actual picture is Chelsea 2-2 Juventus --- Arsenal 2-1 Montpellier. The Super Cup was more like a glorified friendly (the euro-version of the community shield). I don't think it's true that Chelsea isn't playing well at the moment. I think it's a vision that's created from losing the community shield and the super cup. Sure they are making some mistakes, but if you take these glorified friendlies out, the mistakes boil down to Cech's mistake against Reading and Obis' against Juventus, not more than anyone else's. They are playing some really good football. They are of course having problems in the front, but so is Arsenal (have people seen Gervinho against City?). I wouldn't hesitate for a minute to take this Chelsea at this price.

You might be right that Chelsea are playing nice football, but in my opinion Arsenal are a better side now without Van Persie. But the one thing that worries me a bit is that last night Chelsea beat Wolves 6-0 in the League Cup.

[sajtion]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 in case of this match i think chelsea has real match winners and should be able to win this game. they will be high on confidence after trashing opponents in cup on tuesday. arsenal will be good this season but they don't have same experience as chelsea so for that reason i will be backing away team which is 3.30 now with william hill

[phelanedward2]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 I can see this match being highly competitive with a lot of goals actually, both teams seem to be finding the net recently I reckon it will be a very attacking game. Score draw I reckon, 2-2 wouldn't be a bad bet.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 I just can't see Chelsea coming to the Emirates and winning, Di Matteo will **** his pants imo and park the bus, wait for counters. I'll do a write-up later in the week but right now I'd side towards unders and arsenal win/low-scoring draw. I do think Chelsea are in a false position right now, have been unimpressed with them in recent weeks and although they are top, their schedule have been piss easy. Right now I am sure we are a better team than Chelsea and playing better, regardless of the table which is skewed as we went to Stoke, Man City and Liverpool in our first 5 games.

[Snepke1990]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 I'm going for Chelsea DNB @2.50 This can go either way, but the price is to good to ignore for Chelsea.

[booj1893]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 arsenal to sneak a 1 goal victory currently 11/4 with skybet, can't see there being much between the two sides but think arsenal are much improved this year and will have just eough to get over the line

[Sand87]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 The value here is in backing Arsenal. Pinnacles were 2.290 earlier but now the best price is Betfair. Couple of bookies going 2.25 but they won't let you match anything above a few bangers. I came up with a price for Arsenal of 2.12 but that was before I learned about Walcotts desire to play solely as striker and after watching him score 2 last night and, IMO, play a very good game I have to reduce that so anything over 2.08 is a good back. It's difficult to convert into a rating what effect a position move would have on a team. Add to the mix Arsenal got a well deserved draw at City and they played some very talented football and are now more than capable of fighting for at least 3rd place (I've heard plenty of talk of 1st but I don't think so) I think the morale for the match will be incredible and it's a home game for them. Chelsea just do not inspire me, not at home and certainly not away. I've had some arguments with Chelsea fans over Ivanovic. I think so far this season he has been incredibly careless, it's like his focus is not there. Not a good thing for someone as important as him. If Terry and Lampard start I'm laying them big time - I don't care what the fans say, it is my opinion that these two are the most negative players in the squad and watching Chelsea play without them can be like watching a different team. Sure, they're experienced and keep a level head but do they play positive football? Pfff. Value is on: Arsenal @ 2.24 EDIT:Just heard about Terry 4 match ban :D

[Turkish]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Before I start I have looked around all the forums and threads and I couldnt find an answer to my question.I'm also in full knowledge that this is isnt the thread for my question.So if everyone can bear with me for a second I would very much appreciate it. The question is : I've placed a bet tonite of 5 matches and choose the trebles (3lü) option and paid approx. 4 £ for it and I won 35 £ from it. What I couldnt understand is THE CALCULATION of the bet. The photo of the bet is below.Thanks to especially the Moderator and to everyone else for their http://www.flickr.com/photos/60308516@N03/8028090958/

[Jase82]

Before I start I have looked around all the forums and threads and I couldnt find an answer to my question.I'm also in full knowledge that this is isnt the thread for my question.So if everyone can bear with me for a second I would very much appreciate it. The question is : I've placed a bet tonite of 5 matches and choose the trebles (3lü) option and paid approx. 4 £ for it and I won 35 £ from it. What I couldnt understand is THE CALCULATION of the bet. The photo of the bet is below.Thanks to especially the Moderator and to everyone else for their http://www.flickr.com/photos/60308516@N03/8028090958/

Turkish have you tried posting this question in the general betting help forum? Making multiple posts on the same question doesn't help....

[viko1905]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

EDIT:Just heard about Terry 4 match ban :D

Then u must hear also that there is 2 weeks period for appeal and the ban won't start before the end of this period, and if Terry decide to appeal in the next 2 weeks the period extend ;) Two words for the match. Comparing the teams form and results to the score its stright to go for Chelsea. The only thing that bother me is the weekness of their defence.Hazard and Mata are obviously not worse than Arteta and Casorla. Arsenal have had good games against both Liverpool and City but the main difference about those games and the match against CFC is that they weren't favorites in those games. We all know that Arsenal have got some psychological issues when they're claimed as favorites.In fact Arsenal won just once against Chelsea for last 10 times they hosted them.

[bubblepower]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 saw a interesting stat today out of last 33 games between these 2 chelsea without drogba won 0 draw 9 lose 13 with drog w7 d3 l1 now obviously teams are different today ( and statistics are usually bollox :D ) but it does reinforce a view i have about chelsea this season so far. I know the points on the board so far looks rosy but I havnt been that impressed. The whole set up around Torres, a man devoid of confidence who wont put his hand up for a penalty , looks like backfiring at some point and i hope today is the day. To see Arsenal with a solid defense is a revelation and after their first 2 games they seem to have got the hang of scoring. I do think the game may suit chelsea who do love a counter but all in all believe Arsenal will will be too strong. Happy to take the minus .25 1.91

[Aidymac]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

saw a interesting stat today out of last 33 games between these 2 chelsea without drogba won 0 draw 9 lose 13 with drog w7 d3 l1 now obviously teams are different today ( and statistics are usually bollox :D ) but it does reinforce a view i have about chelsea this season so far. I know the points on the board so far looks rosy but I havnt been that impressed. The whole set up around Torres, a man devoid of confidence who wont put his hand up for a penalty , looks like backfiring at some point and i hope today is the day. To see Arsenal with a solid defense is a revelation and after their first 2 games they seem to have got the hang of scoring. I do think the game may suit chelsea who do love a counter but all in all believe Arsenal will will be too strong. Happy to take the minus .25 1.91

But Drogba is not part of Chelsea anymore, you can't use that statistic to be fair.

[bubblepower]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Isnt he ? :D but I do take your point. why it interested me is that his current replacement Mr torres is not the sort of player that i think chelsea need in big games like this a big (diving ) lump who can hold the ball up and put the ball in the net rather more frequently. Perversely it does seem to me that the current Gunners set up is very Mourinho like and im impressed by the whole deal so far.

[Aidymac]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

Isnt he ? :D but I do take your point. why it interested me is that his current replacement Mr torres is not the sort of player that i think chelsea need in big games like this a big (diving ) lump who can hold the ball up and put the ball in the net rather more frequently. Perversely it does seem to me that the current Gunners set up is very Mourinho like and im impressed by the whole deal so far.

Well he plays in China, so i can't see how it is a relevant stat to use. I do think Chelsea will find it tough though, and Arsenal are deserved favs. That is why i went for Under 2.5, don't think there will be many goals in it.

[bubblepower]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

Well he plays in China' date=' so i can't see how it is a relevant stat to use. I do think Chelsea will find it tough though, and Arsenal are deserved favs. That is why i went for Under 2.5, don't think there will be many goals in it.[/quote'] I am aware hes in China earning gazillions a week. and just to clarify it probably isnt a relevant stat along with all others stats that go deeply into the past.what it did make my think if they couldnt deal with arsenals previous defences without him this one seems so much better. anyway we seem to be on the same track and i may well join you on a bit of unders as well. And after all this no doubt 3-0 Torres hatrick may be worth a saver :D

[Sand87]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Torres would struggle big time to score once against Arsenal of old. Getting a hat-trick against their new improved and, for once, capable defence is as ludicrous as his £50mill fee :D The player to watch will be Walcott.

[Aidymac]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

Torres would struggle big time to score once against Arsenal of old. Getting a hat-trick against their new improved and, for once, capable defence is as ludicrous as his £50mill fee :D The player to watch will be Walcott.

Walcott may not start. He has not played a full match yet this season, played 19 mins against City, 17 mins v Southampton, didn't play v Liverpool, 19 mins v Stoke... You will be watching him on the bench!

[Sand87]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 He seems pretty confident he will play a part in the match. It doesn't matter if it's only 20 minutes I still want to see how he plays, he wants to be a consistent first 11 striker. Arsene has said he needs to be patient for this but that he was impressed with his game against Coventry which may suggest he is not far from making the switch and he isn't going to do that without Walcott playing in that role or playing more often. IMO?

[Doles83]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Think Chelsea will come not to lose this-so unders looks tempting (even though all this talk of Arsenals new found defensive resillience is yet to be proven against the main test.....time. 4 games in) They are capable of going uber negative when they need to chelsea. I cant make a case for them winning at all.

[hebert10]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 Arsenal v Chelsea 4pts Arsenal to win @ 2.29 Paddypower 1pt 0-0 draw @ 12 Skybet Have to take Arsenal in this match. They have looked alot better overall to me this season and look like they have found the right balance between defense and attack. Chelsea haven't really impressed me with a 0-0 against QPR and needed Ashley Cole to score a winner against Stoke. Whats really impressed me about Arsenal is how they've played against the big teams, they managed an easy 2-0 win at Anfield which is never an easy place to go regardless of what kind of form Liverpool are in, and an away draw against City where they could have easily snatched all 3 points. Will be a close one being the derby and i think a goal could win this, but it could turn in to a bit of a midfield battle and just in case it does i'm going to take the 0-0 aswel.

[Sand87]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 This is 2012, surely we all know by now that the only way to win at betting is not to bet on what you think will happen but to bet when you think the price is value. Other than myself, has anybody else considered this in this thread? I don't mean to sound egotistical but it is a little weird. I think the match will be over 2.5. I think Arsenal will win 3-1. I think there could be a goal in the first 10 minutes. I think Walcott will score more than one. I think I think I think...we all think. Try and convert it into numbers or you will lose to commission. It is true. So...who can say where they are spotting some incorrect prices? Opinions can be found in the pub.

[ONEDUNME]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

saw a interesting stat today out of last 33 games between these 2 chelsea without drogba won 0 draw 9 lose 13 with drog w7 d3 l1 now obviously teams are different today ( and statistics are usually bollox :D ) but it does reinforce a view i have about chelsea this season so far. I know the points on the board so far looks rosy but I havnt been that impressed. The whole set up around Torres, a man devoid of confidence who wont put his hand up for a penalty , looks like backfiring at some point and i hope today is the day. To see Arsenal with a solid defense is a revelation and after their first 2 games they seem to have got the hang of scoring. I do think the game may suit chelsea who do love a counter but all in all believe Arsenal will will be too strong. Happy to take the minus .25 1.91

But Drogba is not part of Chelsea anymore, you can't use that statistic to be fair.

Why can't you use that stat? If it's true (and I don't know whether it is or not) it says that Chelsea struggle to beat Arsenal without a player of the type of Drogba which is a valid comment as they won't have such a player for tomorrow's game. Certainly the comments is no less valid than the comments that were being made on the head to head results when Man City played Liverpool the other week which went back about ten years when not one of the current City players would have been playing for them.

[Sand87]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012 To be a true comparison the teams would have to be identical with the exception of Drogba. However, it is a very useful statistic. They don't mesh completely but the difference (squad rotation with both teams) would be negligible, a small percentage of a 1 goal expectation so I think it is a more than fair stat to raise and if correct I think bubblepower should get a little praise for raising it.

[HastGill1]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

This is 2012, surely we all know by now that the only way to win at betting is not to bet on what you think will happen but to bet when you think the price is value. Other than myself, has anybody else considered this in this thread? I don't mean to sound egotistical but it is a little weird. I think the match will be over 2.5. I think Arsenal will win 3-1. I think there could be a goal in the first 10 minutes. I think Walcott will score more than one. I think I think I think...we all think. Try and convert it into numbers or you will lose to commission. It is true. So...who can say where they are spotting some incorrect prices? Opinions can be found in the pub.

Value is a matter of opinion. If you are looking for incorrect prices I suggest you don't try the most high profile game in the world this weekend, bookies are unlikely to be caught with their pants down in such a game are they? ;) Chelsea look disjointed to me as a side and I expect them to be involved in a fair few high scoring games this season, the attacking aspect of their game is fairly fluid, Hazard, Oscar, Mata, Torres can all interchange and cause damage but I will be interested in who Di Matteo picks in the def CM positions; -----------------------------------Mikel--------Ramires/Lamps------------------------- Hazard-----------------------------------Oscar/Lamps----------------------------Mata -------------------------------------------Torres-------------------------------------- Mikel is a given and I would expect Ramires to be alongside him, he will be concerned by the attacking ability Arsenal have on show and given Arsenals history of struggling against rugged, defensive outfits I think that DM pairing would be a sensible play. Dropping Lampard would be a big call as would playing Oscar, Lampard wouldn't be the choice of most Chelsea fans I think, Oscar is more liable to produce a moment of magic but is inexperienced in big Prem games Lampard would be the safe choice but it will be an interesting selection. Given that Chelsea look so open home and away it would take a brave man to bet them, they are top of the league but have had an easy run of games so far for me. They weren't impressive after the first 10 minutes against Wigan and drew 0-0 against QPR, I wouldn't be rushing to back them at 3.6 but would you back Arsenal at 2.3? I don't see Chelsea setting up too defensively, Di Matteo seems to have set himself up for free flowing football which is what the owner demands, this will bring rewards but Arsenal away is a dangerous place to go with such a philosophy, Cazorla, Podolski, Walcott/Chamberlain, Gervinho/Giroud, there is plenty of attacking ability on display and Arsenal are certainly better suited to play against teams that attack them. I would go for over 2.5 goals in this one, 1.9 is a half decent price and I was expecting lower.

[HastGill1]

Re: Arsenal v Chelsea 29th September 2012

Why can't you use that stat? If it's true (and I don't know whether it is or not) it says that Chelsea struggle to beat Arsenal without a player of the type of Drogba which is a valid comment as they won't have such a player for tomorrow's game. Certainly the comments is no less valid than the comments that were being made on the head to head results when Man City played Liverpool the other week which went back about ten years when not one of the current City players would have been playing for them.

I agree, thought it was a strange thing to say when I read it. I took it as a general comment regarding Arsenal's struggles against a traditional big centre forward (which Chelsea obviously lack), certainly something to consider and shouldn't be so easily discarded in a game that is tough to get an accurate read on.