World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

[HastGill1]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

Got quite a lot on tonight, I like these qualifiers, I find them far more predictable than domestic football and as such my stakes increase significantly, this obviously doesn't mean they are sure winners though! I'm backing short prices tonight, are they value? I see the word banded about a lot on here and not really sure most people understand what it actually means, I back events I'm pretty sure will happen and you certainly won't lose money backing either of these long-term, unfortunately when the bookies get stung like bet365 did on Andorra not scoring at a crazy 1.72 on Friday they tighten up by the Tuesday games but the relative difference between their performances home and away also needs to be taken into account. I will put these together even though I'm playing them both as singles, San Marino are the worst International side I've ever seen, in fact if you watch tonight I'm sure you will be surprised too. They haven't improved and against sides of real quality they get ripped apart at will. I'm not sure Montenegro fall into this catagory though their away record over the years is poor when compared to their home record but they have some real quality in Vucinic (who I would virtually guarantee scores tonight) and Jovetic. San Marino will keep it tight for as long as possible like they always do, but tire in the second half of games, its an obvious play but most goals second half is also worth a small bet imo, it might be as close as 0-0 or 1-0 at half time, I wouldn't rule that out, but their positional play goes to pot from the 70th minute onwards if they are 2 or 3 down as the tiredness kicks in. They have no attacking threat at all, it would take some horrific defending to see them score, I would predict 3 to 4-0 if pushed. Andorra are pretty similar, probably a better side but not too much in it. Romania had a good 2-0 win at an improving Estonia game 1 and I think a fair few people would have viewed that as a potential banana skin, so they will come into this one 99% sure they will take 6 points out of 6 into the break. They should control possession and hopefully limit Andorra to very little possession in their half, I expect Romania to win 3 or 4-0 but generally prefer clean sheet bets to these handicaps. Romania seem to be improving somewhat and I think they will see this off comfortably enough. Romania Clean Sheet - 1.3 - bet365 - 20 Points :ok Montenegro Clean Sheet - 1.28 - bwin - 15 Points :ok This is my last bet and I had a few I was looking over for this with Bosnia, Turkey and Poland all looking to have similar matches at similar odds, I've gone with Poland mainly because think Moldova are a very poor side, and Poland at home should win by a 2 goal margin at least. Coach Fornalik is likely to go with a more attacking side partnering Lewandowski with either Saganowski or Sobiech, attacking mid Obraniak was sent off in the decent 2-2 draw away with Montenegro and is suspended. Moldova have little attacking threat but are pretty dogged usually and I wouldn't expect an easy ride for Poland, they started off well though and will be confident of getting a result against a side flying down the rankings, time of the first goal will be crucial as always with these bets. Poland -1.0,-1.5AH - 1.51 - Pinnacle - 10 Points :ok Poland -1.5AH - 1.74 - Ladbrokes - 5 Points:ok

Full house, missed out on the better prices in the Montenegro game but that's all part of betting, you take what you think is a fair price.

[hebert10]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

Israel v Russia-Russia to win @ 21/20 William Hill 8/10 Units I like this Russia team and on there day feel they could beat anyone. In Capello they now have a coach who is a proven winner (forget England they need a miracle not a manager) and can really do something with this Russia squad. Russia looked impressive on friday against a poor northern ireland team who couldn't really give the russians a test and im expecting the same with Israel. Russia have lost only 1 in there last 19 games whilst Israel havn't managed a win in the last 5. At 21/20 i feel Russia are definitely worth a few quid here. Austria v Germany Really fancy the germans to do well at the next few tournaments as they have a really strong team. The group they've been handed has been kind to them and i'd expect them to win the group very easily, maybe even with a 100% record. They should be far too strong for this Austria team who have never beaten them in the head to head. France v Belarus France have lost only 2 of there last 27 games and they way i see it they will want to qualify as smoothly as possible and a home win over Belarus here should be comfortable here. I can see them knocking 2 or 3 past an average Belarus side who have won only 1 of the last 9 games. France and Germany Double @ 1.7 Bet365 10/10 Units

Both Bets Won :ok

[MPLouis]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

Luxembourg snatched a point in the end. Now hoping for us to score a goal and make it 6 winning bets out of 6 :)

I think it might be 5 out of 6 - but great calls Mustafa :clap

[HastGill1]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

I watched both games. Andorra were better than San Marino, which wasn't difficult, but Andorra didn't have a decent shot on target as far as I remember. A header went close a couple of minutes in and a chance went over the top in the second half but I thought the header was the better of the chances. The point is though they very rarely take these chances, thats why they have scored in 3 of the last 16 away. San Marino are the worst side in Europe, they bring nothing at all to the table.

[MPLouis]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

I saw some of each game, and I agree that Andorra looked quite a bit better than San Marino. Congratulations on the clean sheet bets :ok

[Fedar]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

Here we are the Bulgarians :-) I advise this to be a no-bet for you fellows, but in case somebody puts a gun against your head and makes you pick something from this match, I would say the value should be with Armenians on a small handicap. This will be a very different game than the one vs. Italy. Now the expectations are much higher, and the pressure on the team rises correspondingly. I am worried, because Armenia loves to play on the counter-attack and our defenders are sometimes vulnerable when they are left too exposed from the defensive midfielders and this could be the case here, as we will need to take the initiative and look for goals. Armenia has dangerous men up-front, and particularly Mkhtaryan is currently being the best man in the Ukrainian league, scoring almost each game for Shakhtar. Bulgaria might be missing Ivanov from Partizan in defense, which is still not certain. I believe he will be ready but not so sure if he will be very fit. The team will play with good spirit after the display against Italy. Nevertheless, I know well the philosophy of coach Lubo Penev, and I am sure that he will try assure that his team does not open up too much and get vulnerable in defense. This game should be a low-scoring one, and I smell something like 1:0 for Bulgaria, or 0:0/1:1. But unless Armenians score some early goal, it should definitely be a low-scoring game.

I realize that it is kind of wrong to claim credit when you did not post a straight-forward pick, I am so glad how perfectly this game's course matched my expectations. Bulgaria is going to be a very "under"-ish team under Penev (the game with Italy being just exception).

[MPLouis]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

Few words about Bulgaria - Armenia. For me this is a No Bet game. The momentum is perhaps on Bulgaria's side, but there is no value in the odds. And I will tell you why is that in my opinion. First of all in Bulgaria not only the national, but the club teams too, have this incredible ability to win or lose any type of game. I don't know how they do it, but we can win or at least put up a great fight against good teams (like Italy) and then lose at home to a team like Cyprus (or Armenia). I don't know how they do it, but it happens. Right now in Bulgaria everybody is prizing the team and talking about the great performance against Italy, thus rising everybody's expectations and expecting a victory on Tuesday, yes but Armenia are no pushovers and I doubt this would be an easy game. They won against Malta, a difficult 1-0 victory indeed, but still 3 points are 3 points and as they showed in the Euro qualifications, they have improved a lot in recent years. I wouldn't be surprised if they settle for a point in Bulgaria, I mean I hope we can get all the points, but as I said odds ~ 1.75 are not appealing to me, because the game could easily end up 0-0 or 1-1. Defender Ivanov is doubtful and this would be a big loss in defense IMO, but apart from that Penev should have all players available at his disposal. I don't know what the other Bulgarians in the forum think, but I'll definitely stay away from this game and if we play similarly to how we did against Italy, only then I can start backing us up. Good luck!

I saw a fair bit of this game, and my impression was Bulgaria definitely deserved to win. They were the better side, and dominated the majority of the game (finished 1-0). Both teams lost their discipline towards the end of the game resulting in 3 red cards.

[MightyWell]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th Yeah, I also watched the San Marino-Montenegro game - incredibly, San Marino had a goalbound shot cleared off the line at 0-0, and they were enjoying more possession than they usually do in the early stages, but once the first goal went in Montenegro relaxed and took control and from then the outcome was never in doubt. Even still, I was surprised by the margin of victory - 6-0 at home to an average side who were apparently depleted by injury shows where they are I suppose, but what can you do when you have to pick your national side from a population of 32,000? Incidentally, they're still not bottom of the group - that spot is currently occupied by Moldova - so should be interesting when the two meet in Serravalle next month!

[MPLouis]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

I've gone with Poland mainly because think Moldova are a very poor side, and Poland at home should win by a 2 goal margin at least. Coach Fornalik is likely to go with a more attacking side partnering Lewandowski with either Saganowski or Sobiech, attacking mid Obraniak was sent off in the decent 2-2 draw away with Montenegro and is suspended. Moldova have little attacking threat but are pretty dogged usually and I wouldn't expect an easy ride for Poland, they started off well though and will be confident of getting a result against a side flying down the rankings, time of the first goal will be crucial as always with these bets. Poland -1.0,-1.5AH - 1.51 - Pinnacle - 10 Points Poland -1.5AH - 1.74 - Ladbrokes - 5 Points

Finished 2-0 I saw the second half, and from what I saw Poland thoroughly deserved to win by at least the 2 goals. Moldova occasionally threatened but by and large Poland dominated. They could have scored around 5 goals, having a lot of chances in the last 20 minutes, but had several goals disallowed and had some poor finishing.

[blackcrow]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

Iceland @ 2.87 :eyes Russia @ 2.00 :) Georgia - Spain under 2.5 @ 2.75 :) Turkey - Estonia under 2.5 @ 2.35 :eyes Can't predict send offs, and with Estonia down a man after 18 minutes, then it was always difficult for this pick to stay under Bosnia-Hercegovina - Latvia under 2.5 @ 2.37 :eyes This B-H side is going to be very hard to beat - many good attacking players who can score Hungary - Holland under 2.5 @ 2.13 :eyes Three goals in the first 20 minutes and this pick is done Belgium - Croatia over 2.5 @ 2.20 :eyes Though that after both teams had scored in the first half that they would score a third in the second half but did not happen

2-5 (-2.25)

[HastGill1]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

Finished 2-0 I saw the second half, and from what I saw Poland thoroughly deserved to win by at least the 2 goals. Moldova occasionally threatened but by and large Poland dominated. They could have scored around 5 goals, having a lot of chances in the last 20 minutes, but had several goals disallowed and had some poor finishing.

Didn't watch hardly any of it to be honest, switched over for the last 10 minutes or so when the other game had finished and Poland looked pretty much in control, Moldova should be whipping boys away from home against any half decent side.

[HastGill1]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

Yeah, I also watched the San Marino-Montenegro game - incredibly, San Marino had a goalbound shot cleared off the line at 0-0, and they were enjoying more possession than they usually do in the early stages, but once the first goal went in Montenegro relaxed and took control and from then the outcome was never in doubt. Even still, I was surprised by the margin of victory - 6-0 at home to an average side who were apparently depleted by injury shows where they are I suppose, but what can you do when you have to pick your national side from a population of 32,000? Incidentally, they're still not bottom of the group - that spot is currently occupied by Moldova - so should be interesting when the two meet in Serravalle next month!

Yeah, forgot about that chance, couldn't really tell if it was going in or not from the bet365 angle but think it probably was..as you say they enjoyed a fair bit of possession early on but once a couple of goals went in their heads dropped and the passing fell apart.

[quote]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

but what can you do when you have to pick your national side from a population of 32,000? Incidentally, they're still not bottom of the group - that spot is currently occupied by Moldova - so should be interesting when the two meet in Serravalle next month!

Many Italians play also for San Marino. Andorra, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein and even Malta I think with some reinforcements, neighbors, people who moved there to live or with some roots (ancestors, some maybe not even 1/4 blood). And San Marino is not that bad on home soil but the goals kept coming.

[JdsGooner90]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

England - Ukraine Referee for this game is Turkish Cuneyt Cakir who is known for showing decent number of cards. In the last 7 games he was in charge of he showed 4 or less cards in just 2 of the said 7 games and in 2 games he showed a red card. Furthermore, these two sides met recently during EURO 2012 and I am quite sure Ukraine will remember their disallowed goal in that game and I have a feeling that this match will be more for them than just regular qualifying game. So, in my opinion it is very likely that we will see quite enough cards in this game and the likelihood of this happening is better than the odds suggest. Over 45 Booking Points @ 2.75 (3 units) ​William Hill

Just got back from wembley, half the cards shown were never a booking, never the less good call! Ill keep an eye out on this fussy ref in future

[d@du18]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

ROMANIA - ANDORRA Romania started with an away win at Estonia and they seem to be very confident ahead Andorra, and why not, they are 2 class above them (sorry for Andorra's fans). This win is a must! The couch changed the formation, introducing 2 attackers instead of 1 used in the past game. Alongside Marica will be Marius Niculae, strong attacker with experience. Pantelimon (Man. City) Luchin (Dinamo), Chiriches (Steaua), Gaman (Astra), Rat (Shakhtar) Bourceanu, Tanase, Rusescu (all 3 Steaua), Torje (Granada) Marica (Shalke 04) , Marius Niculae (Vaslui) I know my team and I could easily say that they suck, at least in attack, no creative players, not creating space, no playmakers. The attack has to do all the job and there we don't have great talents anymore (Adrian Mutu not selected). This is will be a win, but not by large margin. I think a 3-0 will satisfy the fans. We have a strong defense, won't be a worry in this game. As I already said in other post, defenders don't go up with ball, they stick to their position. My predictions: Both teams to score - No @ 1.30 (10/10) :ok Under 4.5 @ 1.67 (8/10) :ok Draw/Romania @ 6.00 (2/10) :@

I almost had it with 3-0. They managed to score a late goal and the game finished 4-0.

[McNasara]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

You know very well that Kosova is the same as Albania ok' date= but you serbs cant accept the reality, kosovans are same people, same blood same language ok, it used to be Albania before, but history, war etc divided this part, and now Kosova is Independant, and sooner or later will be part of Albania as it ised to be before, and will be called great Albania, mark my words Mc Nasara. And yes many Kosovans know Serbian Langauge, because they were made learn serbian language in schools by the serbian regime and occupation, but that doesnt mean that those that speak serbian language are serbians, only 5% of the population in Kosova is Serbian ok dont forget.

This is definitely the funniest post I've ever seen here, I'm not going say anything more. Nori, please don't shame Irish people... :ok And your "Kosova" :lol, we're not going to go into politics ;)

Hahahahahaha thank you for making me laugh McNasara mate.GL with your bets and goooooo Albaniaaaa I placed huge amounts of money on Betfair betting on Albania +1.5 AH at odds 1.79!

Good job for you tonight.

Greece 2:0 Lithuania Greece won in Latvia even though they were losing at halftime. Lithuania drew with Slovakia at home although they'd one player more last half hour. The hosts are favorites tonight, but they can have problems when they play against weaker teams. Striker Gekas had a minor injury, but is likely to be fit. They've a very strong defensive line with Papadopoulos, Sokratis and Torosidis. The best strikers Samaras and Salpingidis are injured, Charisteas (fw) is out too like as captain Karagounis (mf). So I don't see easy way to scoring for them. The most experienced defender Stankevicius and key striker Danilevicius are injured for away side. Another strikers Labukas is suspended and Poskus is retired. I expect a defensive strategy and play to a draw from them. Otherwise, three of the four missing players are their top scorers. If there are no goals in the first half hour, I'm absolutely sure about winning my bet and odds are better than I expected. under 2,5 @1.85 Pinnacle low stake :clap

:cigar:cigar

[Mustafa]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

Great call' date=' 8 yellows and a red. :clap[/quote'] After the game I remembered that normally when there is a crazy referee I place a package bets, namely "Booking Points", "Red Card" and "Penalty to be Awarded". But anyway, can't complain much :)

[Alessan]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th A terrible day, almost cleaned it, but Scotland took all my profit away. And England shot down friends 10-fold accumulator. :( However, congratulations to all of you that were more successful, I'm glad to see that at least the Swiss played as I have thought :)

[sasik]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th No problem! :-) I got Norway right, anyway. 2-1 for them against my country. :clap

[mtom]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th Bulgaria - Armenia 1-0. I think I gave too much credit to Armenia, I don't know how they did it during the EC qualifications, but yesterday they looked very poor. I believe they had only 1 or 2 chances in front of goal, the rest was a battle in midfield and Bulgarian domination. On the other hand, Bulgaria seemed very balanced and for the first time in maybe 5 years or so I am finally encouraged that we can achieve something more.

[danhardy]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

No problem! :-) I got Norway right' date=' anyway. 2-1 for them against my country. :clap[/quote'] Yes Norway won, but they won "english" style, to get a penalty in the 90th+4 minute....ODIN the god must've been watching over them last night.

[Kiddo112]

After the game I remembered that normally when there is a crazy referee I place a package bets' date=' namely "Booking Points", "Red Card" and "Penalty to be Awarded". But anyway, can't complain much :)[/quote'] Thanks again for flagging our friend Mustafa. He really does like his cards. Interesting there were none in the first half, and from memory I think this is quite common for him. If I get time next week I think I will analyse this, as it may present another angle to bet on - maybe red card in play on betfair. Anyway, looking forward to his CL matches coming soon...........

[pg_yid]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th These were my bets, didn't post them all as some I was having second thoughts about after I bet and others had already been tipped: Romania clean sheet @ 1.28 (Ladbrokes) 10/10 WON +2.8 units Romania to be leading at half-time @ 1.32 (Betsafe) 8/10 WON +2.56 units Montenegro to win to nil @ 1.4 (William Hill) 8/10 WON +3.2 units San Marino-Montenegro under 3.5 @ 1.97 (Nordic Bet) LOST 6/10 -6 units Cyprus vs Iceland over 2.5 @ 2.38 (Coral) 3/10 LOST -3 units Bosnia @ 1.25 (Coral) 10/10 WON +2.5 units England @ 1.6 (Bet365) 1/10 LOST -1 units All in all a small profit, I feel it should have been more considering the amount of value there was around. I am not happy with the bet for the Cyprus game or the silly bet on England. From what I saw Cyprus and Iceland played attacking football but lacked the quality to finish their chances off; I think this could be a problem with betting on overs between two of the lesser nations, and possibly explained the high prices. The other bets I am happy about, really didn't expect Montenegro to score so many goals. I think a lot of the time San Marino won't capitulate quite as badly as that at home against such opponents, if you look at their past record, although someone on this thread said Montenegro would score a lot of goals so well done to them.

[Kiddo112]

Hey pg, I see you backed Romania to be leading at HT. Have you seen the Ladbrokes markets, winning after X minutes?? Romania were 1.62 to be leading after 30 mins. I think this market may offer up some value in these one sided matches. The time of the first goal in that match was set at +\- 13mins @ Blue Square, and Bet365 had time of first home goal @19:00 I think. They were 1.83, so I think 1.62 offered decent value. Italy were 1.73 in same Market May be worth a look in the future

[danhardy]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

Hey pg, I see you backed Romania to be leading at HT. Have you seen the Ladbrokes markets, winning after X minutes?? Romania were 1.62 to be leading after 30 mins. I think this market may offer up some value in these one sided matches. The time of the first goal in that match was set at +\- 13mins @ Blue Square, and Bet365 had time of first home goal @19:00 I think. They were 1.83, so I think 1.62 offered decent value. Italy were 1.73 in same Market May be worth a look in the future

Hey Kiddo, for others Romania leading after 30 min might looked good with them odds, but do believe me 1.62 after 30 min was more than fair, 1st goal was scored in the 29th min after a long "ferguson" squeaky bum stretch.

[Kiddo112]

Hey Kiddo' date=' for others Romania leading after 30 min might looked good with them odds, but do believe me 1.62 after 30 min was more than fair, 1st goal was scored in the 29th min after a long "ferguson" squeaky bum stretch.[/quote'] Hi Dan, yeah was indeed squeaky bum time. But I mean more in general terms than this game specifically. 1.62 to be leading at 30mins v 1.32 at 45 mins - is it value?? If not, then 1.83 on the first goal after 13 mins with Blue Square is where the value is then, isn't it??

[pg_yid]

Re: World Cup Qualfiers - Europe > Sept 11th

Hey pg, I see you backed Romania to be leading at HT. Have you seen the Ladbrokes markets, winning after X minutes?? Romania were 1.62 to be leading after 30 mins. I think this market may offer up some value in these one sided matches. The time of the first goal in that match was set at +\- 13mins @ Blue Square, and Bet365 had time of first home goal @19:00 I think. They were 1.83, so I think 1.62 offered decent value. Italy were 1.73 in same Market May be worth a look in the future

Yes I think it's definitely something to look into, although these teams can sometimes hold out quite well for a while and then collapse in a big way. I wasn't that confident about the bet tbh....I took it purely because the odds were out of line, Betsafe had it as 1.32 and the other bookies were around 1.1-1.15 so I took the view that the market was likely to be right. I'm not bothered about getting banned from Betsafe so was happy to take the bet, then one of the posts on here made me have second thoughts about it (hence not tipping it up) but in the end I let it ride.