BBOTD Saturday 25th August

[Bathtime For Rupert]

2.30 York - 1pt win Mysterious Man @ 20/1 (Bet365) Posted this before his intended run at Sandown recently:

2.30 Sandown - 3pts win Mysterious Man @ 15/2 (Hills) Very competitive race to get stuck into but I really like the chances of Andrew Balding's runner who got off the mark last time out and should relish the step up to 1m6f. There is some stamina in his pedigree and the way he's been finishing his races in maidens suggest he can improve further for this distance. Plenty of his maiden form is rock solid - 4th to Thomas Chippendale and then 2nd to Estimate (both Royal Ascot winners). He holds New Youmzain on that most recent form and then the step back to 10f wouldn't have been ideal next time out. Was no match for the winner but the race worked out nicely and he kept on well to finish 2nd in the end. The 3rd is an 85 horse, the 4th 88 and the 5th 80 so on that evidence my selection's mark of 83 doesn't look beyond him and he's got off the mark since then. There were a few solid yardsticks in the field when staying on strongly under pressure to forge to a 2 1/4l success at Bath last time out and I just think he's going to enjoy the extra 2f on offer today. His form is rock solid and it's hard to see him not running another big race.

Didn't run in the end but the comments apply again for his run here with the 1m6f trip looking like it'll improve him again having been seeing his races out well over shorter. Although Timeform believe his mark is high, I'm personally not so sure with his form working out nicely and factoring in the anticipated improvement for the distance. As mentioned, winners have come out of his races and that includes his win at Bath last time. The 3rd horse was Mawaqeet (beaten 3 1/4l) who subsequently won a maiden and then was a slightly unfortunate 2nd at Glorious Goodwood off a mark of 87. Like I say, I don't believe 83 is too harsh on Andrew Balding's colt and Estimate backed up her win at Ascot with a subsequent 3rd at Goodwood to get a rating of 110. My selection's 2 3/4l defeat giving 5lbs doesn't look bad now and is another piece of rock solid form. He handles give in the ground so rain won't inconvenience and his draw in stall 7 isn't bad. The yard are working at a 17% strike rate this month from a lot of runners so that's no issue either and I just think he's been overlooked in here.

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August 2.30 - York - Monshak @ 11/1 >Bet365 With more rain forecast tonight and the ground already looking abit softer today than a few people imagined i'm going to stick to horses proven on this ground. Sir Micheal Stoute's runner Monshak has had 3 starts to date, all of which have been on soft/heavy ground. She ran subsequent Irish Oaks winner Great Heavens to 3L on debut at Yarmouth over 11f. She then went on to win his next 2 starts when upped in trip to 12 and 14f respectively, winning as if she had slightly more in hand on both occasions. Runs off 87, 6lb higher than that latest win which looks fair, especially as she is slightly less exposed than most in this. Has underrated jockey onboard in Graham Lee and no reason why she won't go close in my opinion particularly if the ground gets even softer. First time visor applied also.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August 19.45 Windsor: Mons Calpe @ 10/1 Bet365 Mons Calpe still without one single good performance this year. He was well beaten in all four starts so far. He slipped down to a very tempting mark in consequence though as he won off an 8lb higher mark here at Windsor in similar conditions last year. He's actually down to a career lowest mark and all his four wins came of higher marks obviously. The fast ground will be in his favour as three of his four turf wins came on ground described as good to firm. Neill Callan is booked for the ride who has a good strike rate in the last two years for trainer P F I Cole, which can be only a bonus for Monse Calpe's chance. This race here is particularly poor, main danger is obviously Highland Duke who is only 4lb up for a convincing win lto and could be hard to beat if the step up in trip brings out further improvement. If not though then Mons Calpe should be very much up there to win this.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August 3:40 York: Hammerfest 1pt win 10/1 Bet Victor Hammerfest ran well at Royal Ascot and lines up here off just a three pound higher mark. The extra distance today should be in his favour as should a little ease in the ground. John Hammond rarely brings a horse over these days, so presumably he feels Hammerfest has a good chance here.

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August York 3.05 - Saddlers Rock 1pts Win 11/8 William Hill Impressive winner at Goodwood lto and Im backing him to follow up here at York. Has run three huge races this season beaten very narrowly by both Midnight Soprano and then the smart Colour Vision before reversing places with that one lto and I thought the way he won that day bodes well for today. I can't see why any of the horses he beat at Goodwood should reverse form here. I also think this track will be to his liking given York's long straight, the one to beat for me.

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August YORK 5.20 LAST BID @ 20/1 bet365 BOG .5ew Course record over 5f reads 1122 and was 2nd here in May off a mark of 92, runs off a mark of 90 today and claimer takes another 5lb off. Running against his own age group again today which sould help and back to 5f on more suitable fast ground. 20/1 is a massive price.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August *Scarlet Rocks - Redcar 8:00* Dropped 5 pounds since it's last handicap run two starts back from 60 to 55, and was running off 85 in 2010, so is now 30 pounds lower than then. Encouragement last time out i felt when 4th at Southwell and the extra furlong should suit as it often can get slowly away. Shane B Kelly takes off 5 pounds, so runs off an extremely leniant mark. Ron Barr's only runner today and looks overpriced here. *0.5 Points e/w @ 20/1 Skybet*

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August 1635 newmarket 1pt win prince of orange 7/2 pp winner last time out,and the 4th won next time out to frank the form,and if there is any further improvement then it should go in again,trainer has a 22% strike rate at the track and the jockey/trainer combo the strike rate is 18% whilst the jockey has a 14% s.r at the course

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August Y2.45 Justonefortheroad 0.5pt E/W 40/1 Stan James This one's a helluva price considering that it's won 2 from 2 when racing over 7 furlongs on ground with give underfoot (as will be the case today) and has won off a 5lb higher mark (this year) and that was without the excellent 7lb claimer that's on board today ! The jockey has a superb strike rate and I think Fahey uses this jockey well - she's won 4 of her last 8 for this trainer including a 33/1 shot yesterday. Drawn in stall 1 as well so if there is a strong bias towards the low drawn horses, this horse could be in with a shout at a great e/w price.

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August 4.50 York TOP NOTCH TONTO EW @ 20/1 bog (Paddy Power and many more) (place terms 1-3 1/4) My bet of the day and I even got a slightly better price (22/1 was still available a couple of minutes ago). Top Notch Tonto is the top weight of this interesting nursery. The 2yo gelding trained by Ian McInnes showed plenty of skills since his first race finishing 4th of 11 in a maiden over 5f (good to soft) at Beverley (7 May) 2.5L behind the winner Indian Jade who won again on his next start and went on to finish 8th of 22 in the Coventry at Royal Ascot and was 6th of 19 in the big sale race here 2 days ago (race won by his stablemate Hototo) and is rated 92. Top Notch Tonto shaped very well with a strong finish after he was kept towards the back of the group and was never nearer at the finish just 1/2L behind the third Faithfilly who was getting a 5lb allowance being a filly and the Ed Walker trained filly won her next start at that trip (5f) and has finished 2nd and 1st in her last two starts at Listed level in France getting a rating of 100 at the moment. Not a bad start at all for a colt that costed 3,000€ and represents a small stable not famous for first-time-out 2yo winners and that's why he was at 100/1 that day. Top Notch Tonto confirmed that early promises winning in good style his second start (again a 5f maiden at Beverley 8 days after his debut). He did in style having been ridden to lead just inside the final furlong and keeping on very well in the last 1/2f. He reversed the form with Fly Fisher who had finished second on his debut and was just 4th 3L behind him this time and among the 12 horses he beat that day there were a couple of interesting prospects such as Fraserburgh a 2yo colt trained by Mark Johnston for Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Matkoum who finished second beaten only a neck my 106-rated and subsequent Listed winner Morawij on his next start. Back to my selection McInnes kept him busy again over the same C&D (Beverley 5f) in a rich conditions stakes won in impressive style by Bungle Inthejungle, Group 3 winner at Goodwood 3 weeks ago and 5th in the Phoenix (Group 1) at the Curragh on his last start (RPR 108). Top Notch Tonto didn't like that very fast 5f (firm ground) and was badly outpaced in the first part of the race but shaped well in the final furlong and finished 3rd far from the winner but ahead of Ask The Guru a Ralph Beckett-trained colt who has finished second on his next/last three starts and is now rated 95. Reading the result of that small race (5 runners) on paper doesn't really give any idea about the performance of my selection because he was able to perform a really eye-catching effort after he had lost miles at the start and was totally outpaced on such a fast ground in the first couple of furlongs. McInnes surely realized how good was that performance and sent him to Royal Ascot for the Windsor Castle (Listed over 5f won by Hototo). Top Notch Tonto finished just 12th of 23 but once again that wasn't a bad performance because it was a very tough ask for him over 5f at Listed level in such a big field and he lost again a lot of gorund at the start and was soon pushed along but recovered well and finished just 1/2L behind Cosmic Chatter, who is the current favourite of the previous race here at York (a Listed over 5f) and is already rated 100 after his last impressive win. So this nice gelding performed with plenty of promises in all his first 4 career starts over 5f and last time out was finally upped in distance over 6f contesting a conditions stakes of high quality at Pontefract (2nd of July). Top Notch Tonto was the extreme outsider of the race but ran very well once again. As usual he had a bad start and was soon pushed along but made a very good headway over 2f out and stayed on strongly inside the final furlong to finish 3rd but just a short head behind the second Royal Rascal who was 3/4L behind the winner Euxton Hall. The filly Royal Rascal was getting 5lb by my selection that day and she has bolted up on her next start when making her handicap debut over 6f here at York off 78, ran very well in a big field handicap at Newmarket when 5th of 19 off 87 and has finished 3rd in the Lowther here at York two days ago (Group 2 where she finished just 2L behind the winner Rosdhu Queen). The Richard Fahey-trained Euxton Hall didn't win since but finished 4th, 5th and 6th in Listed and Group 2 races on his next/last three starts (latest when just 2.5L behind the winner Blaine in yesterday's Gimcrack here at York). So my selection ran a cracker to finish just behind two top-class horses of this generation. Top Notch Tonto is still very well handicapped on his current mark of 89 given the recent boosts received by the races he has been contested in this season and he has been crying out for this step up in trip (first time over 7f today). He is the top weight of the race but Dale Swift, who is a good and experienced claimer (84 wins in the last 3 seasons and 3 already for Ian McInnes), gets 3lb off his back which will surely help. There are a couple of interesting contenders here but the main dangers are representing top yards and their prices are way too short imho while we get a very juicy 20/1 for a horse which showed already plenty of speed and is open to plenty of improvements now stepped up to this trip and making his nursery debut. It could be one of the biggest wins of his career for trainer Ian McInnes who trains in Eastern Yorkshire so not far from York. If this horse would have been trained by a big name it would be priced in single digit, I have no doubt about that. Strong confidence.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August 2.00 York: >Betfred City Of York Stakes (Listed) (7f) Plenty of doubts about the main contenders here and I’m going against the top three in the market in favour of last years winner Doncaster Rover. He hasn’t been running too badly and get off the mark for his new trainer at the first time of asking. As an alternative I’m keen on Bannock at the prices now he has been dropped back in trip, his early speed should get him into pole position and will be hard to peg back on this course. Selections: 1pt Doncaster Rover 11/2 >Bet365

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August 3:15 Curragh - Hartani - Back Has won his last 3 and looks set for pretty big things. This is a relatively tough race but he definitely looks up to the task based on what we've seen so far. Win really well in his last race and fancy him to go in again here 1pt win @ Sp

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August 3:15 Curragh - Hartani - Back Has won his last 3 and looks set for pretty big things. This is a relatively tough race but he definitely looks up to the task based on what we've seen so far. Win really well in his last race and fancy him to go in again here 1pt win @ Sp

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August 2.50 Newmarket Caravan rolls on - back from break but open to improvement around trip. Mark looks workable and there could be more to come on fast ground. Progressed nicely last season. 0.5 pt ew

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August 3.40 York Icon Dream 1pt win @ 18/1 Bet365 I'll take a chance on this horse who ran well on his sole start this season and his first start for his new trainer Jim Goldie in the Northumberland Plate. He ran a cracker to finish a close 3rd that day and could get involved here with the stable in good form having had 2 winners last night at Newcastle. This horse has ran once over CD last year when finishing a staying on 6th in the John Smiths Silver Cup. He is a classy stayer and could get involved here with Graham Lee doing the steering.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August TIMES UP 3.05 York. 1 point win. William Buick riding well and the trip, ground & track isn't of any concerns. Needs to find a few pound with the favourite, but a decent horse who would be capable of exploiting any chinks in the favourite's armoury. Should run a big race today. 14/1 Bet365 BOG

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August Windsor 6.15 - Goldoni - win at 9/2 bog wm hill Taking a bit of a punt on the weather here...............if the rains come before race time Goldoni will look a decent bet at these odds he won the epsom derby trial earlier this year on heavy ground and finished a close up 2nd last time out in a Listed race on 'soft' The other two main contenders would appear less well suited by any deterioration of the ground My horse doesn't mind leading and could well make this a test of stamina from the front

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August Tito Bustillo 3.10 Cartmel. 1 point win. Was better than the favourite over hurdles, and despite not looking a natural over fences last time, he can improve for that experience. The favourite hasn't jumped a fence in public, so worth taking him on, and the only other runner needs to find too much on the book. A small field can also suit us. 2/1 Bet365 (bog)

[nickf88]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August 7:00 Redcar - Aquarian Spirit 1pt Win 12/1 Paddy Power. Quite a trappy race in all honesty but could be worth taking a chance at small stakes on Faheys runner in this who is still well treated on past performances and has had some decent runs at Redcar. Could well bomb out today but ran over same course and distance last time out and finished 5 and half lengths off the winner. Dropped 3 pounds in handicap for that run and given two weeks off since so hopefully be spot on for this today. Worth a go at the odds for me.

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August 5.20 York: Last Bid, 20/1 Bet365, 0.5pt e/w (123, 1/4 odds) Last Bid has run four times over c&d, winning twice and finishing second twice. He has only beaten three horses home in his last two starts but both were over 6f. He has been dropped two pounds after his last run and jockey Daryl Byrne takes off another five. Back over 5f today and at a course he likes he has a chance at a good price.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August

19.45 Windsor: Mons Calpe @ 10/1 Bet365 Mons Calpe still without one single good performance this year. He was well beaten in all four starts so far. He slipped down to a very tempting mark in consequence though as he won off an 8lb higher mark here at Windsor in similar conditions last year. He's actually down to a career lowest mark and all his four wins came of higher marks obviously. The fast ground will be in his favour as three of his four turf wins came on ground described as good to firm. Neill Callan is booked for the ride who has a good strike rate in the last two years for trainer P F I Cole, which can be only a bonus for Monse Calpe's chance. This race here is particularly poor, main danger is obviously Highland Duke who is only 4lb up for a convincing win lto and could be hard to beat if the step up in trip brings out further improvement. If not though then Mons Calpe should be very much up there to win this.

Non-runner... 19.15 Windsor: Attenborough @ 5/1 Paddy Power Lightly raced 3yo gelding who caught my eye recently when finishing 3rd at Nottingham. He was a long way beaten as Gala Casino Star really romped home that day but Attenborough missed the break completely and had use valuable energy to cut back the lost ground. He travelled then beatifully through the race, was one of the last on the bridle 3f out but didn't have enough to give to challenge the eventual winner, yet he ran on well I thought. He's down one pound in the mark now and steps down in trip back to 1m what shouldn't be an issue I suppose. This here today will be only his fifth start and there might be still some improvement left and his current mark not really reflecting his ability. Buick booked for the ride is a little bonus as well.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August Late Runners

*Scarlet Rocks - Redcar 8:00* Dropped 5 pounds since it's last handicap run two starts back from 60 to 55, and was running off 85 in 2010, so is now 30 pounds lower than then. Encouragement last time out i felt when 4th at Southwell and the extra furlong should suit as it often can get slowly away. Shane B Kelly takes off 5 pounds, so runs off an extremely leniant mark. Ron Barr's only runner today and looks overpriced here. *0.5 Points e/w @ 20/1 Skybet*

Windsor 6.15 - Goldoni - win at 9/2 bog wm hill Taking a bit of a punt on the weather here...............if the rains come before race time Goldoni will look a decent bet at these odds he won the epsom derby trial earlier this year on heavy ground and finished a close up 2nd last time out in a Listed race on 'soft' The other two main contenders would appear less well suited by any deterioration of the ground My horse doesn't mind leading and could well make this a test of stamina from the front

7:00 Redcar - Aquarian Spirit 1pt Win 12/1 Paddy Power. Quite a trappy race in all honesty but could be worth taking a chance at small stakes on Faheys runner in this who is still well treated on past performances and has had some decent runs at Redcar. Could well bomb out today but ran over same course and distance last time out and finished 5 and half lengths off the winner. Dropped 3 pounds in handicap for that run and given two weeks off since so hopefully be spot on for this today. Worth a go at the odds for me.

Non-runner... 19.15 Windsor: Attenborough @ 5/1 Paddy Power Lightly raced 3yo gelding who caught my eye recently when finishing 3rd at Nottingham. He was a long way beaten as Gala Casino Star really romped home that day but Attenborough missed the break completely and had use valuable energy to cut back the lost ground. He travelled then beatifully through the race, was one of the last on the bridle 3f out but didn't have enough to give to challenge the eventual winner, yet he ran on well I thought. He's down one pound in the mark now and steps down in trip back to 1m what shouldn't be an issue I suppose. This here today will be only his fifth start and there might be still some improvement left and his current mark not really reflecting his ability. Buick booked for the ride is a little bonus as well.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 25th August

Non-runner... 19.15 Windsor: Attenborough @ 5/1 Paddy Power Lightly raced 3yo gelding who caught my eye recently when finishing 3rd at Nottingham. He was a long way beaten as Gala Casino Star really romped home that day but Attenborough missed the break completely and had use valuable energy to cut back the lost ground. He travelled then beatifully through the race, was one of the last on the bridle 3f out but didn't have enough to give to challenge the eventual winner, yet he ran on well I thought. He's down one pound in the mark now and steps down in trip back to 1m what shouldn't be an issue I suppose. This here today will be only his fifth start and there might be still some improvement left and his current mark not really reflecting his ability. Buick booked for the ride is a little bonus as well.

The next non-runner. :zzz 19.45 Windsor: Presto Volante @ 5/2 bet365 The rain is taking its toll and after a couple of non-runners in this race I'll take the chance with Presto Volante who made a fine return to the track after a two years absence at Salisbury recently. He is still a maiden but also very lightly raced and despite some rustiness in the last race he did pretty well to finish 3rd. He was pretty early under pressure, probably also due to the strong pace but picked up really well and looked very dangerous 2f out till he got badly hampered by the eventual winner. It was a wonder that he finished the race so well I thought. He steps up in trip today as he tackles 12f for the first time but the way he stayed on the last time suggest he could be able to stay that far. He won't mind the soft going anyway and after the withdraws of Mons Calpe, my initial choice in this race, and hot favourite Highland Duke, I feel the way is free for Presto Volante to break his maiden tag.