BBOTD Thursday 16th of August

[Aidymac]

:ok

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August *Beaufort Twelve - Newmarket 5:25* Ran poor last time out, but if able to reproduce it's run from two starts back, it would have a big chance here. It was 2nd to Stature who has come out and won since. The 3rd in that race, Jungle Beat, came really close since also. It runs it's best on good to firm ground, which it should have tomorrow. It has a record of 1-2 from two runs on this ground. Harry Bentley has won on the horse before and takes off a few pounds. Jarvis's last runner was a winner, so stable coming into form. This is his only runner of the day. His record on this course is 13 winners from 134 runners, profit of +£9.27 to level stakes, and when Bentley rides for him, it is a profit of +£31.50 to level stakes. *1 Point WIN @ 8/1 Ladbrokes BOG*

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August Nmk 240 - Voodoo Prince 14/1 EW bet365 bog This horse ran a couple of really good races last year and caught my eye as one to potentially follow. He was late out this year and ran on ground he wouldnt have liked, over a trip too short and he was given a delicate ride. Tomorrow sees him back into the conditions he will enjoy and with the trainer slowly starting to find his feet, I think there is a good chance of a least making the frame. Of the rest, the 2 market leaders look to have suspicious form and look to be rated higher than what they have achieved whilst the potential danger could be Odin who hasnt done badly in his recent runs.

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August 16.20 Newmarket: I'm So Glad, 11/2 Paddy Power, 1pt win I'm So Glad won a fillie's handicap over c&d lto on similar ground to what she gets today. She has only been put up two pounds for that win and should still have a bit in hand over the handicapper. Third place that day won well nto. Mick Channon is having a good year on the July Course at Newmarket with 5 winners from 28 runners showing a £40 profit from £1 level stakes. Charles Bishop is in the saddle, as he was lto, and he takes off a valuable five pounds.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August 3.25 Salisbury - 1pt win Shesha Bear @ 13/2 (PP) Posted this before her run here in June:

5.05 Salisbury - 1pt win Shesha Bear @ 10/1 (SJ) I think Jonathan Portman's runner is a bit overpriced here having racked up a hat-trick at Epsom last year and has had excuses on her two efforts so far this campaign. She struggled on very soft ground back at Epsom on his seasonal return, but many horses were well beaten on that surface first time out, yet ran much better since. She was stepped up to 2 miles at Goodwood last time and travelled well for much of the contest before fading inside the final 2f. She simply shaped as a non-stayer and the return to her optimum 1m4f here will help her see the race out. She handles soft ground well and her mark is slipping back down now (5lbs lower than 2 starts ago). That's generous considering she hasn't had her ideal circumstances this season yet, and although this being at Epsom would have increased her chances, she has won elsewhere, and I'm hoping the track won't undo her here. Korngold is too short having only run average races since his last win and remains 6lbs higher than that success, I'm not totally sure Persian Herald will get home well enough on the ground, Achalas hasn't shown enough this season to me to be a solid option. King's Troop is the one I reckon could run well if improving on its first run of the season but although he has a swing with my selection on Epsom form from September, Shesha Bear was comfortably in command that day.

She ran a cracker to go down by a length in second on this occasion and she competes here again off the same mark having not had things go for her since. She could never get involved at Epsom next time out but this was on a day where you had to be handy to get in the picture and the front three simply dominated affairs. I can't forgive her that effort and she ran much better at the same venue last time out. She was given far too much to do by an inexperienced rider, however, and she ought to have gone closer. With James Doyle taking the ride today I think that's a very positive jockey change and the track/trip and soft ground suit. It's going to be difficult giving weight to 3yos at this time of the year but enough of them have some questions to answer whereas I'm pretty sure Jonathan Portman's mare will run her race and I'm hoping it will be enough for a yard going nicely.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August 15.15 Newmarket: Common Touch @ 9/1 William Hill Very progressive in his 3yo campaign last year, having been successful in two good handicaps plus two placed efforts in five starts. He couldn't build on that this year so far but I think it's easy to make excuses for him as he had to race of high handicap marks in some hot races. He's now down in class and also 3lb below his last winning mark, cheeckpieces are applied for the first time and may help him to regain some of his old form. This race looks not too competitive with only favourite Zacynthus making some appeal to me. The sound surface should be in favour of Common Touch as well and with Hannagan booked for the ride again I feel he is overpriced.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August 1555 salisbury 1pt win trade commissioner 2/1 boyle tough race,but the improvement from the selection in its last 2 races,makes this my bet of the day, got the ground and distance to suit,taken out of a race last month due to ground,so connections seem to have confidence in the going,buick on board for gosden,and im sure they fancy the chances rather than going to newmarket for another ride

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August B3.05 Bollin Billy 0.5pt E/W 50/1 Stan James It goes without saying that you don't get too many things in your favour when backing 50/1 shots and on racecourse form, this would be priced about right. It's barely beaten a horse in its 4 races but gets in to this nursery off just 7-12 with the jockey taking off a further 3lb. The jockey has actually been in unbelievable form, winning an incredible 5 of his last 11 races including a few at tasty prices. I think the criteria which would suggest the horse might not be a complete no-hoper is that it is actually pretty well bred and it's breeding suggests a liking for fast ground. Another interesting stat is that the horses sire (Lucky Story) has a superb strike rate at the track (10 wins from 36 runs).

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August 7.55 Leopardstown KING OF DUDES win @ 5/2 bog (Paddy Power and many more) Very well bred 3yo colt purchased for 120,000gns in November 2009 at Tattersalls and first trained by Sir Henry Cecil. Won in nice style on soft ground three starts back and didn't run bad in defeat on his last two starts especially last time out when finding just one too good: a very well handicapped and improving horse in Sadler's Rock. Thomas Carmody-trained horses have been running very well of late: 2 winners and a close third from just 4 runners during the last week. Young apprentice jockey Luke Dempsey rode him last time out and claims a very valuable 7lb. The colt gets here a very important 8lb allowance being a 3yo and is one of the few runners that will appreciate the softish ground (both best efforts so far came on soft).

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August 4:10 Beverley - Moon Trip - Back Has a very big chance here. Only 3 go to post but he is the only recent winner in this field and has also run well on each of his last 2 starts. Johnston runners tend to do well in small fields and I fancy him to go in here 1pt win @ 10/11 Hills BOG

[YouWinSomeYouLoseSome]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August 6.25 Leopardstown - Fairy Wing - 1pt Win - 6/1 @ Coral --------- Course and Distance winner around here at Leopardstown , The going will be right for , So will the Class he is in the correct grade. A very progressive fiilly who produces her best at Leopardstown , Fran Berry gets the leg up and has won on her last time out so The partnership shouldn't be a problem , Looking for another bold show here today.

[mattmcandrew]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August Sunny Side Up steps up into class 4 company for the first time today to take on her elders and she has to be in with a big shout. She is up 6lbs for her win last time out at Pontefract against a weaker field which included the likes of Steelcut, Wicked Wilma and Commanche Raider (all perennial class four performers). She stayed on really well that day on her first try over 5f, so she is unexposed at this trip. She was painfully unlucky in her race prior to that when she only ran into an in form Meandmyshadow. Richard Fahey keeps faith with Laura Barry and she takes off the valuable 7lbs. Her handicap mark lies at 72, minus Barry's 7lbs makes 65 and she is a million miles better than that rating. Based on those statistics alone, she is well worth chancing at 4/1. Sunny Side Up at 4/1 with Bet365, Newmarket's 4:55.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August 530 Fontwell: Princely Hero EW (11/1 Boyles) Some nice jump racing back after a break and Princely Hero looks well weighted in the handicap chase off a mark of 100. Has won off 104 and loves his local track Fontwell. Has been running ok lately and last time was too far for him and this trip will be more to his liking. Its a decent sized field but plenty of exposed sorts and although the selection does need a bit of persuading at the start if he can get into ahandy position early i would expect him to be in there at the finish in this company.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August 3.15 Newmarket Triple Charm 1pt win @ 8/1 Bet365 Triple Charm looks very interesting today running in the first time visor. The last time he wore first time headgear he won very easily on the all weather off a mark of 77. Jeremey Noseda is in good form at the moment operating at a 25% strike rate and he has a 22% strike rate at Newmarket. Interestingly he has an over 50% strike rate at the track when teaming up with Frankie Dettori. Triple Charm is still unexposed on turf having only had 4 previous runs but I fancy there could be plenty of improvement in him. He does have to put a disappointing run at Goodwood behind him but I feel Goodwood is one of them tracks where you can write off a performance and ignore it. I fancy him to bounce back to form here.

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August 3.55 Salisbury - Tullius 1pts win 5/2 William Hill Has had a really good season so far winning 3 from 4 races and placing in the other where he was only beaten a length in a Group 2 race and this race looks easier. The ground today will also be no issue and for me looks to be the one to beat.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August

15.15 Newmarket: Common Touch @ 9/1 William Hill Very progressive in his 3yo campaign last year, having been successful in two good handicaps plus two placed efforts in five starts. He couldn't build on that this year so far but I think it's easy to make excuses for him as he had to race of high handicap marks in some hot races. He's now down in class and also 3lb below his last winning mark, cheeckpieces are applied for the first time and may help him to regain some of his old form. This race looks not too competitive with only favourite Zacynthus making some appeal to me. The sound surface should be in favour of Common Touch as well and with Hannagan booked for the ride again I feel he is overpriced.

Won well enough, backed down to 5/1 SP! Important winner for me as I'm going through a really bleak phase with the the feeling I could do whatever I want but certainly not pick a winner...

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August

15.15 Newmarket: Common Touch @ 9/1 William Hill Very progressive in his 3yo campaign last year, having been successful in two good handicaps plus two placed efforts in five starts. He couldn't build on that this year so far but I think it's easy to make excuses for him as he had to race of high handicap marks in some hot races. He's now down in class and also 3lb below his last winning mark, cheeckpieces are applied for the first time and may help him to regain some of his old form. This race looks not too competitive with only favourite Zacynthus making some appeal to me. The sound surface should be in favour of Common Touch as well and with Hannagan booked for the ride again I feel he is overpriced.

Nice winner Roberto!

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August Bamurru 5.20 Chepstow. 1 point win. Did well enough on debut, but then disappointed bigtime. Has since been gelded, which can work wonders, and also gets the addition of blinkers for this race. I feel he'll show improvement from his debut run this evening and therefore have every chance of a win. Unexposed race and so there's always the chance of something improving beyond expectations, but at the prices we would be well worth a bet in my opinion. 14/1 Stan James.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August WAIT NO MORE 5.30 Fontwell. 1 point win. This trip much more suitable than last time and this track suits his style of running. Needs to show he can win off this mark, but if on song, then he should go to the front, jump well enough, and be hard to peg back. Ground's fine and so no excuses for not running to ability. 10/1 William Hill BOG

[gman1]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August 755 leopardstown unhinged 13/2 coral eachway won this last year under same jockey. has only won a jumps fixture since then but is 6lb lower than his winning mark here last year as a result. has seen money, has been tipped in well to the fore places also.

[jockmc]

Re: BBOTD Thursday 16th of August

16.20 Newmarket: I'm So Glad' date= 11/2 Paddy Power, 1pt win I'm So Glad won a fillie's handicap over c&d lto on similar ground to what she gets today. She has only been put up two pounds for that win and should still have a bit in hand over the handicapper. Third place that day won well nto. Mick Channon is having a good year on the July Course at Newmarket with 5 winners from 28 runners showing a £40 profit from £1 level stakes. Charles Bishop is in the saddle, as he was lto, and he takes off a valuable five pounds.

CHEERS NICE 1 HAD A TENNER ON IT