bbotd tues 31st

[gman1]

rock critic 6/1 laddies 535 galway dermot weld smashed in 3 winners yesterday and should have similar success on day 2 of his annual benefit week. this one has one at the last two festivals and looks readymade for a third win at ballybrit despite being 9 pound higher than his last success. main opposition will be custom cut but he has accumulated 30 pound in penalties since his winning run began.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: bbotd tues 31st Goodwood 200 - License To Till 25/1 EW BetVictor This looks to be a very competitive handicap and I quite fancy the chances of a couple of these but ones that intrigues me at a price is License To Till. He ran poorly 2 weeks ago after not getting a good break and being held up, but normally he is a solid horse who likes to make or sit just off the pace which can be an asset here at Goodwood. The draw isnt a good one, but if he breaks well this time and can make his way across to the inside rail then he has a good chance of still being up there at the finish. Mark Johnson's horses are now starting to fly, and while I would prefer to see the ground keep drying out, the selection can also handle some cut.

[corky]

Re: bbotd tues 31st 1510 goodwood 1pt win edinburgh knight 7/1 betvic ran a cracker finishing 2nd 10 days ago at ascot,has run poorly at goodwood before,but has been running well, 2nd last 2 efforts surely its time has come to get head in front, william buick takes the ride for the darcy stable

[Aidymac]

Re: bbotd tues 31st *Fitz Flyer - Goodwood 5:25* Ran really well at Ascot last time out on it's first run for Dandy Nicholls behind Barnet Fair only 2 days ago. Was 6th of 18 that day, and really travelled well in the race and wasn't given an awful hard time. Runs in a 26 runner field here, but drops in class from Class 2 to Class2 3, and Adrian Nicholls has opted to ride this one ahead of the others which may be significant. Even though it was 6th, it was only about 1 length behind Barnet Fair, and 16/1 is madness in my opinion. It runs off the same mark of 90 and must have a place chance at least. *0.5 Points e/w @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG*

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: bbotd tues 31st 2.00 Goodwood - 1pt win Spanish Duke @ 20/1 (Bet365) The John Dunlop team will be praying for a winner and this would be just the tonic to get the yard off the cold list. His runners are running okay on the whole so there is some encouragement ahead of Glorious Goodwood and I think this horse has a fine chance at a big price in the opener of the festival. Spanish Duke is a free-going sort who relishes the downhill nature of Epsom and it's clear sharper tracks are in his favour and the easier finish here will prove much more ideal than at Ascot, last time out, for example. It's also a positive in my eyes that he's dropped back down in trip to the 9 1/2f on offer here today as he does hamper his chances by pulling fiercely. That can still happen over this trip but it should have less impact at the finish than when he did just that at the royal meeting last time out. The softer conditions there would have been against him too but he travelled well (as usual) but just didn't see it out over 1m4f with the stiffer finish there with some cut. Prior to that effort he was an unfortunate 3rd at his beloved Epsom. He pulled again, and the trip was 1m4f also, but it's less taxing there on better ground and but for lacking a clear run early in the straight, he may well have won. He powered home when in the clear and that shows to me that he's in good heart when he has his conditions. It's a good move dropping him back to what might be his best trip and the better ground does help. He's now only 1lb higher than his last win (a very comfortable success at Epsom) so he's poised to strike and his wide draw should be nullified somewhat by his usual tactics of being dropped in. You need plenty of luck at Goodwood so that's a concern, as is his record at the track. He's been well-held on both occasions he's run here but the way he handles Epsom suggests there were probably other factors that led to him disappointing. For example last year he wasn't in brilliant form going into the race, suffered from little room up the straight and was high in the handicap. He comes into the race better this year and this will suit much more than the Ascot race he competed in last time. I think he'll be travelling as well as anything and I just hope he gets the split and can quicken better than when he was last here.

[Edberg]

Re: bbotd tues 31st 5.35 Galway SPA'S DANCER win @ 11/1 bog (Bet365) Progressive 5yo gelding by Danehill Dancer trained by promising trainer Ed de Giles since this year and during this spring-summer campaign Spa's Dancer has been showing his best progressing race after race and collecting 1 win, 3 seconds, 1 third and 1 fourth in 6 starts with his RPRs showing very well his progression: 68-83-94-95-100-101. The first of those 6 races came on soft/heavy but last time out at Sandown it was a stiff mile on good to soft (Coral Challenge Handicap with 43k to the winner) and Spa's Dancer finished 3rd of 14 beaten just 2L by the impressive Trade Commissioner (upped 7lb after that win) who is a late progressive 4yo trained by Gosden for Lady Rotschild who has won 3 of his last 4 starts and is the market leader of the Betfred Mile (Heritage Handicap) that will be run at Goodwood on the 3rd of August. That very good third came off a 1lb lower mark and Spa's Dancer had run very well also on his previous start when crossed the Irish Sea to make a visit at the Curragh on the 30th of June to finish 2nd of 14 in another rich and quality mile. Today's jockey Chris Hayes is a perfect choice imho as he is strong rider who's enjoying a very good season (26 wins so far). The draw in stall nr.5 isn't bad at all and even if facing a tough competition with plenty of good milers he has to have a very good chance off his current in this form, handles any ground and could bring back to Ledbury a big prize (€69k to the winner).

[fintron]

Re: bbotd tues 31st 5.25 goodwood Ganas - really quirky customer that could win by half the track or come stone cold last depending on whether he turns up in his mind. Handicapped to go well if on song, and open to more impropvement over this trip. 12/1 Bet Victor, 0.5 pt EW

[jayalexander]

Re: bbotd tues 31st 3:10 Goodwood - Libranno Hughes and Hannon are going to have a very successful Goodwood, I feel. The pair won this race last year and Libranno's a multiple group 3 winner. Hasn't managed a Gp2 win since his 2yo days, but looked to have a lot in hand as he passed the line at Newmarket at the end of June. Backed him then and I'll back him now! 9/2 bet365 - win

[Boulder5111]

Re: bbotd tues 31st B2.25 Capes Best 0.5pt E/W 12/1 Stan James It's no surprise to see that there's been a little money for this unraced horse and that certainly is a positive sign. On breeding it should be a decent animal and the ground will be in its favour. It's one of the oldest 2-y-o in the race and the stable is absolutely flying (and has been amongst the winners in maiden races) Martin Lane is a great jockey booking and a big run could be on the cards.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: bbotd tues 31st 7:35 Perth - Some Fiddle - Back Ran two really good races in his last 2 races and has been unlucky to bump into one too good on both occasions. This is weaker though and represents a good chance. It's unlikely to be pretty but a clear round of jumping should be good enough for him in this company 1pt win @ 8/15 Bet365 BOG

[robertob]

Re: bbotd tues 31st 15.55 Ayr: The Tiger @ 9/4 VC Very impressive win at his seasonal debut three weeks ago at Ripon which was only his second start overall. He missed the break and had to be hard ridden to get back into contention, he didn't get the clearest of runs as wel was also slightly outpaced 4f out, yet he won comfortably only hands and heels ridden. His opening mark of 79 looks not harsh and with likely improvement for the step up in trip he should be very hard to beat in this rather poor field.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: bbotd tues 31st Decision By One 2.15 Ayr. 1 point win. Looks solid here with the ground seemingly racing on the faster side of good. The trip's fine and with the main dangers having weight rises to deal with, it all points to a win today. 5/6 Bet365 (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: bbotd tues 31st BARABOY 2.25 Beverley. 1 point win. Did fairly well on debut considering the trip was against him. Races over a much more suitable trip today and should be better for last time's experience. Trainer in good form and no surprise to see him run very well at a big price in a very unexposed race. 20/1 Bet365 BOG

[markmywords]

Re: bbotd tues 31st 16:50 Goodwood Snow Bay - Dandy Nicholls sees a nice profit when going to Goodwood nd hopefully I have chose a good horse was 20/1 but unable to type up until home from work. Horse has won at distance and going 1st time at course. Looking through career form after a run at Southwell where led until 2f and then stays one paced runs in Britain next time and wins on the turf. Last win was class 3 off a mark off 87 is 84 today. Last run let until 2F out at Southwell then landed 4th hopefully a good prep run for today. 0.5EW 16/1 Bet365

[BillyHills]

Re: bbotd tues 31st 735 Perth: Some Fiddle (8/15 Bet365) Cant really fancy anything over the jumps so will side with Gordon Elliott and Timmy Murphy up at Perth, he looks to have Ryton runner to beat but was happy to take that one on at Cartmel last time as just cant jump properly, he did run ok here at Perth once but will need to improve to beat the Irish challenger who has some soild if not sparkling form in the book and only needs to reproduce his last run to take this.

[robertob]

Re: bbotd tues 31st

15.55 Ayr: The Tiger @ 9/4 VC Very impressive win at his seasonal debut three weeks ago at Ripon which was only his second start overall. He missed the break and had to be hard ridden to get back into contention, he didn't get the clearest of runs as wel was also slightly outpaced 4f out, yet he won comfortably only hands and heels ridden. His opening mark of 79 looks not harsh and with likely improvement for the step up in trip he should be very hard to beat in this rather poor field.

Non-runner. :zzz 18.40 Galway: Maundy Money @ 10/1 EW Boyelsports Two times course winner who finished another two times in the money from seven starts here. He came a long way down in the mark and he's not getting any younger but the fact that he won last October of a mark off 80 - so a 9lb higher mark than the recent one - makes it pretty clear that he's very well handicapped. He is best over 7 furlongs and needs a bit of juice in the ground which means he's perfectly suited by the conditions of this race. He also comes back into form as he finished a solid 3rd a fortnight ago, yet he drops another pound in the mark. I think he'll be very competitive, though it is clear that you need a bit of in-running luck in this race. With a normal run I can't see him out of the money, however.

[BillyHills]

Re: bbotd tues 31st Top two not showed yet? Later runners

7:35 Perth - Some Fiddle - Back Ran two really good races in his last 2 races and has been unlucky to bump into one too good on both occasions. This is weaker though and represents a good chance. It's unlikely to be pretty but a clear round of jumping should be good enough for him in this company 1pt win @ 8/15 Bet365 BOG

735 Perth: Some Fiddle (8/15 Bet365) Cant really fancy anything over the jumps so will side with Gordon Elliott and Timmy Murphy up at Perth, he looks to have Ryton runner to beat but was happy to take that one on at Cartmel last time as just cant jump properly, he did run ok here at Perth once but will need to improve to beat the Irish challenger who has some soild if not sparkling form in the book and only needs to reproduce his last run to take this.

Non-runner. :zzz 18.40 Galway: Maundy Money @ 10/1 EW Boyelsports Two times course winner who finished another two times in the money from seven starts here. He came a long way down in the mark and he's not getting any younger but the fact that he won last October of a mark off 80 - so a 9lb higher mark than the recent one - makes it pretty clear that he's very well handicapped. He is best over 7 furlongs and needs a bit of juice in the ground which means he's perfectly suited by the conditions of this race. He also comes back into form as he finished a solid 3rd a fortnight ago, yet he drops another pound in the mark. I think he'll be very competitive, though it is clear that you need a bit of in-running luck in this race. With a normal run I can't see him out of the money, however.

[nickf88]

Re: bbotd tues 31st 8:20 Worchester - Theroadtogorey - 1pt Win (14/1, William Hill) Potentially one for handicaps over fences rather than hurdles as the trainer Burke seems to prosper with chasers but looked like it wanted further in it's race before last, but did go off 9/2 favourite last time when finishing tailed off but obviously was fancied by someone that day. That race was over 2 mile and it is now stepped up to 2 mile 7 which seems a dramatic step up in trip but hopefully will revel in it today on ground which is also completely different to last time (ran on good to soft/soft in places all races so far/good to firm ground today). This will either give me a run for my money or be completely tailed off but will go into my alerts if shaping like a chaser in the race, as same owner and trainer combo as Hunt Ball who went from poor hurdle form to handicap chases and the rest is history. May well not be anywhere near that sort of horse but hopefully will appreciate the step up in trip today but may well be one for the future. EDIT - Has actually ran once on good to firm ground but was again tailed off.

[DC]

Re: bbotd tues 31st 20:05 Perth SOTOVIC 12-1 Sporting bet 0.5pts e/w Trying to scrape a bit of money back at the end of the month and seek out some value here with old boy Sotovic. Has won three times at Perth, won't mind any further cut in the ground as wins have come on gd/sft, soft and heavy going. Recent form isn't great. A mark of 122 won't have helped last time out, last winning mark was 111. The race previous to that was a higher class of race and wasn't that disgraced finishing 7th off of 115. The race before that would've been too short a trip. 3miles is a good trip for this horse and tonight runs off 117 (claimer takes off 3) and so 114 at a course he likes over ground he's proven on makes this a value bet against a favourite who suprised a lot of people when winning his last race and now faces a penalty at skinny odds.

[Lodge]

Re: bbotd tues 31st 8.50 - Worcester - The Sliotar @ 5/2 Ladbrokes Sorry for the late entry, had a nighmare of a day at work, missed all of the decent flat action and then go to post my selection and the computer freezes so i'll keep this short and sweet! Excellent effort in defeat last week when 2nd to a well handicapped horse pulling 30L clear of 3rd. Is turned straight out to have another go off what looks like a winnable mark before a 7lb. Richard Johnson onbaord once again for Phillip Hobbs, would be surprised if it doesnt make the frame.

[smith17]

Re: bbotd tues 31st 20.50 Worcester: Comehomequietly, 10/1 Stan James, 1pt win Comehomequietly finished last year in fine form, winning his last two races, including a c&d win over fences. His last three runs have been over fences and today he goes over hurdles. He hasn't run since October but he won after a four month break before so could go well fresh. It is nearly two years since he last won over hurdles but he has been running over three miles over fences and this distance appears to suit him. He has run twice at Worcester, winning both times. Trainer David Rees has a decent record at Worcester and a decent partnership with jockey Paul Moloney.