July 16 - July 22

[CzechPunter]

Plenty of action this week as well.

[dory24]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Couple of early challenger selections before the prices move for me: Yannick Mertens to beat Maximo Gonzalez. 1.85 @ Bwin Mertens has shown good progress since joining with Christophe Rochus earlier in the year. Three consecutive challenger quarter-finals in his last three tournaments have given him confidence and he has lost to the eventual winner in each, pushing Janowicz and Robredo, two very good players at this level close. In his home country, he will fancy his chances of another good run. Gonzalez has had a couple of decent results on the clay recently with victories over Gimeno-Traver, Volandri and Alund in recent tournaments. However, in recent times, his record outside South America has been pretty poor, and I think he may struggle against the in-form Belgian here. Jonathan Dasnieres de Veigy to beat Enrico Burzi. 1.5 @ Bwin The Frenchman has been in good form this year, reaching the final in both Napoli and Ostrava. He has only been losing to good challenger players recently (Zopp and Kavcic) and should be a stronger favourite in this match in my view. The Italian has been in awful form in recent months, amid fitness concerns. He was hammered by Marco Cecchinato last week and has been struggling to win matches at Futures level over the past two months. Unless he steps up several levels, I don't see him troubling the Frenchman...

[Atko]

Re: July 16 - July 22 A lot of the lines are still forming but more than happy to take this one for tomorrow ... - BERNARD TOMIC +2.5 GAMES v Benoit Paire (ATP Gstaad, R1) @ 1.94 with panbet I'd make Paire a very slight favourite, something along the 1.85 mark, so I certainly wouldn't be giving any sort of plus to Tomic. Two young players but Tomic is the more consistent for me. Paire has serious mentality issues at the moment. Often when he's losing, he lets his temper get the better of him. Happened against Dustin Brown last week, who on ability he should be destroying. Also think Paire is too reliant on the drop shot and hasn't yet worked out the best way to assemble his armoury. Talented, but erratic. Tomic is also a bit up and down but has more consistency in rallies and that could be the key here. Will keep it steady and I can see him drawing errors from Paire. Both men will feel they can win but a +2.5 game handicap is too generous for me on the Australian. Pace will be more like a hard court at altitude for Tomic so expecting him to be more competitive than normal on clay against decent players. Ran into a good one in Thomaz Bellucci last week but this is easier, and I reckon he can keep it very close. :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Back Philipp Kohlschreiber to win ATP Hamburg for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 with Bet365 Here go my outrights. Kohlschreiber simply seems to be overpriced here. He is always tough on home soil and this is a tournament that might be right up his alley. He is playing well these days and his draw is better than it may look like in all honesty. Nicolas Almagro has an injury, Juan Monaco will be tired, Fernando Verdasco is in a poor form, etc. Kohli can beat anyone on a good day and this price looks good to me. For the full preview click here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-hamburg-betting--philipp-kohlschreiber-can-prevail-in-germany Back Andy Roddick to win ATP Atlanta for a 1/10 stake at 7.00 with Stan James Well, it is either Roddick or Isner in the first half of the draw (Anderson should not be able to do much damage at the moment) and Roddick is certainly the play here. Isner will be tired after Newport and I cannot see someone like him winning two tournaments in a row. On the other hand, Roddick will be fresh and I have to admit that he has bounced back really well in the grass court swing, so I can see him doing well this week. For the full preview click here: http://www.punterslounge.com/atp-atlanta-betting--andy-roddick-looks-a-bit-overpriced-in-atlanta

[slider24]

Re: July 16 - July 22 WTA Bastad Qualifier - Carina Witthoeft to beat Jill Craybas @ 6/4 BET 365 Strength (6/10) Witthoeft is only 17 years old but she's been on a tear in recent weeks, winning a tournament at ITF level and she's beaten some good players this year like Pironkova and Amanmuradova (yesterday). So overall she's looking to be a gal to be reckoned with and I reckon she stands a good chance of getting past the old veteran Craybas tomorrow. Craybas can still play at a high level but she struggles to string matches together at her age(she's 37) and she's already won two matches in a row in qualifying so she is due a letdown. In recent weeks she's lost 6-2 6-0 to Brianti and also lost to Feuerstein 6-1 in the third so if you can take her into deep waters she can crumble a little bit. I think Witthoeft will give her all she can handle tomorrow and will be end being too fresh and strong down the stretch for the American. :hope

[Atko]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Two more for today: - TOMMY ROBREDO -3.5 GAMES v Federico Delbonis (ATP Gstaad, R1) @ 1.98 with panbet Saw a fair bit of Robredo last week and liked what I saw. He was the only man to take a set off eventual champion David Ferrer in Bastad, so that shows his level is decent. He's coming back from injury but got some good wins under his belt against guys he'd be expecting to beat on the clay. Delbonis is very beatable for him today. The Argentine has had a poor year after some good showings last season in Germany. He was easily overpowered by Jan Hajek last week and seems to be struggling with his timing. Lots of his shots were going out and I put that down to the massive backswing he has, which makes it harder to control the ball. He did beat Robredo a few weeks ago but the Spaniard retired when a set down through injury. Evidently in better shape now and hungry for ranking points. I expect him to prevail and cover the line here. - MATTHIAS BACHINGER +1.5 GAMES v Robin Haase (ATP Hamburg, R1) @ 1.94 with panbet It's hard to fancy Haase right now. The Dutchman is clearly a talented player but barring a good run in Monte Carlo this year, he's done very little. He's also lost to some pondlife, as far as he's concerned, guys like Mate Pavic and Lamine Ouahab on the clay. Seems now to only raise his game in the bigger events (played well at Roland Garros and Wimbledon) and I think he's a vulnerable favourite against Bachinger. The German made the quarters in Umag last week and wasn't too far off beating Marcel Granollers. He's not a particularly attractive player to watch but he has a big serve and can hit winners off his forehand. He seems to me to be in a better place right now than Haase, and on home soil he's worth taking on a plus in what could be a close match. :hope

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Back Flavio Cipolla (+1.5 sets) to beat Marin Cilic for a 1/10 stake at 3.40 with Paddy Power I do expect to see a few upsets this week and Marin Cilic might be one of the players that are not going to do that well. He has just won the tournament in Umag and he will need to start preparing for the Olympics as well, so I cannot see him being focused today. Might edge Cipolla in the end, but the Italian can be a frustrating match-up and should be able to get something from this match. For the full preview click here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cipolla-vs-cilic-betting--flavio-cipolla-might-be-more-competitive-than-the-odds-suggest Back Pablo Andujar to beat Albert Ramos for a 2/10 stake at 2.00 with Bet365 I am not the biggest fan of H2H records out there, but there is something in this match-up. 9 meetings, 8 wins by Andujar - and that includes two victories from the beginning of this year. Andujar is having a poor run right now, but he did not play that badly in Stuttgart and the fact that he has already managed to win a doubles match in Hamburg might play a role as well. I would definitely have him as the favourite today. For the full preview click here: http://www.punterslounge.com/andujar-vs-ramos-betting--pablo-andujar-to-defeat-albert-ramos-once-again

[dory24]

Re: July 16 - July 22 The Mertens match is still to come tomorrow, but a nice winner on Dasnieres de Veigy. Having backed him at 1.5, he actually started the match at a best price of 1.14, although put in a pretty dismal performance, scraping through in the end. One more for tomorrow for now: Ivan Sergeyev to beat Marek Michalicka. 1.65 @ Bwin (Poznan Challenger) Sergeyev has played most of his tennis at Futures level this year, but has been on an incredible roll. He has reached the final of each of the last eight ITF tournaments that he has played in, winning three of them. He stepped up to the Challenger level for the first time this year last week in San Benedetto, where he beat Marrai, Greul and Inzerillo to reach the semi-final, where he lost in three sets to Andreas Haider-Maurer. He is strong from the baseline and capable of hitting winners and he is full of confidence at the moment. Marek Michalicka has had a decent year, winning two Futures tournaments, but has struggled to lift his game to the Challenger tour. A second round appearance in Milan earlier this month is the best that he has achieved. He has more experience at this level, but does not have any great results to back it up.

[Striker]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Yung-Jan Chan v Yanina Wickmayer Over 19.5 Games @ 1.83 [bodog]...Stake,1pt Favourite Wickmayer had some tough matches last week,and i think Chan will be up for the fight tonight

[caligulaxx]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Does anyone have the faintest clue whats up with Nando? I remember him being around number 6 or 7 in the atp ranking not so long ago and playing some really solid tennis and then everything started falling apart for him although i don't recall him being injured or anything like that. His current ranking is 16 but that really only proves how unfair the atp ranking system is. I can't understand how he can lose to such weak opponents

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 16 - July 22 No motivation, no will, plenty of small injuries or hassles.

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Back Steve Johnson to beat Jack Sock for a 3/10 stake at 1.71 with Pinnacle I am like Verdasco in terms of form these days, but I can definitely see the fortunes changing for me quite soon. Let's hope that the tide will start turning today. I saw Johnson against Young and that was some good stuff, top 150 material for sure at least if he can keep that up. Sock has managed to get past Bogomolov, but he is injured now and I cannot see him beating Johnson, who has shown a better performance than him on Monday. For the full preview click here: http://www.punterslounge.com/johnson-vs-sock-betting--steve-johnson-can-confirm-his-improvement-with-a-win-over-sock Back Paul-Henri Mathieu (+1.5 sets) to beat Stanislas Wawrinka for a 3/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddy Power Stan the Man starts his Gstaad campaign today, but he has not played since Wimbledon and I am not really convinced about his form. He is dropping sets to basically everyone these days and he will be up against one of the most experienced players on the tour right now. The Frenchman has managed to defeat Andreev without losing his serve and a similar performance today should get him at least one set. For the full preview click here: http://www.punterslounge.com/mathieu-vs-wawrinka-betting--the-experienced-frenchman-can-challenge-stanislas-wawrinka

[Striker]

Re: July 16 - July 22

Yung-Jan Chan v Yanina Wickmayer Over 19.5 Games @ 1.83 [bodog]...Stake,1pt Favourite Wickmayer had some tough matches last week,and i think Chan will be up for the fight tonight

Chan won first set 7-6..but Wickmayer then retired so bet VOID:spank

[chris666]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Great call on the Mertens match Dory, followed your pick. Good luck for today

[dory24]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Well, Mertens hammered Gonzalez, making that one a nice winner at decent odds. The Sergeyev one was suspended until today, so still waiting on that one. One more for me today, agree with CzechPunter here: Steve Johnson to beat Jack Sock. 1.73 @ William Hill I was pretty impressed with Steve Johnson in his last match. He played very solid tennis in the first and third sets, although his level did drop in the second. Tactically, he approached the match well and got the rewards to earn his first ATP main draw victory. Jack Sock is talented, but he was poor against Bogomolov. Fortunately for him, Bogomolov was even worse. It was a horrible match, which neither player really deserved to win. Sock served fairly well, which was the only bright point really. He will have to improve his level significantly if he is going to win this match, and I am happy to take him on here...

[Pensioner65]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Marco Trungelliti to beat Thomas Schoorel Bercuit Challenger @2.20 William Hill(5/10) Match is played in next hour or so.Slider had him as one of his picks last week & came through.Today Trungelliti(s224) meets Schoorel(s209) in this last 16 round match.Trungelliti has started 2012 in decent form of 28w/15L on clay this season.Recently has beat Lorenzi in the Umag Challenger & gave Berlocq a tough match last week but finally went down 6-7 6-4 1-6 .Last round of this event he comfortably beat Zverev 6-3 6-4.Schoorel started off the early part of 2012 in decent form with a couple of semi-finals but in June/July he has been struggling.If both players were at the top of their game it would be a close game today but I'm going with Trungelliti who's playing better at this moment(17 wins in his last 23 games on clay).Decent price today.5pts win

[Pensioner65]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Martin Fabrice(-1.5 set) to beat Stefano Galvani Recanati Challenger @2.30 Betway(6/10) So gutted to miss a big price(was around 3.75) on Martin Fabrice last round vs Karol Beck.The frenchman is defending champion of this event & is playing on his favourite surface.Only 80 places between them in the current rankings but miles apart when it comes to quality.Fabrice totally destroyed Beck in the last round 6-3 6-1 & will be in determined mood do the same to Galvani & book his place in the Quarter Final.Galvani is simply not playing well & lost his last 7 matches out of 9.I cant see anything apart from a comfortable 2-0 win for Fabrice today.6PTS win

[Cassius Marcellus]

Re: July 16 - July 22

Chan won first set 7-6..but Wickmayer then retired so bet VOID:spank

That was diabolical. She won her serve at 3-3 then broke serve to go 5-3 up. Chan fought back to get to 5-5, then it went 6-6 Wickmayer left the court for a mini break, came back and lost the tie break and the set, and then walked off. No doctor or trainer called. I had an acca, she was my last leg. After she lost the first set I settled down to wait for a chance to trade in set 2, but within seconds her price went to 3, 4, 8, 20, 100 and betting was suspended. I was told later that BETFAIR are the only mob that don't void bets after the first set is completed and a player retires. I have no idea if that is true.

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 16 - July 22 They are not the only bookie, Pinnacle do that as well at least.

[lato89]

Re: July 16 - July 22 czechpunter, what about anderson & roddick dobule for higher stakes?

[junesixth]

Re: July 16 - July 22 many books dont void bets even if players retire, or if 1st set is not completed: http://tennisbios.com/view/tennis-bookmakers

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Well, I am not hitting anything these days, so do not trust me too much :D Anyway - Roddick should get the job done, Mahut was not great against Capdeville, but I would not trust Anderson with higher stakes, he looked a bit cranky against Lorenzi and Russell can have a good performance in him on home soil. Not a double I would want to have high stakes on, especially at those odds that are available, both can fail, although Anderson probably more often than Roddick.

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Back Nikolay Davydenko (+4.5) to beat Nicolas Almagro for a 2/10 stake at 1.81 with Pinnacle Three for me today, four in total with the Johnson bet still in. Almagro seems to be in a tricky spot here, the Olympics are coming up and his arm seems to be a bit problematic. Neither player is playing well at the moment, but I expect Davydenko to find some solid stuff once again and the handicap looks a touch big to me, would have it at 3.5 games. For the full preview click here: http://www.punterslounge.com/davydenko-vs-almagro-betting-nikolay-davydenko-might-cover-the-handicap-line-against-the-spaniard Back Anabel Medina Garrigues to beat Johanna Larsson for a 2/10 stake at 1.71 with Pinnacle Garrigues has to be the pick here. She is still a class above Larsson for me and I would expect her to find a way through to the next round. Larsson can be tough to beat, but she will have to be on the top of her game in order to have a chance here. Garrigues will move her around the court and that should lead to a lot of unforced errors. The price is good enough for me. For the full preview click here: http://www.punterslounge.com/medina-garrigues-vs-larsson-betting--anabel-medina-garrigues-should-be-able-to-cope-with-johanna-larsson Back Sofia Arvidsson (-3) to beat Arantxa Rus for a 2/10 stake at 1.93 with Pinnacle Cannot see past Arvidsson here in all honesty. She has a great H2H record against Rus and should be able to complete the hat-trick in her home country. Rus is still hit or miss, can be great on one day and produce tons of errors on another one. She is obviously fully capable of having a good day and beating Arvidsson, but that is not going to happen very often. For the full preview click here: http://www.punterslounge.com/arvidsson-vs-rus-betting-sofia-arvidsson-should-be-too-strong-in-her-home-country

[slider24]

Re: July 16 - July 22 WTA Bastad - Mariana Duque Marino to beat Klara Zakopalova @ 2/1 BET 365 Strength (5/10) May seem a strange bet on the face of it, and may well turn out to be, but I have to question the motivation of Zakopalova here. She's had a tough season and busy season so far, has played pretty well in the last few months including pushing Sharapova at the French, but now is around the time she could throw in a flat performance. She's still prone to that despite recent improvements and she's been a bit sloppy recently in terms of losing the first set and if she starts off slow tomorrow I wonder how much resistance she will put up this time. Duque Marino is also pretty decent player on clay; she's beaten some good players on the surface this year and apart from the Cornet match last week she usually puts up stern resistance. She's still young and improving and has beaten Zakopalova on the surface before two years ago. She's also come through qualifying here so is obviously motivated to deep into the tournament. I think she can make this competitive and if Zakopalova is not fully concentrated she could easily lose.

[homunculus]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Hamburg F. Fognini/P. Kohlschreiber (O 22) @2.03 Pinnacle (5/10) Foggy has to get some points after his early Umag exit. Kohli not in the form he was earlier this year in Munich. I expect tight battle here. Bastad M. Johansson vs S. Peer @1.943 Pinnacle (5/10) Peer undoubtedly better player and she seems to be getting into shape lately. She was playing very good vs Dominguez Lino in R1 until Lino retired. Mathilde has too weak serve for Shahar.

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Back Albert Ramos to beat Marin Cilic for a 1/10 stake at 4.01 with Pinnacle Still deep in the mud with Davydenko falling a game short and Johnson losing 6-7 6-7 despite being a mini-break up in both tie-breaks. Ah well. Kohli and Roddick are still in, while I also have Arvidsson and Medina Garrigues in play from yesterday, so plenty of interest for me. Willing to add two small punts to that though, as I just cannot be having Ramos at this price against almost anyone on clay. He is a talented guy and should match Cilic in rallies. The Croat has the advantage when it comes to serve, but he has played a lot of tennis recently and that might bring him down. The price is too good anyway. For the full preview click here: http://www.punterslounge.com/ramos-vs-cilic-betting-albert-ramos-should-be-able-to-slow-the-croat-down-in-hamburg Back Jeremy Chardy to beat Juan Monaco for a 1/10 stake at 3.75 with Bet365 Chardy has been in fine nick so far, while the same cannot be said for Monaco. The Argentinian could have easily lost against both Stebe and Munoz de la Nava, so Chardy might be able to do the trick here, as he is a step up from those two. Solid serve and aggressive game can do the damage against Monaco, who should have problems chasing volleys all the time. Would have Chardy around 2.80. For the full preview click here: http://www.punterslounge.com/chardy-vs-monaco-betting-jeremy-chardy-might-upset-the-argentinian-in-germany

[Bepster]

Re: July 16 - July 22 What a shame, Medina Garrrigues left the court up 3-1 yesterday just to completely fall apart today. Don't know what happened but I can't help but feel that if they would have played this yesterday, we'd be looking at a Spanish winner. What a frustrating loss...

[slider24]

Re: July 16 - July 22 Duque Marino just found out yesterday evening that she was getting an olympic golden ticket after Kanepi pulled out. Not surprising she didn't turn up this morning. Thank you rain.

[IAmGooner]

Re: July 16 - July 22 ATP Atlanta - Isner vs Sock OVER 19.5 games @ 4/5 (Paddy Power:3pts) Isner is involved so why not? If he wins 4 an 3 then fair play to him, doesnt happen too often. Usual write-up with Isner involved, will be hard to break but not great on return. Sock looks a decent player, can serve and OK from the baseline.

[homunculus]

Re: July 16 - July 22

F. Fognini/P. Kohlschreiber (O 22) @2.03 Pinnacle (5/10) LOSS M. Johansson vs S. Peer @1.943 Pinnacle (5/10) LOSS

Well, backing Foggy was probably stupid idea from the very beginning, but Shahar was pure disappointment - I hate matches crippled by day long rain pause, and this is the second one I lost (the other was Djoko/Nadal at French open) :@