Germany v Italy > June 28

[stho1978]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I'm always a bit wary of looking at previous head 2 heads in tournements (especially as they can span 16 + years - England were pretty decent in 96 and 98!!!). Anyway Germany have kept something like 1 clean sheet in 9 matches and with Panbet (I know some people on here don't like Panbet) offering 13/20 for Italy to score in 90 minutes it maybe worth considering putting some money on that? Note - I had a whopping £1.88 in my Panbet account so I stuck it all on Italy to score. Oooooo I'll be on the edge of my seat to see if I can get my £1.22 profit!

[Rob the I ty]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

OMG you must be Italian! And there was I thinking I was the sole 'singer' for Italy in this case :) Yes I agree Italy are very under priced by the bookies, underrated by the punters, whilst I touted them as dark horses to reach the final the week before it all started... I hope they do well, if we see a Portugal v Italy final it will be amazing... Good luck with your bets and I just noticed your name - Rob the I ty lol

Yes the name is no lie I am of Italian descent. But I am objective when looking at them, I thought they would struggle vs England and while they played extremely well they didn't score. I've followed the Italian NT closely and they always seem to perform well when they're written off much like in 1978, 1982, 1988, 2000 and 2006. They struggle when great things are expected from them like 1990, 1996, 2002 and 2004. Their performances have been nearly equal to that of Spain and Germany IMO, but no doubt it will be a tall order. Still for a team that almost never loses in regulation the value is on the Italians in this one. I am looking at Italy +0.5 and Draw @3.40.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Well I did! I had both teams to score at 6/4, Salpingidis to score 16/1 and Germany to win 2-1 + Salpingidis which lost but was oh so nearly a big big winner. Made plenty profit there too... I don't just pull these out of a bag of sawdust you know, if's and but's is what betting is about - you can never 100% predict anything at all, so the best we can hope for is to read the stats apply that to the recent form and conditions, and try to make the best calls we can usign the best value odds we can get. Then see what happens. To be honest everybody has this familiar love in with Spain/Germany and I myself have backed Germany all the way so far - but this time I just feel they have an even chance to win draw or lose, and if they draw and it goes to pens then it's anybodies game. Italy should never be underestimated, that's just my view. People underestimated Russia against the Czechs and I got big wins there because the bookies did it too. And again with England getting the 0-0, daft odds considering how likely that one was... Now I think Portugal and Italy both to go through, though they are not currently in vogue against the illustrious but somewhat dull Spanish and the effective but lacklustre Germans are both value bets with a decent chance of a return. Just my view of course.

Sure ;). Its just my job to ask questions to get nearer to the point where I see how the game pans out. This works best with critique and discussion. What I meant was that greeks had 1 chance and made two goal. Italy had 20 chances and made zero goals. Its no surprise cause they lack a regular goalscorer. For me Balotelli isnt mentally ready for this tourney. He needs another 2-4 years to be a consistent player. Russians have an awfull mentality on the pitch. You wont get that with germany. And germany isnt underestimating italy at all. They are all focused about this game denying any question about spain. If this game goes to extra time then it will be germans game. They have much more opportunities to substitute fresh players in who are the same level or even better. Italy wont be fresh enough to play the same tempo in extra that they played 3 days ago... no way.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Well it's all there in back and white on my website... You can have a look yourself if you like. But I see where you are going with this point of seeing how the game will pan out. I just think from the first game onwards, the nearer you get to the final the games become less and less predictable in this way so it then becomes more about who wants it more (with the players I mean). Knockout tournaments rarely favour "the best" footballing side as I said before. All you have to do is look at the past winners for this. Spain may have been the "best" footballing side for absolutely ages but have only ever won 2 tournaments. Italy have won far more without being the better side, and in club football we often see this to be the case too (Porto, Chelsea, Liverpool winning the Champions League). When we look into the results of these past competitions, and try to figure out where the best value bets were - so we can find the best value bets in todays competition; we can see that the early group stage results in general are far easier to predict than the later stages. In general I find that the 'underdog' team produces another 10-20% in performance from their players whereas the 'favourite' seems to underestimate their opponents. And we see this trend throughout recorded football history. So all these people just assuming that Spain will win because they are "the better side" should really delve deeper into this competitions history, and the teams who have won it in past years. Then you will see that it is not just as cut and dried as best team wins. Spain of course cannot be written off but as I see it, they will have to play extremely well and produce a top performance to beat Portugal who are far more likely to produce a winning performance at this stage as they did in Euro2004 when nobody expected them to keep a clean sheet and score 1 against Spain.

I never said that. I explained my pick in detail and try to find out why so many favour Portugal. I see that you have much statistical analysis to your bets. I try to get more into the details on the pitch and what I observe and think will happen come match time and not what has happened 5 years ago.. For me The 04 game has like 1% influence on this game. 04 Spain was a completely different side playing much different football. You can compare it with 2010 and there spain shut ronaldo out. They had some problems at the start but once they hit their gear Portugal was shut down. They evolved their passing game even more with playing 4-6 and Portugal will have problems with it as their defense needs to track much more players and movements while their midfield isnt creative enough to go forward exposing their back watching how Nani and Ronaldo play 1 vs 3. A game will be decided by tactics, form and quality(etc..) but not on games that are 4 or more years old. But well maybe we have just different approaches. I tried the statistics betting years ago and it only lead to minor profit. Once I looked deeper into the games and matchups I just started to pick the winners no matter if value or not.(it evens out) ____________________- The team who needs to step up their game is Portugal. Spain and Germany are the teams to beat. Portugal failed to win vs. Germany and was 75 minutes dominated not beeing able to do anything for the attack. Then they were awfull in defense vs. denmark and holland was the worst defensive side in the tournament that played portugal right into the cards. Vs. czechs they didnt looked that stable from the start of the game and had problems breaking them down. Only Ronaldo shuffling to the striker role won the game vs a czech side with not much talent upfront. On the other hand Spain settled for a draw vs. strong italy knowing it will be enough. Then they dominated a strong croatian side and trashed ireland. France had absolutely no chance vs. Spain. So for me while their play doesnt look pretty spain is in good form and dominating every opponent. They conceeded only one goal. Spain sure has some more in them but I doubt that Portugal can play much better then they did vs. germany and in the other games. The danger at this stage is that all teams are good and no one can be underestiamted. But the advantage for us is that we have more info about how the teams approach the games. And clearly there is a big advantage for Spain watching the last matches. I broke it tacticly already down in the other posts. All in all while their midfield is their strength in the defense when against the ball its their weakness when attacking. Lacking creativity and offensive movement. I'm today sure that spain will qualify and opt for a narrow win for Spain as they have the defensive power to bring such a game over time. Spain 1:0 spain to qualify spain to win halftime draw obviously wrong threa,

[Gaara]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 Germany to win @ 1.96 on betfair Are people not realising that the germans has had more rest time than the italians who went to extra time and penalties with england, also the germans rested gomez during their clash with the greeks. Germans are younger fitter and hungry for it, they also do have experienced players from their world cup squad. Italians have an ageing side, and u can bet that lowe was watching the Italy v eng game thinking "all we have to do is stop pirlo." Germans to win @1.96 is great value

[Gaara]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Yes that has already been mentioned way back in an earlier post. Pirlo seems to get all the attention because the MOTD pundits are always going on about him. Real analysts of the game however would realise he is not their most influential player at all. That would be Marchesio, and their most lethal frontman has been Di Natale even though he hasn't played a full 90min match. Germany are the favourites of course nobody is debating that but if the favourites always won they wouldn't bother giving odds on anything else. I'm sticking with my bets, Italy to draw or to win, and Italy to qualify. People may see it as longshot betting but to be honest I think this match is far more even than it seems. Italy are always underestimated and they rely on this - whilst the Germans have ben heavily fancied from the off and this has aided their cause. Both teams are capable of a win in 90mins or after, and neither team is certain for anything. One of the tournaments most unpredictable games so far.

I think this is the most predictable, i mean for a heavy favourite, 1.96 is super value, dont get me wrong upsets can happen, i think it will be the biggest upsets if italy pull this off... just think in terms energy levels, germans will pull away in the second half

[ONEDUNME]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I can understand anyone thinking that any side can be knocked out in a cup game by a lesser team (the Champions League is a recent reminder of that) but I'm amazed to hear that there are actually people who believe that Italy are better than Germany:loon I found this particularly amusing

Match of the tournament for me. The two best teams in Europe face each other in what can only be described as another classic. Will history repeat itself? The last 5 times these two teams faced each other Germany failed to win.

I can only think you may have just been released from a long stay in prison and are harping back to the old days when Italy were a good team. The two best teams? Switch on your TV tonight and you will see two better teams than Italy in one go. Germany have won (that's "won", not "managed to scrape a boring draw and hope to go through with a scrappy ET goal or penalties") their last 15 competitive games or something. Italy have managed to win just TWO of their last six - and those were against the absolute shambles from both sides of the Irish border. I see a boring game ahead. I hope there's an early goal or we may be looking at only the second 0-0 game in the tournament so far.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 wrong thread

[maliniok]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

I see a boring game ahead. I hope there's an early goal or we may be looking at only the second 0-0 game in the tournament so far.

Third... ;)

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 Anyone knows if abate and de rossi trained today fully? cant find anything.. They are "running" is the news. Prandelli on the fatigue: Even so, Prandelli is not worried about possible fatigue being an issue, despite Germany coach Joachim Loew insisting his side will try to up the tempo in the second period to test Italy's legs. "We're in good shape mentally and physically. We can't afford negative thoughts, the adrenaline will make the fatigue disappear." De Rossi: "I don't just have a back problem, I also have other little niggles. But in games such as this everyone wants to be there at all costs, even though we can't field 23 players." He is a fighter but I dont think that he will be as fit as his counterparts Schweinsteiger and espacially Khedira. Chiellini is fit to play says his brother.. So Italy is clearly tired. -> Germany is fresh. Germanys coach said they will play high tempo. They certainly are able to do so. Some of their players were well rested vs. Greeks and the effort was not that hard as the italians vs. england. Italy says they will attack. I dont know what to make of this.. Maybe we will see some goals. tough its the semis.. I dont think it goes to overtime as germany knows they can have an advantage over italy while italy would certainly not be happy to play again extra time. Germany has much more possiblities to substitute fresh players in.

[sfxup]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

I can understand anyone thinking that any side can be knocked out in a cup game by a lesser team (the Champions League is a recent reminder of that) but I'm amazed to hear that there are actually people who believe that Italy are better than Germany:loon I found this particularly amusing I can only think you may have just been released from a long stay in prison and are harping back to the old days when Italy were a good team. The two best teams? Switch on your TV tonight and you will see two better teams than Italy in one go. Germany have won (that's "won", not "managed to scrape a boring draw and hope to go through with a scrappy ET goal or penalties") their last 15 competitive games or something. Italy have managed to win just TWO of their last six - and those were against the absolute shambles from both sides of the Irish border. I see a boring game ahead. I hope there's an early goal or we may be looking at only the second 0-0 game in the tournament so far.

It will be very difficult for Germany-Italy to be more boring this match...two attacking teams, great rivalry and history...I mean Portgual-Spain doesn't exactly shout excitement, does it? I think for the first time in the history of the Euro tournament there were empty seats in a semifinal...I personally struggled to stay awake, could be because I didn't have any bets on this game though..

[chuckthedog]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

I can understand anyone thinking that any side can be knocked out in a cup game by a lesser team (the Champions League is a recent reminder of that) but I'm amazed to hear that there are actually people who believe that Italy are better than Germany:loon I found this particularly amusing I can only think you may have just been released from a long stay in prison and are harping back to the old days when Italy were a good team. The two best teams? Switch on your TV tonight and you will see two better teams than Italy in one go. Germany have won (that's "won", not "managed to scrape a boring draw and hope to go through with a scrappy ET goal or penalties") their last 15 competitive games or something. Italy have managed to win just TWO of their last six - and those were against the absolute shambles from both sides of the Irish border. I see a boring game ahead. I hope there's an early goal or we may be looking at only the second 0-0 game in the tournament so far.

If you would read a bit more carefully you would realize that in no part of my post did I say Italy were better than Germany. I did say that Italy and Germany were the best two teams in the competition and I definitely stand by my statement. Spain are a team with a squad with lots of players in bad form and they aren't ticking they are definitely overrated and Portugal, well they just don't have the quality in the their team aprat from Ronaldo and a couple more players to be able to compete with the big guns. For me, Italy and Germany have been the best two teams and while I also stated that Germany was in great form, I believe Italy have that extra bit of experience, desire and less pressure than the German's, which makes this game what I said before a coin coss, though in my opinion Italy are slight favorites, anyhow the odds represent value, thats why Italy is my pick here. They shouldn't be paying more than 2.0- 2.3 for them to pass to the final, I got them at 2.9. There is a big difference between winning 15 games for a qualifier than playing a semi final. Italy historically has known how to play such games. You remember the last time Italy lost a semi final in 90 minutes? Probably not.

[chuckthedog]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

I must admit looking at Italy's injury list I may have to reassess my backing of Italy and go for the draw or Germany. Very tough to call, I definitely wouldn't back Germany to the hilt though that's a mistake just like it would have been to back Spain to the hilt today. They were fortunate not to concede in the 90 and fortunate to win the shoot out. I thought they were terrible all over the pitch, only saving grace was their last 10 mins of ET. Portugal matched them easily without a fully fit squad and less good players. They deserved to go through really. Spain once again stumble through another match they were outplayed in. Like their match versus Italy they didn't deserve that but seem to have the luck of champions about them. Will it last?

Latest reports say Chiellini is fit to play, as for De Rossi I think replacing him isn't too much of an issue. Nocerino is a very similar player. My word of advice, is for you to stick with Italy.

[ijustwanttowin!]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

If you would read a bit more carefully you would realize that in no part of my post did I say Italy were better than Germany. I did say that Italy and Germany were the best two teams in the competition and I definitely stand by my statement. Spain are a team with a squad with lots of players in bad form and they aren't ticking they are definitely overrated and Portugal, well they just don't have the quality in the their team aprat from Ronaldo and a couple more players to be able to compete with the big guns. For me, Italy and Germany have been the best two teams and while I also stated that Germany was in great form, I believe Italy have that extra bit of experience, desire and less pressure than the German's, which makes this game what I said before a coin coss, though in my opinion Italy are slight favorites, anyhow the odds represent value, thats why Italy is my pick here. They shouldn't be paying more than 2.0- 2.3 for them to pass to the final, I got them at 2.9. There is a big difference between winning 15 games for a qualifier than playing a semi final. Italy historically has known how to play such games. You remember the last time Italy lost a semi final in 90 minutes? Probably not.

You just cant ignor the history ive snapped up 3.15 on betfair. to me this match is a coin toss too but the odds on germany vs italy are silly italy could nick this. i wouldnt bet on 90 min i aint a fan of that just italy outright winner!

[sfxup]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I too believe there is value at Italy outright [email protected] and Italy to [email protected]. For the match specifically I chose to go for BTTS@2.20 which imho is a little gift. I think the game will be open with plenty of chances either side. Whatever happens, I'll enjoy the match I have antepost finalists Spain-Germany@8 and Spain-Italy@19. according to my projections these were the two most likely finals, luckily it went my way

[chuckthedog]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

You just cant ignor the history ive snapped up 3.15 on betfair. to me this match is a coin toss too but the odds on germany vs italy are silly italy could nick this. i wouldnt bet on 90 min i aint a fan of that just italy outright winner!

Betfair wasn't letting me bet high stakes on this match for some reason. Had to go with bet365 yesterday @ 2.9 its gone down to 2.87 now.

[WillyM]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 Regular browser, rare poster but thought I'd offer my opinion on this one... After Italy's opening match against Spain I thought they would go on and have a pretty good tournament and in reaching the semis I think they have done just that. However, I give them very little chance of progressing to the final. I usually call it a day as far as pre match betting goes once a cup competition reaches the semi-final stage. But I'm going to have to get involved in this one because the odds are just too good to pass up. I just can't get that passage of play out of my head during the Italy vs Ireland match when Italy were genuinely battling to hang on to their 1-0 lead against a very ordinary Irish outfit. Yes they managed that draw with Spain in their opening fixture but Spain's tendency to focus most of their attacking play through the middle of the park allowed a solid Italian defense to cope pretty well. Since then they have suffered injuries to important players and they played 120 minutes against England a few days ago. As far as that match goes Italy created a load of chances but England may as well have crammed everyone in the goalmouth with Joe Hart and invited them to take potshots. As far as the Germans are concerned, I believe they are a class above the Italians regardless of fitness levels. They got the job done against Portugal, impressed against Holland and even though they didn't play too well against the Danes they managed to win that one too. Personally I haven't taken too much notice of the way they performed during that match as all the strong favourites were poor in the final match of the group stage. The way Germany responded after conceding against Greece however was as impressive as anything I've seen in this tournament and bearing in mind what happened in the Itlay/Ireland game even if they were to go behind I just can't see the Italians being able to sit back and contain them. As far as the match goes I think it could be fairly open for a semi-final. Germany tend to go for it from the off and this particular Italian team is more attacking than in the past. As the match progresses fatigue will likely become an issue amongst the Italians which should lead to an increase in goal scoring opportunities for their opponents. Suppose I should mention Mario Balotelli as he could be a potential spanner in the works as far as backing Germany goes but its unlikely. I can't help liking the guy cuz he's entertaining and anyone who is more likely to score with some kind of crazy bicycle kick than a one-on-one deserves some points for comedy value. If he has a very good day he could potentially net a couple out of the blue but as someone has already said in an earlier post he's a few years away from any semblance of reliability. If this wasn't the semi-final of a cup I'd be taking the Germans to win it in 90. I'm going to play it safe instead at shorter odds of course but for me it will be an upset if Italy manage to get a draw out of this one: GERMANY DRAW NO BET @1.4 Betfair

[Thefuturespast]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 Totally agree with Value and Notoriouspunter... (totally disagree with Brooke - no offence intended but every opinion you have had for both Semi's opposes mine!) past fixtures in this situation are useless. Apart from the one game in 2011 you have to go back to 2006 which is utterly meaningless. Similar to todays game (ESP v POR) Italy will be ultra defensive for the 90 mins. If Germany dont score in the 1st 15-20mins I can see them slowing their attack for a period then building the attacking pressure as the game wears on. Italy to me have no potent forward or attack and I believe unless they draw a penalty will not score for the entire 90mins. The question then stands will Germany be able to break down the Italian defence. I think they will with the quality and cohesion the team has and feel the 1.8-1.9 Germany win represents value. 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline probable. Good luck all.

[chuckthedog]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Totally agree with Value and Notoriouspunter... (totally disagree with Brooke - no offence intended but every opinion you have had for both Semi's opposes mine!) past fixtures in this situation are useless. Apart from the one game in 2011 you have to go back to 2006 which is utterly meaningless. Similar to todays game (ESP v POR) Italy will be ultra defensive for the 90 mins. If Germany dont score in the 1st 15-20mins I can see them slowing their attack for a period then building the attacking pressure as the game wears on. Italy to me have no potent forward or attack and I believe unless they draw a penalty will not score for the entire 90mins. The question then stands will Germany be able to break down the Italian defence. I think they will with the quality and cohesion the team has and feel the 1.8-1.9 Germany win represents value. 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline probable. Good luck all.

History is never meaningless. You have to take it into account, even if just minimally. Historically German teams have failed to beat Italian teams, Germany has kept its identity throughout the years. Perhaps the Germans don't know how to play agains't Italy's type of game? Maybe tomorrow will be different, but to disregard the history behind these two teams could be criminal. I would at least take it into account before placing my bet, if you feel Germany are worth 1.9 to win the match in 90 minutes based on your analysis take the bet, but keep all the factors that involve this game in mind. I think its more like 50/50 chance of passing to the final for each team. Meanwhile in 90 minutes, I wouldn't give Germany more than 33% chance of winning the match, even if you give them something like 40% it would mean they have 4/10 chance of winning the match. The price for Germany straight up in 90 minutes is 1.95 right now, so there would be no value in that bet.

[TotoSchillaci]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 My thoughts on this game are that yes Germany are physically superior, taller and faster than the Italians but the Italians have a quality about them I can't fully explain. They have a know how, a way of getting the job done. And in Pirlo they have class that the Germans can't match. Schweinsteiger is a top level player who aspires to control a game to the degree Pirlo can. The Italians have always had an attitude towards the Germans that they are better than them and if they get beaten by Germans then it's something ugly. The Italians don't have the players anymore of once upon a time but tactically they are all very clever and can all be part of a system that's greater than the sum of its components. Remembering back to WC 2010 it was a very tactical battle between these 2 and I bet on 0-0 HT score. It finished 0-0 FT and in extra time italy won 2-0 with a Del Piero finish to remember. It will be a very tough game for Italy but this team has the right coach and tactics to stay in this contest. I don't think it will be 3-0. Think that they'll have a better chance starting with Di Natale though instead of Cassano who for me looks fat and tired. Brooke pointed out in an earlier that Marchisio is really the key man here and this is correct. Hope Prandelli doesn't pull him out again. Germany is nothing for them to fear. Low scoring tactical game here imo.

[arxidi]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 Klose is starting ahead of Gomez tonight, sourced from kicker.de, apart from that both teams are starting with their usual 11. This may go off topic a bit but if Gomez isn't starting in this game, and Klose appears to impress just like last game (Greece) - Who will be top goalscorer? Ronaldo is on 3 he's out, Gomez is on 3 but he may potentially not start another game if Germany are to progress. Is Klose worth backing @ 27? If he manages to score 1 or 2 this game, and then if they progress 1 in the final they'll all be tired on 3 and for the odds it seems worth it. Just need an opinion

[chuckthedog]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I agree with your post Toto, spot on analysis in my eyes. I only disagree with taking Cassano out for Di Natale. Cassano does look off physically and its no doubt after undergoing heart attack and just making it in time for this, but I thought that he has looked good in the first halves of all the games so far and while pundits on TV criticized his performance agains't England, I feel he was the most mobile player in attack, he moved from side to side, he would come in deep and make runs as well and looked very energetic, despite his poor physical form. I think Prandelli has got it spot on with substituting him in the second half though, after the first half Cassano is just too tired and gets lost in the game. Its hard to leave Di Natale out as he is always going to have chances to score, but for me its either Di Natale or Balotelli, both offer a lot so for me either is fine, but I'm 100% sure Balotelli will start. Expect Di Natale in the second half though. I think Italy looked very good with Montolivo which was key in my opinion and should have been playing since the first game. He gave them another outlet in midfield and is going to be key tomorrow.

[chuckthedog]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Klose is starting ahead of Gomez tonight, sourced from kicker.de, apart from that both teams are starting with their usual 11. This may go off topic a bit but if Gomez isn't starting in this game, and Klose appears to impress just like last game (Greece) - Who will be top goalscorer? Ronaldo is on 3 he's out, Gomez is on 3 but he may potentially not start another game if Germany are to progress. Is Klose worth backing @ 27? If he manages to score 1 or 2 this game, and then if they progress 1 in the final they'll all be tired on 3 and for the odds it seems worth it. Just need an opinion

After the game agaisn't Grece I was under the impression that Loew would go for Klose. Gomez can be lethal, but I think Loew thinks Germany can play better with Klose, and I think he may be right. Klose gets the best out of others, I think Ozil plays better with him up top than with Gomez for instance. Anyways, on the topic Klose being top scorer, I think there are just too many factors involved that play agains't this happening. He would have to score a goal or two tomorrow, I can't see Germany scoring more than 1 if even, let alone 2. Do you think he will be the one to score the goal or both goals? I can't see it happening no way. Then he would need 1 or 2 in the final, again, I just don't see it happening. Also all of this would be assuming Germany pass progress to the final and score in this game and the final. Which is anything but a sure thing. The odds may look sweet, but I wouldn't take the bet if I were you. Even at 26.0 its not worth it.

[arxidi]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

After the game agaisn't Grece I was under the impression that Loew would go for Klose. Gomez can be lethal, but I think Loew thinks Germany can play better with Klose, and I think he may be right. Klose gets the best out of others, I think Ozil plays better with him up top than with Gomez for instance. Anyways, on the topic Klose being top scorer, I think there are just too many factors involved that play agains't this happening. He would have to score a goal or two tomorrow, I can't see Germany scoring more than 1 if even, let alone 2. Do you think he will be the one to score the goal or both goals? I can't see it happening no way. Then he would need 1 or 2 in the final, again, I just don't see it happening. Also all of this would be assuming Germany pass progress to the final and score in this game and the final. Which is anything but a sure thing. The odds may look sweet, but I wouldn't take the bet if I were you. Even at 26.0 its not worth it.

Good points you have raised, I probably wont take it just needed some other opinions but may I ask, if there are 3 top goalscorers tied on lets say 4, how will it be awarded? Does it go firstly by assists or does it go by minutes played?

[cpo]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I don't see how just because they are the underdogs, Italy represent value here. Germany to me have looked awesome at times in this tournament and should take all the beating here. Their manager was able to rest 3 key players against Greece and still they won at a canter. Ozil has been brilliant and I wouldn't at all be surprised if they go with Klose instead of Gomez. Their attack was much more fluid with him in the side and they looked dangerous every time they went forward. Klose still has plenty of pace and for some reason he just comes alive in big tournaments. He needs a few more goals I think to break the German goalscoring record? Italy on the other hand have done extremely well to get this stage as nobody expected it. They did well against Spain who are notoriously slow starters in big tournaments. I think it's fair to say that this Spain team is not the same team that has won their last 2 tournaments. A few of their big players have gone missing and the loss of Villa has been massive for them. They got a draw with Croatia which is an average result and they as expected they comfortably beat Ireland. They could only beat a very poor England side on penalties and yes Pirlo looked awesome that night but there is no chance in hell he is going to be allowed that amount of time on the ball tonight. The Italians have had less time to recover from that game which will have taken plenty out of them. I just see this match being a step too far for them. I can't see the German defence fearing any of the Italian forwards, whoever they decide to play. The Germans look like a team on a mission, and this is without doubt their tournament to lose IMO. I am not one to look at previous meetings as I don't think it has much of a bearing on International matches. The Italians are nowhere near as strong as they used to be yet the Germans look to have a squad as good as any in the last few big tournaments. Italy did beat Germany in 2006 in the World Cup and have never lost a competitive game to Germany but I am sure if England can end their hoodoo against Sweden, the Germany can do the same tonight against Italy. Italy may well nick a goal but I don't think they are good enough to beat Germany tonight. I fancy the Germans to win comfortably and hopefully Klose to get closer (see what I did there haha) to that German record. Bets Max Bet on Germany to win @ 10/11 Hills Over 2.5 goals @ 11/8 Hills Germany/Germany @ 2/1 Hills Klose to score @ 21/10 PaddyPower Ozil to get man of the match 7/2 Ladbrokes

[CiderHead]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 Germany have been the most impressive side of the tournament by a distance IMO. They have plenty of goals in the side and dominate matches. Italy come into this game having had two days less rest and having played extra time and penalties. With Italy being an older side I expect this will have an impact on there energy levels especially in the second hald and can see them tiring enabling players like Ozil, Muller and Podolski space to exploit. I haven't been overly impressed with Italy in this tournament, they played well against Spain but thought they were there for the taking for Croatia. Against England I don't think they were that impressive either, they were particularly wasteful infront of goal and they won't get the same number of chances against Germany. Germany 1.91 (5/10) WilliamHill

[carat]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 Germany to beat Italy @ 1.909 (Pinnacle) Germany -1 (AH) over Italy @2.87 (Pinnacle) I came very close to backing Italy to beat England a couple of days a go (luckily I did not), but in the end I passed because of two reasons. I didn't know how Italy would handle the loss of Chiellini at the back and I think Italy have been pretty wastefull up front. In hindsight they were still decent at the back, but again managed to squander many opportunities. Not saying Cassano or Balotelli have been bad, but they just don't give you the feeling that they are very likely to score. Di Natale is lethal in front of goal, but he's fysically not good enough for 90 minutes of play and he didn't even play one minute vs. England. Germany on the other hand do have two strikers who have a great scoring record for Germany and they seem more likely to capitalise on their chances. Qualitywise I also think Germany are better then Italy. One can say Schweinsteiger has not been at his best this tournament and Boateng looks shaky at right back, but as a team they have impressed me. Germany is known for getting better and better in big tournaments and I expect a great performance by them tonight. Two days of extra rest won't hurt them either. Could be a huge adventage, expecially with Italy going to penalties vs. England. Just a couple of words on history and H2H. I don't rate it. I read in here that France and England had good records against Spain and Italy, but in the end they got deservedly beaten against teams with more quality. Italy and Germany are not only playing with two totally different teams then years ago, they also play different styles then they used to. Germany, influenced by some "foreign" players, more on technique and Italy playing positive football. I love seeing Italy play, but I think a well rested and fysically strong Germany will be too much for them tonight.

[kevshat]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 4pts Over 2.5 goals 6/4 Stan James

Italy are struggling with defensive injuries while Greece showed the Germans can be opened up in the quarter final so I expect a much more attacking semi final than the first one and with a lot more goals between two very good attacking sides. Full preview here:

http://www.punterslounge.com/germany-vs-italy-betting--german-s-strong-attack-but-weak-defence-should-mean-there-are-goals-in-this-game

[cpo]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I don't think the Greece game can be a basis for an argument to be made against the weakness of the German defence. I thought the whole German side were slow to start against Greece and they probably overcommitted players in attack which is why they got done on the counter. I can't see them doing this against Italy as they know Italy will be a much sterner test. The Greece goal was probably a foul anyway as samaras pulled the defender back which allowed him to get in front of him and the penalty was very harsh. As suggested on tele, was probably a gesture from the ref as he felt sorry for them. The best thing the Germans ever did was get rid of mertesacker. Hummels is top class and lahm is mr consistent. The keeper is top notch and I don't think they have much to fear from the Italians who have scored the least amount of goals ever to get to a semi final.

[SALVO7ITALY]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I think the key factor in this game is momentum. I fear for the Germans because having rested there top three attackers for the Greece game they might be fresh but they might be a little rusty, i.e. a lack of match practice. Italy might have had only 4 days rest but they are still in game mode ready and waiting for the next challenge. History says Germany usually struggle against Italy so I think Italy will definitely get a result here. Also looking at Italys last game against England they missed alot of chances so I can see them being quick to rectify this. Time Of 1st Italy Goal Up To And Including 30th Minute @ 4.75