Germany v Italy > June 28

[Sir Puntalot]

[TABLE=class: couponTable, width: 617]

[TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Germany v Italy (19:45 BST)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.97[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]99.33 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Sir Puntalot]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 Germany at 1.90 and above is a total gift in my opinion. Let's not get carried away with how Italy played last night, because England may as well have been Mansfield Town 2nd half onwards. If Germany man mark Pirlo, they'll win this at a canter, I really do think it's that simple.

[Aidymac]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I agree Paul, Ireland played better against Italy than England did, even though England drew and Ireland lost. Schweinsteiger will put a halt to Pirlo's game, and Germany have had a much longer break than Italy too.

[mowen982]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I think Germany will dismantle the Italian team to be honest. Italy were the better team against England but after England weathered the storm (10 mins in to the game) they had a 15-20 minute spell where they had Italy on the ropes, I felt if they scored during that period they would have won the game. After that spell was over Italy started to get back in to the game. Loew rested players against Greece and with there high quality squad I think they will win this game easily.

[Guest]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

I agree Paul' date=' Ireland played better against Italy than England did, even though England drew and Ireland lost. [b']Schweinsteiger will put a halt to Pirlo's game, and Germany have had a much longer break than Italy too.

Isn't Schweinsteiger doubtful for the game?

[mowen982]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Why are people so quick to write off Italy? You look at this history between the two teams and clearly Italy have the most wins, recent and past - have conceded far fewer goals and score many more. I know Germany are the pundits choice but apart from that, they haven't exactly been a revelation in this tournament? Come on guys really?? Or am I missing something here....? I think it will be a tight game, with little or no value on Germany though they have as good a chance to win as any. But I am waiting to see what the odds look like, with a view to backing Italy to win if I am honest. Seems like an unpopular choice though lol why is everybody so quick to bury Italy? I think they have been good so far, not amazing but easily as good as Germany. Germany haven't had any difficult games apart from perhaps Portugal, and they were fortunate to steal a headed goal in that one, 5 mins from time after having to defend for much of the game.

If you feel Italy have a chance.. put your bet on now.. There not very good.. The same as England are not good.. They picked holes through France all of the game and ripped um to bits with no striker.. Good luck with whatever bet you pick..

[bignedkelly]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Seems like an unpopular choice though lol why is everybody so quick to bury Italy? I think they have been good so far, not amazing but easily as good as Germany. Germany haven't had any difficult games apart from perhaps Portugal, and they were fortunate to steal a headed goal in that one, 5 mins from time after having to defend for much of the game.

not the way i seen the germany portugal game at all its germany to win comfortably for me

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 Germany did play well vs. Portugal. They didnt want to risk everything. Portugal deserved a point for defending well and attacking well the last 15 minutes. But apart from that you cant say that germany didnt deserve the win. They just played calm and controlled football in the group stages while Portugal and espacially holland did panic more then once. So germany did everything right. 3 games later germany showed their attacking talent and Loew has to make now a difficult decision on who to play as all attackers are at least very good international class. The starting attackers from the first 3 games did rest a week. Every player in the attack who comes into the game is expected to score. With the italians its different. They have no goalscorer who scores regular goals for the national team. They creat chances but are not quick and calm enough. Compare a player like Reus with any italian player and you find nowhere a more calm, quick and good aim for the goal like he has. Italians do have slight injury doubts over de rossi and abate. With di maggio suspended they will be short at the back if abate misses the next game. De rossi is after Pirlo their most important player. Even if he gets fit intime its questionable if this is a optimal preparation. The italians didnt have that much international games last season but they are old compared to germany. I cant see how they will be able to go for the same time the same tempo as vs. England. They played with so much force, fast and intensity that I cant see them 3 days later giving the same performance vs. a team young and well rested. Germany has one player in Schweisnteiger who is not at his best. He says his body doesnt do what his mind tells him to do. But even on this position they have a good substitute in Kroos. Germany will have the longer breath this time and the italians wont be able to go germanys pace for 90 minutes. I think the italians need a fast goal that they can defend with counterattacks. The question is if both teams can play even better given the circumstances. Germany? I think so. Italy? Not so sure. Much will depend on De Rossi and Abate getting fit cause if one or two of these will sit out then they will have serious selection problems. De Rossi and Abate fit = tight game. not fit = germany win.

[chuckthedog]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Match of the tournament for me. The two best teams in Europe face each other in what can only be described as another classic. Will history repeat itself? The last 5 times these two teams faced each other Germany failed to win. Germany come into this game as heavy favorites to win the Euro Cup and in truth they have really performed well enough and they have the quality and fitness to go all the way, but one should never underestimate the Italians who all though more under the radar, have played very well this Euro Cup and have a lot of quality in their team, definitely enough to make this game a highly competitive one, with no favorites. And thats the key for me in this game, there is no favorites. Who will win? I don't know, they look evenly matched to me, each team with its own style and each team with its strengths and weaknesses. Its a coin toss. Italy come into this game with morale high and experience as well as confidence and history on their side, with no expectations put on them they can play this game knowing they already can go back home in glory, meanwhile for Germany pressure is extra high and I can't help but wonder how they will handle it. So where is the value? The value is most definitely on Italy (the underdog) priced at 2.9 on bet365 to pass to the next round, it should only be in between 2.0 and 2.3, so I definitely like the line and will take it! Italy to pass to the final @ 2.9 on bet365.

[MPLouis]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 There seems to be an arbitrage (guaranteed profit) opportunity on the 'Most Time in Possession' market at the moment, where different bookies are quoting: Germany 1.6 Italy 4.0 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/germany-v-italy/most-time-in-possession If these odds are correct then as far as I can see, if you put £1,000 on Germany with one and £400 on Italy with the other, you would be sure of making £200 profit. Probably best to check the rules if possession is equal though.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I don't understand Italy being written off? They dominated England and had over 40 shots! They conceded about 6 great scoring opportunities this entire tournament (3 to Spain, 1 to Croatia, 1 to Ireland, 1 to England) two of them goals. Yes England were poor and lacked any guile going forward but the Italian defense snuffed out any attacks and played the ball comfortably out of defense. While Pirlo is the key, De Rossi can provide from midfield if Pirlo is being heavily marked and Montolivo showed his abilities as the trequartista adding creativity and passing form that position. The issue for Italy has been finishing, an issue they've had since Prandelli took over. Germany have looked strong but Portugal played them tough and the Netherlands were in shambles defensively. Even though Italy's flawless record vs Germany in major tournaments is a thing of the past it does shed light on how Italian teams have had success vs German teams and not to mention Serie A teams usually get the better of Bundesliga teams.

[Rob the I ty]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 Another amazing stat is that Italy haven't lost a knock out game in 90 minutes since 1988, they've had 10 win and 12 draws in that span. I believe only 2 regulation losses in knock out phase since 1978.

[maliniok]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 In my opinion Germany are favourites but not as strong favourites as the odds suggest. Odds on in the semis, where you don't get by chance or accident, is just too low to back them. I'm in the camp which believes that Germany have played the best, the most attractive football in the tournament. Yes they took time to score against Portugal but up to the goal they controlled the match and it was a matter of sticking to their game plan and being patient which they did. The last 15 minutes of Portugal domination was the only 15 minutes where Germans had any problems this tournament. Holland game was absolutely great. And anyone who says that Dutch were rubbish obviously judges it by the common media opinion or results as Holland played quite well, they went at the Germans but they simply weren't allowed to do a lot. 2 quick goals killed the game. It was similar against Greece where they stepped up a gear when they needed and killed the Greeks with 2 quick goals. Wonderful stuff. And yet, despite all that as a punter I can't ignore two facts that go in Italy favour - traditionally they are a tournament team - they don't excite, at times they frustrate and yet when they find themselves in the semis you just can't write them off. Second factor is of course their record against Germany - it's unbelievable considering all the German success in history. I think Germany will qualify (not necessarily in 90 mins) but at these odds I can't see any value so am not taking a bet.

[Mustafa]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I agree with what have been said about Italy. They are in the semis and it is Italy we are talking about. How can they be priced @ 5.00. They have enough experience and quality to qualify from this tie and I would say that both sides are equal in my opinion, so the value is on Italy. Italy to Qualify @ 2.87 ​Bet365

[Kiddo112]

Haven't decided if I will have a bet on this yet, but imo it's dangerous to give too much weight to how good Italy looked against England. England sat deep with their 2 banks of four, putting little or no pressure on the ball. Of course Pirlo played a great game, but he was hardly closed down at all, im sure he couldn't believe his luck. Admittedly it was sporadic, but when Ireland pressurised them, Italy didn't look anywhere near as composed. And if Ireland can do that, then Germany certainly can. I will probably look at the goals markets myself, as agree with those that say Germany are vuberable in defence.

[bignedkelly]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

There seems to be an arbitrage (guaranteed profit) opportunity on the 'Most Time in Possession' market at the moment, where different bookies are quoting: Germany 1.6 Italy 4.0 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/germany-v-italy/most-time-in-possession If these odds are correct then as far as I can see, if you put £1,000 on Germany with one and £300 on Italy with the other, you would be sure of making £200 profit. Probably best to check the rules if possession is equal though.

nice spot but make sure that you put 400 on italy instead of the 300 stated above i am sure that this is what you meant - just a heads up also if you really want to be safe blue square are offering 17.0 on the draw so a bet of 100 on this would seal a £100 profit no matter the outcome

[MPLouis]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

nice spot but make sure that you put 400 on italy instead of the 300 stated above i am sure that this is what you meant - just a heads up

Yes of course you are right - £400. Corrected now ...

[Jase82]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 I think Italy are in the same camp as France, and England. All three are in a little group of their own and are clearly not as good as they once were. England V Italy was a game of two halfs... let's not forget that we carved out a couple of great chances in the first half, and were knocking the ball about ok for a bit. But yes, Italy could have scored a couple in the first half if Ballotelli had his shooting boots on. As it is Italy were quite shocking in front of goal, and they will need to do much much better against Germany if they are to knock them out. Once we finish cooing over the way Italy kept possession against us, we should realise that it wasn't that great a performance. For whatever reason most of our players were dead on their feet by the second half, and all were completely shot by the 70th minute. Why, who knows?? Here I'd expect Italy to withdraw a little further back, and they definitely won't see as much of the ball. I'd be surprised to see Germany not progress if I'm honest... but if Greece did it in '04 then maybe...

[pg_yid]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

There seems to be an arbitrage (guaranteed profit) opportunity on the 'Most Time in Possession' market at the moment, where different bookies are quoting: Germany 1.6 Italy 4.0 http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/euro-2012/germany-v-italy/most-time-in-possession If these odds are correct then as far as I can see, if you put £1,000 on Germany with one and £400 on Italy with the other, you would be sure of making £200 profit. Probably best to check the rules if possession is equal though.

That's a nice arb but just a warning- you are more likely to be banned from bookies if you arb. It may be better to work out which of the prices is wrong and just back that outcome. Italy keep possession well but Germany are not bad either, although they follow a more direct, attacking approach than Italy or Spain. I'd imagine Italy will not press Germany so they will be free to have the ball in their own half, though if Germany go ahead early we will probably see Italy free to have possession in their own half. Germany are rightly favourites to have most possession but I'm not sure which price is correct. Some games it is possible to pretty much know who will have most possession but this one could depend on how the game pans out.

[Aidymac]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Is that true? They can really ban you just for bidding on prices they have given without any warning? Harsh... if I had known that I wouldn't have bothered! Thanks for the heads up

Pro Punter eh! ;)

[pg_yid]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Is that true? They can really ban you just for bidding on prices they have given without any warning? Harsh... if I had known that I wouldn't have bothered! Thanks for the heads up

Yes they can, though some are worse than others and you can do what you like with Pinnacle and not get banned. I got banned from Victor Chandler as it was then called, and my account was only £45 or so in profit! I put it down to doing a couple of arbs with them...although they are notoriously bad. So be wary.

[MPLouis]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Yes they can' date=' though some are worse than others and you can do what you like with Pinnacle and not get banned. I got banned from Victor Chandler as it was then called, and my account was only £45 or so in profit! I put it down to doing a couple of arbs with them...although they are notoriously bad. So be wary.[/quote'] If they know you are 'arbing', they must know that their prices are wrong, and I would have thought the sensible thing for them to do would be to correct their prices, no? I wonder if they ban other bookmakers?

[Jase82]

They don't know for sure you're arbing though do they, surely? I thought it was more a case of whether or not a punter was consistently taking best prices... There's no real way a bookmaker can be sure someone is arbing, so I just wouldn't worry about it....

[pg_yid]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

If they know you are 'arbing'' date=' they must know that their prices are wrong, and I would have thought the sensible thing for them to do would be to correct their prices, no? I wonder if they ban other bookmakers?[/quote'] I think they would both ban you and correct their price, but only Pinnacle actually welcome (or say they welcome) 'sharp' punters who- either through arbing or simply an eye for value- reveal to them that their prices are wrong. But I have no idea how long it would take for most bookies to ban you, the only one which I have personal experience of banning me for this reason is Betvictor, and even then I'm guessing this is the reason as my account was only £45 in profit. I've read that bookies with a similar model to Pinnacle, e.g. 188bet, are much slower to ban you, and this would make sense. I don't believe that bookies actually confer with each other to check you are arbing. I think that your stakes give it away. If your stakes are an exact number e.g. £569.34 it gives away you are aiming for a specific amount of profit (and therefore likely an arber), and if your stakes are a lot higher than you would normally use then your level of confidence may make them suspicious that you are an arber. If not for these things then there's no real way of knowing, but if you are an arber then by definition a lot of the bets you place will be good value so they may end up restricting or banning you for that...at the end of the day they don't care what you methods are, if you are costing them money (or they think you might do) then they won't want to take your bets. It would be interesting to know if they ban other bookmakers. Would other bookmakers be arbing necessarily though? Perhaps bookmakers keep needing to create new accounts with different names, credit cards etc.

[MPLouis]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

It would be interesting to know if they ban other bookmakers. Would other bookmakers be arbing necessarily though?

If they are laying off bets to guarantee a profit on an event, maybe it amounts to the same thing? (I've never worked for a bookmaker, but I've heard they sometimes lay off bets with other bookies).

[valuepunter]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 How many times in this tournament are we going to hear that the value is on the underdogs, right before they get dominated? I'd be very careful looking at the past head to heads between these teams, as I am with any stats that are more than 2 years old. Their most recent encounter was a 1-1 in Feb 2011. The head to heads that have been mentioned are going back to 2006 and before. So let's look at how the team lineups compare since Germany's most recent loss to Italy on 04 Jul 2006 (2-0) - Italy players that played in that game that also played their most recent game - - Buffon - Pirlo Germany players that played in that game that also played their most recent game - - Lahm - Shweinsteiger - Klose So assuming the starting lineups stay the same, out of the 22 men that will be on the pitch on Thursday, only 5 of them were involved in the last game that Italy beat Germany. Even if they don't stay the same, the only likely addition to the above list will be Podolski. Plus both teams have different managers than they did in 2006. In my opinion historical head to heads are essentially meaningless unless the majority of the players on the pitch stay the same, which clearly isn't the case here. Plus Germany now have a stronger side than in 2006 IMO, with the additions of Ozil, Gomez and one of the best keepers in the world right now in Neuer. Italy had 20 shots on target against England and still couldn't score. Germany have a more experienced and arguably more talented keeper than England and Italy will certainly have less possession and shots against Germany. The only way I see Italy winning this is by holding Germany to a draw in 90 minutes and sneaking it in extra time or more likely on penalties. What I think is more likely is that Germany will dominate possession, go 1-0 up and screw up the Italian's defensive gameplan. Italy's response will then decide the game, but I think they'll be stuck between a rock and hard place - if they go on the attack they'll be more likely to concede another and end their game, if they keep sitting back hoping to catch them on the counter they risk a barrage of German shots and put more pressure on themselves on the occasions that they do get the chance to counterattack. I expect Italy to try and slow the game down and hold the 0-0 for as long as possible, so I'll be taking 0-0 @ 8.6 with betfair with the intention of laying it in the first half. I'll also be backing Germany 2-0 @ 9.2 as insurance against an early Germany goal, I expect this price to come in for a while as germany has attempt after attempt at breaking Italy down. I'll lay most of this off around 30 mins into the game if it remains goalless, and of course if Germany score before then the price will drop considerably. Of course if Italy score before I lay the 0-0 it'll be a full liability loss, but they haven't scored in the first 30 mins yet in this tournament and I don't expect them to against Germany. As long as Italy don't score too early I should be able to green up nicely by half time :)

[Rob the I ty]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28 Italy are better than people are giving them credit for. They breezed through qualifying, pushed Spain, outplayed a decent Croatian team, played a more disciplined Irish team, and really dominated a formidable English side. Much of this is due to many not paying close to attention to Serie A, which has improved the past couple of seasons and half the starting XI play for a Juventus side that went undefeated in Serie A. These teams played a friendly in Germany in Feb 2011 where Italy were just beginning to play under Prandelli and Germany were riding high the match finished 1-1. I don't put too much stock into friendlies but watching that match you couldn't see a discernible class difference between the two sides. I wouldn't put them in the same boat as France who have no leadership and England who are starting players like Parker and Milner. The Germans are a great side, probably their best since 1990 and maybe even since 1972/1974 if they win. We shall see come Thursday.

[pg_yid]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Well I must be the most suspicious character they ever saw then! LOL no joke my strategy always looks for a specific profit so all of my clustered bets start off with some wierd amount like £28.43 then the following ones make up the full amount (say £50 or £100). I do this because I split the stake dependent on my own odds and the amount of risk I am taking, to ensure I at least regain my stake should the riskier of the bets not come off. I see what you are saying though, if they can't prove it they won't be able to do it. But I do think if you make too much profit they will then look for any excuse to ban you. Then again surely this is bad for business? Would be really helpful here to know somebody who has actually worked inside of an online bookies so they could tell it straight. I have no idea now I have really thought it over, even what I would do in their position...

Yes to some extent maybe it is bad for business. I don't think bookies like to shout from the rooftops that they like to ban punters as it may put some of them off, I would urge people to spread the word a bit as it is a fact not many people know and may have an effect on them changing their ways in the long-term. But then again if you're a newbie and you see Betvictor has a £50 free bet or an offer like the one on Spain winning the Euros you're probably not going to care if they've banned people or not! All in all different bookies have different business models and depending on this, some are more tolerant than others of profitable punters. I agree it would be useful to talk such a person as you mention, particularly an odds-compiler. I think there has been at least one of them on here at some point.

[pg_yid]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

If they are laying off bets to guarantee a profit on an event' date=' maybe it amounts to the same thing? (I've never worked for a bookmaker, but I've heard they sometimes lay off bets with other bookies).[/quote'] Not sure it would amount to the same thing, or be identifiable that that was what they were doing to be honest. There is nothing to suggest the price they get when laying off their bet would be 'wrong' as it is always with one part of an arb. I think I read somewhere that bookies only do this when they are over-exposed, they try not to get to this point and it is something of a last resort; mostly they will try and balance their exposure by adapting their own prices. (I could be wrong about any of this though!).

[notoriouspunter]

Re: Germany v Italy > June 28

Germany v Italy head to head record: 1-1 Draw / Feb 2011 2-0 Italy / Jul 2006 4-1 Italy / Mar 2006 1-0 Italy / Aug 2003 0-0 Draw / Jun 1996 Doesn't really fill you with confidence does it? I say Italy are better than people give credit for, their languid style belies a cultured skillful football team who concede very very few (2 so far in this tournament lowest of all teams I think) and are a goal threat whenever they push forward. They have good free kick and penalty takers as we have seen this week, good midfielders who can retain possession and supply decent passes, and a solid defence who can keep up with tiki-taka or alternatively just hoof it away if needs be. Italy for me have the best chance of any team of beating Germany, who really have only performed well against a low-strength Greek side and still conceded 2 goals to them. If Greece scored 2 Italy will be able to score a few more than that! And Germany whilst irresistible in attack will not be able to attack so carelessly against Italy or they will be punished. I see a tight game, and I am favouring Italy at the moment to nick it with 1 or maybe even 2 goals if Balotelli turns up in the right mood and the team get the rub of the green.

Mate, to many ifs. The past encounters give some confidence maybe to italy but germany has the most talented team since 20-30 years. Come the next years these players might be better then the '74 team.. German Team says to this: "Then its our time now to end this history". Germany played well vs. every team and won every game deservedly(15 minutes for portugal or a possible penalty vs. denmark doesnt change that). They didnt do it in the 2010 hooray style but instead with calm and patient possession play. They evolved to this cause they need to beat spain the next years to come. With each game they played better and I expect them to peak in the finals. Italy has had many changes to their squad and has 2 days less to prepare for this game. You cant base a bet on Balotelli maybe having the right mood. You cant base a bet on greeks scoring 2 vs. germany as that is what greeks do vs. everyone. Nicking one or two of their two or three chances crazy as it is. Portugal nor Holland did score vs. Germany. Given the italian lack of converting chances this might mean italy gets none goal at all. Germany played the best football in this tourney. For me they are favourites in a Final. Italy has come farer then many thought. Tough germans are not surprised. They will be prepared for this match having 2 days more to study the opponent and train. _______ I dont see why you guys push italy that much. They do play stable football but lack the finishing and once you take Pirlo out of the game they are toothless. While all the changes at the back with injurys and suspensions dont help them. On top of that they had 2 days less to prepare. National team doctor Enrico Castellacci : “The general health of the team at the moment is tired and stressed, and it is compatible with the physical and emotional stress of the last games,” he added." Chiellini no 100% fit but might play. Abate injured and not sure if fit. De Rossi doubtfull.(“I was disappointed at the injury and hope to recover for the semi-final. I had a sciatica problem for the past few days, but ice and painkillers don’t do much. When it’s the sciatic nerve, you can’t run or change pace.”) Problems for Prandelli: http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/article.asp?cu_no=2&item_no=514942&version=1&template_id=49&parent_id=29 Yes, Footballers recover in 3 days but this is end of season and a tough game for italians after 120(!) minutes of high tempo football(england couldnt go with them after 60 minutes) So they had less games then german as many didnt play european cups. But what happened on Sunday strained them for sure and they must be expected to have lesser stamina then germans. While some german player where even rested vs. Greeks(Gomez, Podolski, Mueller) Khedira for instance can run forever it seems and he will give a hard time for Pirlo. Pirlo had so much room vs. England like he never had the past season with Juve. I honestly cant see how anyone can bet on italy. It seems you guys base your bets on many if's and past fixtures. Sure odds on Italy are tasty and if you play them for the next 10 european cups they might be profitable. Tough how they will achieve it given the circumstance..? Please someone give me a picture over 90(120) minutes how it would look like.(I really do want to find out how italy can manage that) And dont forget to factor in germanys possibilities to change the game through substitutes..