French Open 2012

[Alovenac]

Re: French Open 2012 Only losses today, maybe not the best selected pick (Roddick was a very wrong pick). Will be better tomorrow i hope so!

[Psycho]

Re: French Open 2012 Potito Starace vs Novak Djokovic. Under 25.5 games. 1.85 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Although Starace can play a bit on clay, I don't think he's got any form at the moment. He's lost way too many matches against average players lately, has only beaten likes of Goffin, Chardy, Bautista-Agut and Berlocq via retirement in his last 10 matches. Besides the Italian has got an injury on the serving hand, so that obviously doesn't help either. Easy win for Nole. Mikhail Kukushkin -3 vs Ernests Gulbis. 1.84 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Gulbis made 1/4 finals in Paris in 2008. Yes, it really happened! LOL. He can't win on Challenger circuit these days. Has not got past R1 in Paris on last two visits going down against talents like Benneteau and Kavcic. Kukushkin has been pretty good this year. He has got tricky serve and has made some results lately, even on clay which is not his favorite surface. Gulbis has lost against dudes like Janowicz and Greul in Challengers recently. Yes, he did Murray on Thursday in exhibition but Murray was a joke in that match. No form and lack of confidence still is an issue but bigger problem will be conditions. He absolutely hates to play in the morning and the match is scheduled at 11 local time and that means problems for Gulbis. Remember this is best of 5 sets match, so he will need to have a focus big time, he has not had good focus for years now. I think Kukushkin will get a win today and it might be even in straight sets. Alejandro Falla to beat Santiago Giraldo. 2.82 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Falla is absolutely retarded player when it comes to lesser matches but he naturally picks himself up when it's the big time. The guy reached R4 last year from qualies! That's 7 matches. He ran out of gas in the end and was beaten by Chela. Prior to that he knocked out likes of Florian Mayer, Kubot and Starace. He was in Aussie Open R3 this year, beating Fish... He was 2-0 and serving for the match against Federer in 2010 Wimbledon before losing in 5 sets. Those are just few examples. Like I said, he reached R4 last term, so lots of pts to defend. Giraldo has gone out in R1 in FIVE straight years here in Paris. H2H is not good for him either. Falla leads 3-1, all matches Challengers or qualies. Falla has won last 3. Massive value in this one! Eric Prodon to beat Horacio Zeballos. 3.05 @ Pinnacle (4/10) Zeballos has made life very difficult for himself. He played qualies, all three matches went to 3 sets. Bare in mind he played people like Robert, Polansky and Gojowczyk, yet still struggled big time. That's a lot of tennis played and now you have to get energy against fresh local player. Prodon will get the home support. His only surface is clay, this is his home Slam, so I expect him to perform. Zeballos perhaps with better serve but considering he is tired, the serve will go down for sure. It's only a matter of time. Interesting thing here is that Prodon has won their only meeting, beating Zeballos 6-0, 6-1 in Santiago Challenger last year. Another value bet, this time it's French player against tired opponent. Neither is world beater so have to go with the one who will be fresh. This is a Slam after all.

[Atko]

The other two bets I had on my radar were Granollers -6 and Lopez -5.5. Both seem very short. But Lopez has a hideous record in Paris and Marcel is partial to a five-setter in Slams. Don't know much about Sousa but Serra's past his sell-by date, hasn't done much since 2010. Any thoughts guys?

[Atko]

Alovenac: we need to see reasoning. You know the rules. Unfair on guys like Psycho who have just offered up some cracking bedtime reading and then you saunter in, probably a little drunk, and fire down some picks and don't bother your bahookie about reasoning because "you don't have time". If you don't have time to tell us why we should back X v Y, don't post it. Capiche?

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012

The other two bets I had on my radar were Granollers -6 and Lopez -5.5. Both seem very short. But Lopez has a hideous record in Paris and Marcel is partial to a five-setter in Slams. Don't know much about Sousa but Serra's past his sell-by date' date=' hasn't done much since 2010. Any thoughts guys?[/quote'] Thought about both long and hard. The Granollers handicap price is way too short for my liking. Would want at least 1.90 in truth but he should win with quite a bit to spare. This Lopez thing I don't understand. The odds on Serra have shortened massively in the last hour on Bet365. He's only a slight underdog for the match now which suggests to me something isn't right. Whether there's an injury for the Spaniard or not I don't know, but more than enough to make me stay away from that one.

[Dylan]

Re: French Open 2012

Heidi El Tabakh vs Aleksandra Wozniak Over 19.5 games 1.82 at Pinnacle (2.5 / 10 units) :ok Cedric Stebe vs Joao Souza Souza + 4AH games 1.79 at Pinnacle (2 / 10 units) VOID Kevin Anderson vs Rui Machado Over 35 games 1.79 at Pinnacle (2.5 /10 units) :ok

I have to echo all the comments in here so far, so well done to all the winners today, some great picks from Fishy and Slider as always. Not to shabby for myself with 2 winners and a void giving me a +4.03 profit on opening day. Happy with that and gives me something to build on. So far for tomorrow I'm still being cautious and have taken just the two, but may be back with a couple more later on. Li Na vs Sorana Cirstea For me so far this season I don’t feel that Li Na has quite been playing at the high standards that we saw in Paris last year, with the exception of Madrid (but given the issues with the surface there I haven’t given too much importance to that tournament). Outside of Madrid, she’s not looked clinical against any of her opponents and she’s gone over this line in all 7 of her other clay court matches this season even against the likes of Benesova, Scheepers and Amamuradova. Whilst Li did beat Cirstea 6-2 6-2 in the round of 32 here last year, the Romanian I feel has been playing much better tennis since the back end of last year and seems to have a bit more focus to her game helping with consistency slightly and she’s had some better results on all surfaces. This improvement I feel should allow her to get closer to Li Na than on the previous occasion, for at least one set, which I’m hoping should be enough to see this bet in. Over 18 games 1.71 at Pinnacle (2 / 10 units) Santiago Giraldo vs Alejandro Falla Again, quite surprised at how far apart the bookies have these two clay court specialists, with Giraldo currently at 1.5 at Falla at 2.8ish. Whilst Giraldo has had more successes at ATP level events than his opponent and is probably the more well known name I don’t rate him all that much and he can be very hit and miss with his form. Certainly over the last couple of years he’s always seemed a little overawed by this event, losing in the opening round in 2010 and 2011. The same can’t be said for Falla, who is protecting a whole load of points here having had a spectacular run here last year reaching the last 16. Whilst it will be tough for him to do the same again, that run highlighted exactly what he is capable of on clay. Unfortunately we don’t really see that enough on the tour events, but he’s certainly got a game that tests Giraldo as the H2H on clay in 2-0 in Falla’s favour. With this knowledge and motivation it could well spur him to fight hard for the win in this match. Falla +5AH games 1.75 at Pinnacle ( 2 / 10 units) :hope

[Alovenac]

Re: French Open 2012 Very short analyses but i don't have time enough to write it a bit longer. 2/10 Davydenko +4.5 games tb. Seppi @ 1.81 Pinnacle Davydenko playing great last week in Nice also he was beaten by Baker. But Davydenko like to have his yearly peak and i think this will be a to big line for Seppi. When Davydenko had the same form he can win 1 or 2 sets. 2/10 Giraldo - Falla over 36.5 games @ 1.81 Pinnacle Close match between 2 great clay players. Don't know who can win here easy. 3/10 Petzschner tb. Jaziri @ 1.81 Pinnacle Like to play the German with this odds. Jaziri makes good steps the last month and the German not in good form. But he can playing well (not good) on this surface. It will be a difficult match for him, but he can beat Jaziri here. 3/10 Bellucci -2.5 games tb. Troicki @ 1.81 Pinnacle Bellucci will be on his way back. Good line here, but i don't like Troicki on this surface. Bellucci showing the last weeks some good perfomance and he can beaten Troicki here in max. 4 sets. 6/10 Lopez tb. Serra @ 1.50 Landbrokes Lopez can playing great here, good odds for me to stake him big here. Serra will be playing for own public but i think this can be a easy match for Lopez.

[Alovenac]

Re: French Open 2012 Djokovic - Starace Djokovic not great on clay the last weeks, Starace can be playing very wel on this surface. But this will be a very very huge line for Djoko to cover. We see some players to struggling in some sets and i think Starace can take at least 7 games if Djoko will be finish this match in 3 sets. 4/10 Starace +11 games @ 1.93 Pinnacle

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012 Let's hope the good form in the forum carries on into Monday. Again not going made with the stakes, but I'm taking 5 in total. Was interested in a few more but the price and lines aren't what I was looking for. John Isner (-6.5 games) to beat Rogerio Dutra Silva- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) A couple of months ago I would have considered big John as an outside bet for his quarter but since the Davis cup, his form has dipped substantially. Losses to Cilic, Davydenko and Seppi don't exactly make for happy reading for the American but I fancy him to win his opening match fairly comfortably. In truth, it's a pretty good draw for him as his Brazilian opponent is not the biggest and that will benefit big John's high kicking balls so I don't see him being tested on serve very often, if at all. Atko has mentioned that he is a challenger player at best and he's already lost to some distinctly average players on the clay this year. Isner has a super chance to gain quite a few ranking points over in Paris given his first round defeat to Nadal last year and a decent performance here should see him cover the handicap. Bernard Tomic (-6.5 games) to beat Andreas Haider-Maurer- 4/5 Bet365- (3/10) Had a little think about this one and I concluded that the line should be a game higher. This really is a superb chance for the young Australian to continue his assault on the rankings and gain some points as he hasn't any to defend here. That should spur him on and see him try and prove that he's ready to cement his place in the top 20 or even higher. He's not been anything special recently on the clay, with losses to Stepanek and Kukushkin but he's beaten Giraldo and fought pretty well against Djokovic as well, and with a couple of good grand slam runs under his belt in the past year or so, he should be confident about winning this one. Haider-Maurer hasn't played too much tennis this season, with injuries forcing him to miss a fair bit of the early season. Only a month ago he retired against Rosol in Prague, and although he's come through qualification without dropping a set, Tomic despite his tender age is a couple of steps up in terms of quality to anyone the Austrian has faced excluding David Ferrer of course who hammered him in the Davis Cup. Tomic's game isn't actually a million miles away from Ferrer's in the sense that he will return a lot of balls and given the fitness problems that the Austrian has had this season, that is a worry for him. Really think this is a good draw for the Australian and I see him wearing down Haider-Maurer, and eventually his decent serve will become a touch redundant as well. Tomic has the experience of a couple of good grand slam runs behind him and I think he has enough about him to cover the handicap against the Austrian. Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Sergiy Stakhovsky- Over 34.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (3/10) Was always going to look at the overs in the all Ukrainian match here. Dolgopolov is far more accomplished on the clay than his compatriot, but we've seen in the past how he never seems to do things the easy way. He is up there with the most inconsistent players on the tour, and he's been struggling with some health conditions which leads me to think this line is too low. Stakhovsky isn't the worst player about either, and he's got a pretty decent all round game so he should be able to trouble Dolgopolov, especially if the youngster goes missing which he is prone to do during matches. Until the pony-tailed boy fixes this and shows that he can dominate the match from start to finish without any concentration lapses, I always think a poor set is never too far from his capability. Stakhovsky is good enough to take advantage of that, and he should keep this closer than the line suggests IMO. There's still no guarantees that Dolgopolov is over his health problems either so I'll back the overs in this one in what should be a competitive affair between the fellow countrymen. Eric Prodon vs Horacio Zeballos- Over 37.5 games- 11/10 Bet365- (2/10) Now I'm not expecting an absolute classic in terms of tennis on show but given the odds, most bookies are expecting a comfortable win for Zeballos but personally I'd be surprised if that was the case. The Argentinian came through his qualifiers in less than convincing style, given he needed 3 sets to see of all of his opponents and astonishingly enough, 7 of his last 8 matches have gone the distance which shows how he is another player who goes missing and is no stranger to some epic matches. It's very rare that we see Zeballos winning matches comfortably and with the crowd firmly behind Prodon in this one, the Frenchman should be able to prove decent opposition. In their only previous meeting on clay, Prodon hammered Zeballos 6-0 6-1 and recently, he's taken a set of Dimitrov and pushed Cipolla close as well. I wouldn't be comfortable taking any handicaps in this one as I sort of expect at least a couple of sets which are really comfortable for either guy, but given Zeballos' recent history, I think we could have a little marathon on our hands here in which at least 38 games will be played. One final bet for the women as well... Sabine Lisicki vs Bethanie Mattek-Sands- Over 21.5 games- 5/6 Bet365- (2/10) Would have had this line a game higher as I don't actually believe there's much between these two girls at the minute. Neither player's preparation has been ideal, especially the German who has only played a couple of matches since she retired against Williams with an ankle problem. Mattek-Sands has only played 4 games on clay all season, in which she has only managed just the 1 win against Melanie Oudin and like Lisicki, she has struggled a bit for fitness since Indian Wells. Both women are defending a few points this week which should see be fully up for the match and I expect some shifts in momentum in this one if either girl can find their feet and start hitting through the other. Both girls are fiercely competitive though and they will fight for every last point which draws me to the overs. Even a couple of tight sets could see the line through and regardless of the winner, I don't see too much between the pair come tomorrow.

[Banner]

Re: French Open 2012 Hey guys, I am just wondering how the handicap system works in tennis? I do like to bet on the tennis yet I do not know how this system works can someone please explain it to me? I Had a good day in Tennis yesterday will put some tips up in a min (Wouldnt advise following) haha! Thanks!

[Bepster]

Re: French Open 2012 again, great stuff you guys!! Here is to a good day on clay! ...can't believe I find myself backing Isner again after his terrible lackluster performances lately, but here we are.

[Bepster]

Re: French Open 2012

Hey guys, I am just wondering how the handicap system works in tennis? I do like to bet on the tennis yet I do not know how this system works can someone please explain it to me? I Had a good day in Tennis yesterday will put some tips up in a min (Wouldnt advise following) haha! Thanks!

Sure, The game handicap basically levels out the players. So you are counting all games and whoever as more games including the handicap , wins. This is sometimes a little confusing at first as the actually winner might not always win you bet, depending on what you chose. Here an example: If you back player A vs player B with a +4.5 handicap and he loses 4-6 4-6, your bet wins. Player A has 4+4=8 plus the Handicap which is 4.5, so the total amount of games is 12,5. This gives the player A an edge over player B who won the match but without the handicap only has 6+6=12 games. Handicap betting is all about how much resistance you think the favorite will allow or get forced upon him. In Grand Slam context, keeping up with handicaps over a 5-setter can be really exhausting though...

[WinningTipster]

Re: French Open 2012 Hi guys, 1 pick for FRENCH OPEN: SEPPI TO DEFEAT DAVYDENKO @ 1.6 on betfair Davydenko is near the end of his career and is unable to stay 5 sets in long rallies against top level baseliners, especially on clay court and Seppi is very good from the baseline and a good consistent clay courter.

[Atko]

Re: French Open 2012 Right, this odds drift on Lopez is nuts. He was -7 when the book opened and now it's -4.5 against Serra. Now, Lopez has been awful at Roland Garros in recent years, losing to guys like Reister ... but, this seems a ridiculous line. Lopez has had the best year of his career, while Serra has been off the radar for the best part of a year. I can't find any info on injuries - is there something sinister, or is this a massive plunge on the veteran Frenchman?

[Banner]

Re: French Open 2012 Seppi v Davydenko Davydenko had a good week last week won as the underdog a couple of times and played well, therefore i expect him to challenge Seppi and make it a close match, Seppi is also playing well, reaching the quarter final last week to get knocked out by Federer in straight sets, however he beat Wawrinka and Isner if the two rounds previous to that. This should be a close mate and id expect Seppi to win. Over 36.5 games - 1.8 At Pinnacle Kukushkin - Gulbis Kukushkin is current ranked 40 places higher than Gulbis and has had a fairly successful season on clay for his standards, winning 9 out of the 15 games hes played on clay. However Gulbis is not having the best of games this season winning only 3 of the 8 hes played, He has also been knocked out in the first round the last 2 times hes played in the French Open, therefore I would expect a Kukushkin win today! Kukushkin Win - 1.67 At Blue Square Clement v Bogomolov Both players in bad form so far this season, Bogo winning just one out of his 6 on clay this year and Clement winning 1 out of the 5 hes played this year on clay, Bogo has never got past the first round in the French Open, I would expect him to today against a weak opponent. The three times these two have met Clement has won 1 in 2 sets and Bogo has won the other 2 in 3 sets, I would expect another close game today going to perhaps 4 or even 5 sets. Over 37.5 games - 1.89 At Pinnacle

[Banner]

Re: French Open 2012 Thanks Bepster! That is pretty simple! I know how it works in football but wasnt quite sure in tennis due to the sets! Thanks!

[Bepster]

Re: French Open 2012

Right' date=' this odds drift on Lopez is nuts. He was -7 when the book opened and now it's -4.5 against Serra. Now, Lopez has been awful at Roland Garros in recent years, losing to guys like Reister ... but, this seems a ridiculous line. Lopez has had the best year of his career, while Serra has been off the radar for the best part of a year. I can't find any info on injuries - is there something sinister, or is this a massive plunge on the veteran Frenchman?[/quote'] I am really wondering about that as well. Classic case of "the books know something we don't" I guess. Bet365 has taken the hcp option away altogether and is hardly offering any play options for the match other than straight up win/loss. I wonder if it might be worth a shot on Serra? It appears that the worst case senario would be a Lopez retirement...

[Atko]

Re: French Open 2012

I am really wondering about that as well. Classic case of "the books know something we don't" I guess. Bet365 has taken the hcp option away altogether and is hardly offering any play options for the match other than straight up win/loss. I wonder if it might be worth a shot on Serra? It appears that the worst case senario would be a Lopez retirement...

The market move is so strong, I think it's best just hanging fire. I only allow myself five bets per day, so I'll save it for something else.

[Bepster]

Re: French Open 2012 ok, I'll stay away on Lopez. Regardless, it will be interesting to watch, whatever happens! Thanks again for your pov, Atko.

[Dylan]

Re: French Open 2012 I did take a couple more this morning, here are the write ups; Adrian Ungur vs David Nalbandian Odds seem a little high on Ungur and I think Nalbandian has been priced mostly on his name rather than current ability. Ungur is no mug on clay, he’s a regular on this service and whilst form hasn’t been good for a couple of months he did take the scalp of Montanes in Rome a couple of weeks ago, which for me shows what he is capable of on this surface. In all likelihood he’s probably not going to win this one, or get particularly close but I would suggest he’ll get enough games in the bag for this bet to be a winner. Indeed he played Nalbandian in a Davis Cup match in Argentina in March last year and was able to take a set of him them (that match totaled 39 games), which gives hope here. Another factor for me would be the Argentinians fitness, I think I’m right in saying that he hasn’t won any of his three or more setters on clay this year so we could see tighter sets further into the match we go. Over 28 games 1.72 at Pinnacle (2 /10 units) Petra Martic vs Michaela Krajicek This could be an interesting match up between two ladies with differing style of play and both with a likely lack of confidence on this surface. If the two head to heads are anything to go by this one could swing one way then the other and go the distance as both previous matches between these pair have. I actually mulled this one over for a long time as I’m aware that Krajicek is returning from knee surgery which she had in this last month and has been training with some kind of knee support on. However given how much of the season is still left I’d be surprised if she was risking more injuries and would guess that everything is ok with the knee. Certainly I read that she hadn’t expected to play here and because of that expectation for her are low and she can play with freedom and no pressure. I fully expect her to come out swinging and take the game to Martic in the opening set and if she can win that or at least force it very close then this bet could be a winner. As the games goes on I would expect Martic to get her moving more around the court, testing fitness and that ultimately could provide the key factor her, but by then this bet could already have come in. Over 18.5 games 1.72 at Pinnacle (2 /10 units) :hope Good luck to all today, lets hope the good form keeps up.

[fishy25]

Re: French Open 2012 Must have been a problem with Lopez then. Retired after just 5 games. Already been 2 retirements in the first half hour with Dancevic only lasting 4 games as well :unsure

[Bepster]

Re: French Open 2012 Apparently Barthel had her whole family there plus a whole bunch of fans who came to specifically see her play. Terrible performance.

[IAmGooner]

Re: French Open 2012 Davis is an annoying little pusher aswell, completely average. Barthel must have been hitting tons of errors, or playing with an injury perhaps. Barthel has definitely been overrated after a good few months on the tour. She's still a rookie.

[Psycho]

Re: French Open 2012 The only injury is a brain injury for Barthel. She's been doing this (throwing away matches) for some time. Had a feeling she'll be at it again today, just didn't believe she will do it so obviously and will lose a closer match. 2 of 3 balls went long/wide/into the net. Easy balls, I mean. As blatant as you can do it. The match against Panova last week was exactly the same. Thought in Slam she might actually would not have guts to throw it away, but was wrong.

[InfectedBoy]

Re: French Open 2012 After Barthel now we have Kukushkin, losing games like crazy after he was serving for the match in the third set. I'll be dammed if he goes on to lose this one.

[BobNL]

Re: French Open 2012

After Barthel now we have Kukushkin' date=' losing games like crazy after he was serving for the match in the third set. I'll be dammed if he goes on to lose this one.[/quote'] *5-1 in third set, had several match points and now almost going to play a deciding set. Unbelievable.

[Lahrio]

Re: French Open 2012 Looking at Pychos picks, he really has had horrible luck today. Kukushkin, Azarenka and Barthel all deciding they would either not turn up at all or play for only half the match. Some times it just really isn't your day. :\ You still have a few more bets to get yourself back on track today though, so fingers crossed for you! :hope

[InfectedBoy]

Re: French Open 2012

*5-1 in third set' date=' had several match points and now almost going to play a deciding set. Unbelievable.[/quote'] I thought he was serving at 5-3, even I would have closed it from there. EDIT He somehow managed to win after being a break down in the final set. Unreal Stuff

[Alovenac]

Re: French Open 2012 People had some leans for tommorow's games? Think that can be a profitable game after a very strange start.

[Banner]

Re: French Open 2012 Looks like iv won 2/3 of my tips :D Feel abit unlucky in the Davydenko game not to win that tip aswell! Kukushkin also made hard work of his game!