The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

[Kolo]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Using data from bwin to represent the entire market is an obvious selection bias problem

[plinge]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Once someone has a few years' betting experience it only takes a few minutes of rational (i.e. not wishful) thinking to deduce that the existence of pro sports bettors is impossible.

I assume you're not including horse racing in this supposition, because I know first hand that there are pros making hundreds of thousands a year on Aussie horse racing.

[pinkisntwell]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

I assume you're not including horse racing in this supposition' date=' because I know first hand that there are pros making hundreds of thousands a year on Aussie horse racing.[/quote'] I include horse racing. Where do they bet?

[plinge]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

I include horse racing.

Then I find it hard to take you seriously. Are you aware that Australia's largest betting syndicate is currently being pursued for $900 million tax? Gambling winnings aren't taxable in Australia unless you're proven to be a professional. Perhaps you'd like to offer your services to them, and prove to the ATO that they've simply been "lucky". http://afr.com/p/national/ato_targets_punters_club_p2kW1NQlZaaKJmkW0XK8MK http://www.smh.com.au/national/mona-founder-in-tax-office-sights-20120606-1zwqx.html http://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/millionaire-gambler-and-art-collector-david-walsh-hits-back-at-the-australian-taxation-office-claim/story-e6frfmd9-1226425030341 And trust me, although these guys are the leviathans there are quite a few medium-sized fish swimming in the punting pools who are VERY successful by most standards.

[plinge]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

I include horse racing. Where do they bet?

For the guys mentioned above it's obviously a major logistical operation, and most of their business goes through Betfair and the totes. At the next level down, the corporate bookies can be used to a point. They are quick to cut people off who bet on low liquidity races or knock off fixed odds that are above the general market; but if you bet on metropolitan races, take their generic "top odds" products and don't win too much on any one bet, there are about six or seven corporate bookies in Australia who'll let you accumulate about 40-50k profit before they limit you. However, when one account closes another can always open in a different name. ;)

[plinge]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Of course, some of the biggest operators in recent decades migrated to Hong Kong (where there are no issues about getting set, due to the mammoth tote pools). Most notable among these would be Bill Benter and the late great Alan Woods: http://www.themonthly.com.au/alan-woods-and-his-amazing-computer-nags-riches-story-mr-huge-tony-wilson-149

[pinkisntwell]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Then I find it hard to take you seriously. Are you aware that Australia's largest betting syndicate is currently being pursued for $900 million tax? Gambling winnings aren't taxable in Australia unless you're proven to be a professional. Perhaps you'd like to offer your services to them, and prove to the ATO that they've simply been "lucky". http://afr.com/p/national/ato_targets_punters_club_p2kW1NQlZaaKJmkW0XK8MK http://www.smh.com.au/national/mona-founder-in-tax-office-sights-20120606-1zwqx.html http://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/millionaire-gambler-and-art-collector-david-walsh-hits-back-at-the-australian-taxation-office-claim/story-e6frfmd9-1226425030341 And trust me, although these guys are the leviathans there are quite a few medium-sized fish swimming in the punting pools who are VERY successful by most standards.

Thanks for the links, very interesting. Nevertheless, I think some more information on how exactly they bet is in order. From what I've seen so far they do Tote betting, which doesn't sound very professional-friendly, unless there is heavy market manipulation going on. A quick wikipedia search for his partner turns up that bookmakers offer "significant rebates" on his bets. Still, thanks for the links.

[only1woz]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. I think it depends what you consider a "living". There is a guy I know on another forum who started with £3000, and in August, September and October so far has made £5715 profit. Entirely reasonable to assume he could make it to £6500 by the end of the month. £6500 for 3 months? £26000 per year tax free is, for me, a pretty decent living. In fact, it's more than double what I make after tax in my actual job. I'm not sure if the guy works aswell, or not, but it's reasonable to assume that he could be betting for a living, and therefor a "pro sports bettor".

[plinge]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

I think some more information on how exactly they bet is in order. From what I've seen so far they do Tote betting' date=' which doesn't sound very professional-friendly, unless there is heavy market manipulation going on. A quick wikipedia search for his partner turns up that bookmakers offer "significant rebates" on his bets.

Well, also Betfair. Zeljko is reputedly responsible for a significant chunk of its entire turnover in Australia. Anyway, at their level it goes without saying that putting their money on is not going to be straight forward. They didn't have any rebates or such on their way up though, just some capital that had been accrued from card counting, and computer programs that could beat the horse racing market. There is also some truth to this quote by Billy Walters: “Smart guys want me to bet with them. They want me to bet with them directly, because they want to know what I’m betting on. They take the business and adjust their business accordingly. They factor that in and it ends up becoming a positive relationship for them.” http://www.covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=263695 Anyway the point is that these are successful punters too huge to remain anonymous, but if you think there is a total vacuum between these guys and the majority of losing punters, you're living in fantasy land. Personally, I don't have any direct knowledge about, say, the professionals who bet on American sports. But I have no doubt they exist--partly because it is accepted knowledge among serious people who know what they are talking about--and also because, while there may be no one else the size of Billy Walters, he is proof that the odds can be beaten. And for anyone betting, say, tens of thousands rather than the millions a day that he might punt, it's going to be a lot easier. Because some of the techniques he gets up to -- a misdirection bet on the wrong side (the "market manipulation" you alluded to certainly does go on at the highest levels), paying hefty commissions to agents to bet with Asian bookmakers etc. -- must cut into his profits. In Australia, only a tiny percentage of horse racing punters are professionals, but they do exist. Most of them are quietly going about their business making anything from a decent to very comfortable living. You don't have to bet massive stakes to make, say, a couple of hundred grand a year, and while there are occasions when anyone who is winning will be limited by this or that bookmaker, part of being a pro is being shrewd about getting the money on. It's an issue, but it is also often exaggerated. Like I said, a lot depends on how you bet and what you bet on, not just whether you win. I have been betting moderate-pro levels for the first time in my life this year, and I have been too busy to be as subtle as I probably should be about it (I will be treating it more seriously next year), but have only be banned by one bookmaker thus far. Apart from Betfair and the totes, money can be spread around the corporates and the dozens of on-course bookmakers who take bets by phone, and it should hardly come as a surprise that professionals will also use accounts in the names of partners/friends/relatives/commission agents.

[plinge]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

I think it depends what you consider a "living". There is a guy I know on another forum who started with £3000, and in August, September and October so far has made £5715 profit. Entirely reasonable to assume he could make it to £6500 by the end of the month. £6500 for 3 months? £26000 per year tax free is, for me, a pretty decent living. In fact, it's more than double what I make after tax in my actual job. I'm not sure if the guy works aswell, or not, but it's reasonable to assume that he could be betting for a living, and therefor a "pro sports bettor".

If he really knows what he is doing and hasn't just got lucky, he should be able to build up to four or five times that without any great shift in approach. It's actually much easier for punters at these levels than the publicly known figures I've been mentioning to "pink".

[Jase82]

Does anyone else feel that pro punters are like looking for big foot?! The legend is there. People have heard stories. One person knows someone that has spoken to someone that saw one once. But alas, they still remain a legend....

[plinge]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Does anyone else feel that pro punters are like looking for big foot?! The legend is there. People have heard stories. One person knows someone that has spoken to someone that saw one once. But alas' date=' they still remain a legend....[/quote'] Have a look at some of the links I've posted above. The guys big enough to be "legends" soon transcend mythic status because they are simply too big to remain anonymous. There are a good many more pro's out there, but they have good reason to remain anonymous, and they can. It is certainly true that only a tiny percentage of punters are professionals, so yeah, most people aren't going to have any direct knowledge of what really goes on.

[pinkisntwell]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Have a look at some of the links I've posted above. The guys big enough to be "legends" soon transcend mythic status because they are simply too big to remain anonymous. There are a good many more pro's out there' date=' but they have good reason to remain anonymous, and they can. It is certainly true that only a tiny percentage of punters are professionals, so yeah, most people aren't going to have any direct knowledge of what really goes on.[/quote'] But you still haven't explained where they bet. As they are supposedly making billions in profit it goes without saying that they are banned from every non-Tote bookmaker on the planet. Pinnacle does not take bets on Australian Horse Racing as far as I know so that would leave only Betfair. But Australian Horse Racing is not a very high-liquidity market in Betfair. The billions in profit just do not add up.

[plinge]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

But you still haven't explained where they bet. As they are supposedly making billions in profit it goes without saying that they are banned from every non-Tote bookmaker on the planet. Pinnacle does not take bets on Australian Horse Racing as far as I know so that would leave only Betfair. But Australian Horse Racing is not a very high-liquidity market in Betfair. The billions in profit just do not add up.

I have worked with/for a few professional punters, but never anyone betting within a galaxy of what those guys turn over, so I don't know anymore about how they operate than what I've read. They reputedly account for a significant amount of all money put through Betfair and the totes in Australia. I seen no reason to be skeptical about the figure of $900 million that the tax department is chasing. The issue is very controversial here (as the bulk of the tax seems to be being imposed retrospectively) but the figure is not in dispute. It has had a lot more press than just the few links I've posted: whole television current affairs shows have been devoted to it, and politicians have weighed into the issue. But there has been no hint of controversy from any source about the amount involved. As for professionals who make, say, moderate six figures per annum, my experience is that they spread their bets everywhere, including Centrebet, Sportsbet, BetStar, Sportingbet, Luxbet, Tabcorp, Tattsbet, Tom Waterhouse, Betfair and any number of on-course bookmakers who take phone betting. Part of being a pro is having a good understanding of what kind of betting and at what levels each organisation is likely to tolerate. Betting on major race meetings only and avoiding knocking off fixed odds at the top of the market (especially on steamers) will buy you a lot more longevity. It's not unlimited, but that's what friends, family and "bowlers" (commission agents) are for. :cigar

[The Saint]

But you still haven't explained where they bet. As they are supposedly making billions in profit it goes without saying that they are banned from every non-Tote bookmaker on the planet. Pinnacle does not take bets on Australian Horse Racing as far as I know so that would leave only Betfair. But Australian Horse Racing is not a very high-liquidity market in Betfair. The billions in profit just do not add up.

Not got time - I know for a fact this Ozy syndicate exists and works as a mate of mine worked for them last year maintaining all their databases. I tried to get more detail out of him but he is betting illiterate!! I do kno he was paid a fortune!

[pinkisntwell]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

I have worked with/for a few professional punters, but never anyone betting within a galaxy of what those guys turn over, so I don't know anymore about how they operate than what I've read. They reputedly account for a significant amount of all money put through Betfair and the totes in Australia. I seen no reason to be skeptical about the figure of $900 million that the tax department is chasing. The issue is very controversial here (as the bulk of the tax seems to be being imposed retrospectively) but the figure is not in dispute. It has had a lot more press than just the few links I've posted: whole television current affairs shows have been devoted to it, and politicians have weighed into the issue. But there has been no hint of controversy from any source about the amount involved. As for professionals who make, say, moderate six figures per annum, my experience is that they spread their bets everywhere, including Centrebet, Sportsbet, BetStar, Sportingbet, Luxbet, Tabcorp, Tattsbet, Tom Waterhouse, Betfair and any number of on-course bookmakers who take phone betting. Part of being a pro is having a good understanding of what kind of betting and at what levels each organisation is likely to tolerate. Betting on major race meetings only and avoiding knocking off fixed odds at the top of the market (especially on steamers) will buy you a lot more longevity. It's not unlimited, but that's what friends, family and "bowlers" (commission agents) are for. :cigar

So how exactly does it work in Australia? You put your betting profits in your tax return form but they are tax-exempt?

[plinge]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

So how exactly does it work in Australia? You put your betting profits in your tax return form but they are tax-exempt?

You don't have to declare them at all, unless the ATO has made a ruling that you're a professional or you want to put your hand up and confess to it.

[pinkisntwell]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

You don't have to declare them at all' date=' unless the ATO has made a ruling that you're a professional or you want to put your hand up and confess to it.[/quote'] So how did the ATO come to know that they are making all this money? Did they force them to reveal their profits?

[plinge]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

So how did the ATO come to know that they are making all this money? Did they force them to reveal their profits?

I'm no tax expert but I do know the ATO has intimidating power. I doubt they'd have much trouble demanding access to betting and bank accounts and any other financial data they wished to investigate. Also, it's risky game to lie to them; it can be considered tax evasion, and for serious amounts that can mean serious jail sentences.

[notoriouspunter]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. I tried everything the last 6 years to be a pro punter. A pro punter means for me earning enough money a year to have a good life wherever you are living. This year I thought I made it. I succeded and then failed. I failed hard. Tough I now know what it takes to be a pro and I know that it is possible. Courage + Knowledge + Discipline -> then take the right deciscion which is only possible with the above 3. Im a master at the first 2. This earned me a bankroll of good 5figures €. Living from wellfare since 3 years(due to illness) this is huge. What I did is analyzing my league into the tiniest detail. This is the KNOWLEDGE part. You need to understand the sport. What does it mean if this or that system is clashing with another syste? What did the striker do this week after scoring for 3 weeks in succesion? He had a media interview everyday. Does it mean that he will perform even better or will he be unconcentrated? You need to know everything and if I could I would love to know how their **** was and how good they got blown by their girlfriend. These are all factors that will determine the outcome of the next game. The statistics are only hints where you need to dig deeper. Why did it happen? Will it happen again..whats the difference this time..if any? You need to know everything you can possibly know and THEN you need to decide what will matter this time how much! If only something speaks against your selection you need to abstain from the bet even if you researxhed this game for days. This means you can only have a small amount of games that you can bet on. It might be possible that you research for 2 weeks 5 hours a day without taking a single bet. And then your CRITERIA are there and you need the COURAGE to bet 10/10 which might be alot of cash. And then a red card destroys your game. A bad descicion by the ref. Then you need to have the DISCIPLINE to stay calm and research again for hours. think for hours. ARE THE CRITERIA MET? And Im not talking about statistical criteria. - Im talking about the criteria that only you can know. Cause its you who has the edge through the knowledge of the right criteria. I did that for a year and I had the absolute confidence into my criteria(that cant be measured with numbers) Then I got sloppy. Started to spent the money for party. Instead of 70 hours watching and analyzing matches and info I cut it to 2 hours a day. I lost the edge. The criteria was off. I lost the mojo. Love or Money..some truth to it.. Im sure its possible to do this for years. Tough you need to do nothing else. You need to stay true to your CRITERIA ON WHEN TO BET AND WHEN NOT TO BET. There are no lets try it bets.. Its either or. This is how you can make big bucks. Value betting and takingnevery weekend just because 3-8 bets wont work ever...sure if you are ok with 5-10% then its possible.. Oh and stay away from forums. Any fan or sports forum has more knowledge about the game then any sports betting forum. When do you see a real discussion about how a game will play out? The technical aspects of betting are a no brainer. Dreaming of a board where are 3 guys for every team who know everything about that team where you can trust their opinion every week. Well, Im not broke. So I will take another stab at it it next year. The first game I have in sight is is only at the end of january..

[Liscarroll]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Sports betting and stock trading share many things in common. For a start, they both involve taking a speculative position on a specific outcome. Now some people pick stocks based on the business fundamentals. They look at how a company has been trading, where future demand might lie and so on to come up with a view as to whether or not a stock is worth investing in. Others study the technicals. They scan the charts and analyse moving averages, RSI, stochastics, Bollinger Band etc and buy and sell based on the indicators they derive from their charts. Similarly, some of us who bet study the fundamentals of what they're betting on. So if it's football they might consider the strengths and weaknesses of players and teams, study the recent form etc. Then there are those of us who approach it from the technical POV, using ELO ratings, Poisson and other mathematical techniques. Just as there are pro stock traders who make a living from their business, there are amateurs who don't make a penny. Likewise there are pro punters who make a living and plenty of amateurs who make nothing. (I choose the technical approach. I know very little about sport from a fundamentals POV, but I know about mathematics. For me it comes down to using systems to calculate what I believe are true odds and comparing those odds against what's on offer at Betfair to identify value bets.) So I say don't believe anyone who tells you it isn't possible to make a living from betting. Sure it's difficult, but it's not impossible. Bookies close accounts for a reason - it fundamentally *is* possible to beat the bookies. After all, bookies close accounts for a reason: you threaten to be better than they are. On the issue of pro tipsters, which has been raised in this thread, I have no faith in them. I always wonder why they're selling tips in stead of betting on them themselves. I've tried to develop systems based on the selections of horse racing tipsters but they've all ultimately failed. The bottom line is that the strike rate and average winning odds achieved by these tipsters just don't add up to a profit and no amount of clever maths is going to change that.

[lone_ranger19]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Ok what an interesting read, with lots of comments and opinions. I am not new to betting as an occasional guy putting £50 on a weekend, but last October I started putting £500 and £1,000 on punts with a hunch and did very well making £6,000 Profit in one month. I have now accumulated this up to £25k and day by day take it much more seriously. I am lucky enough to have come in to a serious amount of money last year when I sold my company for 7 figures, and I have lots of spare time on my hands at the moment. I am not here to blow smoke up my arse but to learn if it is indeed possible to make a living from sports gambling. Whilst I have spent hours researching new systems, following tipsters, analyzing statistics and the like, I am yet to find something I am 100% happy with. Whilst my fine tuning of the 12 systems I have been using was going well, I stumbled across arbitrage betting one day and thought I have the money and time to do this, and can't lose, studied all the potential pitfalls and started Arb betting this Tuesday, only to get my account at Stan James closed after placing 5 arb bets with them this week. I have been trading with Stan James for 6 weeks staking £14,800 and winning £19,700 and as such they do not want my business. This to me was a big set back, and why I am researching before risking losing my other accounts. So far Bet365, Bet Victor and Sky have taken bets of many thousands and paid some wins of huge amounts without problem, so it never crossed my mind I would have this problem. I will continue to read more posts on here about avoiding closure of accounts, and stopping them from being limited as this is a big problem if I do want to make it as a pro. This is the first time I have joined a forum and I want to share some of my learning and understandings from my short time in improving my own systems. Firstly the low points of my short career. 1) Not using odds comparison services and only placing bets with Sky for the first six weeks, staking an accumulated £140,000 worth of bets, I kick myself now thinking how much more money I would have if I used odds sites from day 1. 2) Matched betting - Google this if you are not sure what this is but again missed out on laying my bets with the exchanges to lock in a profit. 3) Accumulator betting - Betting on multiples just does not work, after the first 6 weeks, when I sat back and thought about how to do this better, I analysed my ROI on these types of bets and I had lost 50% of the stakes on these. Waste of time and money, I now only back singles. 4) Dead certs - Putting thousands on the "favourite's" of say £2,500 on a treble for Scotland to beat Tonga (odds of 1.1), Vyacheslav Senchenko (odds 5) and Man U to beat QPR, and the one that let me down was not the outsider of Senchenko but Tonga beating Scotland. I have lost a lot of money when Man U got beat by Norwich (15k), or when Real Madrid failed to bear Celta Vigo (5k) 5) Don't use casino's I lost £5k in one night, doubling up on Black Jack and Roulette, chasing money. 6) Don't chase your losses - When Reading played Arsenal in the cup and were winning 4-2 I put £1,000 on reading, in ET i then put £3,500 on Arsenal when they went 5-4 up, when the game went 5-5 I put £5k on the game ending in a draw. Arsenal won and I lost £5.5k 7) Don't bet whilst drinking, I lost £9k last week when West Ham were beating Man U 2-1 in the cup and in the 88th minute I took 1.15 odds for the hammers to win and up popped Van Persie! (This is not effective money management) 8) Don't bet in play it is a quick way to rack up your losses. 9) In total my top 10 losses have been a total of £68,000 Ok so what have I learned with such hard lessons from the above, you may wonder. 1) You need nerves of steel, and an apatite for risk, i did not make money selling the business I built up over the last 7 years, and had no problems sleeping on the many occasions when I could have lost everything. 2) You have to have an effective money management strategy. Staking only 1-2% of your available bank each day and I have failed miserably in this regard as you will see above. Possibly self control is my biggest weakness and the one thing I will need to overcome if I am to make it as a full time gambler. 3) Greed - Obviously I have a few quid so winning £20 on a game just does not do it for me and then I get carried away ie. effective money management, I need to control those demons and stop staking such stupid amounts on hunches. 4) Only bet on singles, as with my example of Scotland and favorites lose quite often, I know that for a fact, QPR beating Chelsea the other week also cost me a lot of money. 5) Don't increase your stakes when you lose to recoup your losses stick with a staking plan and not one which means you have to chase your losses. I have seen 11 reds in a casino coming along in a row and what are the odds of that. Loosing streaks do happen and a £50 bet at evens loosing 10 times in a row, would see your stake quickly rise to £25,600 6) Effective money management, have a system(s) and stick to them, don't let greed or alcohol change your mind. 7) Don't just bet on hunches, find statistical evidence for your bet's and also the motivation if the teams & players involved. 8) Keep a track of all your bets winners and losers using Excel or something similar. 9) you need to be very clever and invest a lot of time in doing this, as it is like running a business and to make it as a pro you need the same skills as you would to build up a multi-million pound company without making mistakes and learning from them and I see this as no different. 10) Keep your friends and family up to date with not only your winnings but your losses, and how big these losses were. 11) I don't know how much money you would need to get started but if you started a company tomorrow you could not do it with £50 so if you are serious you will need at least between £20k-£50k to get started which is the same as a small business, but one which the banks would not be willing to invest in. 12) You will not win every bet or every day as you would not if you traded stocks and businesses have good months and bad months as well. Ok so that is my experience in a very short 3 month period, which after reading this thread I wanted to share with you all as I may have had some luck along the way as nothing is certain in this profession and/or in business. I still do not have a solid system, which is proven over a number of years, will I ever find one and will I make it, who knows, but I will have fun trying and will only bet what I can afford to lose, I have my bank and have made my investment, as I have with property, gold, shares, savings and everything else, I will run it like a business and see what happens learning along the way or at least until I am banned from all the bookmakers, but that is another story altogether. Who knows one day i may write a book to show that it is possible or it is not possible, like Moggis, LOL Ps. Google > for some excellent advice on doing this for a living, it has some great information which makes a huge amount of sense to me. I am also not here to debate or prove anything to anyone, just wanted to share my very limited experiences and failings of a short career in betting.

[pinkisntwell]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Whilst my fine tuning of the 12 systems I have been using was going well, I stumbled across arbitrage betting one day and thought I have the money and time to do this, and can't lose, studied all the potential pitfalls and started Arb betting this Tuesday, only to get my account at Stan James closed after placing 5 arb bets with them this week. I have been trading with Stan James for 6 weeks staking £14,800 and winning £19,700 and as such they do not want my business. This to me was a big set back, and why I am researching before risking losing my other accounts. So far Bet365, Bet Victor and Sky have taken bets of many thousands and paid some wins of huge amounts without problem, so it never crossed my mind I would have this problem.

Getting limited is the number one problem with gambling for a living. If it "didn't cross your mind" then evidently you are a light year away from being a pro gambler (assuming such a beast exists).

Ps. Google > for some excellent advice on doing this for a living, it has some great information which makes a huge amount of sense to me.

Most of the information there makes sense, some of it doesn't (e.g. the suggestion to always bet flat stakes), but in any case you should still keep in mind that that website is nothing more than a tipping service, and one that consistently loses money. People have tracked their bets and they are not winning anything near to what they claim they are winning. Steer well clear.

[lone_ranger19]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. When I googled proffesional gambler I only scanned the pages and did not realise they offered tips or how much these tips may lose. I have been using tips online at ****, EasyOdds and SelectaBet and offline buying the Racing Post, Racing and Football Outlook and Racing plus, and with mixed success on sports betting. I am looking at tipster perfomrmance websites which show what longtime ROI these people acheive as most do not publish this with their tips. Out of interest why would you not back level stakes? I have not bet level stakes in the past but have had bad money management betting 25-30% of my bank on one bet and then loosing and then having to bet the same again to win it back. My worry long term is "money management" and would level stakes not help me with this? What other method would you suggest?

[Nobber]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. This is my experience of betting 'professionally'. After many years of working for the same Company - rising to a senior grade over time - I have always bet regularly on Horses (and Rugby plus playing Three Card Brag and, more recently, Poker) with increasingly larger stakes as my pay increased and my outgoings, mortgage, kids etc. declined. I always thought that, come retirement, I would be able to supplement my pension by winning a few quid each month by gambling, which I loved, and was confident that, with sufficient time and money, I could do so. Be careful what you wish for, it may come true. Due to a horrific car accident I got my wish to retire early with an enhanced pension, lump sum and considerable insurance damages...I was minted. As I was unable to walk/move from the waist down I also had all the time in the world to read about form, systems, methods, studies, etc., on winning money regularly by gambling - lucky really, as there was not a lot else I could do and it passed the time. Eventually, after months and months in hospital I got to go home and put my plan into action. I had deduced that the only way to make money regularly was by betting Greyhound Trap numbers. No form reading, tips, trainer records, no dodgy jockeys or tactics, the name/size/colour/weight etc., of the dog - none of this mattered. The only thing that mattered was that, after a bit of 'historical' research by me, a certain Trap number won on a certain day at a certain meeting and I would progressively bet that Trap No. until it won, staking each time depending on price, enough to make a daily profit. Now there are numerous 'Gurus' out there who will tell you that progressive betting is a certain way to the Workhouse...and they may be right, but only if you do not have a fully researched 'system' allied to a strictly formulated staking strategy plus a (very) large betting bank. I'm not going to argue about it, I'm just telling you what worked for me. I had resolved to do all my betting on Betfair. This was because (a) there's no Bookie to knock you back for winning too much/too often (b) you can always get a lumpy bet on by taking the BSP price © the prices offered are usually much better than the official SP (d) no cancellations due to adverse weather so betting every day and, (e) as the major bookmakers own/control the BAGs tracks, they control the 'off' times if/when they coincide with a horse race giving you the extra time (if needed) to adjust your stake to a dynamic betting market. The 5% deduction was a 'pain' but I reasoned that it was a small price to pay for all the advantages, above. How wrong was I as it turned out !!! I started off with a £10K bank aiming to win £20 per day, 7 days a week, 51 weeks of the year...you do the sums. After three consecutive winning months my bank had grown to £34K and my daily target had increased to £30 - anyone ever noticed that when you don't need the money you win, but when you've got your last £10 on a 'sure thing' the fecker contrives to lose ? I was back and fore to Hospital over the next few months so didn't do any betting although I kept up my record keeping of the various winning trap numbers. I have been winning money consistently, every day with one single exception (lost over £2.8K that day) for the past 18 months. The only problems I have had, excepting the one (that's one) losing day are: (a) in the beginning I used to leave it as late as possible before getting my bet on (you'll see why later on) and occasionally left it too late and couldn't get the bet on in time. Sometimes it worked for me, the dog lost, and sometimes it worked against me, the dog won thus ruining the day's betting at that particular meeting. But it is totally unprofessional and rarely, very rarely happens now - but it still does. (b) you have no control over the dog/trap's SP. You have to bet at BSP because of the lack of liquidity on the available 'best' price showing, but can get up to £3K (my largest single bet) on at BSP. This, again, can work for and against you. I've had £65 @ BSP on at a trap no. whose price was showing at 9.82 just before the 'off' but which won at BSP 24.01 making me a massive 'overprofit' on the day. Alternatively, I've calculated that I needed £720 @ the 4.0 showing, put the bet on only to see the price contract from 4.0 to 2.20 with no time left for me to 'up' my stake to account for the new price. The fecking dog won (thus also negating my 'system' for that meeting) resulting in a painful loss even though I 'won' This bit of bad luck also resulted in the first bet, at the next meeting, being over £500 instead of the usual £10 or £20. So, to those people who say it's impossible to win money regularly/consistently, I say you're wrong - because I'm doing it. In addition, to those who think or believe this is a work of fiction, I've made it up, it's all bollocks etc., etc. all I can say is, it's the truth, evertyhing I've written is true and if you don't believe it...you can kiss my boney arse, because I won't feel it. Good luck. Nobber.

[lone_ranger19]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living. Thanks for sharing your story Nobber, I hope other people will share theirs too, as this is a much more constructive way for people to learn if indeed there is any reality to sports betting for a living. I also hope no one attempts to criticise anything we say on here as it is just a matter of our oppinion and for such reasons I welcome any positive feedback and help and similar stories other members will share as it is more than appreciated to help us improve our systems, and beat the bookies.

[leony]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

So I say don't believe anyone who tells you it isn't possible to make a living from betting. Sure it's difficult, but it's not impossible. Bookies close accounts for a reason - it fundamentally *is* possible to beat the bookies. After all, bookies close accounts for a reason: you threaten to be better than they are. On the issue of pro tipsters, which has been raised in this thread, I have no faith in them. I always wonder why they're selling tips in stead of betting on them themselves.

I think you've answered the "Why they're selling tips" question with the "Bookies close accounts for a reason" statement. If I were good enough I'd certainly sell my bets instead of betting them myself. Seems like a better way of earning money rather than placing the bets myself.

[pinkisntwell]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

When I googled proffesional gambler I only scanned the pages and did not realise they offered tips or how much these tips may lose. I have been using tips online at ****, EasyOdds and SelectaBet and offline buying the Racing Post, Racing and Football Outlook and Racing plus, and with mixed success on sports betting. I am looking at tipster perfomrmance websites which show what longtime ROI these people acheive as most do not publish this with their tips. Out of interest why would you not back level stakes? I have not bet level stakes in the past but have had bad money management betting 25-30% of my bank on one bet and then loosing and then having to bet the same again to win it back. My worry long term is "money management" and would level stakes not help me with this? What other method would you suggest?

The lower the odds, the higher the stakes.

[lone_ranger19]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

The lower the odds' date=' the higher the stakes.[/quote'] Thanks, so should you have a level return plan instead?

[pinkisntwell]

Re: The reality of sports betting/trading for a living.

Thanks' date=' so should you have a level return plan instead?[/quote'] Yes, this way you make better use of your bankroll.