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Re: May06-13

Anyone know any updates on the Dolgo - A-A & Llodra - Seppi matches?? Any site i go into has them both still in the 2nd set thought maybe they were rained off but just saw a blue sky in the Raonic match so guess not??
Useless waste of space Llodra lost 7-5 6-4 to Seppi. Not sure about Dolgo-Andujar.
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Re: May06-13

Dolgopolov - Andujar Small stake here, odds are dropping hard and i'm not really happy with this odd. A little bit higher and i staking one unit more. Dolgopolov had impressive me the first weeks on clay this season. Playing some good tennis and showing some good perfomance. He had take some rest for this tournament and i think this new clay will be better for him. It will be a little bit faster. Andujar is a really good clay player, but he had a very busy last weeks. Playing a lot of matches and it don't look good at all. He must be playing good here tot win from this youngster. H2H will be 1-1. Two matches on clay in Italy in 2009 and both win in straight sets. 1/10 Dolgopolov -2.5 games @ 1.71 Pinnacle Raonic - Nalbaldian I will be really and i think Raonic win this match today. Only all spots are dropped to low and i don't see value in de ML, HCP or over/under. I think Raonic his service will be really difficult for Nalbaldian on this clay. It will be faster and i think he will be some problems with that service. Raonic showing some good perfomance the last weeks in the rally's and he can dominating this with his good forehand. Nalbaldian can't impressive me the last week in Belgrade. 2 wins against Bedene and Souza but it was not good and fine to see that. I think this pick have really value as the own one in this match. 2/10 Raonic -1.5 set @ 2.23 Pinnacle Bellucci - Gasquet Bookmakers are really crazy with this odd ?!?!? One off the biggest stakings here. This both players playing 2 matches last year against eachother and both wons by Gasquet. On Roland Garros he won 3-1 and in Montreal on hardcourt he won in straight sets. I don't know on what facts they will be based this odds. Bellucci had playing one good match the last weeks and that was against Ferrer. The next match he will be going down against Haase. Gasquet showing some good perfomance last week in Estoril. Okay, he will be losing the final against Del Potro but he had some great wins against Ramos and Lorenzi (61 61). Maybe he will be a little bit tired, but he will be playing late today and had extra day to rest. 4/10 Gasquet ML @ 1.68 Pinnacle
Tomic who was posted yesterday was the only loss for today.
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Re: May06-13 Isner - Cilic First pick for tomorrow. Isner is back from some weeks of rest. He will be focused on the bigger tournaments that are coming, starting with this. I think the blue clay will be a good factor for him. Also he had showing some good perfomance on the red clay early this year. His service will be a problem for many players and i think also for Cilic. Cilic, i'm not a big fan from him. Will be not continue enough to winning tournaments. But he playing well the last weeks. Showing some good perfomance. But mentally he is not good enough and i think that will be a great factor in this match if Isner will produce some good first service %%. Both players had one meeting in the history. Cilic beat Isner on the Australian Open in 2012 with 9-7 in the 5th set. But Isner will be playing better and better after this match. 2/10 Isner ML @ 1.73 Sportingbet

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Re: May06-13

Granollers to beat Berlocq @1.76(Unibet) Odds on this one totally went south over the last night. It's not this though that makes me sure about a spanish win here. Berlocq had amazing results on clay over the last year, some really good results, but right now his fitness is in question. He has not played for a while now and also Marcel Granollers is in home and has more experience in Masters series matches like this one. The spaniard played a challenger in Tunis last week that I think was some kind of preparation for Madrid. Granollers must be winning this. Nalbandian to beat Raonic @2.65(Unibet) Everybody blindly on Raonic and I can understand why... but come on. Nalbandian won in Madrid when it was played indoors, I guess he likes the venue and if anybody, he's one of the few who has a chance to return the canadian's bombastic serves. That's what I think at least and I would take a guess that Nalbandian did not win Belgrade with the intention to be better prepared for Madrid. So yeah, Nalbandian for me. Bellucci to beat Gasquet @2.28(Unibet) Now this I think is the play of the day. Gasquet is coming from a final in Estoril and it took some off him. Bellucci surely has been preparing for this event as you probably know what he did here last year. The brazilian beat Andujar, Murray, Berdych and was so close to upset Djokovic as well ! Gasquet himself lost to Gimeno-Traver. I think the odds here are a joke and anything different than a Bellucci victory will surprise me. Berdych-Anderson over 21.5 @2.00(Unibet) Two big servers in this one. We all know about their serving capacities and I hardly see many breaks here. Good luck. ;)
Very ugly. I am sorry.
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Re: May06-13 Like a few others, i've had a bit of a nightmare start to the week on my return to the tennis scene. Will stick with it though as I want to get some wins and confidence back before the French Open starts. I have already taken another for tomorrow as I'm not sure the line will stick around for long. May be back with some others later; Sam Stosur vs Petra Cetkovska Over 19.5 games in the match 1.91 at Pinnacle Sports (4 / 10 units) Sam was up to her usual tricks against McHale on Monday night in her second round match up. She gave the young American a 4 game head start in the first set which she happily took and then almost allowed her back into second set after she herself had taken a big lead, and she was generally all over the place with her serve and shots for a lot of the game. This comes on the back of another tight 3 setting against Petra Martic in the opening round. As usual for Stosur she is a fighter and is normally fit enough to see out three setters, but she doesn’t help herself by getting into these predicaments to start with. Her matches in Madrid so far are pretty much a reflection of all the positive and negative things about her game. Coming up against Cetkovska who has looked comfortable here so far I can see another edgy game for Stosur so this low game line looks inviting. If Stosur does present her opponent any opportunities then she should be confident enough to try and take them. She played decently in Estoril last week, losing in three to eventual winner Kanepi and has seen of Zvonereva and caly court specialist Lourdes Lino simply enough. Against Zvonerva she was particularly impressive with her all round game and didn’t even concede a break point to her more illustrious opponent. The +5.5 line is currently hovering at just under 1.70 if its gets much higher then i'll be thinking about taking that as well. :hope

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Re: May06-13 Dolgopolov - Seppi Dolgopolov showing some good perfomance today. Beating in straight sets Andujar and covering my -2.5 games handicap. Also this player showing some good perfomance on clay the last weeks. Seppi won Belgrade last weeks and playing also a match here in Madrid. I think this will be to busy for him. He have one round in the pocket now and i think Dolgopolov with his great play in the rally's will be to much for him. 1/10 Dolgopolov -2 games @ 1.68 Pinnacle

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Re: May06-13

ATP Madrid - Wawrinka to beat Rochus 2-0 @ 8/13 (Stan James:3pts) ATP Madrid - Almagro vs Giraldo OVER 20.5 games @ 8/11 (Bwin:4pts)
WIN WIN ATP Madrid - Federer vs Raonic OVER 21.5 games @ 8/11 (Stan James:3pts) Federer playing his first match since Miami 6 weeks ago, now starting in Madrid on blue clay, I sense a tricky one for the great man here. But Raonic will have problems breaking Fed too often I think, if at all. Milos is however playing at a high level right now, semi finals in Barcelona which seemed unlikely going into the event as he lost to grinder Montanes the week before. But he was just finding his rhythm on the surface and then took out the likes of Almagro, Murray in Barcelona before falling to Ferrer in the semi's in a tight match 7-6 7-6. First match in Madrid today he took Nalbandian out in straight sets, serving bombs with 16 aces and breaking twice. Convincing win. Can see at least one tie-break, maybe a Fed win in 2 or 3.
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Re: May06-13 IAG, When was the last time you lost a tennis bet, February? Good stuff man :notworthy Taking one in the Rio Quente Challenger tomorrow........ Bruno Sant'anna to beat Marcelo Demoliner @ 6/4 BET 365 Strength (5/10) This young kid Sant'anna is starting to make a bit of a breakthrough this year. He's put in very respectable performances against the likes of Veic and Kavcic, and he made a statement two days ago putting out Ivo Minar in the first round. No doubt Minar tanked the last set to an extent but still nevertheless it adds to the overall impression that the 18 year old is capable of hanging with the cream of the challenger tour already. He's up against Demoliner tomorrow ( as well as the potential after the lord mayors show syndrome that often afflicts young kids after a big win), a player who hasn't really improved at all in the last few years. He's been in dreadful form the last couple of months, losing to anyone half decent it seems, and I think if Sant'anna can come in with the same level he's showed against Minar (12 aces in that match as well), then he stands a very good chance to beat a very mediocre Demoliner and progress further into the tournament. :hope

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Re: May06-13 Safarova +4.5 games to beat Maria Sharapova @1.83 at Bet365, Madrid WTA, Clay (On Court May 10 2012 09:00 GMT) These 2 girls are capable of doing wonders on their own service games. Strong service, but lack in return because they're also very aggressive against serve. Although betting over 19.5 games is also an option, I'll stick with Safarova +4.5 games because she turned out to be the winner when she played Sharapova at this tournament 2 years ago. Update: Match is cancelled. Safarova forfeits the match due to illness. Quick win by Sharapova.

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Re: May06-13 Totally agree with IamGooners thoughts on the Federer game. Milos Raonic vs Roger Federer Over 21.5 games in the match 1.73 at Stan James (3 / 10 units) Was really hoping for a larger + handicap on Raonic than whats being offered here, but will happily take this overs line instead. Having taken 6 weeks away from the game, I think the last thing Federer would have wanted on his return to clay is this match against an in form Raonic, a man who pushed him hard over a 3 set match in Indian Wells back in March. For Federer this event has in the past served him well, but I do have a feeling that he might struggle here. As stated it’s his first clay court tournament this year having skipped Monte Carlo and add in the issues with the blue clay playing a bit differently then it may take him a while to get up to speed. With the grand slams now becoming the biggest focus for Federer, I can see him not wanting to overdo things here and risk injury’s etc so we are unlikely to see his A game and if that’s the case than Raonic should be able to handle him reasonably well. The Canadian is in great form and having beaten Murray in Barcelona, I’m sure he see’s Federer as his next big scalp. His serve is always difficult to get at as showcased again today with 16 aces, 0 break points against and 100% of first serve points won. We know that Federer has an excellent return of serve but he if isn’t quite on his A game then even he will struggle to get at Raonic service games. It should therefore be a tight match, probably decided by a tie break or two, as the match at Indian Wells was. :hope

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Re: May06-13

Safarova +4.5 games to beat Maria Sharapova @1.83 at Bet365, Madrid WTA, Clay (On Court May 10 2012 09:00 GMT) These 2 girls are capable of doing wonders on their own service games. Strong service, but lack in return because they're also very aggressive against serve. Although betting over 19.5 games is also an option, I'll stick with Safarova +4.5 games because she turned out to be the winner when she played Sharapova at this tournament 2 years ago.
Not looked at the odds in depth for this game yet, but when they opened last night Safarova was priced at a little bit over 4's, which is def a bit high in my eyes. Sharapova was really unconvincing yesterday vs Zakopolava and if the latter was a bit more aggressive and confident in attacking Sharapova particularly in the second set she could have made things much more uncomfortable than they were. As you say Safarova should offer more of an imposing attacking threat. I'm not sure whether it was the early start , lack of atmosphere or the clay that was causing Maria such problems, but she's going to have the same conditions again tomorrow morning. Both the +4.5 and over 19.5 are worth considering.
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Re: May06-13 Raonic might still be a bit of value at 3.50 at places, one has to wonder what Federer's attitude will be on this surface. Djokovic hated it yesterday, while Raonic seemed fairly comfortable in his victory over Nalbandian. Safarova also has what it takes to get past Sharapova and I would not be afraid of backing her above 4.00 (still can get that). Over five on Granollers also looks a bit much to me considering Almagro had a lot of negative comments about the surface and the odds on Youzhny also look ridiculous at over six.

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Re: May06-13 Federer to beat Raonic 2-0 @1.90 at Boylesports, Madrid ATP, Clay, 2nd round (On Court May 9 2012 18:30 GMT) Raonic is probably feeling nervous already knowing he has not much chance to beat the someone as tough as the Federer. Although Raonic managed to beat a few good players prior to this match, he was lucky because his opponents quickly succumbed to the big serve and failed to capitalize the important points. Federer is a more experienced player. He knows his ways around players like these having played so many of them in the past. Federer's way of playing is particularly frustrating to Raonic thanks to Raonic's limited movement. It won't be a beating, but a break in every set is not much to ask for as Federer always plays brilliantly in his comebacks. Update: lost. I didn't watch the match because I was busy sleeping. But according to the stats, Raonic seemed to dominate the match. Silly me.

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Re: May06-13

Yulia Putintseva to beat Kristina Mladenovic. 1.83 @ Paddy Power :) Boris Pashanski 2-0 against Gianluigi Quinzi. 8/13 @ Bet365 :)
Melinda Czink to beat Urszula Radwanska. 3/4 @ BetVictor Czink is a decent player on the clay, having won a couple of ITF titles on the surface last year, and she was the only player who managed to take a set off the in-form Errani in Budapest last week. She had a good win in the first round here against the second seed and talented youngster Timea Babos, and will be confident of progressing further in this tournament. Urszula Radwanska is no mug, but most of her better matches have come off the clay. She has never progressed beyond the quarter-final stage of a clay court tournament, even at ITF level, and she has struggled for wins this season, suggesting her confidence levels are relatively low. Although Czink can be a little unpredictable, she should have enough to see off the younger Radwanska sister and book her place in the quarter-finals in Cagnes-Sur-Mer. Horacio Zeballos 2-0 against Dudi Sela. 6/5 @ Bet365 Zeballos is a proper clay court player, who struggles off his favoured surface. He has played all bar one of his matches on clay this year, albeit with mixed results. A run to the final in Barranquilla was the highlight, and he also took a set off John Isner in Houston, before succumbing to a deciding set defeat. He came past Marsel Ilhan in the first round without too many problems and will be hoping for a good run in Prague. Dudi Sela is very much the opposite and is not at all comfortable on the clay. He struggled past the local wildcard, Jan Blecha, in the first round and this is only his fourth tournament on clay in the past two years. His game is not at all suited to this surface, and he will be counting down the days until he can return to his favoured hard and grass courts. This should be a fairly routine win for Zeballos on his favoured surface and the odds on him winning in straight sets are worth a bet.
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Re: May06-13 Stepanek +5.5 games to beat Ferrer @2.10 at PaddyPower, Madrid ATP, 2nd round (On Court May 9 2012 11:05 GMT) This is for those who are afraid of getting Stepanek @10.0, myself included. Stepanek isn't the kind of guy that Ferrer can crush. He's patient, he's consistent, he's tricky with a bonus of a good serve. Stepanek already proved himself after a win over Tomic yesterday that he will be an obstacle to those who don't adapt well with the new condition in Madrid, and Ferrer is likely to be one of them. Update: won. Ferrer won 76 62. Ferrer had the control of the entire match. Stepanek couldn't match the performance Ferrer provided. Also there's a sign of shoulder injury for Stepanek.

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Load of pish from me yesterday. A few winners but hurt by Djokovic and Ramos. I'm on a double of Gasquet and Tipsarevic. Pays 1.80. It'll probably lose as I'm in poor form but that's what I fancy. Mainly because Troicki is wretched on clay and Tipsy is a step up from Ramos for Delbonis. Fine calls again IAG.

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Re: May06-13 Andreev +1.5 over Monfils @1.90(Unibet) Monfils has just played his first match on clay yesterday. He was kind of patchy against Kohlschreiber I would say as he was easily getting down breaks, but in the end capitalized of the german's chokes. Andreev qualified here quite easily and beat the home favourite Ferrero. I watched the match against JCF and I can say that Andreev was unbreakable, had some very sharp shots in the important moments. With that said, I think he's capable of taking a set off Monfils ... and why not even more ? We'll see I guess. Dolgopolov to beat Seppi @1.45(Unibet) Expectably the odds are dropping fast here. As it's been said already, Seppi won Belgrade and just won a match here yesterday, so I think him winning here is not that probable. Dolgopolov is surely more fresh, started with a solid first round win against the local fav Andujar and he even beat Seppi here very comfortably 2 years ago. The dog must be winning this. Delbonis +1.5 over Tipsarevic @2.00(Unibet) The serbian might prove that wrong, but for some reason I think Delbonis is taking a set. He already competed on the surface, the win against Ramos was pretty impressive and I am hoping he comes out with some of the same stuff against Tipsarevic.

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Re: May06-13 Challenger Athens - Marinko Matosevic - Fabrice Martin OVER 20.5 GAMES @ 10/11 BET 365 Strength (6/10) - :ok Bruno Sant'anna to beat Marcelo Demoliner @ 6/4 BET 365 Strength (5/10) - :ok Fancy Wawrinka to give Djokovic a good game tomorrow. Novak seems to be in sulk and looking for a way out and Stan is playing some great stuff.

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Re: May06-13

Andreev +1.5 over Monfils @1.90(Unibet) Monfils has just played his first match on clay yesterday. He was kind of patchy against Kohlschreiber I would say as he was easily getting down breaks, but in the end capitalized of the german's chokes. Andreev qualified here quite easily and beat the home favourite Ferrero. I watched the match against JCF and I can say that Andreev was unbreakable, had some very sharp shots in the important moments. With that said, I think he's capable of taking a set off Monfils ... and why not even more ? We'll see I guess. Dolgopolov to beat Seppi @1.45(Unibet) Expectably the odds are dropping fast here. As it's been said already, Seppi won Belgrade and just won a match here yesterday, so I think him winning here is not that probable. Dolgopolov is surely more fresh, started with a solid first round win against the local fav Andujar and he even beat Seppi here very comfortably 2 years ago. The dog must be winning this. Delbonis +1.5 over Tipsarevic @2.00(Unibet) The serbian might prove that wrong, but for some reason I think Delbonis is taking a set. He already competed on the surface, the win against Ramos was pretty impressive and I am hoping he comes out with some of the same stuff against Tipsarevic.
Better than yesterday.
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Re: May06-13 Double of Gasquet and Tipsarevic came in yesterday to end a poor run. Going for this bet to kick things off. - Rafael Nadal -6.5 games v Fernando Verdasco (ATP Madrid Masters 1000 series) @ 1.833 with panbet These two met a matter of weeks ago in the Barcelona semi-final and Nadal routed poor Fernando 6-0 6-4. That outcome was no surprise. Nadal leads the H2H 13-0 and has never lost a set to his compatriot on the clay. I don't see any real reason to suspect a different outcome in this match. Nadal took to the blue tiriac surface well against Davydenko with a 6-2 6-2 win against a man who has caused him problems in the past. Verdasco laboured a bit against Falla, really struggling to shrug off the Colombian. He was on court for two hours and that is bound to take its toll when Rafa is up next. Why does Verdasco toil so much against Nadal? Well, apart from the obvious gap in quality, a 13-0 record creates mental demons for Nando. If he falls behind his head will dip - it's only natural. I just don't see enough in Verdasco's game to raise his level. Back in 2009, when Verdasco was at his best, he almost beat Nadal but couldn't. Even last year, an unfit Nadal beat him in an epic on the hard courts. Of course, Rafa doesn't need to cover the line here. But he looks in fine fettle, serving well and constantly pressuring on return. Verdasco, for me, can't turn the tables in this one, and I'm expecting another routine win for Nadal here. Confidence level: 8/10 :hope

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Re: May06-13

Melinda Czink to beat Urszula Radwanska. 3/4 @ BetVictor :D Horacio Zeballos 2-0 against Dudi Sela. 6/5 @ Bet365 :D
A good week so far, but nothing really appeals today. Vaguely interested in Wawrinka on the handicap against Djokovic, but was hoping for a slightly bigger price, so nothing for me today...
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Re: May06-13 Going down the Challenger route with this selection. - Simone Bolelli to beat Simon Greul (ATP Rome 2 Challenger) x Martin Klizan to beat Dusan Lojda (ATP Prague Challenger) @ 1.823 with panbet It could be perceived as a risky strategy, teaming up two shorties in Challenger events, but hear me out on this one as I reckon it's got a decent chance. Bolelli, for me, is a classier player than Greul. The Italian is really a top 70 player on ability but he's been let down by poor choices in his career. His move away from Italy to Monte Carlo somewhat distracted him as he was lured into the party atmosphere. His marriage to an admittedly gorgeous but troublemaking lingerie model meant that his tennis form went downhill rapidly and only now is he starting to get back on track. With the Rome Masters coming up next week, he'll be looking to find some form ahead of that. He'll be granted a wildcard and he'll be looking to go in with wins behind him. He's got a good chance against Greul, who he's beaten three times before on clay. He's got more weapons than the German, who is a sparrer. Could be a close set somewhere but I'd fancy the Italian on home soil to get the job done. As for Klizan, this man has been Mr Challenger this year. He's made the top 100 purely by being on the premises of almost all the Challengers this year. He plays a decent enough player in Lojda but Klizan won their only meeting, in the Casablanca Challenger, on clay this year. One of Klizan's main strength is his serve and the fact he's a lefty. Looking at Lojda's record, he's 1/9 win record against lefties, so he evidently struggles with this type of player. Lojda is on home soil, but Klizan's been consistent this year, is a better player and has the form this year over the Czech. I'm more than happy to double him up with Bolelli. Confidence: 6/10 :hope

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Re: May06-13 Think this will be my final selection for today. - Marin Cilic +4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro (ATP Madrid Masters 1000 series) @ 1.87 with panbet This has the potential to be a very, very good match, and I feel the bookies are underestimating Cilic a little bit here. Cilic seems to be getting back to his best after 2011 was blighted by injury. His win over big Isner yesterday was huge because it showed that he can deal with top 10 players on this surface. He served well and played the clutch moments in the tie-break with aplomb and that will serve him well against Delpo. The biggest thing that goes against Cilic is that he was spanked by the Argentine on Davis Cup duty a month or so ago. That was on clay but it was also in Buenos Aires, where Del Potro had a massive advantage with home support. It was also on red clay, which Cilic isn't at his best on. It's the surface that I think could make the most difference here. The blue clay is quicker and at altitude it can play like a hard court. Cilic has run Delpo close and beaten him twice on a hard court before and the conditions here certainly play in his favour. The quicker the court, the more problems he'll pose the Argentine. His coach, Bob Brett, predicted big things from Cilic this year, and I think we're starting to see that come to the table now. Delpo wasn't entirely convincing against Youzhny yesterday and a similar sort of match against an in-form Cilic would be no surprise. Confidence: 7/10 :hope

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Re: May06-13

Think this will be my final selection for today. - Marin Cilic +4.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro (ATP Madrid Masters 1000 series) @ 1.87 with panbet This has the potential to be a very, very good match, and I feel the bookies are underestimating Cilic a little bit here. Cilic seems to be getting back to his best after 2011 was blighted by injury. His win over big Isner yesterday was huge because it showed that he can deal with top 10 players on this surface. He served well and played the clutch moments in the tie-break with aplomb and that will serve him well against Delpo. The biggest thing that goes against Cilic is that he was spanked by the Argentine on Davis Cup duty a month or so ago. That was on clay but it was also in Buenos Aires, where Del Potro had a massive advantage with home support. It was also on red clay, which Cilic isn't at his best on. It's the surface that I think could make the most difference here. The blue clay is quicker and at altitude it can play like a hard court. Cilic has run Delpo close and beaten him twice on a hard court before and the conditions here certainly play in his favour. The quicker the court, the more problems he'll pose the Argentine. His coach, Bob Brett, predicted big things from Cilic this year, and I think we're starting to see that come to the table now. Delpo wasn't entirely convincing against Youzhny yesterday and a similar sort of match against an in-form Cilic would be no surprise. Confidence: 7/10 :hope
Cilic's win against Isner yesterday was mandatory, because Big John played as I probably would if I stood on the court instead of him. It was total disaster, John deliberately leaving balls that landed more than 1 m away from him to their fate. No return, huge unforceds. Only his serve kept him in the match, but this has to fail in the tie-breaks. And it failed. I would not read much from Cilic's victory over Isner.clear.gif
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Re: May06-13

Cilic's win against Isner yesterday was mandatory, because Big John played as I probably would if I stood on the court instead of him. It was total disaster, John deliberately leaving balls that landed more than 1 m away from him to their fate. No return, huge unforceds. Only his serve kept him in the match, but this has to fail in the tie-breaks. And it failed. I would not read much from Cilic's victory over Isner.clear.gif
Wish I'd have read that 30 mins ago
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