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1000 Guineas - May 6th.


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1000 Guineas Discourse 1.25pt win - 8/1 (Paddy Power) On bare form, I don't think Discourse should be 8/1 and Maybe at 7/4. She had fives races as a 2yo and backing a filly to retain form in a race like this at such a short price is dangerous. If she goes below 2.5 on the day I'll be a layer. Discourse overturned Gamilati on her debut when the latter was expected to win, and then won in taking fashion at Newmarket, drawing well clear and looking like the longer trip would play into her hands. I have doubts over Lyric of Light's form and you always got the impression throughout last season that Discourse was preferred. She could easily start around the 5/1 mark on the day.

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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th.

1000 Guineas Discourse 1.25pt win - 8/1 (Paddy Power) On bare form, I don't think Discourse should be 8/1 and Maybe at 7/4. She had fives races as a 2yo and backing a filly to retain form in a race like this at such a short price is dangerous. If she goes below 2.5 on the day I'll be a layer. Discourse overturned Gamilati on her debut when the latter was expected to win, and then won in taking fashion at Newmarket, drawing well clear and looking like the longer trip would play into her hands. I have doubts over Lyric of Light's form and you always got the impression throughout last season that Discourse was preferred. She could easily start around the 5/1 mark on the day.
i have to say i fully agree with this .........i think maybe is too short for such a competitive race against this standard of opposition .......i think either discourse or lyric of light will go close and its hard to separate the 2 but i think discourses run showed that he possesses speed aplenty and is proven on course 84........good as opposed to lyric of lights 80 good firm ......one of the most open 1000 guineas for while with many horses capable of stepping up but i like the look of a place bet at 3.4 on discourse as it doesnt tie me to a win in such an open race and i think it will be difficult to keep him out the frame ....... discourse 10pts place 3.4 betfair
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  • 2 weeks later...

Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. already backed discourse for this but ground a worry for that one as he would prefer top of the ground .....times today are suggesting the track is riding around -0.6 /furlong which is just slightly on the soft side of soft (sft/heavy) which actually makes camelots performance today all the better and so it was no surprise to see french fifteen in the frame on his favoured soft ground ......maybe acts on soft ground and given that ones superiority overall ...will be very difficult to beat tomorrow now but at 6/4 is just too short to back against so many good horses .........one horse i have been toying with backing for some time is GRAY PEARL ........i think this horse is vastly overpriced ......showed a lot of potential last year when recording an 82 on the clock on only her 2nd run .......trainer has stated that horse has wintered well and he reckons the horse might actually relish the softer ground as she has onlybeen on good .....if the horse has strengthened up and handles the ground its not beyond realms that she could run a big race and yet is available at 60.0 on betfair with 12.0 for a place .......just looks much too big and i think warrants serious respect .......all hinges on whether the horse can handle soft ...... gray pearl 5pts win at 60.0 betfair 5pts place 12.0

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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. They seem to think a lot of The Fugue but it might be more of an Oaks type and anyway I'm not keen on backing once raced horses going from maiden class to group 1 class but I'll be keeping a keen eye on it.

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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. my thoughts Year after year the winner of the Fillies’ Mile tends to be a strong fancy for the following seasons 1000 Guineas but year after year they are beaten. In fact, Bosra Sham was the last filly to record the big race double in 1995/96 and prior to that it had been another of the truly great fillies Oh So Sharp in 1984/85. Last year’s race went the way of Lyric Of Light and so the omens don’t look good. Eleven years separated the 1989 winner Musical Bliss and the 2000 winner Lahan who had both won the previous season’s Group 2 Rockfel Stakes, run here at Newmarket over 7f at the October meeting. However, in more recent seasons both Finsceal Beo and Speciosa achieved that very same feat suggesting that the form of the race needs close scrutiny. Gray Pearl and Sunday Times, who finished 3rd and 5th respectively, represent that race on Sunday. Not since Sayyedati in 1993 had a winner of the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes gone on to taste success in the 1000 Guineas the following season. However, just recently both Natagora and Special Duty have added to that tally and so connections of last year’s winner of that race Lightening Pearl and the runner-up Sunday Times will both be hoping their fillies can build on this recent run of good form. Havant’s 1000 Guineas performance last season confirmed that the form of the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes has been one to avoid when searching for the winner of the 1000 Guineas so Nayarra who finished 3rd in that race does have a point to prove. Over in Ireland the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes generally attracts a field of classy fillies. However, no winner has not gone on to 1000 Guineas glory since Sayyedati in 1992 – not great news for this year’s favourite Maybe. The Group 2 Debutante Stakes, run over 7f at the Curragh has an even worse record as it is a race which has never supplied a 1000 Guineas winner. Again, this is bad news for supporters of last year’s winner Maybe and also the 3rd placed horse that day Lightening Pearl. Having won the previous season’s Prix Marcel Boussac, Shadayid, Salsabil, Miesque and Midway Lady all went on to land the 1000 Guineas. That era proved a golden age for the Longchamp Group 1 but since then only Finsceal Beo had landed the cross channel double and that statistic won’t improve this year as none of the five runners in last season’s race take part here. There have already been two major trials take place this season. The one with the strongest record in the 1000 Guineas in recent seasons has been Newbury’s Dubai Duty Free Stakes or the Fred Darling in old money. With the exception of Blue Bunting and Speciosa, the last four British trained 1000 Guineas winners to have already run earlier in the season all achieved a top four finish at Newbury. Moonstone Magic was a very impressive winner of this year’s renewal when she showed that she is clearly at home on a softer surface. The other major recognised trial race is the Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes run here in April. This year’s race provided a thrilling finish with Mick Channon’s Nayarra just losing out in a driving finish. Nine of the last ten 1000 Guineas winners achieved a top two finish on their most recent start and therefore Gray Pearl, La Collina, Lily’s Angel, Starscope and Sunday Times have a pretty big negative to overcome. However, eight of those nine had been last time out winners and therefore extra emphasis should be given to Diala, Discourse, Homecoming Queen, Laugh Out Loud, Lightening Pearl, Lyric Of Light, Mashoora, Maybe, Moonstone Magic and The Fugue. Interestingly, in a similar vein to the 2000 Guineas, six of the last ten winners were making their seasonal debuts. No one trainer can really stake a claim to having a particularly strong record in the 1000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien’s overall record in the race leaves a lot to be desired considering the quality of horses which he has run in the race. He did break his duck when Virginia Waters spread-eagled the field in 2005 but only three of his other 21 runners have made the frame. Perhaps Maybe or Homecoming Queen can improve that stat this season. Mahmood Al Zarooni will be hoping that Lyric Of Light or Discourse can give him back-to-back victories in the race whilst John Gosden relies on The Fugue and Starscope to give him first success in the race since 2000. As a nation, the French have been very successful in the 1000 Guineas, winning it twice in the last four years with Natagora and Special Duty. Mashoora is their sole representative on Sunday. The favourite may have won three of the last five renewals but they haven’t always had it their own way. However, and average starting price of around 10/1 suggests that the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. In fact, all of the last ten winners had been no worse than 7th in the betting suggesting that the key group to focus on this year are Maybe, Lyric Of Light, Moonstone Magic, Mashoora, Discourse, La Collina and possibly Diala. Shortlist Moonstone Magic Mashoora La Collina Diala Conclusion It goes without saying that Maybe, the winner of all five of her starts last season, looks to be the one that they all have to beat but from a trends point of view she does have some hurdles to overcome as the past winners of the races that she won last season don’t have the best of records in the 1000 Guineas. Include the fact that this is one race that O’Brien hasn’t dominated and the fact that the ground won’t be ideal and there is a case to take her on at 6/4. A similar thing can be said of Lyric Of Light who as the Fillies’ Mile winner has a long losing run to overcome. In fact, her Fillies’ mile victory was far from convincing anyway as she took an age to get going and even then made hard work of it. With the ground as it is, the recent Newbury winner MOONSTONE MAGIC looks a massive threat to the two principals particularly as she is proven on soft ground and should improve again for the extra furlong. Quite what she beat that day remains to be seen but she was visually impressive regardless and sometimes you just have to go with what you see rather than the form book. The French filly Mashoora is no stranger to some cut in the ground. Although she is yet to encounter anything as soft as this, she didn’t look like it would inconvenience her when she won a shade cheekily in the Group 3 Prix Imprudence last month, the very same race won by the 2010 1000 Guineas winner Special Duty. La Collina would appear to have a bit to find to overcome Maybe having twice trailed in her wake last season but she did beat the colt Power in last season’s Phoenix Stakes and so could quite easily run into a place at the very least. Diala could prove to be the dark horse of the race as her form last year is not far off the best of these. Narrowly beaten by Lyric Of Light on her debut she won next time in very impressive fashion and therefore remains a filly with plenty of potential.

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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. Tough race to pick the winner and I ended up with around 6 on my shortlist and while I thought about leaving it alone I couldn't help myself and plumped with Lyric Of Light and the long shot of The Fugue. I picked LOL because I think the form is slightly better, having run to TopSpeed's in excess of 100 and having beaten better horses than her stablemate. My big worry is that I don't think either of them will fancy this soft ground being by Street Cry. The Fugue is a long shot but it takes a good horse to run to a TS of 90 on their first run and while the Oaks looks the more likely race to target, as we saw today its not impossible for a horse destined for Epsom to do well here. It would certainly be a big ask but I don't she is w/out chance of getting a place.

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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. [TABLE]

[TR] [TD=class: xl66]Front Runners[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 64][/TD] [TD=class: xl64, width: 129]Track leaders[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 64][/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 64][/TD] [TD=class: xl65, width: 139]Midfield[/TD] [TD=class: xl63, width: 64][/TD] [TD=class: xl67, width: 131]Hold Up[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl64]Alla Speranza (1)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl64]Diala (13)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl64]Discourse (11)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66]Gray Pearl (14)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl66]Homecoming Queen (2)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl64]La Collina (8)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl67]Laugh Out Loud (18)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl64]Lightening Pearl (5)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl67] Lily’s Angel (15)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl67] Lyric Of Light (10)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl64]Mashoora (3)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl64]Maybe (9)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl65]Moonstone Magic (6)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl64]Nayarra (17)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl64]Radio Gaga (16)[/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl67]Starscope (7)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl67]Sunday Times (4)[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl63][/TD] [TD=class: xl67]The Fugue (12)[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Pace angle/racing style above plus where the horses are drawn, a few hold up horses drawn high will be looking for gaps late on. Quite a few tracking leaders likely to be drawn low. Possible front runners are 1 drawn high and 1 drawn low. Moonstone Magic likely to have ideal race position in midfield.
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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th.

‎3.15 Newmarket, Lyric of Light at 10/1 (Bet365) Huge odds I think, Goldophin trained filly who was unbeaten last season over 3 starts. Unlike the majority of Horses in this race it has ran and won over a mile before which can only be an advantage to her and I think the ground should be fine.

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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. 3.15 Newmarket - 3pts win Diala @ 14/1 and 1pt win The Fugue @ 18/1 (Bet365) It's difficult to know how to play these races where you're confident but the short-priced favourite could always win and scupper your chances. They say fortune favours the brave so that's the way I'm playing it today. It seems telling that Ladbrokes are going even money about Maybe and she's obviously top-class, but she's probably yet to come up against anything quite as good as what's in front of her today and she's worth taking on. Of the rest, William Haggas - who promises to have a great season with some high-class newcomers - saddles Diala who is very interesting in my eyes for this classic. Her first two runs were extremely promising and I think if she was owned by Godolphin or trained by a slightly more feared trainer, she'd definitely be a single-figured price for this. One of the fancies for this race, Lyric Of Light, finished narrowly ahead of Diala on both of their debuts at Newmarket, but I felt that the latter was the one to take out of the race. Obviously the former has won twice again since but my selection travelled well that day before picking up under a generous ride. I loved the way she was last off the bridle whilst the winner had firmly made her move and she duly romped to victory on her second start. Again she travelled comfortably before being eased out for a run, and she then asserted to a ready 4l victory with Eddie Ahern merely shaking the reins. The three immediately behind her have proved they're not absolute mugs - going on to be rated in the mid-70s and Haggas' runner could not have done it a huge amount easier. The one mile trip will be no problem and her debut came on good to soft ground. There are nibbles of money around for The Fugue - a horse I am keen on for the Oaks at Epsom next month. Her dam was edged out by a short-head in the Ribblesdale and she shaped like she'd get further when winning her maiden last year. I think that could be her big day but at the same time she's not without a hope today and it is encouraging that she is being backed. It will be difficult to win this with just one run under her belt but she was impressive that day. She travelled supremely well and made good headway up the centre of the course to track the leader before putting the race to bed close home. The runner-up has gone okay since and the pair were well clear. She was doing her best work late on and looked like she'd come on plenty for the run. The step up in trip will obviously suit and she looks a horse to follow this season.

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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th.

Horrible incident with Grey Pearl can't remember something like that for a while. Didn't look good at all.
Only saw it sat down in the stalls, they mentioned a seizure??? It looked like it was just laid down eating grass but is clearly not right. It's also a possible front runner and could have taken them along from its draw in 14.
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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th.

Only saw it sat down in the stalls' date=' they mentioned a seizure??? It looked like it was just laid down eating grass but is clearly not right. It's also a possible front runner and could have taken them along from its draw in 14.[/quote'] Yeah I thought she had just got her head under the stalls at first and you expected her to just get up when they opened them but she just couldn't seem to move. Hopefully she will be okay.
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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th.

I don't really know what to say. Hugely encouraging run from The Fugue though.
Just a shame she couldnt hold on for third for me! Considering that it was only her second run, she will probably want further, she didnt get a clear run and that Gosden didnt think the ground would suit hugely encouraging could be an understatement... Having said that i dont think the form will hold up too well but I guess we will have to see! The two Godolphin fillies were hugely disappointing and I think that will mostly be down to the ground judging by Street Cry's progeny statistics and probably due to another inauspicious start from the yard again.
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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. So sad to see the incident with Gray Pearl. Gutted for connections too as well as the poor horse :sad Puts it all into perspective really, although I have to say a mightily impressive winner. Not a nice way to round off Guineas weekend. RIP Gray Pearl.

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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. Agree Russ... Nephrite turned over, his 2nd string wins. Maybe turned over, his 2nd string wins. O Brien is playing a clever game. Laughing all the way to the bank he is. £££

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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. Don't know if Im being harsh on the winner but the whole race seemed a bit odd after that horrible incident at the start. Too many fancied horses ran way below par imo to make me look at that form and think it looks solid. Maybe the delay had an impact on some of the runners? The winner was impressive but I don't know just not convinced by the whole race.

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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. I think it's just very difficult to understand how a filly who had raced 13 times prior to the Guineas with good form without being outstanding, can romp to a 9l victory. I'd like to hand it to her but I honestly don't think she's a superstar. She was comfortably beaten recently before narrowly beating Fire Lily - who, whilst a useful yardstick - is hardly a wonderfilly and had been put in her place by Maybe previously. The ground obviously suited but whether the problems at the start benefited her more than others I simply don't know. It just doesn't feel right. She'd only won 3 from 13 prior to today! I'm a bit nonplussed. Fair play and all that but where's the improvement come from? It will be extremely interesting to see what happens next with the runners from the race.

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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th.

Agree Russ... Nephrite turned over, his 2nd string wins. Maybe turned over, his 2nd string wins. O Brien is playing a clever game. Laughing all the way to the bank he is. £££
He sure is Fella ! Listen, he must be pissing himself today. http://horses.sportinglife.com/Racecards/0,12495,495876,00.html
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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. I'm stealing this off another forum, link provided just to give 'Spook' some credit.

[TABLE=class: tborder, width: 100%, align: center] [TR] [TD=class: alt1, bgcolor: #F5F5F5]I'm just wondering if there's something in what they said during the period it took to get the race off. The less informed Ch4 team were blathering away about keeping warm, staying loose, and getting the weight off their backs, etc but during this period they snatched a few words with the more scientific and knowledgeable Aiden O'Brien who quite without prompting launched into an analysis of how a horses heartbeat responds the moment they're loaded in the stalls (something I assume he's monitored before) and lets be honest, there was a time in the past where Aiden used to personally supervise the loading of his horses. There is that bit of me that can't get away from the fact that the two horses who weren't put into the stalls and therefore endured this stress loading on their heart were the ones that came first and second, whilst the third was the fav and the 'best of the rest'[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [/TABLE]
Might shed some light on the matter :ok
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Re: 1000 Guineas - May 6th. Still hard to believe how Homecoming Queen could win the 1.000 Guineas by 9 lengths. I've been on the road when hearing the result of the race in the radio and I couldn't stop laughing for minutes as I simply thought it must have been a joke. But it's not, obviously. I mean Homecoming Queen is far from a superstar, I even doubted she's a Group 1 horse - still doubt it actually. She needed seven attempts to break her maiden tag. I've been at Fairyhouse the day she won her first race. It was a poor race and she looked far from exciting. That the same horse won now the 1.000 Guineas is quite a bit a fairytale.

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