What is the best type of bet in horse racing ?

[Trotter]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? One thing I've never done in 30 years of betting is back more than one horse in a race I can see the logic in the sense of confidence and regular small returns but just can't bring myself to do it..........it's like admitting that you're unsure about your selection and can't really decide who's going to win In effrect if you back 2 to win you're accepting half the win odds about both of them - it's difficult to see how a horse that you're not sure about at full odds can ever be value at half odds In those circs I'd leave the race alone

[Lars]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? I used to be in a similar camp to Fintron, that I would back each-way at prices upwards of the 5/1 mark, and anything upwards of that I'd be backing each-way regardless unless I particularly felt that it was a "win or bust" horse, where I might pluck up the courage to do a win bet for a big priced one. I decided to go down a similar route as Monte in about November time. I'd had the best run of my life over the previous two months and after having a good look through my results, I realised that I'd had more winners than placed efforts, which you wouldn't really expect to be true. It just seems that the sort of horse I generally go for (overpriced, not entirely obvious) leads to them winning or doing nothing at all. There's always going to be big priced runners-up, I had two in two days at 14/1 beaten in a photo, win only at the start of this year but that's life. I've probably saved 50pts since starting this win-only scheme in not putting in the place part of the bet when they're beaten out of sight. I'm also prone to going on long losing runs (as I do back at big prices) and this includes horses not even making the frame, doing each-way bets just compounds the losses further. I guess it should really depend on what sort of horses you go for, if you pick more obvious candidates that are more or less guaranteed to place, then by all means, an each-way bet is a realistic option. It just isn't for me any more with my current style of picking selections and when a winner does finally go in, backing win-only maximises the returns.

[Haystacks]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ?

One thing I've never done in 30 years of betting is back more than one horse in a race I can see the logic in the sense of confidence and regular small returns but just can't bring myself to do it..........it's like admitting that you're unsure about your selection and can't really decide who's going to win In effrect if you back 2 to win you're accepting half the win odds about both of them - it's difficult to see how a horse that you're not sure about at full odds can ever be value at half odds In those circs I'd leave the race alone

Have to disagree with you there Trotter. For me, it's not about definitively 'deciding who's going to win'. You do sometimes find that the market has underestimated the chances of more than one runner (typically if you think there is a false favourite). If there is value in backing two (or more) then why not go for it? For example. I don't see any problem backing two 5-1 shots in the same race rather than two 5-1 shots in different races. Sure, you can't win two races, but the goal is simply to make a profitable bet. Strike-rate is irrelevant.

[fintron]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ?

I used to be in a similar camp to Fintron, that I would back each-way at prices upwards of the 5/1 mark, and anything upwards of that I'd be backing each-way regardless unless I particularly felt that it was a "win or bust" horse, where I might pluck up the courage to do a win bet for a big priced one. I decided to go down a similar route as Monte in about November time. I'd had the best run of my life over the previous two months and after having a good look through my results, I realised that I'd had more winners than placed efforts, which you wouldn't really expect to be true. It just seems that the sort of horse I generally go for (overpriced, not entirely obvious) leads to them winning or doing nothing at all. There's always going to be big priced runners-up, I had two in two days at 14/1 beaten in a photo, win only at the start of this year but that's life. I've probably saved 50pts since starting this win-only scheme in not putting in the place part of the bet when they're beaten out of sight. I'm also prone to going on long losing runs (as I do back at big prices) and this includes horses not even making the frame, doing each-way bets just compounds the losses further. I guess it should really depend on what sort of horses you go for, if you pick more obvious candidates that are more or less guaranteed to place, then by all means, an each-way bet is a realistic option. It just isn't for me any more with my current style of picking selections and when a winner does finally go in, backing win-only maximises the returns.

Thats a good point you raise Lars, about the 'all or nothing horses'. I know the sort you mean as one of my betting pals describes his bets as the same - often backing runners from yards like Stuart Williams, John Butler, Barney Curley etc. With those types, if the handbreak is on and they don't want it to win, then more often than not it won't win, so I think you going win only makes perfect sense. I'd describe my own bets as being more centred around solid, last time out form, with a lot making the frame on their latest run, so I guess if we compared our win and place totals, I'd have more placers than you, but your average win return would be significantly higher than mine?

[Trotter]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ?

Have to disagree with you there Trotter. For me' date=' it's not about definitively 'deciding who's going to win'. You do sometimes find that the market has underestimated the chances of more than one runner (typically if you think there is a false favourite). If there is value in backing two (or more) then why not go for it? For example. I don't see any problem backing two 5-1 shots in the same race rather than two 5-1 shots in different races. Sure, you can't win two races, but the goal is simply to make a profitable bet. Strike-rate is irrelevant.[/quote'] I'd rather make a profit than a loss but I'm not really in the game to make money. I look upon a race as a puzzle and I'm trying to solve it............and solving it means finding the winner, it doesn't involve finding a group of horses from which the winner might come Obviously if I was trying to make a living or betting enough that it mattered to me I'd probably approach it differently.............but then I'd probably have grey hair and a nervous tic.......... :unsure

[harrisman]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ?

I'd rather make a profit than a loss but I'm not really in the game to make money. I look upon a race as a puzzle and I'm trying to solve it............and solving it means finding the winner, it doesn't involve finding a group of horses from which the winner might come Obviously if I was trying to make a living or betting enough that it mattered to me I'd probably approach it differently.............but then I'd probably have grey hair and a nervous tic.......... :unsure

I agree with looking at the race as a puzzle to be solved but the puzzle to be solved for me is that of yielding a profit out of the event in question using the most appropriate technique for that depending on the odds. I know this approach is at odds with many punters but its been working for me this year with a steadily growing, although slow, bank increase. I guess though the main thing is to be happy with your approach!

[3 legs and a wheel]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? Somewhere on this thread is a statement to the effect that bookies fear doubles. I know a couple of bookies. They let it be known that they do but, trust me, they love 'em. In fact, they love multiples full stop. Why? Here's the reasoning: In order to make a long term profit, you need to obtain value when you place bet. If you don't, long term, you will lose. If you place a multiple bet, a couple of minutes before the first race begins, you will have an approximate idea of whether or not there is value in the first bet. As for the next part of the multiple bet, given that the race may be more than a few minutes away, it is possible that the eventual SP will be very different to the current odds. Therefore, whether the SP of the second bet will have value or not is an unknown. Given the above, it is entirely possible that none of the individual bets, which constitute the multiple, have any value. Therefore, long-term, you will lose - which is why bookies love multiples.

[erhaab1965]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? There's a cracking bet in tomorrows 3.10 Sandown . The bet is the Tote Trifecta. There is £14,557 of dead money rolled over . I'm quite sure that the vast majority of the betting public will not be aware of the added value in this bet and I'm quite sure they will not say anything in the Racing Post or C4. The only people who will know are you , me , a few pros and a few Tote employees . Good luck if you are having a shot.

[erhaab1965]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? Less than 2 hrs to go , a Betfred shop i was in didn't have a clue there was a trifecta rollover today or ever in the past. If they didn't have a clue then i'm pretty certain the majority of punters in that shop/ area won't know about the roll over . Good luck I hope you get it up .

[RACING-UK]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? trotter i can see your angle regarding betting on more than 1 horse in a race, but surely its about more than just finding a winner, if your view is its about solving a puzzle, then go to a games shop and you can play to your hearts content, i agree we all have different opinions regarding betting, but its down to the hard earn't at the end of the day, no point solving a puzzle trotter if its cost you say £50 notes to find out, racing is all about percentages its a maths game and if you cant do your percentages then your never win at this game, ive been involved in racing 0ver 25 years and can honestly say, its getting harder and harder each year to sniff out value, its all down to getting on at the right price early doors, then covering your stake with laying off at the right prices limiting your losses, as we will all bet many losers, its about backing the right priced winners that will make you survive for the long journey at this game, hope ive been helpfull

[3 legs and a wheel]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? Harrisman has raised an interesting point regarding the gradual compounding of stakes being the key to long term larger profits. On the face of it, this appears to be a common sense approach. However, when we go into this a little deeper, we find that compounding stakes may not be the key at all and, in fact, it may be the road to the poor house. Here’s some examples which illustrate my point. Let’s say that we start off with a bank of £100 and we use a system which requires us to back horses to win whose odds are Evens using 10% of our current betting bank. Example 1: We back 2 horses in consecutive races. Our 1^st selection wins but our 2^nd selection comes 3^rd. Race 1: Bank = £100. Stake = £10. Profit = £10 (ignoring any commission). Current bank = £100 + £10 = £110. Race 2: Bank = £110. Stake = £11. Profit = -£11 Current bank = £100 - £11 = £99. Example 2: We back 2 horses in consecutive races. Our 1^st selection comes 2^nd but our 2^nd selection wins. Race 1: Bank = £100. Stake = £10. Profit = -£10. Current bank = £100 - £10 = £90. Race 2: Bank = £90. Stake = £9. Profit = £9 (ignoring commission) Current bank = £90 + £9 = £99. In both examples, we lost money over the course of the two races – but why? In the case of example 1, following a win, we increased our stakes. This meant that we won money at the lower rate of £10 per bet and lost money at the higher rate of £11 per bet. This resulted in an overall loss. In the case of example 2, following a loss, we decreased our stakes. This meant that we won money at the lower rate of £9 per bet and lost money at the higher rate of £10 per bet. Again, this resulted in an overall loss. The losses are even greater when we take commission into account. It is obvious that if we continue, eventually, we will lose our entire bank. OK, I hear you say, ‘but I have a winning system’. Yes, you may well have, but even the best systems go through losing periods. It is during such periods where the above will have the greatest effect on the betting bank. Regardless, slowly but surely, the above will take its toll. Betting is all about statistics. It is purely a numbers game. Statistically, the more your system has won in the past, the more it is likely to lose in the future. The better a good run is, the higher your betting bank will be and the higher will be your stakes and the greater will be your losses when the bad times come. It is probable therefore that future losses will exceed past gains. Conversely, the worse a bad run is, the lower your betting bank will be and the lower will be your stakes and the lower will be your profits when the good times come. It is probable therefore that future gains will be too small to overcome past losses. Unless your system is exceptionally good, using the above staking strategy, you will lose over the long term. So is there a better option? Yup, it’s called level stakes. Regardless of whether your previous bet won or lost, you maintain constant stakes. Let’s look at this example: Example 3: We back 2 horses in consecutive races. Our 1^st selection comes 2^nd but our 2^nd selection wins. Race 1: Bank = £100. Stake = £10. Profit = -£10. Current bank = £100 - £10 = £90. Race 2: Bank = £90. Stake = £10. Profit = £10 (ignoring commission) Current bank = £100 - £10 = £90. As you can see, over the two bets, we broke even (ignoring commission). Not great but at least it does better than increasing/decreasing stakes in line with the size of the bank. If we have a long term winning system, then, providing we win enough to overcome the commission, we will win. So, how do we increase our betting bank at a faster rate? We increase our stakes in a slow and controlled rate. Here’s what I do: Let’s say I start off with a bank of £100 and I use stakes of 10% of ORIGINAL bank i.e. £10. I wait until the bank has reached double its original value (£200). I then take half of the profit (£100/2 = £50) and multiply this by 10% = £5. My new stake = £10 + £5 = £15. However, I don’t suddenly increase my stakes from £10 to £15. That would be asking for trouble. Don’t forget, my bank has doubled. Therefore, my system has had a good run. Therefore, a bad run is now likely and I will be losing money at a rate of £15 whereas I only won at a rate of £10 per bet. I therefore calculate how many bets it took to double the bank. Let’s say it was 100. I therefore increase my stakes by £5/100 = £0.05 per bet. Therefore, my stakes on bet 101 = £10 + 0.05 = £10.05. My stakes on bet 102 = £10 + £0.05 + £0.05 = £10.10. Once my stakes get to £15, I stop increasing the stakes until my bank reaches £300. If my bank reaches £300 before my stakes reach £15, I recalculate my stakes. My new stake = £10 + £5 + £5 = £20. However, just as before, I drip feed the additional £5 into my betting. I find that, this time, my bank has increased from £200 to £300 over the course of only 50 bets. So I increase the stakes at the rate of £5/50 = £0.10. So, my next stake is £10 + £5 + £0.10 = £15.10. The stake after that is £10 + £5 + £0.10 + £0.10= £15.20. I realise that this may seem complex but you’ll soon get the hang of it. It’s all about increasing stakes in a slow and controlled way and letting the system decide when it is ready to receive an increase in stakes. You can’t make a system do what you want it to do. If we could, we would all be minted. It does what it wants to do when it wants to do it – a bit like a badly behaved child. Basically, it’s all about ‘listening’ to your system and giving it what it wants when it wants it. It may sound as though the system is controlling you rather than the other way round. Well, anyone who thinks that they are in command of a system are, IMHO, fooling themselves.

[3 legs and a wheel]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? Racing-UK You raise an interesting point that value is becoming more and more difficult to find. In some ways, this is true. My feeling is that, over the years, markets have become more efficient i.e. the odds of the horses, at the off, now more accurately reflect their true chances of winning than they did in the past. Further, bots are now automatically scanning the exchanges looking for anomalies (value) that they can exploit for profit. However, I also believe that this recession is causing trainers to do things that some of them may not ordinarily want or wish to do just to remain financially viable. I'd don't wish to say any more on this subject lest I end up in court facing a judge. As such, although markets may be becoming more efficient, the odds of the horses comprising a market may be becoming less efficient. This may sound like a contradiction but it isn't. Let's take this example: Let's take a past two horse race: Horse 1: Value +5% Horse 2: Value -9% Value in race: -4% Now let's take a more recent race: Horse 1: Value +10% Horse 2: Value -8% Value in race: -2% Although the value on the race as a whole has decreased from - 4% to - 2%, the value in horse 1 has increased form +5% to +10%. That said, there are two 'buggeration' factors. Firstly, the exchanges rule all these days. They even determine the odds that the bookies set. The exchanges are ruled by the traders. They have enough financial resources to move the odds as they will. Their shenanigans can cause a horse to quickly lose value. To be fair, their shenanigans can also create value. Secondly, bots abound on the exchanges. They can identify and exploit value long before a human can. So, spotting value is one thing, obtaining it is quite another. All too often, these days, by the time I get my money into the queue, the odds have moved against me.

[erhaab1965]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? Arguably the best value race for punters tomorrow is race4 at Newmarket the Palace House Stakes. There will be over £15k of dead money added to the trfiecta pool . The best thing about it is that very very few punters will be aware of it !! I'm pretty sure the journalists at the Racing Post will keep their lips sealed about it also the C4 presenters will not alert the punters to the added value. I'm aware that some of us on here might be small staking punters but don't worry the minimum unit stake is 10p not £1.00 !! It smashes the tricast out of the water each week , not sure if there will be a tricast tomorrow. Good Luck to those that participate.

[RussP]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? Keep it simple is my advice :ok I think most people who try consistently for that 1 big elusive win will ultimately fail...it will come off for the odd 1 or 2 people but, in general, it's a mug punting approach. My Dad is a great example.....he must have done hundreds of Lucky 15's, spending £15 a time, searching for that elusive 4 winners. I think he returned £3k once but, had he kept records, I'm pretty sure he'd still have recorded an overall loss. But, to him, it felt like all those months of putting the L15 on had paid dividends. I favour the slow, steady approach of EW singles that will keep me in profit year after year and, as confidence & profit grows, so do stakes :ok Take yesterday for me as an example. I backed 4 horses, all EW singles, and hit 2 winners at prices of 16/1 and 14/1. Using my Dad as the 'mug punter' example, he'd be gutted that he didn't double them up. Not me though as there'll be more than enough occasions where the double will fall by the wayside. The win versus EW argument is an interesting one. For sure, I'd make more profit backing each selection win only but I prefer the comfort blanket of 'regular returns'. That's just a personal preference and I certainly wouldn't put anyone off who backs win only. At the prices I back at, it can be many days before you hit a winner so the consideration, always, has to be how it will affect confidence.

[erhaab1965]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? I've just been informed theres over £16k added to 2.45 Newmarket prizepool for the Trifecta , arguably one of the best bests this week. I'm pretty sure less than 1% of the betting public will be aware of this roll over !! Its a very easy bet to get up , lot lot easier than picking the winner. Minimum stakes 10p !!!!!! It is certain to beat the tricast dividend.

[mowgli77]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ?

I've just been informed theres over £16k added to 2.45 Newmarket prizepool for the Trifecta , arguably one of the best bests this week. I'm pretty sure less than 1% of the betting public will be aware of this roll over !! Its a very easy bet to get up , lot lot easier than picking the winner. Minimum stakes 10p !!!!!! It is certain to beat the tricast dividend.

Just seen the other thread in systems/personal threads. Can you only put this bet on via tote or can you put it on via other bookies/betfair etc? I'm interested in having a good look at this as I think you could have a good point that it is purposely underadvertised.

[erhaab1965]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ?

Just seen the other thread in systems/personal threads. Can you only put this bet on via tote or can you put it on via other bookies/betfair etc? I'm interested in having a good look at this as I think you could have a good point that it is purposely underadvertised.

You can bet via most online bookies or via betting shops with Tote Direct terminals. Some online bookies offer % cashback too on occasions. I personally bet in the shops because I can use the slips to do non full cover perms , eg any 8 to win , 9 to come 2nd and 12 to come 3rd. Online only allows you to do full cover perms so for 10 selections at 10p it will cost you £72. , unless you have time to do lots of smaller perms. Todays result see another favorite win ,infact like in the last few weeks the top few in the betting have been comming 1/2/3 which is what we dont want to see. Nevertheless it still paid £964 vs £393 !!!

[erhaab1965]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? £18.5 added to the Tote trifecta pool in the 3.45 York , fantastic value !!! Good Luck

[FlowRock]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? Nice thing you discovered here erhaab, recently an Betfair Guy (working for betfair in Stevenage, but born in germany) was in my shop (a germantote shop in Berlin, where I work) and I told him about the rollover. He knew nothing about it... He could not believe it. The sad part of the story, I can not play for 0,10 €, min is 1 € in germany.

[erhaab1965]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ?

Its less than 24 hrs away , probably one of the best value bets of the year. The Tote Trifecta roll over. Its very likely going to be the Wokingham like it has been 9 times out of the last 10 . Also theres every chance its going to be the biggest Trifecta pool of the entire 2012 Flat season , get on . Over £50K added to prizepool !! Minimum unit stake 10p !!

[erhaab1965]

Re: What is the best type of bet in horse racing ? This was the bet they didn't want you find out about. Wokingham Tricast..................£7,408 Wokingham Trifecta................£46,255 Irresistable value !!!!!!! As the title of the thread asks , surely this is a contender for best type of bet in horse racing. I'm sure most of the professional tipsters on here will agree that getting / spotting value is essential for keeping ahead in this game and I'm sure many of you had couldn't resist having a go because as i predicted the day before it was the biggest pool of the flat season so far. Give yourself a pat on the back if you managed to get it up , unfortunately for me I only had the second and third. Can anybody find a better value bet this season ?

[Darran]

I had a dabble. Did a 7 horse combo but only got the 2nd Sent from my HTC Desire S using PL Forum