International Friendlies > 2012

[30minsoccer]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Switzerland v Germany A good training for Germany, to be against an aggressive team like Switzerland. Switzerland will not participate in the Euro, but the team will try to have a good performance for the country's football lovers. The score will be over 2.5 goals and the first goal will be scored in the first half. Portugal v FYR Macedonia This match is interesting for Portugal, because FYR Macedonia will not participate in the Euro. FYR Macedonia, will have many basic players missing, so this match is a training match for Portugal. Portugal will win this match and the first goal will be scored in the first half.

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

SPAIN - SERBIA (St.Gallen/SWITZERLAND) 18:00 CET Spain will be without the services of Barcelona/Athletic Bilbao players(Copa del Rey Final last night): Iniesta, Xavi, Llorente,...,but one way or another Del Bosque will be able to field a very strong team. Spain(Probable lineup): Casillas (Real Madrid) - Arbeloa (Real Madrid), Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid), Raul Albiol (Real Madrid), Jordi Alba (Valencia) - Cazorla (Malaga), Xabi Alonso (Real Madrid), Adrian (Atletico Madrid) , David Silva (Manchester City) - Soldado (Valencia), Negredo (FC Sevilla) On the other hand, Serbia with the new coach(Sinisa Mihajlovic) and some wholesale changes.The likes of Vidic, Stankovic, etc...ain't in the team anymore. Some 19 or 20 players of the current team are below 25 years of age. Mihajlovic has already announced both formation and starting lineup for this clash. Serbia(3-4-2-1): Kahriman (Tavria) - Ivanovic (Chelsea)/Captain/, Subotic (Borussia Dortmund), D.Tosic (Red Star Belgrade) - Basta (Udinese), Radovanovic (Atalanta), Ignjovski (Werder Bremen), Kolarov (Manchester City) - Ljajic (Fiorentina), Djuricic (Heerenveen) - Lekic (Osasuna) Two of three biggest prospects of Serbian football: Darko Lazovic (Red Star Belgrade) and Lazar Markovic (Partizan) will start on the bench(which doesn't look bad at all: Z.Tosic (CSKA Moscow), Matic (Benfica), Jankovic (Genoa), Bisevac (PSG), Tadic (Twente), gk Brkic (Udinese),...).The third biggest prospect - 20-year-old attacking midfielder Filip Djuricic (Heerenveen) will be leading the offensive line from the start. Even though according to some sources he's already signed a pre-contract with Chelsea, 18-year-old Lazar Markovic ( http://www1.skysports.com/transfer-centre/scout/15198/7540650/Sky-Sports-Scout-Lazar-Markovic ) will be the one to watch if he takes the part in the second half.He's dropped in form under Avram Grant in the second part of the season, but considering his potential and the fact that he's rated as the biggest talent of Serbian football in the recent history and generally the biggest prospect of European football, he'll be under the radar of a number of scouts. 18-year-old midfielder Srdjan Mijailovic (Red Star Belgrade), also called up in the national team, has joined Serbia U19 after all. Anyway, considering the class of Spain and the fact that Spanish players are likely to be in better mental as well as physical shape due to upcoming EC in Ukraine/Poland, I guess they're a very likely winners here. Probably something like 2:0, maybe even 3:0 or 3:1 in the favor of Spain, but the price of 1.40-1.45 is simply a pure joke. Serbia have undoubtedlly one of the best defensive lines in the world, if not the best. Subotic, who used to be a mistake-prone player in the national team, became a real rock and is surely one of the best defenders in the game these days.In other words, Serbia are always capable of keeping this match very tight, while there's still plenty of potential to hit Spain on the break.However, due to many changes and with most of the players being for the first time together in the NT, I'm not really convinced that Serbia will be able to pull off the positive result. Also, when it comes to Serbian NT, one of the biggest problems might be more than obvious lack of real, natural forwards. Dejan Lekic (Osasuna) is the only real option, but he struggled with the serious injury not so long ago. He really picked up some great form before this injury, having even scored 2 goals in Osasuna's 3:2 win over Barcelona. This situation forced the football association to contact the ex-Red Star and OFK Belgrade player and father of former Barcelona star Bojan Krkic - who after all might become the part of Serbian NT.

This is a tough one to call. A spain side minus Iniesta, Xavi and Villa impresses me a lot less, and there's some good quality in that Serbia side, who, if the new coach has them motivated, may keep it tight. On the other hand there's some good attackers for Spain, and maybe Serbia might play more open. I'm leaning more towards under 2.5 @ evens or so but I might have a look in-play.

[HastGill1]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Result: Belgium 2 Montenegro 2 I saw quite a lot of this game, and on the first half display, I definitely would have backed Belgium. They were superb. Montenegro got an early lead on the break, but after that Belgium laid siege with impressive forward play. It was no real surprise when they equalised or when they got a second from a penalty, so make it 2-1 at half time. The main question was how many more Belgium would score in the second half - I was expecting Belgium to win by 3 goals. But Montenegro came out and attacked in the second half, and instead of hitting them on the counter, Belgium eased off and seemed happy to defend. Complacency? Overconfidence? They paid for it when Montenegro equalised near the end. Belgium were the better side but were punished for sitting on their narrow lead.

I watched until half time then went out and as you say Belgium dominated and deserved to go in 2-1 up at least, despite their first goal being at least a yard offside. Was gutted when I saw the final score.

[pg_yid]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Mexico vs Wales Mexico @ 1.57 (Coral) Reports suggest Mexico will be playing a strong team, and their squad looks pretty much full strength. Hernandez will not be playing at the Olympics but he's in the squad for Mexico's three friendlies in upcoming weeks. Meanwhile, Bale, Vaughan, Ledley and Hennessey will be playing no part for Wales; neither will Collins. Wales have been very poor in recent years with the notable exception of the fantastic run they had under Gary Speed, in which their performances suggested they could be serious contenders at international level. It's hard to say if this will continue under Coleman, but his managerial record doesn't really inspire too much confidence and if you look at Wales' long-term form this is the sort of game they normally struggle in. The withdrawals they suffered for "injuries" has been a problem which has dogged Wales for some time and is bound to have a negative effect on the mentality of the remaining players; see this blog http://www.markpitman1.com/2012/05/21/coleman-maximum-mexico/. Although it could be said that Bellamy's decision to stay on during WC qualifying would have had the opposite effect. Mexico's form is largely good in the last two years. They got the better of a decent USA side in the CONCACAF Cup, and in winning the competition can claim to be the best side in the region. They struggled in the Copa America, but it was the CONCACAF which was their priority and an U23 side was sent to Argentina for that tournament. Not all their friendly results have been good but in general they tend to take them seriously and boast some good results, victories over Serbia, Chile, Venezuela, Bosnia and a draw with Spain in the last couple of years. The game is played in New Jersey, US, and so I would strongly imagine there will be a strong Mexican support there. Coral's price of 1.57 is a standout one and better than the odds offered by Betfair (1.55 to back); I think they are being a little generous here and so have backed Mexico, though not with large stakes.

[Capricorno]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Ireland WIN @ 2.02 with Pinny (Im using Centrebet - slightly lower) 4 unit play I see this as a good time to 'pounce' on Ireland. A lot of the 'sharp' money has been on Bosnia and odds have shifted. I know the Bosnian team inside our and I disagree with this. Bosnia is missing their captain in defense- Emir Spahic (Seville), their left back (Sasha Papac- Rangers Glasgow) and their right back. Also Medunjanin is in bad form, as well as Misimovic and Rahimic is 35yrs +. Beyond that the Irish will take this match much more serious, whereas Bosnia is more focused on Mexico when 25000+ Bosnian fans will attend the game in Chicago. Mexico Win @ 1.55 took this for 6 units I think pg_yid described it preety well. Agree with 100% and this was one of the first bets i had in mind

[markvighan]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 [h=2]Spain - Serbia[/h]

Match being played in Austria. Spain is the overall favourite for the EURO but in this match we will have a different spanish team playing. In front there will be Serbia. Please correct me if I'm wrong but this team is quite poor. They have very bad results on their recent games, losing to Slovenia, Mexico and Honduras, drawing Chipre and winning against Armenia. They only scored twice in all those games, both against Armenia. Doesn't that reflect their game? And they have a new coach for this game, not really sure if that is good or bad. I think this odds are great for the -1 AH, and they should drop a lot as we draw closer to the game as the ocasional betttors will put their money on the favourites. Source:

TFB

[MPLouis]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Not strongly recommended, but some ideas for possible value: Poland v Slovakia 16.00 Being played in Austria Under 2.5 goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes Two pretty defensive teams. I saw Poland defeat Lativa 1-0 a few days ago and I remember Slovakia were were defensive in the World Cup 2010. Four out both team's last five games has been under 2.5 - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/05/26/world/friendlies/poland/slovakia/1247580/ Not as good as above, but again looking reasonable value: Ireland v Bosnia 15.00 Under 2.5 goals @ 1.67 Bet 365 Both teams seem pretty defensive and most of their recent games have been under 2.5. Ireland have had a lot of clean sheets under Trappatoni - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/05/26/world/friendlies/ireland-republic/bosnia-herzegovina/1253773/ Was also thinking about unders in Norway v England (under 2.5 is 1.8 with Ladbrokes) as both managers seem to be defensive, but less confident, and I think England could score a few if they get an early lead.

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Lay Brazil @ 1.97 This is an understrength Brazil (confirmed team): http://www.sambafoot.com/en/news/31689_brazil_announce_side_to_take_on_denmark.html I think they're a bit underpriced for a second side, and the proper team is hardly turning up trees under Menezes. I read there'll be 40,000 Danes in Germany for this. Not sure about that, but Denmark are a strong team at the moment, a possible Euro 2012 darkhorse, and they can get a draw here (Denmark team): 1 Thomas Sorensen 2 Christian Poulsen 3 Simon Kjaer 4 Daniel Agger 5 Simon Busk Poulsen 8 Christian Eriksen 9 Michael Krohn-Dehli 11 Nicklas Bendtner 13 Daniel Wass 14 Lasse Schöne 17 Niki Zimling

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Lay Brazil @ 1.97 This is an understrength Brazil (confirmed team): http://www.sambafoot.com/en/news/31689_brazil_announce_side_to_take_on_denmark.html I think they're a bit underpriced for a second side, and the proper team is hardly turning up trees under Menezes. I read there'll be 40,000 Danes in Germany for this. Not sure about that, but Denmark are a strong team at the moment, a possible Euro 2012 darkhorse, and they can get a draw here (Denmark team): 1 Thomas Sorensen 2 Christian Poulsen 3 Simon Kjaer 4 Daniel Agger 5 Simon Busk Poulsen 8 Christian Eriksen 9 Michael Krohn-Dehli 11 Nicklas Bendtner 13 Daniel Wass 14 Lasse Schöne 17 Niki Zimling

Horrendous stuff from the Danes, 3-0, and not even half time. First one a howler from Sorenson, then an own goal, after gifting possession. Third a replica of the second, only no own goal. Sorenson subbed shortly after the second went in. Considered a decent stake on an AH + 2 to ''play it safe'', so grateful I chose a small lay :lol

[HastGill1]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Mexico vs Wales Mexico @ 1.57 (Coral) Reports suggest Mexico will be playing a strong team, and their squad looks pretty much full strength. Hernandez will not be playing at the Olympics but he's in the squad for Mexico's three friendlies in upcoming weeks. Meanwhile, Bale, Vaughan, Ledley and Hennessey will be playing no part for Wales; neither will Collins. Wales have been very poor in recent years with the notable exception of the fantastic run they had under Gary Speed, in which their performances suggested they could be serious contenders at international level. It's hard to say if this will continue under Coleman, but his managerial record doesn't really inspire too much confidence and if you look at Wales' long-term form this is the sort of game they normally struggle in. The withdrawals they suffered for "injuries" has been a problem which has dogged Wales for some time and is bound to have a negative effect on the mentality of the remaining players; see this blog http://www.markpitman1.com/2012/05/21/coleman-maximum-mexico/. Although it could be said that Bellamy's decision to stay on during WC qualifying would have had the opposite effect. Mexico's form is largely good in the last two years. They got the better of a decent USA side in the CONCACAF Cup, and in winning the competition can claim to be the best side in the region. They struggled in the Copa America, but it was the CONCACAF which was their priority and an U23 side was sent to Argentina for that tournament. Not all their friendly results have been good but in general they tend to take them seriously and boast some good results, victories over Serbia, Chile, Venezuela, Bosnia and a draw with Spain in the last couple of years. The game is played in New Jersey, US, and so I would strongly imagine there will be a strong Mexican support there. Coral's price of 1.57 is a standout one and better than the odds offered by Betfair (1.55 to back); I think they are being a little generous here and so have backed Mexico, though not with large stakes.

All over this, kind of fixture I love! :clap..worth noting the weather in New Jersey is likely to be 80-90 degrees tomorrow, might not play a huge factor but certainly suits the Mexicans more.

[Capricorno]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Ireland WIN @ 2.02 with Pinny (Im using Centrebet - slightly lower) 4 unit play I see this as a good time to 'pounce' on Ireland. A lot of the 'sharp' money has been on Bosnia and odds have shifted. I know the Bosnian team inside our and I disagree with this. Bosnia is missing their captain in defense- Emir Spahic (Seville), their left back (Sasha Papac- Rangers Glasgow) and their right back. Also Medunjanin is in bad form, as well as Misimovic and Rahimic is 35yrs +. Beyond that the Irish will take this match much more serious, whereas Bosnia is more focused on Mexico when 25000+ Bosnian fans will attend the game in Chicago.

Cash this easy WIN. Although, the 1-0 win for Ireland suggests a hard fought win, this is not true. Ireland could have easily won 3-0 if it wasn't for the work of Bosnian keeper- Begovic (Stoke City). As expected the Bosnian defense was totally uncoordinated and looked especially lost during corners and other set pieces giving Ireland 4-5 one on one opportunities. Bosnian striker duo Dzeko and Ibisevic also looked out of form and shape producing only 1 real chance the whole game by Alispahic of Dinamo Zagreb. All up a nice bet and I hope a few of you guys followed. :D I have an especially good bet for Mexico vs Bosnia once odds are released.

[AlanJenkins2]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Mexico are due to face Brazil 3 days after the Bosnia game.Won't they save their best players for that one ?

[kal_Dhillon]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Going to have a flutter on a direct iran win.Albania are missing a few regulars such as absentees Lala and Duro will be heavily missed from midfield, not to mention pacey Salihi up front and defenders Curri and Vangjeli.Iran are a totally different type of opponent to Qatar whom the beat 2-1.Carlos Queiroz has improved iran's attacking fortunes & i expect them to get a result here as they have plenty of experience with players such as karimi & nekounam. Iran @ 2.15 7/10

[MPLouis]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

I have an especially good bet for Mexico vs Bosnia once odds are released.

Looking forward to that. Although I don't know how you know it's an 'especially good bet' without knowing the odds?

[Capricorno]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Looking forward to that. Although I don't know how you know it's an 'especially good bet' without knowing the odds?

well I do not know the odds, but I assume the bookies will be basing their odds on last years 2-0 Mexico win and recent form. Either way I expect a lot of the value to be on Bosnia and I believe the OVERS will be the play. The 2-0 of last year could have easily ended being a 5+ goal game. I will see closer to the date and a lot will depend on Spahic and Salihovic's fitness/return + Mexican game tonight. The Bosnian's in front of 20,000+ of their fans will be giving it their all. They definetly have the quality to cause an upset against Mexico. If their defenders return.. this will allow their LB- Lulic (Lazio Rome) to be moved as LWF and they will be playing with far more width and expect them to have equal posession as Mexico. They will at least get a draw in that game. Im hoping for them to be 4.5 + for the win. I will be scouting some soccer news + Mexican/Bosnia media for more info on this game.. will post a detailed write up closer to the game/release of odds.

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Looking forward to that. Although I don't know how you know it's an 'especially good bet' without knowing the odds?

well I do not know the odds, but I assume the bookies will be basing their odds on last years 2-0 Mexico win and recent form. Either way I expect a lot of the value to be on Bosnia and I believe the OVERS will be the play. The 2-0 of last year could have easily ended being a 5+ goal game. I will see closer to the date and a lot will depend on Spahic and Salihovic's fitness/return + Mexican game tonight. The Bosnian's in front of 20,000+ of their fans will be giving it their all. They definetly have the quality to cause an upset against Mexico. If their defenders return.. this will allow their LB- Lulic (Lazio Rome) to be moved as LWF and they will be playing with far more width and expect them to have equal posession as Mexico. They will at least get a draw in that game. Im hoping for them to be 4.5 + for the win. I will be scouting some soccer news + Mexican/Bosnia media for more info on this game.. will post a detailed write up closer to the game/release of odds.

:moon

[pg_yid]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Not strongly recommended, but some ideas for possible value: Poland v Slovakia 16.00 Being played in Austria Under 2.5 goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes Two pretty defensive teams. I saw Poland defeat Lativa 1-0 a few days ago and I remember Slovakia were were defensive in the World Cup 2010. Four out both team's last five games has been under 2.5 - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/05/26/world/friendlies/poland/slovakia/1247580/ Not as good as above, but again looking reasonable value: Ireland v Bosnia 15.00 Under 2.5 goals @ 1.67 Bet 365 Both teams seem pretty defensive and most of their recent games have been under 2.5. Ireland have had a lot of clean sheets under Trappatoni - http://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2012/05/26/world/friendlies/ireland-republic/bosnia-herzegovina/1253773/ Was also thinking about unders in Norway v England (under 2.5 is 1.8 with Ladbrokes) as both managers seem to be defensive, but less confident, and I think England could score a few if they get an early lead.

These were good picks. Stupidly, I never considered these games for unders, and by the time I read your post it was too late.

[Ben Fourie]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Offensive lineup tonight. Mandanda – Debuchy, Rami, Mexès, Evra – Cabaye, Nasri, Gourcuff – Ménez, Benzema, Ben Arfa. In this team, there is probably one or two players who will not go to Euro. France has a lot of problems for to score, only 15 goals scored last 10. But tonight I expect a good performance by France, Iceland has a really poor defence, especially away. Montenegro 2-1 Iceland Japan 3-1 Iceland Portugal 5-3 Iceland Iceland 1-0 Cyprus Norway 1-0 Iceland Hungary 4-0 Iceland Iceland 0-2 Denmark Cyprus 0-0 Iceland Israel 3-2 Iceland Iceland 1-3 Portugal Denmark 1-0 Iceland Iceland 1-2 Norway French players should be very motivated, especially players who are not sure to be in the squad for Euro. Weather is good, if Iceland doesn't play like Chelsea, France should be able to score at least 3 goals tonight. France -1,5 @ 1.73 - 3U Over 3 @ 2.16 - 3U

[HastGill1]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Mexico vs Wales Mexico @ 1.57 (Coral)

Thanks for the tip mate, 2-0 didn't really reflect the Mexicans dominance. Wales were largely hopeless and carried little threat, Mexico missed a host of chances but it was a pretty decent display considering they had a few younger players in there..possibly missed an opportunity to make some serious cash with this one, wasn't bold enough, but then you always think like that after the winners don't you? Nice end to the weekend.

[pg_yid]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Thanks for the tip mate' date=' 2-0 didn't really reflect the Mexicans dominance. Wales were largely hopeless and carried little threat, Mexico missed a host of chances but it was a pretty decent display considering they had a few younger players in there..possibly missed an opportunity to make some serious cash with this one, wasn't bold enough, but then you always think like that after the winners don't you? Nice end to the weekend.[/quote'] Yeah I know what you mean, you DO always think like that after the winners! I didn't make serious cash on it either (was a 3/10 for me), however I think we were right to keep stakes low for a friendly as they are unpredictable; look at Portugal and Holland yesterday.

[pg_yid]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Angola vs Macedonia Under 2.5 @ 1.79 (188bet) This game is to be played in Portugal, where Angola will have more support due to Angolans living in Portugal, Angola being a former Portuguese colony. The two teams seem of a similar standard to me, and I can't really see why Angola are favourites except for the fact they will have more fans there (how many exactly I'm unsure). Angola are higher in the FIFA rankings but that doesn't mean much really, as the standard of the opposition they face is generally lower and so they win more games. The main reason for my bet is that if you look at the last twenty games of both teams, in both cases approximately 66% of their games have gone under. That, plus the fact it is a friendly, a bit of a strange match-up and not too likely to be a very competitive game. Macedonia just played out a 0-0 draw with Portugal where they showed their strengths; a strong defence and good organisation. Judging by reports Pandev had a poor game up front but I'd imagine he didn't get much support. John Toshack is the Macedonia manager, he has plenty of experience and seems to be doing a good job of making them a resiliant, hard to beat side, which is their best way of improving at this level. I'll admit I don't know that much about either side, but I don't think the bookies do either. Considering the amount of unders games both teams have been involved in, unders seems too a high a price here, though obviously not a game for high stakes.

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Yeah, good call on Mexico. I kind of liked them myself, and saw very little threat in Wales (I think Coleman is a bad coach) but the absence of Hernandez and inclusion of some inexperienced players put me off. Anybody have any info on the Ukraine tomorrow? Estonia'll be rotating again, and the AH -1 is 1.55, which isn't too bad.

[RedDevil92]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Germany-Israel AH-2 @1,91 6/10 pinnacle Germany lost 3-5 in a pathetic way against Switzerland. Coach Löw had to test a lot as all 8 players from Bayern Munich just arrived on saturday and didn't participate in this match. Now, all 8 players are available. Unfit players such as Mertesacker, Gotze and Klose could be left out when the final selections will be made on wednesday. The entire team was poor against Switzerland. I expect a totally different play by the hosts. I expect Gomez, Schweinsteiger and Neuer to step in and others to play much better than on saturday. They will strike back Israel don't have a good squad at all. I expect them to get quite a few goals. All in all, those teams divide many levels. My call 4-1.

[MPLouis]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Germany-Israel AH-2 @1' date=91 6/10 pinnacle Germany lost 3-5 in a pathetic way against Switzerland. Coach Löw had to test a lot as all 8 players from Bayern Munich just arrived on saturday and didn't participate in this match. Now, all 8 players are available. Unfit players such as Mertesacker, Gotze and Klose could be left out when the final selections will be made on wednesday. The entire team was poor against Switzerland. I expect a totally different play by the hosts. I expect Gomez, Schweinsteiger and Neuer to step in and others to play much better than on saturday. They will strike back Israel don't have a good squad at all. I expect them to get quite a few goals. All in all, those teams divide many levels. My call 4-1.

Israel only lost 2-1 to the Czech Republic in Austria on Saturday so are they that bad?

[RedDevil92]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Yes, they are. Czech Republic are also bad in my eyes. They are far away from that team they have been a couple of years ago. Germany is one of the main favourites to win the EURO 2012, deserved.

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Yes' date=' they are. Czech Republic are also bad in my eyes. They are far away from that team they have been a couple of years ago. Germany is one of the main favourites to win the EURO 2012, deserved.[/quote'] I don't believe Israel are that bad, they have some good players, and did okay in the qualifiers. I think the main focus is Germany. That 3-5 hasn't gone unoticed around europe, and I'm sure the Germans will want to make a statement, and help player morale. Ditto Portugal and Holland in their coming fixtures.

[RedDevil92]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

I don't believe Israel are that bad, they have some good players, and did okay in the qualifiers. I think the main focus is Germany. That 3-5 hasn't gone unoticed around europe, and I'm sure the Germans will want to make a statement, and help player morale. Ditto Portugal and Holland in their coming fixtures.

I fancy Germany to make a statement as well. In comparison to Germany, Israel is bad.

[HastGill1]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Italy v Luxembourg This is an obvious 'confidence boost' game for Italy, they haven't actually announced their 23 man squad at the minute and I'm not sure if they do prior to tomorrows match or after, either way I am confident they can win this one. Obviously looked first at handicap prices, -1EH is 1.3 best price which isn't as bad as I expected but I've passed it over as I saw the clean sheet odds for Italy were 1.44 which I think is very likely to come in. Neither side has played together in a match for a few months now, and while I don't expect it to be a 100mph need to win 6-0 game, Italy will have at least 70-80% of the possession and I doubt, having watched them quite a lot for various bets, if Luxembourg will manage more than 2 or 3 shots on or off target. This might seem like over confidence and a bit foolhardy considering some of the performances we have seen from the minnows over the last few days but Luxembourg are far worse going forward than Bulgaria or Iceland. If you look at recent stats they have scored 1 goal in their last 6 away games, they are certainly worse away than at home, and with this being played in Parma rather than a neutral country I would give them even less chance of coming away with a goal. This is an Italy team that will be very functional at the Euro's, a back 5 built on the brilliant Juventus defense that performed so well this season and they don't have a huge amount of creativity in the midfield and little pace in wide areas of the midfield compared with other sides, I can see them being involved in a few under 2.5 games during the tournament and I think any success will be built upon a strong rearguard rather than an unstoppable attack. Luxembourg lost their last 2 away games 5-0 against Portugal and Bosnia and while I don't think Italy will win by that big a margin I can see 2, 3 or possibly 4-0. With this bet though I don't care if it finishes 0-0. Surprised bet365 have priced it up like this considering they normally set the bar for other sites and even their 'to win to nil' is the same price so you cover 0-0 for free this way, best price for clean sheet elsewhere is 1.36. Italy Clean Sheet - 1.44 - bet365 - 20 points

[markvighan]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 [h=2]Ukraine - Estonia[/h]Estonia proved to be a capable team to score to Croatia, my last bet that was intended to get Croatia-Estonia to scoreless game has failed, but I also see value in this game - Ukraine is clear favorite here, but as friendlies go - this draw should not see odds greater than 4.0 This being said - there is not much more arguments for defending draw here except for the odds. Estonia can surprise here, definitely, but this game has no motivation for Estonia,only motivation can be for them to return with at least one game not lost. as for other tips - if betting over/under maybe over would be a noce bet - even if my prediction goes down the toilet at least to take some money out. Draw

[pg_yid]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Italy v Luxembourg This is an obvious 'confidence boost' game for Italy, they haven't actually announced their 23 man squad at the minute and I'm not sure if they do prior to tomorrows match or after, either way I am confident they can win this one. Obviously looked first at handicap prices, -1EH is 1.3 best price which isn't as bad as I expected but I've passed it over as I saw the clean sheet odds for Italy were 1.44 which I think is very likely to come in. Neither side has played together in a match for a few months now, and while I don't expect it to be a 100mph need to win 6-0 game, Italy will have at least 70-80% of the possession and I doubt, having watched them quite a lot for various bets, if Luxembourg will manage more than 2 or 3 shots on or off target. This might seem like over confidence and a bit foolhardy considering some of the performances we have seen from the minnows over the last few days but Luxembourg are far worse going forward than Bulgaria or Iceland. If you look at recent stats they have scored 1 goal in their last 6 away games, they are certainly worse away than at home, and with this being played in Parma rather than a neutral country I would give them even less chance of coming away with a goal. This is an Italy team that will be very functional at the Euro's, a back 5 built on the brilliant Juventus defense that performed so well this season and they don't have a huge amount of creativity in the midfield and little pace in wide areas of the midfield compared with other sides, I can see them being involved in a few under 2.5 games during the tournament and I think any success will be built upon a strong rearguard rather than an unstoppable attack. Luxembourg lost their last 2 away games 5-0 against Portugal and Bosnia and while I don't think Italy will win by that big a margin I can see 2, 3 or possibly 4-0. With this bet though I don't care if it finishes 0-0. Surprised bet365 have priced it up like this considering they normally set the bar for other sites and even their 'to win to nil' is the same price so you cover 0-0 for free this way, best price for clean sheet elsewhere is 1.36. Italy Clean Sheet - 1.44 - bet365 - 20 points

Agree with this. In the last twelve games that Luxembourg have played against sides with a decent defence, they have only scored in two of them. And most of those sides' defences will not have been as good as Italy's. On the other hand, the fact that it is a friendly makes a Luxembourg goal more likely. Even so, odds of 1.44 represent a 69.4% chance and I'd say the chances of an Italy clean sheet would be nearer 75% (I'd say 80% if it was a competitive game). It's a bit of a strange match up really, as you'd think Italy would want a more competitive game to prepare for the Euros with. The odds for an Italy win were 1.10 at one point with Bwin, which I took with large stakes as it was too big, I make Italy a 1.05 shot even though Luxembourg have improved. Didn't post it on here as that sort of bet isn't normally too popular on here, also the odds changed soon after. I'd be very surprised if Italy don't win this though if they don't it will most likely be 0-0.