MPLouis Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Friday 24th February 2012 10.20 Japan v Iceland Japan have steadily improved in the last few years and are becoming very hard to beat - and score against. Japan's last 6 home games: Japan 0 Peru 0 Japan 0 Czech Republic 0 Japan 3 South Korea 0 Japan 1 North Korea 0 Japan 1 Vietnam 0 Japan 8 Tajikistan 0 http://uk.soccerway.com/teams/japan/japan/ Vietnam and Tajikstan are fairly lowly-rated, but the other four countries are solid opponents. Iceland's last 5 away games: Israel 3 Iceland 2 Cyprus 0 Iceland 0 Hungary 4 Iceland 0 Norway 1 Iceland 0 Portugal 5 Iceland 3 http://uk.soccerway.com/teams/iceland/iceland/ Scoring three in Portugal was an achievement, but it could perhaps be seen as the exception from the norm. They scored two against Israel, but failed to score against Cyprus, Hungary and Norway. I think Iceland's chances of scoring in Japan are perhaps 33%, so the odds of a Japan clean sheet should be around 1.5, but Paddy Power are currently offering 2.0 which I think is too high, and therefore good value - Iceland to score no goals 2.0 Paddy Power (Also available at Betfair at the same odds, but the value is less after taking Betfair commission into account) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted February 23, 2012 Share Posted February 23, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Both teams are playing their B sides, according to this article http://www.goal.com/en-india/match/77125/japan-vs-iceland/preview. I was interested in taking this bet but now it seems a little risky. It appears it will be players from the Japanese league against players from the Icelandic league, of which the J-league is probably stronger, but I'm not sure I would count on them keeping a clean sheet. Unders seems tempting to me though as these sorts of games tend to be underish...still quite risky though as it's hard to judge either side very accurately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted February 24, 2012 Share Posted February 24, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 ^ Unders is 2.44 currently on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Both teams are playing their B sides' date=' according to this article [url']http://www.goal.com/en-india/match/77125/japan-vs-iceland/preview. I was interested in taking this bet but now it seems a little risky. It appears it will be players from the Japanese league against players from the Icelandic league, of which the J-league is probably stronger, but I'm not sure I would count on them keeping a clean sheet. Unders seems tempting to me though as these sorts of games tend to be underish...still quite risky though as it's hard to judge either side very accurately. Thanks for that pg-yld. Very useful info. It does introduce an extra element of risk, although it might work out in Japan's favour because the J-League is far superior to the Iceland league. Still think a Japan clean sheet is likely, but it's more risky. If it's an experimental game, you wonder whether the managers will view the performance as more important than the result - and this might mean the Japan manager is less worried about keeping a clean sheet. I think I will be watching the game (as it seems to be available online). I agree unders looks good value at 2.44. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Here are more details of the Japan squad: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_national_football_team#Current_squad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted February 24, 2012 Author Share Posted February 24, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Friday 24th February 2012 10.20 Japan v Iceland Japan have steadily improved in the last few years and are becoming very hard to beat - and score against. Japan's last 6 home games: Japan 0 Peru 0 Japan 0 Czech Republic 0 Japan 3 South Korea 0 Japan 1 North Korea 0 Japan 1 Vietnam 0 Japan 8 Tajikistan 0 http://uk.soccerway.com/teams/japan/japan/ Vietnam and Tajikstan are fairly lowly-rated, but the other four countries are solid opponents. Iceland's last 5 away games: Israel 3 Iceland 2 Cyprus 0 Iceland 0 Hungary 4 Iceland 0 Norway 1 Iceland 0 Portugal 5 Iceland 3 http://uk.soccerway.com/teams/iceland/iceland/ Scoring three in Portugal was an achievement, but it could perhaps be seen as the exception from the norm. They scored two against Israel, but failed to score against Cyprus, Hungary and Norway. I think Iceland's chances of scoring in Japan are perhaps 33%, so the odds of a Japan clean sheet should be around 1.5, but Paddy Power are currently offering 2.0 which I think is too high, and therefore good value - Iceland to score no goals 2.0 Paddy Power (Also available at Betfair at the same odds, but the value is less after taking Betfair commission into account) Result: Japan 3 Iceland 1 Bet lost I saw a lot of the game. Japan deserved to win, but they were far less comfortable than I initially expected. They looked vulnerable to high balls and the Japanese goalkeeper repeatedly flapped at crosses. Iceland were the better team in the second half, winning a lot of corners and going close several times. They eventually scored from a penalty in added time. This was a poor value bet - it might have been good value if it had been Japan's first choice team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 International Friendlies Monday 27th February to Thursday 1st March 2012 [TABLE=class: couponTable] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Monday 27 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Azerbaijan v India (13:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.41[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.96 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Egypt v Kenya (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.05[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.05[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]270.48 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Tuesday 28 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Armenia v Serbia (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.83 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Bosnia-Herzegovina v Brazil (19:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 10.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.44[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]98.75 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Wednesday 29 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] New Zealand v Jamaica (06:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]109.35 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Hong Kong v Chinese Taipei (12:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.02[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.02[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]276.08 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Azerbaijan v Palestine (13:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.02[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.02[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]276.08 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Cyprus v Serbia (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.02[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.02[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]276.08 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Georgia v Albania (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.66[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.88 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Latvia v Kazakhstan (14:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.84[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.10 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Moldova v Belarus (15:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.73 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Armenia v Canada (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.02[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.02[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]276.08 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Hungary v Bulgaria (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.56 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Israel v Ukraine (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.62[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.12 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Montenegro v Iceland (17:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.48[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]103.57 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Greece v Belgium (18:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.36[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.45[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Luxembourg v FYR Macedonia (18:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7.37[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.57[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.26 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Tunisia v Peru (18:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.38[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]106.35 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Malta v Liechtenstein (18:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.1[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.85[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.16 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Romania v Uruguay (18:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.85[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.73 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Turkey v Slovakia (18:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.72[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.24 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] South Africa v Senegal (18:35 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.05[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.51[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]107.57 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Denmark v Russia (18:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.56[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.1[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.09 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Morocco v Burkina Faso (19:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.33[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]108.04 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Austria v Finland (19:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.78[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.91 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Croatia v Sweden (19:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.14[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.03 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Switzerland v Argentina (19:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.9[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.9[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.57 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Germany v France (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.65[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.34 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Italy v USA (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.38 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Northern Ireland v Norway (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.4[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.38 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Poland v Portugal (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.05[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.41 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Republic of Ireland v Czech Republic (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.42[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.48 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Slovenia v Scotland (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]102.33 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Wales v Costa Rica (19:45 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.19 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] England v Netherlands (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.88[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]100.29 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Spain v Venezuela (20:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.16[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 9.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 26[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]99.98 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Bolivia v Cuba (23:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.6[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 5.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]112.63 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Paraguay v Panama (23:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.44[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.33[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 8[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]105.02 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TH][/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn]Thursday 1 March 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Chile v Ghana (00:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.94[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.79 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Ecuador v Honduras (00:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.57[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.76[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]104.58 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row0] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] Mexico v Colombia (01:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 1.93[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 4.7[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]101.66 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=colspan: 6][/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn] El Salvador v Estonia (03:30 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.2[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 3.25[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd] 2.75[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp]112.59 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Georgia vs Albania Under 2.5 @ 1.87 (Bwin) Both sides like to play defensively. Since the start of 2009, 59% of Georgia's games have gone under, and 75% of Albania's games have gone under. In games against similarly defensive sides, the percentage is even higher. In games I've earmarked as similar clashes to this one, Georgia have been 68% under (again since 2009) and Albania have been 88% under. For instance, Georgia's last five games against similar opposition read: Georgia 2 Moldova 0 (friendly) Malta 1 Georgia 1 (Euro 2012 qualifying) Georgia 0 Lativa 1 (euros again) Georgia 1 Malta 0 (euros) Moldova 0 Georgia 0 (friendly) All this makes the 1.87, for which the implied probabilty is 53%, seem very enticing. Albania have a new manager, but he is Italian and from what I've read on wiki he has a reputation for trying to save teams from relegation, so playing his first game away from home I doubt he will change the normal defensive tactics Albania pursue. I've not seen the Georgia squad yet but the Albania squad seems largely as expected to me, a lot of experienced international players in their but the strikers are mainly young and inexperienced, which should help this bet. Overall it's a bet I've chosen to place mainly from the stats and from watching teams like this play, although it is a friendly which may encourage some teams to experiment and attack more, I doubt it will in this case; these teams only really have one way of playing and it doesn't really change much whether it's a friendly or a competitive game in my experience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Mustafa, if you're reading this what is your opinion on Azerbaijan vs India? I have watched India before and they seem a poor side at this level, I should think the Azeris should win this one easily although the result against Singapore, albeit against a better side, perhaps shows that they struggle when they are favourites, as they are used to being the underdog and playing on the counter attack. Also they have another game coming up against Palestine so may be rotating the squad a fair bit. Would be interested in your opinion and to know how seriously they're taking these friendlies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Luxembourg vs FYR Macedonia Under 2.5 @ 1.9 (Paddy Power) Another value unders pick here. The bookies consistently underestimate Luxembourg and price their opponents too low, and it is happening again here. As a result the unders seems to be priced too high quite often. Luxembourg are a solid side who don't get beaten by much on their own patch nowadays. If anyone is likely to cause this game to go overs it is as likely to be the Luxembourgians themselves, as they did when they beat Albania 2-1 in Euro qualifying recently, as their opponents. I don't think this will happen though, as Macedonia have a good, experienced manager in John Toshack, and I fancy them to be organised at the back here. I watched their last game against Albania and it finished 0-0, with neither side creating much. Macedonia should have Pandev playing in this one, as I recall he missed that game, so they will be more dangerous, but I still reckon this match will be a case of two defensive sides playing out an unders result. Luxembourg have 53% unders and Macedonia have 65% unders since the start of 2009. In games I've earmarked as similar clashes in that timescale, Luxembourg are 65% unders and Macedonia are 80% unders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Yet another unders tip...! Malta vs Liechtenstein Under 2.5 @ 1.9 (Paddy Power) Both these teams really struggle to find the net, but their defences are reasonably reliable. Malta beat Liechtenstein 7-1 a few years ago, which may explain the price here, but the visitors have improved a lot in that time. In the last qualifying they were defeated narrowly by Scotland twice and they managed a draw and a win versus Lithuania, who are themselves a better side than Malta. From what I've watched of the two sides, Malta perhaps have the edge as they seem the quicker and fitter of the two sides, but there is not too much between them, and in fact Liech are higher in the FIFA rankings. If you look at similar ties played out by the two sides in recent years, there is a lot of low scoring games and I think we will see another one in Malta on Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orleans Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 International Friendlies Germany against France Pick over 2 at Pinnacle at 1,535 In last 7 matches playing Germany at home only one time vs Italy match ended with 2 goals, others goes by 3-5. At home field Germany attacks a lot, in other hand France have powerful forwards. There should be 3-4 goals. For over 2,5 odds are 2,1-2,2 I think it's good choice too. But as usual I will go for more pessimistic one, because Philipp Lahm, Schweinsteiger, Podolski, Mertesacker, Benzema, Remy would not play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFC5X Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Bosnia v Brazil - Both teams to score - EVNS @ Will Hill. Safet Susic has claimed he will play with 2 up-front which will probably mean he's thinking of playing an attacking game. Also the second striker will mean that Bosnia play 3 at the back which will make it easier for Brazil to get a goal. I ain't going to bet on this until the starting XI is released and I reccomend anyone else do the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McNasara Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Begović, Jahić, Spahić, Papac, Salihović, Medunjanin, Rahimić, Misimović, Ibišević, Pjanić, Džeko Julio César, Alves, Luiz, Silva, Marcelo, Sandro, Fernandinho, Hernanes, Ronaldinho, Neymar, Leandro Damião Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted February 28, 2012 Author Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Georgia vs Albania Under 2.5 @ 1.87 (Bwin) Both sides like to play defensively. Since the start of 2009, 59% of Georgia's games have gone under, and 75% of Albania's games have gone under. In games against similarly defensive sides, the percentage is even higher. In games I've earmarked as similar clashes to this one, Georgia have been 68% under (again since 2009) and Albania have been 88% under. For instance, Georgia's last five games against similar opposition read: Georgia 2 Moldova 0 (friendly) Malta 1 Georgia 1 (Euro 2012 qualifying) Georgia 0 Lativa 1 (euros again) Georgia 1 Malta 0 (euros) Moldova 0 Georgia 0 (friendly) All this makes the 1.87, for which the implied probabilty is 53%, seem very enticing. Albania have a new manager, but he is Italian and from what I've read on wiki he has a reputation for trying to save teams from relegation, so playing his first game away from home I doubt he will change the normal defensive tactics Albania pursue. I've not seen the Georgia squad yet but the Albania squad seems largely as expected to me, a lot of experienced international players in their but the strikers are mainly young and inexperienced, which should help this bet. Overall it's a bet I've chosen to place mainly from the stats and from watching teams like this play, although it is a friendly which may encourage some teams to experiment and attack more, I doubt it will in this case; these teams only really have one way of playing and it doesn't really change much whether it's a friendly or a competitive game in my experience. Odds have been cut a little. 1.8 with Paddy Power is currently the best available, still looks good value I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LFC5X Posted February 28, 2012 Share Posted February 28, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Bosnia v Brazil - Both teams to score - EVNS @ Will Hill. Safet Susic has claimed he will play with 2 up-front which will probably mean he's thinking of playing an attacking game. Also the second striker will mean that Bosnia play 3 at the back which will make it easier for Brazil to get a goal. I ain't going to bet on this until the starting XI is released and I reccomend anyone else do the same. That didn't take long :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNC Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 I wrote this about Switzerland - Argentina at my website: Argentina goes to Switzerland today to play its first match of 2012, a year where some important World Cup qualifiers games will be played. Coach Alejandro Sabella will be on Argentina's bench for the 9th time since he replaced Sergio Batista after last Copa America fiasco, with a record of 4 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats. The expected starting lineup for Argentina, using a classic 4-4-2 formation is: Sergio Romero (Sampdoria); Hugo Campagnaro (Napoli), Ezequiel Garay (Benfica), Federico Fernández (Napoli), Pablo Zabaleta (Manchester City); Jose Sosa (Methalist Karkiv), Javier Mascherano (Barcelona), Rodrigo Braña (Estudiantes), Maxi RodrÃÂguez (Liverpool); Lionel Messi (Barcelona), Sergio Agüero (Manchester City). The other called players are: Gonzalo HiguaÃÂn (Real Madrid), Daniel Diaz (Getafe), Fernando Gago (Roma), Erik Lamela (Roma), Rodrigo Palacio (Genoa), Luciano Monzón (Nice), Mariano Andújar (Estudiantes), Eduardo Salvio (Atlético de Madrid). Angel Di Maria (Real Madrid) and Marcos Rojo (Spartak Moscow) were called but are not available due to injures. It's obvious that Sabella is looking to renew Argentina's defense, the team's weakest point the last years, as he has called Campagnaro for the first time and will use Fernandez and Garay, two players with good potential but little international experience. Braña, as Fernandez and Sosa, have been coached by Sabella when he won Copa Libertadores and a Argentine league championship with Estudiantes so it's not surprise that he called them and will use them in the starting lineup. On paper it looks like defensive minded team that will depend on Jose Sosa having a good day to play as the link between midfield and Messi/Aguero, but there are enough options on the bench to make it more offensive if needed. The quality difference between both teams is obvious, but Argentina has been so disappointing the last few years despite having a team with an enormous potential, that the game could be more open than expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McNasara Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 I don't bet on friendly matches, but here's some information for games which will play in "my area". ;) Montenegro - Iceland Coach Brnovic announced offensive play of Montenegro, although he will be without some defensive regulars (Peković, BaÅ¡a, Pavićević). The best striker Vucinic is doubtful, but probably will take part tonight. Iceland have a new coach, experienced Swede Lars Lagerback. He already had a match with B team against Japan (1:3), 5 days ago. But against Montenegro will play best players of Iceland. Croatia - Sweden Another very interesting match on the Balkans. Both teams have qualified for the European Championship, so this is an opportunity for testing before the big competition. Slaven Bilic has no problems before this meeting and most trusts in Tottenham midfield due, Modric and Kranjcar. On the other hand, Ibrahimovic is key player for away side, but Guidetti (top scorer of Feyenoord) will get a chance to play in attack, but their key defender Majstorovic (Celtic) is out. Slovenia v Scotland This is the 2nd game for home coach Stojanovic. Slovenians will have great support from fans tonight, but will be significantly weakened in offense. Two best strikers Matavz and Ljubijankic are out. Scottish coach Levein picked Slovenia for friendly match, because they're in group for WC with Serbia and Croatia. There would be 3 debutants and even 7 players who have less than 10 NT appearances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOTTI3 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Germany vs. France = over (2.05) bet365 stake 5/10 Preview: Germany: Injured: Mario Götze (midfielder 4/1), Philipp Lahm (defender 10/0), Sven Bender (midfielder 0/0), For Mertesacke (defender 7/0) r, Lukas Podolski (striker 9/3), Bastian Schweinsteiger (midfielder 5/1). France: Injured: Lass Diarra (midfielder 0/0), Karim Benzema (striker 7/3), Loic Remy (striker 7/2), Vassiriki Abou Diaby (midfielder 4/0), Cisse (striker 1/0), Gomis (striker 5/2), Gourcuff (midfielder 3/3), Sagna (defender 5/0), Kaboul (defender 2/0). Germany in recent years is undoubtedly one of the best teams in the world and are one of the favorites to win the European title. He qualified for the finals of the European brilliantly. In this game will have world-class absences, however, the technician sets the mindset is to give even in friendly matches every time. In contrast, France has qualified for the Europeans until the last day with much grief. Both teams play an attractive and effective football, so I expect an open game with lots of actions to goals as both teams play to win. Quote of the sign falling over a lot of books. Germany are unbeaten in 10 matches. France are unbeaten in 17 matches. France has not lost any of their last 8 away games. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOTTI3 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Moldovan vs Belarus = 2 (1.80) bet365 stake 6/10 Preview: Moldovan: absent: Alexandru Suvorov (striker 10/4), Eugeniu Cebotaru (midfielder 9/0), Alexandru Dedov (midfielder 0/0), Stanislav Ivanov (midfielder 2/0). Belarus: Injured: M. Zhavnerchik (midfielder 1/0), S. Kornilenko (striker 7/2). The match will be played on neutral ground in Turkey. The coach of Moldova said that this is a very important game, then saw that the visiting team is hard to beat Belarus expect the attacks to exploit the fast break, so this is a game played tactically very well in defense as the absences very important in the home team. Belarus is a very young team with great players but not players who are doing a lot of experience in the Russian league. In the end I think the visiting team can win the game. Quote of the sign 2 down on many books. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Europe Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Wales v Costa Rica just wondering if Costa Rica will really put up a fight against Wales given that it's a tribute to Gary Speed (RIP). Coleman is the new manager but old assistant Osian Roberts, whom the players have huge respect for, will be in charge for tonight. Craig Bellamy will be hugely motivated given that it could be his last ever game for Wales and he will be captain (plus he was good mates with Speed). The Welsh have 3 wins in a row vs 1 win in 6 for the Costa Ricans, who don't tend to travel well. On the downside, Ramsey, defender Hennessy and first choice keeper Myhill are injured but there is still a good squad to call from (i.e. defenders Collison, Gabbidon, midfielders like Bale, Ledley, Vaughan and strikers such as Vokes, Earnshaw & of course Bellamy. Wales @ 1.63 Betfair Hungary v Bulgaria Another team that don't travel well (especially to Hungary where they have 0 wins) is the Bulgarians. New coach Penev seems to want to build a new team. Tonight he'll be without the 2 Petrov boys from the Premiership. Also 3 of the 'old guard' (strikers Genkov, Rangelov and midfielder Georgiev) have been omitted. Berba still deciding if he wants to rejoin the national team. Hungary also miss 2 importants in Gera & striker Rudolf. However, they looked impressive throughout qualifying and I expect them to notch up a win against a youthful Bulgarian side. Hungary @ 1.88 Betfair I will take them in a multiple, 3 units @ 3.06 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KavkaZ Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Daniya v Rossiya You cant predict, you can try and you can follow your instincts do the best you can. I do follow my instincts thats all I have to go by because I do not have a greal deal of experience I dont have a great deal of knowledge Im excited by the business Im In and so far made me very happy. Most people have a dream whey they start do it. Now, you have a choice, your dreams will come true, all dreams will come true. Beautifull dreams... This week the European cups take a break, that would give the play the national teams. In preparation for Euro 2012, a number of participating teams hold friendly matches. In Copenhagen, Denmark's national team will take the Russian national team. Despite the fact that the match a friendly, coach of Russians said that the outcome of the match for the team is very important. Let analyze the shape of players teams and their chances for victory in this match starting with the home team. Denmark national football team. The Danes made their way to Euro 2012, winning their group. The team was among the contenders for the output, but still, it is believed the portuguese the favorites. In the last match of the qualifying round, meeting between these teams, Denmark beat the portuguese. In group B, but at the European Championship in 2012, Denmark again, waiting for the fight against Portugal. In addition to Denmark and Portugal in group B (many football experts believe that the four-group of death), also played the germans and dutch. So the Danes must be very well prepared, that would perform at Euro 2012 with dignity. Denmark has already held two friendly matches, after the completion stage of the qualifying matches. Among the contenders, very tough teams in Sweden and Finland, two wins. In this match against Russia, Denmark will also play to win, because the need to add confidence to their players. Russian National Football Team. After reaching the final of European Championship 2012, the Russians played a friendly match. In the game against the Greek national team was a draw 1:1. In that match Dick Advocaat has given to the team new players, which gave a chance to debut as soon the first minutes of the match. For the Russian national team winter season was very successful. Team leaders have left their old clubs, which had no match practice. The new teams will have a permanent place at the base, and keep playing. This is the case of Andrei Arshavin (Zenit Saint-Petersburg) , Pavel Pogrebnyak (english side Fulham), Roman Pavlyuchenko (Locomotiv Moscow) and Diniyar Bilyaletdinov (Spartak Moscow). By the way Pogrebnyak, in his game already found a good rhythm. For his new club, Fulham has scored two goals. In the last match Pogrebnyak brought londoners victory in a match against Queens Park Rangers scoring the only goal of the match. Outcome? I wont bet, not a single euro cent on other football games (except russian footbal leagues). I dont care who wins, I'll go out clubbing instead watching it. Not much time remains before the start of the Euro 2012 tournament. It is still a friendly game, and win one of the teams involved is really difficult to predict. The hosts have the advantage because are playing at home, but Russia have a good spirit of their main leaders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LLMB0611 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Croatia - Sweden Another very interesting match on the Balkans. Both teams have qualified for the European Championship, so this is an opportunity for testing before the big competition. Slaven Bilic has no problems before this meeting and most trusts in Tottenham midfield due, Modric and Kranjcar. On the other hand, Ibrahimovic is key player for away side, but Guidetti (top scorer of Feyenoord) will get a chance to play in attack, but their key defender Majstorovic (Celtic) is out. i read that Guidetti is also doubtful and probably won't play. he has some kind of knee injury, nothing serious but since it's a friendly the swedish coach doesn't won't to risk anything... but in my opinion sweden could get something out of this game. croatia hasn't been playing good in their last qualifying, on the other hand sweden was very good... will be an interesting game. i think maybe a dnb on sweden is worth a try... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orleans Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 International friendlies England against Netherlands Pick over 1.5-2 at Pinnacle at 1,52 Pick over 2 at 1,69 In these match England will go with 3 forwards- Sturrige, Welbeck, Young, Netherlands with Huntelaar, and attacking Midfielders Kuyt, Sneijder, Van Persie. I can't imagine game ending with one goal with such attacking players, there should about 3 goals over 1,5-2 looks for me really safe, over 2 with odds 1,69 also worth to try. Good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Postman Pat Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 As mentioned above ^^^^ Probably my sole bet of the night will be a back of Wales. Emotional night for the majority there, should be quite a large crowd, Bellamy as Captain & new coach to impress. I don't envisage Costa Rica being too up for spoiling the occasion, they can get the game over and continue on their shopping trip. Wales 1.64 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juniorrr Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Anyone have any team news on uruguay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Postman Pat Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Anyone have any team news on uruguay? http://www.tuttoscommesse24.it/sport/newscalcio/europa/amichevoli-nazionali-romania-uruguay-i-convocati/ squad news is all i could find. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
recklessrookie Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 England v Netherlands - Both teams to score - 1.95 @ Will Hill. 2 teams with good attacking players, and the pressure off with it being a friendly. I expect Stuart Pearce to want to make a statement in this game as he would love the national job full time, and the Netherlands are surely to good not to score. I'm expecting something like 2-2 so am quite happy to take BTS at these odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LLMB0611 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 i read that Guidetti is also doubtful and probably won't play. he has some kind of knee injury, nothing serious but since it's a friendly the swedish coach doesn't won't to risk anything... but in my opinion sweden could get something out of this game. croatia hasn't been playing good in their last qualifying, on the other hand sweden was very good... will be an interesting game. i think maybe a dnb on sweden is worth a try... easy win for sweden...horrible game from croatia... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
recklessrookie Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Re: International Friendlies > 2012 England v Netherlands - Both teams to score - 1.95 @ Will Hill. 2 teams with good attacking players, and the pressure off with it being a friendly. I expect Stuart Pearce to want to make a statement in this game as he would love the national job full time, and the Netherlands are surely to good not to score. I'm expecting something like 2-2 so am quite happy to take BTS at these odds. Looked like it was set to finish 2-0 to the Netherlands and then a Gary Cahill goal from a offside position brings it back to 2-1 with about 5 minutes left, and before you know it England peg it back to 2-2 injury time and im thinking I should have gone for exact scoreline haha only for the Netherlands to go and score again to win 3-2! :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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