International Friendlies > 2012

[MPLouis]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Not sure if it is better value really as its a different bet' date=' rather have 0-0 covered even if it is unlikely to happen, for the sake of 0.01.[/quote'] Poland clean sheet covers: Poland win to nil 0-0 Both to score NO covers: Poland win to nil 0-0 Andorra win to nil Both Teams to Score NO wins as long as both don't score, so does cover 0-0. Andorra win to nil extremely unlikely of course, but statistically Both Teams to Score NO at slightly better odds is better value ;)

[markvighan]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Austria - Ukraine I am surprised the odd for over 2.5 goals is 2.1, I expected 1.85 at the most. This friendlymatch between Austria und Ukraine will be played in Innsbruck/Austria and is one of two friendlies that will be plyed there by Austria. Austria have decent players with Janko, Junuzovic, Arnautovic, Alaba ... Harnik, Fuchs, two other good players, are injured... Ukraine are preparing for their homeeuro and the team did well in almost all their prepgames lastly beating Estonia 4:0. I like the young plyers of Ukraine that came up especially offensive midfielder Konoplyanka. He, Milevskiy, Voronin, Sheva and others, thre is lots of potential in the offense. I expect a match here with at least one score of each team and think chances are also good it is 3 or more in the end.

[HastGill1]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Fair enough, thought 'both to score - no' would mean that one team has to score, obviously I now know better :lol Latvia 2-0 after 17 mins, that bet looks fcuking doomed already..

[pg_yid]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 MPLouis & HastGill, strongly agree with the Andorra bets, the Northern Ireland one looks good too. Latvia unders bet is sunk, 4-0 already. No regrets though, it was good value @ 1.95.

[MPLouis]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Fair enough' date=' thought 'both to score - no' would mean that one team has to score, obviously I now know better :lol[/quote'] Hardly any difference in this case as the chance of Andorra beating Poland away from home is about the same as me being the next President of the USA. But I quite often find that Both to Score NO is higher odds than the clean sheet - possibly because it is a bigger more competitive market.

[pg_yid]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Greece U21 to beat San Marino U21 to nil @ 1.36 looks really good value, San Marino U21 have scored only twice in 23 games. Greece U21 look decent, they beat England and drew with England in recent years. Sorry, I know it's the wrong thread but since there isn't one I thought it may be of interest to people in here.

[cheekymonkey74]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Greece u21 are very good indeed, very prolific so over 3.5, 4 goals at 1.90 with bet365 is the way to go, especially when adding an over 9 corners at 5/6 and a few other bets for a crazy accumulator lol.

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Also taken a Poland clean sheet. Can't really add to Hastgills post, except to say I would expect the purpose of playing the second worst international side in Europe right before the tournament is to score a few goals and boost confidence, so would envisage a professional performance. Not so confident on the Dutch one. Like Hastgill says, they do have a habit of conceding when they shouldn't, and their defence never inspires me. No Mathjisen tomorrow either, he'll be replaced by Vlaar. Edit: Couple of correct scores for fun too. 4-0 @ 7.00 (Various) 5-0 @ 9.00 (Betfred) Games is live on Bet365, if anyone cares, though curiously they don't actually have it to bet on :unsure

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Funny MPLouis and Hastgills debating over a point on that Poland bet. I had to take them @ 1.36, as BetVictor banned me, for taking him to the cleaners (well, £20) and I don't use Bwin :p

[rydogg]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 I guess I can appreciate the lack of confidence in the Holland clean sheet considering their dodgy performances at the back recently, but lets be honest this is Northern Ireland, playing a Holland side looking to enter the Euros full of confidence in front of a packed Amsterdam Arena. HastGill has added to this the fact that NI are missing players and some very interesting goal statistics, so for me this is a Holland win to nil. Unfortunately much of the value has been sapped away and I can see this dropping further tomorrow, but I've taken the 1.61 currently on offer at B365.. (Also taken the 3-0 and 4-0 scorelines for a bit of fun) I add to this a bet for the England v Norway game. England have been hit with some devastating injuries recently, losing Lampard and Barry pre-tournament is a huge loss - a team with Henderson in it has no chance in the Euros haha. England had a good start against Norway, but for me we lacked any real flair and never really threatened having scored the first goal.. Having said that Belgium's defence without Vermaelen and Kompany looked absolutely awful the other night against Montenegro! Fortunately I believe both will play against England (Kompany is not sure), but either way just the addition of Vermaelen should sure up their defence.. So England's attacking options tomorrow realistically rest with Young today, Carroll played well against Norway, but looked far more useful as provider (fantastic hold up play) rather than goalscorer... I just cannot see England winning this game, even though I would love us too! For em the value lies with taking Belgium +1AH @ 1.725 B365, an England win is likely to be narrow if it does occur!

[malabgd]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Holland v Northern Ireland (Friendly) Many key players will not take part in this match for Northern Ireland: Baird, Brunt, Davis, Hughes, J. Evans, Lafferty, McAuley and Shiels. Injuries & suspensions England v Belgium (Friendly) England: Rooney, Parker, Welbeck, Johnson (all doubtful), Lampard, Barry Belgium: Alderwield

[HastGill1]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Impressive we managed to bet against San Marino U21's who had lost their last 24 games and they manage to pick up a point! 24 bloody games, unbelievable..

[MPLouis]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Poland to keep a clean sheet - 1.44 - betvictor - 20 points

Both this and 'Both Teams to Score NO' are now available at 1.57 with Bet 365

[HastGill1]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Yeah, great news..:lol..what can you do? Betvictor price seemed more than fair.

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Weird and annoying how Bet365 did that, not like them really. Could you not back only Andorra to score, Hastgill, @ 2.80 with the cash you stand to win if Poland keep a clean sheet, and then take Bet365's price? You obviously won't get you entire stake back, but it's better than what I'd get with my paltry 1.36 :lol

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 England have to of been a worse price than 1.75 surely? Should be a first choice back five/six/seven, if you count Parker and Gerrard, which would provide stability, and allow the attackers to get at Belgium. Really feel Belgium are being overrated here. Yes, they have good individuals, but that alone does not a great team make. Beaten easily by Germany when they needed a result to make the play-offs, also drew in Azerbaijan. 2-2 at home against Montenegro last time out. Also, a caretaker coach, and less motivation than the home side.

[ThusPrider]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 My instinct says Belgium. I agree the price might be inflated with them simply having 'good individuals', but the likes of Kompany and Hazard are better than any of the England players. Watching England's 0 - 1 win was a good start for Hodgson... but it was an extremely poor game and Norway arguably had the better chances. No way am I backing England, Belgium 9/2 for me. 2/10.

[markvighan]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 England - Belgium This tip is for England to keep a clean sheet. Under Roy Hodgson, it's a game where there isn't a lot of goals nor and things are keep close. Although, it seems on the score but in real play, england will be a straight forward, solid team with highly organized back four with a lot of discipline. It's not just that, it's the way Roy Hodgson plays that will keep thing tidy at the back and also the midfield able to support them. If a goal was to come then it's likely to be from a set piece. England will be boosted with a few key players back in the starting lineup with John Terry, Ashley cole, Glen Johnson so expect a tough line up and not to mention Belgium have their potent attack which will test them. England Clean sheet and at wembley this evening.

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

My instinct says Belgium. I agree the price might be inflated with them simply having 'good individuals', but the likes of Kompany and Hazard are better than any of the England players. Watching England's 0 - 1 win was a good start for Hodgson... but it was an extremely poor game and Norway arguably had the better chances. No way am I backing England, Belgium 9/2 for me. 2/10.

Disagree about Hazard. Joe Cole looked good in France, which says it all. Wait until I've seen a top season out of him for Chelsea. Kompany may not play, I'm sure I've seen. Does Hazard even start for Belgium? Seen him on the bench a few times.

[ThusPrider]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Disagree about Hazard. Joe Cole looked good in France' date=' which says it all. Wait until I've seen a top season out of him for Chelsea. Kompany may not play, I'm sure I've seen. Does Hazard even start for Belgium? Seen him on the bench a few times.[/quote'] You can perhaps argue that a player will perform better/worse in different leagues, but there is no doubt of the quality of Hazard. The French league may not be the best, but Hazard was also wanted by a bunch of top clubs in the Premier league. You've gotta watch some youtube videos at least to see how this guy plays. The fact that Joe Cole did well in France doesn't mean all the players that play for the French league are only good in the French league.

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Also taken a Poland clean sheet. Can't really add to Hastgills post, except to say I would expect the purpose of playing the second worst international side in Europe right before the tournament is to score a few goals and boost confidence, so would envisage a professional performance. Not so confident on the Dutch one. Like Hastgill says, they do have a habit of conceding when they shouldn't, and their defence never inspires me. No Mathjisen tomorrow either, he'll be replaced by Vlaar. Edit: Couple of correct scores for fun too. 4-0 @ 7.00 (Various) 5-0 @ 9.00 (Betfred) Games is live on Bet365, if anyone cares, though curiously they don't actually have it to bet on :unsure

Clean sheet and 4-0 comes in :)

[MPLouis]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Poland v Andorra Poland are a pretty solid home side, only lost to Italy and France in the last couple of years, drawings with Portugal, Germany and Mexico keeping 7 clean sheets out of the last 13 games including 4 of the last 5. Not a high scoring side I don't really see them getting too far in the Euro's but they are sound defensively and although Andorra are not as bad as they used to be they still carry very, very little attacking threat. I think there is a bit of value on under 4.0 goals at evens too as Andorra are capable of keeping the score down and it seems unlikely we will see a 5-0 game so close to the start of the tournament, worst case you get your stake back, I won't be betting on this though as Poland will be in the Andorra half for 90% of the game and I don't want to be watching the game through my fingers! Andorra have failed to score in 14 of their last 16 games and I would be surprised to see that change against a solid defence in a home stadium. I would have this down at 1.2 personally so I think there is decent value in the 'Poland to keep a clean sheet' market, you even cover 0-0 were it to happen. Betvictor are the only ones to price it up from what I can see, and I think they have priced it up wrongly. Poland to keep a clean sheet - 1.44 - betvictor - 20 points

Poland 4 Andorra 0 I saw most of the game. Poland comfortably deserved the win with their hard-working style. Andorra did have a few glimpses of goal and had one shot early in the second half which hit the side netting and might have troubled the keeper if it had been on target. Andorra also put quite a few balls into the box and there was always the possibility that they might have got a penalty (Poland got two). Poland defended pretty well but there were quite physical and weren't anywhere near teams like Spain or France at keeping possession. They relied quite a bit on their strength and speed to keep the Andorra attack quiet. So although I backed the clean sheet and am happy the bet won, I'm not actually sure whether the bet was good value or not (did Andorra have more or less than a one-in-three chance of scoring in this game?)

[AlanJenkins2]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Poland 4 Andorra 0 I saw most of the game. Poland comfortably deserved the win with their hard-working style. Andorra did have a few glimpses of goal and had one shot early in the second half which hit the side netting and might have troubled the keeper if it had been on target. Andorra also put quite a few balls into the box and there was always the possibility that they might have got a penalty (Poland got two). Poland defended pretty well but there were quite physical and weren't anywhere near teams like Spain or France at keeping possession. They relied quite a bit on their strength and speed to keep the Andorra attack quiet. So although I backed the clean sheet and am happy the bet won, I'm not actually sure whether the bet was good value or not (did Andorra have more or less than a one-in-three chance of scoring in this game?)

:D well done for checking,and posing the question,anyway.That's more than most punters do when they win !

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

:D well done for checking' date='and posing the question,anyway.That's more than most punters do when they win ![/quote'] Towards the end of his post MP just realised he'd almost gone a post without using the word ''value'', that's all :loon

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 And yes, it was value. Andorra did nothing, Poland did very well. Should of been 1.20 max, as Hastgill said.

[MPLouis]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

And yes' date=' it was value. Andorra did nothing, Poland did very well. Should of been 1.20 max, as Hastgill said.[/quote'] Did you see the game Alex? If so, didn't you think Andorra could have scored?

[HastGill1]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Poland v Andorra Poland to keep a clean sheet - 1.44 - betvictor - 20 points WIN Netherlands v Northern Ireland Netherlands to keep a clean sheet - 1.73 - Ladbrokes - 7 points WIN

Got to admit I piled a load more on the Poland bet when Alex pointed out bet365 had the same bet at 1.57 which was insane. Don't understand what they were thinking considering that bet would have won in 13 of Andorra's last 15 games. Andorra were awful as usual, don't think they had a shot on target, and the ref seemed to blow the whistle every time a player went down which resulted in them launching a few balls into the box but they didn't really do much with them. NI put out a terrible side and got tonked, didn't threaten at all.

[HastGill1]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012

Did you see the game Alex? If so' date=' didn't you think Andorra could have scored?[/quote'] They didn't have a shot on target as far as I can remember, the only time they got the ball in the box was from the numerous free kicks they were awarded, even then they hardly won a header. I think 1.18-1.22 would have been a fair price.

[Alexc]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 Yeah, what Hastgill said, MP. Bit nervy the five or six times they put a free-kick in, but that was only because I was on the clean sheet, and they didn't even win a single header. I thought Poland did very well. Yes, it's only Andorra, but they scored four, and defended well, even when they made a raft of substitutions. Passed the ball nicely. Could of got BTTS @ 15.00 at half-time, albeit quite briefly, before it plummeted to 6.00. If I'd a max stake on this I'd of lost some profit to ensure no loss :lol

[pg_yid]

Re: International Friendlies > 2012 I didn't see the Poland-Andorra game but was also on the 'either team not to score', and just from the stats (namely, Andorra's poor goalscoring record) and previous games I've watched involving Andorra I'd say it was definitely value. Value is something which must be decided before the game has begun, if that makes any sense. Andorra might have had the next Leo Messi coming on as sub and he might have scored a hatrick of wonder goals but if there was no evidence of this occurring then there was no way we could have factored it into our considerations. So in that respect Andorra's performance should not affect our judgment on whether or not our initial pricing up of the market was accurate or not, unless we saw in their performance evidence of something we may have overlooked previously. So, even had Andorra scored, I'd still say the correct price before the game would have been around 1.2, based on past events.