Argentina > Primera Division > 2012

[Bagzi]

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[TR] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Saturday 11 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Boca Juniors v Olimpo (00:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.45[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.7[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]10[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.24 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]CA Lanus v San Lorenzo (00:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.12[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.35[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.33[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.10 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Belgrano v CA All Boys (22:10 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.32[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.65[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.80 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Estudiantes de La Plata v Newell's Old Boys (22:10 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.8[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.5[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]5.6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.98 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR] [TH] [/TH] [TH=class: firstColumn, align: left]Sunday 12 February 2012[/TH] [TH]Home[/TH] [TH]Draw[/TH] [TH]Away[/TH] [TH=class: bppWidth]BPP[/TH] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]San Martin-San Juan v Independiente (00:15 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.4[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.15[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.45[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.40 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Atlético de Rafaela v CA Banfield (20:00 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.05[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.2[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]102.89 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row0, bgcolor: #F0F0F0] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Racing Club v CA Tigre (22:10 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]2.05[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.3[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]4.5[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]101.31 %[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [/TR] [TR=class: row1] [TD=align: center][/TD] [TD=class: firstColumn, align: left]Vélez Sársfield v Godoy Cruz de Mendoza (22:10 GMT)[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]1.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]3.75[/TD] [TD=class: selectionBestOdd, align: center]6[/TD] [TD=class: bppWidth bpp, align: center]100.48 %[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE]

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread It comes as a surprise to me that there seems no one remotely interested in the Arg Prem, however, perhaps thats because like me you've watched enough of the stuff over the last year to realise that the majority of games are an absolute pile of shite. I used to bet on Under 2.5's in this league and 0-0 score lines, successfully, but after a break of a couple of months in their closed season, I can't help but feel somewhat uninspired to continue betting on such negative outcomes. Even though I've had to have an enforced lay off for the last month due to a business commitment which was completed today, I'm still somewhat annoyed I didnt even stick my minimum stake for a 0-0 of £2.50 on tonights Belgrano game, it did finish 0-0, hardly surprising as the woefully appalling All Boys were the opponents. On Friday night I decided to watch the Boca v Olimpo match, and trust me this was 100% toilet. Only one shot on target each during the whole of the first half, and barely any others off target, 1-0 at half time and it was obviously offside anyhow. I couldn't bare to watch the second half, it finish 2-0. Here's some of the points to note in this league for those not familiar with it : 1. One of the most positive things about it is that you rarely see a reckless or deliberately violent tackle in this league, I've only seen one shocker in the last two years which was in a Newells v Sante Fe game last season. 2. Unlike in the UK Prem, divers are a rare commodity, there is a healthy respect between most teams/players 3. Goals are very few, however with penalties a rarity this is a contributing factor. 4. Referees rarely make diabolical decisions, largely becaue they don't come under the sort of pressure that would contribute to such, as the players are as mentioned above generally honest. Those that aren't, tend to stand out easily in this league. 5. Crowd atmospheres in many matches are amazing but I am at a loss to understand why anyone would pay to watch alot of this crap on a regular basis. The only team in the last few seasons that I can honestly say were worth watching regularly was Velez Sarsfield. Sadly before the start of the last Aperatura, they sold several of their best players and simply couldn't live up to what they achieved in the preceeding Clausura. If you're thinking of watching some games in this league purely for pleasure, check each teams stats before doing so as the number of games that finish 0-0 or appear to be heading that way right from the start, is excessive. If you want goals choose any match featuring Godoy Cruz, they are the Peterborough or Ipswich of Argentina. If you want to watch exciting South American football youre better off in the leagues Mexico, Columbia, Chile, or the Copa Libertadores which was superb last season but again many of the top teams such as Velez and Universidad Catolica have now moved on some of their star players since that tournament. If it's divers and referees to match or better the appalling level in the UK Prem you seek, it's the Brazil Serie A for you, comfortably the most annoying football I've had the misfortune to watch for some years.

[MNC]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

It comes as a surprise to me that there seems no one remotely interested in the Arg Prem, however, perhaps thats because like me you've watched enough of the stuff over the last year to realise that the majority of games are an absolute pile of shite. I used to bet on Under 2.5's in this league and 0-0 score lines, successfully, but after a break of a couple of months in their closed season, I can't help but feel somewhat uninspired to continue betting on such negative outcomes.

The answer to all your questions is pretty easy: all the talent in this league is gone to other leagues where they pay better. If you bring back all the Argentinean players in European leagues, and even some in Brazil, Mexico or Chile, we could have here one of the top leagues in the world. Last year I did a mental exercise of trying to imagine what players would each team have if the players they once sold were back, and I couldn't believe how strong would most teams be. Of course, the same applies for Brazil. Anyway, football quality used to be better (and I'm not talking about too long ago) and I think it will get better again sooner or later. The crisis in Europe is making teams waste less money (there were very few transfers this off season) and this will be good for our league at some point. And about and your surprise that we pay to watch the league...well, I'm surprised you even ask this ! This is a country that breathes football, the passion is HUGE, no matter if games are good or not. This will never change and I hope some day you'll be able to experience it live. And also, as someone providing information in english of this league since 3 years ago (check the link in my post above) I can assure you there is people interested in the league. Of course, 99% of football punters prefer European leagues because they are closer and they can get information in English or their own language.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Excellent reply, your comments about most of the best Arg' players now being in Europe is exactly as I see it too. I am surprised how big the crowds are for teams that are providing such poor entertainment, the crowd at Boca on Friday had a lot of empty spaces. How much is the average admission prices for a game in Arg' in UK Pounds please ?

[MNC]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Excellent reply' date=' your comments about most of the best Arg' players now being in Europe is exactly as I see it too. I am surprised how big the crowds are for teams that are providing such poor entertainment, the crowd at Boca on Friday had a lot of empty spaces. How much is the average admission prices for a game in Arg' in UK Pounds please ?[/quote'] The best players have been going to Europe since 30-40 years ago, this is nothing new, but in the last 10 years just EVERYONE goes to Europe (or Mexico, Brazil, etc). I've seen lots of below average players getting enough Euros so that they will live without working until they die...and I'm almost sure that there's a lot of money laundry going on with many of this transfers, but that's something that doesn't belong in this forum. But like I said, this will probably change soon because not every team in Europe is able to buy players like they used to. The cheapest ticket here has been recently raised to 7-8 pounds, and from there it depends on the game but there can be some 40-50 pounds tickets in the derbies. Yesterday Boca stadium had empty spaces because we are in summer, there is a lot of people still on vacations and it was really a meaningless game. Boca is playing Copa Libertadores this semester, and all their fans are looking forward to that competition. If you want to continue this conversation in private so we don't bother everybody else, you know how to contact me. Cheers

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread I think it's good to keep it on this thread because otherwise there will be nothing to read on it ! No one is talking about the games because they are probably not worth talking about ! Also I think its good that punters can see we both share the same opinions in general and what makes it interesting is I'm in UK and you're in Argentina so it's a good wide view. Cheapest tickets raised to 7 to 8 Pounds ! That tells me why they go even if the football is poor. The last time the cheapest tickets here in the UK were around that price for the 1st or Prem as we know it now, was around 1986/87, no joking ! Football in the UK is a rip off, even in the 2nd (Championship) youre looking at around £20-£25, 3rd and 4th divisions £16-£20.

[MNC]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread I think comparing prices doesn't make much sense. You're paying more to watch players very well paid, playing in great stadiums. Infrastructure here is crap, it always has been. And of course, 7-8 pounds is not the same here than in the UK. In fact, football is no really cheap here, but people still goes because of that passion I mentioned before.

[MNC]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Atletico Rafaela - Banfield, free preview from www.ArgentinaPreviews.com Check here : http://bit.ly/A4lxCX Current price of the HW @ 2.05+ looks good for a mid stakes bet. :hope

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Nobody else did get involved on this thread so I think we were right to fill it with some general talk afterall. Yes I overlooked the cost of living in Argentina when comparing admission prices, but can it really be at least double to live in the UK than in Argentina ? I agree about stadiums, many of yours look like death traps to me. The banking (angle of the terraces) looks more like a ski slope at many grounds, surely there must be people badly injured at some matches ? I don't think many of your stadiums would be allowed here in the UK and it's understandable. In the UK too many matches seem to have excessive numbers of stewards which adds to the cost. The UK can be proud that trouble in stadiums is a rarity now, in Arentina I think every stadium still has high fences. The problem is that when trouble does kick off in Aregentina in the stadiums all hell seems to break loose as witnessed in a few matches I saw within the last year, three being abandoned. In tonight's games I would suggest backing the 0-0 in the Racing match, and both teams to score in the Velez game. In fact thinking about it these might have already started or even finished. Hold on, will check live score. 72 mins gone 0-0 and 1-1 respictively. Watching Racing is about as enjoyable as watching paint dry.

[Batig0l]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Any tips for the final game of the evening?

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Unless Argentinos Jrs have signed some world beaters in the closed season then this is almost guaranteed to be yet another appalling match. Let me tell you this, I bet on this league intensely in the Apertura, the fact theres already been two 0-0's this weekend means very little, last season there were weekends with 3 and 4 x 0-0's across the 10 fixtures. The only worry I have with this match is the ratio of Under and Overs 2.5 has not yet been exceeded. Fact, there is on average 3 x Over 2.5's in the 10 fixtures per weekend, so far there has only been 2 from the 9 played. For example if there had been a weekend where from the first 9 games 4 had been Overs, then I would always place a high stake of the 10th game to be Under, and off the top of my head I can't recall slipping up on that basis. The averages are very reliable in this league. I'm not betting at present due to a big biz commitment which I just completed yesterday, I'm being disciplined even tho could have had good wins with small stakes over the weekend. I would strongly advise a few quid on the 0-0 in the remaining game because the chances of it are decent in my opinion having watched both teams many times in the Apertura, £2.50 @ 9.8 Betfair wins just over £20. As to a home / draw / away result, forget it, trying to call them in Arg is so hard I gave that up a long time ago. I rarely bet Under/Over 2.5 on anything these days as it's such an easy bet to lose, I prefer to go for Under 3.5 or 4.5 using a high stake and possibly trade out early, but the odds for this one on those options simply don't offer enough value. For me it would be the low staked 0-0 that I suggested and nothing else.

[Batig0l]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Thanks for your post mate. I've gone for an under 1.5 goals stake and a larger under 2.5 goals stake too. During the Apertura, Juniors seemed to struggle with goals at home, and Union with goals away. It even looks as if Union relied upon their keeper for some goals too during the Apertura!!

[sonofwat]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Thanks for your post mate. I've gone for an under 1.5 goals stake and a larger under 2.5 goals stake too. During the Apertura, Juniors seemed to struggle with goals at home, and Union with goals away. It even looks as if Union relied upon their keeper for some goals too during the Apertura!!

Probably just penalties. Have followed advice of Nervous Anorak and backed the 0-0...always has a good chance of cashing in the Argentinian league.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Ah yes, there is a goalkeeper who I saw take two pens in the Arg Prem last season, must be Santa Fe. Argentinos Jr really are abysmal, they make Stoke look like Barcelona. I won't be watching this, it's likely to be dire. I have a shipment of obscure early 70's jazz fusion LP's to go through just arrived from the states, Johnny Hammond "Breakout" LP on the turntable at the moment. Anyone else on here into similar ? Actually I see 26 mins gone and still 0-0, how's the entertainment value so far on a scale of 1 to 10 ?

[Batig0l]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread I'm not even bothering to watch the game myself, because I know it'll be shockingly boring, and I'm trying to stay awake a bit longer to motivate myself to do some work before the week ahead, rather than fall asleep! Jazz fusion is definitely a genre of music I have no knowledge of at all. Any particular cornerstone musician/artist/singer of the genre who would be a good introduction?

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Mods, I don't know whether this sort of messaging is frowned upon but we gotta fill the space as the games ain't worth talking about ! These three should let you decide whether you're into Jazz Fusion or not ! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWsE97scAhQ I used this track for 100's of radio signature tunes/function starts for years

It helps if you're a musician as well to appreciate the quality of this stuff.

[sonofwat]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Watched the first half...:rollinquite incredible that a country with a league like this could ever produce players like Messi, Aguero etc. It is tempting to get out of my 0-0 with a small profit but I don't really see any reason too.

[Batig0l]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread It seems maybe I do know this type of music already - I have a George Benson greatest hits cd, so I'm already scratching on the surface! Yellow Jackets song is a pretty cool song. I take it you're a dj of some sort. I actually used to work part-time in a hi-fi and also a dj shop when I was younger, and play the guitar too - but I'm no master of the instrument! I'm going to rid myself of my exposure to my under 1.5 goals bet now and head to sleep. Cheers again for the tip and the music. I wasn't sure whether I'd bet on this game or not, until you gave your analysis, and now I'm quite likely going to be a good bit richer before the new week begins! Keep enjoyin' those new records!

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Yeah its astonishing isn't it the dearth of talent in Argentina at the moment. It's like watching chess with a ball isn't it ? The only players I'd be enquiring about if I was a manager, are all (last time I checked) at Velez Sarsfield. Is that the first Arg Prem game you've watched Sono' ? Back to the Jazz Fusion, yes ex DJ, had to stop in 2004 due to the onset of tinnitus, miss it badly. Occasional studio session bass player as can't do live work due to tinnitus/volume, Pro vinyl dealer since 1991 specialising in soul, funk, jazz fusion, early rap, electro, predominantly material from 1973 to 1987. 70 mins gone still 0-0, I'd be tempted to get out at around Lay odds of 1.3 usually as profit usually decent by then, altho not on it tonight as I said. Let's hope it stays 0-0

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread The Lay odds on the Arg Juniors match for 0-0 never came down to 1.3 until the 89th minute because of the sending off which I just spotted. Did you get out early Sono or hold on ?

[MNC]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Guys, because of my job I usually watch games of non top European leagues and let me tell you that the talent and level of football I've seen is not much better than in my local league. Of course, it can't be compared to top leagues for the simple reason that economically there's a world of difference. What's been a lot of fun to watch this season is 2nd division. We have 3 teams tied at the top (including giant River Plate and another big team, Rosario Central) and one team just 1 point below them. 2nd half of Argentinos - Union has not been as bad you would think given the 0-0 draw. The hosts have missed lots of chances to score, it's been fun. Should be 1-0 by now but it looks like it will stay like this. I hope you were able to get the nice odds on Atletico Rafaela's win that i recommended and even raised to 2.30 before KO.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Shame I'm not betting this weekend, good tip for Rafaela, I wonder if Banfield can beat their last season record not scoring in their first 7 games ! Why the hell is Juan Eluchans there, stunning player for Uni Catolica previous season.

[MNC]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Shame I'm not betting this weekend' date=' good tip for Rafaela, I wonder if Banfield can beat their last season record not scoring in their first 7 games ! Why the hell is Juan Eluchans there, stunning player for Uni Catolica previous season.[/quote'] They should have scored today. Rafaela's goalkeeper had a brilliant game. That one was a pretty good game, very entertaining and probably the best of the round so far. It was 3-0 but could have been 3-2 easily. Lanus - San Lorenzo was good too, Velez - Godoy Cruz could have had more goals, San Martin - Independiente was not bad. Boca was boring as usual but they are solid as hell. Racing should improve but for now they are basically the same as last year. I see that you normally use Betfair and back/lay the over/unders. Never tried asian sportsbooks to bet on asian handicap ? It's a different style of betting of course but you will have better odds.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Thanks for the thanks M'hofer and Sono, glad to have helped. Next week I'll get involved on all the games even if I don't bet them again.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread No I've never tried the asian handicaps. On Arg games I never think about the result, because with exception of Velez and Godoy, almost every game is a potential 0-0 so I used to go Under 2.5 when it looked likely, I have never bet Over anything on Arg. I started betting Under 4.5 on UK games just after xmas, using a very high stake, I had 20 straight wins but then failed to get out of two matches when it looked risky and got caught out. Altho for every £100 staked you might be getting only around £16 to £25 profit, when you do it 20 times the winnings soon add up nicely. Check how many games are over 4.5, you'll be surprised how few. The odds for Under 4.5 on Arg Prem are too low with a few exceptions. Boca was good value at 1.15 on Friday, tonight Arg Jrs was only 1.08 but I can fully understand a big player putting a grand on something like that as its an easy 80 quid profit, but I'm not in that league ! The chances of that game have more than four goals were about as high as Fernando Torres scoring a hatrick (in one game) !

[MNC]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

No I've never tried the asian handicaps. On Arg games I never think about the result, because with exception of Velez and Godoy, almost every game is a potential 0-0 so I used to go Under 2.5 when it looked likely, I have never bet Over anything on Arg. I started betting Under 4.5 on UK games just after xmas, using a very high stake, I had 20 straight wins but then failed to get out of two matches when it looked risky and got caught out. Altho for every £100 staked you might be getting only around £16 to £25 profit, when you do it 20 times the winnings soon add up nicely. Check how many games are over 4.5, you'll be surprised how few.

Well, it's a betting style I don't like much. If you win 20 pounds (to use an average of what you said) in 10 consecutive games, you only need to lose 2 to lose all profit !

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Potentially, but on one of them I could have got out at 1-1 for only a small loss as I thought the game would turn risky. The other one was a shock result at half time 0-2 Arsenal Villa, yet even before the first goal went in I could have traded out at 2/3rds potential profit. Then how was I know thered be 2 pens and an own goal in the space of 9 mins ! On both these games I took unnecessary risks and fully deserved to get caught out. It wasn't a question of luck, I had my chances and I blew them. I'm hard on myself when I think I deserve it, I don't take to making mistakes easily and I believe in the long run thats the difference between being successful or not, it's knowing how to back off and not push the boundaries too far.

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

Well, it's a betting style I don't like much. If you win 20 pounds (to use an average of what you said) in 10 consecutive games, you only need to lose 2 to lose all profit !

But the advantage is the chances of you losing 2 in 10 are low if you've done your research well and have a radio or TV commentary. In many Under 4.5's if theres no goal by 30 mins you can Lay out at around 65 to 70% of the potential profit, so very often you're bet is done and dusted before Half Time Also you have the pychological bonus of looking at your betting spreadsheet (you do keep books don't you ?) and you see 20 consecutive wins in one column. It's a good feeling I can assure you. You are never going to see a long list of Under/Over 2.5's with W against them unless you're an absolute legend !

[MNC]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread

But the advantage is the chances of you losing 2 in 10 are low if you've done your research well and have a radio or TV commentary. In many Under 4.5's if theres no goal by 30 mins you can Lay out at around 65 to 70% of the potential profit, so very often you're bet is done and dusted before Half Time Also you have the pychological bonus of looking at your betting spreadsheet (you do keep books don't you ?) and you see 20 consecutive wins in one column. It's a good feeling I can assure you. You are never going to see a long list of Under/Over 2.5's with W against them unless you're an absolute legend !

So the profit is not an average of 20 pounds, right ? If you lay out then you are securing profit, but it will be less than if you stay on the bet until the end. At what odds do you lay the under 4.5 ? 1.15 - 1.2 or lower ?

[Nervous Anorak]

Re: Argentina Primera Division 2012 Thread Well to be honest I was using the example of "per £100" as an example. I'm not up to enough postings to be able to PM you, so we'll have to carry on here for the moment. The stake size varied according to my confidence on the bet, remembering that most of the games I was betting on I had serious knowledge of the teams likely capabilities and would have been to most of the stadiums to watch games in the days I was actively going home and away so I know how intimidating some grounds/crowds would be which could have a significant bearing on the match. Depending on the situation and stake size, and how I felt the game might go it would vary. Lets say I took odds of 1.16 which is the minimum I would normally consider on Under 4.5, if it was still 0-0 at 35 minutes and the game sounded/looked poor but I'd used a very high stake well in excess of my example, then if the odds were say 1.06 so I'd reached 65% of the maximum profit, then I'd trade out for equal profit whatever the result mainly for relaxation purposes ! There'd be no need to sweat after that. You will very often see Under 4.5 all the way down to 1.03 at half time if there hasnt been a goal. So why take the risk, just get out and say goodbye to that extra little bit you could gain, but could lose. One of the most stress free bets I had this season was Arsenal - Leeds in the FA Cup, it finished 1-0. I put a massive stake on Under 5.5 this time, because the odds were massive compared to the probability, they were something like 1.21, and it was a far safer bet than Under 4.5 Lets look at it methodically, if Arsenal had managed to take a 3 goal lead they wouldn't "need" to score anymore because it was a one off cup game and there was virtually no chance of Leeds getting back into the game, I didnt even think Leeds would score and was proved right. With Arsenal not fielding Van Persie this meant they were always going to be blunt up front. It was only when Henrie came on there was a goal. Also here in the UK if a Premier League team gets a good advantage in a Cup game against a lower league team they will not try to embarrass them because they don't need to, and if they do try to score 5 or 6 when they don't need to, they are likely to have a few players clattered as a way of saying thanks for visiting ! So the system I use is one of looking for what I think are high value odds for low risk outcomes, albeit you have to stake high to make it worthwhile but risk of loss is very low. If I didnt have money tied up on a business thing until tomorrow, I would have done a big stake on Under 4.5 in the Boca game at 1.15 odds, watched the game and traded out just before half time before the first goal went in. That game was never going to have 5 goals but why wait to see when you don't have to. Grab good profit and move on. You need to study odds movemen on Betfair for months, I spent a whole year refining what I do. Classic examples I've seen recently, West Brom - Everton, Under 4.5 was around 1.11 at kick off, by the fifth minute it was down to 1.07, you can see how big money players make their money fast. I'm not suggesting you do this, but think about it, someone who has a massive betting/trading bank puts £1000 on 1.11 and trades out at 1.07, £35.50 profit whatever the result after just 5 minutes of play. On that game I actually Bet Under 3.5 and not for that amount, I'm only small time !