BBOTD Saturday 11th of February

[Aidymac]

:ok

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February *Ubi Ace - Musselburgh 3:45* This should be a great race. I hope Koup De Canon runs a nice race for Whoneedsrio. Ubi Ace ran a belter last time out when 3rd to Celestial Halo in a higher grade, Class 2. Dropped to Class 3 and runs off the same mark has a big chance. Traded at a low of evens lto after going off 15/2. Previously to that it won 2 on the trot, winning in an 18 runner field by 7 lengths at Wetherby, then won a Listed event at Sandown, beting Via Galilei and Gibb River, that is good form. This is a competitive field, but this has a good chance off top weight. Tim Walford is in good form, a lot of his horses are being placed and he has had a few winners of late. *1 Point WIN @ 7/1 Betfred BOG*

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 14:05 CREEKSIDE @ MUSSELBROUGH @ 15/8 betvictor this runner is of high interest coming from the furguson stable , the stable must be followed having a red hot season and this is his only sole runner of the day and i do belive has been for quite some time now , must gain interest ? he ran in a very competitive juvinile hurdle last time and they werent sticking around last time ! setting a very quick pace led by uncle bryn who faces him again today , but ran well and held on gamely last time out quickening up nicely . the mount is also a good jockey who must fill with a bit of confidence however isnt the usual ride for furguson . come from the hot oxx stable running incedibly well in ireland and i think mr furgisons bank account may have hurt after investing in this runner today . seems to stand a real chance and one to follow with interest

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 1405 musselbrough 1pt win creekside 7/4 bet365 former john oxx flat horse has won his only start over hurdles for jp ferguson, made a few mistakes in that outing but won with a bit to spare last time out and another good run expected ,jockey jack quinlan has near 40% strike rate teaming up with ferguson

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 1.40 Lingfield Sulis Minerva - has won over 6f here the last twice but travelled really nicely last time and jockey never even drew on the whip. Drops back to 5f now but if travelling just as well, should go very well off revised mark. 3/1 Paddypower, 1 pt

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 3.45 Musselburgh Rumble of Thunder EW 1pt win @ 12/1 Ladbrokes I think this 6 year old is still improving over hurdles and looked very unlucky last time out in that race won by Palawi. He was coming to make his challenge (what I thought was a winning challenge) at the last hurdle but hit it very hard and it knocked the stuffing out of him and he could only manage 6th in the end. This horse notched up a hat-trick over hurdles last year with the middle leg of the 3 coming in a listed race. He then won at Aintree before unsurprisingly finding Rock On Ruby far too good at Newbury. He finished tailed off in that race but I don't think he give his true running and he looked much more like himself last time out over CD. Ground conditions will be fine for him tomorrow and I expect him to run a big race barring and bad mistakes.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February sorry that should be 1pt win

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February

14:05 CREEKSIDE @ MUSSELBROUGH @ 15/8 betvictor this runner is of high interest coming from the furguson stable , the stable must be followed having a red hot season and this is his only sole runner of the day and i do belive has been for quite some time now , must gain interest ? he ran in a very competitive juvinile hurdle last time and they werent sticking around last time ! setting a very quick pace led by uncle bryn who faces him again today , but ran well and held on gamely last time out quickening up nicely . the mount is also a good jockey who must fill with a bit of confidence however isnt the usual ride for furguson . come from the hot oxx stable running incedibly well in ireland and i think mr furgisons bank account may have hurt after investing in this runner today . seems to stand a real chance and one to follow with interest

He has 3 horses out tomorrow Foster. Creekside - Muss 2:05 Cry Of Freedom - Muss 3:45 Cape Dutch - Muss 4:50 Jack Quinlan is also Ferguson's No. 1 jockey, nearly rides all of the horses.

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February Please ignore!!

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February Not blessed with a huge amount of time to do decent writeups unfortunately. 2.15 Lingfield Looking for compensation having backed Hatta Stream last time out in a division of this series 3 weeks ago wrote this last time out; Hatta Stream has drifted out to a huge price in my opinion having won last time out over this CD beating a good field that day, only up 3lb for that day and has won off 4lb higher mark in the past and will enjoy tracking a strong pace from a good draw in stall 2. He looked desperately unlucky that day having chased a fair honest gallop throughout and doing clear best of those on the front end to be nabbed by a potentially well handicapped horse, only 1lb higher today and slightly less pace on for the lead hopefully here with Ice Trooper likely to tow them along so could just sit off the pace from a good draw. 1pt win Hatta Stream 11/2 vc

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 2.05 Musselburgh : Kie (EW 11/2 Paddys) Useful novice and won twice already this season for the McCain yard. Ran poorly last time at Kempton in a decent race but weakned quickly in the straight and the comments were that the horse finished distressed. He has had a break since then and has won here at Musselburgh so the track suits and the ground will be ideal. He was a good third in a Grade 2 at Doncaster to Royal Bonsai and that form looks good enough to get involved here and at the price looks an each way steal.

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 16:50 Musselburgh: Cape Dutch, 2/1 Paddy Power, 1pt Win Trainer John Ferguson has been in great form, with a 38% strike rate so far this season. Cape Dutch won impressively at Carlisle over today's trip in October winning by eleven lengths eased down in a race that has produced a few winners. Lto he ran well finishing second behind Edgardo Sol over two miles at Cheltenham and he should appreciate the return to 2m 4f. Jack Quinlan, who is great value for his five-pound claim, is in the saddle.

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 430 Lingfield – Celtic Charlie – 7/2 Betfred Bit reluctant to be betting this short in a 13 runner field but having found plenty of opportunities for tomorrow(Saturday) the bookies tend to rate the chances of my fancies at lower prices than I’m prepared to back them at. Reasonably unlucky not to score on his first run back on the flat, he made amends over a furlong further last time out under Jemma Marshell (3rd won next time out). Was going best for a long way that day and certainly would have won more convincingly at 12f and should take a lot of beating today with Ian Mongan back on board. Main danger according to the market would appear to be Mr Frosty. His trainer is reported to have said after his last run, "We did not come here for a day out, we came to win and backed him heavily. We would not hear of defeat. He´s won well and he´ll now go to Lingfield on Saturday with Kieren Fallon on him and he should win again." I’m certainly not saying the Mr F won’t win but will be hoping for a small drift on the back of this utter noise! Safwaan is a big threat on a line through Black Iceman but overall, I prefer the prospects of Celtic.

[Kithanga]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February Mussleburgh 4.20 Chester Lad 2-1 (bog) Bet365 Jumped well on his only chase outing at Newcastle and this front runner may be able to make that a decisive factor again against the classier (but more novicey) Bold Sir Brian on a poor day's action from my perspective

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February Although the rating of MOSCOW OZNICK (16:30) is seemingly in freefall, he ran much better when held-up (not ideal) last time and with the drop to a mark of 47 and the booking of a talented 7lb claimer making this horse look exceptionally well-handicap, he can improve on his previous effort granted a slightly better draw. He’s a horse that needs to be prominent, all three of his wins (the last coming off a mark of 57 including the 7lb claimer) were from towards the front of affairs and he’s looked recently that he’s been coming back to the boil, having gone on a long run of poor efforts including after a lengthy absence. The selection’s penultimate effort at Kempton was one where he travelled well for a long period before weakening late-on, beaten 8.5 lengths. That was a big improvement on his previous two starts after the aforementioned absence and when last seen he improved once again. He had a wide berth and his rider was forced to hold him up towards the back. For a horse with little in the way of a turn of foot, this hold-up tactic isn’t to suit and he did run a good race in the circumstances, especially in an event which is likely to turn out to be stronger than this. With a better, but not ideal draw in stall 8, he should be able to sit closer to the pace today especially in a contest that doesn’t have an abundance of front runners. If this is achieved, then he has a fair chance off this weight, especially with the 7lb claimer being especially talented for the few rides he’s had (excusing the whip ban he attained on Friday). Off effectively a mark of 40, Moscow Oznick has every chance here in a fairly weak race, as he’ll be fully fit now after his absence and looked to be coming back to something like reasonable form last time. Our fate might be known pretty early on regarding his racing position, but even so, he’s definitely worth a small/medium sized investment at these kinds of prices. 16:30 Lingfield – Moscow Oznick; 1pt @ 16/1 William Hill (bog)

[Edberg]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 2.45 Lingfield PALACE MOON 5/2 bog (William Hill and many more) Feature race of the afternoon at Lingfield dedicated to the sprinters (Class 2 4yo+ 0-100 Handicap 6f £10,350). Palace Moon came back after a 5-month break lto and won in style at Kempton. Upped 3lb for that he is still rated 98 and less than 8 months ago was rated 109 (110 is best). Palace Moon is a former Listed winner who has won 4 sprints (3 times over 6f and lto over 7f) in his career in just 21 starts and collected almost £90,000. He is the class act in this field and after that impressive and easy win of three weeks ago he was surely aimed at this and should be able to confirm his higher class over this 7 opponents. Among them I fear most Santefisio, heavily backed lto when runner-up for new stable (moved from Makin to Dalgleish). The way he races is always a problem as he needs a bit of help in this kind of races especially at top level. Santefisio won his first race over 6f but his next 3 wins came over 7f (twice) and 8f (last at Kempton 5 months ago off 80 (87 today)). The new training could have improved this lightly raced 6yo and the way he shaped in the latest stages of his last race were promising but still can't rate him at Palace Moon's level especially over 6f.

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 3.45 Muss Palawi ew 12/1 Bet 365 Was a decent performer on the flat without ever winning but quickly won 3 juvenile events when switched to hurdles. Was then upped in class and fell at Aintree and 2 under par runs at Cheltenham. Bounced back to form winning a class 2 handicap over todays course and distance last time out with usual front running tactics. Conditions again should be ideal and I think that with Don'tpay the ferryman in the race he will have an ally to share the work load up front and should be in the mix come the finish.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 2.15 Lingfield Loyal Royal is down to his last winning mark and looks to have a good opportunity here. Although out of the placings in his last few runs he wasn't beaten far and although getting on in years is a very consistent animal. Stable had a nice winner earlier in the week and with a decent draw here i fancy this one to go very close. Kingscote rides well for the satble and is still a nice price this motning. 1 Pt win 12/1 Bet365

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February M3.10 Woody Waller 0.5pt E/W 15/2 Bet365 This horse has put in 2 solid efforts since changing stables and hopefully there's more to come. The horse has won over c&d albeit over hurdles but at least it's shown a liking for the course and James Reveley is a great jockey who does well here. It looks sure to be competitive off this mark and I think it'll be bang there at the death so hopefully it'll convert those recent 2nds into a win. It's been placed on 10 of its 17 starts so e/w looks like a sensible option.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 3.45 Muss - Koup De Kanon win - 8/1 Bet365 WH Ran really well at Cheltenham lto hitting the front 2 out, but got passed late on. This flat track should suit him more and despite the competitive nature of the race, I don't think he should be so big in the market. He is obviously well handicapped and powerful yard will have him ready to fire today.

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 11.15 Kenilworth (SA): Cocktail Party @ 14/1 Bet365 EW Missed the break at her first start and finished well beaten but ran on well in the closing stages and clocked a fast time for the final two furlongs. That suggests that she has a bit of ability. She had a break of 98 days since that run and that is a concern but I hope that she can improve from her debut run nonetheless. The Jockey booking of Felix Coetzee suggests that connections are hoping for a good run as well. The opposition is poor in this race and it's not much required to win it. That's why I think she's overpriced.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 1:50 Naas - Bog Warrior - Back Blackstairmountain is a worthy 2nd favourite here but Bog Warrior has won 3 of his last 4 and had a big chance when falling Lto. He looks a really smart performer and the fact that he is do short against a strong Willie Mullins rival speaks volumes about his talent. He's got a big chance here 1pt win @ 2/5 Bet365 BOG

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 3:10 Musselburgh: Woody Waller 1pt win 15/2 William Hill Woody Waller has a touch of seconditus having joined John Wade from Howard Johnson, however those two runs look pretty decent form. At Wetherby Woody Waller was not beaten far behind Best Lover who came in to the race on the back of two wins. And last time out Woody Waller was second to Storm Surge who although was out of the handicap was getting loads of weight. Woody Waller has won here over hurdles handles the going and two miles is just about right.

[Dtrains]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February lingfield 2.45 palace moon 11/4 bet 365 Read that this horse has had a wind op in the break he had before bolting up a kempton 20 days ago, if thats true he'll be very hard to beat here up just 3lb. Nothing in this field stands out and i expect this horse to defy top weight and out class this lot. 1pt win

[rossom]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February

2.30 Kempton May's Boy 12/1 - 1pt win Bet 365 Like the look of Mark Usher's 4 year old colt a fair deal whose latest effort I am willing to overlook. 2 starts back, May's Boy came 5th beaten 3.5L and was dropped 2lb for that effort to a mark of 76 in a race won by Sunset Kitty, who I think sets a very good standard. The Form of the race already taken a boost with the 2nd Shifting Star winning on his next outing off a 1lb higher mark. That race was May's Boy's first race for about 4 months and it looked as though he'd come on a fair bit for that race. On his last start May's Boy was desperately disappointing over C+D as he just didn't pick up at all when asked. However, I heard trainer Mark Usher give an interview on ATR earlier in the week where he said that May's Boy is in great form at present so I am willing to overlook his latest effort as an off day at the track. As a result of his last poor performance May's Boy has been dropped a further 3lb to a mark of 73 and I think he looks very well handicapped now. Although 3lb above his last winning mark, he put in an excellent 1.25L beaten 4th off a mark of 80 over C+D in a Class 4 and if replicating that form he should be very hard to beat. Another significant note is May's Boy has been dropped in grade to a Class 5 which should make things a lot easier for him today. Rachel Kneller takes the ride today and with her 7lb claim May's Boy races off an effective mark of 66 which further enhances his claims. Trainer Mark Usher is in blistering form at the moment with 1 win and 3 narrowly beaten 2nds from his last 4 runners which just strengthens my confidence in his chances today. Although this C+D winner doesn't have the best draw in stall 5, its only a 7 runner race so it shouldn't be too much of a problem. If overlooking his last effort which Mark Usher seemed to indicate during the week, I can see May's Boy going very, very close to landing this and I'm having a medium sized win bet in the hope he can do so

[skylark2009]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 3.45 Musselburgh - Dontpaytheferryman - His four runs at Musselburgh have resulted in a 3rd and three 1st's. He will need to improve today in this very competitive race, but may be capable of running into a place. He won his last two races here under the jockeyship of K James, who is riding again today and takes off a useful 5lb's. Trainer/jockey combo is running to 5 wins and 7 places from 20 to an L.S.P. of +0.75pts. 3.45 Musselburgh: Dontpaytheferryman - 0.5pts E/w @ 11/1 Bet365 (BOG)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 1.40 Lingfield - 1pt win Clear Praise @ 10/1 (Hills) Simon Dow's charge is hardly setting the world alight of late, but is a past winner off 3lbs lower, and has run well enough off marks around 78 to suggest he can go well off his current mark today. All of his wins have come on the polytrack, and although two of his three victories have come over 6f, a strongly run 5f might play to his strengths considering he's often a hard puller. He shaped with promise on his return from a break in December when a sound 6th at Kempton (1/2l behind Taajub) from a wide draw. Pulled too hard over 7f next time at Lingfield in a nice race when beaten 4 1/2l, and again was a touch keen last time back over 6f when a poor 10th of 12. However, all of the front 5 were prominent throughout, and those towards the rear never got a blow in. I'm happy to forgive him that effort and he's dropped 2lbs for it. Hayley Turner is back on board today (2 wins under her) and this looks set up for a closer. There is a serious amount of pace in the race and Turner can drop this one in from stall 6 and try get him settled for a late run.

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February 7.20 Wolverhampton - Redclue 1pt Win 11/2 B365 Poor race but I think the Botti runner is better than his current mark and offers a bit of value with only 7 runners. He's only run twice and lto he broke very poorly which put paid to his chance. This is a weaker contest and he steps up an extra mile which should suit based on his breeding and running style. Chris Catlin on board and if Redclue can break well he should have a good chance of winning this.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February Picansort 3.20 Lingfield. 1 point win. Running well, likes the trip and surface and can defy being put up a pound without winning. Should have the race run to suit and be involved in the finish. 9/2 Bet365 (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 11th of February SONORAN SANDS 3.55 Lingfield. 1 point win. Interesting runner and weighted to go close. Fallon booked which suggests a big run is expected and the trip and surface should be fine. Pace of the race should suit throughout, so looks the bet for me. 6/1 Victor Chandler BOG