erhaab1965 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds And as for the Grand National when firms have paid 5 places they've often done it at a loss and simply a PR exercise. I simply don't believe they make a loss on the Grand National. I think its just PR BS whenever they've been cleaned out.All the major firms make profit year after year , I know their turnover is less horse racing based that traditionally but nevertheless they are still able to pay the thousand upon thousands of week in week out , with punters money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds BOG is offered in all shops here in Ireland. The likelihood is that the 4/6 shot will win, thats why its 4/6.. Then if you have the 2nd fav, 3rd fav and 4th fav making up the remaining 3 places? They will be robbed blind.. Not only that but if there were 4 places on offer, far more people will opt away from the odds on fav and back something e/w, as the e/w terms would be far too tempting not to back. I am envious that your shops have BOG , very very few offer that facility , only in areas where a competitors offer it. I'm not sure that the reason for offering the various place terms are based on the principle of your example. In an ideal world horses will finish in the betting order , but that doesn't happen all too often. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Aidymac , do you have Ladbrokes in Ireland ? In their shops they offer 1/3 odds 2 places , 8 runners or more. 1/2 odds over 16 runners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Aidymac , do you have Ladbrokes in Ireland ? In their shops they offer 1/3 odds 2 places , 8 runners or more. 1/2 odds over 16 runners. We have Ladbrokes here in Ireland yip. But they do the normal e/w terms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Don't say that I'm a compulsive whinger , I am just asking a difficult question which I not not had a satisfactory answer to. Its the same with other topics , it is a gambling forum isn't it and not just here to showcase peoples tipping abilities Erhaab, i'm looking for an answer mate and the fact that a knowledgeable bloke like you doesnt know the answer either means its hard to find. Others are just giving their views on EW betting which is not what you asked for really but some discussions do go off topic, you sound frustrated all the time, well to me anyway. I'll keep looking and asking:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Thanks I appreciate your efforts , BH . Upon recalling all my posts on here and reflecting , I think you are right in your assessment that I sound frustrated all the time. Believe it or not I am a frequent loser and don't really get frustrated when I lose. I do get frustrated when justice does not seem to be served , or when it appears that some sort of fiddle is going on. Which is when I usually come on here to get fellow punters views and discuss events. Although at times I appreciate it does look like I'm looking for an argument . I'm sure you'd agree that it would be a dull site if everybody agreed on everything and everybody patted each other on the backs , which is not quite my thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Another reason why I come across as argumentative is I mistakenly assumed everyone on here are seasoned hard core gamblers. I've only just noticed that members age's are displayed beneath their names. On ocassions I've mentioned horses or events which to me are quite recent but actually some of the members were probably at nursery school when the events took place , hence the occasional disagreement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithbeaky Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds My points are VERY on topic. Do you know anything about figures and overrounds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithbeaky Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds BOG is in competition with exchanges. No exchanges and this would not be as widespread or even offered at all. Exchanges have brought down %'s a lot and BOG makes some books overbroke. For you to say it is a gimmick and offers no value is very short sighted. The reason it is not offered in the shops is because traders would make millions if it was. It is only offered online so they can keep a track of your account and then restrict it. As for your 20 runner handicap eg you have not put forward what %'s they have bet to? If they have bet to 120% on the win book and 440% on the place book then why would they offer more than 4 places? I dont mean to be rude but I get the impression you do not understand %'s and being overbroke?? You could argue bookies should take the rough with the smooth but they provide a service and to ask them to guarantee a potential loss on a race is madness. Which business would agree to that? As for the Grand National the only decent result over the last 10 years is Mon Mome, which should've been a skinner, but its not impossible some firms lost on it. Again paying 5 places could make you overbroke on the place book, but then attract more punters and the figures balance themselves a bit with the win percentage. Exchanges changed everything. You mentioned my age earlier, at least im living with the times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithbeaky Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Another reason why I come across as argumentative is I mistakenly assumed everyone on here are seasoned hard core gamblers. I've only just noticed that members age's are displayed beneath their names. On ocassions I've mentioned horses or events which to me are quite recent but actually some of the members were probably at nursery school when the events took place , hence the occasional disagreement. ROFL. I've forgot more than you'll ever know by the looks of this topic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Agree with most of your commentary Keith, apart from one thing. BOG is offered in every shop in Ireland. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithbeaky Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds I see that. Im moving to Ireland tomorrow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithbeaky Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Id just like to add I mean no offence and it does seem to have got a bit heated. But I really dont think you understand the fundamentals. Id be happy to try and explain again. I dont know orginally why it was 1/4 and a 1/5 but I can tell you now it is definitely down to figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithbeaky Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds And i will go on. Southwell tomorrow in the 2:15 there are 14 declared. Now if there were two more runners, both of whom were 100/1+, you think it would be ok to pay 4 places? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Mr Beaky, i dont know which previous forum you landed from but it does seem like you want to wind people up the wrong way most of the time. On the PL we have members of all ages and experience and they are all welcome to ask any questions they need to, we try and help when we can without ridiculing them with condescending replies. Your more than welcome to be part of this forum on that basis, or alternatively return to the place where everyone already knows everthing. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds As no one appears to have an explanation i expect it was just trial and error and market forces Bookies probably found that offering one-third odds or one-half lost them money and offering one-sixth or one-seventh didn't tempt anyone to bet...........so market forces settled at one-quarter and one-fifth as being the range at which people would bet and still give the bookies a chance to make a profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Keithbeaky , I do have a basic understanding of betting percentages and being under/over broke , however I admit to having no knowledge about what traders do or the volumes they deal with , so if you do work in the industry then please enlighten us punters. In the examples I gave , I did say that the prices have their profits built in , so wasn't in anyway suggesting the bookies trade at a guaranteed potential loss. Like I said I have zero knowledge of the volumes traded but in my opinion bookies make a killing on the Grand national each year regardless of what they actually tell the media. I don't think my idea of paying 5 places in massive fields is too ridiculous even though its unlikely to happen . I cannot accept that the profits are similar in 16 runner handicaps as they are in 30 runner hanidcaps. If the first 4 all finished at 16/1 , surely the race with 30 runners will have miles more profit than the 16 runner race , assuming the same volumes were traded on both races. Lastly Keith , I wasn't referring to you when I mention ages , I was merely commenting about myself in general with no specific person i mind. If you think you've forgotten more about the topic than I'll ever know then I'm fine with that , post some more and teach us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithbeaky Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Mr Beaky, i dont know which previous forum you landed from but it does seem like you want to wind people up the wrong way most of the time. On the PL we have members of all ages and experience and they are all welcome to ask any questions they need to, we try and help when we can without ridiculing them with condescending replies. Your more than welcome to be part of this forum on that basis, or alternatively return to the place where everyone already knows everthing. :ok How dare you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithbeaky Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Paying 5 places on 30 runner handicaps would be fine, im sure you can find one or two bookies who pay this. Again the main reason this wouldn't be widespread is traders would abuse this. Apologies you did say the profits were built in. However if the win book is around 112% this does not guarantee the place book is above 400%, which is needed not to be overbroke on the place book. As for on course books displaying 1/6 the odds etc I would guess that some are cowboys but then some would have that when there was a bad ew race. 2:15 at Southwell today is that. So yes there are some cowboys im sure but if you were an on course bookie at Southwell would you bet 1/5 1,2,3 on the 2:15 at Southwell?? So typically on these type of races bookies would bet win only. The people going 1/6 or 1/8 the odds do this to try and still provide an ew option. Please compare the betfair place book with the bookies at the odds. Spiekeroog is 10/1 with 365, which is 2/1 a place, and it is currently trading at around 4/5 a place on Befair. The National is much harder to win on than it was. The race now attracts much classier types in general and this makes it harder to win on as a bookie. Over the last 10 years a lot of winners have been well backed. GTG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Sometimes taking the the lesser place odds my be the better option than the superior place part of an each way bet. Like if you believe your election has no chance of winning but a great chance of placing ,because you are forfiting the win part of or bet. Using your example £20 @4/5 is better than the £10 place part at 2/1. I agree the National in the last 10 years has become more harder to analyze , previously about 80% of the field were out of the handicap carrying the minimum weight , but I still believe its a bookies benefit. The weights are published in February and antepost betting on the event is very active , come post time a lot of these bets don't make the line up. I know a lot recently have all been well backed but surely not to the tune whe they have not made profit. McCoy's winner a couple of years back probably was well backed as anyone would guess but if you recall 15 minutes before the off he was still available at 22/1 before finishing at around 9/1 ish. This to me suggests he wasn't really well backed as the betting move suggested, but the bookies wanted to reduce his SP. As we know most people who are going to have a bet in that race have already got on long before post time. I could be totally wrong but this is my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithbeaky Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Re: 1/4 the odds & 1/5 the odds Or you could have £20ew at 10/1, lay £18 at 11/1(you can currently lay 9/1) in the win market and then you have £20 at 2/1 to place. Then lay £22 at 4/5 a place and hey presto you have £20 a place for NOTHING. So traders will take your £20 at 4/5 all day. This is also why so many people cant get a bet on ew and why they wont change the place terms Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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