Dylan Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Swansea vs Arsenal – Swansea over 1.5 goals 3.75 at Ladbrokes (1 unit) Maybe a bit of a speculative one, but I do think that this Swansea team has the tools to discomfort this makeshift Arsenal defence today. Swansea are very controlled in possession playing it around well in defence and midfield, and with the exception of Song and maybe Ramsey in that Arsenal midfield I can’t see anyone else working that hard or having the defensive ability to break up Swansea’s play. If Swansea can keep the ball then they will be looking to get it wide to Dyer and Sinclair two very pacy wingers. With Djourou still playing as a makeshift right back and the inexperienced youngster Miquel at left back, I think the wingers can upset these two and if they can break past those two then Mertesacker particularly looks vulnerable to pace. Looking at the stats Swansea have scored twice or more at home in four games this season, and have scored in all 3 last home games. Arsenal do concede a few on the road, and have only kept 2 clean sheets on the road, and have conceded twice or more in 5 away games including their most recent one against Fulham. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitch Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Swansea - Arsenal Even though Swansea have a good record at Liberty Stadium and lost only once against Man.United I would not rely on their home record in this game. My main reason is that they haven't played any top sides at home apart from Man.United. I would not consider 1-1 draw at home against Tottenham since the game was played during holidays when Man.United lost at home to Blackburn and Chelsea to Aston Villa. Meanwhile, I wouldn't back Arsenal to win here due to their inconsistent performance. The Gunners did not have two straight wins in their last 10 games, so after beating Leeds in FA Cup a draw here wouldn't surprise me at all. It's interesting that 80% of Swansea home games produced 2 or less goals, while 80% of Arsenal away games produced 3 or more goals. Arsenal has a good front line and I believe they are capable of scoring goals against Swansea, but they do miss some important players in defense, namely Mertesacker and Vermaelen so I definitely can't see them keeping a clean sheet. Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 (3 units) William Hill Regardless of the game's outcome, I have to thank you already :D I've taken my multiple correct score approach with this game and at the start I went for low scores, with high scores breaking even, but after reading what you said, I decided to go for high scores, with low scores breaking even :ok I just hope Swansea don't score 3 goals or more, and that Arsenal don't score 4 goals or more. If neither of those scenarios happen then I'm looking at a huge profit no matter the score line :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beer Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January if swansea can change their 4 defenders for top class defenders , then they can easily play in CL :lol because they loook really good against CL team(Arsenal). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Swansea - Arsenal Even though Swansea have a good record at Liberty Stadium and lost only once against Man.United I would not rely on their home record in this game. My main reason is that they haven't played any top sides at home apart from Man.United. I would not consider 1-1 draw at home against Tottenham since the game was played during holidays when Man.United lost at home to Blackburn and Chelsea to Aston Villa. Meanwhile, I wouldn't back Arsenal to win here due to their inconsistent performance. The Gunners did not have two straight wins in their last 10 games, so after beating Leeds in FA Cup a draw here wouldn't surprise me at all. It's interesting that 80% of Swansea home games produced 2 or less goals, while 80% of Arsenal away games produced 3 or more goals. Arsenal has a good front line and I believe they are capable of scoring goals against Swansea, but they do miss some important players in defense, namely Mertesacker and Vermaelen so I definitely can't see them keeping a clean sheet. Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 (3 units) William Hill Bet won, but I expected Arsenal to do the job not Swansea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadfrog Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Mustafa and Dylan, you are my favourite members on this forum. Congratulations to both you! Great bets! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dylan Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Swansea vs Arsenal – Swansea over 1.5 goals 3.75 at Ladbrokes (1 unit) :ok 2 bets, 2 winners and +4.85 profit in the Premier League so far this weekend. Happy with that. Congrats to all the other winners this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Arsenal should start getting ready for UEFA Europa League for next season because there is no way they will finish in top 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderHead Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Swansea v Arsenal Been struggling to find anything to get involved in today in either game. I'm very wary of taking Swansea on the DNB due to the style of football they play. There style is more likely to suit Arsenal opposed to a Stoke type side who get the ball forward quickly and in the air. If Arsenal were at evens I would be taking them for sure. Swansea have pritty much a full strength squad to choose from for this game. On the other hand Arsenal still have massive problems in defence, but they are helped by having Djourou back from suspension. Mertasacker and Rosicky are also doubts having been ill this week. Anyway, the one thing I can see is the corners market. Both sides play attacking football and both produce plenty of corners. In Swansea's home games there's an average of 11.8 corners and in Arsenals away matches there have been an average of 10.6 corners. So I'll take a punt on over 10 corners at 1.72 (3.50/10) on Bet365 +2.55:nana Wish I'd of backed Swansea for the most corners aswell like I was tempted. +10.05 this round:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H1 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Don't know why but I think it's going to be a difficult afternoon for Arsenal tomorrow at Swansea They have not been impressing lately. Against Leeds, they were quite blunt in attack and failed to create goalscoring chances. And in previous games, against Fulham and QPR, they had their chances but failed to capitalise. Now Henry is back but it's a question whether he is in such a good form. Obviously there is a lot of enthusiasm around, but it's yet to be seen whether he could be the striker he used to be, now that he is 34 and hasn't play Premier League football for 4 years. But it's the Arsenal backline that is very concerning. A host of players will be missing and the back four should be: Djorou, Koscielny, Squilacci, Coquelin. Not impressive, to say the least. Arsenal kept only two clean sheets this season - one against Newcastle in the opening game and the other against Wigan. Now they travel to Swansea, to face a team that have a joint best home defensive record. And apart from that - quick players in Dyer and Sinclair, who certainly can take advantage of Arsenal makeshift defence here. Considering Arsenal absences, their lack of firepower in recent games, and the home solid team, I think that home fans will have something to cheer about come Sunday evening. My selections for the game: Swansea >1.5 goals @3.75 2/10 pts :) Swansea @4.75 2/10 pts :) Swansea + 0.5 @2.08 8/10 pts :) Swansea dnb @ 3.25 3/10 pts :) Swansea to win to nil @7.5 1/10 pts :eyes all bet365 a fantastic game, and a very, very nice profit for me :beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazarkini Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January 127. Newcastle - QPR QPR @ 5,61 Pinnacle CRACKER BET 128. Swansea - Arsenal Swansea win @ 4,50 William Hill I see huge problems for Arsenal to win at Swansea - Tottenham a better side did not win there and despite Henry new spell this is not the same level anymore. Swansea is hard to beat at home, concedes few goals and Arsenal makes many defence or goalkeeping mistakes. Swansea can win today. There is something stinking with Arsenal odds few days ago we had 1,67 on them now nearly 2 - looks like someone huge lays Arsenal and even if they will win he will have big losses but I'm assuming he must know something more than we Good luck As far as Swansea goes I haven't seen such an odds rise for a long time before the game Maybe someone big won on Asian market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Newcastle - QPR Under 2.5 1.910 Pinnacle 5/10 :) QPR+0.75 1.980 Pinnacle 5/10 Lost half Swansea vs Arsenal Arsenal 1.935 Pinnacle 10/10 :( Arsenal -1.5 BF 3.800 3/10:puke 13 units loss. QPR deserved more from the game to say the least, but hey, thats football deviation. Early Arsenal goal again, but yet again managed to lose the game from a goal up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slizorn Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January My selections for the game: Swansea >1.5 goals @3.75 2/10 pts Swansea @4.75 2/10 pts Swansea + 0.5 @2.08 8/10 pts Swansea dnb @ 3.25 3/10 pts Swansea to win to nil @7.5 1/10 pts all bet365 Top calls mate :clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slizorn Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January West Brom vs Norwich 9 out of 10 of West Brom's home games have ended with Under 3.5 cards. Under 3.5 cards is available @ 1.66, but I am taking the slightly higher odds on there to be Under 3.0 Cards. In the event of exactly 3 cards, my stake will be returned. Under 3.0 Cards @ 2.02 bet365 :nana Only one card :lol Chelsea vs Sunderland 9 out of 10 fo Chelsea's home games have ended with Over 2.5 goals this season. I reckon there should be at least 3 goals in this game given the way Chelsea's defense has been a tad shaky of late. Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.69 Coral :( Liverpool vs Stoke 4 of the last 5 Liverpool's home games and 4 out fo 5 of Stoke's away games have seen Over 10 Corners in them. Worth another stab at this trend I reckon. Over 10 Corners @ 1.62 VC :nana 12 corners in total Blackburn vs Fulham All 10 of Blackburn's away games this season have seen both sides score on every occassion. The very fact that their defense is so leaky and fact that there is some disturbance in the Blackburn camp in regards to Samba, I reckon both parties could score in this fixture. Both teams to score - Yes @ 1.72 Skybet :nana Swansea vs Arsenal In Swansea's last 4 out of 5 home games, their opponents have gotten the most cards in the game. Add to this the fact Arsenal are averaging about 1.5 cards more than Swansea it is likely Arsenal will get most cards in this game. With our stake being returned for both teams having the same number of cards, I think this bet has great value. Arsenal (0.0) Asian Card Handicap @ 2.30 bet365 Shocker, no cards in this game. Stake returned. Newcastle vs QPR With Newcastle missing their star player in Demba Ba and QPR averaging just about 1 goal per away game, I have got to fancy the unders in this fixture. Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 bet365 :nana Tottenham vs Wolves Though Tottenham are on a hot streak, last 5 out of 6 of their home games have ended Under 2.5 Goals. And also they have kept a clean sheet in the last 5 out of 6 of their home games. I reckon Tottenham will win 1-0 or 2-0. Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.62 WilliamHill :nana Not bad weekend for a change. 1 loss, 1 stake returned and 5 bets won. Gratz to all winners. Some great shouts by others in the forum this weekend. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDevil92 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Outstanding prizes for Sunderland and Queens Park Rangers in my eyes. Sunderland is the hottest team at the moment, they gained big momentum unter Martin O'Neill. They won 5 and draw and lost just once in all 7 matches unter O'Neill (FA Cup match included). Chelsea is in no good form and furthermore they miss Drogba. I doubt that Essien is able to play from the beginning. QPR fird Warnock and hired Hughes. We all know what a new manager which impact a new manager is capable of doing. They miss Barton and Faurlin, ok but they should show much better football and getting at least a point. They couls sign new players until sunday. Newcastle will be without top striker Ba who scored 15 out of their 29 Premier League goals. Despite that, their best midfielder Tiote is also not available. So two singles for me: Sunderland AH+1,5 @1,78 3/10 ladbrokes QPR AH+0,75 @1,91 4/10 pinnacle GL Sunderland bet won, QPR half loss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderHead Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Don't know why but I think it's going to be a difficult afternoon for Arsenal tomorrow at Swansea They have not been impressing lately. Against Leeds, they were quite blunt in attack and failed to create goalscoring chances. And in previous games, against Fulham and QPR, they had their chances but failed to capitalise. Now Henry is back but it's a question whether he is in such a good form. Obviously there is a lot of enthusiasm around, but it's yet to be seen whether he could be the striker he used to be, now that he is 34 and hasn't play Premier League football for 4 years. But it's the Arsenal backline that is very concerning. A host of players will be missing and the back four should be: Djorou, Koscielny, Squilacci, Coquelin. Not impressive, to say the least. Arsenal kept only two clean sheets this season - one against Newcastle in the opening game and the other against Wigan. Now they travel to Swansea, to face a team that have a joint best home defensive record. And apart from that - quick players in Dyer and Sinclair, who certainly can take advantage of Arsenal makeshift defence here. Considering Arsenal absences, their lack of firepower in recent games, and the home solid team, I think that home fans will have something to cheer about come Sunday evening. My selections for the game: Swansea >1.5 goals @3.75 2/10 pts Swansea @4.75 2/10 pts Swansea + 0.5 @2.08 8/10 pts Swansea dnb @ 3.25 3/10 pts Swansea to win to nil @7.5 1/10 pts all bet365 Well done, cracking calls :clap Well done to everyone on Swansea in some form aswell Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a713n Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January does anyone know of a good app for the iPhone that lets me calculate my returns ??? i use Bet Calc World (free) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a713n Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January is it an iPhone app ? the only one i can find is PermCalc http://appshopper.com/link/perm-calc it looks good, but they want 99pence for it i want a free one Yep its for iPhone and free. http://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/bet-calc-world/id451438869?mt=8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a713n Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January no worries :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Wigan - Man City Going to take this one early after some early thought: Starting with City, they have looked very average to say the least in recent games. Silva and Toure was especially missed. They should have Silva back for this game though, but Kompany will still be suspended. Wigan themselves have a near full squad, with Diame probably the biggest miss. A few weeks ago i'd look at this fixture and say Wigan will break apart easily and 0 - 4 or 0 - 3 is highly likely, however in recent games they have started to create chances, and Moses looks a real player with "tricks aplenty". However as with their 1 - 4 defeat at home against sunderland, they can easily conceade more after the first one pops in. However, they are quite resisliant when 0 - 0 or a goal down. (Sunderlands first goal was due to freak weather conditions at the DW), though take no credit away from Gardner. Not a big build up to this game, but looking at Man City's form I cannot find a reason to back them on handicap with confidence, as they simply dont look like they can tear a team to pieces like earlier this season. I may be wrong, they have players capable of scoring from nothing, but the odds are in favour. Thus: Under 2.5 2.300 10/10 Wigan +1.25 1.855 Pinnacle 10/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazze2 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Game - Wigan vs Man City Selection - Man City to win @1.45 with Betfair Units - 10 Reason - Manchester City is the top team and have been playing very well , they have been unlucky in a few games but i think they will take this game . They are away so should play with a little bit more fear of losing and as a result take the game. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Wigan v Man City - Draw @ 4.80 Betfair Wigan have had a couple of decent results of late after securing home draws against Liverpool and Chelsea. Conversely, City have slipped on the road with 2 losses and 2 draws from their last 4 away fixtures. Traditionally I find that Wigan will either collapse in these types of games, or put in a really strong showing. City are deserving favourites but I think the draw offers some value given how tough Wigan often play the big teams at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zacharael Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Considering all what it was said so far about the absences in the Newcastle vs. QPR game I'm gonna be jumping most probably on this fixture today but I won't stop at betting just on goals and I'll go into the card market also. C J Foy, the referee of this game has a loose hand sometimes, and sometimes he just holds the cards in his pocket. It would be risky I guess to be taking the total cards market, but instead I will be taking QPR to pick more cards than Newcastle. In last 5 games Newcastle picked 7 Yellow cards and 0 Red cards while QPR on the other hand has received 10 Yellow and 1 Red. Also this season, C J Foy refereed one of QPR's games where he handed out 9 Yellow and 2 Red cards ( Even tho' most of them went to Chelsea) and once on one of Newcastle's games ( vs. Manchester City) where he didn't pull out any card at all. Statistics favor this so I'll take Newcastle to be more disciplined than QPR. QPR -0.5 Cards @ 1,87 [3 Units] with Bet365 Half Time Under 1,5 Goals @ 1,40 [2 Units] with Bet365 Good luck everyone! :cheers Easy win! +3,41 ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiderHead Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Wigan v Man City I don't see any value in backing Man City at those odds considering there poor recent performances. Without Kompany and Toure they look a much weaker side. The two markets that got my attention were the corner and booking markets. On average in Wigans home games there have been 44 booking points and in Man Citys away games 43.5. The referee for the game is Martin Atkinson who averages 3.38 yellow cards a match. So I took over 3.5 cards at 1.72 (5/10) Bet365 So far this season Wigan's home games have featured 12 corners per game. In Man City's away games there have been an average of 11.3 corners. Both sides play an open style of football which I feel will produce plenty of corners. I've taken over 10 corners at 1.72 (5/10) on Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Wigan v Man City - Draw @ 4.80 Betfair Wigan have had a couple of decent results of late after securing home draws against Liverpool and Chelsea. Conversely, City have slipped on the road with 2 losses and 2 draws from their last 4 away fixtures. Traditionally I find that Wigan will either collapse in these types of games, or put in a really strong showing. City are deserving favourites but I think the draw offers some value given how tough Wigan often play the big teams at home. Just want to add that it is quite common for top teams to lose to bottom placed teams. I remember last year Man.United were top of the table and they lost 1-2 away against bottom placed Wolves. Wigan @ 8.00 (1 unit) William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garyfinny Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Having looked at it, I'd have to agree. City are missing both Toures - that is a huge miss, and also Kompany (suspension). Silva and Balotelli are doubts with injury but may make the game. City are pretty depleted and despite all their spending Wigan will fancy their chances. Wigan have huge variance, some decent performances among some bad ones. Still, I can't help thinking the odds are misplaced here a little. Top of the table teams on a good run would be priced around 1.4 here. Man City are facing their first real blip of the season and this game is a potential banana skin. I can see them scraping a win but not being fluent, but for me, there is good value in opposing them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportxtipster Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Wigan vs Manchester City You maybe know about that stat that says that when the last team placed in a league plays against the first team in that league on home ground, 65% of the matches are ended 1x. Chesterfield to Burton last year, United to Wolves, Zwolle to Almere, etc. The long list of unavailability of the City players is making me think to a low scoring match, totally different than what we had here when City played away. under 3 goals @ 1.83 with 10bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Newcastle - QPR under 2.5 @ 1.90 :D Swansea - Arsenal under 2.5 @ 1.80 :( Season record: 92-112 (+9.80) Wigan - Man City under 2.5 @ 2.30 pinnacle Wigan sit on the bottom with 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 games, but they have drawn against misfiring Liverpool and Chelsea, so they will not be afriad of Man City coming to their ground, especially as they are missing several key players. Man City are coming off successive defeats to Man Utd and Liverpool in the cup, but they get back to business in the one that matters for them. A win here and they go outright second, and though they have some players out, they do have plenty of quality. Their defence has conceded in just one of their last 5 games, but a concern is that they have not won in their last 4 away games, with 3 of these games going under. While they may edge this, Wigan will not make it easy, and doubt that this is a high scoring game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January I have to admit I can't really see past a comfortable Man City win. Yes their main men this season in Toure and Kompany are missing but De Jong comes in who was their main man last season and hasn't had a chance this year. He is perfectly capable of filling Toure's boots and is one of the best players at disrupting the play. Their defence is missing Kompany which is a big loss but Wigan don't exactly score many goals and they have failed to score against City in their last 4 games and have only scored once against them in their last 6 games. Wigan come into this on the back of arguably their worst performance of the season getting beat 4-1 by Sunderland at home and Man City come into this after beating Liverpool 3-0 without playing that well. They know they have to win because Man Utd won on Saturday and Silva looks like he may return tonight. One of the players of the season so far and is vital to Man City. Think a front 3 of Nasri, Aguero and Silva will be too much for Wigan's brittle defence and I expect a comfortable away win for Man City. Man City (-1) - 5pts (max bet) @ 10/11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThusPrider Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Man City odds shortening dramatically... It seems whenever I take a pick early the odds always seem to drift off... When i take it later, i could of had it earlier with better odds! Sometimes odds drift right before my eyes just as im about to take it! Backed Wigan +1.25 @ 1.855, now its at 2.125... that is some serious driftage. Maybe I should become a betfair trader and LAY everything I intended to bet for, and then trade it off later when the odds drift :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Re: England > Weekend > Premier League > 14-16 January Wigan are rubbish! They had a few good results in recent times but i would be surprised if City didnt win this by at least 2 goals. They are missing a few but even their bench is far superior to any of Wigan's starting 11, will be a dull atmosphere, City -1 is the way to go for this one, as much as i hate to say it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.