Tennis 8th-15th Jan

[danytz186]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Sport	Tennis
Event	Varvara Lepchenko - Elitsa Kostova
Selection	2
Strength	10/10
Date	13/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 4.33
Reasoning	Second round at the Australian Open qualifiers brings us an interesting meeting between the lefty Varvara Lepchenko from the USA and righty Elitsa Kostova from Bulgaria. I think at this price it is worth it in my oppinion, and I will tell why. Lepchenko now ranked 127th in the world who has been in pro from 2001 hasn`t been abble to go over 74th place (best one yet, in 2010). Just by looking at her career so far you can tell that her base surface is outdoor hardcourt but still in recent years she has played mainly ITFs, for example last season she finished with a 16-14 record with 1 title (ITF) and another final where she had do deal only once with a player around top80, the rest were over 140 WTA. In the first round she beat Marino (191 WTA) in straight sets, 6-1, 6-0. On the other side we have Kostova who is ranked 157th, constantly advancing in the rankings as the years go by. This is her first tournament of the season and even though she is looking more like a claycourt player, she played enough on hard to, I know not at the big level but still I think she`s got a pretty good idea. In the first round she beat Sanders (663wta), 7-5, 6-3. The reason that I pick Kostova over Lepchenko even though the experience is clearly with the american (and so the odds show) is because I think that there is a reason that Varvara has never entered in the top50 (not even top70) and that is because she makes way to many unforced errors in a match where we add that inconsistancy in her serve. Win

[totse]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Event	Azarenka V. - Li N.
Selection	Li N.
Strength	10/10
Date	13/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.43
Reasoning	Na Li leads 4-2 head to head against Azarenka. Na Li has impressive match yesterday taking in the semis world number 2 in WTA rankings Petra Kvitova. The Chinese hold 7-0 record so far this year. On the other hand Azarenka also keeps good fit but she had problems against Radwanska yesterday failing 1-6 in opening set. Na Li can not be underestimate because she won this tournament last year, also did with Australian open, so when she plays in Australia is showing excellent fit.

[totse]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Event	Ivanova E. - Chang K.
Selection	Ivanova E.
Strength	10/10
Date	13/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.25
Reasoning	World number 151 Ivanova from Russia against world number 149 Chang of China this should be tough match. Yesterday Ivanova showed good tennis taking world number 127 her fellow country Pivovarova in straight sets 6-3 6-3. Ivanova is very confident player she record her big succes two months ago in Moscow hard court taking world number 14 Jelena Jankovis through her way. On the other hand Chang lost two of past three matches this year she failed against 41 years old Date-Krum in straight sets, while in Brisbane qualifications earlier this year has lost against world number 147 Karatancheva in straight sets 6-4 6-2. Chang is four years younger 20 yo but I expect that to be tricky match and big serving of the Russian may be the key here.

[totse]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Event	Knapp K. (Ita) - Nara K. (Jpn)
Selection	Nara K. (Jpn)
Strength	10/10
Date	13/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Unibet @ 2.10
Reasoning	Another clay courter against hard courter clash as these two never played between before. The Italian Knapp world number 161 in WTA rankings played only 9 games on this kind of surface past year. In 2010 Knapp did not played anyone match on hard court, while she obviously prefers clay playing 47 matches on clay past year and 39 in the year before. Knapp will face world number 145 the Japanese is 20 years old four years younger than her rival today. On the other hand Nara is typical hard court player she played 7 matches on clay past year and did not passed by ten matches since she turned pro on clay. However Nara hold 20-13 and 23-14 win-loss record in past two years on this kind of surface. Yesterday Nara defeat Karatancheva who is in very good fit and also play very well on Hard. I remember Karatancheva defeat Venus Williams in 2006 before she has been catch with drugs.

[Bepster]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan Money on Na LI must have been pouring in by the boat load. She is now to be had at 2.10 at Bet365. Well. Took her yesterday at a better price, let's see if it will take off. :hope

[bigson22]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Think this is a great bet for tomorrow ; - Fish vs Melzer : Over 22.5 games @ 2.09 Pinnacle (7/10) These two players have played each other 5 times with Melzer surprising leading 4-1in H2H, though none of these matches were last year when Fish really found his game. The one fact from the 5 games that really sticks out is each went to 3 sets and easily beat the above line. Both are good enough servers, especially Fish and i expect to see very few breaks of serve on a quick court. Again both had good results in their first game in this exhibition beating Tsonga & Raonic so they seem to have found a bit of form after a few shakey results each but with this line as it is even a 7-6 6-4 covers it so i'm backing it with confidence.

Never in doubt!! :nana

[lukey2]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Money on Na LI must have been pouring in by the boat load. She is now to be had at 2.10 at Bet365. Well. Took her yesterday at a better price, let's see if it will take off. :hope

Might go to waste, hope she can fight back like she did against Kvitova

[Bepster]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan Na Li lost. I am baffled about the third set. To me Li looked like the sure winner after the beat down in the second but somehow let it slip in the tail end of the set. Got my WTA :spank today, went too heavy on Li... :(

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Istomin to beat Nieminen @ 2.30 with Pinnacle:wall:wall Na Li to beat Azarenka @ 2.41 with Pinnacle:wall:wall Nishikori to beat Roddick @ 2.50 with Pinnacle:ok:ok

Could have easily been 3/3. Ah well...

[HeresTheKey]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

i jumped that train too with low odds although bookies are rarely wrong in such occasions("obvious" ratings for us punters) so V. Azarenka vs N. Li @ 2,47 (3/10):cry

as i said, in these cases bookies are right, we are wronf.i hope someday be more brave and use that knowledge total : + 5,73 units

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Na Li +3 games AH vs Azarenka @ 1.980 (Pinnacle:5pts).....:) Na Li to bt Azarenka @ 2.610 (Pinnacle:1pt)......:eyes

+3.9 pts for the final, with the handicap covered. Match was there for the taking in the 3rd set, Azarenka went into safe mode waiting for errors, while Na duly obliged, match-up is on her racquet I feel. Happy enough with that anyway.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan BTW, FULL STAKES Dimitrov to beat Chardy @ 1.85 with Bwin This needs to be taken straight away, as the line is a complete nonsense. Chardy is struggling, Dimitrov on the rise and there is a huge gap of class between the two. Dimitrov is an upcoming top 30 player (at least), while Chardy is just going down and down through the rankings.

[DRG]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan Marach/Peya tb. G.G.L/Verdasco @1.83 VOID Na Li tb. Azarenka @2.37;6/10 LOST Wickmayer -3.5 games tb. Peer @2 ; 7/10 WON TOTAL: +1 Was unlucky with the reschedule of the play in Auckland due to the rain ,'cause I'm sure the austrians would have won as well,and the profit could have been a little bigger.

[Alovenac]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Big stakes tonight! See much value in this matches. (4/10) Schuettler tb. Kudryavtsev @ 1.70 Betsson :@ (5/10) De Voest tb. Dystrov @ 1.50 Nordicbet :clap (6/10) Sugita tb. Naso CS: 2-0 @ 1.80 StanJames :clap (7/10) Baghdatis tb. Benneteau @ 1.60 Tipico

:@ Baggy great fixer, dramatic..

[Bepster]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

BTW, FULL STAKES Dimitrov to beat Chardy @ 1.85 with Bwin This needs to be taken straight away, as the line is a complete nonsense. Chardy is struggling, Dimitrov on the rise and there is a huge gap of class between the two. Dimitrov is an upcoming top 30 player (at least), while Chardy is just going down and down through the rankings.

Wow, great find. The book I use, Bet365 isn't offering that match at all I think and at Bwin it's already down to 1.60 CP, you think it's still value?

[ImLovinIt]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan Nieminen vs Benneateau - Nieminen to win @ 11/10 with Ladbrokes - 4 Points Quite simple really, both player's are pretty much playing at to the best of their game, both at their best would culminate in there only being one winner and that's Jarko. I watched both their previous matches and quite frankly, I've never seen Istomin play so well, Jarko did really well to scrape through that first set, amazing clutch play at times. Benne against Baggy was good in patches but some what relied on Baggies eratic play to get him through in the end, yes Benne hustled but Niem's is a better player AND HUSTLER. Benne's serve is not as good as Istomin's has been recently. Jarko also leads the head to head 4-0.

[Galileo]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

BTW, FULL STAKES Dimitrov to beat Chardy @ 1.85 with Bwin This needs to be taken straight away, as the line is a complete nonsense. Chardy is struggling, Dimitrov on the rise and there is a huge gap of class between the two. Dimitrov is an upcoming top 30 player (at least), while Chardy is just going down and down through the rankings.

Yes the line is real good. Probably a consequence of Dimitrov's retirement last Saturday in the 2nd round of Sidney Qualifs. The retirement was due to "exhaustion", that is, he had already played two matches on Friday at the Hopman Cup in Perth an after a five-hour flight won a first round Qualif match on Saturday. Just couldn't complete next round on the same day... No reason he hasn't recovered since. The line is @1.66 with Bet365 at the moment.

[Bepster]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Yes the line is real good. Probably a consequence of Dimitrov's retirement last Saturday in the 2nd round of Sidney Qualifs. The retirement was due to "exhaustion", that is, he had already played two matches on Friday at the Hopman Cup in Perth an after a five-hour flight won a first round Qualif match on Saturday. Just couldn't complete next round on the same day... No reason he hasn't recovered since. The line is @1.66 with Bet365 at the moment.

I really want to jump on this but can for the life of me not find the match on Bet365... weird... :wall EDIT: Found it!

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan Some interesting matches for today, although I am not overly keen to play them with higher stakes. So follow at your peril. Smyczek to beat Zopp @ 1.94 with Pinnacle Zopp might be more talented, but Smyczek is on fire with wins against Bohli and Jaziri, while Zopp had some very tough matches against worse opponents Ignatik and Rodrigues. Might also be a little bit tired, as both of his matches went into overtime (9-7 and 11-9). Nielsen to beat Bolleli @ 1.97 with Pinnacle We have seen enough from Nielsen at the Hopman Cup and it seems that he has taken that form further in Melbourne. Two straightforward wins against Ram and Luczak, who are not the easiest opponents ever. Meanwhile, Bolleli almost lost to Lammer and Kravchuk. Gojowczyk to beat De Bakker @ 2.40 with Pinnacle No reason for these odds, Gojowczyck has a 2-1 H2H lead against De Bakker and easy victories against Burquier and Zemlja suggest that he has improved in the off-seasons. De Bakker struggling to get a grip against Marti and Brown, not sure he is going to be that lucky again. Bratchikova to beat Khromacheva @ 1.47 with Pinnacle Uncharacteristically low odds for me, but there is a huge gap in quality here. You see, Khromacheva is a sixteen year-old girl that had a great run here thanks to her opponents not performing, but I am not sure what can she do against someone who has defeated the likes of Czink, Johansson or Zakopalova lately.

[HeresTheKey]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan my focus tonight is in monfills.what a loser.he keeps disapointing me lately (against Tsonga and Rodick too-though he managed finally to beat the american, he was pure crap and just lucky-76 76). their head to head is 4-0 for the clown but out of these matches only one was one hard. meltzer who beat tsonga in this tournament can do the damage and i believe he ll be more motivated J. Melzer (+3) vs G. Monfils @ 1,952 (5/10)

[sportxtipster]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan 5 for me tonight: Gojowczyk vs De Bakker 3 times have met these two and the German won 2 and lost hardly in the first one. Destroyed Burguier with 80% points won with the first serve and then, Zemlja, but a lower service, just 65% (which we know is pretty good). De Bakker had problems with Javier Marti and Dustin Brown. This is mainly a bet against De Bakker which doesn't seems to be in form and should lose the match! Gojowczyk @ 2.50 with William Hill Ferrer vs Rochus Rochus has been fantastic and he might get something here. I wanted to play him on +5.5 games! NO! He deserves 5 units from me, half of my usual stake translated in money, to win this tournament. Ferrer will be teased by this little guy and his ambition. I think the odds are crazy and contrary the respect he deserves. I wanted to take Rochus last night when he had 4 the odd, but stopped for a stupid reason (I said that he must be tired after so many games played), but now I will take him at odds 9.35! Rochus @ 9.35 with Pinnacle Sports Kuznetsov vs Sugita Kuznetsov won against two guys that were clearly inferior with around 52% of the points won with the first serve. he has a pretty goods serve and has a morale advantage against Sugita winning twice against him. Sugita instead showed pace and control today against Naso. he has a magic season so far and I see him through in the next round. Talked about him yesterday about the players he won against ... Sugita @ 1.80 with 888sports Nielsen vs Bolleli The Danish is looking better for now and I think he will win against teh Italian. Bolleli had problems in the first two matches, while Nielsen showed strength and power against his opponents. A much taller guy Nielsen, a good serve, 3-4 chances the break offered to his opponents. Not the same attitude and results to Bolleli which is lucky to still be in Australian Open. Nielsen @ 2.00 with StanJames Fish vs Tomic The line was covered in the 3 meetings they had so far. Both these guys played fantastic and the audience will be blessed with another spectacular match with situation changes and great points. Normally should be 3 sets, but I cover here also a possibility of two tight sets! over 22.5 @ 1.90 with Pinnacle Sports

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan Yanina Wickmayer -2.5 vs Mona Barthel. 1.85 @ Bwin (6/10) Barthel was really lucky in her semifinal as poor Kerber did not want to fight. She failed to serve out the 2nd set and wasted something like 3 set points on her won serve, including one in tie-break. First career final will be tough mentally for Barthel. Wickmayer is playing really good. 7-6, 6-3 is not the right reflection of what was going on agaist Shahar Peer. Wickmayer donated quite a few games and should have won 6-3, 6-1. I think -2.5 games is wrong here as she can win at least 6-4, 7-6. Or even cover this line in three sets. They have played once before. It was also on hard courts. Wickmayer beat Barthel 6-3, 7-6 in a Challenger tournament in Belgium. Jarkko Niemien > Julien Benneteau. 2.20 @ Bwin (5/10) Baghdatis was so, so poor yesterday gifting Benny a win in the semifinal. Nieminen had an average match as well, but at least he played the big points better. Benneteau is 30 years and has not managed to win a title thus far and I don't think he ever will. Have to have really crap opponent in the final. He's lost all five finals he's played and has lost all five matches against Niemimen. For me Jarkko has got slightly better serve (it was missing at times yesterday, though) and that should help him win this one.

[totse]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Event	Ferrer D. (Esp) - Rochus O. (Bel)
Selection	over 19.5 (Asian-handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	14/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 2.20
Reasoning	Well Ferrer seems to be hot right now but he lost one set against Falla in the quarters. As we know Falla is not good on this kind of surface. On the other hand Rochus reach that final after playing one match more four, the last three he took in three sets, but most important is that he played five tiebreaks in four matches and other two sets finished 7-5. However Ferrer lead 5-2 head to head but it was exciting that five years ago Rochus took Ferrer here in Auckland 6-2 6-0 in quarters. I don't want to underestimate Ferrer who definitely is class but if Rochus put one set at least 7-5 this match goes over the line.

[totse]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Event	Fish - Tomic
Selection	Tomic
Strength	10/10
Date	14/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.20
Reasoning	Well world number 8 in ATP Mardy Fish has easy way to this final facing Raonic and Melzer who are out of 20 in ATP rankings, even that Fish has problems against Melzer dropping one set. On the other hand the biggest local hope Tomic elliminated world number 7 Berdych and world number 15 Monfils through his way to this final. Tomic is just 19 years old with the crowd behind him he will has extremely bigger motivation than 30 years old Fish. Fish leads 2-1 head to head but the last one in Shanghai masters few months ago finished 4-6 6-4 6-1 for Tomic who also show great fit at this tournament. I want to remember that Fish failed 6-2 6-1 against world number 76 Dimitrov past week in Perth at Hopman Cup when the crowd put him nervous.

[totse]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Event	Wickmayer Y. - Barthel M.
Selection	Wickmayer Y
Strength	10/10
Date	14/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Betsafe @ 1.65
Reasoning	Wickmayer is world number 29, while Barthel is world number 64 in WTA rankings. Wickmayer did not lose even a set here she showed very good tennis, big serving, good forehand and backhand she covers all over the court. On the other hand Barthnel hold very good record this year 8-1 but shed played against weak opponents. Wickmayer leads 1-0 head to head that was 2 years ago but on the same kind of surface. The Belgium stopped here Peer and Halep who are definitely better than Barthel so it is easy for me to back her.

[danytz186]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Sport	Tennis
Event	Julien Benneteau - Jarkko Nieminen
Selection	2
Strength	10/10
Date	14/01/2012
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.27
Reasoning	This season`s final of the ATP Sydney will be played between the frenchman Julien Benneteau and finnish Jarkko Nieminen (left-hander). They have allready met 4 times (1 on clay and 3 on hardcourt) before and in all of them Nieminen came on top. Benneteau is now ranked 49th in the world (career high 32nd in 2010) rounding up some wins after he lost in his opening match of the season at Brisbane in the first round to Tomic in tree sets. Here in Sydney he dealed with difficult players like Seppi, F. Lopez, Bogomolov and Baghdatis who he beat in straight sets. Nieminen, just world number 77 (career high 13th in 2006) is having a very decent start of the season with allready 1 final in two tournaments. Despite lacking very important results in hardcourt (outdoors) tournaments he is still a quality player and he proved that here, coming from qualifiers (beating Delic, Begemann and Robert) just to get the streak going with wins against Duckworth, Stepanek, Reynolds and Istomin. Counting the fact that Nieminen has never lost against Benneteau who got most of his important results on hardcourt-indoors (not outdoors), I think there is a pretty good chance that the finn could strike here as well. Win Jarkko Nieminen is my pick.

[HeresTheKey]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

my focus tonight is in monfills.what a loser.he keeps disapointing me lately (against Tsonga and Rodick too-though he managed finally to beat the american, he was pure crap and just lucky-76 76). their head to head is 4-0 for the clown but out of these matches only one was one hard. meltzer who beat tsonga in this tournament can do the damage and i believe he ll be more motivated J. Melzer (+3) vs G. Monfils @ 1,952 (5/10):ok

monfills once again showed what a great player could be if he just wanted.he lost 2-1 acting once again like a child. total : +10,49

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan

Smyczek to beat Zopp @ 1.94 with Pinnacle:wall:wall Nielsen to beat Bolleli @ 1.97 with Pinnacle:ok:ok Gojowczyk to beat De Bakker @ 2.40 with Pinnacle :ok:ok Bratchikova to beat Khromacheva @ 1.47 with Pinnacle:ok:ok

Good enough, although Smyczek should have won the third.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan Actually, will take one to round the day off. Benneteau (-2) to beat Nieminen @ 2.00 with Pinnacle I get the fact that the H2H speaks against him, but I have seen both guys yesterday and Benneteau was a class above Nieminen, who should have lost imo. Beating Lopez, Seppi and Baghdatis in straight sets is not bad at all either. Edit: This has been moved to 10 AM Sydney time (Sunday)

[HeresTheKey]

Re: Tennis 8th-15th Jan my match tonight is the new young power from Bulgaria to beat jeremy chardy. Dimitrov has lost from Jeremy(the only time they have met) but this was on clay.I cannot see him lose in hard.I saw his match against Raonic in Stockholm and he was very decent.Raonic is not Chardy and i expect the Bulgarian to be hugely motivated for this. They say he is the new Federer and even if he is not he will the job tonight J. Chardy vs G. Dimitrov @ 1,61 (9/10)