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The 2011 King George - Boxing Day

Jimmy2shoes

By Jimmy2shoes
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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Jimmy2shoes

Jimmy2shoes

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Lets Ave it.... Who wins ? It sure looks a cracker, can he do it ? The roar from the crowd that will go up if living legand Kauto Star takes it up will be MIND BLOWING. I also feel its early in anyone that can write off Captain Chris, he could be a cracking e/w value bet 8/1 at Lads but only a fifth a place. Any views ? Come on pull up a chair lets have your thoughts. And listen, Help yurself tae they mince pies. mince_pies.jpg

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fintron

fintron

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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day about time we had a thread for this, good call Jimmy. I put Long Run in my fantasy jumps teams at the start of the year thinking he was nailed on for this but didnt expect Kauto to return to winning ways last time and thought his days were up. Captain Chris adds spice to the race, as does Master Minded, but the stamina for both of the last two is on doubt and, in the case of Master Minded, perhaps not factored into the price. Suppose you could make a case for CC from a value perspective but he needs Kauto and Long Run to underperform to win. I've backed Kauto EW at 9/2 ante post as I thought he'd make the three and he'd be an EW bet nothing, but still think Long Run is the most likely winner, and should come on for his last run. Will be cheering Kauto on, backed him last year at evs when he flopped and have never actually been on him when he's won a race. Normally looked to take him on and never really touch odds on, so apologies in advance to his army of fans for my little personal jinx there! Bring it on.

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switzerland

switzerland

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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day Cracking race. Probably one to watch rather than punt. If pushed for a bet I'd probably go with Somersby ew at 12/1. I think Long Run will win (but he's a bit short) and its hard to see Kauto out of the frame. Captain Chris is a bit of class but 8/1 is probably about right. I'm sure some people will scoff at Somersby but I'd ignore his last run and the 3m should suit. If he drifts out from 12s I'll have a tickle.

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Jimmy2shoes

Jimmy2shoes

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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day

Cracking race. Probably one to watch rather than punt. If pushed for a bet I'd probably go with Somersby ew at 12/1. I think Long Run will win (but he's a bit short) and its hard to see Kauto out of the frame. Captain Chris is a bit of class but 8/1 is probably about right. I'm sure some people will scoff at Somersby but I'd ignore his last run and the 3m should suit. If he drifts out from 12s I'll have a tickle.
Henrietta Knight is such a nice lady and it would be great to see her win a race like this again. She's not had a great year what with Terry taken not well, it would be such a great sight seeing her lift the King George, what a way to end a year. I for one really do hope she has a better year in 2012
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fosterbet5

fosterbet5

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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day i with everyone will be cheering the king that is kauto star the true star on to make history and show henderson and his runner whos boss ! as much as hes my favourite horse , i think long runs going to have him :( but if we all belive in kautos last shot and will him on enough dreams can come true ;) is it bad i may end up willing long run to make a mistake or two on his way around :/ hahah

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cpo

cpo

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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day I can't see past Long Run this time but that's what I thought in the Betfair chase. I can't see Kauto being as good as he was plus I can see Long Run being a little better than he was so therefore a reversal in the form. Like everyone I would love to see Kauto win but just can't see it this time. Quite tempted by a Long Run/Captain Chris forecast.

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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day Quote: Originally Posted by tedthewolf Sneaking feeling for Denman really don't fancy the first two in the betting! "Been on the pop then Ted " Nah its the stress of xmas shopping Pete. :$ should have read Master Minded not Denman obviously. I just think Kauto was in mint condition lto and not so sure the 11yo will produce the same performance or near it as for Long Run i simply can't have his jockey not good enough to be on a horse of this class imo and i feel he could cost the horse here.

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twinny

twinny

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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day not sure of the winner,i wont be on kauto this time,this is a quallity field includeing the 2 big ousiders,i think there might be an interest bet in dutching(if thats the right phrase) the 3 outsiders in the place market currently trading @ 9,9 and 3.6,which will give you evens for one of them to grab a place,just my thoughts

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salmonfisher

salmonfisher

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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day LONG RUN WINS .......just . Long Run with a proper jockey on board would win this by 12 lengths,but with amateur onboard i see a close finish.Kauto will be ridden prominently, with Ruby giving horse plenty of time to jump early on then increase the pressure on Long Runs jumping later on,if Long Run prevails then i expect Masterminded to be on the scene waiting to challenge.......Long Run will be off the bridle at this point and i see him just outlasting Masterminded by 2 lengths with Kauto a distant third. PS I hope i'm wrong and Kauto wins by 10 !!! :rollin

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mowgli77

mowgli77

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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day

Looks to be some cash about now for Captain Chris :hope
Probably more to follow, stayed on really well at Punchestown. For me the question is not if it will get 3m but "Is it good enough to beat Long Run and Kauto Star?" I think it could be, will be getting on it each way probably. Somersby consistent but lacks something for me, one I always look to take on. Long Run very good but throws in the odd jumping error, if it runs to last years form it wins by 10 lengths. Master Minded classy, trip a doubt but could place. Don't fancy any of the outsiders at any price.
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Kithanga

Kithanga

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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day It's a fascinating race. Long Run deserves to be fav but I am concerned about his jumping as he hit three at Haydock and usually has at least on bad blunder. Last year in this race was a rare clear round for him when it was Kauto who made the mistake 2 out. At 11-8 there's no margin in the price for me so with the dead 8 runners and most bookies going 1/4 the odds I'm going to chance Captain Chris each way at 7-1.

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benreado

benreado

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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day I'm in agreement with mowgli77 that the trip won't be an issue for Captain Chris. His pedigree suggests he'll stay 3M+ and there's nothing I've seen from the horse so far that suggests he won't get the trip. If anything I think he'll improve for the longer trip because he always seems full of running at the end of the race. He finished a 1/2 length second to Medermit in a novice chase at Sandown over 2M5F last season and was closing on winner right up to the line. The only reason he didn't win that day was for some awful jumping mistakes at the start. In the build up to the race people have been quick enough to point out Long Run's jumping issues but for me Captain Chris' lack of fluency at fences is a bigger problem and if he's hitting every other fence in a race like the King George he'll be found out. The other thing that puts me off backing him is his less than perfect preparation with him missing races due to this "horse flu" he's had. I think the animal will run into a place but I don't think he'll be good enough on the day to beat Long Run. Another horse I think has good place claims is Somersby. He's another horse that's been crying out for a step up in trip and whilst he won't improve more than a couple of lbs that should be enough imo to get a place. I don't think Master Minded will stay (especially if he's ridden prominently as Daryl has claimed he will be) and I've got a lot of doubts about Kauto. Kauto Star clearly still has a lot of ability but Haydock was his Gold Cup and the King George was an after thought. The Betfair chase will have taken a lot out of him and I would be very surprised if he could match (or come close) to that performance. After last years Gold Cup Kauto went to Punchestowns and was pulled up. Even in 2008 after his Gold Cup win Kauto was beaten a month later at Aintree. Paul Nicholls said last summer he wouldn't run a horse again in the same season after a Gold Cup in the future. By running Kauto a month after "his Gold Cup" I think he's effectively doing that and I think he may regret it. There's nothing that would please me more than seeing Kauto win the King George again and I really hope Nicholls can prove me wrong but as short as 3-1 I'm happy to take him on. I can't see Diamond Harry, Golan Way or Nacarat being anywhere near good enough but I'm glad there in the race because there all horses that will be prominent and will ensure there's a truly run race. I think at 11/8 even with his jumping problems Long Run is good value and Somersby at 10/1 with SportingBet in the market without the favorite is also good value imo.

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Trotter

Trotter

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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day Master Minded for me at 7/1 Been aimed at this and seems to have been given a different preparation this year so he peaks later than usual. Was well beaten on his seasonal debut and still looked in need of the run at Ascot. Has won 8 grade one races so is obviously top class and this flat 3 miles could be right up his street now he's lost a bit of pace and gained stamina as he's got older. Long Run - current Champ has to be respected and difficult to see anything beating him if he runs the same race as last year. But there's that worry over the jumping mistakes - he put in a clear round last year but that isn't the norm. With a fierce pace almost guaranteed he might be forced out of his comfort zone for the fences. He probably wins with a good round of jumping but at short odds it's a risky one Kauto Star - former Champ who keeps getting written off prematurely. And I'm doing it again ! He looked trained to the minute for Haydock and difficult to see him repeating that performance. Get the impression that the stable didn't really want to run him but the owners had their way Captain Chris - top class novice from last season. Unseated rider when looking likely winner of a limited handicap on reappearance. This looks a big ask for his first run in the top grade outside of novice company. Thrown in at the deep end. Might need another year for experience at the top table. Somersby - should get the trip but generally falls short in grade races , one win from 12 runs. You'd have to think that all 3 or 4 principals would have to run below par for him to win Nacarat - well beaten in his last 3 outings. Should help to make a decent pace but it would be a shock if he didn't start going backwards in the last few furlongs Diamond Harry - sparely raced in the last couple of years suggests he's a difficult horse to get fit and keep fit. Notice that he's never run at a right-hand track which is a bit of a worry, Got the feeling he's got a championship race in him when everything falls right but he look well knackered in the last few furlongs at haydock and might need another year off Golan Way - tremendously game front runner who bounced back to form with a win in a Listed race last time out. But looks very in and out and has refused to race recently. When he puts it in he's a joy to watch but he's a risky proposition. Difficult to see him winning in this company

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nightfisher

nightfisher

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Kauto Star with Walsh on board will be contender. This amazing horse at Kempton can do it again. Long Run has enough stamina and is the reigning champion but in Betfair Chase he made mistakes in jumps... Master Minded... 3miles?? Well... We talk tomorrow Captain Chris will be thereabouts and claims Diamond Harry isn't at level of big three runners Somersby was well beaten by Master Minded weeks ago. Nacarat... Awful performance last race so all the bookies watch it... Golan Way... On rear... LAST gotta

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benreado

benreado

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Re: The 2011 King George - Boxing Day Diamond Harry non-runner. That means only 2 places now. Long Run cut to a best price 5/4 and Kauto cut to 3/1. That is everywhere except for PP who reacted to the withdrawal by laying Long Run at 6/4 and Kauto at 7/2. Madness! Get on now because it won't be around for long.

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