BBOTD Friday 16th December

[Petersson1984]

13:20 Ascot Osmosia Win (8,50) Stan James Osmosia have showen decent form over fences, winning one in a lower grad and finishing second at a simular race. It will be a tuff test against a lot of great horses but Osmosia benefits from her low weight and tongue tie, which previous done her well. The going is expecent to be slighty soft. A good going would benefit her but its not enough to set her off. Osmosia recent form. 4-1-2-F-2 The jockey Tom Cannon are booked for the 7th time in a row. He have been the most succesfull jockey on this mare and looks like the saft choice.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December 1.45 Uttoxeter The drop in trip and the easing of the ground could be the key to Drussell getting back in the winners enclosure. Ran a cracking race behind a handicap snip lto and faces nothing like that here. Runs off a very attractive mark and looks to be a very nice price here. Was running in much better company last year and if near his best must go very close. 1Pt win 11/2 Bet365

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December 3.05 Ascot Gee Dee Nen 25/1 win Ladbrokes This looks an extremely competitive handicap but I fancy GDN to prove very tough to pass in front and go very close in this. He looks on a very tempting mark with the young jockey taking off 5lbs efficitevly putting him on a mark of 117. He is a CD winner and is more than capable of getting involved in a contest like this if on a going day. That is the question with the horse as he does appear to have the talent but very rarely shows it. Stable form is a slight worry with no winners in this sphere but they have had a couple of winners on the flat and plenty of their horses have ran well.

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December Sunset Beauty - Dundalk 7:30 e/w @ 12/1 Boylesports BOG Has won 3 of its 9 starts to date, including a course win over 7 furlongs were it dead-heated with Flic Flac of the Weld stable. Ran well enough in a Listed contest last time out behind Clinical at Dundalk, which was a fairly hot contest and has a good e/w chance tomorrow, i think 12/1 is a big price. Won by over 5 lengths at Gowran in a 15 runner field and won at Leopardstown after that by 4 lengths, so is quite useful.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December A winner last time out ''sole start'' and he done it in VERY nice style, sure he is up against better horses today in this N/H flat race class 1 but trainer O.Sherwood thinks alot of this 5yr old, his last run was back on the Sunday the 30th of Oct at Huntingdon and if he's come on any he must run a close race at nice odds. I do have a concern about the ground as his last run was on firm ground and he will not get that today, however if it turns out he likes the ground he should be up for atleast prize money. Mr Sherwood only sends out the two runners, but this fella is the one they want to see how good he is. Jockey L.Aspel rode him last time out, and he rides again today in the last. Ascot 3:40 - GREENLAW 1pt win bet @ 12/1 Bet365 ''BOG'' Yaaaaaaaaa come racing ! Ascot 3:40 - GREENLAW.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December WTF went wrong there ? not sure how to fix :sad

[Dtrains]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December 3.05 Ascot OUR FATHER - Caught my eye all 3 starts last year lovely looking horse but was definatly a big bady and very weak last year had a full summer on his back and hopefully strengthened up, couple be thrown in on handicap debut here off 129 and early market vibes are looking positive, definatly has loads of potential just love the way he travels through races one to keep on side this winter i hope. 1pt win 10/3 laddys

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December 15:05 Ascot The top three in the market in this competitive contest don’t really interest me too much, they come from powerful yards and are potentially well-handicapped but Dancing Dude’s attitude didn’t impress last time, whilst Sir Du Bearn has been off the track a long while and has allegedly had problems. Our Father probably deserves to be the market leader but there’s value further down the field in NON DOM, who’ll relish the forecast rain and I feel the step up in trip to this 2m6f will only be of assistance and I think he has decent claims today. Fair flat performer who stayed 1m4f well, he was progressive in his first season hurdling, especially when encountering testing ground. A winner on his third hurdling start at Leicester over 2 miles on heavy ground, he followed up nicely up in trip at Bangor, again on a soft surface, shaping as though he could stay further. That race hasn’t worked out too well at present but he won it well enough to suggest there was more to come off this sort of rating. After a poor run over two miles on the flat, he was given the summer off and returned in an exceptionally competitive listed handicap at Newbury. 2 miles over hurdles on fairly decent ground was always going to be far too sharp for him at this stage of his career but he didn’t shape too badly, and will have come on a fair bit for that outing. Upped in trip to 2m6f, I feel this mark of 122 is workable now back on what will likely be his ideal ground, as I think he can be a horse rated in the 130’s. There’s plenty of rain about the south of England and I’d expect it’ll be soft ground by post-time, ground that he goes really well on. Although unproven at the trip, he shapes as though he’ll stay it and going right-handed will also help, as he has tended to jump to right on occasions. This is another tough race for him to take part in but there’s still mileage from this rating now up to what could be his ideal trip, coming from a yard whose flat runners are amongst the winners and he again has the assistance of Tom Scudamore in the saddle, who was on board for the second of his hurdles victories. I feel he should be around the 9/1 mark in this contest, so 20/1 is a value price in my book. Not the biggest fan of each-way betting but feel in a race of this nature, it’s worth doing, hopefully the 4 places remain. NON DOM; EW @ 20/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December Sou 3.20 - Beautiful Day - win at 11/8 bog wm hill This seems to revolve around the two recent course winners, Beautiful Day and St Oswald Of the two Beautiful Day won a better race, beating Il Battista who came out and won on Thurday. That was a class 5 race and Il battista won a class 4 so the form looks solid. It was also over this CD and he drops down to class 6 today. St Oswald won a class 6 over 7 furlongs and the 5 horses who've come out again have all been beaten (to be fair a couple of them finished close 2nds). He's yet to win over a mile though he looks bred for it My record of picking winning favourites is poor so i hope they flip-flop before race time !.............:loon The Post has gone for St Oswald so he might go off favourite. He's more lightly raced than my selection and might turn out to be the better horsae in time.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December 2:30 Ascot Chablais 1pt win - 3/1 (Betfair) Fascinating novice chase on the card tomorrow and I think Henderson's unbeaten charge, Chablais, should be shorter. The Nicholls' horse is fav, was getting weight from Eradicate lto and won by a nose. Maybe he needed it, but I think the form is a bit dodgy. Frascati Park looks one of those horses that'll struggle in this grade, the same applies to Michael Flips and the former top class hurdler, Zaynar. Chablais was an expensive recruit and is currently unbeaten in three starts including a point to point. In his first race under rules he travelled strongly and seemed to blow up in the straight but still win. Dunno why he was put away for so long, but came back to debut over fences last month and won as he should after the market rival fell. The one thing you'd be worried about is that he jumped left, but you'd assume that's sorted as he remains on a right-handed track, with Henderson stating he'd prefer to go the other way for 'saftey's stake'. For an unbeaten Henderson novice he looks a big price and will apparently relish the step-up in trip. Kumbeshwar represents the Alan King yard, a high-class juvenile hurdler last season, couldn't have made a better start to his chasing career with an easy success at Hereford. He jumped well, responded and went clear when asked and was eased heavily. His main market rival didn't feature, but if re-finding his form from last year he has to be in with a big shout here. The trip is slightly worrying but he hasn't done anything to suggest it'll be a hindrance.

[BKI Punter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December 3/1 is with WH, not betfair.

[radelnblueangel]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December Claret Oak 3,35 Betfair SP in the 3.40 HS1 NH Flat Race in Ascot is a really good price to me and the best bet of the day. This 4 year old cruised with such an impressive style after the last bend that it would be shame not to back it next time out. Considering that its entered in a HS1 contest today, maybe there will be better opposition, but lasts race was truly run at a decent pace and if this horse gets in the engine like LTO this will be also in this contest an easy affair. I make it an odds on shot actually. My first bet here, hopefully wins. Result: 2nd Was a slow run tactical race and together with Soft Ground, maybe a reason why it didnt come into gear like LTO. If getting a truly run race worth a go again. Interesting contest the 1.55 HS1 Novice Hurdle Grade 2 Valuewise The Strawberry One at 40 Betfair SP overnight Win and place to me in this race, and maybe everbody will think Im crazy but I cant see Hazy Tom winning this today also from a pace point of view, watching al his runs and also the ones of Molotof and the other runners, I dont think, that it will get an uncontested lead this time and I really my selction at least for a big place chance from the bridle, there are several frontrunner in this and in Market Rasen and Hexham it attacked nice from the bridle held up. A fast pace should suit if not getting outpaced and Im sure it will be a different contest today as LTO after the long layoff, interesting jockey booking with D A Jacob back and the horse likes stiff tracks and galloping should suit.Molotof is the most likely winner for me but I cant have at 3.0 Betfair SP such a confidence as I have with my bumper selection though and Its really a tight affair valuewise,it really convinced me against Zarkandar on his first outing and its a horse that can quicken impressive with long strides, has a nice running style straight focused,long strides and has clearly advantages from the bridle, has a gear left his sectional times were very nice in the last furlongs against OR 166 rated Celestial Halo in Wincanton over same distance, Celestial Halo ran a 2m HH1 race that day with Grandouet and made strong run from the front and that has to be considered for sure, but Molotofs race, was a decent pace and he was very strong quickening from the last 5 bends on. Has a gear. Result: The Strawberry one unpl, never in contention totally out of form this season until now, has tendency to get outpaced and the Soft ground could be too muddy, needs a field with G-F that is truly run and the ability not to hit a flat spot, like his Market Rasen race. Molotof 1st got a truly run race and came into gear like predicted, the fav weakened late, as didnt have a strong lead. Molotof sectional times hand timed from fence 1 to finish 2m Wincanton: F 00:00:14.90 00:03:19.20 7 00:00:19.64 00:03:04.30 6 00:00:51.23 00:02:44.66 5 00:00:14.66 00:01:53.43 4 00:00:22.68 00:01:38.77 3 00:00:21.80 00:01:16.08 2 00:00:32.63 00:00:54.27 1 00:00:21.64 00:00:21.64 Celestial Halo OR 160 hand timed from fence 1 to finish 2m Wincanton: F 00:00:16.22 00:03:18.32 7 00:00:21.57 00:03:02.09 6 00:00:54.64 00:02:40.52 5 00:00:15.01 00:01:45.87 4 00:00:21.40 00:01:30.85 3 00:00:20.74 00:01:09.45 2 00:00:29.49 00:00:48.70 1 00:00:19.21 00:00:19.21 14.30 2m3f Novice Chase Class1 Pacha Du Polder 4.4 Betfair SP is to me a cracking price in this contest here. This one could be a really good one to follow,just watching the horse is impressive,as its a real chase from the makeup and looks perfect. LTO in Sandown he raced in 2 runner race and to me the form is top Notch, i was really a truly run race and I compared the fence to fence sectionals with the 2m4 CH3 contest with the winner Roudouville(FR) OR 145, who went on to have a cracking race finishing 3rd in the Atlantic 4 Gold Cup in Cheltenham, having lost an iron and being the best animal in this contest. And watching Pascha Du Bolders last race it is incredible how smooth and boldly he jumps also very high and straightfoward making loads of ground, the sectionals against Roudouville are even better, way better and I think that this horse can considering the way it jumps, the way it looks from the makeup being a high class chaser. Today doesnt really face Class1(Grade 2+) winning horses and the 4.4 on offer seem to me very generous, as people underestimate LTO form. Today is the right time to jump on this animal as its still unexposed for the punters. Result: unpl drifted like a barge and got backed heavy in the last 5 minutes and finally being held up jumping sloppy not in any way like before and being very nervous during the race, needs a small field when it can apply pressure from the front and a Ground it runs combined with fences, that dont take out his natural speed, had also the feeling that the Ascot fences hindered the natural accelaration from this horse, jumped before much more fluent making ground, today jumped bad and always stopped after hitting the ground again. I am sorry with the One bet rule, didnt know this and will post in the future in the other thread, if there are more selections, didnt know its a comp :) Good Luck!

[furlong86]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December 13.55 ASCOT The strawberry one 14/1 on will hill. Could well bounce back in this race. £10 to win :hope

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December A3.05 Shuil Royale 0.5pt E/W 11/1 Ladbrokes This horse has been given a possibly lenient mark by the handicapper and I think it'll improve for racing on softer ground that it has encountered of late (off higher handicap marks). It's run last time out was promising and the trip will suit today. There's 3 or 4 unexposed horses at the top of the betting that could be anything, but at least they are carrying more weight than the selection and with 4 places paid, this looks sure to be in the shake up.

[fosterbet5]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December southwell 13:35 sky high diver 4/5 william hills must do the 4th on the trot here , hes absolutely flying and nothing in this company should bother him , conducting is a good horses but hes the greatest threat . 2 previous wins over this track and slightly longer distance so we know he can last the distance , if anything he can afford to kick on faster . trainer and jockey both in great form , must win .

[LJD]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December Flying Trader - 5.20 Wolverhampton* Titus star will probably win this but I just have a feeling that this may have come too early and the little bit of extra weight may hinder it here. Flying Trader could be able to capitalise. It has been placed twice overall but finished fast to take third in a 1 mile handicap at Lingfield last time out. That race has produced a winner and a place so far so it looks decent form. So basically if Titus Star doesnt run as well as it has been then I think Flying trader can fly to the front and break it's maiden Flying trader win @ 4/1 Ladbrokes*

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December

Claret Oak 3' date=35 Betfair SP in the 3.40 HS1 NH Flat Race in Ascot is a really good price to me and the best bet of the day. This 4 year old cruised with such an impressive style after the last bend that it would be shame not to back it next time out. Considering that its entered in a HS1 contest today, maybe there will be better opposition, but lasts race was truly run at a decent pace and if this horse gets in the engine like LTO this will be also in this contest an easy affair. I make it an odds on shot actually. My first bet here, hopefully wins. Interesting contest the 1.55 HS1 Novice Hurdle Grade 2 Valuewise The Strawberry One at 40 Betfair SP overnight Win and place to me in this race, and maybe everbody will think Im crazy but I cant see Hazy Tom winning this today also from a pace point of view, watching al his runs and also the ones of Molotof and the other runners, I dont think, that it will get an uncontested lead this time and I really my selction at least for a big place chance from the bridle, there are several frontrunner in this and in Market Rasen and Hexham it attacked nice from the bridle held up. A fast pace should suit if not getting outpaced and Im sure it will be a different contest today as LTO after the long layoff, interesting jockey booking with D A Jacob back and the horse likes stiff tracks and galloping should suit.Molotof is the most likely winner for me but I cant have at 3.0 Betfair SP such a confidence as I have with my bumper selection though and Its really a tight affair valuewise,it really convinced me against Zarkandar on his first outing and its a horse that can quicken impressive with long strides, has a nice running style straight focused,long strides and has clearly advantages from the bridle, has a gear left his sectional times were very nice in the last furlongs against OR 166 rated Celestial Halo in Wincanton over same distance, Celestial Halo ran a 2m HH1 race that day with Grandouet and made strong run from the front and that has to be considered for sure, but Molotofs race, was a decent pace and he was very strong quickening from the last 5 bends on. Has a gear. Molotof sectional times hand timed from fence 1 to finish 2m Wincanton: F 00:00:14.90 00:03:19.20 7 00:00:19.64 00:03:04.30 6 00:00:51.23 00:02:44.66 5 00:00:14.66 00:01:53.43 4 00:00:22.68 00:01:38.77 3 00:00:21.80 00:01:16.08 2 00:00:32.63 00:00:54.27 1 00:00:21.64 00:00:21.64 Celestial Halo OR 160 hand timed from fence 1 to finish 2m Wincanton: F 00:00:16.22 00:03:18.32 7 00:00:21.57 00:03:02.09 6 00:00:54.64 00:02:40.52 5 00:00:15.01 00:01:45.87 4 00:00:21.40 00:01:30.85 3 00:00:20.74 00:01:09.45 2 00:00:29.49 00:00:48.70 1 00:00:19.21 00:00:19.21 14.30 2m3f Novice Chase Class1 Pacha Du Polder 4.4 Betfair SP is to me a cracking price in this contest here. This one could be a really good one to follow,just watching the horse is impressive,as its a real chase from the makeup and looks perfect. LTO in Sandown he raced in 2 runner race and to me the form is top Notch, i was really a truly run race and I compared the fence to fence sectionals with the 2m4 CH3 contest with the winner Roudouville(FR) OR 145, who went on to have a cracking race finishing 3rd in the Atlantic 4 Gold Cup in Cheltenham, having lost an iron and being the best animal in this contest. And watching Pascha Du Bolders last race it is incredible how smooth and boldly he jumps also very high and straightfoward making loads of ground, the sectionals against Roudouville are even better, way better and I think that this horse can considering the way it jumps, the way it looks from the makeup being a high class chaser. Today doesnt really face Class1(Grade 2+) winning horses and the 4.4 on offer seem to me very generous, as people underestimate LTO form. Today is the right time to jump on this animal as its still unexposed for the punters. Good Luck!

Great write up but only one selection allowed in this thread mate :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December Ascot 2.30 Chablais win - 10/3 VC Going with the Nicky Henderson horse here, who I think could be top class. Jumps well albeit a bit to the left, but that has hopefully been corrected at home. Will save on the Nicholls yardstick, who also comes here with a big reputation and could be anything.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December Welcome to the forum, radeInblueangel and furlong86. Hope you stick around. For your info, the BBOTD competition rules are here: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f13/best-bet-day-tables-december-2011-a-124124/#post2061831 Apart from the BBOTD, there are also separate daily jump and flat threads if you would like post more than one selection. Best of luck guys!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December 2.55 Uttoxeter - 1pt win Master D'or @ 12/1 (Bet365) This is a better race on ratings than the one he contested at Plumpton last time, but many of these may fail to run to their mark given they have their wellbeing to prove. My selection showed much more last time over 2m4f, plugging on, and this 3 miles on testing ground will suit better. He's a course winner and is handicapped to strike, just 2lbs higher than that ready success. Went close next time out at Lingfield, but excuses are apparent for his three failures after that, and now returns to Uttoxeter on a nice mark at a nice price. The favourite isn't very fluent and that would concern me, 2 of these have to return from a long absence, and I'd be worried about the wellbeing of the rest other than Run To Fly, but this is another step up in class and he hasn't fully proved himself on very testing ground. I think 12/1 is a very fair price about my selection, who seemingly is getting back towards form, and is proven under the conditions.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December 1420 uttoxeter thehillofusneach 1 pt win 6/4 bet365 i tipped this horse when it won last week, and i see no reason it cant follow up today,an extra 71b to carry and an extra furlong today, but it is due to go up 10lb in the future,ap mccoy rides again and the runner up last time,drussel runs earlier on the same card

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December 12.05 Uttoxeter: Bubbly Bruce EW 16/1 PP Caught the eye on his first run at Exeter and went onto my list of horses to follow, not ran since and this looks full of unexposed sorts so he may be shooting too high here but worth a little interest EW. Tarn Hows has a decent piece of form and the Pipe debutant is well regarded, anyway the price is right at around 16/1.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December 6.20 Wolverhampton Douze Points - looks to have been lined up to pay the stables Christmas bills. Started season off 89, creditable Ripon fourth at start of season around that mark when with Ed de Giles. Placed off 77 on the AW at Kempton in the summer. They've got it down to 63 now, shaving 4lbs off his mark for last run, enabling it to slip into this 0-65. The cheekpieces left off on all three runs for Pat Murhpy are now re-fitted tonight (won when won sole race in Ireland) and job jockey Adam Kirby replaces an apprentice in the plate. If that doesn't convince, he also holds an entry on Sunday when they no doubt will be looking to slip him into another 0-65 off top-weight under a penalty. Form of last race has produced several winners and is working out really nicely. Backed into 8/1 from 33/1 last time; will be interesting to see if the cash is down again tonight. 16/1 Victor Chandler, 1 pt win

[switzerland]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December Dannanceys Hill 12.35 Uttx 1pt Win 2/1 B365 Beaten favourite lto in a bumper, this ex-Irish pointer should be much more suited to the step up in trip over hurdles today. He was well backed on his rules debut when finishing 3rd. The winner looked very promising and the 3rd (San Telm) ran a good 2nd behind Jimbil on Monday. He cost the McCain's quite a bit of money after he won on his sole start in a point race. This doesn't look a particularly strong race and he can hopefully get off the mark.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December Key Breeze - 7.00 Dun (1pt win 9-2 BOYLES BOG) Was placed four times in a row in England before winning in game fashion over 10.5f at this track a few weeks ago. The drop back to 8f is probably a slight negative, but Key Breeze was only beaten by a neck over 1m141yd at Wolverhampton in September. Furthermore, Kevin Ryan has an incredible 33% strike rate from 24 runners at the track.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December 12:45 Ascot - Hadrian's Approach - Back Won his first career start in a point to point in Ireland. Looked the type that could go places given his connections as has the typical pedigree of one that can go places. Seems to have been well placed here and Market speaking strongly in his favour 1pt win @ Evens Hills BOG

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December KUMBESHWAR 2.30 Ascot. 1 point win. Needs to step a bit on latest effort, but it impressed me and I think he can improve a bit more to take this. Trip and ground not a concern and seemingly jumps well. Good chance. 7/2 William Hill BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December Phare Isle 3.05 Ascot. 0.5 points each way. A bit more exposed than most, but pretty consistent and his best form would give him every chance in context with this race. Up in the weights without winning is a little unfair, but his mark still gives him chances and I think he'll run well today. 20/1 Bet365 (bog)

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December

12:45 Ascot - Hadrian's Approach - Back Won his first career start in a point to point in Ireland. Looked the type that could go places given his connections as has the typical pedigree of one that can go places. Seems to have been well placed here and Market speaking strongly in his favour 1pt win @ Evens Hills BOG

Is that the ''200'' ?

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 16th December Well done wizzkid !..........that's a lorra lorra winners..........