Snepke1990 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Wigan - Chelsea Chelsea 1:0 handicap Stake 6/10 2.05 @ William hill Since their win over Valencia in the Champions League Chelsea is in an excellent form, beating newcastle united and Manchester City. I expect them to keep up the good work against a weak Wigan. Nice value . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snepke1990 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Wolves - Stoke Stoke draw no bet Stake 3/10 2.05 @ William Hill Stoke had excellent play against the spurs. Stoke city is always a tough opponent, very physical. I think they will beat the Wolves but i don't see wolves beating them very easily. Might end up in a draw. Great value @ 2.05. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snepke1990 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Newcastle United - Swansea City Newcastle @ 1.80 on William Hill Stake 10/10 Newcastle is simply a class up for Swansea City, also they are playing at home. I don't know how the bookies can put 1.8 on newcastle for a home game, but they have for some reason. Might aswell take advantage of it. If Vorm doesn't play like a octopus like last game i can see newcastle ensuring a easy win! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Just an idea - wonder what more experienced punters think about it. There should be goals in Man City - Arsenal. Both teams are good going forward and both experienced their share of problems at the back - 3-4 goals should be a certainty. Over 3.5 is now around 2.75 so i suggest taking it and then waiting what happens. If there are at least two goals around 60-70 minutes odds on under 3.5 should go higher than evens than we can put the same stake as we did on over 3.5 and guarantee a profit no matter what happens. Don't think this will work for you pal. I don't back much in-play, so not going to state what the odds in the different scenarios would be. But if you have backed over 3.5 goals, and there have been 2 goals by the 70 min mark, then over 3.5 goals will not be odds on (as implied by stating under 3.5 would be above evens). You would need 2 goals in 20 mins, or roughly 22% of the game left, after only having 2 in 70 mins?? I stand to be corrected, and obviously there are many factors to consider, but I believe the odds for 1 more goal hits evens around 75 mins generally. Not saying there won't be goals, or that there won't be an opportunity to trade if there are early goals. Just that the scenario you have in your head is not correct and could come back to bite you. If you haven't already, perhaps track a few games in-play and watch how the goals markets move?? Also, what you are considering is to trade. Generally when trading you are placing higher initial stakes as it is not intended to lose the entire stake (you would trade out for a loss if the game is not going to plan). So if there is no goals in the first half, are you prepared for that?? Hope this might help you a bit:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
conormcfc Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Just an idea - wonder what more experienced punters think about it. There should be goals in Man City - Arsenal. Both teams are good going forward and both experienced their share of problems at the back - 3-4 goals should be a certainty. Over 3.5 is now around 2.75 so i suggest taking it and then waiting what happens. If there are at least two goals around 60-70 minutes odds on under 3.5 should go higher than evens than we can put the same stake as we did on over 3.5 and guarantee a profit no matter what happens. thats definitely an option. i done it last night with the fulham game. had money on over 2.5 goals, at half time i put a very small bet on the game finishing 2-0; which would have covered my stake if it didnt go over. means i lost a little bit of my eventual winnings but decided to play it safe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bentlley Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Tottenham - Sunderland Spurs bin in a pretty good form lately, but they still keep conceding goals. This season in 15 Premier League games Spurs kept a clean sheet only 5 times. Sunderland scored at least a goal in 11 out of 15 games. Last 10 H2H games ended up with Sunderland scoring in 8 of them. Plus now Sunderland with a new manager and with a great comeback last weekend against Rovers, I think team should be in a great spirit. Tottenham keep a clean sheet: No 1.72 bet365 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lfc-lennon Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December I agree with the Bolton due a win chatter and will be backing them also, i'm going to put them in a 3 team acc along with Chelsea and Charlton and hey who knows, if Bolton are due a win then so am i, my losing streak is ridiculous. Fulhams exit from europa league mid-week might be playing on the mind of the players and Bolton would have had longer to prepare. :hope any advice would be great ifyou have anything to add, wish me luck, and good luck to yourselves, merry xmas :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December I agree with the Bolton due a win chatter and will be backing them also' date=' i'm going to put them in a 3 team acc along with Chelsea and Charlton and hey who knows, if Bolton are due a win then so am i, my losing streak is ridiculous. Fulhams exit from europa league mid-week might be playing on the mind of the players and Bolton would have had longer to prepare. :hope any advice would be great ifyou have anything to add, wish me luck, and good luck to yourselves, merry xmas :D[/quote'] My advise is don't use reasoning like a "Team A is due a win" or "Team B has had last X number of games Over 2.5 Goals so they due Under 2.5 Goals". I am not saying Bolton won't win this weekend, because it's Premier League and we saw it last year when a team that was playing poorly completely changed their tactics and won the next game. But in my opinion your reasoning won't make you profit in a long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Everton - Norwich Everton are not playing well this season. They have only managed 5 wins this season, all against teams in the bottom half of the table. Meanwhile, Norwich are playing really well for a newly promoted side. In two years by winning back to back promotions they went from playing in League 1 to Premier League and it looks like they will stay here if they continue playing the way they do. They lost away games against top 3 sides but in my opinion played really well at Old Trafford and taking a point from Anfield is also a good result. They were very impressive against Newcastle last week and I can see them getting something against out of form Everton. Norwich +1 @ 2.20 (2 units) William HIll Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisey10 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Fulham v Bolton +1 (AH) @ 1.80 Bet365 Ok, Bolton are in dire form and Fulham have a decent record at Craven Cottage. But I think this game will be a lot tighter than the odds suggest and Fulham are way too short for my liking. I haven't been partculary impressed with the job Martin Jol is doing and going out of the Europa league from the position they were in is criminal. Talking of the Europa, Fulham played a full side on Wednesday night and by all accounts were looking very tired in the 2nd half. Bolton on the other hand have had all week to prepare for this game and will be much the fresher side. Fulham's players should by rights have had today (Thursday) off to recover which leaves martin Jol just 1 day to get his side ready and prepared for this match tactically. You would really think this have to give Bolton an edge. Fulham have had some good results at home beating Liverpool and drawing with Man City but Blackburn managed to get a draw here and Everton won 3-1 the other week. Bolton really are in a rut results wise but like we have seen with Wigan, the premier league is very tight and with the right game in the right circumstances, a win is only round the corner. With the preperation edge I really think Bolton can pick up at least a point here. With the +1 asian handicap, Fulham would need to win this by at least 2 goals for the bet to lose and at the odds on offer, I think all the value is on Bolton's side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDevil92 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Fulham v Bolton +1 (AH) @ 1.80 Bet365 Ok, Bolton are in dire form and Fulham have a decent record at Craven Cottage. But I think this game will be a lot tighter than the odds suggest and Fulham are way too short for my liking. I haven't been partculary impressed with the job Martin Jol is doing and going out of the Europa league from the position they were in is criminal. Talking of the Europa, Fulham played a full side on Wednesday night and by all accounts were looking very tired in the 2nd half. Bolton on the other hand have had all week to prepare for this game and will be much the fresher side. Fulham's players should by rights have had today (Thursday) off to recover which leaves martin Jol just 1 day to get his side ready and prepared for this match tactically. You would really think this have to give Bolton an edge. Fulham have had some good results at home beating Liverpool and drawing with Man City but Blackburn managed to get a draw here and Everton won 3-1 the other week. Bolton really are in a rut results wise but like we have seen with Wigan, the premier league is very tight and with the right game in the right circumstances, a win is only round the corner. With the preperation edge I really think Bolton can pick up at least a point here. With the +1 asian handicap, Fulham would need to win this by at least 2 goals for the bet to lose and at the odds on offer, I think all the value is on Bolton's side. You forgot to mention that Schwarzer is out for a couple of weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisey10 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Wolves v Stoke +0.25 (AH) @ 1.80 Bet365 The shift on the handicap line from 0 to +0.25 has tempted me into backing Stoke in this one. Stoke are poor away from home but we don't usually struggle at Wolves quite like we do at other grounds. I don't know whether last night's Europa game has influenced the price on Stoke drifting here, but if it has then it is in this bets favour as none of the starting 11 on Saturday will have travelled to Turkey. After a poor run of form, Stoke are back on track with 3 wins in a row from their last 3 league games. Wev'e had luck on our side at times but Pulis seems to have stopped the rot that had set in when we were leaking goals all over the place. The players seem to have got their intensity back and bringing Huth back into the centre of defence with Shawcross seems to have sorted things out. Etherington is also back on form which is crucial. As for Wolves, I just can't help thinking mcarthy is a dead man walking and it's only matter of time before he hits another bad spell and the crowd get on his back enough for the board to take action. I think Stoke have the edge over Wolves player wise but obviously Wolves have the home advantage. However, it should be a close game and I can see Stoke taking a point from this game. If they do take the lead and the fans start getting on Mcarthys back like they usually do, I can also see the Potters going on to the win considering the decent form they are in. I expect to see a tight game but with the handicap on offer, I will be siding with Stoke to take something from the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisey10 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December You forgot to mention that Schwarzer is out for a couple of weeks. Yes you are right, I was meaning to mention that factor but did forget. Schwarzer is a good keeper so it is definitely a negative for Fulham to have him missing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDevil92 Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Yes you are right' date=' I was meaning to mention that factor but did forget. Schwarzer is a good keeper so it is definitely a negative for Fulham to have him missing.[/quote'] Yeah, that's true. His absence will be a huge blow, even if Stockdale will be back in time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Le Roi Posted December 15, 2011 Share Posted December 15, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Van Persie Wincast - 9/1 Betfred :loon Ridiculous price. The next best is 11/2, I think fred may have dropped the ball here. If Arsenal are 5s to win an RVP goal helping them on the way would be an almost certainty. This is something you may want to get on quick as I don't see this price lasting. Everton - Norwich, Both teams to score - 5/6 Skybet Everton havent exactly been free scoring this season but this is an attacking Norwich team with many defensive flaws. This bet would have come good in all of Norwich's past 8 games, the only time this hasn't come in in their away games this season was at Old Trafford when they missed 2 or 3 gilt-edged chances. Also, wanted to get some opinions on Liverpool to win to nil at 9/4. Liverpool have the best defensive away record in the prem this year and kept clean sheets at the Emirates and Stamford Bridge. Villa failed to score in 3 or their last 4 games. I don't know how much Lucas' absence or the fact Villa switched to a 4-4-2 against Bolton will affect this though. Any opinions welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitch Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Although I think Man City is more likely to win, I also think it's a better idea to go for the goals market instead considering each side's attacking ability and their relatively weak defenses. I have a question though. Considering BTTS is @ 1.65 on Betfair and the Over 2.5 is @ 1.7, isn't it much wiser to bet on the BTTS unless you think either side is going to win the match 3-0? Isn't covering the 1-1 scoreline worth it if there's only a 0.05 loss between the BTTS and Over 2.5? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCFC4Life Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Disagree with all that! Arsenal have been playing brilliantly of late and even if they are reliant on Van Persie' date=' its only a problem for Arsenal if he isnt playing! He will be playing so Arsenal will be a huge threat! Arsenal went to Chelsea and won 5-3, ye went to Chelsea and lost 2-1, yer games against United and Spurs have no bearing whatsoever on this match and i fancy Arsenal to get a result against an over-rated City team![/quote'] Arsenal also have more clean sheets than Man City Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCFC4Life Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Normally I think this would be a good bet but I am very concerned about Arsenal's problems in the full-back positions with all those injuries. Against lesser sides it's not so much of a problem but Man City have players that can expose those areas. Will have to look at team news when it comes out. For Arsenal's weakness at full back then, we're expecting Richards, Johnson and Silva to have good games down the flanks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Van Persie Wincast - 9/1 Betfred :loon Ridiculous price. The next best is 11/2, I think fred may have dropped the ball here. If Arsenal are 5s to win an RVP goal helping them on the way would be an almost certainty. This is something you may want to get on quick as I don't see this price lasting. I personally advise not to make bets on players. My main reason is that if we know that Van Persie will be key for Arsenal, so does Mancini. I expect City players marking him tightly and also he might have a good game without scoring a goal. Although I think Man City is more likely to win, I also think it's a better idea to go for the goals market instead considering each side's attacking ability and their relatively weak defenses. I have a question though. Considering BTTS is @ 1.65 on Betfair and the Over 2.5 is @ 1.7, isn't it much wiser to bet on the BTTS unless you think either side is going to win the match 3-0? Isn't covering the 1-1 scoreline worth it if there's only a 0.05 loss between the BTTS and Over 2.5? Last season Arsenal won 3-0, but City had a player sent of, but still odds are a bit short in my opinion for both to score as well as overs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackiechiles Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 I think betting handicap or even win on City is a bit risky. Arsenal have been hot as of late, City on a (slight) downswing. I disagree that City struggles with top EPL teams. They did lose to Chelsea last weekend, but they still annihilated Spurs and Man U at Old Trafford earlier this season. To me, that shows that they could go either way -- too risky for me. Arsenal is the same way. They beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, but do you really want to trust that leaky defense at Eastlands? Even for all their great form as of late (7 wins in their last 8 games), their back four is still suspect, and that's not something I'd want to put my money on against a team with the firepower of City, even if they are short. Arsenal are also extremely unpredictable against the EPL's best -- in recent seasons they've played Liverpool very closely, beaten Chelsea twice, played Man U close but also gotten killed. Tottenham has also given them trouble. They had mixed results against City last season, beating them 3-0 at Eastlands but also drawing them at home. I'd say the safest bet for Arsenal/City this weekend is OVER 2.5 goals -- both teams' back four are not at full strength, and if someone scores early, either team is capable of striking back quickly or folding up and letting in another few goals (Arsenal moreso than City). My recommendation (and what I'll likely be doing) is throwing OVER 2.5 goals into an accumulator bet since the odds are a bit short -- currently at 1.65 on Bovada. Haven't scanned the other matches thoroughly enough to find a second bet yet myself. DISCLAIMER: I am an Arsenal fan, but I'd like to think my above analysis was fairly unbiased. =] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December I think betting handicap or even win on City is a bit risky. Arsenal have been hot as of late, City on a (slight) downswing. I disagree that City struggles with top EPL teams. They did lose to Chelsea last weekend, but they still annihilated Spurs and Man U at Old Trafford earlier this season. To me, that shows that they could go either way -- too risky for me. Arsenal is the same way. They beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, but do you really want to trust that leaky defense at Eastlands? Even for all their great form as of late (7 wins in their last 8 games), their back four is still suspect, and that's not something I'd want to put my money on against a team with the firepower of City, even if they are short. Arsenal are also extremely unpredictable against the EPL's best -- in recent seasons they've played Liverpool very closely, beaten Chelsea twice, played Man U close but also gotten killed. Tottenham has also given them trouble. They had mixed results against City last season, beating them 3-0 at Eastlands but also drawing them at home. I'd say the safest bet for Arsenal/City this weekend is OVER 2.5 goals -- both teams' back four are not at full strength, and if someone scores early, either team is capable of striking back quickly or folding up and letting in another few goals (Arsenal moreso than City). My recommendation (and what I'll likely be doing) is throwing OVER 2.5 goals into an accumulator bet since the odds are a bit short -- currently at 1.65 on Bovada. Haven't scanned the other matches thoroughly enough to find a second bet yet myself. DISCLAIMER: I am an Arsenal fan, but I'd like to think my above analysis was fairly unbiased. =] I agree with your reasoning that this match can go either way. But in form Arsenal at these odds represent value in my opinion. If it was something like Man.City @ 1.90 - Draw @ 3.50 - Arsenal @ 2.50 I would'n have touched this game. Just remember the top sides this season that were @ 6.00 or something. Liverpool away against Arsenal and Chelsea, Arsenal against Chelsea and City against Man.United. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DHorozov Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Sport Football (England - Prem) Event Wigan - Chelsea Selection Chelsea Strength 10/10 Date 17/12/2011 Bookmaker/Price Betclic @ 1.40 Reasoning Chelsea is in great shape from the start of the month and Wigan will just have no chance at all on Saturday evening. The team won three really important games in the last two weeks and is back in the top three in England. First the Blues managed to win away from home against the surprise of the season so far Newcastle with 3:0. Then just three days ago at "Stamford Bridge" the result was the same, but this time their opponent was Valencia (that win helped Chelsea to finish on top in their group). And finally on Monday the team won against the league leaders Manchester City with 2:1 (their first defeat of the season in England). So now Chelsea is back in the top three, five points behind Manchester United and seven behind City. Chelsea have great h2h stats in the games against Wigan over the years (11-1-1). In two of the last three games the team just smashed their opponent with a results 8:0 and 6:0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mindfulness Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December For Arsenal's weakness at full back then' date=' we're expecting Richards, Johnson and Silva to have good games down the flanks?[/quote'] Possibly, throw Nasri into the mix also, I don't know what the team news is yet. It's the kind of game I'd wait till I see the starting lineups. Even so anykind of 1X2/AH bet for this game wouldn't fill me with confidence but Arsenal are priced a bit long IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nigelixtiti Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December I agree with your reasoning that this match can go either way. But in form Arsenal at these odds represent value in my opinion. If it was something like Man.City @ 1.90 - Draw @ 3.50 - Arsenal @ 2.50 I would'n have touched this game. Just remember the top sides this season that were @ 6.00 or something. Liverpool away against Arsenal and Chelsea, Arsenal against Chelsea and City against Man.United. Hey mustafa, just out of curiosity what is ur record for the season so far? or maybe the last 10 game weeks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDevil92 Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Fulham has ordered Stockdale back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nigelixtiti Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Game: Tottenham vs Sunderland Prediction: Tottenham to win. At the moment in time, Tottenham are in incredible form (especially at home) having won their last 5 games at home. With VDV, Ade, Bale, Mod, Parker, Lennon all fit, I am fairly certain they will be able to pull out the victory, the question is by how much? Martin O'Neil will be going into his second game in charge of Sunderland, and I dont think there is much he can/ will do to stop Spurs from recording another win. The mark of a good team is consistency and I definitely believe Spurs are a good team so a win is i believe most likely. Picks: Spurs to win @ 1.36 is short I believe, but if you accumulate it with something else, you should have yourself a pretty decent banker. Spurs -1 Handicap @ 2.00, is good value i believe especially if you are fairly confident spurs will win. I believe they are well capable of scoring more than 1 at home so this bet at evens i think represent decent value. On that note, Spurs to score 2 or more goals @ 1.41 is a little TOO short and i would stay away from it. We should also consider Both Teams to Score @ 1.84. But I personally would stay away from it. Those that know more about Sunderland might know better about Sunderland's chances of scoring. (they are priced at 1.64 to score) All prices are from sportsbet australia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG X Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December 4pts - Blackburn v West Brom - Over 2.5 goals @ 1.72 Bet365 I expect to see an open game here as both teams will think they can win the match. Despite Blackburn's poor position in the league they do carry a goal threat - in 7 home games they have failed to score on 3 occasions, but two of these were against Man City and Chelsea. They have also scored four goals twice this season against Swansea and Arsenal. However despite the goals scored they are yet to keep a clean sheet at home. West Brom carry enough of a goal threat to help bring in the over's here and have only failed to score twice away from home this season - against Arsenal and Swansea. Blackburn have gone over 4 out of the last 6 at home West Brom have gone over 4 out of the last 6 away 4pts - Wolves v Stoke - Over 2.5 goals @ 2.00 Bet365 Again as above I think both teams will go into the match thinking they can win the game and I think that should translate to an open game and goals. Wolves have seen the goals flying in at both ends only keeping one clean sheet this season on the opening day. However they have only failed to score twice at home and have gone over this line in 5 out of the last 6 home games. Stoke are not the greatest at scoring away from home and have not managed to score more than one goal in a match away this season. Scoring once on four of their 7 away games. However I think they will fancy their chances against this Wolves side and I fancy the over's again here. Wolves have gone over 5 out of the last 6 at home Stoke have gone over 3 out of the last 6 away 2pts - Both above as a double - @ 3.45 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Fulham v Bolton +1 (AH) @ 1.80 Bet365 Ok, Bolton are in dire form and Fulham have a decent record at Craven Cottage. But I think this game will be a lot tighter than the odds suggest and Fulham are way too short for my liking. I haven't been partculary impressed with the job Martin Jol is doing and going out of the Europa league from the position they were in is criminal. Talking of the Europa, Fulham played a full side on Wednesday night and by all accounts were looking very tired in the 2nd half. Bolton on the other hand have had all week to prepare for this game and will be much the fresher side. Fulham's players should by rights have had today (Thursday) off to recover which leaves martin Jol just 1 day to get his side ready and prepared for this match tactically. You would really think this have to give Bolton an edge. Fulham have had some good results at home beating Liverpool and drawing with Man City but Blackburn managed to get a draw here and Everton won 3-1 the other week. Bolton really are in a rut results wise but like we have seen with Wigan, the premier league is very tight and with the right game in the right circumstances, a win is only round the corner. With the preperation edge I really think Bolton can pick up at least a point here. With the +1 asian handicap, Fulham would need to win this by at least 2 goals for the bet to lose and at the odds on offer, I think all the value is on Bolton's side. I am astonished that the +1 is this long. Fantastic odds IMO. We don't lost many at home, but could easily be a draw. I dont see us winning by more than one goal anywhere near 50% of the time, so this is an absolute stand-out bet for me. A bit of Fulham team news... Stockdale will be in goal for us, as Mark S has a back problem. Expected to be out for 4-6 weeks. Danny Murphy is back, his foot has got better. Bobby Zamora is having some issues with his 'knee' (read 'manager') so is a doubt for the game. I think this game will be at around 80% capacity, it never sells well so they slashed the prices of the tickets for it. Fans are wanting a win after Wednesdays dismal performance, the players do too, many of them were visible frustrated or upset after the game, I hope it doesnt go into their play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustafa Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Hey mustafa' date=' just out of curiosity what is ur record for the season so far? or maybe the last 10 game weeks?[/quote'] I use 5 units betting system and as of today my profit is 12.83 units. Why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpffc Posted December 16, 2011 Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: England > Weekend > Barclays Premier League > 17-18 December Fulhams fantastic 8 wins out of 10 record against terrible trotters, is enough to go on for 3 points. Been a poor week for Fulham. Should have taken a point from Swansea even though we didn't deserve nothing so it was fair enough we got beaten 2-0. We were playing for a clean sheet and not even thinking of winning a very winnable game. Credit to Swansea though they took advantage of Jol's ambitious away tactics. Europa League Wednesday night what a blow. 2-0 and cruising. I think the last time I witnessed Fulham blowing a 2 goal lead at home was Southampton at home at loftus road 6 or 7 seasons ago now. So ye its rare. These two fixtures have got fans fuming and alarm bells might start ringing at Fulham hq if we don't take 3 points from this game. It was a combination of inexperience and taking our foot of the gas which got us knocked out. Fully deserved that to. Odense were there to be hit for 3 or 4 in the 2nd half. I was expecting Fulham to be much higher than they were with the bookmakers. 1.61 for a team that sits 14th in the table with a few problems of their own is a disgrace. However 1.61 must represent how bad Bolton are. And if Bolton are so bad they are priced up at 6.00 to win here its looking like a home win. Our recent record of 8 wins and 2 draws out of the last possible 10 in the league also suggests Bolton are in for another bad away day at the cottage. Ruiz will be back for this game and I would like to think he is settled now to the EPL. He is not playing particulary well but this is a great game for him to get him going. Not sure what the go with Zamora is. He didn't want to be their in the week and will be interesting to see if he starts or not. AJ might be back and I think he will start with Duff. As for Bolton I cant say allot. I needed them to win or draw last week for £80 in a treble and they let me down. I watched them and they were very poor. If you cant get results on your own pitch away from home in the EPL is even harder. Its a massive game for Fulham. This game will answer allot of questions about the manager. Apparently the players don't like him which isn't the best thing. Can we dig deep and get 3 points for Jol? Will we react to EL let down? will BZ turn up. In a way I think its relief we got knocked out the EL because we were playing so many games and realistically we were never going to go as far as uncle Roy took us. Now we can concentrate on a solid league performance and maybe a FA cup run and some good old player and manager bonding time ;). Another point about Bolton is Zat Knight. Anyone with him in your team is there for the taking. I have witnessed Fulham so many times with him in the back four and by god does he cost you. Schwarzer is out for us which is a blow but I wouldn't look into that to much as I believe Stockdale is a brilliant keeper. Hes just been unlucky not to get his chance because of Mark being so good still. The prediction rating for this game is 17/12/2011Fulham71.0077.50 - 41.5044.75Bolton+26.25 This represents a Fulham home win by 1 goal possibly 2 if you go by the middle. Last week against Swansea 10/12/2011Swansea40.5022.50 - 48.5035.00Fulham+5.50 So here you would take 1X but with only small stakes because the middle numbers suggest an away win to Fulham (Result 2-0 Swans) and the week before against Liverpool 05/12/2011Fulham68.5063.50 - 51.0044.00Liverpool+24.50 A Fulham win by one goal or 1X. (Fulham won 1-0) So going by the performance ratings they have been pretty spot on recently so hopefully this trend continues. So to conclude its a big game and the bookmakers seem to have it as a home win. I would avoid that price for sure but I will be getting stuck into some value bets. In those 8 wins against Bolton there are a few 2-1 or 2-0 in there. I will have 2 units on both of these and 10 units split on Fulham win margins by 1 and 2. Fulham win 2-1 8.50 2/10 Fulham win 2-0 7.00 2/10 Fulham win by 1 3.60 6/10 Fulham win by 2 4.75 4/10 B365 COYW FTID :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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