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Tennis - Australian Open


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As the time for the first Grand Slam of the year has arrived, I thought I'd post up some outright prices for starters. ;) Prices for the men's and ladies' tournaments are taken from William Hill and Gamebookers respectively. Men's Tournament : R Federer - 1.66 L Hewitt - 8.00 A Roddick - 8.00 M Safin - 11.00 A Agassi - 17.00 J Johansson - 26.00 G Coria - 26.00 D Nalbandian - 26.00 T Henman - 34.00 C Moya - 34.00 T Haas - 51.00 F Gonzalez - 51.00 Ladies' Tournament : S Williams - 4.50 M Sharapova - 5.50 L Davenport - 6.50 A Mauresmo - 6.50 A Molik - 10.00 A Myskina - 10.00 V Williams - 13.00 S Kuznetsova - 13.00 V Zvonareva - 51.00 N Petrova - 51.00 Notice the priced has dropped quite a bit over the past week for Federer from 1.72 - 1.80 to the 1.61 - 1.66 found at most places now. Fitness permitting, I don't think there really will be too much holding back Federer from winning his 5th career Grand Slam. I personally don't see any value in backing any of the top seeds on the opening day - anyway, for those who are interested, Federer is 1.03 against Santoro, Henman 1.23 against Saulnier and Hewitt 1.10 against Clement. :sad

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Re: Tennis : Australian Open 2005 Now I know I'm putting myself open to ridicule here, but isnt Henman a good bet? Racing Post seems to think so, but they quoted 50s with somebody else. Presumably hes retired from Davis Cup to give himself more chance in comps like this. Stop laughing......

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Day 1 Picks I'll kick things off here with a treble on Day 1 which might represent some value. ;) Ljubicic-Hrbaty-Monfils (4.42) Soderling hasn't been impressive and Hrbaty is certainly worth every bit the 1.57 you could pick up for him. Similarly, I don't see how claycourt specialists like Luis Horna could upset an in-form Ljubicic who should pretty much walk this one. Lastly, I must admit I think Monfils is a tad overpriced at 2.25 against Ginepri. For a start, I don't rate Ginepri as being any better than Monfils and this is no better than a 50-50 clash at best - hence, the value in Monfils. 5 pts on Treble at 4.42.

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Re: Tennis : Australian Open 2005 wouldnt back Monfils edtkh, hes got loads of potential I agree but he looks knackered in 3 set matches at the moment (santoro last week) since coming from the juniors and there is no way he is beating Ginipri 3-0, I think Robbys experiance will take him out. I do think you have a solid double though. My bets are Ginirpri, Karlovic, Baghdatis and Fish, for reasons I have given on sp ;)

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Re: Tennis : Australian Open 2005 A standout bet for me reads Hrbaty @ 1.61 @ Pinnacle as he is faring pretty well early in the season (and has done so for several seasons now). He leads the H2Hs 1-0 (albeit he won that one in three sets). One of few things Soderling is able to do is serve, but then Hrbaty's return play may prove as deadly as Sod's serve.

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Re: Tennis : Australian Open 2005

wouldnt back Monfils edtkh, hes got loads of potential I agree but he looks knackered in 3 set matches at the moment (santoro last week) since coming from the juniors and there is no way he is beating Ginipri 3-0, I think Robbys experiance will take him out. I do think you have a solid double though. My bets are Ginirpri, Karlovic, Baghdatis and Fish, for reasons I have given on sp ;)
Matt, trust me - Monfils is a lad whose potential is boundless and given his current form, I'd expect him to give most of the players outside the Top 10 a good run for his money on hardcourts. I'd pick him over Nadal anytime for a hardcourt duel - that's how highly I rate this lad. ;) On a sidenote, had that bet of mine not been placed at Ladbrokes, I'd only have been paid out for the double since Hrbaty's was a walkover as Soderling retired when he was 2 sets down - for once, I benefit from Laddies' tennis rules! :clap
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Re: Tennis : Australian Open 2005

Matt, trust me - Monfils is a lad whose potential is boundless and given his current form, I'd expect him to give most of the players outside the Top 10 a good run for his money on hardcourts. I'd pick him over Nadal anytime for a hardcourt duel - that's how highly I rate this lad. ;) On a sidenote, had that bet of mine not been placed at Ladbrokes, I'd only have been paid out for the double since Hrbaty's was a walkover as Soderling retired when he was 2 sets down - for once, I benefit from Laddies' tennis rules! :clap
Matt was questioning the stamina of Monflis, not his ability. Well done, good start to the tournament.
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Day 2 I shan't go into too much depth about picking odds-on favourites as they look pretty clearcut as things stand - will just add them to accumulators if I think they are worth that bit extra in terms of odds offered. What I will try to do in the early stages of the tournament is basically pick combinations that will yield odds nothing short of 1.50 and see where that takes me come the end of the tournament. ;) First up, I like the look of a pick which I think could represent value. 5 pts Berdych to beat Coria (3.00 - William Hill) Berdych is pretty strong on hardcourts even if he hasn't been flying coming into the Aussie Open. Coria, on the other hand, has been known to struggle on hardcourts against seemingly mediocre opponents at times and clearly doesn't command the sort of respect he does on clay. If Berdych could find his rhythm, this really shouldn't be beyond him and the 3.00 certainly looks a tad tasy IMO. :hope 7 pts Mello-Hewitt-Henman Treble (2.07 - Ladbrokes) Hewitt and Henman are pretty much self-explanatory. In Alberto Martin, Mello is up against one of the worst performers among seasoned pros on hardcourts and I just don't see Martin prevailing here. Mello is an up-and-coming player who proved to be particularly adept on hard surfaces at the end of last year (lost to Haas in 3rd Round of 2004 US Open) and is clearly poised to scale greater heights in the years ahead - honestly, Martin just won't be the man to halt Mello's progress in a best of 5 match. 7 pts Henman-Hewitt-Stepanek (2.27 - Ladbrokes) Once again, Stepanek should just have too much for Spadea here as Stepanek has proved to be an increasingly tougher competitor on hard surfaces. Having defeated the likes of Moya and Andreev on the tour coming into the Aussie Open, you just have to fancy him to edge out the veteran American here. Stepanek leads 2-1 on h2h(tied 1-1 on hardcourt) for those who are interested. I should pretty much expect Spadea to continue his trend of not having progressed beyond Round 1 of the Australian Open since 1999. 7 pts Davydenko-Gonzalez-Melzer (2.09 - Ladbrokes) I won't be touching on Gonzalez as dave has already summed up what needs to be said about that tie. Even though Davydenko's record at the Aussie Open hasn't been great down the years (3 1st Round exits and 2 2nd Round exits), I can't see Karanusic troubling him too much considering this rookie has still to win a match on the tour. Melzer certainly looks like a decent player who has come on quite a bit over the last year or so and should have little trouble overcoming the 79th-ranked Dutch player who has little pedigree at Grand Slams. Cheers & Good Luck! :D CURRENT PROFIT/LOSS : +17.1 pts

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Re: Tennis : Australian Open 2005 A few nice selections there. Im not too sure about betting against Coria, I perswonally fancy him to win. I am the same with the top seeds. Iv just been adding Hewitt, Federer and henman to all my singles and doubles, just to beef them up a bit. Come on Coria (sorry edtkh), Henman and Roddick tommorrow to make me a small fortune:hope Sco

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Re: Tennis : Australian Open 2005 Definitely like the look of Mello. He's looking like a quality player, and Martin is someone who you can never be confident about on this surface. I've bought Mello game supremacy @ 3.2, can see him taking an easy win here.

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Tennis - 18th January Hi all, I have prepared for you two short predictions for today´s matches: Michaella Krajicek to bt. Stephanie Foretz 16 years old Krajicek has once again shown her talent in qualification matches here in Melbourne, defeating Dubois, Osterloh and Voskoboeva. Especially her last match against Russian Galina Voskoboeva was played on very high level and has shown qualities of both young ladies. Her four matches in Hopman Cup definitely gave her some extra experience and self-confidence and now she has decent chance to play another top class player in the next round - Patty Schnyder. Her opponent will be Stephanie Foretz, who has been in crisis in last three months of previous season, winning only 3 matches and loosing to players like Permantier, Pichet or Gloria. But on the other hand we have to mention that she already has some experience with matches at Grand Slam tournaments - succesfully qualified for Wimbledon and US Open last year and reached second round. But it won´t be enough against promising Krajicek, who has already three matches under her belt here. Pick: Krajicek, Odds: 1.53 Shuai Peng to bt. Maria Elena Camerin Chinese Shuai Peng isn´t so well-known as other young and promising tennis players like Ivanovic, Krajicek, Douchevina etc., but without any doubt could be rate as similar talent as these players and she has fully shown it last week in Sydney, where has she easily defeated Pin, Obziler, Chladkova, Washington, Myskina and Petrova before loosing to inform Molik. Especially her wins over Russian duo is very impressive, but what´s more important her game was even more impressive and she fully deserved these wins. She is extremely hard-working, favours hardcourt and her biggest weapon is her forehand - this all has already brought her in top 50 in the rankings. Italian Camerin is typical baseline player, who prefers playing on clay, but she has made a few impressive results on hard too - defeated Likhovtseva, Myskina or Sprem in last season. She hasn´t started this season too succesfully, defeated Muller and lost to two young ladies - Karatancheva and Domachowska. And now will meet another promising player. Pick: Peng, Odds: 1.44

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Re: Tennis - 18th January There was actually already a thread I think for the tennis, but thanks for the share! I certainly agree with the first pick...a great prospect. Do you know at what time UK time the matches start on the 18th? I belive we are 9 hours behind, so I think that is at 2am UK time? Anyway good luck with your selections. Sco

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Re: Tennis - 18th January Hi Bona Fidea. Excellent analysis with your tips and I shall be watching with interest, however as Sco said, we have a thread for the Aussie Open and its all best kept in one place to avoid confusion so next time you have some info slot it in there and we'll alll take a look. Thanks and good luck

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Re: Tennis - 18th January

Hi all, I have prepared for you two short predictions for today´s matches: Michaella Krajicek to bt. Stephanie Foretz 16 years old Krajicek has once again shown her talent in qualification matches here in Melbourne, defeating Dubois, Osterloh and Voskoboeva. Especially her last match against Russian Galina Voskoboeva was played on very high level and has shown qualities of both young ladies. Her four matches in Hopman Cup definitely gave her some extra experience and self-confidence and now she has decent chance to play another top class player in the next round - Patty Schnyder. Her opponent will be Stephanie Foretz, who has been in crisis in last three months of previous season, winning only 3 matches and loosing to players like Permantier, Pichet or Gloria. But on the other hand we have to mention that she already has some experience with matches at Grand Slam tournaments - succesfully qualified for Wimbledon and US Open last year and reached second round. But it won´t be enough against promising Krajicek, who has already three matches under her belt here. Pick: Krajicek, Odds: 1.53 Shuai Peng to bt. Maria Elena Camerin Chinese Shuai Peng isn´t so well-known as other young and promising tennis players like Ivanovic, Krajicek, Douchevina etc., but without any doubt could be rate as similar talent as these players and she has fully shown it last week in Sydney, where has she easily defeated Pin, Obziler, Chladkova, Washington, Myskina and Petrova before loosing to inform Molik. Especially her wins over Russian duo is very impressive, but what´s more important her game was even more impressive and she fully deserved these wins. She is extremely hard-working, favours hardcourt and her biggest weapon is her forehand - this all has already brought her in top 50 in the rankings. Italian Camerin is typical baseline player, who prefers playing on clay, but she has made a few impressive results on hard too - defeated Likhovtseva, Myskina or Sprem in last season. She hasn´t started this season too succesfully, defeated Muller and lost to two young ladies - Karatancheva and Domachowska. And now will meet another promising player. Pick: Peng, Odds: 1.44
Good stuff, 2 easy winners.
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Day 3 Personally, I don't see too much value in favourites on Day 3 as there're quite a few fairly unpredictable games. Here are some matches which I think will offer quite a lucrative offer. 5 pts Nieminen-Hrbaty-Ljubicic treble (4.03 - Ladbrokes) Ljubicic should have little trouble beating Baghdatis as the class between the pair is just too wide IMO. In addition, Baghdatis' cause clearly isn't helped by his draining 5-setter in Round 1. Similarly, Hrbaty must be fancied to beat the unheralded Tipsarevic as the gulf in class is just too great. It wouldn't really surprise me big time if Nieminen could prove to be a tricky customer for Srichaphan as I think Nieminen is somewhat overpriced for this match. I haven't been too impressed with Srichaphan's defeat of Starace in the last round and should he repeat that horrendous quality of play against an in-form Nieminen, then this is one where anything could happen. Neither player has a great pedigree at the Aussie Open as both have just progressed beyond the 2nd round once (Nieminen made the 3rd Round in 2003 and Srichaphan the 4th Round in 2004). 2.75 for someone who would be 40-60 (at worst) to win has got to be worth a look IMO. 5 pts Calleri-Hrbaty-Ljubicic treble (3.07 - Ladbrokes) Johansson isn't setting the tournament alight with his laboured display against Luczak in the first round. Although Calleri also engaged in a 5-setter to send Mirnyi packing, I think the fact that quality of their opponents in the first round are poles apart should say something about the sort of tennis both players are playing at the moment. I just don't see how Calleri could be priced at anything above evens when this is pretty much a 50-50 game at best (Calleri leads 1-0 on h2h as well). 9 pts Monfils-Hrbaty-Ljubicic treble (3.07 - Ladbrokes) I know Matt won't agree with me on this, but this one is pretty much a steal IMO. Monfils is consistently overpriced simply because not many people know much about him, the fact he won 3 of the 4 Junior Grand Slams last year notwithstanding. Rochus is obviously a player in fine form at the moment, making the final of a tour event last week before sweeping past Kiefer in 5 sets in the last round. Nevertheless, I think that should have taken its toll on the Belgian - Monfils' stamina and all-action style could just prove too much for Rochus here. 9 pts Fish - Garcia-Lopez - Lopez - Hrbaty Acca (3.26 - Ladbrokes) Feliciano Lopez will prove too strong for the veteran Armenian Sargsian here and he should take this as comfortably as Hrbaty. Gaudio has proved (not least by his defeat to Monfils in a tour event last week) he isn't exactly comfortable on hardcourts and Fish should have more than enough to beat him. Garcia-Lopez is simply flying at the moment, not least having his confidence boosted by his defeat of Moya in the last round - I just don't see Kim troubling him at all, not to mention I'd find it hard to imagine Kim's laboured 5-set win over Hyung Taik-Lee not having an adverse impact on him. Cheers & Good Luck! :hope CURRENT PROFIT/LOSS : +36.11 pts

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open After a disastrous third day at the Aussie Open where upsets are occuring by the bucketload, it's back to picking somewhat more predictable fixtures on Day 4. :o 7 pts Gonzalez-Stepanek-Henman-Davydenko (3.00 - Ladbrokes) Gonzalez holds a 2-0 h2h edge over Andreev going into this tie - although Gonzalez took a while too get going in the opening round against Acasuso after falling two sets down, he should have enough to overcome Andreev who hasn't been flying on this surface. Henman and Davydenko shouldn't encounter too many problems against Hanescu and C Rochus respectively as both are a notch above their opponents. I should expect Stepanek to complete this acca without too much hassle as he has just proved to be in a richer vein of form coming into this tournament - needless to say, his experience should tell as well. ;) 7 pts Canas-Stepanek-Henman-Chela (3.18 - Ladbrokes) Chela should prove his worth against an unfancied Carraz with little trouble while, in spite of a h2h that weighs 3-0 in favour of his opponent, Canas should also overcome an unheralded opponent on hardcourt. Verdasco may have beaten Canas thrice (including once when Canas retired) on clay last year but quite clearly, Canas looks a different proposition when he's on hardcourts. Normal service should resume here IMO. :hope CURRENT PROFIT/LOSS : +8.11 pts

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open

I know Matt won't agree with me on this, but this one is pretty much a steal IMO. Monfils is consistently overpriced simply because not many people know much about him, the fact he won 3 of the 4 Junior Grand Slams last year notwithstanding.
I never said Monfils didnt have ability, I said he is unused to 5 set matches and to be fair Rochus did to Monfils (lost 7 games in whole match) what Ginipri should have done, long rallies, run him round the court and he is beat. Marcos Baghdatis won 3 of 4 junior grand slams in two years and no one is raving about him, you never know how players are going to progress from the juniors to the adults.
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Re: Tennis - Australian Open

I never said Monfils didnt have ability, I said he is unused to 5 set matches and to be fair Rochus did to Monfils (lost 7 games in whole match) what Ginipri should have done, long rallies, run him round the court and he is beat. Marcos Baghdatis won 3 of 4 junior grand slams in two years and no one is raving about him, you never know how players are going to progress from the juniors to the adults.
Rochus is in great form at the moment - in fact, he's been in top form since the start of the year - and I must admit the level of fitness he has shown in his defeat of Monfils did surprise me. In all honesty, Ginepri isn't exactly someone I rate at all (he's probably at the level of the JM Gambills IMO) - certainly not someone I rate enough to fancy him over Monfils. ;) I'd agree with the thing about Monfils being he hasn't really adapted and settled into the rhythm of what you'd come to expect of the Slams - Federer who was equally successful at the Juniors level took 8 attempts(before making the quarters in the 2001 Roland Garros) before he made any significant progress in the men's game. Although I see your point in saying Monfils hasn't adapted to the men's game from the Juniors, that alone isn't going to deter me from backing him when he's overpriced against some underperforming and inconsistent mug. Baghdatis beat Ljubicic today by the way... :rollin
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Re: Tennis - Australian Open I know Baghdatis won, I backed him R1 and he's a wonderful player, I think he has more natural talent than you Monfils and he certainly won the junior tournaments at a far better standard that Gael did, (last years standard was the most awful for years) Two Brits got to grand slam finals and one won the US one and was then beat by McEnroe 6-0 in an exhibition, a extremely poor standard. Monifls was actually knocked out of the US by Scoville Jenkins I think who won about 2 games in his first round proper match.

Ginepri isn't exactly someone I rate at all (he's probably at the level of the JM Gambills IMO)
You need to watch more tennis if you think Ginepri is on the level of Jan Micheal Gambill, far more. Yeah Robby isnt the finished article and has terrible problems with inconsistency, but to compare him to JMG is shocking Mr E.:loon
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Re: Tennis - Australian Open Hi all, first I have to say sorry, because I haven´t noticed this topic last time and opened new one. But for today I have prepared for you another tennis prediction, that have I published a few hours ago on other site, so actual odds are a bit lower - 2.20 instead of 2.30, but it´s still worth betting. Mariano Zabaleta to bt. Juan Carlos Ferrero Thursday, 20 January 2005, Time: 9:30 CET Tournament Australian Open Surface Hard Round Second Round Head-to-head statistics 1-3 Zabaleta 61 64 - Kitzbuhel 2003 (clay) Ferrero 67 75 63 - Kitzbuhel 2002 (clay) Ferrero 63 64 - Estoril 2000 (clay) Ferrero 76 67 64 - Graz 1999 (clay) Previous results on this tournament Zabaleta defeated Kimmich, Ferrero beat Van Gemerden. Comments Juan Carlos Ferrero, former Nr.1 in ATP rankings and French Open Champion is far away from his best form these days. His crisis has started already last season partly because of serie of injuries, partly because of lack of confidence and the result was that he ended the season only as Nr.31 in ATP rankings and lost to Carraz, Koubek, Kim etc. These days he´s only shadow of Ferrero from previous years and hasn´t started this season too succesfully - lost to Hernych in Auckland and defeated Van Gemerden in four sets, but his performance was once again far away from beiing impressive. Twelve month´s ago Ferrero´s forehand was feared on the ATP Tour, but today it´s only shadow of the weapon Ferrero once possesed, so now his only weapon is his perfect foot work, but this isn´t enough to compete with best players. Another very important fact is that Ferrero injured his right ankle and was forced to retire from the doubles match on yesterday - with Ventura was leading 53 in the final set that time. He was on the ground for a couple of minutes and then only slowly got up and today will undergo some test to decide if he will be able to play today or not. Mariano Zabaleta is maybe not the best player for hardcourt, but he still can be very dangerous here with his good serve and baseline game and has already defeated a lot of top class players on this surface too. We wanted to recommend this match even before news about Ferrero´s injury problems appeared and now we are even more confident in this pick. Other bookmakers offer higher odds on Zabaleta, but we decided to use Fonbet, because this is the only bookmaker, that won´t void this bet in case Ferrero´s retirement. Pick: Zabaleta Stake: 8 units Odds: 2.30 Bookmaker: Fonbet

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Re: Tennis - Australian Open

I know Baghdatis won, I backed him R1 and he's a wonderful player, I think he has more natural talent than you Monfils and he certainly won the junior tournaments at a far better standard that Gael did, (last years standard was the most awful for years) Two Brits got to grand slam finals and one won the US one and was then beat by McEnroe 6-0 in an exhibition, a extremely poor standard. Monifls was actually knocked out of the US by Scoville Jenkins I think who won about 2 games in his first round proper match. You need to watch more tennis if you think Ginepri is on the level of Jan Micheal Gambill, far more. Yeah Robby isnt the finished article and has terrible problems with inconsistency, but to compare him to JMG is shocking Mr E.:loon
Honestly, I can't help but form the impression that those 2 are the worst Americans competing at Grand Slams on a regular basis. If you have watched these lot enough, I just can't fathom how you could actually see much difference between them. No offence, but I certainly don't see any realistic chance of Ginepri improving very much beyond his current level - we'll see where he stands 5 years down the road in relation to where Gambill is now. :rollinAnyway, do you fancy anything for tomorrow's matches? Bona Fidea, I share your sentiments in that I'd pick Zabaleta if I had to pick one for that match. Having said that, I think that's one that's best left alone. As you have said yourself, Ferrero hasn't looked a shade of what he was in 2003 since his injury last year - on the other hand, Zabaleta isn't a credible enough performer on hardcourts for me to trust my money with. Good luck if you're waging on that game though. ;)
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Re: Tennis - Australian Open Well I made a few selections I have already posted them in the systems and strategy thread, so il just post the link to there...to save me time. http://www.punterslounge.com/showthread.php?t=11737 One player who I think really has a good chance to go far in Mario Ancic...(The new ivansivic) He is a class player and seems to be playing fairly well at the moment. Sco

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