BBOTD 18Th Of October

[Petersson1984]

17:00 Lingfield Efistorm Win (4,50) William Hill Despite been 10 years old, Efistorm are in the form of his life. 2011 have been the best year so far and his recent form is amazing. In his last 10 runs he won 4 and placed 3. Most of his win this season came on turf and only 1 out of 11 runs on AW was won (April 2011). All those great performences on turf got the handicappers attention. Now back on AW he is down 10lb and that might be to his advantage. Efistorms recent form. 6-1-1-1-2 The jockey Kirsty Milczarek had a below avarage season and are whitout a win in the last two weeks. AW seems to suit her well dough. In the last 5 seasons she 11% of her runs on AW and just 9 % on turf.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October 3:30 Lingfield - Muhamee Saeed Bin Suroor is 60% (18 from 30) over the past 5 seasons with 2yo's here, and 3 from 3 this year. It's his only runner at the track and Louis Bezelin has the ride. The young jockey is 1 in 1 for Goldophin and I fancy a piece of the 10/1 forecast if I can get anywhere near it when the markets open.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October 1730 lingfield lord of the reins 1pt win 7/1 bet365 ran in a listed race last time out, which he was outclassed, back in class 5, which he won the time before,already won 14 times,11 on the all weather,has won at the course and distance and is ridden by k t oneill,who has a valuable 3lb claim

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October 5.30 Lingfield Good looking sprint handicap with plenty of usual AW horses in the lineup and some look a bit overpriced in my opinion! Go Nani Go has had a good late summer campaign with finally another win but has struggled from his new mark probably found soft ground too much last time out, but overall strike rate is off putting now and also only had 1 AW run and was down the field. Lord Of The Reins goes well at Kempton but cashed in on much lower turf mark on penultimate start and could go well again if in that sort of form, but he is handicapped probably to just about his best on the AW 6lb higher than last win although has won off higher in the past and has 2 wins from 5 runs around here and is a worthy saver in my opinion from a good draw. Absa Lutte is a sort that could go well if in the mood but has rapidly become frustrating and is probably worth opposing again. Chjimes is usually competitive around here but doesnt have the best record fresh and tends to go better when having several runs on the bounce and yard also struggling for winners at the moment. Boogie Waltzer is a consistent sort and a credit for connections with a decent strike rate but is probably handicapped to his best now, last winning at Southwell off a mark of 69 runs off 70 today and has generally struggled off higher marks although signs of a return to form last time out but nothing to really suggest he is a winner waiting to happen fading in the finish on soft ground which is disappointing considering he has stamina over further and plenty of form on soft ground. There only appears to be one front runner in this field and he isnt exactly confirmed and that is Boogie Waltzer which puts me off the short priced favourite Rebecca Romero who clearly needs a strong pace to chase and also Estonia would have been a lot of interest had there been presence of more front runners as she has shown more of her old spark finishing well recently on last 2 starts on the AW but needs them to go hard up front which is unlikely here. Therefore looking at the race itself its gonna pay to race handy I feel from a good draw and therefore what looked like a saver bet looks the main bet now, Lord Of The Reins should go well at a good E/W price for a yard going well right now! 0.5pt e/w Lord Of The Reins 8/1 hills

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October 16:30 Lingfield MIRABILE VISU has only one decent piece of form to her name, which came last season in a pretty decent Newbury maiden over the 6f trip. Although likely flattered a little by her run there, I think she’s had a few legitimate excuses since and now given plenty of respite by the handicapper and now returned to a more conventional track and dropped into a modest affair, she could outrun these 33/1 odds quite significantly. Heather Main’s filly showed little on her first two starts as a 2 year-old but looked to have turned the corner on her third outing, when she outran odds of 200/1 to finish 4^th in a typically competitive Newbury maiden. There wasn’t much of a fluke about it I thought, she looked straightforward and it wasn’t like there was she was ideally positioned throughout. On that run, she looked like a horse that could perform with a rating in the 60’s fairly easily. However, it hasn’t turned out that way and she’s either been set quite quite difficult tasks (as seen on her handicap debut) or ran on soft ground on undulating tracks. It seems to be that all her “quirks” seem to arise on these courses such as Goodwood, Epsom and Chepstow and although on the first mentioned, she looked like she retained most of her ability it does seem that she doesn’t handle these types of awkward tracks, especially if you compare her behaviour in-running on those starts to her run at Newbury when she looked fairly professional. Today she’s switched to Lingfield which of course is a flat, conventional all-weather course. She didn’t exactly show much on her two all-weather starts to date but those were her first two in her career and she’s bred to handle the all-weather (half-sibling won on an artificial surface). It may be that she possesses none of the ability that she potentially showed on her third start at Newbury, but as she’s now given a chance by the handicapper with a rating of 55 and If the flat track and all-weather ground sparks a revival, she could improve on that mark fairly significantly. She’s worth a try at these big odds of 33/1 on a poor day of racing, as she seems the type that will go in at a big price one day if she puts it all in. Whether today is the day, is anyone’s guess. MIRABILE VISU; EW @ 33/1 Bet365 (bog)

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October 4:50 Swansea Jack @ Yarmouth - Beaten favourite LTO but that was on the all weather.Did win its previous race on the all weather and won here at Yarmouth over course and distance the race before that.William Carson is onboard and was onboard last October when winning twice and coming 3rd in one. 1pt Win bet @ SP

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October Ling 2.30 - Suhailah - ew at 16/1 bog Wm Hill This is a poor horse in a poor race but at least he has run some decent races here at lingfield. Both his career wins have been here. Has been gradually getting closer in his 3 runs since a summer break and ran quite well last time out at kempton where he was in place contention behind a 7 length winner, finishing 4th. is now a pound below his last winning mark and one of his wins was in a big field (15 runners, same as tomorrow when the inevitable one pulls out for bookie purposes) Yard in decent nick with 3 winners from the last 10 runners

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October Morrow - Yarmouth 2:20 - WIN @ 9/2 Bet365 BOG Frankie Dettori chooses to ride this horse over the other Godolphin horse Hikma. Interestingly he has 2 rides today and both are on newcomers. Morrow is a half-sister to Flashing who was a Group 1 winner so if anything as good as that should be able to win a Class 5 maiden. Al Zarooni is very good at readying a newcomer and i think its an attractive price.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October Y4.50 Spade 0.5pt E/W 20/1 Paddy Power This one has been tried over all sorts of trips on all sorts of ground, but I think todays conditions could be more suitable. The horse has been weakening over further distances of late having been slowly away on most starts. Providing it doesn't give too much ground away at the start again today, I can see it staying on and hopefully being competitive at a nice price. A couple of firms have cut their prices already so hopefully I'm on the right lines and some money comes for it during the day.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October 4.30 Lingfield Shostakovich went close here in a claimer over 7F last week. Back down in trip and still on a very good mark he should go very close here. Doyle back on board and has only ever won over this trip so every chance he will get another win on the board. 1 Pt win 11/2 Ladbrokes

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October 5.30 Lingfield Estonia - mutilple CD winner and ran well as expected in a claimer last time on unfavourable terms. Goes well at Lingfield and providing they dont dawdle, and she races keenly, looks capable of running a race. 7/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October 410 Exeter: Rory Boy 1pt 9/2 VCBet Rubbish racing and an awful race but a chance is taken on Rory Boy, this time last year he was rated 135 and running in a £31,000 race at Cheltenham, now down to 109 and left Twiston-Davies. Ran on the AW at Wolver to clean out the cob webs and basically it was schooling in public, well behind and stayed on late without getting into the race. Faces 4 right dodgy rivals here, Moorstead is likley to sulk at any minute alothough he may get an easy lead here, Coach Lane has a mind of his own but AP on board so is terrible value, Daneva fell in a selling hurdle last time and the fav Wrapitipboys ran poorly last time with AP on top over hurdles and has limited form in Ireland, looks high in the weights for what he has achieved to me? 9/2 looks big enough for a small interest in the hope that the switch in yards has freshened Rory Boy up, he only needs to be near his best to beat this bunch.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October Lord Of The Reins - Lin 5.30 (1pt win 17-2 SJ) I'm going to join the corky and Chris34 bandwagon on this one. Switched stables after back-to-back wins at Kempton in April, and has only run four times for PJ O'Gorman. Disappointed on first two runs over 6f and 7f before winning over 5f at Folkestone. Was then stepped up to a Listed race and was very predictably totally outclassed. Although he has won a few times over 6f, I believe that he is better over the minimum trip that he encounters today. The promising apprentice Keiran O'Neill is on board again today, which is encouraging as the same jockey was on board for the recent Folkestone win.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October A bit of money for a few of these new comers but i'll side with trainer Mr W.Haggas in race 3 on the card at Yarmouth. Its first time on the track for the owned Cheveley Park Stud runner and Mr Haggas has booked jockey Mr P.Hanagan to take the ride. The 2yr old bay filly also has an entry at Newbury on Friday in a class 4 but if she wins today i'd guess they might stick her aside for another day. She could be anything today but i'll have a wee pop. Yarmouth - 2:50 Shatter. 0.5 e/w bet 10/1 most firms, Tote, Betfred, SJ - etc etc. Hope your day has lady luck show up.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October DESERT FALLS 4.30 Lingfield. 0.5 points each way. A bit frustrating, but this is a weak race full of horses that are inconsistent and think too much. The trip and surface is fine and hard to see him not hitting the frame today, at least. Amy Ryan capable of doing the job, so with the handicapper giving him chances (in context with others in the race) of a mark of 58 he should go very close today. 6/1 Boylesports BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October Even Bolder 5.30 Lingfield. 0.5 points each way. Not for for quite a while, but I was at Brighton the other day and backed him each way. He came in 5th, but did have every chance if brave enough to come through on the rail. However, thought too much about it and I couldn't help feeling he's wise to the game now. With that in mind I'm pleased to see the blinkers applied today for the first time, which is strange at this time in his career, but I feel they may work and bring about a few pounds of improvement on recent efforts. If that's the case, then he can definitely win this race. The trip's fine and proved he handles this surface in the past, so all in all, if the blinkers work, he should run a very big race at decent odds. 10/1 Bet365 (bog)

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October 2:10 Exeter - Soulard - Back Should be an absolute banker here. Only has 2 rivals to beat here and is clearly thenest horse in this line up. Ran an absolute belter when 2nd lto and it would be a real shock if he wasn't able to go one better here. Very short but I think it's justifiable 1pt win @ 1/7 Hills BOG

[markmywords]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October 16:20 Yarm Faith and Hope - Yard in form with Deacon Blues doing as expected on Saturday. Decent draw in stall 14. Last handicap race was class 5 off a mark off 67 where once headed weakened final furlong. then entered maiden stakes class 5 beaten by Ducal rated 71. Is now running off 60 and I think that is a fair mark hopefully K. Fallon should get the business out of her this time. Back to a mile where finished 3.5lengths behind Gracefield in May at that distance. Gracefield now in 80's in better class handicaps. 0.5EW 16/1 bet365

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD 18Th Of October 5.00 Lingfield Liby's Dream win @ 4/1 Bet365 Think this horse has a massive chance in this race today. She just got caught on the line on her handicap debut at Kempton over 6f in a stronger handicap than this. Lingfield suits hold up horses much more than Kempton so I expect her finishing burst to be strong enough today. Sometimes at Kempton you see horses come with a late flurry but are unable to sustain it all the way to line. Lingfield is a very different track and the outcome of races can change completely in the final 100 yds or so. Liby's Dream should go very close if ridden the same way today in this weaker race, on a track that should suit.