Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October

[ultravires]

Saturday 15 October 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Catania v Internazionale (17:00 BST)	4	3.35	2.12	102.02 %
	AC Milan v Palermo (19:45 BST)	1.53	4.3	8	100.97 %
	Napoli v Parma (19:45 BST)	1.53	4.1	8	102.11 %
	Sunday 16 October 2011	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Cesena v Fiorentina (11:30 BST)	3.25	3.25	2.52	101.22 %
	Atalanta v Udinese (14:00 BST)	2.75	3.35	2.94	100.23 %
	Cagliari v Siena (14:00 BST)	2	3.4	4.5	101.63 %
	Chievo v Juventus (14:00 BST)	4.3	3.3	2.12	100.73 %
	Genoa v Lecce (14:00 BST)	1.6	4.1	7	101.18 %
	Novara v Bologna (14:00 BST)	2.15	3.35	4	101.36 %
	Lazio v AS Roma (19:45 BST)	2.76	3.3	2.96	100.32 %

[Kumanovac]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October Italian football is hard to guess this days. Many loses all around the world, but mostly on the winner betting. Better situation with the goals market. I cannot be sure at any of the final outcomes, as far as the 1X2 betting, I will try betting on goals. Genoa-Lecce BTS&over 2,5 @ 2,45 Genoa has some extra players, but IMO they are far from a compact team so far. They couldn't establish cohesion so far, but on the other hand the individual quality provides them with goals. I think that Lecce can use this situation and score at least once. I expect results such as 2:1, 2:2, 3:2. Milan-Palermo BTS @ 1,8 I love Palermo's offensive part. Miccoli, Ilicic, Pinilla, even Hernandez. They will be aggressive for this game, similar like they were against Inter (4:3 at home). I think that Milan's slow defense could not stop this threat at least once. On the other hand Milan has to score, although they are not so prolific offensively.

[Zacharael]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October Hey vires, what is your opinion for Napoli and Udinese double ? Sure both Atalanta and Udinese are on a good run of form, but I consider that Udinese has the strength to continue the good form against Atalanta. Feedback would be appreciated :)

[Epomire]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October

Hey vires' date=' what is your opinion for Napoli and Udinese double ? Sure both Atalanta and Udinese are on a good run of form, but I consider that Udinese has the strength to continue the good form against Atalanta. Feedback would be appreciated :)[/quote'] Napoli it's ok, but in my opinion Atalanta in this moment is a good team, and the best pick is both team score! Or over 2,5!

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October Napoli seems safe enough bet. They're in a good place at the moment and are at full strength. I have taken Udinese DNB at around evens. Both teams are in good form at the moment, and both are playing attacking football. Atalanta being the home side will look to advance forward. Udinese will in turn play their usual counter game. I'm happy to take Udinese with the draw cover but goals too seems like it could be an option though I'm not as comfortable with picking it. Both have good squad strength for this match with all key players available. I also like Palermo on the +1.5 line as they can easily score against anyone. Milan have players returning so goals seems like a good pick in that match. I guess as a general rule the International break makes the dogs a little more appealing as most teams - particularly the big ones - lose a lot of players and perhaps momentum.

[Dylan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October For Saturday; Catania vs Inter – over 2.5 goals 2.1 at Coral (3.5 units) Always worth getting on the overs with Inter at the moment given how terrible their defence has been recently. After Gasperini and his 3 man defence was shown the Inter door I expected Ranieiri to come in and ensure a bit more defensive stability but this hasn’t really been the case as he is still stuck with the same players. Against Napoli they were pretty terrible, messing up the offside trap, not closing the ball down (prime example being Maggio’s goal) and at times the back 4 seemed way more interested in attacking rather than defending. Not a good sign for Ranieri. I think Catania will sense this vulnerability and go for the win in front of their home fans, similar to how Novara did earlier in the season. If they do then they have enough experience and a bit of flair in attack to exploit any lapses Inter make. However Inter are still decent going forward, they have Sneidjer back who is likely to get a few minutes, and assuming they go with Pazzini and Zarate up front as is being suggested than I can see this partnership working reasonably well. If Catania do press forward like I think they will to get the win, they could expose a few gaps themselves which all adds up to an overs match. Napoli vs Parma – only one team to score 2.1 at Coral (2.5 units) Like a few already on this thread I fancy Napoli to win this one quite comfortably, however I’ve decided against backing them on a handicap as after an international break it can often take a while for teams to find there rhythm again, and additionally they may be looking to not over exert with another big Champions League match in midweek. As well as those points I also think Napoli will have a few concerns over both Giovinco and Biabany who often find space in wide areas, an area where at times Napoli could be exploited and so I expect the wing backs to be a bit more reserved for Napoli in this match. In doing so this will limit a little Napoli’s attacking threat and whilst with the front three they have you expect them to get a goal from somewhere I can’t see much more than that. :hope

[dangelove1]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October

For Saturday; Catania vs Inter – over 2.5 goals 2.1 at Coral (3.5 units) Always worth getting on the overs with Inter at the moment given how terrible their defence has been recently. After Gasperini and his 3 man defence was shown the Inter door I expected Ranieiri to come in and ensure a bit more defensive stability but this hasn’t really been the case as he is still stuck with the same players. Against Napoli they were pretty terrible, messing up the offside trap, not closing the ball down (prime example being Maggio’s goal) and at times the back 4 seemed way more interested in attacking rather than defending. Not a good sign for Ranieri. I think Catania will sense this vulnerability and go for the win in front of their home fans, similar to how Novara did earlier in the season. If they do then they have enough experience and a bit of flair in attack to exploit any lapses Inter make. However Inter are still decent going forward, they have Sneidjer back who is likely to get a few minutes, and assuming they go with Pazzini and Zarate up front as is being suggested than I can see this partnership working reasonably well. If Catania do press forward like I think they will to get the win, they could expose a few gaps themselves which all adds up to an overs match. Napoli vs Parma – only one team to score 2.1 at Coral (2.5 units) Like a few already on this thread I fancy Napoli to win this one quite comfortably, however I’ve decided against backing them on a handicap as after an international break it can often take a while for teams to find there rhythm again, and additionally they may be looking to not over exert with another big Champions League match in midweek. As well as those points I also think Napoli will have a few concerns over both Giovinco and Biabany who often find space in wide areas, an area where at times Napoli could be exploited and so I expect the wing backs to be a bit more reserved for Napoli in this match. In doing so this will limit a little Napoli’s attacking threat and whilst with the front three they have you expect them to get a goal from somewhere I can’t see much more than that. :hope

Stack with the same players - these players where european champions 2010 ( I mean the defence - Maicon, Lucio, Chivu, Samuel is a world class too) Ranieri need to do his job and then the game will easly go to comfortable win for inter as they need to win here I don't see them droping donw in the tabble any more and the 9 wins out of 10 games between these teames are proove. Muntari must not play ofcourse as he has 3 red cards i the last 4 - 5 games against Catania :spank

[wolvesfan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October is giovinco available? I read he may be out

[ultravires]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October http://www.gazzetta.it/Calcio/prob_form/ He's available and expected to start.

[Fear And Loathing]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October I like Palermo DrawNoBet @ 9/2. Milan have had a very poor start, beating only Catania at home 1-0 in the league. Palermo have lost just once this seaon, away to Atalanta, and whilst they’re historically not that great on the road, they are unbeaten away to Milan in three visits, winning two. Milan still have a few missing through injuries and suspensions, and have looked very out-of-sorts, whilst Palermo are virtually at full strentgh Overs could be a good shout as well – 8 of their last 10 meetings have gone Over 2.5 goals, averaging 3.1 goals per game. Price a bit short though.

[Dylan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October

For Saturday; Catania vs Inter – over 2.5 goals 2.1 at Coral (3.5 units) :ok Napoli vs Parma – only one team to score 2.1 at Coral (2.5 units) :\

Main bet won so small +1.4 unit profit. For tomorrow only the one I like; Chievo vs Juve - Juve to win 2.2 at Victor Chandler (4 units) Juve are looking great at the minute and with no European football midweek and with the best squad in the league allowing them cover any fitness issues follow the international break (i.e Del Piero may well come in for Vidal) I don't expect them to suffer like Napoli & Inter already have this weekend. Sure it might take them a while to find the rhythm they had before the break but i'm sure they will find it and once they do they should have enough to get past Chievo. Chievo despite sitting mid table are yet to convince me this season. They've looked short of ideas going forward in the two games I've seen them (although both away from home), and the results and points picked up in there home matches have been a little fortunate. Against Genoa they were a goal down before Genoa had a man sent off and against Napoli they came up against an extremely weakened team and getting the win would have undoubtedly been a lot harder if they were at full strength. :hope

[Dylan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October I've actually found a few more for today; Cesena vs Fiorentina – Fiorentina to win 2.4 at unibet (2 units) It’s been a horrible start to the season for Cesena, performances have been ok in some of the matches but if you’re not picking up points then the team will soon get demoralised. On top of that they are missing two key players today in Commoto and Colluci, which doesn’t bode well. There’s no way I can see them being able to win this match, with this poor form, injuries and overall lack of goal scoring intent. The question then is whether Fiorentina can do enough to get the win. They haven’t been great under Mihajlovic on the road since he took over, but picked up a decent draw against Napoli last time out. They have no new injury worries and with the manager having been very strong in handling Vargas’s misdemeanors then I don’t see this has having any lingering effect on the team. One thing Cesena really struggle with is players running at them and in Jovetic and Cerci especially Fiorentina have a couple who will do just that and if they do then they should be able to create enough opportunities to get the win. Novara vs Bologna – over 2.5 goals 2.0 at bet365 (2.5 units) From what I’ve seen of Novara this season they look like a great side to back on the overs at the moment. They are confident and persistent in attacking but have many defensive weaknesses. All of there matches so far this season have gone over. Novara are very good at sensing frailties in the opposition and Bologna have many of these today. They have a new manager coaching his first game for the club, and a fair few injuries and suspensions with many of these too key defensive players such as Perez, Gillet and Antonson. I expect Novara to capitalise of this, but with a full strength attack with Diamianti, Aquafrescha and Di Vaio Bologna are good enough to unlock this Novara defence, which is something that doesn’t take much effort anyway. Genoa vs Leece – Genoa -1 AH 2.0 at Stan James (2.5 units) Not sure whether I’ve seen Leece in action yet this season, but based on results and what’s been written about them they don’t look like a team who will be able to resist this Genoa side who are very good at home. Genoa have no new injuries to worry about and having lost the last two games both away from home, they will look to return to form with a bang in front of their own fans here especially with Roma and Inter up next. Leece on the other hand are without Di Michele, Julio Sergio and Ferrario so with issues in attack and defence this should play into Genoa’s hands nicely.

[Dr Hook]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October I like backing draws in Italy as they tend to be low scoring affairs. The odds aren't as restrictive as the French league. At the time of writing (88 mins gone in 5 games) they're on course for 5 out of 6 goalless draws. Is something suspicious going on??

[heniek31]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October WTF?

Italy - Serie A
17:00	October 16
FT	Cesena	0 - 0	Fiorentina
FT	Atalanta	0 - 0	Udinese
FT	Cagliari	0 - 0	Siena
FT	Chievo	0 - 0	Juventus
FT	Genoa	0 - 0	Lecce
FT	Novara	0 - 2	Bologna

[nicknab]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October The one of few times i dont do a lucky 15 bet on draws in serie a lol!! Ah well:wall

[Petersson1984]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October Thats why Serie A, is the most exciting league in europe.. :rollin

[grieksken]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October Lol, that's really Italian football as I know it :D Looking forward for the last game, Lazio - As Roma. Any ideas? I'm really intrested in the booking odds or red card shown, always a lot of cards in this derby... I actually fancy Lazio aswell,but how strong are they?

[artist]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October

Genoa-Lecce BTS&over 2,5 @ 2,45 Milan-Palermo BTS @ 1,8

Man, really, I've watched your posts and you are, I dunno how to call you, either someone who doesn't have anything to do with this business (betting and giving advice about betting) or someone who is paid by bookies to mislead people.:lol . In any case, thank you ! You are leading me just fine. I bet against whatever you say(if I have a doubt about a game I always consult your opinion and if you agree with my selection, not only I worry, but I also give up betting on that match) and it works till now. Please continue to post cause you're not even random ... you're completely against any reasonable choice ... I dunno. Keep being an inspiration on what to never bet or what to bet against.

[Aidymac]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October

Man' date=' really, I've watched your posts and you are, I dunno how to call you, either someone who doesn't have anything to do with this business (betting and giving advice about betting) or someone who is paid by bookies to mislead people.:lol . In any case, thank you ! You are leading me just fine. I bet against whatever you say(if I have a doubt about a game I always consult your opinion and if you agree with my selection, not only I worry, but I also give up betting on that match) and it works till now. Please continue to post cause you're not even random ... you're completely against any reasonable choice ... I dunno. Keep being an inspiration on what to never bet or what to bet against.[/quote'] Sad post! Grow up

[Toronto_Mike]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October Well I have not wagered on the Serie A as much as I had a few seasons ago where the game was more open....I read an article on goal.com about how the Serie A has more goals than before, and I thought are you kidding me? There have been a few thrillers but really unlike seasons passed, there are only a few games you'll have a ton of goals while you'll generally have the typical low scoring affair. It's sad to see where this league is going, I was very happy to pass up this league last season as now the parity has been distributed more evenly. You also have to be aware that things do balance out, I'm eagerly awaiting how the books will adjust for the lines next weekend, will they be forced to go to o/u 2 or even o/u 1.75? I think the fact that this is a very very open Scudetto race teams are a bit more conservative...when it was rather automatic that Inter would win, teams really just said lets go for it, now teams have belief that they can beat Inter, they can beat Milan, they can beat Juve, etc so the defensive approach is taken. This is just my observation but I will wait till past the winter break to start wagering on this league again. gl gents

[allthethings]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October

Well I have not wagered on the Serie A as much as I had a few seasons ago where the game was more open....I read an article on goal.com about how the Serie A has more goals than before, and I thought are you kidding me? There have been a few thrillers but really unlike seasons passed, there are only a few games you'll have a ton of goals while you'll generally have the typical low scoring affair. It's sad to see where this league is going, I was very happy to pass up this league last season as now the parity has been distributed more evenly. You also have to be aware that things do balance out, I'm eagerly awaiting how the books will adjust for the lines next weekend, will they be forced to go to o/u 2 or even o/u 1.75? I think the fact that this is a very very open Scudetto race teams are a bit more conservative...when it was rather automatic that Inter would win, teams really just said lets go for it, now teams have belief that they can beat Inter, they can beat Milan, they can beat Juve, etc so the defensive approach is taken. This is just my observation but I will wait till past the winter break to start wagering on this league again. gl gents

Hey Mike. To me it just offers a different opportunity...if Serie A gets more like France Ligue 2, where a dozen teams at 6-4-4 switch places at the top week by week, then we must adjust as well, start taking the underdogs priced at 4.00 or better, since bettors will continue to believe that team A is yards ahead of Team B, whether it is true or not, and bookies will continue to price them accordingly. Look at Serie B...results are essentially random, and yet every week there are four or five games priced up at 4 and 5...

[Dylan]

Re: Italy - Serie A - 15-16 October I don't think its that bad a league in terms of goals. I've had a quick look at the stats and in the first 5 rounds of games it has been the lowest scoring league compared to Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga but not by much. Overall average was 2.6 goals a game, with the highest (Bundesliga) having 2.9 game. When you consider that the German league has one team and to a more extent La Liga has a couple of teams that win 5-0 etc every week then I don't think those stats reflect that badly on Serie A. Yesterday was hopefully just an anomaly in terms of results. Thinking about results this season I don't think there have been too many surprises either. You could have predicted Roma's, Inter or Milan's struggles earlier in the season given the problems they have had with tactics and injurise and i'm sure a lot of punters were able to make their money off them. Other than Napoli's result on Saturday I can't immediatly think of another really surprising upset so far this season. I had an awful weekend with bets but truth be told none of them to too far off; - Juve had 65% of possesion against Chievo who never troubled but were a little sluggish in their play and unable to find the winner. We've seen this all of Juve's away matches this season but they've been able to score in both previous away games so don't think it was too far fetched to expect a goal here. - Fiorentina had the better chances against Cesena, and with a man advantage should have pressed for the win in the last 15 minutes, but the manager dissapointed me in his tactics leaving the hopeless Silva on all game. Still Cesena were more or less limited to shots outside the box and Fiorentina had all the best chances. - Looks like Genoa had the better of the game (9 shots on targets to Leece's 1) but a goal wasnt forthcoming. The red card with 10 minutes to go probably ruined any chance of a Genoa winner and making my bet void. - Just needed one more goal in the Novara game but wasn't to be. Sounds like Novara where dissapointing in and around the penalty area, which is a surprise given that before this game they had 3 goals in each of their previous home games.