Spooner Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Friday 7 October 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Saint Vincent and the Grenadines v Guatemala (20:00 BST) 10.2 5.37 1.17 113.84 % Uruguay v Bolivia (20:00 BST) 1.25 6.5 19 100.65 % Dominican Republic v El Salvador (20:05 BST) 9.5 4.5 1.3 109.67 % Barbados v Guyana (21:00 BST) 2.6 3.2 2.5 109.71 % United States Virgin Islands v Haiti (21:00 BST) 12 6.1 1.18 109.47 % Ecuador v Venezuela (22:05 BST) 1.53 4.33 8 100.79 % Belize v Grenada (22:30 BST) 1.85 3.3 3.95 109.67 % Dominica v Panama (23:00 BST) 1.02 1.25 1.02 276.08 % Saint Lucia v Canada (23:00 BST) 17.5 7.75 1.1 109.53 % Saturday 8 October 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Bermuda v Trinidad and Tobago (00:00 BST) 9.5 4.5 1.3 109.67 % Argentina v Chile (00:10 BST) 1.44 4.9 8.5 101.62 % Curaçao v Antigua and Barbuda (01:00 BST) 7.6 4 1.4 109.59 % Puerto Rico v Saint Kitts and Nevis (01:00 BST) 1.95 3.25 3.65 109.45 % Cayman Islands v Suriname (01:30 BST) 9.75 4.33 1.32 109.09 % Peru v Paraguay (02:15 BST) 2.75 3.25 2.92 101.38 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Ah, the glorious Grenadans return. I took you on a +5 handicap in the Gold Cup against the mighty Honduras, and you still lost 7-1 :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AHughes Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Surely its worth backing Chile on a handicap ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Surely its worth backing Chile on a handicap ? Why? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedDevil92 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Why? ;) Argentina is totally out of form.But on the other hand,you have a team that is without their best player,Alexis Sanchez. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elwormio Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October What's the craic with those odds in the Dominica/Panama game - both teams 1/50 unless I'm reading it wrong??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October What's the craic with those odds in the Dominica/Panama game - both teams 1/50 unless I'm reading it wrong???It's because the only market around is betfair at the moment, no bookmakers on odds comparison have priced it up. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elwormio Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October It's because the only market around is betfair at the moment' date=' no bookmakers on odds comparison have priced it up. :ok[/quote'] Cheers spooner:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Haiti -2 (EH) @ 1.9 (Paddy Power) US Virgin Islands are a very small team, the country comprises of three different islands and the population is very small. They have only played 28 games ever in their history, and often have played only two or three games a year. Read this article to get a flavour of what they are like. http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/news/newsid=1490215.html. They lose games against opposition the calibre of Haiti by big margins, often 8-0 or 10-0. The away tie against Haiti finished 6-0. I found one brief report which described it as being "like a training session". It is also not guaranteed that all the first team players will be there, as many go to College in the US and they won't necessarily be able to travel 1,000 miles to their home islands to play in this fixture. Haiti meanwhile are one of the better sides in the region. They have players who ply their trade in countries such as the US, France, Argentina and Belgium. Recent results of note include a draw with the US and a friendly win in Qatar. They have a lot more experience than the Virgin Islanders, as they frequently play top international sides, including Mexico and Argentina, in friendlies or the Gold Cup. Taking all this into account I think a simple -2 handicap is a steal at this price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Haiti -2 (EH) @ 1.9 (Paddy Power) US Virgin Islands are a very small team, the country comprises of three different islands and the population is very small. They have only played 28 games ever in their history, and often have played only two or three games a year. Read this article to get a flavour of what they are like. http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/news/newsid=1490215.html. They lose games against opposition the calibre of Haiti by big margins, often 8-0 or 10-0. The away tie against Haiti finished 6-0. I found one brief report which described it as being "like a training session". It is also not guaranteed that all the first team players will be there, as many go to College in the US and they won't necessarily be able to travel 1,000 miles to their home islands to play in this fixture. Haiti meanwhile are one of the better sides in the region. They have players who ply their trade in countries such as the US, France, Argentina and Belgium. Recent results of note include a draw with the US and a friendly win in Qatar. They have a lot more experience than the Virgin Islanders, as they frequently play top international sides, including Mexico and Argentina, in friendlies or the Gold Cup. Taking all this into account I think a simple -2 handicap is a steal at this price. I have been looking at these games myself as it's been a quiet week :) There are a few mis-matches that hopefully the books will price up some more markets on. For this game, I think it might be worth waiting to see if you can get a better price than 1.9 on the -2 EH. The reason I say this is that Powers seem to have based this on a match odds of 1.08, however other bookies have much better match odds (e.g. Bet365 go 1.18). I just took a quick example with the France V Albania match. Bet365 are 1.11 on a home win, and go 2.3 on France -2 EH. Therefore I think it would be reasonable to expect that on a team with longer match odds (1.18 Vs 1.11), the -2 EH would be bigger than 2.3. I know that France probably isn't the best example to take due to their penchant for low scoring games, but I hope you get my point. :ok Another possible bet on this game could be BTTS No with BWIN. They are odds against on this at 2.15. Haiti had only conceded 1 goal in 3 games (and that to El Salvador who are a top team at this level) prior to shipping 2 to Curacao last time out in a 4-2 away win. Going to have another look at some of these games now, will share my thoughts if I see anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October I have been looking at these games myself as it's been a quiet week :) There are a few mis-matches that hopefully the books will price up some more markets on. For this game, I think it might be worth waiting to see if you can get a better price than 1.9 on the -2 EH. The reason I say this is that Powers seem to have based this on a match odds of 1.08, however other bookies have much better match odds (e.g. Bet365 go 1.18). I just took a quick example with the France V Albania match. Bet365 are 1.11 on a home win, and go 2.3 on France -2 EH. Therefore I think it would be reasonable to expect that on a team with longer match odds (1.18 Vs 1.11), the -2 EH would be bigger than 2.3. I know that France probably isn't the best example to take due to their penchant for low scoring games, but I hope you get my point. :ok Another possible bet on this game could be BTTS No with BWIN. They are odds against on this at 2.15. Haiti had only conceded 1 goal in 3 games (and that to El Salvador who are a top team at this level) prior to shipping 2 to Curacao last time out in a 4-2 away win. Going to have another look at some of these games now, will share my thoughts if I see anything. I see your point about better odds but I just wasn't sure that other bookies were going to price up the handicaps or not. If they do then they should be bigger prices. I am sure that PP simply got the 1.9 figure from an algorithm/formula they use based on the 1.08, because if you look at US Virgin Islands' results they are shocking! The BTTS no is also a fantastic price so thanks for sharing. I am also doing a fourfold of Guatemala/Haiti/Canada/Panama which comes to evens with Bet365. Looking at the history books I could not see one instance of a decent Central American side (Canada are comparable to these in terms of quality) failing to beat a poor Carribean side. Teams like Guatemala sometimes lose to Jamaica or Trinidad & Tobago but not to the likes of St. Lucia. These sides have very little experience of playing top international teams and almost all their players are domestic based. Like the US Virgin Islands, some of them do not play that often either. I watched the Gold Cup and even the mid-ranging Carribean sides like Cuba and Grenada were completely outclassed by opponents of this calibre, so I think these games should all end in easy away victories. If you find anything else of note I'd be interested to see it. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October I see your point about better odds but I just wasn't sure that other bookies were going to price up the handicaps or not. If they do then they should be bigger prices. I am sure that PP simply got the 1.9 figure from an algorithm/formula they use based on the 1.08, because if you look at US Virgin Islands' results they are shocking! The BTTS no is also a fantastic price so thanks for sharing. I am also doing a fourfold of Guatemala/Haiti/Canada/Panama which comes to evens with Bet365. Looking at the history books I could not see one instance of a decent Central American side (Canada are comparable to these in terms of quality) failing to beat a poor Carribean side. Teams like Guatemala sometimes lose to Jamaica or Trinidad & Tobago but not to the likes of St. Lucia. These sides have very little experience of playing top international teams and almost all their players are domestic based. Like the US Virgin Islands, some of them do not play that often either. I watched the Gold Cup and even the mid-ranging Carribean sides like Cuba and Grenada were completely outclassed by opponents of this calibre, so I think these games should all end in easy away victories. If you find anything else of note I'd be interested to see it. :ok Yeah mate, fully understand that other books may not even price up the handicaps etc. Just the PP match odds jumped out at me as particularly short. Re: your fourfold, I came up with the very same one :lol Played it already with Ladbrokes @2.06. Not much to add to your points. Couple of others I am considering at this stage. Curacao V Antiga looks good for goals. Results to date: Antiga 5-2 Curacao Curacao 2 - 4 Haiti US Virgin Islands 1 - 8 Antiga Overs is 1.5, and BTTS Yes is 1.57. Also BTTS No in Dominica V Panama is 1.75. Panama were fairly solid in the Gold Cup, against much stronger opposition than Dominica. Think I will leave that though as already exposed to Panama in my fourfold. As I said hopefully a few other books will price up some handicaps. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HastGill1 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Highlights of the Haiti 6 US Virgin Islands 0 game here if you are interested.. The standard of the goalkeeping is err..interesting! Couple of good goals in there too. Virgin Islands look total cack..:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexc Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October I love some of these pub teams masquerading as international sides :lol Some good money to be made off 'em. Think Haiti are beggin' to go in my international acca tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Surely its worth backing Chile on a handicap ? I've got a hunch you might be right, but I would like to do some more research before recommending it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October I've got a hunch you might be right' date=' but I would like to do some more research before recommending it.[/quote'] I remember being impressed with Chile at the World Cup last year. Of course, Argentina were also impressive ... Had a look at Chile's away record - they rarely lose by more than one goal - http://www.soccerway.com/teams/chile/chile/ Argentina have a strong home record and comfortably beat a lot of teams - http://www.soccerway.com/teams/argentina/argentina/ On balance, I'm not sure where the value is on this game ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HastGill1 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October St Lucia v Canada These two played each other a month ago in the qualifiers, Canada winning 4-1 at home. Canada are certainly an improving nation, but they do struggle a bit to get goals in general, the coach has been critical of their lack of prowess in front of goal. Simeon Jackson actually plays out on the wing for them which surprises me as I know how good he is in front of goal, apparently he gets knocked about a bit and it suits him to play on the wing where he can show his speed. Ian Hume is likely to continue up front and although Canada are missing a few players in more defensive positions most of the attacking players will be here. St Lucia are obviously no powerhouse of the International stage but due to the poor quality of most of the teams they face they rarely get thumped, they probably should have lost by a couple more in Canada, but from what I have seen of their highlights they have a bit about them and I wouldn't rule out them scoring. The defence has a tendancy to lose concerntration but hopefully they will be able to keep the slip ups to a minimum. They are likely to lose as the price suggests but the prices offer value for me. The match will be played at the national cricket stadium (!) which doubles up as the football stadium and the weather in St Lucia is likely to be 30 degrees plus at the local kick off time of 6pm with humidity of 60%, which isn't that high but in temperatures of 30 degrees is likely to feel much higher. It's reasonably difficult to figure out a probable scoreline given that Canada generally play better quality teams but given that they only won by a goal difference of 3 at home against the same side and 3 again away against Puerto Rico in the last qualifier, I think a line of 5 is too high for the price. If I am to lose this bet Canada will have to record their biggest ever margin of victory in an official game. 1.5 odds are too high for me, I will happily take the risk with bet cover on a 5 goal victory margin. For some reason I couldn't find this bet on the bet365 website, had to go through an odds comparison website..in fact they have taken away all additional markets on this game now having just checked! Sure its temporary, went through odds-comparison.bestbetting for anyone thats interested, sure this will be sorted by the morning though. St Lucia +5AH - bet365 1.5 - 5 points Also taken the 1.9 available on Haiti -2EH with paddypower as suggested by the gentlemen above, I personally don't think you will see this higher than it currently is, maybe 2.0 but I would rather take it now, it's a no brainer really considering US Virgin Islands recent results, they look a terrible side based on the highlights and results. Much rather bet on these games than the European card this week, can't really find anything I want to bet on there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October :lol Don't think I have ever bet on a +5 asian handicap before! Looks a good bet though, all things considered...Canada was the one team I didn't consider for a - handicap due to their general lack of goals. I agree that these games seem to offer much better value than the European ones, not a surprise really when the bookies probably spend about five minutes pricing up the entire coupon. From what I can tell, the -2 (EH) on Haiti @ 1.9 is probably the vague equivalent for getting Sweden -2 against San Marino at that price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Guatemala -2 (EH) @ 2.7 (Paddy Power) This also looks too big, though not as sure a bet as the other one. I watched Guatemala play Grenada in the Gold Cup and it was a very easy win. They have also had big wins in recent years against St. Lucia (6-0), Cuba (4-1) and St. Vincent themselves (4-0), although that was at home. They even beat Nicaragua 5-0 but I'd say that was more of a one-off, with Nicaragua being not such a bad side. All in all Guatemala are a solid Central American side. St. Vincent rarely face oppostion of this quality. They do play a full schedule of games, entering all possible competitions, but they lack experience against the better international sides. They lost 6-2 to Trindad & Tobago, 5-1 to Jamiaca and 4-1 to Cuba though. Almost all of their players play in the domestic league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northwestpunter Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October :lol I agree that these games seem to offer much better value than the European ones' date=' not a surprise really when the bookies probably spend about five minutes pricing up the entire coupon. [/quote'] You're not far off the mark there! The UK Bookmakers will have spent days analysing and carefully pricing up the markets for the Euro 2012 Qualifiers - as they are the matches that they will take nearly all of their bets on this week - unsurprisingly there appears to be no obvious mistakes or value in those matches. As for the coupon above though!! Some Firms will not even bother pricing up those games, and many of the UK Firms who do offer prices, will have made the odd mistake or two! UK and european Firms will not take much money on the games above - and therefore their Odds Compilers will not have spent very much time studying them or pricing them. Good opportunities for us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Regarding Haiti h'cap, Theres a russian bookie http://betsbc.com/ which gives 1,8 on -2 and 2,35 on -2.5 So its probably worth waiting to see if any other bookies came up with the handicaps. Think I'll bite after seeing the highlights Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto_Mike Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October good eye on the handicap against Canada....the national team has no creativity, just absolutely horrendous infront of the goal. Mind you BMO Field is probably a faster pitch to play on then where they will play this weekend. That 4-1 win in Toronto was meh, 2 quick goals, one from each team was pretty wild but things settle. A penalty kick goal and a cheap late goal sealed the deal. Canada will win but -5 is just ridiculous for a mediocore team. The line is not saying Canada is great, but rather, St. Lucia is shit lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Regarding Haiti h'cap' date=' Theres a russian bookie [url']http://betsbc.com/ which gives 1,8 on -2 and 2,35 on -2.5 So its probably worth waiting to see if any other bookies came up with the handicaps. Think I'll bite after seeing the highlights I see Paddy Power have eased Haiti in the match odds to 1.125 now, and so as a result the -2 EH is out from 1.9 to 2.2. Going to wait and see if the other books compilers price this up this morning............. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HastGill1 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October I see Paddy Power have eased Haiti in the match odds to 1.125 now, and so as a result the -2 EH is out from 1.9 to 2.2. Going to wait and see if the other books compilers price this up this morning............. Was ripping my hair out when I read that! Just checked and it's down to 1.83 now so obviously didn't last long. I think 1.9 was a fair price so I'm happy enough..that +5AH on St Lucia has definately disappeared now, bet365 not offering any handicaps on it anymore..maybe something will reappear later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HastGill1 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October On a side note bet365 were also offering 7.2 on under 3 goals in the Canada match last night! Don't think I've ever seen that before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiddo112 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Was ripping my hair out when I read that! Just checked and it's down to 1.83 now so obviously didn't last long. I think 1.9 was a fair price so I'm happy enough..that +5AH on St Lucia has definately disappeared now' date=' bet365 not offering any handicaps on it anymore..maybe something will reappear later.[/quote'] Looks like nobody wants to come out to play on the handicaps, and PP have pulled the Haiti handicap now. The 2.2 didn't last long at all, but I suppose they are ultra-sensitive to moves on these smaller games. Good luck to all on the -2 EH, waited too long myself by the looks of it. Just to confirm my bets for the record: 3 pts Fourfold: Canada, Haiti, Panama & Guatemala @2.06 (Ladbrokes) 1 pt Double: Over 2.5 Curacao V Antiga & BTTS "No" US Virgin Islands V Haiti @3.23 (BWIN) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckotheoirish Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Just as an aside on the Canada match....the Canadians had to train without any goals as the goalposts didn't meet Fifa standards.Some new posts are being welded and it's hoped these will be ready in time for kick off.The match will be played in a cricket ground,the grass is a bit on the long side but the surface is smooth enough....good luck to you all..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Just for the record, Russians now go 1,35 on -2 and 1,50 on -2.5 Haiti :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slizorn Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October :wall Did not manage to get on to the Haiti handicap on time.. Anyone else know a known bookie offering the handicap for that fixture? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOTTI3 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Re: WC 2014 Qualifying > 7-8 October Ecuador - Venezuela = 1H (2.20) Eurobet Preview: Venezuela: absent: Oswaldo Vizcarrondo, Fernando Amorebieta, Gabriel Cichero, Juan Arango Nicolás Fedor and Salomón Rondón. The Ecuador as well as being a good team on his side the hill. This fact will play in Quito, 2850 feet above sea level. The home team has qualified for the last two world championships without ever having lost in Quito. Venezuela is already a team that is weak in this game has many players leaving home for the next home game against Argentina. :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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