Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October

[Alexc]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October Scotland AH -1 @ 1.43 (Betfair) Actually think there's a good chance the Scots will do this -1.5 @ evens or so but there's no point taking the risk when I'm pretty certain they're gonna win. Scots should of beat the Czech's in the last round, but grabbed a good win against Lithuania. Morale will be high after Spains win yesterday, and even without Kenny Miller, should he fail to make it, they still have enough firepower in the likes of Naismith, Goodwillie and Mackail-Smith. Liechtenstein are obviously a poor outfit and I don't think too much should be read in to their last two results, a win and draw against Lithuania, as Lithuania have the sort of mentality where they just don't give a toss at times in games like that. A quick look at Liechtenstein's results provides an insight in to their level: http://www.soccerway.com/teams/liechtenstein/liechtenstein/ Clear Scots victory.

[oriolh]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October

Scotland AH -1 @ 1.43 (Betfair) Actually think there's a good chance the Scots will do this -1.5 @ evens or so but there's no point taking the risk when I'm pretty certain they're gonna win. Scots should of beat the Czech's in the last round, but grabbed a good win against Lithuania. Morale will be high after Spains win yesterday, and even without Kenny Miller, should he fail to make it, they still have enough firepower in the likes of Naismith, Goodwillie and Mackail-Smith. Liechtenstein are obviously a poor outfit and I don't think too much should be read in to their last two results, a win and draw against Lithuania, as Lithuania have the sort of mentality where they just don't give a toss at times in games like that. A quick look at Liechtenstein's results provides an insight in to their level: http://www.soccerway.com/teams/liechtenstein/liechtenstein/ Clear Scots victory.

Yep, but are you looking at all results? Scotland 2 - Liechtenstein 1 With scottish scoring a late winner goal at 90 minutes.

[Alexc]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October

Yep, but are you looking at all results? Scotland 2 - Liechtenstein 1 With scottish scoring a late winner goal at 90 minutes.

Scotland were a mess back then. Right after they put in a tremendous performance against Spain, and although they haven't been spectacular since, there is a definite improvement. You could count on one hand the times Liechtenstein would hold a decent side 'til that late in the game, it was a fluke :ok

[chiqo]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October I count on an over 2.5 goals here between Scotland and Liechtenstein. First leg 2-1, Mario Frick (Top Striker Liechtenstein) is available and Scotland Manager Levein can count on skipper Darren Fletcher as an important player for the away leg. Kenny Miller is doubtful, Snodgras and Brown are out with injuries. But Hutton and Robson are back on track and be available versus Liechtenstein. Missings on the Liechtenstein side: Burgmeier (midfielder, suspension). Scotland need this win to be prepared for the Final on Friday. Czech face the Lithuania on tuesday for their last match. They can come to 13 points, Scotland to 14 if they take the points versus Liechtenstein and Spain. Another Case - Czech lose or share the points on Tuesday. over 2.5 goals looks valuable for me.

[Kiddo112]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October

Andorra V Ireland - Time of 1st Goal after 18th min A very tough card today. But one I might play is in the Andorra V Ireland game. Andorra are poor, don't think anyone will disagree with that. They are however, fairly dogged, especially at home where they are rarely hammered. Their home record so far in this campaign is: L 0-3 v Armenia (ToFG 35 min) L 0-1 v Slovakia (ToFG 21 min) L 0-2 v Macedonia (ToFG 42 min) L 0-2 V Russia (ToFG 14 min) Even away from home, they held out fairly well in their last 2 games: L 0-1 v Macedonia (ToFG 59 min) L 0-1 v Slovakia ToFG 63 min) Trap has named a full strength team for this, with no fewer than 6 of the starting 11 carrying yellow cards, and face the threat of missing next Tuesday's crunch game v Armenia should they be booked. Therefore I do not envisage them flying into every tackle from the off, which should lead to a fairly slow start. In addition, Ireland lack much creativity going forward. Anyone that seen the Slovakia or Russia games recently will understand this. Another factor is the pitch, which is supposed to be very bobbly. Obviously Ireland are not slick passing Spain, however I think it may take a bit of getting used to. In addition, the Andorans have cut the pitch to the smallest dimensions possible in an attempt to keep the space to a minimum. Finally, it is fair to expect a muted atmosphere. The stadium capacity is just 1,100, and I understand just 80 people turned up to a recent fixture. Most Ireland fans expected the game to be in Barcelona, and so have based themselves there. I am not sure how many will make the journey to Andorra, which is about a 3 hr bus ride. William Hill go just 1.4 that the first goal comes in the 16th min or after, so 1.83 with Blue Square on after the 17th min looks good enough to me. Although unlikely, the Blue Square bet also includes 0-0. 2pts Time of First Goal 18th min or after (or 0-0) @1.83 - Blue Square :hope

Bet lost :( Still think it was a good bet, and would bhappy to take it again.

[Kiddo112]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October

Ok so been considering this over the last few days, and a few things have impacted my confidence: - I obviously mis-read the Montenegro situation, and now that they are resting players with a view to a make or break game on Tuesday, I will leave it as there is no enhanced value in England goals from a "must win/nothing to play for" scenario. - German team news could be very important with doubts around Klose & Gomez. - Spain will be rotating players, and no Fabregas or Iniesta I won't be around later to get line-ups etc, so have decided to just play the following with small stakes Russia o1.5 @2.875 Russia o2.5 @7.0 Germany o1.5 @2.0 Germany o2.5 @4.33 Spain o1.5 @2.0 Spain o2.5 @4.33 12 x doubles & 8 trebles with Corals (2 pts total stake) Also, just a single because the price is so good (best elsewhere is 4.33): 1pt Germany o2.5 @5.2 Sporting Bet :hope

Small loss on the doubles & trebles. Gutted that Spain couldn't get a 3rd considering they were 2 up on 23 mins. Played the last 20 or so against 10 men as well :wall Russia were well on top in the first half but couldn't score against Slovakia. Think a goal at that stage could of really opened it up. :\ But Germany brought home the bacon with a 3-1 win, so +3.7 pts here all told :cigar

[sportxtipster]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October Liechetenstein vs Scotland Will see a game that will not have many goals. Scotland had problems with such teams that are defending and here will not be an exception. Scotland scored just once in 2 away games while Liechetenstein is not anymore the team that was to be humiliated. A bet under 2.5 goals is very good in my opinion. under 2.5 goals @ 2.02 with 188bet

[Alexc]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October Scots line-up for tonight (Teamtalk): McGregor, Hutton, Caldwell, Berra, Bardsley, Fletcher, Bannan, Morrison, Adam, Naismith, Mackail-Smith. AH -1 is 1.50 at Bet365 right now. Personally, I'm a little less confident about them winning by two, but hopefully they can nick a second.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October Spain was easy enough winner, going to reinvest my money, let's hope it doesn't go wrong. (3/10) Liechtenstein/Scotland - Under 2.75 @ 1.65 with Pinnacle Two defensive-minded teams, what else? Scotland need the win, but their minds will be on not conceding too, so they should not be able to go berserk early on. And Liechtenstein will not push them at any time, they would be more than happy with a draw or a loss by one goal I guess.

[beer]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October

Scots line-up for tonight (Teamtalk): McGregor, Hutton, Caldwell, Berra, Bardsley, Fletcher, Bannan, Morrison, Adam, Naismith, Mackail-Smith. AH -1 is 1.50 at Bet365 right now. Personally, I'm a little less confident about them winning by two, but hopefully they can nick a second.

Scotland = :puke i followed you with this one and i saw all game , Scotland just dont deserv to be in Euro2012 , better give their place to Armenia or Estonia...

[Alexc]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October

Scotland AH -1 @ 1.43 (Betfair) Actually think there's a good chance the Scots will do this -1.5 @ evens or so but there's no point taking the risk when I'm pretty certain they're gonna win. Scots should of beat the Czech's in the last round, but grabbed a good win against Lithuania. Morale will be high after Spains win yesterday, and even without Kenny Miller, should he fail to make it, they still have enough firepower in the likes of Naismith, Goodwillie and Mackail-Smith. Liechtenstein are obviously a poor outfit and I don't think too much should be read in to their last two results, a win and draw against Lithuania, as Lithuania have the sort of mentality where they just don't give a toss at times in games like that. A quick look at Liechtenstein's results provides an insight in to their level: http://www.soccerway.com/teams/liechtenstein/liechtenstein/ Clear Scots victory.

Scotland = :puke i followed you with this one and i saw all game , Scotland just dont deserv to be in Euro2012 , better give their place to Armenia or Estonia...

If you followed, Beer, why are you :puke? Stake was returned. I actually watched too, and I thought they did OK. Liechtenstein had that one heart-in-mouth effort in the first-half, but couldn't get anywhere near the Scots goal in the second. Three top-class saves from the home stopper only denied this one coming in. Sadly, I can see a relaxed Spain side getting an annoyingly predictable win, probably 3-1 or something. Hopefully Scotland'll make it through though as their fans deserve it :hope

[beer]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October

If you followed, Beer, why are you :puke? Stake was returned. I actually watched too, and I thought they did OK. Liechtenstein had that one heart-in-mouth effort in the first-half, but couldn't get anywhere near the Scots goal in the second. Three top-class saves from the home stopper only denied this one coming in. Sadly, I can see a relaxed Spain side getting an annoyingly predictable win, probably 3-1 or something. Hopefully Scotland'll make it through though as their fans deserve it :hope

but it is just a stake back... :( Scotlands performance agains Liechtenstein was reallly poor and that tells alot about them.

[Alexc]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October

but it is just a stake back... :( Scotlands performance agains Liechtenstein was reallly poor and that tells alot about them.

:lol Better than losing your stake, bro. I thought they did okay. Deserved to win by maybe two or three, and kept Liechtenstein under control. Couldn't do much more really.

[pg_yid]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October

Armenia @ 1.73 (William Hill) I've watched both of these sides play lately and consider Armenia to be a class above Macedonia. The latter side tend to put the emphasis on defence, but Armenia have fared well against defensive sides lately, so I reckon they will have enough quality in attack to break them down. They put 7 goals past Slovakia in two games and also dispatched of Andorra with ease; two sides who put men behind the ball. Armenia need to win to keep up their qualification hopes whereas Macedonia are playing only for pride. Sweden @ 1.62 (Boylesports) Another class and motivation difference. Sweden won the home fixture against Finland 5-0. Finland have also lost to Moldova and are about 50 places below their Scandinavian neighbours in the FIFA world rankings. Croatia 0 @ 2.04 (Ladbrokes) As Greek Expert said I think Greece will struggle when forced to abandon their natural defensive game. They are such a defensive side! In the last World Cup when they needed to go forward against Argentina they looked very weak. Croatia are the superior team and I think they will exploit this. The chances of a draw are high but I would say Croatia are the most likely team to win.

2/3, bit surprised by the Croatia one.

[MPLouis]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October (Re. Scotland's performance against Liechtenstein)

I thought they did okay. Deserved to win by maybe two or three' date=' and kept Lichtenstein under control. Couldn't do much more really.[/quote'] I thought Scotland played well - they dominated the game, didn't really look like conceding, and pressed to score more goals.

[MPLouis]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October Re. games involving teams who 'have to win'

A bet I like to play in this scenario is to take the superior team to get goals, say over 1.5 and over 2.5. The prices are really juicy as they are obviously derived from the inflated match odds. The thinking behind the goals is that if the superior team takes the lead, or the game remains a draw heading into the 2nd half in a "must win" scenario, the opponent gets increasing desperate to score. And as a result they get exposed as the back. Further, should the superior team score again, their opponents begin to realise that their dreams are over and stop playing and may get picked off again. I made very decent money on this on the last day of the English league season. A few examples: Southampton 3-1 Walsall (Southampton already up, Walsall fighting the drop) Southampton o1.5gl @1.67 Southampton o2.5gl @3.3 Peterboro 5 - 0 Dagenham (P'boro in play-offs already, Dagenham fighting relegation) P'boro o1.5gl @1.73 P'boro o2.5gl @3.5 Lincoln 0 - 3 Aldershot (Lincoln fighting relegation, Aldershot mid-table) Don't have the prices for this unfortunately Based on this thinking I came up with the following shortlist, and the prices look very juicy. Other prices that caught my eye were "To Score in Both Halves" : Turkey V Germany Germany SIBH @3.6 Germany o1.5 @2.1 Germany o2.5 @5.0 Slovakia V Russia Russia SIBH @4.5 Russia o1.5 @2.875 Russia o2.5 @7.0 Montenegro V England England SIBH @3.0 England o1.5 @1.91 England o2.5 @4.3 Czech Rep V Spain Spain SIBH @3.0 Spain o1.5 @2.0 Spain o2.5 @4.5 I am wary of Russia as they would be happy with a point. But I think all four teams carry plenty of goal threat, and may look to combine these in some way. Perhaps pick 2 games and do the cross doubles All opinions welcome :ok

In the 'Five Things We Learned From the Weekend' column in today's Racing Post, Mark Langdon writes about games involving teams who have to win. In a short article called 'Must Win does not mean Will Win', he makes that the point that the price on the team which has to win is artificially short. Then he refers to the results of the four teams from the weekend's games who had already qualified - Italy, Spain, Germany and Holland. All had good results, mostly against teams who needed the points far more. It won't always work out this way, but I certainly think it's worth remembering.

[Jase82]

Re: Euro 2012 Qualifiers > 7-8 October

Re. games involving teams who 'have to win' In the 'Five Things We Learned From the Weekend' column in today's Racing Post, Mark Langdon writes about games involving teams who have to win. In a short article called 'Must Win does not mean Will Win', he makes that the point that the price on the team which has to win is artificially short. Then he refers to the results of the four teams from the weekend's games who had already qualified - Italy, Spain, Germany and Holland. All had good results, mostly against teams who needed the points far more. It won't always work out this way, but I certainly think it's worth remembering.

Yup, that's what I've been preaching for years :\