bbotd saturday

[twinny]

0.5 e/w night carnation 15.40 newbury 5/1 william hill sporting lifes pick night carnation has had 8 runs so far and has been in the winners circle on four of those occations,3 times over 5 furlongs tomorrows distance and once in class 1 company,of its other 4 runs one has ended in a second and once in 3rd place,good win chance and a saver on the place :hope

[cc75]

Re: bbotd saturday 5.25 Newbury: Snow Trooper 1pt win @ SP Horse won over 8f here on penultimate start in quite taking fashion coming away well to win by almost three lengths. Didn't run too badly for a way LTO when beaten fro this mark over a mile at Newmarket, however appeared to fade over final furlong so drop to 7f may not be any problem here and looks worth this drop in trip. Pretty open race and think there is every chance this one could go close as still very unexposed and may actually come on for this softer ground too looking at the horses action. Decent chance here IMO.

[fintron]

Re: bbotd saturday 3.20 Ayr The weight trends say REGAL PARADE is too high in the weights but the question I keep asking myself is, how many of these would have got to within half a length of Delegator in the Duke of York Stakes (Group 2) off level weights this season? The other question I keep asking is, how many times can you back a dual Group 1 winner, who has shown current season form in pattern company, in a handicap off a mark of 108. That is what Regal Parade races off here, the handicapper has slashed him around a stone and he looks reasonably weighted. Coupled with the fact he is a CD winner having won this race in 2008 and loves a bit of cut in the ground (indeed, its a luxury he's rarely been affored this season), he looks the clear value pick in the race for me. On ante-post at slightly bigger but for thread purposes, 20/1 Ladbrokes, 1 pt win.

[Monterosso]

Re: bbotd saturday 2:15 Ayr - Valery Borzov - e/w @ 20/1 (WillHill, 5 places) Another exceptionally tough 6f handicap here and no fewer than 27 runners are set to go to post in an attempt to win the £22,000 pot. With plenty of pace being drawn in the low to middle stalls, I think it may pay to side with those racing on the far side - the side which came up trumps in the Bronze Cup yesterday, albeit only by a short-head. The other potential angle to look at is the favouring of prominent racers in yesterdays races, with both of the big-field sprint handicaps being won by horses racing right on the pace and the horses filling up the places doing likewise. That doesn't necessarily mean the same will happen today but it may well occur and it's a handy way of discarding plenty of the runners. Richard Fahey lines up with a total of 7 runners here and trying to read his intentions is impossible. However, he bids to win this race for the third time in five years and I'm backing him to do so with Paul Hanagan's choice - Valery Borzov. The stats aren't on this 7 year old's side, as no horse aged older than 5 has landed the spoils in the past 10 years but many battle-hardened, older animals have filled the places in that time and I'm hopeful that this fellow can buck the trends here. He certainly has the profile of a horse who could run a cracker if on the top of his game and recent efforts suggest he could well be. On his penultimate outing, Valery Borzov broke a losing streak that had stretched well over 2 years when scoring with a bit in hand over the stiff Hamilton track at the end of August (ran around in-front before asserting close home, better than bare result). That was only a C4 contest and this is obviously a lot tougher from effectively an 8lb higher mark with top 3lb claimer Lee Topliss hoping off and Hanagan on board once again. However, he has previously landed big-field handicaps off mark of 92 & 97 (with Dandy Nicholls) when tackling very testing conditions, so a mark of 90 is certainly not beyond his capabilities. This easier track on softer ground will also help and I'm quite sure that he's up to running well past this mark on his day, enough to run into a place at least. Valery Borzov comes here as a much fresher horse than most having only lined out on 4 occasions so far this season. He has run well on all bar his most recent outing and I can forgive that run, as he paid for chasing a crazy 5f pace over 6f at York (ground possibly not ideal also). Paul Hanagan said to Richard Fahey that he rode him all wrong and I'm more than happy to pass over that outing. If building on his penultimate run, there's no doubting that he's up to running a good race and therefore 20/1 looks like a price that's too big. The possible bias towards prominent racers is another plus, as he likes to be up there and can both track the pace, press the pace or make the running. I'd favour him doing the latter as it seems awfully tough for anything to come out of the pack in this ground. The key to the performance of Valery Borzov is soft ground and if it rains even more, this price won't be about for too long. Paul Hanagan picking him ahead of the rest is surely a plus and Fahey has reported that his charge going well at home. The sit in stall 9 should be a grand place to be and he has plenty to suit, more than most 20/1 shots in the field. I'll play small/medium each-way stakes and hopefully he'll go well. My old favourite Cheveton (14/1) is in with a great shout if getting a nice tow into the race from his high draw but I've a feeling the far-side will be favoured and I'll stick to my guns with that. Ginger Ted (33/1) is another who looks capable of getting involved if he's able to make up ground on the leaders from his likely position towards the rear but that's what has put me off backing him. It may just prove impossible to do so and it's too big of a risk, although he is a massive price, so a tiny stakes bet will do no harm. Regardless, hopefully the Fahey/Hanagan partnership will be the one to come up trumps.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: bbotd saturday Typical day really. Win bet 2nd, two each-way bets narrowly out of the frame. 3.05 Newbury - 1pt win Moriarty @ 28/1 (Boyles) I posted this prior to his last run:

8.00 Newmarket - 4pts win Moriarty @ 11/4 (Hills) - BOG This is a bit of a trappy affair, and it might not suit Moriarty, but everything else should, having raced in some unsuitable conditions recently. He had an excellent year in 2010 when winning twice, before only just losing to the useful Dordogne on his return in 2011. He went up in trip in Ireland when chasing home Alexander Pope - finishing well - and that horses 7l defeat to Nathaniel reads very well. Moriarty was visored at Royal Ascot, but didn't enjoy the soft conditions, before racing keen and not getting home over 12f last time out. The return to 10f on good ground should see him go extremely close tonight, and I think his class will tell. I just hope it isn't a farce.

I did fear the contest wouldn't suit him, and it didn't. This horse seems to enjoy cover and coming off a good pace, but had to make his own running in this race. He raced quite awkwardly late on and once he'd been swallowed up by the 1st and 2nd horses, he started to stay on well again before being short of room. Would have been closer. He just doesn't want to be in front for too long I think so reverting back to held-up tactics should see him in much better light today. It's no real negative that Richard Hughes rides Labarinto for Sir Michael Stoute given that one is the market leader and my selection is a 28/1 shot. However, Richard Hannon has his string going well again and I think Moriarty is overpriced now he'll have conditions to suit. The ground would ideally be on the quicker side of good, but it looks like it will be decent ground so long as we don't get rain. The going is currently good to soft (good in places) so if it remains dry, I don't anticipate a problem for this horse. His runs this year have been good, mixed with unsuitable races. He returned to the track as good as ever when a narrow 3rd in a listed event, before chasing home the smart Alexander Pope over in Ireland. That horse since ran 3rd to Nathaniel - obviously very good form. His effort on soft ground with the visor tried can safely be ignored, as can his headstrong run over 12f which he was unlikely to stay anyway. His latest run wasn't terrible under the circumstances and the form has been boosted as the winner, Barbican, followed up in a very valuable race at Ascot. Moriarty runs off 97 today with Sean Levey's 3lb claim making that essentially 94, off which he is undoubtedly well handicapped. So long as the ground doesn't go against him, he'll get the cover and pace to run at in this big field. He certainly looks overpriced and I'm happy to retain the faith so long as the ground isn't too testing.

[markmywords]

Re: bbotd saturday 14:15 Ayr Cheveton - Best runs seem to be in the months of Sept Oct. The claimer has steered this horse to 2 wins out of 4 winning the bronze cup here last year off 85. Running off 87 today but has won off 92 beating Hoof It at Haydock on soft going. After a string of duck eggs last run looked to be a improvement apart from rearing in the stalls. 14/1 looks good enough for me to have a go E/W laddies

[Petersson1984]

Re: bbotd saturday 5:35 Ayr Bollin Greta Win (8,00) Bet365 This 6 year old mare, got close in recent races, whit 3-3-3-3-2. She is a bit down in weight, and that might help her, to the first win since may. Allan gets his 19th race whit her and 11 of the previous races, was either won or placed.

[andyjkmak]

Re: bbotd saturday 3.05 Newbury I like the look of Beaumonts Party here. Has prgessed well and looks a very reliable sort. Seems to handle any ground and has a decent jockey on board for an in form stable. Nice price also and should give a very good account. 1 pt win 11/1 Bet365

[cpo]

Re: bbotd saturday 2.15 Ayr Mirza 1pt win @ 14/1 Bet365 This horse probably found the ground against him last time out when doing well to finish 2nd behind Colonel Mak. The ground today will be much up his street and he should go very well here. The turn of foot he showed at Haydock was very impressive and the race will be run to suit today. He was well backed that day so they obviously knew this horse was handicapped to win. He looked as though his new mark was not beyond him last time out and I am hoping for a big run. Colonel Mak who beat him is near the head of the market for the Gold Cup.

[BillyHills]

Re: bbotd saturday 235 Catterick: Al Furat (15/8 Betfred) Backed this one last week at Mussleburgh when the meeting was abandoned and he seems to have found an even easier opportunity here. He likes this track too which is a bonus and has now proved he stays the trip well. Won with loads in hand at Redcar last time and this looks weaker and should be able to shoulder the 9lb rise in the weights, thought this would be 6/4 ish so the value is there at the moment.

[Stevet1859]

Re: bbotd saturday 3:20 Ayr: Kaldoun Kingdom 1pt win 16/1 Bet365 Kaldoun Kingdom ran in this race last year when he was beaten four and a half lengths by Redford. That day Kaldoun Kingdom was on the wrong side (he may be again) however he is seven pounds lower in the handicap and although he has not run since June he can go well fresh. Last time out in June he looked to retain all his ability when running on over five furlongs when meeting some trouble in running. Off the same mark of 98 here, a decent run looks on the cards.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: bbotd saturday Another for the Gold cup, one of us must get it for sure. The pick for me has been running some real cracking races and in his last 8 starts he's not been out the top 6 home. Today he's sure to love the ground and he'l get the trip, Draw ? Mmmm Ayr can be funny so its an unknown. Wulliehill is paying first 5 home, i took 16/1 a few days ago but am going down for more today, i think even 10/1 or 12/1 would be great value. Ayr 3:20 - EITON RIFLES 0.5 e/w bet 14/1 Hills Yaaaaaaaaa come racing !

[anokazr]

Re: bbotd saturday 2.00 Newbury Al Kazeem 4-1 sporting bet 1pt win Although Green destinys lto was very impressive winning by 8 lengths im still not sure he's worthy favourite. This young colt has hit some really great form recently, twice at this track. I think theres value in 4-1 here.:hope

[punterpete]

Re: bbotd saturday 5.00 Ayr Osteopathic Remedy win @ 8/1 Ladbrokes

[single112]

Re: bbotd saturday cheveton ticks all the right boxes 14/1 coral and labrinto 205 newb looks a cut above these 4/1

[BillyHills]

Re: bbotd saturday

cheveton ticks all the right boxes 14/1 coral and labrinto 205 newb looks a cut above these 4/1

Wrong thread mate, this is a competition thread in which you are welcome to join in, just read the rules in the first post of the BBOTD tables thread. Basically, its only 1 selection per day and we need at least 20 words of decent reasoning to go with it (not including horses name and meeting etc...) :ok

[DM99]

Re: bbotd saturday 4.20 Catterick - Alensgrove (1pt WIN 14/1 Ladbrokes) Weakish maiden race and I'm hoping that this runner can do the deed. This runner has been very hit and miss and is now looking very exposed despite his best efforts clocking commendable speed figures. Alensgrove reacted very positively to the application of first-time cheekpieces four runs ago, and with the first-time blinkers on today (which normally increase performance the most), I'm hoping that all the pieces fall into place.

[jayalexander]

Re: bbotd saturday 5:35 Ayr - Bridle Belle This horses owner has an eye catching 44% (8 in 18) strike rate over the past five years, although unfortunately she also has another couple of runners at the track today, so nailing this one down as my BBOTD may not be the best choice. Fahey also has three runners in this race, albeit for different trainers. However, Bridle Belle is the only course winner and jockey, Lee Topliss won on the filly in a nursery at the same meeting last year and has not ridden her competively since. 4/1 will hill (BOG) - win

[hereforthep]

Re: bbotd saturday 14.35 Catterick Al Furart - 1pt win @ 13/8 Paddy Power Al Furart won well last time out and despite the penalty today he will be very tough to beat he loves the track will handle the trip and should win today with the not so strongest of fields

[Lars]

Re: bbotd saturday 2:55 Newmarket Although Balty Boys is untested on fast ground, I'm pretty hopeful that it'll suit him down to the ground and he can definitely improve on his last two soft ground efforts, the last been fairly respectable over a 6f trip (races over 7f today). Went into the notebook with a convincing victory on his second start in maidens when romping home over 6f. No show at York in a Group 3 over this trip on soft ground (think that'll be the reason, he's out of Cape Cross after all). Last effort over 6f on softish surface better and would have been closer to the winner had he not been inconvenienced in-running. Back to better ground, he should go well. Win @ 9/1 Ladbrokes

[Verisimilitude]

Re: bbotd saturday Turjuman 9.20 Wolverhampton. 0.5 points each way. A bit hit and miss, but I think there's enough pace to this race to see him run to his ability this evening. The trip and surface isn't a problem and the handicapper puts him in off 61 again, so all looks in place for a big effort. Betfred 9/1 (bog)

[Falbrav]

Re: bbotd saturday MAAREK 2.15 Ayr. 0.5 points each way. Not done much wrong to be fair and does like soft ground, which plenty lining up cannot say. The trip's fine and handicapper gives him each way claims off a mark of 89, so with plenty of question marks over most lining up, the big odds do represent good value, irrespective of the end result. 33/1 Bet365 BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: bbotd saturday 3:40 Newbury - Deacon Blues - Back I cannot believe he's odds against here. He's been an absolute revelation this year and is unbeaten in his last 3 races. Drops foam to 5 furlongs here but the sharper trip shouldn't inconvenience as he has an electric turn if foot when required and he should be able to travel into this strongly before swooping late 1pt win @ 7/4 Hills BOG

[jayalexander]

Re: bbotd saturday

3:40 Newbury - Deacon Blues - Back I cannot believe he's odds against here. He's been an absolute revelation this year and is unbeaten in his last 3 races. Drops foam to 5 furlongs here but the sharper trip shouldn't inconvenience as he has an electric turn if foot when required and he should be able to travel into this strongly before swooping late 1pt win @ 7/4 Hills BOG

The reason given for him being a NR last time was bad scope? Not sure whether it might be a long term issue?

[BillyHills]

Re: bbotd saturday All settled except the 9.20 at Wolver. Anymore will be on Sundays table:ok

[wizzkid walter]

Re: bbotd saturday I saw that Jay. Just still thought that connections must have been confident that he was over it to turn him back out relatively quickly. Very impressive too

[zoolander]

Re: bbotd saturday Wolverhampton 8:50 My Mate Jake 12-1 WIN Boyle Sports Previous C&D winner in this grade off 7lbs higher. Been poor lately on turf, various trips and ground conditions but returns here off this low mark and the jockey booking of Callan catches the eye. A bit of a punt on this one and the each way is probably safer but at this price taking the win on is worth the risk.

[stewartd14]

Re: bbotd saturday 8.50 Wolves MIDAS MOMENT Won here as a 2 year old, and hasn't quite managed to recapture that form. However, ran a good 6th here last time in a race that's working out well (all those that finished down the field have been placed next time out). With that race looking strong, I suspect he can get back on the scoresheet tonight. 1 pt win @ 9/2 Bet 365

[kev2oo9]

Re: bbotd saturday 9.20 Wolves - Carnac ew at 25/1 Victor Chandler bog Think trip might be on sharp side as places over distance havent really been close to winner but give it a try here. Has had 18 runs on aw resulting in one win achieved at southwell sand with a further 8 places , 50% place s/r Was competitive few outings ago off 55 at course only btn by a length and a half and races off only 51 today with harleys claim taken into account who has managed 4 winners for mccabe yard out of poss 39 and 8 places.