BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September

[Aidymac]

Simon De Montfort - Kempton 2:15 Versatile horse who has won 5 races from 9 runs, and won a big handicap at Meydan in the process. Did most of its winning in France but although he ran a bit flat last time out at Windsor , he was just behind Dux Scholar and Prince Siegfried and Dux Scholar has won a Listed race and i think my selection has every chance tomorrow and i think it is nailed on for a place so is a reasonable price. Harris Tweed should prove the biggest danger dropping down in trip with stable going well, wont have his stamina as strectched tomorrow. Modun is up in class so might struggle. Myplacelater is a bit hit and miss so hard to know what you will get with that horse. Confident of a place i am. E/W @ 11/2 Boylesports BOG

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September H2.30 Ashbrittle 0.5pt E/W 18/1 SkyBet Well I certainly got the price by posting early yesterday despite the horse not reading the script (16/1 into 3/1f), so hoping for better on this one for Saturdays race. It's a lightly raced 4-y-o who was leading at this distance on its only previous visit to the track over 2 furlongs further. The drop back in trip looks sure to suit and it's been dropped a couple of pounds in the handicap. Indeed unlike a lot of these, it's highest winning mark is only just below its mark for this race which considering that it's lightly raced and open to improvement is a big plus. The horse hasn't raced for a while so I don't know if the trainer has been waiting for this race his cards, but it's certaintly not an 18/1 chance in my book and it won't mind if any rain arrives at the track (it's forecast).

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 2.45 Kempton Layline 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 Bet365 I like the look of Layline here. I think he is a better horse on the all weather and his last two runs look to be great preparation for this race. He returned to the all weather in July when taking a competitive handicap very comfortably off a mark of 90. He then ran at Kempton over 8f and finished down the field in 6th. He was held up at the back that day and was denied a clear run before eventually switching wide and running on well. The jockey wasn’t overly hard on the horse in the final furlong but he still managed to get within 5 lengths of today’s favourite Primaeval. Layline is 9lbs better off with that rival today thanks to his jockeys 3lb claim and must have a big chance. I think he has strong claims of getting involved, effectively running off the same mark than when he won comfortably at Lingfield 2 outings ago. The stable haven’t had any recent winners but their horses have been running well enough. Layline looks to have a nice each way chance in what is a very open race.

[cc75]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 3.00 Haydock: Secret Millionaire 1pt win @ 11/1 Bet365 BOG This horse quite well handicapped on best known form having won from 3lbs higher in the past (this time last year) over this trip. Ground conditions ideal, handicap mark workable, positive jockey booking in Richard Hughes and recent form not too bad at all having ran very close from 1lb lower on penultimate start. Big chance at decent price IMO.

[hereforthep]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 14.50 Stratford Karasenir - 1pt win @ sp Karasenir is the pick of these horses over the hudles and looks good to go one better here over the fences on the second attempt he remains a usefull hurdler and is still the one to beat

[ballyoisin_bomb]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September eachway NAVE haydock 230 saturday 22/1 VC bet mark johnstons inmate produced a better recent run when finally dropping to a suitable mark as a result of a few bad runs of late. a useful enough handicapper he will enjoy the 1mile trip and should be in the frame

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 3:35 Haydock - Dalghar - e/w @ 50/1 (Betfred) I like taking a big-priced animals in the sprints and Dalghar fits the bill here, as he's crazily overpriced at 50/1. He's often his own worst enemy, caused by acting up in the parade ring and this has happened every time he has raced since joining the Andrew Balding stable. However, with the application of a hood being capable of bringing this formerly very useful French-trained 5 year old back to his best, I think he's being completely overlooked here despite having the ability needed to win this contest. Dalghar also has the benefit of the highest draw in stall 16 and this track seems the type of place that could bring out the best in him. It's not long ago that he was sent off as a well-backed 8/1 shot in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot and again, he blew his chance by being coltish and acting the maggot in the parade ring. If he can calm down beforehand and bowl along in front from a perfect draw, I think he's got a chance of causing a shock here and giving David Probert a massive victory to add to his record. He's 50/1 for a reason but they're reasons I'm willing to overlook and take a small each-way punt on him making the frame. He was previously rated 117 and that'd mark him down as the joint-fourth best animal in the race (if he was at his best), so it's not like he's a complete no-hoper if learning how to relax again. Andrew Balding is great at coaxing them back to form and if he can do that here, his animal has a chance. None of the others really interest me and I'd be tempted by Hoof It if he wasn't so short in the betting. Rain would be a welcomed addition for my selection and hopefully it comes - as if it does, and he behaves beforehand - 10/1 would be a realistic representation of his chances. Small each-way bet though, as he's as risky as they come.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 3.45 Ascot - 1pt win Communicator @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) - BOG I posted this prior to his recent York run:

2.30 York - 1.5pts e/w Communicator @ 11/1 (Hills) - BOG I posted this prior to Communicator's run at York back in May: He did indeed win that race, travelling extremely well and staying on strongly. He's shown an obvious liking for the course at York, and I was encouraged by the manner he stayed on close home to forge clear after it looked like he was in a war of attrition for a moment. He managed to pull clear by 1 1/4l over 12f on that occasion, shaping as if he would get even further. He went to Ascot for the King George V Stakes and ran a really good race. The ground was quite testing so for him to run as well as he did was excellent, and also suggested the step up to the distance he contests today will not be a problem. He travelled well like he usually does, before being carried wide into the straight. He was switched to the inside and stayed on to be a 9l 4th to Brown Panther. There were 18 runners and they were really strung out in the end, so to get as close as he did was a fine effort against the winner, and fellow St Leger hopeful Census - who gained revenge on Tom Dascombe's charge recently. Both are rated between 110-120 now and are very much contenders for the Doncaster classic. He's entitled to improve for another step up in trip given he is by a Derby winner, and out of a horse who is a half-sister to a staying horse from the family of a Cesarewitch winner. He's got a fine draw in 9 over the Ebor trip, and has shown he can run with some give in the ground. He runs off the same mark as he did at Royal Ascot so he has every chance of running very well indeed in this competitive affair. Michael Bell's horses are firing on all cylinders at the moment with a phenomenal 41% strike rate in August and Hayley Turner is on board having ridden the horse to victory at the venue two starts ago on her only ride. She's clearly riding well at the moment and this horse represents another big chance for her, and the Michael Bell team.

His price today reflects that run, but if you ignore it (which I am very happy to do), he's no 20/1 shot even in a race this competitive. His run at Ascot behind the Leger hopefuls looks just as good as anything else in this race, and I think it will pay to forgive him his most recent effort - hence a large each-way bet on this one. His run at York was disappointing but he raced very freely for quite a long way in the 1m6f contest which, given his stamina wasn't assured anyway, made it a very tough ask. He simply didn't get home after pulling so hard and the extra 2f just proved too tricky on that occasion. Not saying he won't get it in time, but he can't see it out effectively unless he settles better. This looks more appropriate back down to 1m4f trip over which he's run two great races out of two. He's won one of them and ran the excellent 4th to Brown Panther on the other. The ground will suit him and I think he's got a good chance now. Parlour Games looked to enjoy the stamina test at York, and despite holding obvious chances, might prefer further now, but in all honesty, it's extremely open so it would be pointless going through the main rivals. It's 7/1 bar in places showing how competitive it is, and there's no way my selection should be an outsider in the race. The odds are just quite compact. The fact Martin Lane takes the ride is no concern given Hayley Turner's injury, and Jamie Spencer having a good book of rides at Haydock, and he's a very capable rider anyway.

[punterpete]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 2.00 Haydock King Torus win @ 9/2 >William Hill Shaped as though he needed the run last time out at York on his seasonal bow. It was still a decent run and was running on at thew end. The step up in trip should suit as he is bred to stay a mile and as he should be fitter today and he will take all the beating for the trusted Hannon Hughes combination.

[TGS]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September Haydock 4.40 Goldoni - Each Way 16/1 (Skybet) Has improved with every run to date, including last time in listed company. Would have finished closer that day with a clear run, staying on when beaten by 4l. Has no problems with the trip, ground and if carrying on imrpovement which he has shown to date then this race should be within range in a race which a few have something to prove. 16/1 looks to high this morning.

[wafer]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 3:35 Masamah @ Haydock - Been in great form over the last year and had a bad draw to overcome LTO.Best efforts have all came on good to firm ground and Jamie Spencer takes the ride. 0.5 pt E/W @ 28/1 VCBet

[BKI Punter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 3:35 Haydock Hoof It - 1pt win - 11/2 (William Hill) Missed the break over the sharp 5f last time and was never really in it. Still, made steady progress all the way to the line and finished only two lengths behind the winner. Back to 6f here and has a big chance. If you factor in he was supremely well fancied last time, over 5f, and that 6f is his distance, he looks a big price. Dream Ahead is hard to trust because he's capable of throwing in a stinker. I think the July Cup made him look a lot better than he actually is.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September Haydock 2.30 Zuider Zee win - 8/1 Bet365 VC WH Been backing Zuider Zee all season and today's trip and ground should be ideal for him. He met a very well handicapped horse lto and hopefully today is his day. Decent draw, trainer in form and if he runs to lto form with just a slight improvement, he could be hard to beat.

[Petersson1984]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 14:30 Haydock Shernando 1pt win (10,00) Bet365 Got a great chance to get a hattrick here. The jockey de sousa was on at the last 2 wins and whit he winning mentality he got all season, he will do his best to gross the line first. Going is good to firm, good in places but it might rain later on. That would suite them both well.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 2.45 Kempton Merchant of Medici is back to a more suitable distance and likes this track. Still on a decent mark and done ok sprinting but this mile is ideal and providing there is a decent pace he should go very close. Stable doing very well at the moment and no problems with the draw. 1 Pt win 12/1 Bet365

[DM99]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 4.55 Kempton - Elmfield Giant (1pt WIN 12/1 Will Hill) The last three runs on the AW at this grade have been extremely promising. Faded LTO but prior to that was certainly very competitive. He is the only one in this race who has managed to put together some decent AW efforts back to back. The top 3 in the market are AW debutantes and the 4th fav won his AW maiden by a hd, so there is no inspiring AW form at the head of the market. He certainly doesn't deserve to be the outsider in this race.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 430 Stratford: Fujin Dancer (6/1 SJ, Sky) Backed this one last week at Cartmel when trying a longer trip, clearly didnt suit and the ground was sticky also. Today back on a sharp track and on better going should see him back in the thick of it. Fancy they might punt this one later on?

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 0.5e/w doncaster rovers 80/1 stan james 15.35 haydock i cant ignore the price of doncaster rovers in this quality 16 runner field,the price would suggest doncaster rovers will be out of its depth here but i am sticking my 50p e/w on at these odds,doncaster rovers was a beaten fav last time out and is a course and distance winner,with 28 runs todate(24 of them in class 1 company) doncaster rovers has won 5 times(3 class 1 races) 4 seconds and 5 thirds thats a fifty percent place record,could finish well at the back but with these silly odds im on it

[smashers]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September Haydock 2.30 Ile de re win 9/1 Bluesq This horse met all sorts of trouble lto when running in a better race than this. He still stayed on for fourth that day and surely would have been much closer with a clear run and without being hampered. He won cosily at Ascot over 2 miles before that, is only 3lbs higher than for that win and seems in good heart at the moment. With the champion jockey on board there has to be less chance of a hard luck story today :D

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September Loyalty - Kem 2.45 (0.5ew BET365 25-1) Polytrack specialist whose form on that surface reads 41223132 (the last two of those runs were over CD in June). Has form with other runners, including beating Merchant Of Medici into third on June 29, and finishing 1.5 lengths third behind Shamir the weak before. Given that he was arguably unlucky on both of those runs and those two rivals are around 11-1 and 14-1, 25-1 for the selection seems much too big, and if they all go to post then it's four places for the each-way.

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September

Loyalty - Kem 2.45 (0.5ew BET365 25-1) Polytrack specialist whose form on that surface reads 41223132 (the last two of those runs were over CD in June). Has form with other runners, including beating Merchant Of Medici into third on June 29, and finishing 1.5 lengths third behind Shamir the weak before. Given that he was arguably unlucky on both of those runs and those two rivals are around 11-1 and 14-1, 25-1 for the selection seems much too big, and if they all go to post then it's four places for the each-way.

Forgot to mention, well drawn as well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 3:15 Ascot: Gramercy 1pt win 8/1 Bet365 On pedigree it looks as though Gramercy should be better over seven rather than six, although so far he has not shown that on the track. As a four year old he is lightly raced and there is plenty of scope to put the record straight. Gramercy's last run behind Deacon Blues, the ante post favourite for today's Group One before being ruled out, looks very respectable form. He has winning form at the track and the better going than the Royal meeting could well count in Gramercy's favour. Its debatable whether the lay off since mid summer is a positive or a negative with a sprinter, however he looks worth an interest against largerly exposed rivals.

[kev2oo9]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 4.20 ascot - Fanrouge ew 10/1 Corals Has won 3/6 starts , albeit only at bath , and won well under a penalty and has now been given a mark of 81. has won over 5f and 6f so no worries there and ground conditions suitable also. Saunders 2/3 In nurserys this year and other came 3rd and yards 2yo generally improve when switched to nurserys.

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 2:30 Haydock - Activate Won his 3yo at this meeting in 2010 and is Bell's only runner at Haydock today. Spencer takes the ride and is carrying 1lb less than their win here on PL raceday, in May. Two wins in three at Haydock and should have no problem with the ground. 10/1 bet 365 (bog) win

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 3.50 Kemp - Susan Stroman - win at 3/1 BOG bet365 Think I'll take on the odds on fave here - All My Heart won by 20 lengths last time, but that was at Southwell and he had an uncontested lead in a small field and the victory probably flattered him. Has run poorly twice at Kempton and has never posted a decent speed fig My selection is a CD winner and another front runner who could well harangue the fave up front. She's got better speed figs and more stamina and has shown an ability to quicken, whereas the fave looks a bit of a one paced plodder. ( On speed figs I've got Quiz Mistress top rated and she's 18/1......I'll feel a right mug if she wins !)

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September IRIS'S FLYER 3.25 Stratford. 0.5 points each way. Up in the weights without winning, but that's not to say she cannot win this race. Would be open to finding a bit of improvement too, and with the trip and ground fine and the race looking sure to be run to suit, she can go close. 5/1 Victor Chandler BOG

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 6:45 Leopardstown - So You Think - Back Looked a superstar in the making when brought across to the UK and Ireland by O'Brien and son his first 2 starts. Went into Royal Ascot as many people's banker of the week but was turned over, finishing 2nd to Rewilding. O'Brirn admitted he was undercooked and brought him back in style when winning easily lto. He has seemingly been found a great opportunity to follow up here and his price is fair based on the chance he has here 2pts win @ 3/10 Hills BOG

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September Christmas Carnival 3.30 Thirsk. 0.5 points each way. Well in on old form and last time he showed signs that he's coming back to something like that old form. If he does, then this race is there for the taking. The trip and ground's fine and there's enough about the race to suggest he can run his own race. Should be bang there at the end. 6/1 Victor Chandler (bog)

[Lars]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 17:25 Kempton TAX BREAK showed less of his quirks last time going this way round here at Kempton ten days ago, being set an impossible task setting too good a pace. Although front-running may be his forte, it set the race up perfectly for the hold-up horses. That was over a mile and perhaps it's a little far for him anyway. 7f here ought to suit, especially as he looks more straightforward this way round. Lot stronger in the market this time around too and should play a hand in the finish here. Good draw helpful. EW @ 16/1 Betfred (bog)

[bowles10]

Re: BBOTD Saturday 3rd of September 5.15 Musselburgh UNKNOWN REBEL 7/1 Bet365 On a hat trick now and going for its 5th win this season. Steps up in trip again by another 2f and Julie Burke gets on well with the horse. Should go close against these older rivals. 5.05 Thirsk RYEDALE DANCER 6/1 Bet365 Horse has ran here last 3 runs 1st, 3rd and 4th. Was possibly unlucky LTO when caught on the softer surface. Is 3lb higher than its CD win but could still be open to improvement 0.25pts EW double