Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread :puke

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 2.35 Doncaster Joe Packet 2pts e/w @ 14/1 Ladbrokes This horse has returned from a little break in great form. Was a little unlucky last time out not to win a good handicap at Bath as he stumbled at the start. He runs off the same mark today and everything looks in his favour. His stable are in great form at the moment and I think he has a big chance. He is only a 4 year old so there may still be plenty of improvement to come.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.10 Doncaster Census 2.5pts e/w @ 6/1 Ladbrokes I don't really see this horse finishing out of the frame but I am not brave enough to go for the straight win after today. He is improving at a rate of knot's and can turn the tables on Masked Marvel here. He has already reversed form with Brown Panther and I expect him to confirm his superiority here. The biggest danger however may come from Sea Moon who romped home at York but I have my doubts over that form as the ground at York produced some dodgy results. I think Census here is nailed on to finish in the first 3 but I do expect him to win this.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Woeful couple of days... will update tonight. 1.55 Goodwood Hawridge King 0.5pt e/w @ 20/1 Bet365 This horse finished behind a couple of these last time out but I am hoping an extra couple of furlongs and the application of blinkers today may help him out. It is possible that this trip on soft ground may just stretch him but he is on a winnable mark now and has been given every chance by the handicapper. The stable are in decent form at the moment and hopefully he will run a nice race.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 5.40 Kempton Addikt 1pt e/w @ 10/1 William Hill I like the look of Addikt here. He was in good form for this stable earlier this season when returning from a break but his form has dipped a little on his last 2 runs. It is possible a return to Kempton may bring about a better performance today as he won twice over 10f at this course earlier in the year. If anything an extra furlong here should suit as he has stayed on well on both occasions well into the final furlong. The stable have had a recent winner on the flat and David Kenny gets on well with the horse.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Lol this doesn't make pretty reading. Had probably my worst few days ever recently. Census and Kanaf hurt big time but we will bounce back... hopefully. I am pretty sure this is right but if it isn't then feel free to correct me. Different strategy starting from tomorrow! Going to try and turn this around :unsure Starting Bank - 100pts Bets - 37 Wins - 2 Placed - 2 Staked - 87pts Returned - 12.85pts Bank - 25.85

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 4.30 Haydock King Zeal 2pts win @ 7/1 Bet365 King Zeal can hopefully bounce back to form here at a track he clearly loves. His form figures at Haydock read 1-2-1-7-3 with the 7th place coming this year when returning from a break. It is no surprise that this horses best performance this year came at this track but over an extra 2f which King Zeal found too far. Stepped back to 10f on soft ground look to be ideal conditions for this horse. He gets on well James Rodgers as all 4 career wins have come under him and the jockey is in good form at the moment. King Zeal's last 3 wins have come in Apprentice Handicaps which is what this race is. He must have a big chance of going very close off a mark of which definitely isn't beyond him .

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread mate like with all things,they go pearshaped when you post them..you know that you can do this otherwise you wouldnt have started this..Increase your bank to 500 and keep going,your still putting the work in and will be rewarded eventually:cow..

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 2.40 Yarmouth Position 1pt e/w @ 13/2 William Hill I have had a look into why this horse ran so poorly last time out at Newcastle but they couldn't offer any explanation. They ordered the horse to be tested but I am not sure what happened after that. I am going to put it down to the ground at Newcastle that day, and hopefully we will see a different animal today. This horse was sent off 6/5 favourite that day and was beaten 24 lengths. Theres no way this was the horses true running. This quicker ground may see him in a better light and he is well bred. Seb Sanders is top jockey at Yarmouth and Cheveley Park are the top owners so hopefully they can team up with another winner here. Add to that the stable are in cracking form then this horse looks to have a great chance of bouncing back from a disappointing effort in desperate ground at Newcastle.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 4.10 Listowel Lenabane 1 pt win @ 12/1 Bet365 Another one for this race. I think much was thought of this horse once sent chasing after finishing up close behind the likes of Pandorama and Weapons Amnesty over 3miles at Leapoardstown in December 2009 but he hasn't really gone on from that. He has been highly tried since that run in grade 1 and grade 2 level and to be fair to him hasn't run too badly in that company. His form tailed off towards the end of last year but he has returned this year in better form and looks to have been trained with this race in mind. Last time out at Galway he finished a close 2nd to Ballyholland but I think the further trip here should suit him. It will be a true test in the conditions and Lenabane has yet to prove he stays this far but I will take the chance as he hasn't had that many chances over 3miles.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

I backed it yesterday before I got the info but thought I would add some more today. My mate has been getting very good info recently... Got Humidor on Tuesday when it was supposed to run. They basically said it would win next time out' date=' and it got taken out on Tues and ran at Donny on Weds and won at 14/1. They expect Kanaf to win and he also gave me Cape of Good Grace for Listowel On Wednesday... said a lot of big hitters are getting involved with that one. So there's one to watch out for next week[/quote'] Can't let this horse run without having a little interest on him. 3.00 Listowel Cape Of Good Grace 1pt win @ 7/1 Ladbrokes Looks highly progressive stepped up to 1m 4f but ground is against him today. Will be interesting to see how he deals with it. There has been good money for him this morning.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 5.10 Sandown Shooting Line 3pts win @ 5/1 Bet365 Expected this horse to be shorted than 5/1 so I am pretty happy with that price. This horse ran 2 respectable races in maiden company last year finishing 8 lengths behind Masked Marvel on début and then finishing 3 lengths behind Primevere at Kempton who is highly thought of by connections. On his first start this year Shooting Line won comfortably at Windsor before disappointing at Kempton over a mile. That day he got outpaced but today he gets a step up in trip which on breeding should suit him more. I expect we might see a different animal to the one that finished 5th at Kempton 2 weeks ago. The only doubt for me is the form of the stable but Shooting Line should run much better here today at a track that should suit and over a more suitable distance.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 4.30 Pontefract Tillietudlem 2pts win @ 10/1 Ladbrokes Best to forgive this horses last run where he was well beaten by Patella. He raced up with the pace that day which must have been pretty strong as the first 5 places were filled with horses held up in mid-division or further back. He is well handicapped on past form and can definitely go close of this mark of 61. I don't see there being much between my selection and Patella today. He is proven at this trip which can't be said for a few of these and I give him a good chance here of getting involved.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

4.50 Doncaster Levitate 1pt e/w @ 16/1 William Hill This horse has recently switched stables from Sir Michael Stoute to Alan Maccabe and looks a horse reborn! This horse won on its first start for his new stable at Leicester over 6f in first time cheekpieces. He looked outpaced at one point before eventually running on strongly and winning comfortably. Last time out at Newmarket he again looked outpaced, but stuck in behind a wall of horses he had to switch very wide and ran on strongly. This run to me suggested he could very easily get competitive here and the step up to 7f will suit. The ground will not be a problem and although he is out of the handicap, I think he will run a good race. He is running off 85 today but I think he could go on to be considerably better than his current mark.

3.55 Ayr Levitate 1pt e/w @ 33/1 Bet365 Going to give this one another chance returned to 6f here today in the Bronze Cup. Much bigger price today as he was very disappointing last time out. Every chance if getting a strong pace to run at and if he is back on song.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 2.15 Ayr Mirza 4.85pts win @ 14/1 Bet365 This horse probably found the ground against him last time out when doing well to finish 2nd behind Colonel Mak. The ground today will be much up his street and he should go very well here. The turn of foot he showed at Haydock was very impressive and the race will be run to suit today. He was well backed that day so they obviously knew this horse was handicapped to win. He looked as though his new mark was not beyond him last time out and I am hoping for a big run. Colonel Mak who beat him is near the head of the market for the Gold Cup.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.30 Newmarket French Hollow 5pts win @ 6/1 Bet365 I did originally fancy the Gosden horse for this race but now that one has come out, I think French Hollow has a great chance. The horse is in the form of his life at the moment and has only been raised 4lbs for a comfortable success last time out. He loves quick ground and will have no trouble with the longer trip here.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.20 Ayr High Standing 1pt e/w @ 22/1 Bet365 Looks well handicapped on past form if able to recapture his old form. Will have no troubles with the ground and fits plenty of the trends for the race. It is looking as though the middle is the worst place to be drawn but High Standing has a nice low draw where there should be plenty of pace on. Ran a much better race last time out and will hopefully run a nice race.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.05 Newbury Kirthill 3pts win @ 7/1 Bet365 Cumani likes this handicap and he looks to have a great chance with this horse. This horse was unlucky last time out to bump into Dare to Dance but is able to run off the same mark today. Fallon is back on board which is a positive and these connections won this last year with Forte Dei Marmi. I like trainers that go for the same race after winning it the previous year and this horse looks to have as good a chance as any. Another one that is of great interest today is Dangerous Midge!

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread First of all I apologise to all of the mods on here for giving up with the thread and just leaving it but it does get pretty demoralising after so many losers! If they will let me, I would like to start the thread up again as I am hoping to take betting a little more seriously in the new year. I realise the thread is -102pts so the plan is to increase the bank to 350pts and start from there. So I would be on 248pts. Everything is pretty much else the same so if I am allowed to start up again I would be starting from tomorrow.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 2.45 Kempton Heatherbird 2pts win 5/1 Bet365 This definitely looks one of the more interesting races at Kempton today and the early money for Hurricane Hymnbook may well point to a better performance from that horse in this race than what he showed last time out. That horse however looked well held at Lingfield off his new mark and he has never been the same since his 2 year old season. He finished an excellent 2nd to Ibn Khaldun on his 2nd ever start but since returning as a 3 year old he has plummeted down the weights. He was well supported when winning at Lingfield in a weaker contest than this back in November but I just couldn't have him here. This looks a race that could be set up for a closer as there are a few in here that could force a decent pace. Saying that you do get days at Kempton where the horses just don't come back to the field. I think the likes of Classically, Buddy Holly, Choral Festival and Understory could all try and force the pace. Therefore I would be looking at something coming from off the pace. The interesting ones for me are Heatherbird, Opus Maximus and Sakhee's Pearl. Hurricane Spirit often starts slowly and that could be his undoing. He may possibly fair better back at this track though. Opus Maximus is very consistent and finished a good 2nd last time out. He has been very unlucky recently to bump into some well treated animals and I would make him the main danger to the selection. Sakhee's Pearl looked unlucky last time out on his first attempt over this trip and he also rates a big danger. He is poorly drawn though and will need luck in running but if getting the breaks, he should go close. He is 1lb lower than his last winning mark which came at this track and can get involved. That leaves me with the selection Heatherbird. This horse got her first win at the 9th attempt at Lingfield but put up a very taking performance. She travelled into the race beautifully and came there on the bit into the final furlong before being pushed out to win. That race was a pretty poor affair and the time wasn't too great but the 2nd has come out and franked the form, but it was more the manner of the victory which makes Heatherbird an interest here. She put up her best performance back in September where she finished 3rd in a much stronger contest at Sandown finishing behind a couple of rivals rated in the low 80's. She also had a few rivals rated in the 80's in behind her that day and a repeat of that performance would see her go close. On her first attempt on the all weather she appeared to get outpaced before staying on again at Lingfield. That day she finished in behind a few of her rivals today but I fancy her to turn the form around. I think Kempton may well suit better than Lingfield as this horses best performances on turf came when going right handed. The switch to going right handed at Kempton may well bring about some more improvement form the horse on the all weather. The stable have had a recent winner and Eddie Ahern can be relied upon to give this horse a good ride so she looks to have solid claims.

[Mr.Wilson]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

First of all I apologise to all of the mods on here for giving up with the thread and just leaving it but it does get pretty demoralising after so many losers! If they will let me' date=' I would like to start the thread up again as I am hoping to take betting a little more seriously in the new year. I realise the thread is -102pts so the plan is to increase the bank to 350pts and start from there. So I would be on 248pts. Everything is pretty much else the same so if I am allowed to start up again I would be starting from tomorrow.[/quote'] Don't worry about it, we all need a break when things just keep going wrong. This is the best thing you could have done.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

Don't worry about it, we all need a break when things just keep going wrong. This is the best thing you could have done.

Cheers mate. I took a little look at your speed ratings thread. Pretty impressive stuff... another winner today as well. Look forward to seeing any tips you may have for Dundalk. I am still trying to get my head around speed ratings. I think it's just creating the spreadsheet and what variables to take into account. Once I have sussed that out, then hopefully I will be good to go :ok

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread -2pts on the day Wow Heatherbird was very disappointing. Travelled well enough but got stuck on the inside and never really got a run and I don't think the jockey was overly hard on the horse once he knew he stood no chance. I suppose at least I put up the winner as one of the main dangers! 2.25 Wolverhampton Ivory Silk 1pt e/w 16/1 Paddy Power Ivory Silk was in great form earlier in the year winning 3 times, but has been rather inconsistent since. He put up his best performance for a while when finishing a good 2nd over CD a couple of runs ago. He was disappointing last time out but he looks of interest here now he has dropped below his last winning all weather mark, he is tried in first time cheekpieces and Luke Morris has been booked for the ride. Luke Morris rode the horse 3 times in 2010, all of which came in much better contests than this race and he did run well on each occasion. He is poorly drawn today but that won't matter too much given how he likes to be ridden. He is a horse that likes to be held up so he will need a good pace in the race if he is to win today. That looks pretty likely with the likes of Sir Geoffrey, Dasho and Woolfall Sovereign all possibly wanting to race prominently. Ivory Silk is probably a better horse on the all weather with most his career wins coming on an artificial surface. He may just need a little further to be seen to best effect but he has won over 5f at this track in his younger days off a mark of 80. If bouncing back to form there is every chance he could be in the shake up. This does look a very competitive race. Dasho has a great record on the all weather and must be given a chance. Lujeanie is very consistent and Close to the Edge must be given a chance form a handy draw. Lujeanie has never won off a mark this high but does have the scalp of Deacon Blues when defeating that horse last year on the turf. He looks the main danger to Ivory Silk. Ivory Silk is definitely a bit of a risky one but I am willing to take the chance that the cheekpieces may just perk the horse up. If this horse is anywhere near his best and if getting the breaks, he may just go close in this one. I think the handicapper has been kind in dropping this horse 10lbs after just 3 runs on the all weather.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 6.15 Kempton Lockantanks 3pts win 6/1 Bet365 Going for another Luke Morris ridden horse here but he looks to have a great chance. This horse is still very much on the improve and he won a CD race a couple of outings ago very comfortably off a 9lb lower mark but showed last time out that his new mark is not beyond him. Last time out Lockantanks ran a cracker to finished 2nd in a better contest than this one. That day he raced over 7f and probably found things happening a little too quick before staying in the final furlong. Step back up in trip here should suit him and also a return to this track. The winner of that Wolverhampton race Clockmaker ran an excellent race to finish 3rd last time out in a contest full of runners rated in the 100's. If anything he franked the form of Lockantanks and I fully expect him to be in the shake up here. There is plenty of early money around for Reachforthebucks which is very interesting with Fallon booked for the ride. I just can't see him winning. He won a CD race off a 16lb lower mark very easily but was well held on his first run this season. Step back up to a mile will suit and he should strip much fitter here but I still prefer the claims of Lockantanks. Of the rest Tarooq could be a danger but he will find this much tougher than when winning last time out. The Clive Brittain horse could prove to be the main danger dropping in trip after a good win. However Lockantanks looks a good bet here. He is well drawn, clearly in good heart and has the services of Luke Morris.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Ivory Silk was massively disappointing. Well outpaced at the back of the pack and never ever threatened. In hindsight he was a poor selection with plenty of if's and but's about the horse. Lockantanks ran well to win by 2 lengths and was pretty impressive I thought. Always well placed and travelling well, he picked up fast to go onto a comfortable victory. Think there is definitely more to come from this horse. The gamble never looked like being landed and the 2 dangers to the selection finished 2nd and 4th. A rare profitable day but well timed with last minute xmas shopping getting done on Friday! +16pts today :D

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

Ivory Silk was massively disappointing. Well outpaced at the back of the pack and never ever threatened. In hindsight he was a poor selection with plenty of if's and but's about the horse. Lockantanks ran well to win by 2 lengths and was pretty impressive I thought. Always well placed and travelling well, he picked up fast to go onto a comfortable victory. Think there is definitely more to come from this horse. The gamble never looked like being landed and the 2 dangers to the selection finished 2nd and 4th. A rare profitable day but well timed with last minute xmas shopping getting done on Friday! +16pts today :D

Well done fella, its always a nice feeling spending a little win on the GG's :ok

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 1.20 Sedgefield Samson Collonges 1.5pts e/w 8/1 Ladbrokes Ferdy Murphy is a trainer I can never catch right but this horse looks very interesting near the bottom of the handicap here. He has been given a lowly rating of 69 for his first start under rules in a race full of inconsistent types. Add to that the fact they have booked the talented 7lb claimer Lucy Alexander to ride the horse, then this horse has hardly any weight to carry compared to his rivals. He could potentially be thrown in here. The main dangers here look to be the likes of Riskier and Sambelucky. Of these 2 I would say Riskier probably holds the strongest claims after a couple of solid races in defeat. The trainer is in good form and he does well at the track so that one must be feared. Keith Reveley is another trainer in form and Sambelucky won a similar contest last time out at Catterick and holds strong claims as well. Interestingly Ferdy Murphy has a couple of runners in this race and his usual rider Tony Kelly rides his other mount Emperor Charlie. Looking back through his form, he wouldn't appear to have much of a chance here, although step back in trip may help. On riding arrangements you could say that this one is probably the first string of the two but I am happy to go with Samson Collonges. He is definitely one of the more interesting horses in the race.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 2.30 Southwell Boy The Bell 2pts win 7/1 William Hill This looks fiercely competitive with plenty of the runners with chances but I like the claims of BTB who has been pretty consistent recently. He has already won 4 times this year for Brian Ellison with 1 of them wins coming over 6f at this track. His best recent run at the track came for Brian Ellison when finishing a good 2nd over CD to Eastern Hills. That day BTB was rated 71 so is 4lbs lower here. Eastern Hills went on to win again after that race so was well treated on the day. This will be the horses 3rd run for Ollie Pears and he looks to have solid claims stepping back up in trip. Last time out this horse ran in a 6f claimer at this track where he had a few that re-oppose in behind. He could only finish a moderate 3rd that day but looked as though a step up to 7f would suit. Franny Norton rode him that day and gets the ride again today which is a positive as I think he is pretty strong in the saddle. The dangers are endless! Chookie Avon would have a massive chance if handling the surface but I prefer to go with horses that have form at Southwell as it is such a specialist surface. Horatio Carter finished behind the selection last time out but was staying on well over 6f and should be well suited by the step up to 7f. Prince of Vasa was another horse that interested me but he does find it tough to win and Fallon is riding another from the stable which could mean he is the 2nd string. There are other dangers but I am not going to go through them all as I could name half the field. Boy the bell looks to have a solid chance and should at least get involved here. His record at Southwell reads 2-2-3-5-1-2-4-3 so clearly likes the surface. It is possible it may have taken his new trainer a couple of runs to get to the bottom of him and hopefully he will be spot on here. He is handicapped to go close and never runs a bad race here so looks a solid betting proposition here.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread -5pts yesterday. Didn't see any racing as I ended up doing 8am - 9.30pm in the shop! Nightmare and what's even worse I have to go shopping all day today to get my prezzies. Samson Collonges finished well beaten and so did Boy the Bell so no point going on about them too much. Typically BTB put up his worst ever performance at Southwell.... he must have knew I was on. 1.20 Meydan Cairnsmore 1pt e/w 10/1 Ladbrokes Cairsnmore is a horse I remember used to be trained by Mark Johnston over here. He only raced 8 times for that trainer but won twice. His best performance was probably getting beat just over a length into 4th by Sweet Lightning at Chester in a class 2 handicap. On his last start for Mark Johnston, he finished last but returned lame. He is now with A bin Huzaim over in Dubai and returned to racing back in November after over 500 days off the track. He ran pretty well to finish 6 lengths behind Canwinn who won a better event next time up pretty comfortably. Cairnsmore also raced in that race that Canwinn followed up in but was beaten further. That was a better contest than this one and I give him every chance here. It is very possibly he has needed both runs on his return to action and he should be spot on here. He is well drawn on the inside and he has the services of Ahmed Ajtebi who does well at the track. They have opted for the first time blinkers today which may help him. He is drawn in 2 and should be able to get to the front so hopefully the plan will be to blast out and make all and never see another rival. When with Mark Johnston this horse was a front runner so I see no reason why they won't try the same thing. Clasp who is the current joint favourite beat my selection by 2 lengths but that was Cairnsmore's first run for a long time so I am hoping my selection can bridge the gap or even improve past that one. Clasp is half the price of Cairnsmore though. The other one I like the look of here is Shamekh who is unexposed but ran a cracker last time out to finish a good 2nd behind an impressive winner. He should be able to make his presence felt. Cairnsmore however looks a decent each way bet in this race from a good draw. He will find this easier than his last race and the blinkers might just make the difference with this front runner.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 8.30 Dundalk Tribes and Banner 1.5pts e/w 9/2 Ladbrokes I have missed the earlier prices but this one can still be backed at an each way price which I am happy to take. He is a 7 year old but looks to be improving with every run on the all weather. A winner over CD back in September, followed by 2 moderate efforts but his last 2 runs have been pretty good. A couple of runs he did very well to get out from the rail and make his challenge wide, but that day he won so easily and with plenty in hand. He followed that up last time out over an inadaquate mile where he finished well but just couldn't get up. Step back up to 1m4f should bring out the best in him. He clearly gets on well with the young jockey and I don't see this rating being beyond him.