Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Think I will stick to saturdays from now on and forget the midweek stuff (apart from next week ofcourse)... not very good at all!

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Meydan Saturday 10^th March 1.05 Kinglet This is probably one of the easier races on the card to workout. It looks a straight match between Mickdaam and Kinglet, with Kinglet preferred. Kinglet got the better of Mickdaam in the Guineas but both horses were staying on well at the finish. I have read that Mickdaam should be suited more by the step up in trip but I don’t see why Kinglet would not get the extra furlong. He is by Kingmambo who has produced plenty of offspring that get over a mile. There isn’t much stamina on the damn side but the way Kinglet has finished off his 2 career wins over a mile would suggest this distance should be within reach. Counterglow won well last time out but steps up 2f in distance and although there is stamina on the damn side, there isn’t much on the sire’s side so there has to be a doubt over him getting this trip. If he does see the trip out however, then he is a big danger. Burano is forecast to be 5/1 on ATR but I can’t have him here as I fully believe he is better on turf. He has only had 1 run on the Tapeta but he was disappointing. He is maybe worth another chance but he was beaten 9 lengths by Kinglet in the Guineas and I see no reason why he should turn the form around. The only other horse I would consider for this is Noor Zabeel. This is purely down to the form of the trainer but again there has to be a big question over whether he wants this trip. I doubt there will be much between Mickdaam and Kinglet at the finish but I marginally prefer Kinglet. De Kock did win this race last year with Reem but I don’t think Mickdaam is in the same class as that horse. Godolphin remains in cracking form and I reckon their horses will be thereabouts in every race tomorrow. Interestingly Frankie is on Counterglow in this race but Barzalona rode Kinglet in the Guineas so maybe this is why he keeps the ride. 1.40 Hitchens Very competitive 6f sprint here. Tough call for me as I backed Hitchens last time out and I am going to keep the faith. Hitchens gained a deserved group3 win and big pot for his connections last time out, where he just got the better of Kyrpton Factor. There wasn’t much in it when the two met last time out but I feel Hitchens can pull out a little more here. Krypton Factor received the Fallon drive when they met and he almost got back up to beat Hitchens but De Sousa was equally strong to drive out Hitchens. Addictive Dream is chasing a hat-trick but races on the Tapeta for the first time. He has won twice on the all weather in the UK so should handle the surface. This is his first step into group company however and I feel he will find this too hot. Global City has to be respected coming from the Godolphin yard but he found this level too tough at last years festival. I think Kanaf will run a big race now returned to the Tapeta but the biggest threats could come from Iver Bridge Lad and the group 1 winning August Rush. Iver Bridge Lad wasn’t far behind Hitchens when they were both behind Captain Obvious but is 2lbs better off at the weights for this. He has kept his form well and he could go close now returned to this surface. August Rush is a fascinating runner form the Herman Brown stable. He is a group1 winner in South Africa over this distance but has to overcome an absence of 238 days. The stables runners seemed to click into gear last week and he could run a big race if ready to go first time up. Ryan Moore is on board, which is a big positive. Still I am happy to side with Hitchens to double up. This is much tougher than his latest win but he is capable of a big run. His 2-length defeat to Dream Ahead in group 1 company is the best piece of form on offer and De Sousa has had plenty of success over in Dubai already. 2.15 Sole Power This is by far the best 5f sprint we have seen so far at the carnival. There are so many fascinating horses lining up. I backed Mar Adentro last time out but he bombed out and finished last so I am happy to swerve him here. Prohibit comes here after finishing 4^th a couple of weeks ago. He should be spot on now and I would expect a much stronger challenge from him. Nocturnal Affair won a handicap very well last time out and had few of these in behind that day. I wouldn’t expect any of the horses in behind that day to turn the form around. War Artist is a now a 9 year old but can’t be discounted coming from the De Kock yard. He has the ability to go well here and has gone well fresh in the past. The 2 that interest me the most however are Margot Did and Sole Power with preference for the latter. Margot Did improved massively last season, which culminated in her winning the Nunthorpe. She had a good field in behind that day and she must have every chance here if coming here fully fit. Michael Bell unleashes his 2 stable stars in Margot Did and Wigmore Hall tomorrow and I would expect both to be 100% and ready to do themselves justice. Sole Power is the horse I am going to side with in this race. He is group 1 winner himself and is improved massively since his return to action in 2010. He too won the Nunthorpe and then backed that up with a win in the Temple Stakes. He ran an absolute cracker in the Prix De L’Abbaye last year to finish a very close up 3^rd and then disappointed in Hong Kong. That race at Sha Tin came over 6f but Sole Power is an out an out 5f horse. He is well travelled so should have no problems with coming over to Dubai and he has a good record fresh. He has only had 90 days off the track but that should have freshened him up and I would expect a massive run from him here with Johnny Murtagh booked for the ride. 2.50 Musir Theres a few classy horses in here but its hard to oppose Musir. Gitano Hernando needs further than this and I don’t think he will be 100% for this. Rajsaman is a horse I backed last time out but he was very disappointing. I couldn’t really back him here on the Tapeta although he definintely has the talent to win a race like this. Dux Scholar ran well last time out on turf but even his best form would not be enough to win this if Musir runs as expected. The most interesting one for me other than Musir is African Story. He almost got the better of Moonlight Cloud in France last season and has ran 2 good races at the carnival this year. He won cosily over 7f before looking very unlucky last time out over 8f in behind is stablemate. He is proven on the Tapeta and I see him as the main threat to Musir. For me Musir is different class here. In 14 career starts he has only finished out of the places once, which came in the Dubai World Cup last year. She won over this CD 2 runs ago where he beat Master of Hounds by 3 lengths. He has a great record at the carnival and I expect him to win here. The have to go and pick the other half up from the train station but these are my thoughts on the first few races. Will update the bets in the morning and put up my thoughts for the remaining races tomorrow. I am pretty sure I will be siding with Monterosso and Presvis in the last 2 races.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

Imperial Cup - Master of Arts 3pts win 9/2 Ladbrokes The Pipes have a great record in this race in recent years and it is a race they obviously target. Normally they have a couple of runners at least in this race but this year they are relying on Master of Arts to do the business. They have a particularly good record with well-fancied horses in this race and you can pretty much guarantee this horse will run well on Saturday. I expect him to go off favourite on the day so I would think he will be shorter come race time. Since 2002 the Pipes have had 5 winners of this race and all of them went off favourite. The only other Pipe favourite during this period was Seven is My Number and that finished 2nd behind Dave's Dream.

Just bringing this bet to the front

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Kinglet 3pts 9/4 bet365 Hitchens 4pts 7/2 ladbrokes sole power 2pts win William hill Musir 5pts win 11/10 paddy power

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 4.40 Meydan Presvis 3pts win @ 9/1 Ladbrokes Whats another 3 pts on what have been my worst day for a long time! 20pts loss on the day. Absolutely rubbish.... a few 2nds but terrible stuff today. Praying for Presvis to pull me out. He won the Dubai Duty Free last year and comes here with a fitness edge over many of his main rivals. A return to his best form would put him in with a shout but the only worrying thing is that nothing has really come from behind today at Meydan. Presvis will need to do so given how he is ridden. Ryan Moore on board. :hope

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Fair to say this week has been the week from hell! Glad to be putting it behind me and hopefully the only way is up with Cheltenham just around the corner now. What made things worse was the absolute scum Leeds fans at the Boro match today. I am all for a bit of banter at the match but when they start throwing bottles and boiling hot drinks into the crowd... that is simply not on! Rant over and I am going to start writing up my Cheltenham bets for Tuesday now. Already have a couple of bets on the first day but going to have a look at the other races....

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 1.30 Supreme Novices - Trifolium 1.5pts EW @ 14/1 Skybet 5 places I had 2 ante-post bets for this race and both fell by the wayside which was disappointing. Waaheb was one of my biggest ante-post bets for Cheltenham and I am gutted that he hasn't made it to the festival. The other was Simonsig who now goes for the Neptune. I still believe this race would have been better for him but I am sure Nicky Henderson knows better than me! I had a look at this race last week and ended up siding with Trifolium. Since being sent over hurdles this horse has done nothing but improve and looked very impressive last time out when beating Simenon by 9 lengths in grade 2 company. His only disappointing run came 2 runs ago where he was comprehensively beaten by So Young. He didn't settle in that race however, and this was probably the reason for him getting beat. Even still it wasn't the worst performance as he had Oilily 20+ lengths behind and that horse is a decent yardstick. The trainer has stated that he is improving with every run and that he settled much better last time out when beating Simenon. On a line through Joxer, Trifolium would appear to have the measure of most of the other main Irish contenders given how easily he beat him last time out. The trainer of Trifolium has also stated that he believes this horse will be even better on good ground so there could be even more improvement to come from him. He looks a serious horse and he travels powerfully through his races so I think the Supreme will suit him down to the ground. I doubt we have seen the best of him yet and I give him every chance of getting involved in this race. Steps to Freedom’s latest win has taken a few knocks and I would want to take him on at the prices. Midnight Game is another horse who looks short enough in the betting. The most interesting Irish contender other than my selection is Galileo’s Choice. I think he will improve for the better ground and can turn the form around with Sous Les Cieux. As for the home contingent, I like Montbazon and Darlan. Alan King has said his horse is in great form coming into the festival and he looks to have an excellent chance. We probably haven’t seen the best of Darlan yet, and he may he gone close to beating Zarkandar last time out had he not come down. Obviously there are others in the race with chances as this looks one of the most competitive races on the first day. A case could be made for more than 10 of the runners. I am happy to go with Trifolium though. The Irish have an excellent record in this race and I expect my selection to run a biggie.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.50 Taunton Miss Tenacious 2pts win @ 12/1 Bet365 Giving this horse another go. She travelled well last time out but was given a tender ride by Timmy Murphy. She has drifted out today which is a worry but she should improve for the better ground and I wouldn't be very happy if I let her go today and she won.

4.00 Newbury Miss Tenacious 2pts EW @ 12/1 Bet 365 I am going to take on the top 2 in the market here with Miss Tenacious at a decent price. She has to put a disappointing effort on the flat behind her but her last 2 runs over hurdles have come in races won by Swincombe Flame and Pearl Swan. Her latest run over hurdles was particularly impressive given she was conceeding 12lbs to Pearl Swan and was only beaten 8 lengths. The form of that race has been franked by both Pearl Swan and the 2nd horse Ifyouletmefinish who dead heated with Urban De Sivola a couple of weeks ago in a strong looking novice hurdles contest. Velator has also franked the form by winning twice since that race. The form has worked out well and Miss Tenacious looks to have a solid each way chance here. She has looked very consistent since being sent over hurdles with her most disappointing efforts coming when the ground has been softer than ideal and when returning from an absence. Timmy Murphy was on board on her last start over hurdles and he has been booked for the ride today. Will be interesting to see how he rides her as she has been ridden prominently in most of her races but Murphy loves to hold horses up and ride them with plenty of patience. Her only start in a handicap was very disappointing where she was pulled up. That run came after a long absence and on soft ground at Hereford. I think that effort is worth ignoring and she could be well handicapped if you take that defeat to Pearl Swan at face value given she had to conceed nearly a stone to that horse. The top 3 in the betting all look very solid although it may be worth considering that since 2002, no favourite has won this race. Double Handful makes plenty of appeal chasing the hat-trick but this is much tougher than his last 2 races. Charm School goes for the in form Evan Williams and has a great chance if turning up in the same form of his last race where he was narrowly denied by a Pipe horse in this grade at Chepstow. Henry San is short enough for what he has achieved and I don't really see why that one is so much shorter in the betting than my selection. The stable's of both horses may have something to do with that. The only other interesting one is Fairy Rath who is making his handicap debut for the in form Nick Gifford. Miss Tenacious however makes plenty of appeal at the prices with Timmy Murphy booked for the ride.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 1.30 Supreme Novices - Trifolium 1.5pts EW @ 14/1 Skybet 5 places (ante-post) I had 2 ante-post bets for this race and both fell by the wayside which was disappointing. Waaheb was one of my biggest ante-post bets for Cheltenham and I am gutted that he hasn't made it to the festival. The other was Simonsig who now goes for the Neptune. I still believe this race would have been better for him but I am sure Nicky Henderson knows better than me! I had a look at this race last week and ended up siding with Trifolium. Since being sent over hurdles this horse has done nothing but improve and looked very impressive last time out when beating Simenon by 9 lengths in grade 2 company. His only disappointing run came 2 runs ago where he was comprehensively beaten by So Young. He didn't settle in that race however, and this was probably the reason for him getting beat. Even still it wasn't the worst performance as he had Oilily 20+ lengths behind and that horse is a decent yardstick. The trainer has stated that he is improving with every run and that he settled much better last time out when beating Simenon. On a line through Joxer, Trifolium would appear to have the measure of most of the other main Irish contenders given how easily he beat him last time out. The trainer of Trifolium has also stated that he believes this horse will be even better on good ground so there could be even more improvement to come from him. He looks a serious horse and he travels powerfully through his races so I think the Supreme will suit him down to the ground. I doubt we have seen the best of him yet and I give him every chance of getting involved in this race. Steps to Freedom’s latest win has taken a few knocks and I would want to take him on at the prices. Midnight Game is another horse who looks short enough in the betting. The most interesting Irish contender other than my selection is Galileo’s Choice. I think he will improve for the better ground and can turn the form around with Sous Les Cieux. As for the home contingent, I like Montbazon and Darlan. Alan King has said his horse is in great form coming into the festival and he looks to have an excellent chance. We probably haven’t seen the best of Darlan yet, and he may he gone close to beating Zarkandar last time out had he not come down. Obviously there are others in the race with chances as this looks one of the most competitive races on the first day. A case could be made for more than 10 of the runners. I am happy to go with Trifolium though. The Irish have an excellent record in this race and I expect my selection to run a biggie. 2.40 Racing Post Arkle Chase – Al Ferof 2pts win @ 7/1 William Hill (ante-post) It’s hard not to be impressed by Sprinter Sacre but I feel Al Ferof may just out battle him up the hill. Of course Al Ferof will have to be close to SS if he is to get the better of him coming up the hill and that alone is a tough task. SS looks like a machine and jumps so fluently but Al Ferof like SS has improved since being sent over fences. I don’t think there is much to choose between their form over fences and Al Ferof has actually raced against tougher opposition. That being said, it is the manner of SS’s victories that has impressed everyone. He win’s very much on the bridle and clocks very fast times but he is yet to prove what he can find off the bridle. Last year he appeared to not get up the hill, whereas Al Ferof has proven a few times that he relishes coming up the Cheltenham hill. I based my selection in this race purely on the fact that I believe Al is much better suited to this track than SS is. Until SS proves himself here, I am happy to oppose him. There are a couple in here that have no chance whatsoever but both Cue Card and Menorah cannot be dismissed. The Tizzards have already said they are going to make the Arkle a true test so it is very likely that CC will try and make all the running which will suit Al Ferof as he looks a stronger stayer than SS. Menorah has to brush up on his jumping but he too will be a threat if he gets into a good rhythm. It’s a shame that SS has scared off most of the opposition but it still looks a high quality race and all eyes will be on SS to see if he can confirm himself as one the most exciting chasers for a long time. 2.40 JLT Specality Handicap Chase – Fruity O’Rooney 1pt EW @ 20/1 BetVictor I have had a look at previous trends of this race and horses carrying less than 11 stone have won 9 of the last 10. That would rule out Quantitativeeasing, Noland, Hold On Julio, Mon Mome, Magnanimity, Tullamore Dew, Zarrafkat and Our Mick. Looking at the age trend you can discount and 11 year olds + and any 6 year olds which takes out Mossley, Mount Oscar and Runshan. Now looking at finishing in the first 3 last time out and I am only left with 2 which are Fruity O’Rooney and Billy Magern. Fruity O’Rooney fits most of the trends and he has done very well this season. He looks to still be improving and finished a very creditable 3^rd in the SkyBet Chase last time out despite his saddle slipping. He is a tough front runner and could prove tough to catch. The other horse I was left with was Billy Magern but I am happy to just go with the 1 selection for the race so hopefully Fruity O’Rooney can do the business. 4pts Double Hurricane Fly 10/11 PP & Quevega 1/2 PP I do like to have a bet in most races at the festival and this looks the way forward on day one with these 2 favourites. Quevega has an absence to overcome but she looks streets ahead of her opposition here and she should win this comfortably. I don’t see much point in trying to find a big priced placed horse as it looks pretty competitive for the places. Hurricane Fly is an absolute monster and he has looked mightily impressive again this year. It will take some performance to dethrone him and I don’t see anything in this race being up to the task. His job has been made easier with a few contenders coming out but it looks as though Binocular and Zarkandar will pose the biggest threats. Zarkandar is unexposed and we don’t know how good he actually is but he will have to be rather special to beat Hurricane Fly. 5.15 Putney Land Handicap Chase – Carrickboy 2pts win @ 12/1 PP Again looking at the trends for this race which makes things easier in cutting down the field, it looks as though it’s worth concentrating on the horses at the head of the market. The one I like is the Venetia Williams trained Carrickboy who only just got into the race by hacking up at Hereford a couple of weeks ago. Carrickboy has looked a much improved horse since returning to action this season and looks set to go well here off a light weight. He is a horse that has had his problems in the past but finally got off the mark over fences in January this year. He won well that day at Catterick but followed that with a disappointing effort at Ayr where a bad blunder probably cost him the race. He made no mistake next time out at Hereford winning by 9 lengths against some decent opposition. That win got him into this race and with the yard still going well; I reckon Carrickboy can go close in this.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Just a thought on top jockey for the festival. I have been tempted by Andrew Lynch and think he has a few very good rides but not too sure on the rest of them so I reckon its between the top 2. Ruby is pretty short now and I fancy him to shorten up even more after today as he should have at least 2 winners but possibly more. So the plan is to back Barry Gerraghty tonight after day one. He is currently around 3/1 but I fancy him to drift out a bit after day one and he has plenty of very good rides for the rest of the festival so hopefully he will peg Ruby back.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Arghh such a great run from Fruity there. Deserved the win!

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Nothing much to report today. Two nice priced placed horses means I come out with just -0.25pts from 13pts staked. Trifolium ran as expected and was by far the best of the Irish. He did well to get 3rd place but the winner won pretty well in the end. It would have been interesting to see where Al Ferof would have finished had he not made a terrible mistake in the race. Still it was hard not to be impressed by SS. He looks an absolute machine. Fruity O'Rooney gave me my closest win with a gutsy performance from the front. He beat them off one by one from the front but just found one too good in the end. Hurricane Fly was massively disappointing but I thought Ruby gave him a shocker. Quevega won as expected and Carrickboy never got involved in the last. Tomorrow is the biggie as far as I am concerned. I have a max bet on Sizing Europe and I have New Years Eve at 40/1. Going to have a look at the other races now...

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 1.30 Cheltenham Allee Garde 2pts EW @ 13/2 BetVictor Keeping it simple in the first and going for the current 2^nd favourite. AG looks to have a very similar profile to Chicago Grey in the way he has been mixing it in much better company on his last couple of runs. Last year’s winner Chicago Grey came into this race on the back of a decent effort in a grade 1. AG comes here on the back of 2 good efforts in a grade 1 and grade 2 race. He fits most of the trends for the race and has one of the top jockeys on board which for me is a massive positive in a race like this. If you look at the past few years of this race, then the first 3 or 4 home have been ridden by well known amateur riders. It pays to go with experience in a race like this and AG looks set for a big run. The Mullins team had a tough first day but hopefully AG will get day 2 off to a flyer for them. I reckon Alfie Spinner is the biggest danger. 2.05 Cheltenham Cotton Mill 2pts win @ 14/1 Bet365 This looks a cracking race and although the Irish have a good record in recent years, I am siding with the John Ferguson trained Cotton Mill. I backed this horse last time out when he got the better of Ambion Wood in a grade 2 contest. That form has been given a boost recently by Ambion Wood carrying top weight to victory in a grade 3 handicap hurdle at Sandown. Cotton Mill travelled much the best in that race but had to knuckle down in the end to prevail by 1 length. I was impressed by his battling qualities on ground that was probably softer than ideal. Tomorrow the good ground should suit him much more and I think he has the talent to get involved. He has only had 3 runs over hurdles so there is plenty of room for improvement. Dennis O’Regan takes over from Jack Quinlan which is a plus, given his experience. Can’t wait to see how he fares in this race tomorrow and hopefully he will kick-start a good day for the trainer. There are obviously some very classy horses in this race and Cotton Mill will have to improve plenty on his latest run. Simonsig has been hugely impressive so far and he is rightfully the favourite although a little short in my eyes. Monksland and Sous Les Cieux look the main Irish contenders and Make Your Mark has to be feared. 2.40 Cheltenham Bobs Worth 3pts win @ 4/1 BlueSquare Taking a big chance on Bobs Worth here given he was beaten comfortably by Grands Crus at Kempton. I just get the feeling we may say a different horse for this race. Bobs Worth is 3 from 3 at the track albeit over hurdles and it’s probably fare to say his chasing career has been very disappointing so far. He has to improve his jumping if he is going to figure but a return to this track may just perk him up a little. There are plenty of thorough stayers in this race so I think it will be run at a good clip which should suit Bobs Worth. I don’t think he was suited by the slow pace when losing to Invictus last time out. Grands Crus is without doubt the horse to beat in this but there are a few others that could go very well. Both Join Together and First Lieutenant are capable of big runs but I am happy to side with Bobs Worth who has a cracking record at the track. 3.20 Cheltenham Sizing Europe 5pts win @ EVENS William Hill (ante-post) Sizing Europe is my banker of the week and hopefully he will deliver the goods. I think SE is the best 2m chaser around at the moment and Finian’s Rainbow and Big Zeb have it all to do. SE beat Big Zeb very easily last time out and I don’t think he will turn the form around on ground that should suit my selection more than Big Zeb. The main danger looks to be Finian’s Rainbow but he hasn’t shown enough to suggest he can dethrone the champion. 4.00 Cheltenham Star of Angels 1pt EW @ 28/1 Skybet The Pipes have 2 much more fancied runners in the race but I quite like the look of this horse. His Cheltenham record is good with a 5^th in the Triumph in 2008 and a 4^th in this race back in 2009 off a 1lb lower mark. He has only had 4 runs since that race and has had plenty of time away from the track with injury. He returned to action in December but finished a well beaten 18^th of 19 at Sandown. He was given a month to get over that race but followed it with a good win at Wincanton carrying 11-12. That was a much easier contest than this but he had the field well strung out that day. There is every chance he can come on for that run and progress again, but he will have to do exactly that if he is going to get involved in this. Connor O’Farrell takes off a handy 3lbs and I can easily see this horse running better than his current odds would suggest. The obvious horses in this race are his stable-mates Balgarry and Poole Master. Both of them have to be respected but I like the look of Star of Angels at a big price. 5.15 Cheltenham New Years Eve 1pt win 40/1 Boylesports (ante-post) I will be praying for this to win tomorrow but I still have Shot from the Hip’s champion bumper performance fresh in the memory. I remember getting that one at a massive price and he went off a 3/1 favourite on the day, only to finish 20^th! Anything can win these bumpers but I am hopeful of a big run from New Years Eve. He hasn’t beaten too much in his 2 wins but the more I watch his Market Rasen win, the more I fancy his chances. The way he pulled clear of his rivals was hugely impressive. He has a cracking flat pedigree and showed plenty of speed to pull clear. Good ground suits him and Barry Geraghty takes the ride for tomorrow.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Oh dear what a day. One faller, one refused when still going well at the 2nd last and then that fiasco in the champion chase! Thank heavens for Bobs Worth

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Hopefully get time to write these up but I'm on 1.30 cristal bonus 4/1 2.40 medermit 7/1 3.20 Oscar whisky 9/2 All 3 pt singles and a 1pt EW ed treble

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Thought I would update the stats after what I can only describe as the most horrific couple of weeks in terms of punting in my life. Leading up to Cheltenham, I was not in the greatest of form and then Cheltenham came along and completely knocked the stuffing out of me. Almost 20pts lost ante-post and then day 2 came along and put me into a mild depression! A terrible 4 days for me and after it all, I was tempted to hang up my boots. Still need a kick up the backside now and motivation has completely gone. Hopefully it will come back sooner rather than later but right now I am not a happy chappy. Cheltenham can kiss my arse... 2012 Bets - 183 Wins - 28 Placed - 14 Staked - 505.00 Returned - 597.72 Profit - +92.72pts

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Keep your chin up cpo, you've been doing a great job thus far and it's always a pleasure to read, share and discuss about horse racings with you. Bad periods come and go so here's just waiting for your next good pick :)

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Going to ease my way back into the swing of things.... 3.35 Newcastle The Wayward Lord 3pts win @ 10/3 BetVictor I backed a similar type in the thread a few months ago that was making its handicap debut for this stable after a few relatively poor efforts over hurdles. That horse was called Shan Valley but I think this horse has plenty of similarities and he looks to have an excellent chance on his handicap debut. The Wayword Lord showed some decent enough form last year in bumpers but hasn't showed too much in his 4 runs in Novice Hurdle events this year. In all 4 of those races, this horse was sent off at double figure prices and if you read what what was said about the horse after each event, it was "held up in rear" and never made any inroads on the leaders. It is much easier to get a horse a good handicap mark, holding the horse up right out the back, than racing up with the pace. I feel this is what they have been doing with this horse and I would expect a much better performance from him tomorrow. Interestingly enough this will be the first time since his bumper win, that he has encountered good ground. He has shown nothing on soft ground in all runs since that win, and a return to good ground should also bring about a much better performance. He was plenty of weight to carry here, but this is a weak race and I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be well-handicapped. The bookies had him priced up much shorter than his recent runs and there has already been money for him so I reckon this could be another Easterby plot.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

Going to ease my way back into the swing of things.... 3.35 Newcastle The Wayward Lord 3pts win @ 10/3 BetVictor I backed a similar type in the thread a few months ago that was making its handicap debut for this stable after a few relatively poor efforts over hurdles. That horse was called Shan Valley but I think this horse has plenty of similarities and he looks to have an excellent chance on his handicap debut. The Wayword Lord showed some decent enough form last year in bumpers but hasn't showed too much in his 4 runs in Novice Hurdle events this year. In all 4 of those races, this horse was sent off at double figure prices and if you read what what was said about the horse after each event, it was "held up in rear" and never made any inroads on the leaders. It is much easier to get a horse a good handicap mark, holding the horse up right out the back, than racing up with the pace. I feel this is what they have been doing with this horse and I would expect a much better performance from him tomorrow. Interestingly enough this will be the first time since his bumper win, that he has encountered good ground. He has shown nothing on soft ground in all runs since that win, and a return to good ground should also bring about a much better performance. He was plenty of weight to carry here, but this is a weak race and I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to be well-handicapped. The bookies had him priced up much shorter than his recent runs and there has already been money for him so I reckon this could be another Easterby plot.

NR... marvellous!

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.25 Lingfield Addikt 3pts win @ 9/2 Bet365 My other selection is a non-runner so I am going to go for another one of which there has been early money for. This race looks ultra-competitve with many of the runners coming into the race in good form but I think the early money for this horse is interesting as he won on his return to action around this time last year off the same mark. Last year Addikt returned from 179 days off the track to win off a mark of 60 under David Kenny at Kempton over this distance. He was well backed that day into favourite and it looks as though connections are looking for a repeat performance. He isn't the most consistent horse which is a worry and his 4 wins have come in pairs which would suggest they are perfectly capable of readying this horse to win. They have ran this horse in recent races over inadequate trips and at Southwell which clearly didn't suit the horse. His handicap mark has come down very quickly from 71 to 60 which puts him back down to his last winning mark. David Kenny only claims 5lbs now instead of 7lbs but I don't think that makes too much difference. He won going away on his return to action last year and I don't see that extra 2lbs stopping him, if they have him ready. This is the first time since winning at Kempton that this horse can race in a 0-60 handicap and I believe this what they have been waiting for. Michael Scudamore had a nice winner the other day over jumps and he has had a couple of big priced horses on the all weather outrun their odds, so the form of the stable is good. I was initially interested in Diamond Twister who goes for the Lisa Williamson yard. He has the advantage of having Luke Morris on board but he actually steps up in grade here and he may struggle. He did bump into a decent horse at Kempton in Trecase a couple of runs ago but I suspect he may find 1 or 2 too good here. Another one their has been early money for is Russian Storm. He is also potentially interesting but I think the main threat will come from Isdaal and Count Ceprano. Isdaal is actually rated 62 now but incurred his penalty after the deadline for this race which is why he can still race in this. Count Ceprano looks to be getting back to form and is a danger but I like Addikt here.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

3.25 Lingfield Addikt 3pts win @ 9/2 Bet365 My other selection is a non-runner so I am going to go for another one of which there has been early money for. This race looks ultra-competitve with many of the runners coming into the race in good form but I think the early money for this horse is interesting as he won on his return to action around this time last year off the same mark. Last year Addikt returned from 179 days off the track to win off a mark of 60 under David Kenny at Kempton over this distance. He was well backed that day into favourite and it looks as though connections are looking for a repeat performance. He isn't the most consistent horse which is a worry and his 4 wins have come in pairs which would suggest they are perfectly capable of readying this horse to win. They have ran this horse in recent races over inadequate trips and at Southwell which clearly didn't suit the horse. His handicap mark has come down very quickly from 71 to 60 which puts him back down to his last winning mark. David Kenny only claims 5lbs now instead of 7lbs but I don't think that makes too much difference. He won going away on his return to action last year and I don't see that extra 2lbs stopping him, if they have him ready. This is the first time since winning at Kempton that this horse can race in a 0-60 handicap and I believe this what they have been waiting for. Michael Scudamore had a nice winner the other day over jumps and he has had a couple of big priced horses on the all weather outrun their odds, so the form of the stable is good. I was initially interested in Diamond Twister who goes for the Lisa Williamson yard. He has the advantage of having Luke Morris on board but he actually steps up in grade here and he may struggle. He did bump into a decent horse at Kempton in Trecase a couple of runs ago but I suspect he may find 1 or 2 too good here. Another one their has been early money for is Russian Storm. He is also potentially interesting but I think the main threat will come from Isdaal and Count Ceprano. Isdaal is actually rated 62 now but incurred his penalty after the deadline for this race which is why he can still race in this. Count Ceprano looks to be getting back to form and is a danger but I like Addikt here.

Oh Dear this one is NR now... is this God trying to tell me something? All I want to do is put my bloody 3pts on something today! Third time lucky perhaps

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.15 Wetherby Layla's Boy 1.5pts EW @ 33/1 Bet365 The favourite here may well hack up but I think the places are definitely up for grabs. Layla's Boy is a massive price here considering he was sent off joint favourite last time out. He ran very poorly in that race and made several error's but I am hoping a return to a quicker surface and a longer trip will bring about a much improved performance from him. If you look at his run at Doncaster a couple of outings ago, he ran very well to grab 5th in a better race than this one. If you take Corkage out of that race, my selection finished under 4 lengths behind the 2nd horse and was gaining on them at the finish. If the race had been run over todays distance then Layla's Boy may well have ran on for 2nd place. Peedeeque ran in that race and finished just over a length ahead of my selection but was only running on at the one pace and would have been passed by Layla's Boy in another 100yds or so. In today's race Peedeeque is currently 9/2 2nd favourite and Layla's Boy is a massive 33/1. Yes Peedeeque has ran some solid races since that run but I think Layla's Boy is overpriced here on the back of a poor effort at Uttoxeter. John Mackie has his horses in fine fettle at the moment and had another winner yesterday on the flat with Vanilla Rum. This horse is a big risk given his overall profile of no wins from over 26 starts but I think its a risk worth taking in what looks an open race if you take the favourite out. Even the favourite however doesn't look bomb-proof. He is one the stables lesser lights and did run a cracker to get so close to Velator last time out but has to back that up here which he isn't certain to do. That being said, I do expect him to win as that was his handicap debut against Velator and he looks to be well in here. I don't like backing odds on shots however and would much rather take a chance with an outsider here in Layla's Boy. Of the remainder, Dawn Ride looks a threat as he fell last time out when chasing a hat-trick. Winstone carries top weight here and could have a say but I am happy to take my chances with Layla's Boy.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 2.10 Meydan Godolphin Mile (Group 2) (Tapeta 1m) Prediction 1. African Story 2. Sandagiyr 3. Western Aristocrat Bet African Story 5pts win @ 2/1 >Bet365 This first race looks pretty straightforward for me with the favourite looking to have a great chance. African Story should be 3 from 3 over in Dubai this year on this surface. He showed decent form in France last year in group company with his best effort being a head defeat to the very talented Moonlight Cloud. He started off the carnival over 7f and won comfortably beating the consistent Barbecue Eddie in the process. He was then stepped up in trip to 8f in a group 3 contest won by his stablemate Sandagiyr. That was a good race in which the final result does not tell the whole story. African Story was very unlucky in running in that race and would have definitely won if he had got the gap. There were some decent horses in behind that day, most notably Bold Silvano. My selection made no mistake next time up over the same CD and again in group 3 company. It was a very impressive performance from African Story as he won very easily by 4 lengths beating Snaafy and also having the very talented Musir in behind. I still don’t think we have seen the best of this horse and I fully expect him to win in this higher company. It doesn’t look any tougher than the group 3 contests he has been racing in and the only danger for me is the Jeremy Noseda trained Western Aristocrat. He is a grade 1 winner over in America on turf and has the excellent Ryan Moore on board. He returns here from a break but has gone well fresh in the past. He is unproven on the surface but was an easy winner at Kempton last year. I don’t see him having a problem with the surface but he meets a very progressive horse in African Story and I don’t think he will be able to trouble him. African Story gets better and better with every race and he relishes this surface. Godolphin obviously like to win their own race and have won it the last 3 years. They look to have an obvious chance to make it a 4^th consecutive win in the race. 2.45 Meydan Dubai Gold Cup (Group 3) (Turf 2m) Prediction 1. Fox Hunt 2. Opinion Poll 3. Kasbah Bliss Bet Fox Hunt 4pts win @ 7/2 >Bet365 This is another uncompetitive looking race in which the boys in blue should take. The 3^rd favourite in the race is Mikhail Glinka and there has to be a doubt over his stamina for the trip. He has only once raced over this distance, which came over CD last year, but he appeared to not get the trip. He did win last time out but I would be against him here against some proven classy stayers in Fox Hunt and Opinion Poll. The most interesting runner could be the Alan Bailey trained Barbican who steps up to this distance for the first time. He has once raced over 1m6f where he won and looked as though a further step up in trip would not be out of the question for him. He comes here on the back of a very impressive win on the all weather at Kempton and he could pose a threat if getting the distance. Kasbah Bliss has been a class act throughout his career but age may just be catching up with him now. I would have liked to have seen more from him on his return to action but he was well down the field in that race won by Fox Hunt at the beginning of March. Fox Hunt is 2 from 2 at the carnival this year and has looked very impressive in both starts. He beat Opinion Poll last time out but this trip should suit his rival much more. Opinion Poll has already proven himself a horse of the highest quality at staying distances having won 3 times at group 2 level and finished 2^nd to Fame and Glory at group 1 level. Fox Hunt, however only just failed to reel in Opinion Poll at Goodwood when he was with Mark Johnston and I suspect he has improved for the change in stable. He has looked as good as ever in his last two wins and he is progressing nicely for Godolphin. He looks a horse that could be a big threat in staying races this year. I am not surprised that Frankie has chosen to ride Opinion Poll in the race although I did think he would have stuck with Fox Hunt. Silvestre De Sousa gets the ride on Fox Hunt, which isn’t a problem considering how many times he rode the horse for Mark Johnston. I fully expect these two horses to battle it out to the line but I am hopeful Fox Hunt will come out on top. 3.25 Meydan UAE Derby (Group 2) (Tapeta 1m 1f 110y) Prediction 1. Balada Sale 2. Mickdaam 3. Wrote Bets Balada Sale 1pt EW @ 10/1, Mickdaam 1pt win @ 6/1 both >Paddy Power In all 12 renewals of this race, either Godolphin or Mike De Kock has won it so it may prove foolish to oppose them but the one I am going to take a chance with is the Pascal Bary trained Balada Sale. This horse was originally going to be sent to Mike De Kock but the owner had a last minute change of heart and decided to send her to France. She is potentially very smart although it is difficult to determine how good her form is. Saying that she did win the Guineas and Oaks double in Argentina and she actually won the Oaks by 11 lengths. She does have to give weight away to most of her rivals because of those grade 1 wins but she obviously has a touch of class. I would rather take a chance on her than anything else in the race, as it looks very open. Of the Aiden O’Brien horses, I just prefer Wrote with Ryan Moore on board. He ran a cracker to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and won it pretty comfortably in the end. The step up in trip should suit him and he looks a massive threat to anything in the race if taking to the surface. Helmet is the highest rated horse in the race and is a multiple Grade 1 level winner in Australia. His last 3 runs have been very disappointing however and he is one to tread carefully with on his first start in Dubai. Given De Kock’s record in the race, Mickdaam must have a great chance of taking this. He is proven on the surface and improved massively for the step up to this distance last time out. He comfortably had a few of these in behind in that race and I don’t expect any of them to be turning the form around here. Bit of a risky one as we don’t really know how good the form is and although she won the Argentine Oaks by 11 lengths, it is very likely she didn’t beat too much. She has been transferred to a top stable however who are no strangers to big winners in Dubai having won the Dubai World Cup a couple of years ago. This is Pascal Bary’s only runner on World Cup night so fingers crossed it is a winning one. 4.00 Meydan Al Quoz Sprint (Group 1) (Turf 5f) Prediction 1. Sole Power 2. Prohibit 3. Invincible Ash Bet Sole Power 2pts win @ 9/1 >William Hill This looks highly competitive with the current favourite at 8/1. My selection is current 2^nd favourite at 9/1 and I think he holds every chance in this race. I backed him last time out where I felt Murtagh probably thought he had the race won and didn’t ride out as hard as he could and was just nabbed on the line by Invincible Ash. I don’t expect him to make the same mistake again and I fully expect Sole Power to go well here. He travelled so sweetly on his return to action and looked as good as ever. He is a group 1 sprinter and on his day he is as good as any. The European sprinters however do have plenty to find with sprinters from the other side of the World and Joy and Fun is their main representative here. He won last time out over 6f and I think that might be his best trip. He drops back down to 5f here but he has never won over this distance and he may be vulnerable to some 5f specialists such as Sole Power. I wouldn’t be surprised to see much better efforts from both Prohibit and Margot Did in this race but they both have plenty to find with Sole Power. If anything Sole Power should improve again with that run under his belt but the negative in this race is his outside draw. It’s not ideal to be drawn right on the outside of the field but he was drawn pretty wide last time out and still managed to run a cracker. I wouldn’t worry about it as he has Margot Did to give him a good toe into the race as she is drawn outside of him. There does look to be plenty of speed in the race and there are several horses that like to be held up. Sold Power is versatile but he has a great cruising speed, which should take him deep into the race still travelling well. I can’t see Johnny Murtagh making the same mistake this time around and hopefully he can go one better. 4.35 Meydan Dubai Golden Shaheen (Group 1) (Tapeta 6f) Prediction 1. Rocket Man 2. Lucky Nine 3. Krypton Factor Bet Rocket Man 5pts win @ 9/4 >Bet365 This is the easiest race of the meeting for me, as I don’t see anything getting to Rocket Man. He is one of the best sprinters in the world and won this race last year by over 2 lengths. He has the perfect draw in 1 and I see no reason to oppose him. Sepoy is obviously interesting and The Factor would be a fitting winner for Bob Baffert but I think they are all playing for second place. 5.25 Meydan Dubai Duty Free (Group 1) (Turf 1m 1f) Prediction 1. Mutahadee 2. Ambitious Dragon 3. Musir Bet Mutahadee 3pts win @ 6/1 >William Hill This race looks full of quality and it’s hard to pick one out but I am going to go for the Mike De Kock trained Mutahadee. The improvement shown by this horse since switching from Tommy Stack is quite astonishing and I fully expect him to be involved at the finish here. He was unlucky last time out in grade 1 company finishing 3^rd behind his stablemate Master of Hounds in what was a slowly run race. He met trouble in running that day but still managed to finish well. I think he has been trained with this race in mind, as he has had 3 runs over this CD now. He is the current 2^nd favourite and looks to have every chance. Ambitious Dragon is a horse I have backed in the past and he brings the best form from Hong Kong. He holds a few of his rivals on running over there and he is the favourite for this race. He is undoubtedly a classy horse and has the highest rating in this race at 122. He and the other runners from Honk Kong are all unproven outside of Asia and this will show us whether or not they can mix it with horses from Europe and the rest of the World. Presvis is a horse I love, and he did win this race last year but hasn’t looked the same animal since returning to action this year. Wigmore Hall is another from the UK and he too looks to have it all to do. The biggest threat to Mutahadee may well come form his stablemate Musir. I backed this horse last time out where he disappointed in behind African Story but he is much better than what he showed there. Another big danger is Await the Dawn who ran well in the Juddmonte and should be suited by the drop back in distance. Dark Shadow brings some Japanese form to the table but I suspect the Ambitious Dragon form is a little stronger. There are some fancy prices in this race for some classy horses but they all have plenty to prove. Green Destiny was very disappointing on his return to action and Delegator is unproven over this trip. Of the outsiders, City Style is interesting at 25/1 as he finished 2^nd in that race won by Master of Hounds last time out. He may be underestimated in this but I do fancy Mutahadee to reverse the form with him. This looks the first truly world-class race of the night and I can’t wait to see who wins it but I will be siding with Mutahadee. He has made a big impression on me at the festival and I think there is a big race in him. 6.00 Meydan Dubai Sheema Classic (Group 1) (Turf 1m 4f) Prediction 1.St Nicholas Abbey 2. Beaten Up 3. Cirrus Des Aigles Bet St Nicholas Abbey 4pts win @ 3/1 >William Hill This race has one of the smaller fields of the night but is still full of quality. It is no surprise to see mostly European trained horses in the race and I have it between St Nicholas Abbey, Beaten Up and Cirrus Des Aigles. CDA is the interesting one as he is very talented but most of his wins have come over 1m 2f. I still have a doubt over whether this trip will suit him, especially against a couple of stronger stayers. Beaten Up is the new kid on the block and he only made his racecourse debut last year but he has made a huge impression in his 3 runs to date. He has won each race with ease with his best performance coming last time out at Newbury in a group 3 contest. He won that race by over 4 lengths but was going away at the finish and that was his first run over this trip. He looks certain to be involved in the finish here and Johnny Murtagh has stated this is his best chance of a victory on the night. He does however face a massive threat in SNA who is tried and tested over this trip at the highest level. He ran a cracker to win at the Breeders Cup last year under Joseph O’Brien and he looks to have an excellent chance in this. I am surprised he isn’t the favourite for this but I expect him to be too good for Beaten Up. Bold Silvano is the forgotten horse as he was considered De Kock’s main horse for the Dubai World Cup but he has disappointed on both starts since returning to action. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise if he were to put in a much better performance here. Treasure Beach can’t be underestimated either as he is a group 1 winner. He does look the stable’s 2^nd string but it wouldn’t be the first time that the supposed 2^nd string were to upset the 1^st string. The Godolphin horses look to have it all to do and this is a race that they don’t have the best of records in. I am pretty confident the winner will come from CDA, SNA or Beaten Up but I fancy SNA to come out on top. It’s still early days for Beaten Up but this will give connections an idea of where they can go with this horse this season. 6.40 Meydan Dubai World Cup (Group 1) (Tapeta 1m 2 f) Prediction 1. Game on Dude 2. Capponi 3. So You think Bet Game on Dude 3pts win @ 7/1 Ladbrokes, 1pt win Capponi 16/1 Ladbrokes, 1pt win Zazou 12/1 BetVictor Sport has a funny way of throwing up stories and last year we had the Japanese 1,2 in this race after what was a terrible year for the country. This year I believe there is every chance we will get the same with a Bob Baffert trained winner. The trainer is over in Dubai at the moment recovering from open-heart surgery after having a heart attack earlier in the week. There is every chance he may not even get to the race-track to see his horse run but I think he goes there with every chance with Game on Dude. He is only a 5 year old but looks to be improving all the time. He is very consistent and won very easily on his return to action this year. He should have no problem with the surface having run on the dirt over in America. Bob Baffert who has won this race twice in the past rejected an invitation last year to run in the race due to injury but has decided to run this year. The draw for this race isn’t until tomorrow but I am sure connections will be hoping for an inside draw as Game on Dude likes to front run. He went so close in the Breeders Cup Classic but just make up for that in this. The current favourite is So You Think. He looks to have a great chance but has disappointed in his last 3 runs. I couldn’t be with him here at his current price. Smart Falcon brings some high-class Japanese form to the table and has won his last 9 races. He could be anything but looks the pick of the Japanese challenge. Godolphin has a couple of lively outsiders in Monterosso and Capponi. Monterosso ran an unbelievable race in this last year to finish 3^rd but the biggest threat could come form Capponi who bolted up last time out over CD at group 1 level. He has improved with every run this year and is another that like’s to front run so the drawn will be important for him as well. Of the others the Marco Botti trained Planteur must have a chance. His best form has come at around this trip and he is a group 1 winner and has some very notable scalps under his belt. Zazou is another horse worth mentioning but I will be cheering on Game on Dude.

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Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Lincoln - Mull Of Killough 2pts win @ 25/1 Ladbrokes, Man of Action 2pts win @ 16/1 Ladbrokes Wrote this about Mull of Killough on my thread a while back but I have added Man of Action. Just over a month away now till this race but I quite like the look of this horse. He is stand out price with Ladbrokes at 25/1 and I am pretty sure this is his target. He won very nicely in a competitive race on his first start for Jane-Chapple Hyam at Lingfield but he is just as good on the turf. He loves big field handicaps and he did finish 3rd in the 2010 running. New surroundings and new trainer might just freshen him up and he may be able to take one of the big valuable handicaps this year.