Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

[cpo]

Hello all, I have been given the green light to start my own thread own here so thanks for that! The basic point of the thread is to try and make a steady profit throughout the year, covering all horse racing (flat, jumps and all weather). I think what has already been done with other guys on the site, in using a 1-5pts staking system looks the way to go. Also like them, I intend on starting with a 100pts bank. For me the main reason for starting this thread, is to start contributing more to the site and also to help with my betting discipline. In the past I have been guilty of picking poor (not researched properly) selections on here, purely to try and win the BBOTD competition. With this thread, I will put proper research into all of my bets and hopefully will find plenty of winners and make some nice profits. I have been a member of the site since Christmas time and have definitely learnt plenty from the very knowledgeable members on here. I love reading debates, on different betting styles and peoples differing views on the site. Finally a little about me... Well my name is Chris and I am from Middlesbrough. I currently study Chemical Engineering at Teesside University and have 3 years left of my course so you will be stuck with me for at least that amount of time. I am a season ticket holder at Middlesbrough and am hoping for big things from the team this year. I think horse racing has been an interest in the family for a few generations now and I am very much in love with the sport. There's nothing better than a day out with your mates at the races! Anyway's that's enough blabbing on about myself.... Here's to hopefully finding plenty of winners with you guys :cheers

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.50 Salisbury Elbe 0.5pt e/w @ 14/1 PaddyPower Going to give this horse another chance here after a very disappointing effort last time out at Lingfield. To be fair the horse ran freely and pulled for nearly 4 furlongs so it was no surprise the horse had nothing left when asked for an effort. It is interesting they have opted for the hood for this horse to try and concentrate her mind on the job. Hopefully it will do the trick. Add that to the fact that they will probably go a better gallop here and this horse should be able to get herself into a nice rhythm early on like she showed on her first two outings. On her first start on a racecourse she travelled very nicely into the race only to fade away towards the finish and end up 6th. That effort came in one of the hottest maidens this year which has prodcued horses such as Samitar, Gamilati, My Propeller and Regal Realm. On her second start she showed the same powerful cruising speed to take a decent Doncaster maiden and never really had to be asked a serious question. I am hoping her last run was just a blip and they obviously think pretty highly of her as she is group 1 entered. This is obviously a different kettle of fish to what she has raced against so far. Dreamwriter was so impressive on debut and should be in the shake up here. Inetrobil probably brings the best form to the table and has to be respected. The race is full of unexposed types and looks a tricky one to call but I do think Elbe can show her true colours here and get involved.

[Aidymac]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Best of luck Chris! :ok

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 4.25 Salisbury Theladyinquestion 2pts win @ 7/1 PaddyPower The horse I like here is the least exposed of the field. She has obviously had her problems as she was off the track for 686 days but she returned in August with a very impressive performance at Newmarket beating a good field very nicely. She was still travelling nicely at the 2f pole, trying to get a run and eventually was pulled out and picked up very impressively. At the 1f marker she a few lengths last but swooped past the whole field on the outside to take the race quite comfortably. Considering she has been off the track for so long, this was a very nice performance. There is surely more to come from this here and hopefully she will show that today. Plenty of these horses have form that tie in with each other. One of the more interesting ones has to be Golden Delicious who steps back in trip and drops down from listed company. She also has the services of Richard Hughes which is a positive. The other one that is interesting is the Cumani horse, Dubai Queen. Her second in the Sandringham would put her bang there, and the drop to 7f might just help this horse is she does tend to race quite keenly. Al Mayasah is improving with every run and only just found a Cumani horse too good last time out. I am happy to go with Theladyinquestion here who for me looks better than a 81 rated animal. Last time out she defeated a couple of horses rated 90 which would suggest she has the potential to be much better than her current rating. She has been given 3 weeks to recover from her race but I don't think she was given much of a hard time so should be spot on for this. If able to stay injury free, I can see this horse developing into a very good handicapper.

[judge]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread What is going on on the W Hill website? Their new format for horseracing cards are awful! No name of jockey and you can only view one racemeeting at a time!wtf! Whoever changed the old format should be sacked! Its a disgrace for us punters who are used to seeing the next 3 races at all racemeetings at any given time!:( I think theyve made a bad mistake in changing the layout and will now look to other bookies sites to see if its any better.:cry

[judge]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

What is going on on the W Hill website? Their new format for horseracing cards are awful! No name of jockey and you can only view one racemeeting at a time!wtf! Whoever changed the old format should be sacked! Its a disgrace for us punters who are used to seeing the next 3 races at all racemeetings at any given time!:( I think theyve made a bad mistake in changing the layout and will now look to other bookies sites to see if its any better.:cry

Sorry ,im new!think ive posted this "rant" in the wrong section!

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

What is going on on the W Hill website? Their new format for horseracing cards are awful! No name of jockey and you can only view one racemeeting at a time!wtf! Whoever changed the old format should be sacked! Its a disgrace for us punters who are used to seeing the next 3 races at all racemeetings at any given time!:( I think theyve made a bad mistake in changing the layout and will now look to other bookies sites to see if its any better.:cry

I have never used the site so wouldn't be able to comment. I supposed once you have got to grips with a certain site and are familiar with the layout, then it can be frustrating if its changed... especially if like you say it hasn't improved anything

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.15 Salisbury 0.5pt win Biba Diva @ 16/1 Bet365 & 0.5pt win Kaylena @ 20/1 Ladbrokes The favourite in the race may well go on to win this comfortably but he is a ridiculous price in a race with 15 newcomers in it; some from top stables. Much was expected from Firdaws on debut and although, he encountered no luck in running, he was still beaten. Same could happen today in a field of 17. It makes no sense backing the favourite here and I like the 2 Noseda horses. They are well bred, they have top jockeys on board and the stable is absolutely flying. The winner of this race last year was a 33/1 shot and there was a short priced favourite that day. I would much rather have a small interest on top big priced horses than the favourite so fingers crossed I am on the right one!

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Pretty disappointing so far. The 2 maiden horses both finished well beat in the end. Kaylena probably the better performance for me as he was bumped at the start and was always behind. He stayed on steadily without the jockey getting too hard on him. Elbe ran very freely again on the outside of the field. She is going to have to learn to settle better in her races. For a second she looked threatening but faded quite badly. Like Rupert said in his thread, you have to be up with the pace at Sailsbury today which worries about my next selection. Al Mayasah looks the one to be on in that race now as she is drawn in stall one and went from the front last time out. She could prove tough to catch. I still think Theladyinquestion will run a nice... Maybe she can break the trend!

[cc75]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Best of luck with this cpo - fingers crossed for the 4.25 pal :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread All the best mate :hope

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Cheers guys :ok Not the best of starts but got one more for today which I like. 5.45 Clonmel Kastania 3pts win @ 10/3 Betfred I fancied this one even before Scots Gaelic came out but this horse must have an even better chance now that one is a non runner. This horse has been racing pretty freely in recent starts and hasn't been getting home. The drop back to 10f today should be ideal and the Clonmel track which I believe is an uphill start should hopefully help her settle and get her mind on the job. Murtagh is on board which is always a plus but this is pretty competitive but I expect my selection to win. Her conqueror last time out is now out of the race so she must go close.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Humm not the start I was hoping for but tomorrow's another day! -7pts on the day from 5 bets :cry

[BillyHills]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Dont worry Chris, often these threads get the kiss of death once going public, best of luck and stick with it mate:ok

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.10 Haydock La Zamora 1pt e/w @ 14/1 Bet365 Going to get this on now as I don't think the price will last plus I don't think I will have a chance to get it on before the race tomorrow as I am at work. This horse was pretty disappointing at York over 7f in a race won by her stable-mate. It wouldn't surprise me if she was slowly away on purpose and never put into the race but her run before that was visually very impressive. That run came over CD on good ground and she always looked as though she would win if getting the gaps in time. Unfortunately they never came until too late but she finished with a real rattle. With a little more luck in running today and with a fast pace to run at, I suspect we might see a much better performance from the horse than what she showed last time out at York. She is back to her last winning mark which came at Hamilton earlier this year off 82. If showing her form she showed 2 runs ago then she should go close here. There are plenty of opposition but I like the chances of La Zamora today. Interestingly Barron has sent quite a few runners to Haydock... hopefully this is the one he has sent to win!

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 5.10 Haydock Baptist 1pt e/w @ 10/1 Bet365 This race is full of good handicappers but the one I like is one of the least exposed of the field. Baptist was sent off favourite last time out over 8f but disappointed and didn't look like even getting involved until staying on in the final furlong. Two outings ago this horse finished 3rd in a good handicap at Newmarket over 8f behind Albaasil with the after race comments reading "never nearer". I think the extra 2f today will be ideal and we will see a much better performance form the horse. Off a mark of 87, Baptist should be able to get involved and he does look to be steadily improving. He is one of two 3 year old's in the field and both look open to plenty of improvement but coming from the Balding stable and prefer his claims in a very open race. For me the price is good as I believe this horse could turn out to be much better than an 87 rated horse. Taking out Tamaco right at the bottom of the handicap and there are only 3lbs covering the field, so it should be a very competitive affair!

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread I like 2 at Kempton tonight... one in the first race and one in the last. See how this first one gets on before I decide on betting on the 2nd horse. 6.20 Kempton Silenceofthewind 1.5pts e/w @ 11/2 William Hill This horse hasn't had much racing for a 4 year old and has clearly had its problems but last time out at Thirsk, this horse looked the likely winner before just being outstayed in the heavy ground by Glenridding. I backed Rio Cobolo in the race but was very impressed with how Silenceofthwind travelled through the heavy ground. This was far and away the best piece of form this horse shown for a while now so it's a risky one. It's possible that his new trainer has got to the bottom of him and there could be much more to come. He was a decent 2 year old and wasn't beaten far in group 2 company. Since that race he has only had 4 races due to injury. He was entitled to need his comeback run for his new trainer but showed much more sparkle last time out at Thirsk. He has raced on the all weather at Dundalk where he wasn't beaten far so he should handle the track at Kempton. He is up against some very seasoned campaigners however, so it could be very tough to get the better of them. It looks as though the race will be ran at a good gallop as there are a couple of front runners in the race. This may just set it up for something coming from behind. Silenceofthewind is drawn in 7 so should be able to just drop in behind the pace. Martin Harley who is on board tonight rode him last time so he should now how to ride him. I like the way this horse travelled last time as the jockey didn't really have to do much on him. If he travels the same way tonight in this apprentice race, he could make it very easy for his inexperienced rider. Fingers crossed to finally getting a winner!

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread At least we got our money back with that last one. I am going to have a little go in the last now. 9.20 Kempton Beaubrav 1pt e/w @ 28/1 VC Bet Small stakes with this one but there is no way he should be this price. This horse improved rapidly this year on the all weather and has gone from a mark of 67 all the way up to 91. The only slight question mark is that all of these wins have come at Lingfield but he hasn't ran at Kempton this year. His last 2 runs at Lingfield ended with 2 comfortable wins off marks of 85 and 91. I have no doubt he can put up a good performance off this new mark of 94. You can put a line through his turf career as he has never ever won on the flat on the turf. Compare that to 6 wins, two 2nd's and 1 third from 13 races on the all weather. It may just be that this horse prefers it at Lingfield, but I can't let him go at this price. He comes here fit from running on the turf and should put up a good showing. He has comfortably beaten horses rated in the 90's and high 80's at Lingfield this year and should not fear any of this field. The two that I am worried about is Spensley who also goes very well on the all weather and the unexposed Direct Answer. Beaubrav's last run on the all weather came 5 runs ago where he readily disposed of King Olav who is an all weather specialist himself and is rated 91 and Tominator who is rated 92 on the all weather. His recent runs on turf would give him no chance but he is rated 25lbs better on the all weather. I am hoping the return to the all weather will spark him back into life. I am convinced there is even more to come from this horse on the all weather. Hopefully he is not just a Lingfield horse!

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 2.45 Kempton Layline 1pt e/w @ 16/1 Bet365 I like the look of Layline here. I think he is a better horse on the all weather and his last two runs look to be great preparation for this race. He returned to the all weather in July when taking a competitive handicap very comfortably off a mark of 90. He then ran at Kempton over 8f and finished down the field in 6th. He was held up at the back that day and was denied a clear run before eventually switching wide and running on well. The jockey wasn’t overly hard on the horse in the final furlong but he still managed to get within 5 lengths of today’s favourite Primaeval. Layline is 9lbs better off with that rival today thanks to his jockeys 3lb claim and must have a big chance. I think he has strong claims of getting involved, effectively running off the same mark than when he won comfortably at Lingfield 2 outings ago. The stable haven’t had any recent winners but their horses have been running well enough. Layline looks to have a nice each way chance in what is a very open race. 2.00 Haydock First City 2pts e/w @ 4/1 Bet365 First City looks to have a massive chance here, now dropped down to listed level. This horse has been running very consistently this season in much better company and should be able to take this if showing the same kind of form. First City has finished 3rd in group 2 and group 1 company in his last 3 starts and took on the mighty Goldikova in France last time out. The drop down to this company should hopefully see her record a much deserved victory. Rainfall has beaten First City before but I think First City is a much improved animal this year and should be able to turn the tables. It is likely however that Rainfall will have needed the run last time out and should be much sharper here. Same can be said about King Torus but i just prefer the claims of First City. David Simcock is in good form and Spencer takes the ride. This could be the first winner on a good day for the trainer. 3.15 Ascot Pastoral Player 1pt e/w @ 12/1 Bet365 Another very competitive handicap to get stuck into but Pastoral Player looks sure to get involved here after 2 eye catching efforts. His best effort this year came in the Wokingham at Ascot where he finished 3rd but he has kept his form well since then. Last time out at Goodwood he was very poorly placed right at the back of the field and never looked like getting involved. At the same track in the Stewards Cup, he finished a never nearer 6th but made eye catching late headway. He has been dropped a pound since that run and I think the better ground here should suit him more than last time out. Hughie Morrison is in fine form and done me a nice favour with Celestial Girl at Epsom earlier in the week. Hopefully he can get me another nice priced winner with this one.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Good luck with your thread CPO - some excellent write ups and reasoning already

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Humm maybe I am going to go on another losing streak like! La Zamora was terrible the other day. Ridden differently than when nearly getting up over CD a couple of runs ago, and never looked like getting involved. Baptist is just not as good as I thought he is. New trip didn't help. Silenceofthewind ran well and returned me the slightest of profits! Came there with every chance but faded in the final furlong. Beaubrav was poor. Probably just a Lingfield horse. Layline yesterday was very disappointing. He got hampered quite badly at the start of the race and never really recovered from it. Always behind throughout and when asked for an effort, there was nothing left. First City was even more disappointing! Held up at the rear and never looked like getting involved. I think it paid to be up with the pace here so I would probably upgrade the performance of Questioning and look out for that one next time out. Pastoral Player ran the best on the day and nearly snatched a place. Ended up 4th but only stayed on steadily. Didn't look like getting to them and is probably better over a strongly run 6f. -13.85 pts Friday and Saturday... might need a bank top up at this rate!

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.30 York Baby Strange 1pt e/w @ 14/1 Bet365 This horse showed he is in form with a good 3rd last time out at Sandown over 5f. He was slowly away that day and did well to get as close as he did as it's pretty tough to come from behind over 5f at Sandown. A return to 6f here should suit and the horse is a CD winner. Baby Strange ran over CD back in July where he finished a fast finishing 5th behind the well backed favourite Hoof It. This was a great effort and came off a mark of 89. He has been dropped a lb since that run and there is nothing of the calibre of Hoof It in the field. This race will be run to suit with the presence of quite a few front runners and if getting luck in running, I expect Baby Strange to be running on well at the finish.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 4.30 York Malcheek 1pt e/w @ 12/1 Ladbrokes This trainer always has to be respected at the course and his horse here looks to have a good chance of getting involved. Malcheek is rated much higher on the all weather but does have 8 wins on the turf to his name. His last win on turf came in August last year over 7f off a mark of 78. Today he is rated 77 so is running off a mark he can win on but this is very competitive race. Two outings ago he finished well behind the consistent Ginger Ted off a 3lb higher mark and would have every chance here if reproducing that effort.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 4.00 York Boss's Destination 4pts win @ 10/3 StanJames This horse slammed Beat the Shower last time out by 8 lengths on his first attempt at the distance and must have a massive chance of going in again here. He is up 7lbs here but is very much unexposed at the trip and there should be more to come here. Bollin Greta often comes there travelling well but finds it tough to get her head in front and Bow To No One is a horse I have backed all year and will be gutted if he wins. I thought he was coming there to win last time out but found nothing off the bridle. I think the favourite is the one to be on here after a very impressive performance last time out at his first attempt over 2m.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

4.00 York Boss's Destination 4pts win @ 10/3 StanJames This horse slammed Beat the Shower last time out by 8 lengths on his first attempt at the distance and must have a massive chance of going in again here. He is up 7lbs here but is very much unexposed at the trip and there should be more to come here. Bollin Greta often comes there travelling well but finds it tough to get her head in front and Bow To No One is a horse I have backed all year and will be gutted if he wins. I thought he was coming there to win last time out but found nothing off the bridle. I think the favourite is the one to be on here after a very impressive performance last time out at his first attempt over 2m.

Argh feckin typical, as if Bow to No One won :@

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread

4.30 York Malcheek 1pt e/w @ 12/1 Ladbrokes This trainer always has to be respected at the course and his horse here looks to have a good chance of getting involved. Malcheek is rated much higher on the all weather but does have 8 wins on the turf to his name. His last win on turf came in August last year over 7f off a mark of 78. Today he is rated 77 so is running off a mark he can win on but this is very competitive race. Two outings ago he finished well behind the consistent Ginger Ted off a 3lb higher mark and would have every chance here if reproducing that effort.

Non-runner so I am having a little bet on... 6.10 Dundalk Word for Word 2pts win @ 5/1 Paddypower This horse is in good form, great jockey booked, went close last time out and this is a race that won't take much winning. He has already won over CD and looks to have strong claims here.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.00 Newton Abbott He's Our Lad 4pts win @7/2 PaddyPower He's Our Lad looked the likely winner last time out when getting slightly hampered and falling at the last. Today Aidan Coleman takes over from Rachel Green, and I expect this horse to win should he turn up in the same mood as last time out and stay on his feet. He pulled over 30 lengths clear with the eventual winner last time out and should have beaten 127 rated Smart Freddy 2 outings ago. The horse is in form and now with stronger handling in the saddle, I expect him to make amends. I think the price is fair, as this horse could have been rated much higher today had it not been for a bit of bad luck as he would have been coming here after 2 wins. Stable have only sent out 1 runner in the last 14 days which won so hopefully this one will keep up the 100% strike rate.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Don't think I will ever get a winner but I suppose at least you know to avoid anything tipped up in this thread! 7.05 Roscommon Thynetocatcher 2pts win @ 8/1 Bet365 Favourite is far too short, especially on this testing ground. Thynetocatcher is proven on the ground and won a flat race at Gowran Park quite impressively in similar conditions. He comes here after having a break since finishing well down the field in the Aintree bumper. Bit risky as you don't know if he will take to hurdles but I like the fact we know he will handle the heavy ground. Step up in trip here will suit and he should run a solid race.

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread Hummm... thought I was going to get that first winner with the first one today but wasn't to be. It's a good job I didn't go at this with a bigger bank! Things will turn around I am sure but at the moment I suppose it's probably best to stick to small stakes until the luck changes. At least you guys know which horses to avoid like the plague. He's Our Lad travelled well into the race and I thought coming to the last, that I was on the winner but he just outbattled and pipped by a shoulder. Would have been nice to get that elusive winner but tomorro's another day. Thynetocatcher was never asked any questions whatsoever. He was third favourite and was probably first beat. Not to self - Avoid Irish Racing at all costs! Is there an award for worst thread in the history of Punters Lounge threads or worst start to a thread in the history of all threads? Haha surely I am an odd's on favourite for both! Not how I saw this going but it's early days and I think most people are finding the racing tough at the moment. I am going to update my stats which makes pretty horrible reading and is quite embarrassing to be honest but maybe the luck will chance once I have an update! Starting Bank - 100pts Bets - 17 Wins - 0 Placed - 0 Staked - 38pts Returned - 0.15pts Bank - 62.15 :$:$:$:$:$

[cpo]

Re: Cpo's Horse Racing Thread 3.00 Leicester Micky P 1pt e/w @ 8/1 Bet365 This horse was tried in the first time visor last time out at Lingfield and looked that day in need of a step up in trip. Today he gets that at a course in which he recorded 1 of his 2 career victories and must have a chance of running a big race. It is possible the visor will not have the desired effect 2nd time around but Micky P was well backed last time out so I believe this horse is ready to strike. He hails from a yard notorious for their gambles and it will be interesting if the money comes for him tomorrow. Micky P is handicapped to win having won at this course off 57 and then following up off 66 at Epsom. Both those wins came last year but Micky P has been dropped another lb and is now running off 62 which gives him every chance here if able to build on his encouraging run at Lingfield. The Stuart Williams stable are in better form now having had 2 winners in the last couple of weeks from from 9 runners. They landed a massive gamble at Kempton on the 1st of September and his runners do often need following if the money comes. Nothing stands out in the race which is why the favourite is as big as 13/2 in some places, so my selection looks to have as good a chance as any. Handicap debutant Faith and Hope looks certain to improve on what he has shown so far and Fallon has a good strike rate when riding for Fanshawe. I would say he is the main danger along with Sairaam who does like it around here. Micky P should be suited by the step up to 7f here, has won at the course previously, will handle the ground and is 4lbs lower than his last winning mark. Fingers crossed he will do the business :hope