BBOTD 22nd July

[hereforthep]

17.15 Southwell Hi Tide - 1pt win @ sp Hi Tide wil be tough to beat here despite the penalty he won well here last month easing up near the finish showing he should have more than enough in hand to follow up at a similar level and expected to improve further over hurdles to win well

[chris34]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July 3.55 Ascot After several poor days it has certainly dampened my enthusiasm but I was always gonna have a nap bet on Keys when I saw the decs earlier in the week. He was given a potentially cocky ride by Spencer last weekend which in my opinion has caused a slightly excessive rise in the weights, he is due to go up 16lb for his win but today gets away with just a 6lb penalty and obviously should be hard to beat. He was hard on the bridle at the line and it only a guess to how much he could have won by. Admitly that was a poorish class 4 staying event and this is a step up in class but clearly has the ability to be something a little bit special potentially listed/group class. He has already shown a good level of form in bumpers winning a listed event at cheltenham and showed plenty of promise in maidens at inadequate trips and stepped upto 2mile on handicap debut and took the piss, soft ground doesnt look any problem having won on heavy ground in bumpers. Spencer keeps the ride and I would like to see him not give it quite such a cocky ride! Also gonna have a little saver on Dayia, she won a listed race on final start last season in france and ran a good enough race last time out on first run of the season over a trip that probably in the end stretched her, should find this step back in trip a positive and soft ground again no concern as she loves the mud and if she strips fitter and builds on reappearance she has to be considered. 1pt win Keys 5/4 lads

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July

3.55 Ascot After several poor days it has certainly dampened my enthusiasm but I was always gonna have a nap bet on Keys when I saw the decs earlier in the week. He was given a potentially cocky ride by Spencer last weekend which in my opinion has caused a slightly excessive rise in the weights, he is due to go up 16lb for his win but today gets away with just a 6lb penalty and obviously should be hard to beat. He was hard on the bridle at the line and it only a guess to how much he could have won by. Admitly that was a poorish class 4 staying event and this is a step up in class but clearly has the ability to be something a little bit special potentially listed/group class. He has already shown a good level of form in bumpers winning a listed event at cheltenham and showed plenty of promise in maidens at inadequate trips and stepped upto 2mile on handicap debut and took the piss, soft ground doesnt look any problem having won on heavy ground in bumpers. Spencer keeps the ride and I would like to see him not give it quite such a cocky ride! Also gonna have a little saver on Dayia, she won a listed race on final start last season in france and ran a good enough race last time out on first run of the season over a trip that probably in the end stretched her, should find this step back in trip a positive and soft ground again no concern as she loves the mud and if she strips fitter and builds on reappearance she has to be considered. 1pt win Keys 5/4 lads

He has a great chance, aint a fan of jamie but he's the right man for the job.

[ballyoisin_bomb]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July 1pt win calypso bay 255 southwell landed a 3 mile 3 race at fontwell in novermber, that was on soft ground. when last spotted at uttoxeter 9 days ago he won a 3 mile race this time on fast ground so seemingly acts on any surface. the distance wil be right up his street too. should win again at shades of odds against maybe

[jayalexander]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July 8:10 Newmarket - Granston At 10 years old, Granston's the old timer in this race, but he has won previously at the start of the year, so is not to be underestimated. He takes this at cl3, which is a step down to his last outing at cl2. The advertised going of GS should suit him as he has won 2 of 8 on the ground. Has a further entry on the 24th, which looks as though his trainer has got him ready for the run. 10/1 boyles - ew (bog)

[Monterosso]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July 4:30 Ascot - Dhaamer - 1pt @ 13/2 (WillHill) 11 runners are set to go to post for this competitive Class 2 Handicap and whilst I've narrowed it down to a few runners, it's quite hard to be overly confident about any of them. The pace should be relatively strong though and with softer ground being very likely, I expect to see a very big race from John Gosden's lightly-raced 4 year old, Dhaamer. He's a nice moving type who has only run on 6 occasions and despite the worst of those runs came on a soft surface, I feel he should have no problems with conditions. That outing was his final run from 4 starts last year and although he was ultimately well beaten, I feel there was valid excuses. Despite being expected to take the step up to 1m 4f in his stride (had previously won twice over 1m 2f), Dhaamer just didn't see out the trip in the testing conditions. However, he moved very well through his race before finding nothing off the bridle and I think that the ground isn't a problem given how he cruised into contention. His jockey wasn't too hard on him that day, when beaten, and the final losing margin shouldn't be taken too literally. Now that he encounters this ground over what should be his optimum trip, 1m 2f, I'm hopeful of a big run. Dhaamer lined out twice this year, both in useful contests at unorthodox tracks, namely Epsom and Pontefract. The first of those runs, at Epsom, was a more than useful 3rd of 11 behind course specialist Resurge. The ground was plenty lively enough for John Gosden's charge and despite hitting the front with a couple to go, he just couldn't keep up to his work. Ultimately, I'm not sure that a speed test suits him and now that he visits Ascot on a slower surface, we'll see a much improved horse. Next time out, he was done by poor positioning in a slowly run race at Pontefract, a course that suits those racing handy. The winner, Suits Me, lines up here (only 15/2, 5lbs worse off) and on that occasion, he had the run of the race and slowed it down before quickening it up. All of this wouldn't be how the strong travelling Dhaamer wants things to go and the inclusion of a couple of other potential pacemakers will help. He's currently rated 87 and that's not a mark which should prove to be beyond him. I think he's potentially a fair bit better than that and just needs things to suit him. They should do here and therefore he's overpriced at a current price-tag of 13/2. Gosden comes down with just one runner, the reliable (sarcasm) Richard Hills comes down for just one ride and it's one they can expect to go well. There are a few dangers, but I feel my selection is the best suited to how this should go and hopefully he'll prove me right. Small stakes though, as the opposition are quite useful and a couple worry me (namely Pipette (20/1) & Point North (10/3)).

[twinny]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July 1 point win magicalmysterytour 20/1 bet365 bog 15.55 ascot i think magicalmysterytour is over priced if it can get any were near its best form,but i actually think it will go off 25/1 or 33/1 hence the bog,magicalmysterytour has only once been tried over this 2 mile trip in 35 runs,its other starts have been well shorter,its one try over 2 miles it was only beaten by less than 4 lenghts carrying 9.12 so the 8.12 on its back today might just give it a good chance if fit,4 wins to date and +£5.12 backing to a level stake is worth my quid:hope

[MaxPunter]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July Sorry to be a noob but what is "BBOTD"?

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July

Sorry to be a noob but what is "BBOTD"?

Best bet of the day and welcome :welcome

[Haystacks]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July Hi Max, You can find the BBOTD rules here: http://forum.punterslounge.com/f13/bet-day-tables-july-2011-a-118635/#post1970049

[calculus]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July 7.50 Chepstow - Triple Dream (4/1 Bet365) 1pt Win Took advantage of declining mark last time out and is still feasibly weighted under a 6lb penalty today, veteran trainer Milton Bradley looks to be coming into a bit of form at the moment and had a similar sort go in under a penalty at Bath yesterday. My selection historically shows his best form at this time of year and I think he must go close today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July Southwell 2.55 Gem Mill 1pt win - 5/1 Betfred Backing for the 178th time this summer. Very genuine horse, who keeps meeting improvers and finishes 2nd. In no way I think he is ungenuine though and off feather weight, he could be competitive today.

[Boulder5111]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July Y6.30 Boy The Bell 1pt Win 9/2 Boylesports I'm going to York races this evening so I picked this one out last night, and the early exchanges indicate that it's fancied this evening which is a major plus with any Brian Ellison runner. Todays race is very similar in conditions to its win on its penultimate race and I suspect it was an inexperienced jockey rather than a rise in the handicap that got it beat LTO. Crack claimer S M Levey is in the saddle tonight and everything looks set for a good run. 9/2 looks a very fair price.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July 855 Chepstow: Picot De Say 1pt (3/1 Bet365) Staying handicap with a moderate animals and most pretty exposed so we shouldnt have many surprises lurking down the field here. The two to concentrate on are Picot De Say and Vertueux both C/D winners and will go on the ground. I much prefer the former as he showed good form last time and the stable are going well enough. Vertueux was poor last time and hasnt showed much since winning this last year.

[therealmccoy]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July 0.5pts eway green park 18/1 bet 365 630 york fired in a treble over 6f in 2010. has slippede to a very low mark due to bad form but could be ready to strike again. worth a pop

[Spooner]

Thirsk 13:30 Green Howard 7/2 Hills 1pt win Slowly away on debut but made good headway to finish 3rd over Doncaster's 6 furlongs, the step upto 7 should suit given he was staying on well on debut, we've seen racecourse experience can be vital and although the favourite has that too I think this one will progress nicely from his last run and get off the mark here.

[andyjkmak]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July 2.55 southwell Outlaw Tom could turn the favourite over here, won over this C/D off a higher mark 3 runs ago and has run with credit in the two subsequent races. Tendency to make mistakes but the chase experience will really test the ability of Calypso Bay who will have to jump well to win here. Definitely better value to side with Outlaw Tom. 1 Pt win 4/1 Bet365

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July 3:55 Ascot - Keys - Back He has a standout chance. Was aimed st the Cheltenhsm CHampion Bumper originally but injury scuppered that ploy. He then came to the track and was continually being strongly backed and showing relatively little for a horse with such a big reputation and was starting to frustrate. But then last Saturday happened. He made a mockery of what looked on paper like a very competitive handicap. He hit the front absolutely hard on the bit after travelling through the field like a dream, leaving the impression he was a fair bit better than that level. Stepped up in class today under a penalty but connections seem keen to get another quick win before his new mark kicks in. Can't believe he's odds against here, should be 4/6 in my opinion 1pt win @ 11/10 VC BOG

[selfe1]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July 1445 ascot mehdi. 1pt win. 9/4 bet 365 Only had 2 races so far but was up against some fine horses n finidhed 2nd n 3rd in those races so the horse is in great form.

[Falbrav]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July RAIN DANCE 2.10 Ascot. 1 point win. Will come on bundles for debut and will like the trip and ground. Hughes a good booking and should prove too much to handle for the others, if of course they don't improve that bit more than expected. 5/1 Sky Bet

[Verisimilitude]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July WEE ZIGGY 2.20 Southwell. 1 point win. Nightmare to win with, so not sure why I'm going for the win on that basis, but for the life of me I cannot see how he cannot finish out the frame if jumping well enough. The trip and ground's fine and it's a race full of ifs and buts, so I take him to score today. Could win this very very easily if he wants to. 9/2 Bet365 (bog)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July 5.05 Ascot - 1pt win Fantasy Gladiator @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes) This horse has never won on turf, but I think today could be his day. First Post is possibly a deserving favourite, but I'm wary of his tendencies to hang (probably throwing race away at Sandown recently), and is worth taking on in my opinion, with a horse who I think has been a little bit unlucky of late. He destroyed a Kempton field off a mark of 80 in December and runs off a turf mark of 79 today. There are no questions that he goes on turf, he just simply is probably better on the all-weather. Some of his better turf runs have come on softish ground, so I'm very hopeful of a big run today. All of his turf runs have been good this year, after excuses of a break on his first start of the season. He stayed on well in the blanket finish at Sandown, where Norman Orpen won, and First Post hung badly. He took a keen hold over 10f at Chester but ran well enough to say it was a little bit too taxing on the stamina front. His effort at Salisbury can be well excused when racing on the wrong part of the track - the first four were clear and were centre to far side - Fantasy Gladiator ran stands side. Everything went against him over today's c&d last time out, when losing his position and unable to find a run for ages, and could never get dangerous despite staying on when clear. Conditions clearly suit today, and I think he'll go very close if the breaks come.

[fintron]

Re: BBOTD 22nd July 8.30 york crimson knot - alan berry has been badly out of form all year but has recently turned the corner with the likes of wicked wilma and red roar. because of his barren run he now looks to have a set of better handicapped animals. this one looked like it was gonna win at Muss three runs ago when coming with a late run and didnt get run of race last time at Catterick when winner blasted out. 1 pt win