Jump to content

bbotd wed


Recommended Posts

Re: bbotd wed

Therealmccoy' date=' you can't change the price 3 hours after you've taken lower odds. Suggest this bet is voided completely.[/quote'] whoops a lesson was learnt there me thinks Russ, sometimes taking what you think is a good early price isnt always the case
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed 4.30 Lingfield Suited and Booted 16/1 Bet365 Made very nice progress last year for Richard Hannon but hasn't been the same horse this season. I think the horse has possibly been a little high in the weights and has been running in very competitive handicaps. He has been dropped another few pounds and is now with a new stable. They have opted to put a 7lb claimer on today to give him the best possible chance of winning. Although he hasn't looked like winning this season, he is effectively 10lbs lower than when winning at Newmarket this time last year so should be in with a shout.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed

Therealmccoy' date=' you can't change the price 3 hours after you've taken lower odds. Suggest this bet is voided completely.[/quote'] if billy h deems this bet a void im prepared to accept that. however i would suggest taking the sp instead as a solution
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed 4:50 Catterick - Merito At first glance, Merito could be one to instantly strike off your list of possibles based on past performances, but the 3yo is trained by Kevin Ryan (currently a very good yard of 3yo's), dropping down a class from 5 to 6 and may relish the slightly softer ground. Ryan is on 31% with 3yo's in maidens this year. He and stable jockey, Makin are 28% with horses of this age in 2011. Based on these stats, the 20/1 RP forecast seems way out. Win at SP

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed Its very hard not to see Miss Carberry get a win under her belt in the 2nd last at Downpatrick - mares flat race. Trainer Gordon Elliott has a string of runners at the meeting but Nina makes the trip for this sole ride, her brother bangs in winners for fun when he rides for Mr Elliott and its hard to see past this combo today, the horse is also ''owned by Mr Elliott'' Downpatrick 4:45 Court Lexi - 1pt win at SP Steak dinner please Nina.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed 8:30 Sandown - Rastaban - 1pt @ 13/2 (Bet365) Only 7 runners go to post here in what looks to be a reasonably competitive 3 year old contest. William Haggas comes down to Sandown with a single runner and he could go well. Rastaban, a maiden winner on his second of a couple of outings as a juvenile, comes here on the back of a disappointing effort over C&D, in which he was a very well-backed 4/1 favourite of 14. It wasn't a run void of promise though, as Haggas' charge was given far too much to do in the race by Johnny Murtagh. Rastaban was held up a long way behind a very solid pace and it proved impossible for him to make an impression on the leaders. You'd think that it would suit a horse who was virtually assured to stay the trip but I think he's one who needs to grind down those in front and won't be capable of chasing from a long way back. The way he moved at various stages of the race was encouraging and although he shapes as if being in need of further than the 1m 2f trip that he faced then and now, things could prove to be more favourable today. Mr Perceptive (a 16/1 shot then) finished in 2nd that day, a full 5 lengths ahead of Rastaban back in 8th place. However, the 4lb swing in the weights will help my selection and given how I think he under-performed that day, there should be enough in the tank to turn that form around. There's also a big price discrepancy, as the former mentioned is 3/1 and William Haggas' runner is 13/2. On the form of that race alone, it seems correct, but I'm pretty sure that the lightly-raced Rastaban will go on to be the better horse and if he's on the job today, he shouldn't be available at this price. Aiken is currently holding favouritism at 2/1 and that looks phenomenally short. He's fairly well-related and from a good yard but both of his career runs have come on a softer surface and his last time out win was at Chester, which is a completely different proposition to what he faces here. He didn't achieve a whole pile either, as the ½ length 2nd is an average 69 rated animal. Gosden's runner should have a lot more to come, but the price isn't attractive on what is his handicap debut. Misty Isles was also an impressive and easy winner last time out, but that was at Brighton in a weak maiden. She looks useful but again, this is a different proposition and a mark of 79 may not make things easy. Her 4/1 price-tag wouldn't be for me. Overall, Rastaban will probably need further in time and he's not one to place a whole lot of faith in. However, he looks likely to be suited to this smaller field contest. It's also a weaker race when compared to that of which he faced last time out. A good gallop to chase would be nice and isn't assured, so that has to be the main worry. I'm still willing to overlook that as he ran a cracker on his penultimate outing in a much tougher no-pace-race. His yard are in cracking form with 11 winners from their last 33 runners and Jamie Spencer is in a similar rich vein of form. The pairing boast a fine 20% strike-rate and this fellow is the only runner that Haggas sends out to Sandown. He will improve in time but a mark of 75 shouldn't be beyond him at all and conditions are suitable today. I think his price is a shade generous and I'd be surprised if he doesn't go off circa 4/1. Connections will be keen to get him off the mark sometime soon and this could prove to be an ideal opportunity. Small stakes though, as anything could happen. Hopefully he'll go well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed 0.5 e/w cinamatique @ sp 15.30 lingfield a nine horse race with a forcast 11/10 and 11/8 shot,the 3rd fav being forcast @ 12/1 i thought i would look for an e/w steal ,something that could take these not so good favs on,hopefully grab 3rd place for the e/w but also have a chance of winning,so i watched some of the previouse runs of the outsiders that have been in action before hopeing for my selection to jump out at me,well it didnt...they are all donkeys thats why i picked newcomer cinamatique,i just cant see any of the others getting in the top 3 a very poor contest cinamatique might be a donkey also but with what else is on offer i will take a chance 32red have it @ 35/1 and it has been matched on betfair between 45/1 and 150/1 so am expecting to be a big price

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed Crimson Knot - 3.50 Catterick (0.5ew 12/1 BETFRED) One of those horses that rarely runs a bad race, and consequently never gets any relief from the handicapper. After five runs this year she is still on the same mark that she started the year on, 78. However, she was hampered last time out, and was 1lb out of the handicap the time before. Furthermore, her two runs prior to those were over 6f, when I think she prefers 5f. Another reason for optimism is that today she is ridden by Julie Burke, who is great value for her 5lb claim, whereas previously this year she has only been rideen by Patrick Mathers and Slade O'Hara. Also, this is the first time this year that she has raced down in Class 4 company over her ideal 5f, so the opposition is weaker. Anyhow, with a 'dead eight', an each-way price of 12-1 on a consistent horse seems worth a punt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed 2.30 Lingfield Ambrose Princess is 2-2 over this course and distance and has a great chance to make it 3-3. A much higher rated animal over jumps she won't mind the ground and has a decent jockey to guide her today.Won the corresponding race last year albeit of a lower mark but at least is proven on the surface, sure to go close. 1 Pt win 11/2 Hills

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed 2.30 Lingfield: Dove Cottage 1pt win @ 22/1 Bet365 BOG Think this horse is a big price at 22/1. Has won from far higher marks in the past and had been running well over a variety of trips, including todays, before sorely disappointing LTO. That run looks too bad to be true and can be overlooked IMO. Could end up getting run of race from the front here and if so, may be tough to peg back. The other horse that interested me here was Kavaloti but given it's frailties in a finish would have to pass it over - in any case on a strict line through the horse Money Money Money, Dove Cottage could have the beating of that rival. Of the 3yos, Raiph Becketts horse looks the most interesting but neither can be discounted. From a price perspective though, Dove Cottage at 22/1 looks generous and have to have a small stakes pop at it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed 700 Worcester: Risk Challenge 1pt (9/2 PP) Looks very competative on paper but in fact only half a dozen of these can get involved. I'm aware of the dangers that Direct Flo, Watch Out and Commit To Memory provide but the most consistent by far is Risk Challenge, was given far too much to do last time by the champ and the stable continue to go well. Last time he ran on over this trip and the two runs before that were over two miles and helped get the handicap mark down so he can run in 0-90 races. He should be able to take advantage here. A bet to nothing EW for those that want some insurance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed 3:30 Lingfield - Avon Blaise - 1/2pt EW @ 125/1 Victor Chandler This 4yo debutant is 33/1 at a couple of firms, yet VC have her priced up at nearly 4x that. She is the 2nd foal of Blaise Castle, so is the older half sister of this year's Cheshire Oaks 2nd Blaise Chorus. Whilst she has little chance of Godolphin or Hamdam al Maktoum colours in this race this afternoon, her price at VC still means you get 25/1 for the place part, meaning she needs win the 6-winner race w/o the front 2 in the market. Given the other 5 horses include a seemingly regressive filly (Galloping Queen), a once raced filly (Pani Ash) whose only run at 2 wasn't good enough to even generate a RPR, another debutant (Cinematique), and a twice raced maiden (Aaranyow) who has been weakening quickly over shorter trips, then I am plenty tempted to take a chance at the price that she can get the better of the only other runner (Lupa Montana) to show any promise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed Worcester 20:05 - Quotidian 50/1 Bet365 0.5pts e/w 3 mile maiden hurdle here and one at the head of the market Dot Of The Feather is expected to go well, Quotidian was 14 lengths behind that one LTO and given I expect this field to be well strung out over this 3 mile trip perhaps this one could sneak into a place, its a tough task to reverse that form but I do feel this one is overpriced and has the best chance of the outsiders.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed

3:30 Lingfield - Avon Blaise - 1/2pt EW @ 125/1 Victor Chandler This 4yo debutant is 33/1 at a couple of firms, yet VC have her priced up at nearly 4x that. She is the 2nd foal of Blaise Castle, so is the older half sister of this year's Cheshire Oaks 2nd Blaise Chorus. Whilst she has little chance of Godolphin or Hamdam al Maktoum colours in this race this afternoon, her price at VC still means you get 25/1 for the place part, meaning she needs win the 6-winner race w/o the front 2 in the market. Given the other 5 horses include a seemingly regressive filly (Galloping Queen), a once raced filly (Pani Ash) whose only run at 2 wasn't good enough to even generate a RPR, another debutant (Cinematique), and a twice raced maiden (Aaranyow) who has been weakening quickly over shorter trips, then I am plenty tempted to take a chance at the price that she can get the better of the only other runner (Lupa Montana) to show any promise.
150-1 stan james..hope its scoots in for ya:ok
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed

3:30 Lingfield - Avon Blaise - 1/2pt EW @ 125/1 Victor Chandler This 4yo debutant is 33/1 at a couple of firms, yet VC have her priced up at nearly 4x that. She is the 2nd foal of Blaise Castle, so is the older half sister of this year's Cheshire Oaks 2nd Blaise Chorus. Whilst she has little chance of Godolphin or Hamdam al Maktoum colours in this race this afternoon, her price at VC still means you get 25/1 for the place part, meaning she needs win the 6-winner race w/o the front 2 in the market. Given the other 5 horses include a seemingly regressive filly (Galloping Queen), a once raced filly (Pani Ash) whose only run at 2 wasn't good enough to even generate a RPR, another debutant (Cinematique), and a twice raced maiden (Aaranyow) who has been weakening quickly over shorter trips, then I am plenty tempted to take a chance at the price that she can get the better of the only other runner (Lupa Montana) to show any promise.
Im new in this horse racing bzns, but this one looks to good, to turn down. :hope :cigar
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed

Im new in this horse racing bzns, but this one looks to good, to turn down. :hope :cigar
:\ Rule #1 of this horse racing bzns - Don't follow my tips Rule #2 of this horse racing bzns - Don't follow my tips etc etc Follow those rules and you'll be on the right path :ok
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed 3:20 Catterick - Hel's Angel - Back On official ratings he'll take an absolute world of beating here. He's at least 9;lbs well in against all rivals here (except for Hada Men but he is the most out of form horse in the race by a mile and it would be a real shock were he to win). Hel's Angel may not quite be worth his full rating but with such a nice cushion in hand it's unlikely he'll get beaten here. The connections have booked Paul Hanagan so are clearly not here to make up the numbers and he should reward them here. Eijaaz is the obvious danger under the red-hot Silvestre De Souza but he has 11lbs to find at the weights and it'll be hard for him to turn that much around 1pts win @ 11/10 William Hill BOG

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed RESOLUTE ROAD 3.40 Uttoxeter. 0.5 points each way. Showed more like what's expected last time and I think he will improve again. The handicapper certainly thinks so with putting him in off a mark of 97, but with trip and ground not a concern and improvement to come (hopefully), the odds make him well worth a bet. 20/1 Sky Bet

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed Walls Way 4.10 Uttoxeter. 0.5 points each way. I liked the way he took to fences last time and no reason why he shouldn't improve on it. Gets in again off a mark of 89 and so with the trip and ground not a concern for me and with the race looking to have enough pace about it, he'd look sure to run well. 10/1 SportingBet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed

1 point win calypso bay 340 uttoxeter 6/1 bet 365 frosted grape got home under the mccoy drive lto and hes favourite here, however mccoys jumps off him, supposed ly due to weight, to take over on calypso bay returning from a break and with good previous form. should win
a peach of a ride from the champ!!:beer
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed

0.5pts eachway cadeaux pearl 1550 catterick SP made all lto and was collared late. that was from a prohibitive draw and with him now ideally drawn he can attack from the front and win
if billy h deems this bet a void im prepared to accept that. however i would suggest taking the sp instead as a solution
Firstly you can have SP this time rather than a void bet, this is the last warning about this behaviour, you can change a bet to EW but needs to be done in a new post in future, prices can not be altered. Secondly, RussP has been a mod around here as long as me if not longer and he has the power to make decisions as much as me, i'm just the admin bloke so dont disrepect any mods please if you fancy staying on the forum. Some people just need to read the rules properly and then everything would be fine and dandy as long as they adhere to them that is.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed sandown 8.30 misty isles 1pt win 7-1 bet 365 great win last time, even though it wasnt a strong card. has potentally in this race and is worth a bet at 7-1. good jockey on board too. buthave to wait and see weather this horse is good enough if strong company.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: bbotd wed 9.00 szabo destiny @ Sandown - Has won at the distance before and the ground will be no problem.Takes a drop in class and is down 1lb from last two races.Good jockey booking tonight with Tom Queally in the saddle and he has a 14% strike rate on 3 year olds this year. 0.5 pt E/W @ 11/1@ Ladbrokes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...