Flat Racing; Monday 30th May

[Lars]

16:10 Redcar Breakheart is allegedly a difficult horse to get fit, but he seems to have slowly come to the boil this season and looks a huge price in this top quality handicap. Michael Dods runner has had three starts to date this season, and has improved in each of them so far. He was badly in need of the run on his first start at Doncaster, travelling fairly well before running out of gas. He stepped up on that effort two weeks later at the same track, running into 4^th. He finished 2.5 lengths behind Arlequin, who he re-opposes today, with a 5lb pull in Breakheart’s favour. The selections last run, at Newmarket was his best for some time, even though he was beaten 6 lengths. That was behind Green Destiny, who looks an incredibly tidy prospect and a Group horse in the making. Breakheart became slightly outpaced over the 9f trip, before finishing with a late rattle, and did well to come from as so far back as he did. One potential concern for a casual onlooker would be that Breakheart hasn’t won in 8 starts. That being said, he was raced in contests a little stronger than he races in today, such as the Cambridgeshire and The Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury. These races were much tougher than today’s, and he still acquitted himself well. From memory of getting a look at him on that day at Newbury, he looked the sort to improve as a 4yo, and from his performances this season, today may be the day. A galloping track like Redcar should suit, and obviously Michael Dods believes that too, as he has a very competent record round here (LSP of +£34.88). There’s quite a few dangers in this race, including Sarsarr. I’m not sure about how well handicapped he is, and I’m a bit perplexed at the jockey booking of Tony Culhane. Sirvino has dropped to a fair mark now, but I feel he’ll need a stronger pace or further. Mirrored won well last time, but he’s a complete nutter and his attitude is questionable, a comment that can also be applied to Tom Tate’s entry. I’m not too keen on Fahey’s chance, especially as Paul Hanagan has gone to Carlisle. Merchant of Dubai may be too high in the weights still, while the two Mark Johnston runners have chances on paper, but I cannot catch him right and I’ll oppose. Pendragon may be the biggest danger, running on well last time over a trip too sharp, and he’ll come on for that. He may just run into a couple too good, and I’m hoping that one is Breakheart. A price of 15/2 seems too big for a horse that is almost definitely going to be fully fit and is likely to enjoy the track. He seems fairly weighted, especially as on other occasions the handicapper would have put him up a couple of lbs for the Newmarket effort, and of course, Freddie Tylicki is a top rider. This is a nice race, but with that considered, I’m really keen on the chances of Breakheart to register his first win in almost a year. Breakheart; 3pts Win @ 15/2 Paddy Power (bog)

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May typical rainy bank holiday ........2.30 chep this looks a weak race and atia 4/1 generally looks a strong fav to take this ,recorded a 118 on the clock lto and has been dropped 1lb in the hcap as a result of finishing 3rd that day which seems generous . 4/1 is not a bad price so 2 pts win for me

[BillyHills]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May Been hammering it down for at least a couple of hours in Leicester and still raining, beware anyone betting at Leicester today, going change a certainty.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May

typical rainy bank holiday ........2.30 chep this looks a weak race and atia 4/1 generally looks a strong fav to take this ,recorded a 118 on the clock lto and has been dropped 1lb in the hcap as a result of finishing 3rd that day which seems generous . 4/1 is not a bad price so 2 pts win for me

actually scrub this bet as the going is deteriating and is good.sft at least and worsening so the ground is wrong for the bet to warrant carrying any money

[zoolander]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May Chepstow 3:40 Kadood 11-1 Bet365(BOG) 1 POINT WIN Added this one to my alerts, missed the break and was about 15 lengths off the pace but finished like a train to finish second only beaten by a head. Same distance, ground and jockey today so im expecting a big run from this one today. Only up 2 pounds from that last run so well handicapped to go one better today. Channon yard are red hot so ther eis a lot in its favour, Neil Callan on run rabbit run is the danger but at 11-1 this is the horse to be on this race.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May 2.35 goodwood soap wars 144 sets the standard here and will probably be very hard to beat but 2/1 is very short for a horse with 5 extra pounds on his back and a 6lb hike in the hcap so theres got to be a bit of value somewhere in here and i think it lies with qadar 18/1 boylesport which looks absolkutely huge for a horse that looks on the upgrade .......his ratings 102 ,134 suggest the horse is coming to hand ,hes well weighted and has everything in his favour for a big run .....will have to produce something good to beat the fav but i think hes capable on his day

[chris34]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May 2.40 Leicester Steps must have a better chance than his price suggests surely? You can completely forget his last run at Chester when running well before stumbling in the home straight and was then heavily eased afterwards but looked to be in with a shout before stumbling and wasnt exactly that well drawn that day neither but showed bags of speed yet again and must have a solid e/w chance of course the Henry Candy runner is gonner be hard to beat if repeating last time out effort. Steps was very consistent last year and he proved he could make it as a decent handicapper when 2nd to the useful looking Loki's Revenge in an end of year nursery off a mark of 77 now only 3lb higher and looks competitive on this mark of that stumble hasnt effected confidence. 1pt e/w Steps 12/1 pp 2.35 Goodwood You cant exactly say Mymumsaysimthebest was unlucky last time out but wasnt given any chance when breaking slowly from stall 1 at Windsor which is just fatal. Was then out the rear the whole race before staying on eye catchingly through the field when the race had already been won by Soap Wars who is currently a short priced favourite for this race who won well last time out but rather got the race to himself and perhaps wont things so easy today although remains well handicapped on best irish form if anywhere near back to that form but the prices look skinny and far more value in Mymum in my opinion having won well on previous start when beating Collect Art who has won twice since and placed twice since and that whole form looks to have a solid look about it. 2pt win Mymumsaysimthebest 5/1 hills 3.30 Carlisle Mcbirney has a good chance to complete the hatrick having won first 2 starts in handicaps having showed very little in maidens although did stay on over 7f, stepped up markedly in trip on handicap debut and was well backed to get off the mark infront of a consistent AW handicapper in the Broughtons Paradis beating him by 3 lengths. Stayed on even better over a slightly shorter trip last time out on turf debut winning with plenty in hand again and that form has been boosted since with 2nd (who reopposes today but on 2lb worse terms) and 3rd both winning next time out and although up another 7lb he is 2 from 2 in handicaps and still unexposed and handicapper may not have him yet. 4pt win Mcbirney 11/4 pp 5.55 Chepstow Charlie Too has been running well on the AW recently having made a winnign reappearance at Wolvcerhampton on a basin mark of 45, travelling well throughout and came down the outside with a smooth finishing success and looked capable of more again after that, was then run at Southwell where his hold up style wasnt well suited and was badly outpaced at the start but finished very strongly again at a track that is hard to do so at and managed to pinch 2nd, that was off a 6lb higher mark up a further 1lb but useful claimer takes off 5lb today rather than last times 3lb so effectively 1lb better of than when at southwell. Main concern is the head gear being left off has clearly trained on over the winter and could still have some improvement if proving effective back on turf without headgear! 1pt win CharlieToo 9/2 pp

[Lars]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May 15:05 Chepstow Wrote this last time for Abergeldie.

“Abergeldie could be a good thing off a mark of 65, especially after all three of her efforts have been fairly decent. He ran twice for Sir Michael Stoute as a 2yo, running a nice debut over 7f and then not quite getting home over 8f. Moved to Andrew Balding and showed that 6f was too sharp for her at Kempton when last seen, howver she was staying on eyecatchingly at the finish, and was given a very easy time of it but still made very good progress. Could be very well in here off a mark of 65, and an easier race that I was expecting her to run in, the fact that it's a fillies only race. I believe she could easily be a 80+ rated horse, and we'll definitely see improvement from her as a 3yo. Hopefully today will be the day, especially at a decent price of 5/1”

She finished third that day in a tight finish. She made a poor start and still looked a bit green. Turning for home I hadn’t a hope that she’d get anywhere close. However, she got the hang of things and made decent progress until just held at the finish. She wasn’t given the hardest of times and the step up in trip looks warranted, even though she perhaps didn’t quite get home when racing at this trip as a 2yo. She’s gone up 2lbs for that run but she still may be a bit in front of the handicapper, as all things considered, the race didn’t really pan out ideally. That race will have brought her on and provided some more experience, needed for the Chepstow circuit. Slept in today but luckily the price hasn’t evaporated too much. However, there are 15 runners now which is annoying as I would have played it EW if so. 5/1 with BOG concession isn’t a bad price, and I still think she’ll definitely be involved in the shake up. Abergeldie; 1.5pts Win @ 5/1 Boylesports (bog)

[Haystacks]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May

Chepstow 3:40 Kadood 11-1 Bet365(BOG) 1 POINT WIN ...Only up 2 pounds from that last run so well handicapped to go one better today...

It's actually a maiden race!

[Striker]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May Good Luck Today 4.55 Goodwood-Prince Of Thebes 1pt Win @ 10-1 [bet365.BOG] & 2pts Place @ Betfair Sp Very well treated horse and i like the booking of Luke Morris to ride

[Falbrav]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May STEVIE GEE 2.35 Goodwood. 0.5 points each way. Handicapper puts him in off a mark of 73 again, and that gives him every chance of turning the tables on a few lining up today. The trip and ground doesn't bother him and usually runs his race. Looks to have every chance of a win today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May Carlisle 5.15 Shawkantango 1pt win - 7/2 Bet365 PP Lads Won off higher mark on the AW and the excellent Dale Swift is a great help with his 5lbs claim. The ground should suit him today and if he doesn't meet anything progressive, he will be with every chance. The price looks good. I make him a very strong favorite here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May 4:10 Redcar: Mirrored 1pt win 8/1 Coral Mirrored bounced back to something like his old form at Doncaster last time out in April, and it looks as though he has he been kept for this. Mirrored ran some decent races off similar marks to today in Class 2 races for Sir Michael Stoute. He then seemed to lose his way, and after leaving David Nicholls he has joined Tim Easterby. His current trainer certainly found the key at Doncaster, and even allowing for being up in grade and six pounds higher in the handicap, Mirrored looks capable of going close.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May 16:10 Redcar Nice looking handicap in prospect here where a claim could be made for many of these. I have decided on the lightly raced 4 year old Sarrsar which is Saeed Bin Suroor's only horse at the meeting today and only one of two running in the UK today. He has a pretty successful strike rate when sending horses to the track with a 31% win strike rate which is very impressive. This gelding has won three times from 7 runs and finished in third place three times with only one unplaced effort to date which came last time out. He only had 1 run as a 2 year old in 2009 when he made his debut at Yarmouth over a mile. Finished 3/11 that day and was then put away for the winer. Made a winning reappearance on the all weather at Lingfield in 2010 where he ran out an impressive 6 length winner. Entered handicap company off a mark of 84 and after 2 places and 2 wins, he is now rated 95. He ran off this mark for the first time last time out at Ripon and despite finishing 6/12 it wasn't the worst of efforts. The fact he was dropped back down to a mile suggests to me that the run was just a prep run for the season and to blow away any possible cobwebs, especially considering his four previous efforts had come over 9 furlongs and today's trip of 10 furlongs. The step back up in trip today is certain to be in his favour and I think he will be the one to take all the beating in this race. 1pt E/W Sarrsar @ 6/1 (Paddy Power - BOG)

[bowles10]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May 4.10 Redcar, I have already tipped up Arlequin at 8/1 last night as the horse meets all the trends required for this race. 2 others i like in the race are Sirvino who is back to a winable mark now and also Merchant of dubai with Goldie is decent form, this one could go well depite top weight (BArtley claiming 3lbs) Bets Arlequin 0.5pts win @ 8/1 Bet365 Comb Exacta Sirvino, Arlequin and Merchant of dubai 0.3pts staked

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May Russian Rave 3.50 Leicester. 0.5 points each way. A bit manic, but surely she'll learn to settle better sooner rather than later, and when she does she'll improve quite a bit. Handicapper again given her chances today, so with the trip and ground not a concern and being at value odds, I think she's well worth a bet today.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May Decent days racing and i quite fancy the chances of a few today. Was on Diriculous in the 2.35 at Goodwood saving on Soap Wars at 5/2, that race hit with a number of non runners now and my main selection is Alfresco, 9/1 PP. Excuses last 2 starts and has dropped to a mark he's capable off. Likes it here with trip/ground not a problem and Fallon booked once again so connections may think he's ready to go close. Feeling Fresh in the 2.55 at Carlisle looks to have solid claims, 11/2 SJ. Reappearance was promising in a stronger race than this where he didnt get the clearest run. 5lb claimer on board puts this one well below his last winning mark with trip/ground preferred. Nap of the day goes in the 3.30 at Carlisle, Hong Kong Island. Still lightly raced and in top form of late, won very cosily on Friday at Pontefract. Comes here with a 6lb penalty but Dale Swift's claim takes away 5lbs of that. Trip/ground not an issue and a likely decent pace should be ideal. Wide draw and quickly turned out after last run the main concerns but if getting a decent pitch and still in good health should win this, 7/2 various firms. The 4.05 at Carlisle is a very competitive race but i think the value lies with Khandaq at 28/1 Coral. Still lightly raced running for the new Keith Dagliesh stable who's runners are going well. Won nicely on the sand off 3lb lower 2 starts ago and ran with credit lto of todays mark. Winner was very well handicapped that day and the third has won since, Khandaq's 4th that day isnt bad form. Unproven on ground but won on the sand and gone well on 'good' so i think it shouldnt be a problem. Upped in trip with a stiffer finish but if held up and a likely decent gallop i think the race will be run to suit. Never a 28/1 shot imo and strong each way claims.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May

Decent days racing and i quite fancy the chances of a few today. . Feeling Fresh in the 2.55 at Carlisle looks to have solid claims, 11/2 SJ. Reappearance was promising in a stronger race than this where he didnt get the clearest run. 5lb claimer on board puts this one well below his last winning mark with trip/ground preferred. The 4.05 at Carlisle is a very competitive race but i think the value lies with Khandaq at 28/1 Coral. Still lightly raced running for the new Keith Dagliesh stable who's runners are going well. Won nicely on the sand off 3lb lower 2 starts ago and ran with credit lto of todays mark. Winner was very well handicapped that day and the third has won since, Khandaq's 4th that day isnt bad form. Unproven on ground but won on the sand and gone well on 'good' so i think it shouldnt be a problem. Upped in trip with a stiffer finish but if held up and a likely decent gallop i think the race will be run to suit. Never a 28/1 shot imo and strong each way claims.

ive had 5pts e.w at 11/2 on this feeling fresh ser .......he looks capable of a very good run today

[stewartd14]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May 4.05 Carlisle Tax Break 2 pts win @ 5/1 Stan James A lot of exposed types in this race, barring David Barron's Tax Break who comes here off a win at Wolverhampton last time. The speed figure of the race is strong, and the form couldnt be working out better. McBirney has come out and won his next 2, now rated 79 and Crown Counsel has come out and won twice, most recently off 83. Tax Break has been given a rating of 80 on his first handicap run which looks a very workable mark considering the strength of his maiden win. He faces some experienced handicappers here, but I believe this unexposed son of Motivator will take a lot of beating.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May Redcar 16:45 Apreslepetitbois 1pt ew @ 7-1 (SkyBet) Maiden race. Trainer is in very good form the last 14 days to pass up his entry. 3rd, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 2nd going into today. His first two entries finished 8th and 5th, he has two runner left to run. Jockey booked is T P Queally and he does well with maidens.

[cc75]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May 5.50 Carlisle: Hits only Jude 1pt win @ 12/1 Will Hill BOG This horse is better on the all weather than turf, however last time out run was full of promise having ran on well from a long way back and was probably better than the finishing position suggests. Extra furlong can only help on that evidence. Has winning form in these ground conditions and is very handily weighted on the turf in comparison to AW - could be a decent value bet here IMO.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May 4.50 Chepstow - 1pt win Serial Sinner @ 12/1 (Bet365) - BOG Nothing stands out for me today but will take a punt on a handicap debutant for Paul Cole. Showed decent form in 1 mile maidens when beaten 4 1/2l on her debut in a good race at Windsor - behind Izzi Top (rated 100 now) before showing speed at Kempton before fading into a 5l 8th behind Sure Route (good runs have come out of the race). Was beaten quite badly at Nottingham behind Traffic Sister but again it wasn't a terrible maiden I don't think, and gets a handicap mark of 67 which looks fair. Drops down to 6f which is a good move in my opinion. Dulio Da Silva takes off a further 7lbs so this horse could go quite nicely off a low weight. It's a poor race and a big run looks in the offing.

[georgeCOSTANZA]

Re: Flat Racing; Monday 30th May Chepstow 17:25 Dies Solis 1pt ew @ 6-1 (StanJames) I think he brings the best LTO form into this race. 3rd to Dashwood and The Wee Chief. He led until headed inside the final furlong and could only stay at the same pace from there. That was his first run in nearly 8 months so it was a very good outing. Will be more fit today and likely to keep on late in the race. It was also a Class 5 Handicap 2k race with today being dropped down in Class to a Class 6 Handicap 1k event.