FLAT RACING 5TH MAY

[richard-westwood]

1.45 chester its very rare i look at a race and see a potential gold mine stareing me in the face .....usually in these situations i either win big or the whole thing explodes and i finish last (or last but one ) but this race is one of those .... captain bertie 90 + crown counsel 85 belle royal 90 weapon of choice 120 gd fred willets 150,150 take a look at this chart and tell me why captain bertie is even money fav and fred willets is 14/1 !!!!!!!! (faints ) .they are saying this fav is nailed on but i dont see it personally .....fred willets has achieved the 150 rating twice on his last 2 runs and has keiron fallon on board today ........like i said this is one of those races where either the fav will find some superhuman improvement and win easily or fred willets will reproduce his recent form and blast them off the track at double figure odds ,if this goes in it will be one of my finest speed ratings to date :hope

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY i was wondering if some of the more advanced handicappers would look at this race and see if they concur or am i dreaming? oh i can see why they make him fav .....the r.p handicappers have him 8lbs well in but his recent clock run says hes super slow so its my speed ratings head to head with the official handicapper for the prize title ......that makes it even more exciting !!!!!

[Haystacks]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY Well, it's not advanced, but the obvious reason why Captain Bertie is such a hot favourite is that he is 8lb 'well in' (LTO jockey was 2lb overweight and horse since raised 6lb for future by handicapper). I haven't had a chance to look at the other runners, but I won't be backing Captain Bertie at 5/4.

[Quackers]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY I don't like backing favourites but the first 3 at Chester tomorrow look pretty strong

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY well im steaming in the 16/1 with paddy power

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY

well im steaming in the 16/1 with paddy power

e.w of course

[Haystacks]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY

e.w of course

OK, I've followed you in on the 16/1 e/w PP Richard. I don't have any speed ratings, but I do think his last run (beaten just under 4 lengths) may have been better than it looked due to a bad draw. Rated 87, he's 7lb lower on the flat than the a/w (where he's won off 89), so he may possibly be not too badly treated himself. Plus, from the start of December, when the visor is used he has a record of 211126, with the 6th place possibly excusable with that bad draw. (Without the visor he is only 385). Fingers crossed!

[Stevet1859]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY 2:20 Chester: Critical Moment 1pt win 12/1 Stan James If Await The Dream is ready to go, this could be a one horse race. However, with bigger targets later in the season he may just be vulnerable. Critical Moment looks overpriced and should out-run his odds. He shaped pretty well first time out at Ascot and was noted staying on again with a second wind. That pipe opener and step up in trip should be in his favour. Barry Hills has a good record here and at this meeting and if son Michael gets Critical Moment out in front and kicks off the turn he may take some catching. One or two question marks over some of the others in the line up, so Critical Moment is not a forlorn hope.

[RussP]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY Personally, I'd be opposing Fred Willetts. Ok, it's a big price and you may have it top on speed figures but, for me, these 3yo handicaps are all about scope & potential. Of all the runners, FW is beginning to look the most exposed of these and whilst it has decent form, I don't think it will improve all that much. Does however have a top jock on board. The fav and others, like Frankie's mount, seem to have greater potential and I wouldn't want to be going in large despite the 16/1 price. Good luck:ok

[Stevet1859]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY Hi Richard, I often check out Patternform. Looking there, Fred Willets and Captain Bertie are joint top on speed ratings. Although Fred's best was acheived on the a/w over 6f at Kempton. I thought FW had a decent chance on Sunday when he ran down the field. He has been kept busy and others might improve past him. Nevertheless, at the odds I think that's a decent e/w bet. Interesting Kieren Fallon takes over too. Good luck with it. Steve

[bowles10]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY Goodwood 3.50 Thursday METROPOLITAN MISS 4/1 >Bet365 0.5pts win I saw this run last week at ascot and felt it would win another race. It was 2nd behind Emmas gift that day and good to see it out again quickly with the trainer in very good form also, 6 winners since last Friday. The Michael Bell/Hayley Turner horse Desert shine is the danger however its an unknown on turf and last ran 2 months ago. The favouite Deity will attract market support which should help the price on the Channon horse

[Trotter]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY 2.20 Chester - Dream Eater - win at 13/2 BOG Bet365 Add me to the gang willing to take on the O'Brien hotpot here ..........:tongue2 Apart from the fact that O'brien doesn't have a great record with first time out horses, Await The Dawn has been described as a big, tall, long striding galloper - not the kind of horse you'd think would be ideal for Chester. I'm wondering if the're trying him on a tight track to see if it's worthwhile going to Epsom for the Coronation Cup ? He might well hose up as a potential Group One horse but I'll take the chance that he won't Dream Eater has had plenty of chances in group company and keeps finding one or two too good. He's a very good horse though, second top rated here on OR. He's got some impressive performances in his record. Last time out at Sandown beaten about 3 lengths by Dick Turpin. The race before that he was beaten less than 3 lengths in the Hong Kong Mile. He's finished close up behind Goldikova, Paco Boy, Pressing. He just doesn't win ! Maybe the step up in trip at Chester is what he needs as in the Mile races he's often seen to be finishing fast but too late. Could be a slow run race today with a small field around the turns. His stamina should hold out and his finishing speed could be decisive over the extra 2 furlongs

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY

Personally' date=' I'd be opposing Fred Willetts. Ok, it's a big price and you may have it top on speed figures but, for me, these 3yo handicaps are all about scope & potential. Of all the runners, FW is beginning to look the most exposed of these and whilst it has decent form, I don't think it will improve all that much. Does however have a top jock on board. The fav and others, like Frankie's mount, seem to have greater potential and I wouldn't want to be going in large despite the 16/1 price. Good luck:ok[/quote'] this is where speed ratings become unstuck ,what you said is exactly true ,the handicap mark is suggesting that the horse has the potential to improve and possibly record a faster time today but lto he only recorded -3.00 and was flat out .fred willets has recorded standard time on 2 separate occasions and were he to recreate that here at chester then he should win by about 5 lengths if the others dont drastically improve today .of course there are negatives ...top one being because he has recorded such fast times recently he is at risk of "bouncing " as many speedsters do and will he like the twists of chester ? the handicapper says they will improve past him ,the clock says he was trounce them if he runs his best race .......im fully of the mind the handicapper has it right and they will improve past him but in the beyer book i think he says that sometimes races like this come along and you have to trust the clock and hope for the best ,like him sometimes it doesnt come off ,but sometimes it does ....so you toss the coin i suppose :hope

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY captain bertie and crown counsel are shortening drastically and fred willetts is drifting badly ......not a good sign i must admit ....if hes going to win now it will be at a huge price ,just had another 5 points win at 23/1 on betfair!! timeforms view : C&D winner Captain Bertie was a long way clear of the rest when taking another step forward in the Esher Cup at Sandown on his recent reappearance and will be a tough nut to crack off a 2 lb lower mark. Fred Willetts could prove the chief threat ahead of Belle Royale. 1: CAPTAIN BERTIE (IRE) 2: FRED WILLETTS (IRE) 3: BELLE ROYALE (IRE) 23/1 chance chief threat in their opinion ? its a big day ......attempted "coup " in the first and nathaniel in the chester cup which will make or break my ante post derby bet ..........i love it !!!! lol

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY may as well post some more races .....its good to test the ratings and gives me more results to scrutinise .. 2.20 chester await the dawn 80,120 (easily ) 10f good forte de marmi 150 (10f good/firm) (recent 102) distant memories 120 (10f soft) dream eater 120 (8f) this race seems to revolve around the await the dawn and forte de marmi .the latter has proven he can do the time but his comeback run was nothing special and arguably i would have wanted a better showing to consider the e.w bet here .distant memories best form is on soft and i cant believe he will improve so drastically on the faster ground (but not beyond realms of possibiltys .dream eater i think will be proven to be better at 8f and 10f might be beyond him ,which leaves await the dawn who looks to be on a steep upward curve ....last rating of 120 was done (as you like ..) and looks like a big performance is imminent .....if forte de marmi hits top gear today then could make a race of this ...if not then fav will probably win by miles

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY 4.05 chester : beachfire finished last season with 150,and 150 on fast ground (both runs) ,his comeback run was only around the 122 mark on good ....but that has probably blown the fluff out and should be ready to post a better time today so looks a strong fav at 2/1

[cc75]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY Chester 4.05: Jutland 1pt win @ 8/1 Bet365 BOG Ran well last season winning a couple of handicaps over this trip. Ran well on seasonal debut too so break from track shouldn't be an issue. Ideal draw for prominent racing style and could get run of race from front here. Conditions look ideal for a big run.

[chris34]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY 4.05 Chester The Tom Dascombe team are in good form and although theyre a stable I am not a big fan of I think there runner Classic Colori looks a big price at 9/1. He has won first time up the last 2 seasons including last year in listed company. Was never able to cut it in handicap company afterwards but handicapper taking a real chance dropping him to a mark of 92 and this will also be the first time he has encountered fast ground since winning a maiden on g/f which also offers some hope. I am keen to take on the short priced favourite Beach Fire who ran respectably on revised mark on seasonal reappearance in first time blinkers closing late but didnt shape as a horse well handicapped and blinkers are left off again today! Changing The Guard hasnt won for nearly 2 years but keeps going close and didnt get a great run though last time out at Doncaster so is worth another chance with the yard continueing in great form and still looks handicapped to win races if getting a clean race. 1pt win Classic Colori 9/1 bet365 1pt win Changing The Guard 11/2 betfred 5.10 Chester Totally missed the price on Nibani who makes handicap debut today only just failing to make a winning return in a maiden last month clearly on the improve and a mark of 82 might be lenient but the price has colapsed but that makes others look big prices and Roger Varian's runner is another carrying a similar profile into this race with only 2 starts to date, winning a maiden on second attempt last october, clearly goes well fresh and a mark of 85 doesnt look over harsh with the race working out well most notably the 3rd placed horse Local Hero who won next time out and then went on to win over hurdles next 3 starts including a Grade 2 hurdle race. The other that looks massively overpriced is Inspirina who is well suited to tight courses like this having won here twice and also Epsom and Brighton which all suit his blazing front running tactics, well drawn to do just that today and has run well fresh in previous years, won a ametuer race very well off a 2lb lower mark so could easily make a presence felt here and his stamina could stretch this field from the front fingers crossed he is fit to go! 1pt win Pekan Star 5/1 corals 1pt e/w Inspirina 33/1 corals 2.05 Goodwood Moynahan often caught the eye last year with over exaggerated waiting tactics but did finally pick a course handicap up off a career mark over a mile last year when landing a gamble. He does tend to go well here at goodwood and now returns off just a 1lb higher mark than that win but all that said record fresh not great so only small stakes but yard are banging in winners including plenty of first time up winners aswell so aslong as he is wound up he could easily be in the firing line! 1pt win Moynahan 6/1 bet365

[StuSimmy]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY 15:50 Goodwood Metropolitain Miss catches my eye on her handicap debut today. She gets in off a mark of 77 despite a 16lb future rise of her handicap mark on the way up to a mark of 93 due to her form in a conditions race last time out at Ascot where she finished in 2nd place, three quarters of a length in behind Emma's Gift. She made her debut on the 5th of April at Kempton in an 8 runner race over a mile where she ran out a very impressive winner. She won by 3 and a half lengths and although that race wasn't a strong one at all, she clearly improved on that run when finishing 2nd in a conditions race at Ascot on only her second start. Similar conditions today with regards to the trip and ground conditions and if she can put in a repeat performance of that run today then I think she should take this race especially considering she finished 2 and a quarter lengths ahead of a horse rated 96 on equal weights then she look very well in today off a mark of 77. 2pt win Metropolitain Miss @ 4/1 (Skybet)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY Chester: 1.45 - 0.5pts e/w Shafgaan @ 22/1 (VC) This horse goes against any logical thought process at Chester, but is overpriced anyway in my opinion. Drawn widest of all, he'll have a lot of work on to beat the so-called "good thing", but there could be the "bounce factor" so it is worth taking on. Shafgaan flopped rather in hot company on his seasonal reappearance, but shaped as if needing the run, and is no 22/1 shot on last year's form. Despite never getting his head in front, you only have to look at the horses who beat him to understand why. After his debut on heavy ground over 5f, the winners of the races he's competed in are as follows (with their current OR): Klammer (106) Dress Up (80) Zebedee (107) I Love Me (103) Fury (103) Sir Reginald (102) Until his most recent run, he'd never been beaten more than 5 1/4l, and that came behind Fury in the Tattersalls Millions 2yo trophy. Horses such as Auld Burns and Measuring Time narrowly ahead that day have run well since. Drawn wide, and doesn't look the speediest, suggests this race is not for him, but if you forgive him that run, then he's consistent and can run into a place at least today. Philip Robinson is going to have to get him into a good position early from the widest draw, and get him settled, but a mark of 90 doesn't look beyond him on his 2yo form (101, 105, 105 are the official ratings of the horses 3 places above him in the Fury race.)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY 3.50 Goodwood - 1pt win Beatrice Aurore @ 11/2 (Hills) Tough race to call with unexposed fillies but Beatrice Aurore ran two promising races last year including a comfortable maiden win. Was well fancied when only managing a moderate return at Doncaster over 10f. Steps back to the mile in which she is proven. Took on the boys at Donny too, and that form looks okay. The winner, Barbican, ran a close 2nd in a good race next time out. The 2nd, Dorcas Lane, won next time out. Malice And Mischief, beaten 7l by my selection, also won next time out. Will have needed the run, steps back in trip, back against her own sex, and the John Dunlop team is in much better form now. They started very slowly and as proven with Times Up (very disappointing at Doncaster), who won a good handicap last weekend. John Dunlop has had 2 winners from 3, and 3 from 8.

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY

1.45 chester its very rare i look at a race and see a potential gold mine stareing me in the face .....usually in these situations i either win big or the whole thing explodes and i finish last (or last but one ) but this race is one of those .... captain bertie 90 + crown counsel 85 belle royal 90 weapon of choice 120 gd fred willets 150,150 take a look at this chart and tell me why captain bertie is even money fav and fred willets is 14/1 !!!!!!!! (faints ) .they are saying this fav is nailed on but i dont see it personally .....fred willets has achieved the 150 rating twice on his last 2 runs and has keiron fallon on board today ........like i said this is one of those races where either the fav will find some superhuman improvement and win easily or fred willets will reproduce his recent form and blast them off the track at double figure odds ,if this goes in it will be one of my finest speed ratings to date :hope

omg !!!! i was screaming him home .....just pipped on the line by dettori .....still gave me a fantastic ride so im over the moon !!!

[MrJol]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY

1.45 chester its very rare i look at a race and see a potential gold mine stareing me in the face .....usually in these situations i either win big or the whole thing explodes and i finish last (or last but one ) but this race is one of those .... captain bertie 90 + crown counsel 85 belle royal 90 weapon of choice 120 gd fred willets 150,150 take a look at this chart and tell me why captain bertie is even money fav and fred willets is 14/1 !!!!!!!! (faints ) .they are saying this fav is nailed on but i dont see it personally .....fred willets has achieved the 150 rating twice on his last 2 runs and has keiron fallon on board today ........like i said this is one of those races where either the fav will find some superhuman improvement and win easily or fred willets will reproduce his recent form and blast them off the track at double figure odds ,if this goes in it will be one of my finest speed ratings to date :hope

Speed rating wins :clap

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY

OK, I've followed you in on the 16/1 e/w PP Richard. I don't have any speed ratings, but I do think his last run (beaten just under 4 lengths) may have been better than it looked due to a bad draw. Rated 87, he's 7lb lower on the flat than the a/w (where he's won off 89), so he may possibly be not too badly treated himself. Plus, from the start of December, when the visor is used he has a record of 211126, with the 6th place possibly excusable with that bad draw. (Without the visor he is only 385). Fingers crossed!

enjoy the winnings haystacks !!!:cheers:cheersnearly a jackpot payout ....cant believe we only lost by 1 length but at least we beat the fav .....get in !!!

[Quackers]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY :cheers cheers Richard. I didn't back the winner but you put me off having a large bet on Captain Bertie

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY fallon didnt make it to the course ? .....would that have made the 1 length difference? we'll never know :eyes

[richard-westwood]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY

may as well post some more races .....its good to test the ratings and gives me more results to scrutinise .. 2.20 chester await the dawn 80,120 (easily ) 10f good forte de marmi 150 (10f good/firm) (recent 102) distant memories 120 (10f soft) dream eater 120 (8f) this race seems to revolve around the await the dawn and forte de marmi .the latter has proven he can do the time but his comeback run was nothing special and arguably i would have wanted a better showing to consider the e.w bet here .distant memories best form is on soft and i cant believe he will improve so drastically on the faster ground (but not beyond realms of possibiltys .dream eater i think will be proven to be better at 8f and 10f might be beyond him ,which leaves await the dawn who looks to be on a steep upward curve ....last rating of 120 was done (as you like ..) and looks like a big performance is imminent .....if forte de marmi hits top gear today then could make a race of this ...if not then fav will probably win by miles

await the dawn won by miles :unsure had a couple of quid on it but that looked impressive so interesting to see the times

[Quackers]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY 4.05 Chester Thin Red Line 2pts e/w 5/1 Corals I am hoping the dead 8 go to post here as you will get the 3 places. Thin Red Line looks to have been laid out for this race and he returned to action at this track last year when winning a similar contest very comfortably. The Dodds stable took this race last year with Sweet Lightning and this one looks to have a decent chance on his best form. He has been helped slightly by the handicapper and has course form to call upon. Beachfire took plenty of time to get going last time out and may find things happening to quickly for that horse around here. Thin Red Line looks to have a great each way chance here having been targeted for this race. He should have no fitness worries as he won first time out last year so fingers crossed he delivers the goods.

[Quackers]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY 2.55 Chester Nathaniel 5pts win 15/8 William Hill Nathaniel looks a very top prospect and I expect him to take the Chester Vase today. He was so unlucky last year to bump into both Frankel and Picture Editor in two red hot maidens. He got within half a length of Frankel which could be the closest that any horse ever gets to Frankel so that was a massive run on debut. Next time up he was unlucky to run into Picture Editor who surely has a big prize in him this year. Genius Beast who finished 1 place behind Nathaniel in both of them maidens has come out and won a group 3 this season fairly comfortably. The form of his return behind both of them horses however hardly needed franking. Nathaniel is bred to be better over longer distances so he did well getting so close to Frankel last year. Stepped up to the same trip as the Chester Vase at Haydock he romped home by 9 lengths beating two other horses and looking better the further he went. It's hard to assess that race with there only being 3 runners and the other two horses not being up to much but he was visually impressive. He has a derby entry and no doubt an impressive win in this race will see his odds shorten. Slumber who won very impressively at Epsom and Treasure Beach who is bred to do better this year are both big dangers but I think Nathaniel looks a very exciting prospect. He has already shown his ability to handle quick ground and he is a powerful, galloping horse so Chester should be right up his street.

[Quackers]

Re: FLAT RACING 5TH MAY 3.15 Goodwood Sleek Gold 12/1 1pt e/w Bet 365 A tricky race to nap in but I like the look of the Brian Meehan horse here. This horse was given a tender ride first time out last season over 7f at Kempton where he finished strongly. Horses from this yard very rarely win first time up and are of great interest on their second run. The stable took this race last year with a short priced favourite and I expect them to go close with this one. She has a very nice pedigree and is related to several winners. She should improve this year and for the step up to a mile. It is very much a guessing game trying to work out what may or may not have trained on but horses from this stable can normally be relied upon to have improved from 2 to 3. Sleek Gold should improve this year and at 12/1 she is a good bet against the two shorter priced horses in the race.