western skies Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Thursday 5 May 2011 Home Draw Away BPP Sporting de Braga v Benfica (20:05 BST) 2.79 3.5 2.72 101.18 % Villarreal v FC Porto (20:05 BST) 2.56 3.7 2.91 100.45 % Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YAMAN Posted May 3, 2011 Share Posted May 3, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Villareal v Porto I believe that this is a safe bet... After 5-1 defeat in the first game, the chances of home team to eleminate Porto is not the most possible outcome while I believe that thy would like to leeave the competition with dignity and honour in front of home crowd... I dont see any reason to expect an underish game and in worst case if there is 3 goals only, we wll get our money back... Over 3.0 Goals @2.08 188BET 7/10 Have a great day :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mister P Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Agreed. Villarreal are fourth in La Liga so obviously have a good pedigree, and with Nilmar and Rossi pose a solid enough threat to a Porto side that will play it's usual attacking game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deviance Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Also have to agree with the two posts above, Villareal has to score and Porto isn't the kind of team to go into full defend mode, I'm postive we'll see plenty of goals in this game. Over 3.5 goals @ betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
He who dares .. wins Posted May 4, 2011 Share Posted May 4, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May I'm going for a villareal win at 6/4 with paddy power for the fact villareal need to win by a margin of 4 here not saying that will happen but the fact is they need to win the home crowd will be up for it as it's there only chance of winning something porto are in the driving seat don't need to win draw would do but i see villareal stealing this by a goal or 2 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOTTI3 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Braga - Benfica = under (1.80) Totosì Braga position 3° points 45 Benfica position 2° points 59 Preview: Braga: unavailable: Vandinho (midfielder 22 / 0), Paulo Cesar (striker 20 / 5), Ukra (forward 10 / 2). Benfica: suspended: Pablo Aimar (cetrocampista 22 / 5), Jardel (defender 7 / 0); absent: Nuno Gomes (striker 5 / 4), Sage (midfielder 19 / 4), Ruben Amorim (midfielder 12 / 0), Luis Filipe (defender 3 / 0); include: Carlos Martins (midfielder 22 / 3), Nico Gaitan (midfielder 23 / 7). Definitely balanced the Portuguese Champions League derby between Benfica and Sporting Braga. The match went the home side were to prevail thanks to goals from Jardel and initialed by the momentary balance of Cardozo Vandinho spaced at 53 '. The return match promises to be hot, by virtue of the away goal scored at the Sporting Braga with a huge defensive solidity would be enough to win 1-0 in the final step for the mortgage and deal with (probably) the port in another exciting derby Portuguese. But Jorge Jesus and his men will travel to Braga to set up a purely defensive game and counter-oriented: their motto is not to make goals. :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van_Basten Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May I have to agree that Braga - Benfica has everything to be a under 2,5 game. Last 6 matches between these two teams ended in 4 unders. Braga isn't a typical attacking side and Benfica is really a mess these days. I see a Mourinho style game: Braga will try to hold on and try to score in some counterattack. Then it might be game over to Benfica. At least with Dynamo and Liverpool that worked. All they had to do was to defend well. But I also see that the last 2 times Benfica went to Braga they lost (2-1 a couple weeks ago and 2-0 last season). Braga morale is high and I sincerely think that Braga has all the value to qualify for the final in Dublin. As I said Benfica right now is physically and mentally a mess. They lost the league title to Porto and again to Porto they lost the possibility of reaching the Portugal's Cup final. They simply cannot hold a clean sheet in the last 8 games and I doubt they can do that today. So having said that I see value in Both to Score @ 1.84 (Betfair). Braga will certainly score and if Benfica doesn't want to say goodbye to the final then he has to score too. GL to u all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheImp Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Villareal v Porto Total Villareal Cards - 2 or 3 @ 11/10 (William Hill) 2 pts Total Villareal Cards - Over 3 @ 18/5 (William Hill) 2 pts The same as my Man Utd bet last night. The first leg produced 6 yellow cards between both teams and I think tonight will be more intense. As with Schalke last night, if Porto grab a goal (very likely) the heads will drop and the frustration will kick in for Villareal, who only have this competition left to win anything. They will not want a thrashing at their own ground, and if there is any hint of that happenning, I expect lots of aggressive play from the home side. 2 pts on over 3 cards for Villareal...however the saver is 2 pts on 2 or 3 cards which effectively gives me back my stage for both (with slight profit). Only 1 or less cards will ruin this! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Sporting Braga - Benfica under 2.5 @ 1.77 pinnacle Benfica lead 2-1 from the first leg so their priority will be not to concede a goal since the tie will swing away from them if Braga score. Back in March, Braga did manage to defeat them 2-1 at home but with Saviola getting a red card for Benfica, it changed the game for the away side as they were winning 1-0 at that stage, and Braga were able to score a couple of goals to win the game. Braga are a team that defends well but does not score often, as they have gone under in 5 of their last 6 games at home in all competitions, with each of these 5 games seeing one goal or less scored in them. In the Europa League, all 6 games went under (including 3 home games) prior to the game against Benfica, and can see this one being low scoring too. Benfica will be looking not to concede while Braga will look to hold out Benfica until half time, and though they then may open up some more, they really do not have the offensive players to cause Benfica too many problems. Villareal - Porto over 3.5 @ 2.52 pinnacle Villareal have a massive mountain to climb to qualify from this situation as Porto lead 5-1 from the first leg. They can take some encouragement from their previous home games in this competition where they scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their 6 home games, so they will come out looking for eary goals. Porto showed their dominance and with a healthy 4 goal lead there is no reason for them to go defensive here, and they can play their natural attacking game where they have scored at least 2 goals in 9 of their 13 EL games, including 4 of 6 away games. Also they have scored 5 goals in each of their last 3 EL games, so they are productive in this competition, and see no reason why they should change things here. Can see an open game with plenty of chances for both sides, with goals in it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YAMAN Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Villareal v Porto I believe that this is a safe bet... After 5-1 defeat in the first game, the chances of home team to eleminate Porto is not the most possible outcome while I believe that thy would like to leeave the competition with dignity and honour in front of home crowd... I dont see any reason to expect an underish game and in worst case if there is 3 goals only, we wll get our money back... Over 3.0 Goals @2.08 188BET 7/10 Have a great day :) Additionally to my main bet, I believe that Villareal to score in both halves @2.85 BWIN 4/10 is smtg to consider... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bagehot Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May I generally agree with the Under / Over picks for these two matches - clearly that seems to be the pattern of play here. Porto are travelling to Villareal with a win on their mind, you can be sure of this. One of the things their strong run in all competitions this season suggests is that coach Villas Boas has kept the team focused on each match at a time. Of course this could be a tough match for Porto, they could concede their first away defeat of the season tonight, but I do not see it as likely. I see both teams scoring, and the 1X2 market doesn't really represent value. If Porto are to win this though, it could well be by more than a goal. Might try a +0.25 on Porto, but I haven't decided yet. I do think the 1X2 market offers value on Braga. 2.80 for an outright win. Braga may not have the biggest offensive power, but IMO they will be looking to score from set pieces. Benfica have leaked goals, conceding at least one goal every match for the past 15 or so, many of these goals have come from set play trouble with either Roberto or even more likely their back line doing something scrappy. I don't see Braga losing this match, and I rate their chances. They've beaten Benfica in Braga for the past two seasons, big pressure as this is the biggest game in Braga's history, but I think they will fancy their chances. Braga (0) at 2.05 for me, though my judgement may be clouded as I would rather see Porto face Braga rather than Benfica in Dublin :) . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pg_yid Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Agree with the over pick for the Porto game. As has been said, Porto are taking every game very seriously. Their form is so impressive they want to keep it up and as the league is already won there is no reason to take their foot off the gas here, so they will play their normal attacking game as they did in the last round after the tie was already won (winning 5-2 away at Spartak Moscow). Meanwhile, although they have been impressive domestically in defence, they looked vulnerable at the back against Villareal. They played with a dangerously high defensive line and were lucky to only concede one goal. So with Villareal needing goals and both sides having talented attacking players on dispaly, my pick is over 3 goals @ 2.08 with 188bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Just a quick 'warning'. I was looking at the price to back Porto to qualify. Earlier today it was @ 1.01. In the last hour 1.02 appeared for 2k and has risen to 32k now available. Can't see any reason for the money holding it up, but I'm holding off on that one for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May ..........and it's gone down to 13k now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May That is odd because the porto to win in 90 minutes price is shortening slightly at the high street bookies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Villarreal vs Porto. Over 3 goals. 2.02 @ Pinnacle No brainer on overs here, I think. It was 5-1 in the first leg. Mission impossible for Villarreal to get back into the tie and they are out. Their coach has said that they will play attacking football. Porto are exactly the same and we can fully expect to get lots of goals today. At least three is my pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
discipline Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May odds for porto to score more than 1.5 goals have moved from 1.85 to 1.91 @ bwin. why is that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zerosparx Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Hey guys I am a new better just started few months ago. First post here, I know this won't contribute to the discussion so please forgive me. I want to play the overs 3.5 for Porto game, my budget for betting is £397.50. The returns will be £993.75 (if I win), so should I go all in? my biggest ever bet was £50, am I getting greedy here? Looking forward to any advice. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Its your money my friend, only you can decide :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grieksken Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Hey guys I am a new better just started few months ago. First post here' date=' I know this won't contribute to the discussion so please forgive me. I want to play the [b']overs 3.5 for Porto game, my budget for betting is £397.50. The returns will be £993.75 (if I win), so should I go all in? my biggest ever bet was £50, am I getting greedy here? Looking forward to any advice. Thanks think you're getting greedy acutally. Porto has proven they can play on result aswell and that not all of their games go over so.. But as said, it's your money and only you can decide.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zerosparx Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Its your money my friend' date=' only you can decide :)[/quote'] Somehow.. I knew someone would say this, thanks for making me more nervous buddy :D, I'll make my decision 30 min before kick off I guess ^^ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bagehot Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May am I getting greedy here Yes, you are. Never put all your eggs on one basket. You're going for 8 times the maximum amount you've ever betted, and on a risky Goals bet... be careful, that's recipe for trouble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Just a quick 'warning'. I was looking at the price to back Porto to qualify. Earlier today it was @ 1.01. In the last hour 1.02 appeared for 2k and has risen to 32k now available. Can't see any reason for the money holding it up' date=' but I'm holding off on that one for now.[/quote'] If you were thinking of backing them to qualify at 1.01, 1.02 represents double the value ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May am I getting greedy here? Yes - as you know ;) But the most important point is you are 'putting all your eggs in one basket'. If you really believe it's great value and can afford to risk this amount then it might be a good idea - but is this is the case? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zerosparx Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Yes' date=' you are. Never put all your eggs on one basket. You're going for 8 times the maximum amount you've ever betted, and on a risky Goals bet... be careful, that's recipe for trouble.[/quote'] Thanks guys! The egg basket example really opened my eyes, losing everything is much worse than losing some. So I'll bet small today :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edpor Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Porto will play with the most used 11, even Moutinho who is in risk of suspension will start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueHunter Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Hey guys I am a new better just started few months ago. First post here' date=' I know this won't contribute to the discussion so please forgive me. I want to play the [b']overs 3.5 for Porto game, my budget for betting is £397.50. The returns will be £993.75 (if I win), so should I go all in? my biggest ever bet was £50, am I getting greedy here? Looking forward to any advice. Thanks We do not use monetary values here but odd points because the cash a single punter will spend on a football, tennis etc... event doesn't really matter. All that matters is the strenght of his/her bet which is illustrated with the help of odd points. £397.50 could be the budget for an entire year of some bettors but it also could be an ammount other bettors can afford to spend on a single event so using monetary values is irrelevant. My advice to you is not to bet more than 2-3% of your starting bank/budget on a single event, this should be your maximum stake. Putting your entire bank on on a single stake will get you bankrupt sooner or later. Set some small/medium/high stakes and use them depending on how confident you feel about the bet. Let's say high stake-3%, medium stake-2%, small stake 1% or something like that. So if £397 is your entire budget, don't spend more than £12 on tonights game. Villareal v Porto tie is a virtually over and my opinion is not to rush blinly into it with such a big stake although I also think we will see some goals tonight. Spanyards are extremely tired in the end of the season and their defence looks horrible which contrasts with their top quality forwards (Nilmar and Rossi). In previous rounds Porto proved they go out for the win in every single game even tho they got a comfortable lead from the first leg (e.g. Spartak Moscow game). High-scoring game at first glance ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zerosparx Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May We do not use monetary values here but odd points because the cash a single punter will spend on a football' date=' tennis etc... event doesn't really matter. All that matters is the strengt of his/her bet which is illustrated with the help of odd points. £397.50 could be the budget for an entire year of some bettors but it also could be an ammount other bettors can afford to spend on a single event so using monetary values is irrelevant. My advice to you is not to bet more than 2-3% of your starting bank/budget on a single event, this should be your maximum stake. Putting your entire bank on on a single stake will get you bankrupt sooner or later. Set some small/medium/high stakes and use them depending on how confident you feel about the bet. Let's say high stake-3%, medium stake-2%, small stake 1% or something like that. So if £397 is your entire budget, don't spend more than £12 on tonights game.[/quote'] Thanks for the solid advice. I agree with betting (all) will get you bankrupt, sometimes it's so tempting but self control is the key thing here. I'll start with £12 as you say, I think my betting tactics will be slow and steady betting approach. Also this will probably be my last post talking about amounts of money. Thanks again, I'm loving this forum already! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mister P Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May :clap everyone this evening, both games nailed. Europa League has sh*tloads of goals, meaning to get a lot more involved in it next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackcrow Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: UEFA Europa League > Thursday 5 May Sporting Braga - Benfica under 2.5 @ 1.77 :) Villareal - Porto over 3.5 @ 2.52 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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