Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Good stuff mate. Lady luck was smiling down on you but you need that at times.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

How do you bet if you don't mind me asking? Do you bet in singles? doubles? multiples? what? because I continuously keep getting screwed over by the odd loss in an accumulator. :sad I know best to do doubles and singles but I always get too tempted with the return figures with accumulators...

Singles every day of the week now. Used to do doubles but now just go for the one at a time. The more matches you put into a single bet, the more chance the bookie has of beating you. That's how I see it. If you fancy an accumulator, my advice would be to put a tiny stake on it and make sure odds are big, and make it more of a fun bet.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Good stuff mate. Lady luck was smiling down on you but you need that at times.

Absolutely, luck is vital at times. Often I take the unders as security as well, but in this case I simply thought Murray would force the errors from Bellucci. Never saw the Brazilian putting in a performance like that :eek

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Singles every day of the week now. Used to do doubles but now just go for the one at a time. The more matches you put into a single bet' date=' the more chance the bookie has of beating you. That's how I see it. If you fancy an accumulator, my advice would be to put a tiny stake on it and make sure odds are big, and make it more of a fun bet.[/quote'] Thats the thing, I make it a fun bet to begin with by typing 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 in the amount takes box and then my mind starts to go into the "what if I doubled that stake?" Look how much would come in!!!! I end up doing 10-30 pound accumulator bets and with frustration lose on the odd one or receive less through a retirement.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) I have a friend exactly like that, always trying to win bigger amounts.......:ok I personally think accumulators are the biggest no in betting. Although I do the odd small one in first round of the slams

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

I have a friend exactly like that, always trying to win bigger amounts.......:ok I personally think accumulators are the biggest no in betting. Although I do the odd small one in first round of the slams

I'm gonna stop. BTW, you should really be removing F Lopez from your blacklist.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) How would you guys price Fedex-Soderling if you had to?

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Fed 1.3-1.4 maybe? If I was doing it I'd have Fed closer to 1.5-1.6.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) I am not really sure. Obviously the bookies are going to post Federer as a big favorite, but he is nowhere near 1.3 realistically. Federer looks horrible on return in my opinion and Soderling is a level above Lopez in rallies.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Bwin have opened with Fed at 1.35, Fed is always really low against Soderling. I'd go closer to Fed 1.5 Soderling 2.5.

[crack]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) But Soderling showed nothing special today. ;) Maybe odd for win is too low. Maybe I will bet games over :)

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) I would put Soderling on a massive handicap plus if I had the money to bet. Infact, I'd almost certainly go £20 on there being a tie break in the match. Both serves have looked in fine form, especially Soderling buying him out of trouble against Tsonga on numerous occasions, Federer isn't the best returner in the World and Soderling has had his number recently in the most recent past. Both players are way too solid and accomplished on their own serves and it would take something special, that certain spark of genius and creativity for either of them to break the other. I would sway more towards Federer getting that break, but for it to happen in BOTH SETS, is unlikely IMO. Tie Break in match @ odds of around 7/4 I'd be guessing.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

How would you guys price Fedex-Soderling if you had to?

I still make Federer a pretty big favourite at 1.38. The Swiss has a 15-1 H2H record that just can't be ignored. He's got a hex over Soderling. It may be close - I reckon the line should be 3.5 either way - but at the end of the day, I'd expect Federer to eke it out in the tight situation. If we were dealing with an in-form Soderling then he'd probably be worth a punt. Hard to gauge that from the Tsonga match because it was a serve-fest. Soderling just had a bit more off the deck. He's been poor recently, and his loss to Juan Martin Del Potro last week suggests he's not at the level required to get the win. Of course, Jurgen Melzer exposed Federer on clay, but the quicker conditions probably suit him more. I'll see what the line is before biting.

[Duckets]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) beating lopez was no mean feat even for federer, soderling was poor against del potro, he should have won the second set. I make federer fav, convincing win against x malise who has been fine himself. Federer was poor against meltzer but i dont think he was motivated to win that comp,

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Thomaz Bellucci - Andy Murray
Selection	Thomaz Bellucci
Strength	10/10
Date	05/05/2011
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 5.00
Reasoning	Madrid TMS (ESP) - Clay, Round of 16. Andy Murray is a big favorite here but I have to say that odds like 1,20 are not serious in my opinion. Murray never played against Bellucci. Andy played against Simon Gilles yesterday and had big problems. Gilles had 10 break points. Bellucci played against Mayer yesterday and he was serving very nice: 1st Serve Points Won 73% (36/49) 2nd Serve Points Won 65% (13/20) I see close match with many games and propably with 3 sets so odd like 5,00 is fantastic for me!

I've been on Bellucci all week and I had to follow u on this today :ok Bellucci does have a good potential to be a top 10 player and he does show it from time to time but he does'nt have the real consistency yet but this week is a typical tournament where he can go far.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Tomas Berdych v Thomaz Bellucci Bellucci +3.5 1.80 bet365 Now beware Berdych because now you will face the best player yet this week. Berdych can be in trouble if Bellucci keeps being consistent and it seems he is quite good now and this will be a very even contest. It was only a matter of time before Bellucci picked up some form again.

[flaskoncek]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) :welcome I'm not new here, but until now I haven't made any posts. Now I would like to share some betting tips and informations. Roger Federer v Robin Soderling - lay Roger Federer at 1.47 Tomas Berdych v Thomaz Bellucci - lay Tomas Berdych at 1.48 Soderling is not on top form but I think his level is still higher than Lopez and Malisse. That's my opinion after watching Soderling vs Tsonga and Federer matches. I haven't watched Bellucci vs Murray. Is Bellucci form so good or Murray was so terrible in this match? Berdych didn't show nothing special for me against inconstant players like Granollers and Monaco. What do you think?

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

:welcome I'm not new here, but until now I haven't made any posts. Now I would like to share some betting tips and informations. Roger Federer v Robin Soderling - lay Roger Federer at 1.47 Tomas Berdych v Thomaz Bellucci - lay Tomas Berdych at 1.48 Soderling is not on top form but I think his level is still higher than Lopez and Malisse. That's my opinion after watching Soderling vs Tsonga and Federer matches. I haven't watched Bellucci vs Murray. Is Bellucci form so good or Murray was so terrible in this match? Berdych didn't show nothing special for me against inconstant players like Granollers and Monaco. What do you think?

I say Djokovic v Bellucci in semifinal. Berdych as you say have shown nothing special.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Tailing on Berdych (CZE) vs Monaco (ARG): Berdych - 4 @1,885 Pinnacle WIN Nadal (ESP) vs Del Potro (ARG): Nadal - 4.5 @2,020 Pinnacle VOID Murray (GBR) vs Bellucci (BRA): Under 20.5 @1,926 Pinnacle WIN Gajdosova (AUS) vs Safarova (CZE): Over 21.5 @1,800 Pinnacle LOSS Mattek-Sands (USA) vs Schiavonne (ITA): Mattek-Sands @2,850 Pinnacle WIN Azarenka (BLR) vs Parra-Santonja (ESP): Under 18.5 @1,769 Pinnacle WIN and adding Wozniacki (DEN) vs Goerges (GER) Over 19.5 games @1.800 Pinnacle WIN

Pretty much successful day. Fully recovered from the initial "fading Kvitova" disaster (with a little help of Verdasco, too), and back in bold black numbers. Thank you all for the successfull bets I did follow.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) I do make a couple of things valid bets today, but I'm not going to fire. Can't take something with much conviction in any of the matches. It's one of those days where nothing would surprise me (well, apart from Michael Llodra beating Rafael Nadal). Relatively close to hitting the David Ferrer handicap but Novak Djokovic has been outstanding this week, and Ferrer hasn't really impressed. Probably a days to just enjoy the tennis; those are the day I like :ok

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Only two bets for me today, low odds, but IMO pretty safe Federer to bt Soderling @1.535 Pinnacle (2u) Rare to see odds on the world #3. I was fading Federer against Lopez, but Federer convinced me that he really means it to stop his way down. As to Soderling - he lost to Dodig and DelPo in last couple of weeks, and his performance yesterday against Tsonga was not truly impressive either. Federer choked against Melzer three weeks ago, but otherwise he was losing only to Nadal and Djokovic since Paris 1000 last year. IMO easy money. Mattek-Sands (+ 1.5 sets ) to bt Li-Na @1.602 Pinnacle (1u) The thing with Li-Na is that it always takes her couple of games to heat up. Only then she decides whether to go up one level and crush her opponent, or to choke the match altogether. It happened her in matches with Martinez-Sanchez and Vinci (Benesova was not a problem for Li-Na). Mattek-Sands is different level than Benesova, especially on clay, and considering Li-Na will be most probably frightened to death by Mattek's paintings on the face, she will start play tennis only after the 1st set has been finished (and lost).:lol GL :hope

[Duckets]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) please be cautious about laying berdych, i watched the whole match and murray was poor andy murray played below par and even though the odds dont suggest the truth between bellucci and berdych when it comes to who will win, i think the handicap and overs market might be safer options. Personally i think berdych is better than is ranking suggest and definately a better player than murray. 1st set over 9.5 games @ 1.73 is not bad imo

[Duckets]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Any thoughts on j goerges vs A pavlychenkova

[Duckets]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) In the doubles gonzalez/rettenmaier is a solid bet i think but the is just ok 1.55

[READ24]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) WIN Llodra, Done the stuff in the third as predicted, bad start but clawed it back, now to be demolished by nadal! Taking pavly to beat gorges, at 1.91 currently on betfair. As said before goerges lack of mobility in the third set against woz, whether that be by injury or exhaustion, will be a telling factor. I think this will be exposed today and am happy to take odds on offer.

[Duckets]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

WIN Llodra' date= Done the stuff in the third as predicted, bad start but clawed it back, now to be demolished by nadal! Taking pavly to beat gorges, at 1.91 currently on betfair. As said before goerges lack of mobility in the third set against woz, whether that be by injury or exhaustion, will be a telling factor. I think this will be exposed today and am happy to take odds on offer.

Thanks for the info i didnt know georges had some condition, i thought the price was a bit much on j georges, think i will just watch this one

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Berdych to beat Belluci 2-0 if you ask me, Belluci can't live with the sheer CONTROLLED AGGRESSION Berdych has, his movement isn't good enough, Murray played one of the worse matches he has done in a long time regardless of the surface. Monaco's movement on clay nears exceptional and Berdych dealt with him in a comprehensive manner, whilst Belluci has more power than Monaco, he still gives his opponents chances to flatten out there shots and hit winners or force unforced errors. 2-0 Berdych @ Evens with PaddyPower Strength 9/10

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Azerenka to beat Safarova 2-1 10/3 with PaddyPower Strength 8/10 Obviously both the more talented and consistently well proven player, however, Safarova is in hot form and the way she played when dispatching with her last 2 opponents, one being JJ (whom played pretty good herself) was a EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE. Safarova to beat Azernka 9/2 with PaddyPower Strength 7/10 This is to cover the Azernka in 3 sets bet, I feel Safarova could sneak this and I GENUINELY MEAN THAT, I've been watching both players intently and I really cannot separate them on clay.

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) and Pavly is being spanked :rollin. I think that yesterday it was not an ankle injury with Goerges - it was blisters.

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

I'm on quite a lot today, many of the same as people have mentioned. I'm unfortunately only able to use betfair from where I am, which is a bit of a hassle but hoping this has made me reject some bad picks. Azarenka v Parra Santoja - under 19.5 games @1.57 - 10 points As everyone has sad, Azarenka is playing brilliantly at the moment and is giving nothing up. She's winning her service games which is absolutely vital. I'd have taken an 18.5 game line and possibly less depending on the price but I've had to settle for this, although I'm very confident so it's max. stakes at shorter odds. Berdych v Monaco - Berdych 2-0 @1.93 - 5 points Berdych is the public bet today, which is always a bit of a worry but he was very impressive against Granollers yesterday. Monaco struggle past Golubev in round 1 then was lucky to face an ill Monfils on Tuesday. I think Berdych should win this without too much fuss and I'll take the 2-0 at a better price than the -3.5 handicap. Mattek-Sands (+3.5 games @2.0) v Schiavone - 5 points Value has gone on the outright on Mattek-Sands but this price looks okay for her to either win or to keep it close with Schiavone. The fast courts should help her win some easy service games and Schaivone has been crap for a while so there's a good chance she'll get opportunities. Three sets is a possibility and if that's the case then I should be home and hosed whoever wins. Na Li (-3.5 games) v Roberta Vinci @1.9 - 2.5 points Bit of a riskier one but I'm willing to take it at smaller stakes. Na Li hasn't been great since Oz but she's showing signs of getting back on form in time for Roland Garros. She has won both her matches in Madrid fairly easily and I think she can outhit Vinci today. I don't actually rate the Italian and think her game isn't good enough against the better players/stronger hitters. They've played once and Li won 6-4, 6-0. It was in 2006 so it's not really relevant but I guess it's worth pointing out. LLodra v Gimeno-Traver - Llodra 2-0 @3.15 - 2.5 points Another risk but I'm happy to take it at the price. I REALLY don't rate DGT and think it's a bit of a miracle that he's got this far. He's been lucky to face two of the tours clowns (Gasquet + Melzer) who couldn't close a door between them. Llodra hasn't been great but he's steady and looked comfortable in his wins over Querrey and Cipolla. He won't do anything flash but I think if he wins, he does it in straight sets rather than a drawn out affair. Might be wrong but worth a smallish play.

4/5 for yesterday, which isn't too bad. Llodra was a decent price and I don't really regret taking it. I also took the unders in the Murray game but because I was using betfair I could only get so much matched. I decided to get more on it by splitting my stake between unders and Murray 2-0. :wall Didn't lose anything but it was a disastrous decision.