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Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

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captaincool

captaincool

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Wow. I can't believe Berdych is 1.51 to beat Belllucci. I've gone in for this with double my usual max stake. Bellucci may have beaten Murray yesterday but that's nothing to get excited about. Murray beats himself at the moment. Berdych has been playing really well here and he looks like he's going to use the clay court swing to gain some ground on Ferrer and Soderling (maybe even Murray!). I can't see him making mistakes against Bellucci and that's the only way the Brazilian can win because he's just not good enough to live with top 10 players unless they implode.

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captaincool

captaincool

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) My other two bets for the day are similary unimaginative but I can't ignore them. Azarenka v Safarova under 19.5 games @1.72 - 5 points Azarenka is just too good for Safarova who makes a lot of mistakes. The Czech beat Jankovic but that doesn't say much. Jankovic is a clown who I'm very, very suspicious of, I'll never bet on a match involving her. Azarenka is 5-0 head-to-head against Safarova and the last two have been over fairly quickly. I expect a routine win here and wouldn't be surprised if the 4.5 game handicap got covered easily as well but this is a bit safer and odds (on betfair anyway) are better. Na Li to beat Mattek-Sands @1.57 - 10 points Not a great price but like Berdych this is one I can't ignore. Na Li is just a much better version of Mattek-Sands. The American struggled against Ivanovic in round one and beating Schiavone is better on paper than it actually is. She'll be out hit by Li who is also much quicker around the court. I'm not mucking about with handicaps here so it's just the straight win although I think Li will do it in straight sets, maybe 6-4, 7-5 or something like that.

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SayYesMoreInLife

SayYesMoreInLife

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Azerenka to beat Safarova 2-1 10/3 with PaddyPower Strength 8/10 Obviously both the more talented and consistently well proven player, however, Safarova is in hot form and the way she played when dispatching with her last 2 opponents, one being JJ (whom played pretty good herself) was a EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE. Safarova to beat Azernka 9/2 with PaddyPower Strength 7/10 This is to cover the Azernka in 3 sets bet, I feel Safarova could sneak this and I GENUINELY MEAN THAT, I've been watching both players intently and I really cannot separate them on clay.
1 set all and ding ding we have a winner.... Had I had money I'd have put 20 on both and made a neat profit, hopefully someone followed me on this tip?????? :dude
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captaincool

captaincool

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Wow. I can't believe Berdych is 1.51 to beat Belllucci. I've gone in for this with double my usual max stake. Bellucci may have beaten Murray yesterday but that's nothing to get excited about. Murray beats himself at the moment. Berdych has been playing really well here and he looks like he's going to use the clay court swing to gain some ground on Ferrer and Soderling (maybe even Murray!). I can't see him making mistakes against Bellucci and that's the only way the Brazilian can win because he's just not good enough to live with top 10 players unless they implode.
Absolute disaster. Berdych didn't do too much wrong but was just out hit by Bellucci. This bet was a lesson in why staking plans were invented. Azarenka unders is gone as well, looks like being a terrible day for me :$
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red_impact

red_impact

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Tomas Berdych v Thomaz Bellucci Bellucci +3.5 1.80 bet365 Now beware Berdych because now you will face the best player yet this week. Berdych can be in trouble if Bellucci keeps being consistent and it seems he is quite good now and this will be a very even contest. It was only a matter of time before Bellucci picked up some form again.
Strange to see you taking Berdych today.. :\
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red_impact

red_impact

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Rafael Nadal v Michael Llodra -7.5 Nadal 1.93 centrebet 6-2 6-2 will do it.. Roger Federer v Robin Söderling over 22.5 1.83 centrebet A tiebreak should be enough. David Ferrer v Novak Djokovic -4.0 1.83 Djokovic centrebet Ferrer has cooled down a bit and Djoker is cruising.

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Psycho

Psycho

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Julia Goerges vs Victoria Azarenka. Under 21.5 games. 1.90 @ Bwin (5/10) Goerges was very lucky in her 1/4final match against Pavlyuchenkova as the Russian girl played pathetic tennis and was not willing to attack. Azarenka will go for her shots and will attack, she never plays different. They have unfinished business as well. Goerges won via retirement against Azarenka in Stuttgart few weeks ago. Azarenka won the first set 6-4 before was forced to retire. She was leading 5-2 at one point in that set. For this match I pick unders as believe that Azarenka will be too strong and won't afford to play another three sets after doing that against Safarova. I think for this match the key will be Azarenka's better defensive game. Both can attack but Goerges lacks defensive game.

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red_impact

red_impact

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Rafael Nadal v Michael Llodra -7.5 Nadal 1.93 centrebet 6-2 6-2 will do it.. Roger Federer v Robin Söderling over 22.5 1.83 centrebet A tiebreak should be enough. David Ferrer v Novak Djokovic -4.0 1.83 Djokovic centrebet Ferrer has cooled down a bit and Djoker is cruising.
2/3.. I guess Djokovic wont make -4.0.
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Psycho

Psycho

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Roger Federer +4.5 AH v Rafael Nadal. 1.99 @ Pinnacle (6/10) It's ridiculous to offer odds like that. Massive bargain odds on Federer. Should be a very close match in my opinion and as tempting it is to have a crack at outrageous odds for a Swiss win will play safe and have just handicap which is... I mean LOL. OK, it's Rafa and it's clay but you have to laugh to see Nadal below 1.20 against Federer and the Swiss above 5. The surface in Madrid is pretty fast and Federer will like that. He's had his best results against Rafa on faster surfaces, especially indoors. He should get some cheap points on serve here and there and that will help him to keep this close. Madrid event is almost like indoors (main court) and could be if there's a rain. They have played in Madrid final for past two years and Federer has had very good results. He beat Rafa 6-4, 6-4 in 2009 final and lost 4-6, 6-7 last year. Roger has not been playing that good lately to be impressed with but I believe he can avoid a crushing here.

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Duckets

Duckets

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Two solid bets today azarenka and kvitova, azarenka looked very strong against safarova and should take a lot to stop her. Na li was lucky against mattek sands who was just extremely rubbish and handed the win to na li, Kvitova will a be much tougher proposition. I was tempted by the double but will keep it to singles.

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homunculus

homunculus

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Only two bets for me today, low odds, but IMO pretty safe Federer to bt Soderling @1.535 Pinnacle (2u) WIN Mattek-Sands (+ 1.5 sets ) to bt Li-Na @1.602 Pinnacle (1u) WIN
As expected. Today's semifinal I pass for WTA (I missed Azarenka match already, and Kvitova is totally unpredictable), so I will go for ATP only I agree with PSYCHO that Federer should not be that big dog and going for Federer (+ 5) to bt Nadal @1.694 Pinnacle Fedex can afford one one break a set no matter who will win the toss and adding Bellucci (+ 5) to bt Djokovic @2.09 Pinnacle Bellucci to bt Djokovic @8.01 Pinnacle (0.5 u) Bellucci did show that he is in form against Berdych, and surely will not be completely outplayed, not even by Djokovic. I am adding the outright as well, because Djoko looked ripe for the loss in last couple of matches, and it could as well come today. Follow at your own risk.
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red_impact

red_impact

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

As expected. Today's semifinal I pass for WTA (I missed Azarenka match already, and Kvitova is totally unpredictable), so I will go for ATP only I agree with PSYCHO that Federer should not be that big dog and going for Federer (+ 5) to bt Nadal @1.694 Pinnacle Fedex can afford one one break a set no matter who will win the toss and adding Bellucci (+ 5) to bt Djokovic @2.09 Pinnacle Bellucci to bt Djokovic @8.01 Pinnacle (0.5 u) Bellucci did show that he is in form against Berdych, and surely will not be completely outplayed, not even by Djokovic. I am adding the outright as well, because Djoko looked ripe for the loss in last couple of matches, and it could as well come today. Follow at your own risk.
Bellucci has shown he's in form this hole week if u have'nt noticed. It's not impossible for Djoker to lose this. But what's dissapointing is that so few here on the forum have backed Bellucci this week and you have'nt seen that he is in form.
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Whitelight

Whitelight

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Bellucci did show that he is in form against Berdych, and surely will not be completely outplayed, not even by Djokovic. I am adding the outright as well, because Djoko looked ripe for the loss in last couple of matches, and it could as well come today. Follow at your own risk.
You must be joking:dude D-Joker was never in danger to loose in his last couple of games.It's just not true. He was never broken in third set against Ferrer and he outplayed Ferrer big time in the same,last, set. So please,write and explain in which matches he was on the verge of defeat, and why.
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IAmGooner

IAmGooner

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Bellucci has been excellent. Problem will be replicating this level on consistent basis, like every week - we always knew he had the big explosive forehand but his backhand has been solid this week, serve aswell and most importantly he's playing big points pretty well. I guess we'll see in the coming weeks.

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homunculus

homunculus

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Federer (+ 5) to bt Nadal @1.694 Pinnacle LOSS Bellucci (+ 5) to bt Djokovic @2.09 Pinnacle PUSH Bellucci to bt Djokovic @8.01 Pinnacle (0.5 u) LOSS
Net loss today, somewhat reduced by hedging the outright on Bellucci. As for Fedex, I should have taken an 19.5 over, but I was afraid of 64 63 :-( Still, this has been an outrageously successfull week.
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valve

valve

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Monaco (vs Seppi) @ 1.5 (nordicbet, expekt) - stake 7/10 Monaco (vs Seppi) (2:0) @ 2.2 (expekt) - stake 3/10 Already down to 1.44 on bet365. Seppi had a couple of weeks of because of ankle injury and now plays his first match on clay this year. Anyone who had an ankle injury knows how hard is to rely fully on it for the first time after the injury. Clay with all the running and sliding puts even more stress on it than other surfaces. Seppi leads H2H here 2-0, but can't see him beating Monaco here. Also both haven't made some big impact this year. Expecting Seppi to struggle and Monaco to do this fairly easily.

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Bizjak

Bizjak

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) What planet is Djoko from? Insane tennis, enjoyed it as much as the Miami final, the matches that these two are giving us are a privilege to watch... I admit that before the match, I didn't have the courage to take Djokovic with +3,5, but still made some profit eventually by taking him to win the 2nd set @3.00 with small stakes. He already made me a bundle yesterday when i took him live.

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SayYesMoreInLife

SayYesMoreInLife

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Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

I would put Soderling on a massive handicap plus if I had the money to bet. Infact, I'd almost certainly go £20 on there being a tie break in the match. Both serves have looked in fine form, especially Soderling buying him out of trouble against Tsonga on numerous occasions, Federer isn't the best returner in the World and Soderling has had his number recently in the most recent past. Both players are way too solid and accomplished on their own serves and it would take something special, that certain spark of genius and creativity for either of them to break the other. I would sway more towards Federer getting that break, but for it to happen in BOTH SETS, is unlikely IMO. Tie Break in match @ odds of around 7/4 I'd be guessing.
Anyone follow? :dude
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